Innovation Breakthrough in  Wall Street Proactive Structural Global Strategic Investment  Research : Macro , Value Investing by Proactive Structural Dynamic US/Global  Finance, Stocks Commodities, ETF,  ADR Markets Prices Mechanism OSA  Forecasts: integrating into daily CFA financial analysis and FRM ( Financial Risk Management ) decision making
Top down Macro investing through Two master hands controlling global macro, financial economics, industrial economic supply, demand, corporate earning, stock prices
  by
OSA pioneer Dr. Warren Huang


Double dip recession worry, credit downgrade send Wall Street Continue slump to test new lows

 2011 second half global stock index futures OSA

Dow Junes will be return to consolidate in 10000- 11000 in 3Q and to 9000- 9900 4Q 2011  , NASDAQ test 2200- 2400 in 3Q, 2000- 2200 in 4Q S&P test 1000- 1100  in 3 Q, 900- 1000 in 4Q 2011, London Financial Times index test 4500- 5200  3Q , 4000- 4500 in 4Q  , DAX test 5000-5500 in 3 Q , 4500- 5000 in 4!-  second financial crisis dip triggered by Greek and PIGS countries debt crisis,  inflation control, US double dip recession and  China/Asian slowdown,


Book your  2011  Taipei, Hong Kong, Shanghai Proactive Structural
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Asian equities, housing currency, commodities prices 2011  forecast workshops


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Wall Street Proactive Structural Dynamic Strategic Equity Pricing Market Research, 

 Proactive US Capital Markets global stocks, ETF, ADR Structural Dynamic Operations Simulation Analysis,  Real Time Stock Prices Mechanism Forecast, Tracking global central banks monetary, economic, fiscal policy, WTO policy impact on macro economic inflation, daily interest rate, currency, commodities futures prices, 20 industrial sectors supply demand impact on corporate profit earning, stock prices, ETF, global ADR performances,  stay years, months ahead of the emerging bull, bear market trend

  • I predicted on Wall Street Journal real time economic blog last Oct. that US excessive rate cuts, liquidity and QE2 created stock, commodity prices bubble will not boost housing market and real economy, it only further inflate the personal business, government debt. As consumer spending decline in June due to soaring energy, food cost, GDP dorp to 0.4 %, in Q1, and 1.3 % in Q2,ISM plunge to 50.5,The new debt ceiling will lead to further spending cuts, with less economic stimulus, and hard to justify any further QE ahead,, DOw Jone retest 11,000, SP 500 retest 1150 , NASDAQ retest 2500 China, Global rate hikes responding to soaring commodities, food, energy prices and excessive, ECB deb crisis led to housing, economic into doube dip recession liquidity details on http://www.osawh.com/recession.html

 OSA  Global Strategic Investment Research delivers maximize sustainable risk adjusted profit strategy  to HNW and institutional investors  in the equity, fixed income, currency and commodities markets. provide global country, industry, company specific top down proactive strategic structural decision models, integrating macro, financial and industrial economics into  portfolio strategy, derivatives and equity and credit securities asset pricing  mechanism.:

  • Provide industry, company specific top down strategic analysis and bottom up implementation
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    2011-12  Global  QE2, monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact Interest rate, Daily Dollar, Oil, Gold, Metals and Downstream Stocks Futures, Option Prices Market Forces Mechanism Simulation,  Forecast, Risks Hedging 5 Day in-house Workshop

    Commodity Daily Prices Market forces prices mechanism for commodity future prices movement OSA and forecasts

        commodity name market market  demand , QE2 impact / early warning                                                                       preQE2             Peak QE2 curent Post QE2 trading range
        CRB index NYFE QE2 consumer demand rebound and weak dollar will support CRB rebound             290                   380   320- 360
        10 yr T-bond yld CBOT consumer demand rebound and falling dollar will drive inflation, rate higher           2.40                  3.60 2.60- 3.00
        10 interest swap CBOT soaring commodity, oil , asset bubbles drive yield higher 1.10- 2.20
        Energy/ oils futures prices
        Nymex lt oil NYMEX  summer consumer demand, weak dollar push oil price,  post QE2 correction          88                    115 66- 86
        Brent oil LO  consumer demand, plunging dollar drive oil price  post QE2 correction            r     90                     126 79 - 116
        Nat gas NYMEX    falling consumer demand, strong dollar drag  gas price  will rebound in winter        4.2                     4.8                         35  - 4.9
        Heating oil NYMEX  falling consumer demand, strong dollar drag  oil price   will rebound in winter     230                    360                          230-299
        R. gasoline NYMEX  summer consumer demand, weak dollar drag  oil price will drop post QE2              230                    399   234- 288
        Propane NYMEX  falling consumer demand, strong dollar drag  oil price will rebound in winter 0.8- 1.10
        gas oil NYMEX  falling consumer demand, strong dollar drag  oil price will rebound in winter 500-660
        Precious and Heavy  Metals Futures prices
        Gold NYMEX inflation pressure   demand, weak dollar push gold price will drop in post QE2       1380                 1575                  1650- 1950
        Silver Nymex Post QE2 will drag silver price to pre QE2                                                                    30                     48               30- 38
        Platinum NYMEX falling consumer demand, strong dollar drag  plt price in post QE2                         1700                  1860                         1630- 1800
        copper NYMEX  falling housing consumer demand, strong dollar drag  copper price in post QE2     3.75                  4.75                         3.25- 4.20
        Aluminum NYMEX  falling consumer demand, strong dollar drag  oil price will rebound in winter 0.66- 0.95
        ¡¡ ¡¡  Fibers/ wood  
        Cotton NCE Improved supply,  strong dollar drag  cotton drag cotton price to pre QE2 level            110                   220             90- 120
        Lumber falling housing demand, housing price drag lumber below QE2 price                      280                  340                           200- 240
         
        wheat CBOT will give up all gain to pre QE2 level                                                                         750                  920                         600- 770
        corn CBOT  following oil price in energy demand                                                                       550                  760  600-750
        soybean CBOT   give up all its gain to pre QE2 level                                                                        1250               1475   1200- 1490
        Sugar CBOT   give up all its gain to pre QE2 level                                                                 22                     30              22-28
        rice CBOT     give up all its gain to pre QE2 level                                                                12                    17 13- 17

     Beware of  excessive liquidity, from stimulus, bailout resulted equities, oil, gold , commodity , housing , debt  asset price bubble burst due to China housing price bubble and inflation control , US debt crisis related downgrade and Asian exit strategy rate hike fighting inflation lead to weakness in business and consumer demand resulted double  dip recession, while complicated by excessive liquidity bubble resulted  global sovereign debt bubble burst crisis  from US downgrade, PIGS (Greece, Spain, UK, Portugee  se , Italy)) resulted commodity prices bubble lead to inflationary pressure and credit tightening in exit strategy.
          2011  currency, oil, gasoline, heating oil, Natural gas prices forecast:
    US dollar steady in current  narrow range against  major currency  despite QE2,  credit downgrade only depreciate against Asian currency with good trade surplus.
    1.35- 1.45 EURO, 1.58- 1.64 pound and 70- 80 Yen
    China RMB will stay  in narrow range 6.30- 6.450
    Australia 0.95- 0.99, China RMB 6.3- 6.45, Singapore 1.120- 1.25  Taiwan NT 27.5- 29.5  Won 1025- 1100  Indonesia  8300- 8500  India 42.5- 45   Malaysia  3.00- 3.20   Thailand 28.5- 30
    China credit tightening housing price bubble and inflation control,  in 2011 to reduce GDP from 12 % to 8 %, M2 money supply growth from 28 to 13 % in 2011 and US exit strategy fighting facing double dip recession, with near zero interest rte till 2013 will cut oil demand and  lead to oil price peaking out in summer facing bubble bursst 2011
     Oil price will be peaking out 66- 86 after QE2 ended in 2011    3 Q  and 71- 89 in 4 Q   2011
    Gasoline price will be   260- 280 in  3 Q, 190- 220 in 4Q , 2011
    heating oil price will be 210- 294 3 Q, 250- 280 in 4Q   2011
    Natural   price will be rebound from 3.5-4.50   3 Q, 5.0- 6.  in 4Q   2011
    Gold price will be rebound from 1650- 1910 in 3 Q,  1600- 1940  in 4Q   2011 due to recession
    US dollar decline due to downgrade but   continued debt crisis in PIGS and UK  support US dollar  1.35- 1.45  EURO ,in 3 Q, 1.25- 1.42 in 4 Q   2011
    and 1.55- 1.69   pound in   in 3, 4 Q 2011
    US dollar 70- 80    3Q,  70- 76-   in   4 Q, 2011 due to Japan weak recession recovery, US double dip  recession
    China stable, consistent , gradual independent RMB policy  will lead RMB appreciate in 4 % range to 6.3- 6.45 against US dollar and basket of money ( US, Yen, EURO)
    predicted Feb. March 2009 in Hong Kong , Pudong investment summit forum on
    Proactive Structural Dynamic Demand Side future, cash Oil Price Simulation :  US tax rebate in 2009 and China economic stimulus package

Proactive Structural Dynamic Simulation of Global Stock Indices
 Global Hot stocks  
     Global ETF         Global ADR     Global  IPO

 Comment by Warren Huang Market Beat Wall Street Journal- November 6, 2008 at 2:46 pm

Wall Street banking, finance investment banks proprietary trading executives still using 30 year classical statistical, probabilistic
financial decision and credit rating method, betting on the wrong side of economy and market prices, ignoring my warning on this blog and March in Pudong China fund worlds 2008 conference that US housing price slump continue into 2009, drag global economy into recession and stock market 50- 70 % correction., trillion dollar loss.
These proprietory will continue betting on the wrong side ot investment in current and future recovery ( speculate banking fiancne, bottoming
out and election, yearend rally to 9600, will give all its gain to 8000- 8500 due to global recession fear details on www.osawh.com/recession.html
www.osawh.com/SP500.htm

friendly link to www.derivativesportal.org  of  Eurex and IMC

Comment by Warren Huang , Wall Street Journal Real Time Economics Blog- October 17, 2008 at 10:05 pm

US Sept. consumer confidence plunge to 38, ISM manufacturing purchaser index plunge to 43 and jobless rate to 6.1 % and Dow Jones plunged 40  % third quarter GDP contract 0.3 %core inflation up 2.9 %, warned, predict by me Sept. 2007 on this blog that US  housing slump continue , will entering double dip inflationary recession 3Q 2008 despite rate cuts, stimulus, bail out plan and extends into deeper recession contracting by 6 % in 2Q 2008 and 1Q 2009,  resulted by  full impact on business, consumer spending decline due to 6.5 % jobless and 20 % housing slump, 40 % stocks market loss
  The real causes of current mortgage, credit, financial crisis and recession are due to poor financial, monetary policy decision modeling in asset pricing and  risks valuation mechanism, MBS, CDO , the burst of super housing, commodities asset price bubbles caused by 7 year longest expansive excessive money supply, easy credit policy .
Global central banks, financial markets financial decision still rely on 30 year old probabilistic, statistical Capital Market Asset Pricing (CAPM) and macroeconomic modeling, ignoring asset price impact on inflation and financial, housing , MBS, CDO prices.

Predicted by Dr. Warren Huang, pioneer of Proactive Global Asset Pricing Mechanism , June 2007 , Beijing, Wall Street Journal Economic, Market Beat
 Blog Aug.2007   and March 5, 2008 Pudong, China Fund World 2008 to 200 global top investment banking, fund managers that
Global Housing price bubble burst, prices plunge 30 % into 2009, drag  global economy into recession and stocks bond, oil,  commodities, metals ,Derivative Asset Prices Bubbles Burst with 50 % Price Correction Cause Credit, Financial Crisis and Economic Recession, ( As Dow Jones, SP 500, NASDAQ drag global stock indices plunged more than 50 % into 2002 recession low ,( Dow Jones  after current consolidate in 8000- 9000 will test 7000, NASDAQ test 1250, S&P test 700 low, oil price plunged 50 % from 147 to60£¬Gas oil from1300 to 600 , corn  from 800 to 350, cotton from 80 to 44 as global economy  enter deep recession by year  end, despite US 700 billion  and ECB 2.3 trillion bail out
to stabilize credit crisis

details on www.osawh.com/Fedcrisab.htm  www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm www.osawh.com/commody.html www.osawh.com/centmaf.html

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Daily most active Dow and Nasdaq  hot stocks
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Daily Nasdaq  and global IT
Info-100            and    Silicon -100 
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Monetary macroeconomic policy  Financial Economics  Industrial Economy  Regional Economy  Investment banking, Capital Markets Asset Prices, Global Trade Economics
 
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The only and most reliable structural dynamic deterministic decision simulators tracking, forecasts months ahead last 20 years global economic, financial crisis, asset bubble, and daily capital market asset  ( interest rate, currency, commodity, equities, stocks, bond futures, derivatives ) prices market forces mechanism, avoided trillion dollar market loss and billion dollar supply chain cost due to current probabilistic models based ,  speculation over daily economic, business news, technical charting market momentum based capital market asset prices and risks models ( CAPM ), presented to  24 US, European, China, Taiwan , Asian central bank governors, financial risks and wealth  management , futures, derivatives prices forecasts conferences and on this website www.osawh.com  tracking daily results , visited by million global government, central banks, banking, finance, corporate executives universities  since 1998
.
Global/US central bank monetary policy, Macroeconomic Control Tracking, Forecasts:
 
US macroeconomic, inflation control  tracking, 2005 forecasts:
Dr. Huang spoke to Euro-events Singapore , Shanghai, Beijin Nov.  2003  Asian/China Finance, Capital Markets conferences lecture to 2000 QFII, QDII mutual fund managers and  China Economist annual meeting Dec. 20 and San Francisco Silicon Valley finance radio and global finance investment seminar May7,  8, 15,2004 and   www.osawh.com   website  warning  g
lobal central banks excessive rate, tax cuts, ignoring Dr. Huang's warning on this website and global conferences, underestimated global economic recovery resulted inflation,  excessive demand for housing, manufacturing, auto pushed oil, metal constructional materials prices to new high and rising cost, prices to 5000 upstream /downstream raw materials, products  due to US  excessive rate, tax cuts, Fed raising rate , too little, too late , China delaying  rate hike to effectively cut market demand led to China Sept.  2004 CPI inflation up 5.2 % again and third quarter GDP growth still at 9.1 % due to increasing   business ( up 28 %)and consumer demand up 14 % ,will facing soaring inflation  from current 5.3 % to 6.6 %, US will facing inflation soared to 5 % in winter peaking holiday demand season .  US Greenspan, global economists,  market analysts over optimistic  over oil, commodity weakness and underestimate inflationary pressure  and 10 yr. bond yield too low , long interest rate has to go up to 5 % in the month ahead due to excessive business and consumer spending twin growth engine will drive second half 2004  and 2005 economic recovery, profit growth, bull market rally, Oct job creation of 337000, will repeating March ,, 2004 , 2005 growth will be below 112,000 , peaking out as entering peak holiday season,  underestimated on the impact of US dollar depreciation, excessive rate, tax cuts , 48 trillion dollar  housing, equities wealth effect resulted excessive consumer, business demand, NAPM peaking out in the second quarter at 66 ( already plunged to 56 as predicted ) driving soaring oil, commodities, metals asset prices bubble reaching 23 year high in March, May  and extending into the rest of  2004 and repeating in 2005 with  US trade deficit soared to  55- 60  billion and inflation, facing credit tightening, rate hikes after May, Aug. Sept , Nov 2004 and extending well into summer 2005, profit , productivity growth , consumer confidence , business spending,  peaking out,  economic leading indicators declined for 6 months ,business  facing profit  squeeze in  second half  2004, China and US, Global stocks bull markets are over, entering bear market consolidation.   US High tech, finance, housing, retails, auto share will give up  all its 2004 gain plunge  30-50 % and  trillion dollar loss in bond and stock markets repeating 1995 and 2000  and trillion dollar profits in oil, commodity futures investments
US inflation rate at  3.2 % in 2004, with business  spending up 14 %, consumer confidence above 100 ISM at 66 are inflationary, facing excessive inventory built up,  oil,
soared to 56 currently consolidate in 47-50  cold winter will drive heating oil,  and oil price rebound to 55-60  gas to 9.0 and metals to  new high  in summer 2005  will drive up 20 sectors 5000 products costs and prices, inflation will be back to 3.5 % in spring, more rate hikes are on its way to cool off the economy, 10 year bond yield is too low, will return to 4.3- 5.0 %
Wall Street Market Research OSA Market Tracking, Forecasts: Global Capital Markets Asset prices tracking, forecasts:

Dr. Huang lectured to 50 European, Asian, Malaysian central banks, banking, finance executives Kuala Lumpur, Sept. 30, 2002 predicted that oil prices soared to 43, Dow Jones retest 7500 Nasdaq 1250, March 2003 on Asian Business Forum.  
He lectured Nov. 2003 lectured to Euro-events Singapore http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/ photos 1, 2, 3 lecture ppt  , Shanghai, Beijin Nov. Asian/China finance, capital Markets conferences,  www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm2003   picture  2  and to China economists meeting Fudan University, Shanghai , Dec. over 2000 QFII/QDII executives, identify housing, equities wealth effect bubbles   month ahead, investment opportunities in China petrochemical upstream/downstream, steel, aluminum, telecommunications ADR , Shanghai A and Hong Kong H shares, mutual fund up 80 %  IPO shares up 150 % and early warning for asset bubbles in oil, commodities prices reaching 23  year peak( recommended invested in future, derivatives gained 5000 %) in March 2004, will drive China CPI to 5 %, with steel, cement over-invested 170 % and energy shortage will lead to further credit tightening, accurately predicted China Peoples bank raise bank reserve ratio 0.5 % to 7.5 % open market inter-bank rate (Chibor)must stay above 3.% to remove 110 billion from the capital markets,  US CPI to 5.1 %, core inflation to 2.7 % in the summer , overoptimistic over US economic recovery and job creation,( despite March strong 300,000  new jobs can not sustainable after June quarter tax rebate is over ( June job creation already down to 32,000) and  inflation outlook may lead to rate hike after May and summer lead to serious bond market plunge (US lose  380 billion dollar, China lose 270 billion) housing bubble repeat 1995 bond market crash and 2000 election bubble and global IT and blue chips banking shares will peaking out   facing  correction in the month ahead,
 
 
2005 Oil, commodity prices forecast
 Market speculators using Oil prices plunged from 55 to 40 and back to 56, and Intel profit , over-optimistic outlook, Apple profit up 70 % due to i-Pod new product innovation Dell 29 % profit gain to push Dell and High tech, and  IBM PC sale to China, Oracle PeopleSoft 10 billion dollar merger facing margin squeeze and Sprint Nextel 35 billion dollar merger all facing sharp competition, to speculate blue chips and Nasdaq will give up all its recent gain is premature ,oil price  rebound to 55 in March accurately predict by Dr. Huang in Beijing Feb 23, 2005 will challenge 60 due to OPEC one million production cut and winter and summer peak demand, and challenge 55- 60 in summer 2005.

2005 High tech stock performance forecasts

US and global IT ( from chips, PC, to telecommunication, entertaining) demand growth will be slow down to 6 % , facing profit squeeze, stock prices retreat 30 -50 %, with China internet stocks bubble burst, plunge 70- 80 % . Dell profit decline continue,  facing profit squeeze, pricing cutting from HP, Apple sales and general economic slowdown, Dell stock will plunge below 35, IBM test 85. HP profit, stock prices continue drag by PC operation (as warned by Dr. Huang on this website) speculating on HP CEO change will not improve near term profit, stock performance, only smart PC can lead to breakthroughGlobal IPO  will facing 30-50 % correction  as 
 Google enjoyed 7 fold earning increase, it has PE of 145, and profit margin of only 12 %, stock price at 215 is extremely overpriced, repeating Yahoo of 2000, will  plunged from 215 to 100-120, any attempt using IPO
and  PG and Gillette merger to speculate market rebound will be followed by sell off bear trap   avoided trillion dollar bond, equities, derivative market loss made trillion dollar oil, commodity derivatives market profit.
US  dollar weakness continue in 2005:  Soaring import leading to record US trade deficit of 655 billion in summer will  drag US dollar into new low continue into this year Euro : 1.29- 1.45 , Yen 95- 102, 
Global stocks bear market correction into 2005, give up most of 2004 gain

 US, Asian and European stocks  follow US stocks  rebound currently will gave up all this year gain
 China and US economic slowdown will drag global economic growth, stocks  ( including IPO )facing  30-50 % bear market  correction consolidation   Dow will be traded 9750- 10900, Nasdaq  1750- 2100 , S&P 1060-1200, US 10 year bond yield will be back to 4.4- 4.9 in March 2005. Taiwan index post election bubble burst from 7200 to  5000- 6100, Henseng 12500- 14200, Nikkei 10000- 11900, China credit tightening continue. Shanghai A 1150- 1300, Shenzhen 2750- 3350,  consolidation Hundred thousands integrated, global  structural, dynamics, deterministic proprietary model simulators first time 
 
China Macroeconomic control tracking, forecasts: China started second phase credit tightening, rate hike series begin.
China finally raised prime rate by 0.27, to cool off the asset bubble, with structural rate hike, floating loan upper limit from  5.6- 12.5 %, Oct. 28, 2004, accurately  predicted by  Dr. Huang last Nov. 2003 in Euro-events Singapore, Shanghai, Beijing, Asian/China finance, capital market conference and May 8, 15, 2004 to San Francisco Silicon Valley Finance radio and Global Finance Forum, Hi tech investment seminar, Silicon Valley and on this website, visited by million global central banks, banking, finance, corporate executives.
Global central banks ignoring Dr. Huang's warning on this website and global conferences, underestimated global economic recovery resulted inflation, demand for housing, manufacturing, auto pushed oil, metal prices to new high and rising cost, prices to 5000 upstream /downstream raw materials, products resulted US Fed raising rate , too little, too late, China delaying  rate hike to effectively cut market demand led to China Sept.  CPI inflation up 5.2 % again and 2004 GDP growth still at 9.4 % due to increasing   business ( up 28 %)and consumer demand up 14 % ,will facing soaring inflation  from current 3.9 % to 5.6 % in winter peaking holiday demand season and summer 2005.   Despite  China Peoples Bank raised deposit ratio by 1.5 % and cutting capital investment in steel, cement, aluminum, auto loan lead to  some progress macroeconomic control with Sept. money supply growth at 13.6 % (below 17 % target), auto sales up only  10 %, asset prices, inflation  followed soaring oil price to 55,  all time high metal prices   coastal cities Beijin, Shanghai GDP up 14 %) from year ago, wealth effect, FDI drive national  housing prices up 14.8 % ( 2750 ) and 38 % for coastal cities Shanghai, Ninbo,, Guanzhou .  retail sale up 13.2, China 2004 GDP up 9.2 % far above 7 % target, medium, long term loan up 25.4  %, inflation up 4 % . China economy  is far from soft landing, will have very tough year to cut domestic demand and GDP below 8 % and  call the need for further  interest rate hike in summer and raise deposit reserve ratio   to cool off the consumer and housing demand in winter holiday peak and summer  season .
 As. China Peoples bank issue 100 billion notes to cut 100 billion from the money market avoid overheated Chinese New Year demand further drive up inflation.  soaring China, US demand pushing China steel, cement, aluminum investment (over 120 %), coal, energy shortage,  stocks prices  rebound from 1250  to 1470 speculating over Premier's  915 statement over stock market stability is overheated ( accurately predicted by Dr. Huang on this website and already retreat to 1150) market is over, continue bear market technical rebound ( within 20 %  and consolidation, with Shanghai A testing 1150- 1300, IPO and newly listed small cap shares plunge 30-50 % with most testing its IPO price, low prices blue chips shares like Sinopec, Unicom will lead future rebound 20  %. , This supply side tightening are insufficient to cool  the uneven economic overheating,  as China raised key interest rate by 0.27 % and  implement  structural  rate hikes in late Oct. as predicted by Dr. Huang to cut off excessive consumer , business demand in housing, construction materials, auto and retails  demand . to cool off soaring housing and metals prices,  and  serious energy , electricity , coal shortage, and transportation, communication bottleneck. 
China benefited by lower food price, Jan CPI drop to 1.9 %  from Oct. 5.2 %, however rising heating oil, gas , coal, water, service charge ( oil prices will rebound 55 and feedstock price, falling dollar will push US and global inflation  in the winter heating demand drive China Feb inflation to 3.9 %
China has hard time  achieve soft landing in the second half 2005, as China Peoples Bank has to cut money supply growth below 10 % and GDP below 8 %. and fixed investment growth below 15 %  Dr. Huang also predicted  Oct. 1994 to China Wuhan securities news, Wangguo,  Kuotai  securities investors, BeijingChina Financial Times, China macroeconomic control will be soft-landing 1996, Shanghai A will be traded  between 600- 800 during 1994- 1996 He recommended that China stocks will be very attractive to QFII in the new Millennium

Global central banks, economist, financial market , industrial sectors analysts, CEO  ignoring ,Dr. Huang photo  warning to ECB, JP Morgan in Rome, China Peoples Bank governor Dai central bank governors conference in Macao, Taiwan central bank governor Asian Pacific conference Taipei, APEC finance Thailand prime minister, ASEAN central bank governors conferences in Bangkok, US Fed  governors , Washington Area, NASD finance conferences 1998-2000 on  IT asset bubble bursts

 Hundred thousands integrated, global  structural, dynamics, deterministic proprietary model simulators
first time 
 
CLick for Sample OSA Simulation Charts tracking forecasts 1-3 month ahead monetary policy on daily
A. Consumer spending, Fed Fund rate, Dollar exchange rate impact on Dow Jones Index
B. Japan money supply growth, Yen exchange rate, Dow Jones impact on Tokyo Nikkei index
C. EU  money supply growth, EURO exchange rate, Dow Jones impact on German DAX index
D. Hong Kong money supply growth, interbank rate, Dow Jones impact on Henseng index
have been developed, implemented supporting the following  goal, mission, performance oriented  outsourcing strategic centers corporate/ memberships/ workshops   tailored to global government, enterprises, banking, finances enterprises  board members, think tank and executives in integrating into the global markets decision needs:Global central banks, economist, financial market , industrial sectors analysts, CEO  ignoring ,Dr. Huang photo  warning to ECB, JP Morgan in Rome, China Peoples Bank governor Dai central bank governors conference in Macao, Taiwan central bank governor Asian Pacific conference Taipei, APEC finance Thailand prime minister, ASEAN central bank governors conferences in Bangkok, US Fed  governors , Washington Area, NASD finance conferences 1998-2000 on  IT asset bubble bursts
 
CLick for Sample OSA Simulation Charts tracking forecasts 1-3 month ahead monetary, economic  policy on daily
A. Consumer spending, Fed Fund rate, Dollar exchange rate impact on Dow Jones Index
B. Japan money supply growth, Yen exchange rate, Dow Jones impact on Tokyo Nikkei index
C. EU  money supply growth, EURO exchange rate, Dow Jones impact on German DAX index
D. Hong Kong money supply growth, interbank rate, Dow Jones impact on Henseng index
have been developed, implemented supporting the following  goal, mission, performance oriented  outsourcing strategic centers corporate/ memberships/ workshops   tailored to global government, enterprises, banking, finances enterprises  board members, think tank and executives in integrating into the global markets decision needs:
Daily Global Capital Stock Markets Tracking, Market Forces Prices Mechanism Simulation, Forecasts
When you have Dr. Huang's two OSA master hands you are in good hands for tracking , forecasts last 20 years  global central banks monetary, economic, fiscal, WTO policy impact on macro-economic control , prices stability and capital stocks, bond, oil, metals, commodity future, derivatives market prices market forces prices mechanism, investors sentiment simulation, forecasts , value investing strategy, wealth management,  risk hedging  That's what, why, how he has been lecture to 24 global central bank governors, wealth management, financial market risk management conferences and millions global central banks, banking, finance, corporate CEO, executives on this website  since 1998 ,  over 30 million China, Taiwan, Asian, US , ASEAN, European executives, investors on TV, radio programs and thousands workshops since 1985


30 years helping 78 countries multinationals oils and downstream fighting soaring oil, feedstock cost, maximizing sustainable profits and market shares.
Operations Simulation Analysis Forecast Emerging Bull/Bear Markets Trend Month Ahead
Tracking, simulate Global monetary, economic, fiscal, WTO policy, investors, consumer confidence, technical charting impact on last 20 years daily global financial market interest rate, currency, stock indices , commodity, oil, bond futures, 20 industrial sectors 5000 products, demand, listed stocks earning, prices performances:
US Macro-Economy, Finance, Capital Stocks Market Tracking, Forecasts:
Dr. Warren Huang CV  accurately predicted May 8, 15, 2004 to US Silicon Valley investors, radio station , and  www.osawh.com website that excessive rate and tax cuts resulted manufacturing and consumer demand pushing US Oil prices  soared above 54, gold prices rebound from 360 to 425,  metals  prices reaching 23 year high, will follow economic recovery and not transitory, facing series rate hike in summer, US and global economy facing slowdown, profit squeeze,  stock markets facing bear market correction,  Dow consolidate 9500- 10300, Nasdaq 1650-1960 with stocks down 30- 50 %from  their peak
 
Greater China Macro-Economy, Finance, Capital Stocks Market Tracking, Forecasts:
 
Dr. Warren Huang CV  accurately predicted Nov , 2003 on China finance, Capital Stock Markets conferences,  www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm   picture  2  and to China economists meeting Fudan University, Shanghai , Dec. over 2000 QFII/QDII executives China continue facing credit tightening, continue well into 2005 stock markets facing bear market 30- 50 % correction, Shanghai A test 1250-1300, rebound to 1500 and consolidation.
 

 
Monetary policy impact on macroeconomic control, Asset Prices, Bubble Simulation, early warning  :
 Shanghai/Shenzhen A/B/IPO Chinese Edition China small medium  cap   ADR    mutual fund/ commodity/ bond
 Taiwan ADR, most actives Chinese Edition                Hong Kong Blue Chips H  Red Chips
  Chinese Edition

Asian Economy/Capital Markets  Tracking, Forecasts  Asian Financial Crisis  Industrial Finance
Japan  China  Korea  Taiwan  Singapore   Hong Kong   India   Malaysia

 Dr. Warren Huang CV  accurately predicted  Nov. 5, 2003 in Singapore Euro-events Asian Finance, Capital stock market conferences http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/ photos 1, 2, 3 lecture ppt   Asian stocks following US
stocks into consolidation
:
Goal, mission, performance oriented OSA teams developing, implementing ,predicting  unpredictable, unknown futures in global economic, financial, currency, energy crisis, risks  government, banking, finance, enterprises R&D innovation business process review procedures, methodology, proactive strategic decisions Operations Simulation Analysis, Forecasting maximize profits and productivity.
OSA Goal, Mission, Performance oriented Problem Solving Research: Mission Impossible !
 OSA pioneer Dr. Warren Huang's over 35 years experiences in the development, implementation of global Capital Markets asset prices mechanism simulation, forecasts, banking, finance products R&D innovation OSA( Operations Simulation Analysis) in goal mission , performance control oriented Problem Solving research,    predicting the unknown, unpredictable futures  in global banking, financial, currency, energy, asset bubble crisis, risks for  US Mobil, AMOCO, Phillips Petroleum, Bechtel, Bailey network controls, Fluor, Stauffer Chemicals, Taiwan, China, Asian government, corporate headquarters strategic outsourcing economic, banking, finance, capital market Wall Street research  centers.
He directed thousands banking, financial market, Wall Street,  state and medium, small enterprises research consulting, and universities, teaching,   supporting daily  Banking, financial market  R&D innovation and implementation decision making analysis through OSA Goal, Mission oriented Problem Solving Technique: OSA mission impossible-predicting the unknown,  unpredictable, managing risks and uncertainties crisis.
A. Government central banks, monetary, economic, fiscal , WTO, trade policy, IMF,  banking, financial market US Wall Street R&D performance operations review, goal setting, problem scope definition
B  Global financial market Information Knowledge base development : Collect full scope ( since 1972, up to last 25 years)  daily  global central bank monetary,  economic, fiscal , WTO policy,  markets data and economic, market, business news, technical, fundamental analysts analysis  from US, Asian, European, Wall Street Journal  London Financial Times,  China, Hong Kong, Taiwan local daily economic, securities news and market research as information, knowledge, experiences, judgment, theory and practices
C. Proactive structural, dynamic OSA models simulators building, predicting month ahead : Apply Artificial Intelligence Fuzzy logic, neural net , pattern recognition to built thousands structural, dynamic artificial intelligence , pattern recognition expert systems based  OSA models tracking the causes and response of past history, lead to  problems solving solutions
D. Real Options real time simulation among the possible solutions to the problem for further model accuracy tracking improvement and apply for goal , mission, performance mission control, until problem is solved or meeting your investment goal
He has  direct over 1000 senior graduate chemical engineering , industrial economic, global strategic management student and hundred junior college students  since 1983 for data collection , literature search and information knowledge base development,  models simulation, tracking. and implemented, tracking by lectured over 15 cities  30 million TV, radio individual and institutional investors, fund  managers in  China, and Taiwanese, US, Asia.
Offered thousands investment workshops to global government,  banking, finance, corporate executives, VIP investors, audiences in global financial markets asset  and wealth management, risk management, corporate reform, reengineering process improvement supply chain cost reduction 300,000 Taiwan importer/exporters 100 countries currency, 5000 products demand , prices,  profits, listed stock prices, export strategy 
He has been invited to speak to over 100 international central banks governors, financial management, chemical engineering, information management, control conference on monetary policy impact on global financial crisis, risk management.
 
(including the Global Financial Market Simulation and Risk Management) which have been recommended by Hydrocarbon Processing's Advanced Control and information management strategy, process design, operations optimizations Handbook, 1991, 1993, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1999, 2001,2003 (US Gulf Publishing, Houston)

Problem Solving decision tools development: develop information knowledge based decision simulators by integrating

fundamental theory into artificial intelligence's fuzzy logic, neural net human mind reasoning, pattern recognition in chaos theory based expert systems decision and perform OSA( Operations Simulation Analysis) All simulation prediction must satisfy error below 1.5 %,

Problem Solving, OSA simulators implementation. Applications of the knowledge based decision simulators for global corporate/plant daily restructuring, reengineering, operations improvement problem solving decisions

Develop knowledge based decision simulators by integrating fundamental theory into artificial intelligence's fuzzy logic, neural net human mind reasoning, pattern reconditions in chaos theory based expert systems decision and perform OSA (Operations Simulation Analysis) All simulation prediction must satisfy error below 1.5 %, These systems have been recommended by Hydrocarbon Processing's Advanced Control and information management strategy, process design, operations optimizations Handbook, 1991, 1993,1995,1996, 1997,1999,2001

Global monetary, economic, fiscal , WTO policy impact simulation for central bank macro economical control

Global capital market asset prices simulation forecasts

Government/Corporate decision support systems:
Global Monetary Policy Impact  on Economy and Financial Markets Simulation and  Risk Management OSA
OSA supported IT, and CIM for Global corporate/plant TQM applications
Plant Operations Management for cost reduction
Global Marketing Sales OSA supported  Strategy
Global Feedstock & Energy Procurement OSA supported? Strategy
Integrated supply chain strategic management support integrating Order-entry, procurement, inventory, production? TQM? and marketing, sales systems strategy for maximize prodcutivity , billion dollar cost reduction and improved quality, market shares in -.Business
Global Feedstock Inventory OSA supported Strategy
Global Products Inventory OSA supported  Strategy
OSA Knowlege based Corporate/Plant decision simulators based distributed e-learning on the job Training centers for distributed OSA simulators based senior and entry ? level seed? OSA members training
OSA decision supported Global Refinery corporate/plant process CIM operations strategy
OSA decision supported Styrene/PS/ABS corporate/plant process CIM  operations strategy
OSA supported EG/PTA Polyestercorporate/plant integration CIM Strategy
Caprolactum/nylon fibresCorporate  process operations strategy corporate/plant CIM
Global plant operations, technical innovation, TQM cost reduction, debottleneck improvement
OSA decision supported FCC/ROC/HOC Operations Strategy
OSA supported Olefin Cracking Furnace yield improvement
OSA supported Global Olefin/Polyolefin/PVC Corporate/plant integration CIM StrategyOlefin/polyolefin OSA supported operations strategy
Fractionation OSA? Expert Systems for Debottleneck
OSA decision supported Refinery CIM for Global oils
OSA decision supported Refinery Reactors Operations yield improvement
OSA decision supported Process Reactor Operations Yield Improvement, ,
OSA decision supported Process Unit Operations Expert Systems
OSA decision supported Plant safety operations management
Plant information integration and OSA decision support
OSA Decision Supported Energy Conservation
Plant utilities information integration, decisions support
Catalytic Reforming Operations Management
OSA Decision Supported Waste Minimization,
OSA decision supported Research & Developement management
OSA Supported Hydrocracking Operations Strategy

Please visit our www.osawh.com global financial market simulation risk management homepage

The Model for transforming the IT function

The goal, mission, and performance oriented crossfunctional Corporate/Plant OSA teams (equivalent to Strategic Business Units (SBU), have been formed after extensive operations review, conducted by the author (the program manager) These OSA teams will assume full responsibility for the development and implement the corporate/plant IT and integrated into 32 knowledge based operations simulation analysis models for key decisions makers, supporting corporate president, financial, procurement, marketing production VP, managers, down to process plant reactors, units operations technical, operating staff operations daily decision in corporate restructuring, reengineering, downsizing, global merger/acquisition, strategic alliance, corporate global strategic decisions in crude oils, feedstock, energy procurement, production, inventory cost reductions, competitive pricing, sales, market shares strategy, energy conservation , quality control, waste minimization and DCS/CIM applications. for total quality management cost reductions and corporate/plant staff on the job decision analysis training to maximize int'l refinery, petrochemicals, chemicals plant flexibility and productivity in the one year OSA program directed byDr. Warren Huang
This approach will provide the most efficient and rewarding way for transforming the IT function

1.Global multinationals corporate/plant restructuring, reengineering, change management operations improvement through cost, quality, market share goal, mission, performance oriented OSA teams develop, implements OSA knowledge based corporate/plant operation decisions simulators supported daily operations saving billions dollars without staff reduction, hardware investment with significantly improved global market shares in one year OSA program

2. Global process plant information integration and decision supports, for debottle-neck, improved quality at reduced raw material, energy unit consumption costs through cost, quality, market share goal, mission, performance oriented OSA teams develop-, implements OSA knowledge based process units operation decisions simulators supported knowledge based model feed forward optimum computer control operations saving millions dollars without staff reduction, hardware investment with significantly improved global market shares in one year OSA program

3. Global Financial markets simulation, risk management for maximize investment return at minimum risks through tracking daily global central bankers monetary policy and it's impact on interest, exchange rate, commodities, raw materials, products demand, prices, corporate earning and stock prices, call/put options, warrant prices simulation in normal and global financial market crisis operations.

4.Biotech applications: Goal & Mission, Performance oriented knowledge based Biotech systems OSA (Operations Simulation Analysis) of genetic and molecular level human body biochemical genetic and environment operations, preventive medicine, Disease, Aging, Therapy, animal tests, clinical trials and conventional, biotech drug process simulation speedup the new drug and therapy by reduce/or eliminate the animal tests and clinical trials and by preventive medicine to help people live longer and healthier , happier life in the 21 century

5. Education's, Reassert and Training: Goal & Mission, Performance oriented knowledge based OSA teams applications to university teaching and research, IT and corporate/plant excessive on the job training, which I implemented for thousands of senior graduate student in Taiwan and China universities, trained millions global IT, corporate/plant financial excutives, investors

Emerging Practices in knowledge management

Thousands of knowledge based decision simulators out of the 32 strategic management systems have been developed, implemented successfully by the author in the last 32 years, Up to billion have been saved without hardware investment and staff reduction. just through the use of these simulators (for the financial markets simulation and feedstock's procurement alone) The results have been published and inviting to speak to 28 countries international conferences..

Additional strategic systems and knowledge-based simulators will be developed and implemented in meeting the future demand.

Development of OSA knowledge based decision simulators:

What is OSA and what OSA has accomplished?

OSA (Operations Simulations Analysis), pioneered by Dr. Warren Huang , is an extension of Operations Research, a powerful systematic method for the development and implementation of problem solving and decision analysis tools, applied extensively by the US defensive and aerospace industries using artificial intelligence pattern recognition, filtering and control for the Apollo moon landing tracking in the 1960's. As Huang applied it to his first job with Bechtel, in charge of New York office's process computer section 32 years ago. He developed and implemented refinery, petrochemicals, pharmaceuticals process design and operation simulation systems by integrating the chemical engineering principle into senior process engineers 20 years design and operating rule of thumb pattern recognition, human mind reasoning knowledge experiences. These knowledge based process simulation systems were used for supporting senior engineer's daily design and plant operating startup, debottle-neck, trouble shooting, online computer control and also used for training fresh entry level engineers for US, Taiwan, China, ASEAN manufacturing process plant design and operation improvement applications for 32 years (Huang, 2-7). He extended this approach to refinery optimization and corporate investment risk analysis, offshore platform location, and gasoline sales potential, corporate strategic management simulation applications later at Mobil's NY as senior analyst. At corporate computer application and management science department's simulation methods group He applied the moon landing tracking simulation technique to the adaptive filtering and control of chemical reactors under uncertain design, operations and econometric, financial market simulation forecast in his pH dissertation in 1972. And started Wall Street financial market simulation and tracking ever since, and started the development of Global Financial Markets simulation, capital investment, risk management and Global Procurement, Marketing, Sales Strategic Management and implementation for Taiwan, China and Asian Pacific government, state and private enterprises daily corporate restructuring, reengineering, operations improvement applications started 1980 till now (Huang 8-14, Jib, 15-17).

He has developed 32 knowledge based OSA decsion supported global strategic management systems over the lsat 32 years(including the Global Financail MArket Simulation and Risk Management) which have been recommended by Hydrocarbon Processing's Advanced Control and information management strategy, process design, operations optimizations Handbook, 1991, 1993, 1995, 1996, 1997 (US Gulf Publishing, Houston)

How is OSA works:

All OSA works have been carried out successfully for global corporate/plant daily restructureing, reengineering, operations improvement problem solving decisions simulators developement and implemention by goal and mission, performence oriented OSA teams, Supervised, directed by Huang

OSA applied same approach as Operations Research through repeating four steps:

problem definition, find the goal and scope of the problem (decisions analysis)

Understand the problem :Fact finding, extensive full range operating data history collection (including normal and crisis data) and staff's operating knowledge, develop knowledge based information systems

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Problem Solving decision tools development: develop information knowledge based decision simulators by integrating

fundamental theory into artificial intelligence's fuzzy logic, neural net human mind reasoning, pattern recognition in chaos theory based expert systems decision and perform OSA( Operations Simulation Analysis) All simulation prediction must satisfy error below 1.5 %,

Problem Solving, OSA simulators implementation. Applications of the knowledge based decision simulators for global corporate/plant daily restructuring, reengineering, operations improvement problem solving decisions

Only the Global capital investment and risk management and some Process Plant Operations Management strategy systems , and extension to the molecular and genetic applications to human body biochemical plant design and operations simulation, Disease and aging simulation and Biotech process simulation during the last 14 years. will be demonstrated for corporate restructuring and reengineering applications in this paper due to limited time and space.

Global Financial Market Simulation, Capital Investment and Risk Management

This knowledge based Global Financial Markets OSA(Operations Simulations Analysis) and Risk Management Systems, simulating daily US and global financial and products market interaction, which pinpoints each economic, financial market crisis beforehand by simulating the global central bankers daily money supply and it's impact on macro economic GNP, inflation, capital flow, and trade economics, commodities, industrial raw materials, products demand and prices, financial economics interest rates, currency exchange rates and corporate operating margins, stocks and bonds, commodities and financial future and derivatives(call/put option, warrants) and real estate properties prices. These simulation, forecasts predicted the global f inancial market normal day to day operations and major crisis since 1987 stock crash with average error below 1.5 %

The global Investors and institutional fund managers could have avioded billion dollars loses by stay out of the markets and or bought put options before the financial crisis and made billion dollars by taking advantage of the investment opportunities during the global crisis .

These knowledge based simulators hyave been developed through applying Artificial Integence neural net, fuzzy logic, chaos algorithms out of last 20 years daily US, Asian, European Wall Street Journals and Taiwan, China, Hong Kong's daily financial markets news papers, trading and corporate earning data and training and feedback from millions chief finance officer, fund managers, traders, investors market pshchology in authors nationwide radio and TV program in Taiwan, and China and integrated into the demand side economic theory by the author's goal and mission, performance oriented OSA teams only the US Fed fund rate, Dow index, IBM stock price and W. Tex crude oil price simulation forecast for US daily financial markets and Korea Won, Seoul stock index, Hong Kong Henseng Index and China SHanghai Stock index for Asian finaincial market crisis simulations are shown in the paper, additional results will be demonstrated in the conference.

Interbank or Fed fund rate are related to Money supply growth rate %,, Commodity index and inflation rate)shown on Fig. 1 These systems explain the US Fed use 4- 6 % M2 money supply growth rate at current inflation rate of 2- 3%, and commodity index 220- 250, the Fed fund rate is in the 4.5 - 6 % , lower inflation rate and commodities prices (benefited by strong dollar and Asian financial crisis resulted economic slowdown, allow the Fed kept current expansionary money supply policy to keep the dollar from rising, which will hurt our export.

Asian Financial Market Currency Crisis Simulation

Dollar exchange rates are related to US trade deficit, the other country's trade surplus(deficit), interest rate spread) While Asian country central bankers must tighten money supply, raised interest rate to stabilize the exchange rate(increse the interest rate spread), The economic boom of most Asuan countries resulted skyrocketing labor and properties and stock prices have cut into the export market competativeness( against China's low labor costs), lead to deteriorating trade and current account deficit in Thailand, Indonesia, Korean, Hong Kong and shrinking trade surplus in Taiwan, made their currency overvalued.. Thailand had to raise to interest rate from 15 % to 30 %, to allow the Baht exchange rate rebound from 50 to 40(depreciated form 25), Hong Kong raised the interbank rate from 5 % to 25 % to allow the Hong Kong dollar stick to the 7.7), S. Korea has to raised the interest from 20 % to 40 % to prevent it drop to 2000(depreciated from 750), lead to rebound and stabilized at 1400. as shown on Fig. 2

However, the US dollar is overvalued at current level(especially against Yen at 135, due to fail to reflect the surging Japan trade surplus,(more than 50 %), while US trade deficit will making new high in the months ahead., the dollar already seen it's peak, will start to fall till April)

The Global Commodities, Industrial raw material and Futures Prices Simulations, Forecasts

Most commodities cash and future are are related to money supply growth( the demand,), the dollar exchange rates, oil prices and inflation rate. Which explain the recent gold prices slump is due to the strong US dollar, lower inflation and the oil prices(production cost)

The current economic slowdown in Asia, caused by credit tightening due to Asian Financial Market Crisis lead to falling oil, petrochemicals raw material and products prices will continue till April. . Take the West Texas crude oil price for example, is due to poor demand in fuel oil (mild winter make it drop to 42 c/gal and lower )and gasoline prices(drop to 45 and lower , simulation result is shown on Fig.3, which indicate the oil price will drop to 14 by April. and rebound then. The lower ethylene price is due to

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lower crude oil price, naphtha price(cost) and strong US dollar even at moderate economic growth( 5 % M2 growth rate ). The slump in IC DRAM and PC prices are due to strong US dollar VS Korean Won, Japnese Yen and the technical innovation(short product life)

the falling trend will continue till April. The impact of global economic demand and production cost and dollar exchange rate impact on the these commodity and consumers products prices in the global import and export market are simulated reliably for daily corporate financial and marketing decisions with average error below 1.5% , pinpoint ahead of the trade competetiveness and global financial market crises, before it deteriorates.

Additional prices relationships and simulation results will be demonstrated in the conference.

The Global Commodities and Financial Futures and Derivatives OSA:

The the current and future global central bankers monetary policy impact on global financial interest rate and exchanges rate futures have been simulated and forecast as stated in the previous paragraph.

While it's impact on global stock market indecies are simulated as follows:

Global Stock Index/Bond are related to M2 money supply growth, interest rate, dollar exchange rate)

This relationship simulated last 15 years 20 daily international stock market stock indices, including normal and major crisis with average error below 1.5 %

the London FInancial Times Index is related to UK M2 money supply growth, interest rate, NY Dow Jones Index It predicted 1987, The high US inflation rate (6.5% ) and the Iranian war, pushed the oil price to 25, lead US Fed credit tightening, reduce the money supply growth from 9 % to 7 %,, raised the Fed fund rate from 9 % to 9.75%, the Dollare Yen exchange rate drop from 150 to 136, caused the Dow crashed from 2250 to 1520 ,as shown in Fig 4.. It also indicate the current Dow recovery from 500 plunge is due to lower inflation(due to Asian economic slowdown) lead to lower mortgage rate and full employment, expansionary money supply(Fed rate will be below 5.4%, m2 money supply will be over 5.5 % to partial offset the overvalued dollar( negative impact on auto, IC, computers imports from Japan and Korea) and economic slowdown in Asia will cut into corporate profits.

It will take the Dow to retest it's 7000 lows,while Financial Times Index will follow Dow Jones to retest 4800 .

The financial futures and derivatives (put/call options) have been simulated accurately as follows

The above commodities, interest rate, exchange rate and stock index simulations have been extended easily to the futures simulation and forecast by replacing the current value by the future value. while their call/put options have been used extensively by the financial industry for hedging in risk management have been simulated:

Call/Put options prices are related to the striking price of the call/put, Days to expiration, current and future coommodities, interest rate, exchange rate and stock index prices

This formula is simpler than the Nobel wining Black formula, it provide future commodities interest rate, exchange rate and stock index simulation , forecasts and does not require volatility data. It have been developed, used successfully since 1987 stock market crash.

Asian Stock Market Crisis Simulations:

The ASEAN Currency crash has spilled over to Japan, Korean , due to mounting trading and current deficit, the credit tighening in support the currency(especially Hong Kong raise the interest rate to stick to the dollar)caused their stock index plunged more than 50 % , While Japan is badly hurt due to heavily invested in Asia.

Fig. 5 shown HK Henseng Index plunged more than 50 % to 8300 due to interbank rate pushed up to 25 %(to support HK dollar) and while China Shanghai Stock Index down 30 % from it's top, US DOW JONES softness, While Korea's Seoul Index crashed 50 % due to Won exchange rate plunged from 800 to 2000, interest rate hike to 30 % as shownChina's Shanghai Stock index are related to China m2 money supply growth %, HK Henseng Index, China Inflation rate)which indicated , the index is off 30 % from it's peak to 1100, due to m2 money supply growth is down 50 % to 14 % and Henseng index plunged 50 %, the index is supported at 1000 by the low inflation rate of 2 %, lead recent interest rate cut). This formula, jointly developed by Huang and imlplmented by Ji, have tracked last four years daily stocks movement with average error below 1.5 %, Huang have been invited to speak to the Beijin's Central Braodcasting station, Shanghai, Wuhan, Shenzhen, 12 cities nationawide 200 million audiences and television viewers and used it for nationawide corporate finance, government officials and institution managers, traders,investors investment strategy and risk management training program.

Global corporate earning, profit margin, daily stock prices, call/put options , warrant prices simulation

Equiped with the above global financial markets and commodities, products demand and prices simulations, we can easily tracking, simulate global central banks monetary supply policy, it's impact on global macro, financial, trade, and industrial raw, material, products prices, and therefore the corporate capital expenditures, merger/acquisition and the profit margin, stock prices. These systems have been applied successfully to thousand of US, Taiwan, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, China's corporate profit margin and stock prices simulation since the 1987 stock crash.

Corporate Profit Margin are related to operating costs(raw material, energy, manpower,financial), sales)

Corporate Stock Prices are related to Global economy, profit margin or Stock index,

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Take IBM for instance, it's profit margin and stock price is very much depend on US economy(Dow Jones Index), especially the money supply growth.. and the Fed fund rate, while the Japan's Yen exchange rate profit the major

competitors, and sales prices and conversion loss or gain) we. can easily visualize, shown IBM suffered huge loss and stock prices hit 40 as the US money supply growth dip below 0.5 % , Fed fund hit 10 %, during the recent recesion,It started rebound with the M2 rebound above 1 % and falling fund rate and weaker dollar, Yen (reach 80)It also indicate that IBM stock price pushed to 160 and profit margin soaring as IBM benefited by it's cost reduction, technical innovation cost reduction in mainframe and the global economic expansion, with m2 growth rate reaching 5.5 % the current Dow is at all time high and recovery from 500 plunge is due to lower inflation(due to Asian economic slowdown) lead to lower mortgage rate and full employment, expansionary money supply(Fed rate will be below 5.4%, m2 money supply will be over 5.5 % to partial offset the overvalued dollar( negative impact on auto, IC, computers imports from Japan and Korea) and economic slowdown in Asia will cut into corporate profits.Which will take IBM retest it's recent low of 88 in the month ahead. While the IBM put/call options , warrant have been simulated accurately as follows

IBM Stock price = F (US M2 money supply growth, interest rate, dollar exchange rate)

IBM put/call/warrant prices= F(Striking prices, days to expiration, IBM current/future stock prices),

Huang used this formula bought US$ 2000 IBM, Monsanto, Lily put two weeks before the 1987 Oct crash at 1/8 to 1/16 prices, it soared 50 times on the expiration day as the stock crashed, the investment went to US 100,000.

Additional prices relationships and simulation results will be demonstrated in the conference.

Corporate Restructuring, reengineering, change management OSA Decision Supports

The exploding management information provided by the low cost and easily acessable computing and information industry make it impossible for daily decision making.

The author have applied the corporate/plant decision operations simulations successfully to assist the US, Taiwan, Asian Pacific refinery, petrochemicals, chemicals industries corporate decision makers in corporate restructuring and reengineering daily decision support during the last 32 years. Billions dollars can be saved with improved operating flexibility and productivity and global market share through applying the Operations Simualtion Analysis(OSA) based global corporate/plant strategic management systems for global corporate/plant restructuring and reengineering applications

Dr. Warren Huang applied it to the developement and implementation of Over 100 refinery, olefin,plastics, fibers, biotech process reactors systems design/operations improvement systems , directing 1000 chemical engineering senior and graduate students process design, operations simulation and control through goal and mission oriented OSA teams during the author 's university teaching and research for Taiwan's top universities and extended to China's major universities in Shanghai and Beijin. These sysstems have been used for thousands process plant managers, senior technical, operating staff, reactors systems operating staff, corporate planning VP, managers on the job training and decision support in corporate reengineering applications improvement experience with major US, Taiwan,China, Asian Pacific companies. Millions of dollars could be saved

A. 3-5% Reactors yields improvement, up to 150 % of design capacity debottleneck,

B. New Process, Product developement, quality improvement and control.

C. Up to 50 % Energy conservation waste minimization, ,

D .Lab scale, pilot plant scaleup, reduced clinical trial, pilot experiments for yield and quality improvement all achieved without any equipment retrofit and plant shutdown.

These 100 process simulations systems are integraed into the author's global strategic management systems described earlier will provide full scale decision support for global corporate/plant restructuring, reengineering decision supports

Table 1 shown the oil hydrocracking and olefin corporate/plant reengeineering systems developement and applications.

recommended by Hydrocarbo Processing's (Gulf Publishing, Houston)1997 advanced control and information systems handbook

Biotech Applications:'" Human Body Biochemical Plant Design and Operations Simulation"

Dr. Huang has 32 years successful knowledge based online refinery, petrochemicals process plant OSA(Operations Simulation Analysis) and optimum computer control to provide optimum feedfoward setpoint control for improved plant operating quality, efficiency and plant life at reduced cost and accident, interruptions and reduced damage due to feedback control, without any laboratory or pilot plant tests, or equipment retrofit through OSA guided improved operating guideline and preventive maintenance.

He has extended this experience to human body biochemical plant design and operations simulation(OSA) andpharmaceutical products process simulations 14 years ago. directed over 300 senior chemical engineering and biochem senior and graduate students to conduct intensive search of global biotech literature, patents(including Chinese herbs)on cell developement, genetic and molecular biology,immunology, cancer and virus caused major disease, and developed drugs process design simulation for 30 biotech drug process (from conventional penicillin, L-Lysine to Monoclonal antibody, interferon, to recobinant DNA)

Each person has his unique biochemical plant, geneticaly inherited(design) and responding differently to the outside environemental impact; pollutions, educations, working and emotional stress(operations). Even the idnetical twin, will be differents if raised in different environment, as it is compared to tow identical designed

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chemical plant behave differently if it is running under different feed composition, or different climate. .Alll can be tracked by real time OSA. Process plant central , auxiliary computer control and regulartory control systems is used to simulation CNS(centrol Nervous control)Nervous systems control,PNS(Periphiral nervous systems and Hormones self regulartory control to a preseted setpoint for feedback temperature control, water, chemical , energy balance, storage and self defence, emotional response. while brain memory function compare to computer memory and programs.

The computer control systems consists of sensors and signals are sending through currents, as compared to brain receive the senors signal from tongue, eyes, nose, and skins and send the response through neurons send it through electrolyte neural transmitters in the spinal cord (cable wire) and the recetpors

while the local hormone regulars sending chemical signals through relay and enzyme catalytic reactions amplified by second messengers and protein kinase to regulate the control of reproduction and developement. and interact with the CNS. and plays key role in water, chemical balance and emotional, mood and organ functions. Again, by applying the process plant optimum feedforward set point control can reduce body organ, tissue damage due to offset in feedback control . In which modification of the setpoint due to inherited habit (genetic deffect or mutation, )is required to change the bad habit through preventive medicine or health food to tune up the body system.

With Vera's assistance These biochemical plant is able to siumulate the actions at the genetic and moelcular level real time human body biochemical plant Design and Operations Siumlation will help speedup the new drugs developement by reduce or hopefully eventually eliminate animal tests and clinical trials.

'" Human Disease, Aging, Therapy Operations Simulation"

The achievement of genetic and molecular biology in modern biotech has brought human body biochemical plant even closer to refinery, petrochemicals process plant design and operations .Warren's successful direct application of knowledge based online refinery, petrochemicals process plant OSA (Operations Simulation Analysis) and computer control to improve plant operating efficiency and plant life at reduced accident, interruptions without any laboratory or pilot plant tests, or equipment retrofit through OSA guided improved operating guideline and preventive maintenance.

With the help from our genetic and molecular level simulation of CNS, PNS and Hormones integrated control of organs and tissues functions , which dominate our health, longivity, and disease.

Diseases and Aging can easily be identified through the malfunction of the systems by real time tracking and simulation of these central and regulatory control systems Which can be caused by inherited genetic deffect ,or damaged by environemntal polluted chemicals free readical attack resulted uncogene trickled cancer or virus infection, damaged immune systems, or is caused by scrapie prion turn on to destroy the neurons resulted spongy form. Knowledge based Operations Simulation Analysis of Disease, aging and therapy again save time wasted in clinical trials, animal test. The recent breakthrough in gene therapy by direct injection of tumor suppresor genes and antisense,bombard it with activated Iodine on monoclonal antibody to destroy the cancer cells in 24 hours.,without any clinical trial or animal tests,. which already copy the OSA online process plant trooubleshooting; solve the plant operating problem instantly without interruption

With the help from human genome projects, which identifiy DNA sequences of the known disease provide OSA tracking and simulation of the genetic and molecular level enzyme catalyzed organic sythesis reactions surrounding the real cause of human Diseases and Aging, and the therapeutic mechanism very valuable information resources for the effective cure, therapy of aging and major disease

The first step in building knowledge based human disease, aging, therapy OSA systems is to form goal, mission, performance oriented cross-functional OSA teams, then start the collection of entire medical history, pathology, pathgenic data, therapeutic and clinical trials history and the specialsts experiences from various cell developement,genetics, immunology, pathologist, and MD's and bulid up the knowledge based human disease, aging, therapy information systems, knowledge based OSA decisions simulators can then be developed to identify the real cause and curing therapy approach for the disease and aging and prevention directly, hopefully without goning through animal tests and or clinical trials

This approach can easily applied to the simulation of animal tests or clinical trial, like the prion related disease

simulation in mouse and human brain simutaneously to identify the real cause and way to cure it.

Conclusions :Educations, Resaerch and Training : The New IT executives for the next century

In survising in this rapidly changing global markets, both the IT excutive, academic training and the corporate/plant executives and each employee must be trained daily by these knowledge based decisions simulators(updated regularly, to adpative and responding to the changing environment to be competitive. while this goal & mission, performance oriented knowledge based OSA teams applications to university teaching and research, IT and corporate/plant excutive on the job training, which the author implemented for thousands of senior graduate student ini Taiwan and China universities, trained millions global IT, corporate/plant financial excutives, investors

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References :

1.Huang,W."Improve process by OSA", Hydrocarbon Processing, May 1980

2.Huang,W.,"OSA for Int'l Petrochemical Marketing and Sales", Presented to AIChE Diamond Jubilee Meeting

1 Huang,W."Integrated Refinery/Petrochemicals Management Information & Strategic Management System-Refinery

of the 1990's",presented to INTERPEC CHINA SEPT 10,1991,Beijing,China.

2 Huang W. " Strategic Planning Expert System", Advanced Control Handbook VI,Hydrocarbon Processing,SEPT 1991.

4 Huang W." Computer Integrated Plant Management", Advanced Control Handbook VI, HP, Sept. 1991, p. 59

5 Huang W. "Refinery Optimization and and Control", presented to INTERPEC China 91, Beijing, Sept. 12,1991.

6. Huang,W." Decision Supported Refinery CIM', Advanced Control Handbook Hydrocarbon Processing, Sept,1992, 1993

7. Huang, W. "Operations Simulation Maximize Refinery, Olefin Plant Productivity, Flexibility", Oct. 12, 1991, Oct. 6, 1995 Antwerpan, Belgium Large Chemical Plant conf. by European Chemical Engineering

11.Huang, W. " Operations Simulations Decisions Supported TQM Maximize Productivity and Flexibility" to Quality and Productivity Conf by Hydrocarbon Processing ,Feb, 25, 1993, Houston,

12. Huang, W. "Operations Simulation Supported Reengineering Maximize Refinery and Chemical Plant Productivity and Flexibility", May 20,. , 1995,Beijin, China. byAchemAsia

13Huang,W.,"OSA Maximize Styrene Productivity, Flexibility, OGJ.Mar.1983.

14 Huang,W "Energy and Resource Conservation in Chemical Process Design & Operation",World Congress III,

Tokyo,Oct.1,1986

15.Huang,W.,"Financial and Macroeconomic Impact on Int'l Petrochemical prices,demand,Trade",to World

Congress III,Oct. 1986,Tokyo.

16.Huang,W.,"OSA based eduction and on the job training",to World Congress III,Oct. 1986,Tokyo.

17.Huang,W."International Petrochemicals Management Information System Structure and Operating Goals", to

AIChE, Mar.19, 1990, Orlando.

18Huang,W.,"OSA expert systems based training simulators",to World Congress IV, KArsrule, Germany, Sept. 1991

19Huang, W. " Operations Simulations Decisions Supported TQM Maximize Productivity and Flexibility" to Quality and Productivity Conf by Hydrocarbon Processing ,Feb, 25, 1993, Houston,

20 Xiao Min Ji, Huang, W. "Operations Simulation Supported Reengineering Maximize Corporate Productivity and Flexibility",Presented to World Econmic Management Conf. July 20 , 1997,Shanghai, China.

21.Xiao Min Ji, Huang, W. "OSA supported Global Strategic Management",Presented to World Economic Management Conf. July 20, 1997, Shanghai, China.

22.Xiao Min Ji, Huang, W. "Asian Financial Crisis Simulation and Risk Management",to be presented to Economic Simulation Conf. July 20 , 1998 Lyon University, Lyon, France,.

23Huang,W" OSA/DSA Approach to Biotech and Recombinant DNA",- int'l Biotech Conference, Sept. 1985, Singapore

24Huang,W" OSA/DSA Approach to Chemicals and Biotech Reactors", to ACHEMA, Sept. 1991, Frankfurt, Germany