Vietnam Asset Bubble and Monetary Policy Impact on Macroeconomic  and Financial Markets Risks OSA (Operations Simulation Analysis)
  Asian Financial Crisis, Economic Recession, Recovery Risk Management OSA
home              Apr. 2004   Edition

Global Capital Markets Asset Prices, Bubbles Simulation, Early Warning OSA strategic investment/ Basel II risk management lecture/workshops tours 
 (covered thousands lectures, 46 countries capital cities 30 million , banking,  finance corporate CEO, CFO, fund managers, senior executives  investors since 1983,     by  your expert 80 )

 Speaker, Dr. Warren Huang, Pioneer, Global leader, scholar in Global Strategic Management

============================================================
Dr. Huang just return from Kuala Lumpur, lectured to Asian Business Forum's European, Asian central banks, stock exchanges, banking, securities executives on global nonperformance loan debt, equities, properties? asset prices , credit risk simulation, investment strategy and? Asset Backed Securitization workshops: predicting the unpredictable futures to minimize bad loan ,shares buy back procurement =============================================================================,
=== OSA pioneer Dr. Huang's Global trillion NPL asset Strategic Management workshop in Dec,===
OSA maximize nonperofrmance asset cost performance, value recovery, pre-warning for future NPL workshops in December in Asia?tracking the causes, onset, recovery, prevent of your NPL asset
========================================================= Goal: Dynamic tracking simulation the root Causes, onset, recovery  of  ASEAN currency crisis,  Asian financial crisis and US new economy bubble burst, EURO economic slowdown  impact on  Singapore macro GNP, inflation, export,  interest rates, currency,  stocks, commodity, electronics, products, properties prices impact on consumer and business spending, to predict, forecast overpriced asset prices resulted consumers spending imbalance and business profit slump due to central banks raising interest rates to cool off the economy, leading to bubble burst and abrupt change in consumer and business confidence caused stock prices plunges with average error below 1.5 %, correlation constant above 0.95.

>Monetary Policy on global stock prices,: Global stock prices and monetary policy impact on consumer and business spending. Global stock prices, monetary policy impact on housing properties prices and rent Global stock prices, monetary policy impact on GDP macro-economics performance. Global stock prices, monetary policy impact on procurement manager index Global stock prices, monetary policy impact on consumer and business confidence Global stock prices, monetary policy impact on saving rate. Global stock prices, monetary policy impact on corporatesupply  chain costs,  profit margin Global monetary policy, external shocks( commodities, oils prices, currency and credit default) impact on burst, burst, abrupt change of consumer, business confidence (Asian crisis, LTCM, US Nasdaq plunge, South American crisis))

Dr. Warren Huang accurately predicted 1997 Thailand and ASEAN currency crisis and 1998 summer on osawh.com and Rome speech  that the falling oil, commodity prices and strong dollar will lead to  US  cut interest rates , to allowed  Asian countries cut interest rate to pre crisis level, stock rebound strongly lead to increased Thailand and  Asian export growth, consumer demand, and recovery. 
Dr. Huang also accurately predicted on 1999 May Macao central bank governors conference that US Fed will raise fund rate in June  1999 due to soaring stocks, properties, oil prices, which will take US stocks and Asian stock prices into minimum 15 % correction, and some internet stock with 50 -90 % corrections, Dow Jones will test 9,100, Nasdaq test  1500, Henseng test 12000, Nikkei test 12,000, Bangkok index down to 260, Taiwan index down to 4500 with  asset  bubble  simulation models on Macao's central bank governors conference, Taipei's Pacific Basin finance conference and Washington DC NASD conferences. during April and May 1999. and 2001 Asian Pacific Finance conference in Bangkok, July 24, and keynote speech on  Supply chain strategy conference/ workshop in Singapore,Apr 26-27
Vietnam OSA:
export  is benefited by  Asian recovery and US, EURO demand, and foreign capital investment  boosted it's  economic recovery, during 1999-2000. However it was effected by global slowdown, IT bubble burst .  It still enjoyed  5 % GDP growth last year     and rebound in  consumer and business confidence and spending as global recovery . However is hurt badly by   US Nasdaq plunge 65 % resulted IT bubble burst,   US and Asia recession , prices plunge resulted   export plunge 20 % resulted shrinking  trade surplus  put pressure on   currency  However benefited by US and global recovery, and foreighn capital form Tiawasn's fiber industries due to Viet=Nam's low labor costs, enjoyed stable   trade surplus support strong currency 
manufacturing  production index : soared   14 % due to strong export and domestic demand in 2000,  it decline 15 % in 2001 pulling out of slowddown slowly by US and Asian recovery 

Export : Benefited by strong US and Asian recovery demand, oil price pick 20 %    export growth at up 15 % from 4 % in 2000 However, US slowdown lead to  export slowdown, and falling   oil  prices lead to 10 % decline in industrial production and export .is picking up slowly will stop decline  
Import : up due to rising oil, raw material import prices , auto durable goods, retail sales 
Trade Surplus :soaring surplus due to  increasing export
Currency  stable due to rising  trade surplus 
Agricultural , Food prices: Up 10 % due to rising  global commodities prices   will be stabilize while fuel prices up 30 % in summer.
Inflation still under control: 
Interest rate:  5  %
GDP growth rate %:  hurt by  soaring oil prices   GDP, will be5 % -6  % 

These deterministic, dynamic simulation of last 20 years global asset prices, and economy boom and bust of the asset bubble vicious cycle of excessive monetary policy, low interest rate induced sustained long term bull markets stocks prices gain caused consumer and business spending in real estate properties pushed soaring housing prices and rent. And deficit spending (negative saving) in stock markets, pushed the stock s even higher, until abrupt reverse of consumer and investor confidence --the bubble burst- plunge of stocks and properties prices as it happened in US, Japan, Taiwan in 1980, 1987, 1990, energy crisis, EURO 1992 currency crisis, 1994 China runaway inflation, 1995 Mexico crisis, 1997-98 ASEAN, Japan, Korea, Russia, Brazil currency crisis, all caused by overpriced stock prices due to excess monetary policy and high GDP growth
USA        China      Thailand       Taiwan      Japan      Hong Kong     Korea        Singapore    Indonesia     Canada  Mexico