Proactive Structural Vietnam Asset Bubble and Monetary Policy Impact on Macroeconomic Inflation and  Financial  Systems Stability Risks Early Warning Regulation,  Currency ) IMF  Surveillance  OSA (Operations Simulation Analysis)
  Asian Financial,  Crisis, Asset Price Bubbles Burst, Economic Recession, Recovery Risk Management OSA
home            June. 2008   Edition
Vietnam facing economic overheating , run away inflation, equities, real estate bubble burst, financial instability, credit tightening , real estate and equities price correction through 2008.
 Proactive Structural Asian  (  Vietnam )equities, housing, oil, commodities asset price bubble simulation, forecast: workshop

Global /Vietnam  Macro Economy ,Capital Markets Asset Prices, Bubbles Simulation, Early Warning OSA strategic investment/ Basel II risk management lecture/workshops tours 
 (covered thousands lectures, 46 countries capital cities 30 million , banking,  finance corporate CEO, CFO, fund managers, senior executives  investors since 1983,     by  your expert 80 )

 Speaker, Dr. Warren Huang, Pioneer, Global leader, scholar in Global Strategic Management

Dr. Warren Huang (黃華南博士) Pioneer, proactive structural dynamic global inflation, macro economy, daily financial markets interest rates, currency, stock, bond, derivatives, housing, commodities, oil asset pricing and risks valuation markets fundamentals price mechanism, accurately warned on Wall Street Journal Market beat Blog Sept.19, 2007 that US housing price slump continue into summer 2008 drag economy into inflationary recession and US, global stock indices bear market correction, dollar to new low and oil above 110, Bear Stearn 30 billion dollar MBS hedge fund despite Fed rate cuts He also warned top QFII management on Peking Univ June 2007 International Financial Engineering Conference that China overheated housing, stock market wealth gain resulted inflation over 8. 7 % will lead to China Peoples Bank credit tightening to remove excessive liquidity, housing, stock markets follow US housing price slump, recession, bear market correction, with Shanghai A testing 3000- 3500  till summer 2008  
 Proactive Structural Strategic Solution: Forecast months ahead  last 20 years US/global  Housing mortgage default, Credit, Financial Crisis Operations Simulation Analysis , The Causes, onset, spread, recovery, early warning , and consequences through Monetary, Economic, Fiscal Policy Impact on Economic Recession, Real Time Financial Market Prices Mechanism and Systemic Instability Basel II credit, Market, Operational  Risks Early Warning 
 US/China 2008 Housing, Oil, Commodities, Equities Price Bubbles Overheating, inflation, Currency Trilemma OSA:
5 -Day Workshop : Global Interest rate, Dollar, Stock Indices, Oil, Gold, Metals and Housing, Equities Bubbles price Forecast , Long-Short strategy
 impact on Stocks Prices, Futures,  Derivatives  Prices Market Forces Mechanism Simulation,  Forecast, ETF  Risks Hedging , Investment Strategy
5 Day CEO , CFO, traders, fund managers Proactive Structural Asset Pricing, Allocation Long-Short Strategy in-house Workshop
============================================================
Dr. Huang just return from China Fund World 2008, Pudong, Shanghai, , lectured to Goldman Sach, UBS, Franklin Templeton, JPM 150 CEO, fund managers on Muliti-class China /Global Asset Pricing, allocation RIsk Management  warning Asian US housing , equiteis, oil, commodities bubble burst,  betting on the wrong of investment resulted trillion dollar loss =====================,
He offered Full day workshop and risk management panel discussion
OSA maximize nonperofrmance asset cost performance, value recovery, pre-warning for future NPL workshops  tracking the causes, onset, recovery, prevent of your NPL asset
  Goal: Dynamic tracking simulation the root Causes, onset, recovery  of  ASEAN currency crisis,  Asian financial crisis and US new economy bubble burst, EURO economic slowdown  impact on  Singapore macro GNP, inflation, export,  interest rates, currency,  stocks, commodity, electronics, products, properties prices impact on consumer and business spending, to predict, forecast overpriced asset prices resulted consumers spending imbalance and business profit slump due to central banks raising interest rates to cool off the economy, leading to bubble burst and abrupt change in consumer and business confidence caused stock prices plunges with average error below 1.5 %, correlation constant above 0.95.

>Monetary Policy on global stock prices,: Global stock prices and monetary policy impact on consumer and business spending. Global stock prices, monetary policy impact on housing properties prices and rent Global stock prices, monetary policy impact on GDP macro-economics performance. Global stock prices, monetary policy impact on procurement manager index Global stock prices, monetary policy impact on consumer and business confidence Global stock prices, monetary policy impact on saving rate. Global stock prices, monetary policy impact on corporatesupply  chain costs,  profit margin Global monetary policy, external shocks( commodities, oils prices, currency and credit default) impact on burst, burst, abrupt change of consumer, business confidence (Asian crisis, LTCM, US Nasdaq plunge, South American crisis))

Dr. Warren Huang accurately predicted 1997 Thailand and ASEAN currency crisis and 1998 summer on osawh.com and Rome speech  that the falling oil, commodity prices and strong dollar will lead to  US  cut interest rates , to allowed  Asian countries cut interest rate to pre crisis level, stock rebound strongly lead to increased Thailand and  Asian export growth, consumer demand, and recovery. 
Dr. Huang also accurately predicted on 1999 May Macao central bank governors conference that US Fed will raise fund rate in June  1999 due to soaring stocks, properties, oil prices, which will take US stocks and Asian stock prices into minimum 15 % correction, and some internet stock with 50 -90 % corrections, Dow Jones will test 9,100, Nasdaq test  1500, Henseng test 12000, Nikkei test 12,000, Bangkok index down to 260, Taiwan index down to 4500 with  asset  bubble  simulation models on Macao's central bank governors conference, Taipei's Pacific Basin finance conference and Washington DC NASD conferences. during April and May 1999. and 2001 Asian Pacific Finance conference in Bangkok, July 24, and keynote speech on  Supply chain strategy conference/ workshop in Singapore,Apr 26-27
Vietnam Macro-economic inflation control OSA:
Vietnem export  is benefited by  Global  /China 5 years economic expansion resulted  demand, and foreign capital investment  boosted it's  economic recovery, during  2002- 2008 However it was effected by overheat housing market , and soaring oil, commodities and hot money speculation in stock markets  resulted bubble burst 
Cnetral banks money supply growth soared to 54 % from 37 % of 2007, resulted 25 % inflation in Apr. 2008, even central bank credit tightening, raise bank deposit ration to 18 %., soaring oil, commodities price pushed trade deficit to 14 billion in April ,2008 .  almost approach financial instability of 1997 Thailand, Russia, Brazil currency crisis. despite  It still enjoyed 7 % GDP growth.
Central banks credet tightening continue this year stock market crashed 70 % from its peak, real estate price plunge 30 %, will continue this year with little relief in the near future, despite hot QFII continue speculate. ,  
manufacturing  production index : soared   7% due to strong export and domestic demand in 2008,   facing   US , China slowdown 

Export :  hurt by  soaring cost, slowdown in  US and  China demand, oil price doubled, benefited by soared commodity price in rice, agriculture    export growth at up, US slowdown lead to  export slowdown, 
Import : up due to rising oil, raw material import prices , auto durable goods 
Trade Surplus :soaring  deficit at 14 billion  due to soaring oil, raw material price
Currency   under presure depreciate from 15500 to 16200. 
Agricultural , Food prices: Up 22 % due to rising  global commodities prices   will be stabilize while fuel prices up 30 % in summer.
Inflation  soared to 25 %
Interest rate:  5  %
GDP growth rate %:  hurt by  soaring oil prices  , inflation, credit tightening  GDP, will be -6  % 

These deterministic, dynamic simulation of last 20 years global asset prices, and economy boom and bust of the asset bubble vicious cycle of excessive monetary policy, low interest rate induced sustained long term bull markets stocks prices gain caused consumer and business spending in real estate properties pushed soaring housing prices and rent. And deficit spending (negative saving) in stock markets, pushed the stock s even higher, until abrupt reverse of consumer and investor confidence --the bubble burst- plunge of stocks and properties prices as it happened in US, Japan, Taiwan in 1980, 1987, 1990, energy crisis, EURO 1992 currency crisis, 1994 China runaway inflation, 1995 Mexico crisis, 1997-98 ASEAN, Japan, Korea, Russia, Brazil currency crisis, all caused by overpriced stock prices due to excess monetary policy and high GDP growth
USA        China      Thailand       Taiwan      Japan      Hong Kong     Korea        Singapore    Indonesia     Canada  Mexico