Dr. Huang accurately predicted last week in this webpage that US market
analysts, economist over-optimistic inflation, facing rate hike, 10 yr
bond yield soared from 3.7 to 4.17, Dow
correction, consolidation 9750 - 10550 and Nasdaq continue
consolidation at 1900- 2100 level. US job March creation 300,000 will peaking
out in summer due to tax and rate cuts, and inflationary, unsustainable after
summer jobless rate stay at 5.2- 5.6 %
CPI up 1.8 %, oil, commodity prices
soared to 20 year high raising inflation rate hike concern.
Dr. Huang also predicted 2000 bubble burst, 2001 recession, market crash, witnessed, visited by million global government,
central banks, banking finance, corporate , academics executives that US
and global high tech bubble burst, recession plunged 80 % to 1100, Dow Jones to
7450, European, Asian stocks plunged 50- 70 % during 2001-early 2003 and rebound
in the second quarter 2003
Dr. Huang accurately predicted again , global markets are over-optimistic over US second half
inflation, job creation, recovery will
be sustainable, pushed Dow to 10800, all overheated , As with overheated
commodity, oil, raw material bubbles ( reaching 19 year high) housing, auto,
energy sectors bubble , it will soared to new high in the summer led to US
weakening first quarter demand drag consumer confidence
to 85 ( accurately predicted
by Dr. Huang that over 100 was overheated should be in 80- 90) , plunging US
home sales and durable goods, semiconductors B/B ratio,
drag Dow will be traded 9740-
10550, Nasdaq
: 1900-to 2100, Asian, European, South
American stock markets are all overheated for consolidation as uneven economic
development, Japan last quarter 7 % GDP growth was benefits by 44 % growth in
China export ( as China enjoyed 10.7 % GDP growth 4Q 2002, which is not
sustainable as China tightening its credit this year . However US additional tax refund
this summer will fuel consumer spending, and
pushing gasoline, metal, commodity prices and CPI to new high of 2.5 % ( already
up 0.5 % in Jan . and March oil at 38) ready to burst
while the rest of the manufacturing facing deflation core inflation at 1.1 % due to over capacity
resulted price war.
China money supply still stay 19.4% in Feb. as it's inter bank rate still at
2.2 %, it must face additional tightening, rate must up to 3 % in the month
ahead following commodity and oil prices predicted Shanghai A facing tough
resistance above 1700, Taiwan index break 7,000 by election
speculation bubble are overheated. will be traded 5500- 6000-
A. Top US Old Economy, Dow stocks NYSE Dow Jones blue chip old economy stocks:
stock Name : earning/ margin ,
near trem trading range
IBM
competition , pricing pressure
90- 97
Lucent
no sight in profit turnaround 3.5-
4.2
AT & T
rate cutting due competition
18-
22
TXN
slowdown in sales profit growth
25-32
EMC
no sight in profit turnaround
10-14
BRCM
slowdown in sales profit growth
35-45
MU
slowdown in sales profit growth
15-18
AMD
price cutting
12-16
MRK
lack new drug lead to growth slowdown 45- 54
BMY
lack new drug lead to growth slowdown 25-35
NOK
slowdown in sales profit growth
15-20
Nortel
huge loss due to acquisition oversupply
5- 9
Corning
oversupply
10- 14
JPM Chase Mahhaten Enron loan loss
35- 49
Citigroup(C) sufferd by Argentina loan loss
44- 49-
MOT
prices cutting
15- 20
Wal-Mart
competition, discount
55- 63
Int'l Paper (IP) profit soared but low margin
29- 35
Alcoa( AA) soared prices but low margin
32- 38 .
Home Depot(HD) slowdown in consumer demand
25-35
GE
facing slowdown
27- 34
PG
steady growth, facing slowdown
90-105
HPQ
merger integration low margin
20-25
Pfizer lack new drug
lead to growth slowdown
31- 40
GM
price cutting
40 -48
XOM ExxonMobil improved
profit 38 -45-
MER
pickup in trade
52 -57
B. Top US New economy, Nasdaq IT and Biotech shares
stock Name :
earning/ margin ,
near term trading range
CSCO
slow recovery
20- 25-
INTC
high growth potential
25-35
AMAT
slowdown growth potential
20- 25
MSFT
slowdown in sales profit growth
22- 27
SUNW(Sun Micro slow recovery
4- 6
JDSU Uniphase
oversupply
3- 5
Yahoo
moderate recovery
35- 45
CIEN
over capacity
4 - 6
ORCL
slowdown in data base, sharp competition 10-15
PSFT
slowdown in data base, sharp competition
15--29
SEBL
slowdown in data base, sharp competition
5- 12
AAPL(Apple) Slowdown in PC sales
19-25
YHOO
Strong advertisement demand
50- 60
DELL
Slowdown in PC sales
28-35
JNPR
over capacity, competition
22 -26
AWE
over capacity, competition
12-15
NXTL
over capacity, competition
25-30
JNPR
over capacity, competition
21-26
CMCSK
over capacity, competition
24-32
Global ADR OSA Overheated too, also facing consolidation, will peaking out in summer
Global stock index impact on its
hot stocks
Click for daily hot stock trading strategy
Click for EURO ADR strategy
Click for Japan ADR strategy
Click for Global ADR shares
Global Currencies
: Accurately predicted Yen plunged
to 112 due to soaring CPI ( not terrorist alert )
Euro currency, overvalued at 1.30, facing bubble burst as German, France
facing slowdown due to Euro up 30 % last year., Euro will be traded 1.18- 1.26,
Euro did test 1.20 last week
ECB will not raise interest rate, it may cut rate to stimulate Euro
economy , due to strong Euro cut oil, commodity prices related asset bubble
inflation Jan. inflation rate drop to 1.6 %
Dr. Warren Huang
accurately predicted US Fed will raise fund rate in June due to soaring stocks,
properties, oil prices, which will take US stocks and Asian stock prices into minimum 15 %
correction, and some internet , biotech stock with 50 % corrections, Dow Jones will test
10,000, Nasdaq test 3000, Henseng test 15000, Nikkei test 18,000, Taiwan index down to
8500 with asset bubble simulation models on Macao's central bank
governors conference, Taipei's Pacific Basin finance conference and Washington DC NASD
conferences.during April and May , June, Dec. 1999.
These deterministic, dynamic simulation of last 20 years global asset
prices, and economy boom and bust of the asset bubble vicious cycle of excessive monetary
policy, low interest rate induced sustained long term bull markets stocks prices gain
caused consumer and business spending in real estate properties pushed soaring housing
prices and rent. And deficit spending (negative saving) in stock markets, pushed the stock
s even higher, until abrupt reverse of consumer and investor confidence --the bubble
burst- plunge of stocks and properties prices as it happened in US, Japan, Taiwan in 1980,
1987, 1990, energy crisis, EURO 1992 currency crisis, 1994 China runaway inflation, 1995
Mexico crisis, 1997-98 ASEAN, Japan, Korea, Russia, Brazil currency crisis, all caused by
overpriced stock prices due to excess monetary policy and high GDP growth
USA
China Thailand
Taiwan Japan
Hong Kong Korea
Singapore Indonesia
Canada Mexico