Chinese (中文)
US Subprime , Prime,
mortgage, Credit, Financial Crisis Recession causes , Bailout, economic stimulus Impact on Housing Industry Demand,
Prices and Credit Default Mechanism, 2009 economic recession, currency,
equities, housing, commodites , derivatives asset bubbles prices burst simulations
multiclass Fund asset allocation and markets rIsks, mortgage
crisis early warning workshops
(
presented to
China Peoples Bank, 24 global central banks governors, risk management
confernces since 1999)
Proactive Structural Dynamic Simulation
of last 20 years China/US/UK, Asian
Mortgage Defaults Crisis, Macro-economic inflationary recession, unemplyment targeting, Monetary interest rate
policy Impact on mortgage rate, Emerging bull/bear stocks and
housing narket trend , Prices Bubbles burst, Mortgage
Loan Credit rating, Prepayment, Defaults, Recovery Modeling, Bond Spread, credit derivaitves pricing in Assets Securitization,
Risks Hedging
San Francisco, New York in-house workshops
by reservation at your convenient time
your office
wh3928@yahoo.com
conducted by Dr.
Warren Huang, Pioneer, Global Strategic Management OSA
Preparing for Macroeconomic control,
rate cuts, global commodities, housing, equities price bubbles burst, Housing Market Credit Crunch, Mortgage Default Crisis Early Warning
Wall Street Journal market beat blog Feb.
10, 2008 :Trillion dollar housing recession hedge by
Dr. Warren Huang
Find out breakthrough innovation in proactive structural strategic financial
decision analysis through artificial
intelligence, neural net based expert systems macro, financial, industrial
pricing econometrics integration, simulation and
extension to Engle's Exponential GARCH dynamic times series estimation
co-integration into Granger Causes and Casualty analysis of US
housing, equities, currency, commodities price bubbles, tracking the causes,
onset, recovery, early warning of US/China, global central banks monetary interest rate
policy impact on macroeconomic control inflation, un-employment, housing mortgage crisis, global
housing, equities
, currencies, commodities prices, mortgage rate, nationwide major
cities, counties, trenches housing, demand, new and existing housing prices ,
associated prime, and sub-prime loan credit rating, pre- payment, default,
recovery modeling, ABS, CRE, RMBS, CDO bond spread, hedging fund strategy.
US Fed and Global
central banks, economist, banking, financial, mortgage loan and commercial, investment
banking , hedging fund managers, markets analysts
have been ignoring Dr. Warren Huang
warning on Asset Prices Bubbles at Kula Lumpur, Sept.
2002 to Malaysia central banks Asset Based Securitization
( ABS/MBS) conference, Singapore, Nov. 5, Nov 25, 2003 Shanghai Euro-events
Asian /US/China Finance, Capital Market
conferences and China economist annual meeting, Fudan University,
Shanghai lecture Dec. 2003 on
Monetary Policy impact on US/Asian/China economic
outlook, capital market housing, stocks, commodities, debt asset prices bubbles
and workshops in San Francisco Silicon Valley , US, May 8, 15 , 2004, and
Nov. 2005 in Beijin China Oil Market conference,
June 2007 Peking University
Financial Risk Management conference lecture,
www.osawh.com
and on Wall Street Journal energy blog, real time economy blog and market beat
blog since Aug 2, 2007 warned
underestimated again on the impact of US dollar depreciation, excessive
rate, tax cuts resulted soaring consumer , housing, auto, business demand drive
oil , commodities, metals housing prices bubbles to 23 year high and
soaring inflation, excessive wealth gain resulted excess liquidity, facing credit tightening, rate hikes, widening bond spread, suffered trillion dollar loss
in bond and stock, housing bubble burst , rate cuts, bail out can not stop credit crunch and loan
default and drag economic into recession, ABS, RMBS, CDO asset
credit and performance downgrade, hedge fund failure through
2008.
www.osawh.com/ABS.html
Workshops Goal : OSA forecasts
maximize risks adjusted return in US housing markets and ABS, RMBS, CDO investments , default
risks early warning fighting housing market recession, credit
crunch, avoided banking , housing, equities, commodities, markets
trillion dollars assets downgrade, value loss
in economic recession.
Workshops Mission:
Setup goal, mission, performance oriented strategic, executive OSA teams,
develop, implement proactive, structural global central banks
monetary policy guidance and control in macro, financial, housing
, energy market economy market forces demand, prices mechanism and loan and ABS assets,
credit rating, prepayment, default, recovery modeling Operations
Simulation Analysis (OSA) strategic investment, forecasts
month ahead, of the emerging credit default, recession trend,
crisis impact on global currency, commodities, equities, bond prices
investment strategy and risks hedging early warning, avoided trillion dollar
housing and global equities allocation investment and markets default
loss.
Workshops
Highlights: The what , why, how and
timing of root causes, onset, recovery, early warning of equities, housing,
commodities asset prices bubble burst, mortgage default , credit,
financial crisis,
recession, bear market correction tracking regulation AB for ABS RMBS, CDO pooled asset credit rating and performance, default, global assets allocations,
with 2008 forecast.
5 Day China Macroeconomic, Housing , equities bubble control and Default
, Credit,Crisis Recession Impact and strategic investment, risk
management Early Warning
5 Day US Macroeconomic, Housing , equities bubble control and Default
credit,Crisis
Recession Impact and strategic investment, risk management
Crisis Early Warning
5 Day UK Macroeconomic, Housing , equities bubble control and Default
credit,Crisis
Recession Impact and strategic investment, risk management
Early Warning
US Macroeconomic, rate cuts , bailout, stimulus impact on , housing , equities, commodities bubble control and Default
credit, Crisis
Recession Impact and strategic investment, risk management Early Warning
Day One: US Macroeconomic rate cuts, fiscal bail out,
stimulus plan impact on recession, currency,
inflation risks, boom and bust cycle credit crisis, recession OSA, Forecasts
morning:
A.
Challenges
and Risks:
Greater
China,
Asian,US
Phase I monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on
Global Housing, Equities, Commodities, Bond, Derivatives Asset Prices Bubble Burst Mechanism and
Sub-prime on Daily Prices Dynamics , resulted
trillion dollar banking, finance, subprime, mortgage, Credit
crisis, Financial , Systemic Risks impact on
Recession and
Phase II Global deep recession impact on
housing price slump and trillion dollars banking, credit, financial
crisis and industrial sectors demand, prices slump and operating
loss
for recessions,
housing, banking, finance, energy material sectors facing correction,
credit
default,
equities,
currency
market risks and
corporate scandals ,China infrastructural program for
sustaining GDP growth and financial , housing market price stability
B.
Opportunities:
China /US banking, finance, capital markets reform for China/global innovative
financial products, and China 568 billion dollar infrastructure stimulus
plan and 10 industrial sectors stimulus plan impact on China 2009 economic
recovery, stock market rebound.
US 8
trillion dollar bail out for housing, banking, finance and trillion
economic stimulus, renewal energy, healthcare, high way, school
construction, tax rebate, job creation
impact on economic recovery and listed companies earning, stock prices markets for Sovereign Wealth Fund,
QFII/QDII investment banking IPO, M/A, ETF, BRIC, Indexing mutual
fund,
Optimal Equities, Commodities,
Housing, Bond , Currency Asset Pricing Mechanism OSA,
long/short allocation, performances,
real
time commodity,
financial futures, derivatives trading, arbitrage,
hedge , pension
fund strategic
wealth management
Monetary Policy Trilemma: Macroeconomic growth , asset prices
bubble , inflation control
and dollar currency depreciation OSA
* Proactive Structural dynamic OSA and EGARCH Granger co-integrations
of US FEd macroeconomic control rate cut solving sub-prime and prime
mortgage credit
crunch problem coping stock, housing bubble
wealth gain and trillion dollar burst wealth loss tracking money supply, interest rate, dollar currency impact on housing, stock prices bubbles,
consumer, business spending,
inflation rate, un-employment rate and inflation rate
* Monetary policy, oil prices, currency, consumer, business spending impact
on inflation rate, GDP, interest rates
Afternoon:
Monetary Policy Trilemma: Currency depreciation and DFI outflow,
market excessive
liquidity
* Interest rate and trade balance impact on daily China RMB, and
Yen, EURO, Pound exchange rates and currency carry trade DFI in asset price
speculation.
* Interest rate, credit tightening impact on asset prices bubble burst , mortgage
default
and mortgage default impact on inflation, GDP, unemployment, recession
Day two: Housing Industry Price Bubble Growth , Control and Burst
impact on, mortgage
loan, credit default, credit, financial crisis CRE, RMBS, default
and recession OSA
Morning:
US Fed monetary , fiscal, economic policy impact on national, regional housing demand and prices
mechanism
* US Fed Monetary Policy macroeconomic control , rate policy
impact on removing excessive asset market liquidity and cool off the
overheated housing price bubble and inflation
.
Afternoon:
US Fed housing bubble burst, loan , credit default financial crisis impact
on stock market crash, economic
recession early warning
* US Fed RMB , EURO, Yen dollar appreciation, monetary, economic, fiscal policy, stock markets price bubble
burst , unemployment impact on
US coastal area ( New York, Miami, LA, SF )housing sales, and
prices OSA forecast
^ Proactive structural US housing personal, corporate, ABS, RMBS, loan credit rating,
securitization asset performance,
prepayment, sub-prime and high end
mortgage loan default and induced stock market crash and economic
recession early warning OSA
Day three: Excessive liquidity, housing demand, prices Impact on
Housing and downstream construction, building material Stock Price
Bubble Growth and Burst, Bear Market Correction OSA
Morning:
US Fed monetary policy impact on housing demand and prices, banking, finance,
construction and construction materials metal, cement industry demand performance
*US Fed Monetary Policy macroeconomic control raise rate 17 times
impact on removing excessive asset market liquidity and banking, finance
stock price performance
* US rate cuts, bail out, stimulus plan impact on housing
loan, construction industry demand and prices.
Afternoon:
* US dollar depreciation, monetary policy, stock markets price bubble,
unemployment, rate cuts impact on coastal area New Your, Miami, LA) housing, prices,
Dow Jones, S&P, NASDAQ stock indices future, price OSA forecast
^ Proactive structural US housing personal, corporate loan credit rating,
prepayment, sub-prime and high end mortgage loan default and banking real estate stock performance early warning OSA
Day four: Consumer ,business, spending impact on housing on oil commodities
, metals upstream/downstream price bubble burst , demand,
profit, stock prices OSA
Morning:
US monetary policy impact on construction material, energy, metal demand,
stock prices, OSA
*US Fed Monetary Policy macroeconomic , housing industry control
impact on housing, construction
material , steel, gold, copper, aluminum metal demand , prices .
* US and global housing bubbles impact on oil, energy
downstream demand, prices.
Afternoon:
* US monetary policy, consumer, business spending impact on housing demand and steel, metals companies profit ,stock
price
^ US monetary policy, consumer, business spending impact on housing demand and energy, downstream companies
profit , stock price OSA
Day five : Proactive structural asset pricing, risks valuation macroeconomic systemic risks and credit, market risk
integration, credit, financial recession crisis early warning OSA
morning:
US country macro-econometric inflation, currency systemic risk.
* US Fed monetary policy, housing industry price control impact on
GDP, inflation and asset price bubbles
* US monetary policy interest rate, trade impact on currency price
mechanism, carry trade money speculation .
Afternoon: Proactive Structural asset prices and risk valuation for crisis,
risks early warning
US equities, bond, commodities, housing price bubbles burst associated market risks, and loan
default crisis
* US housing and equities price bubbles bursts and housing,
equities, futures market price risks early warning
* US twin bubbles burst impact on commercial and investment banking, asset
management loan credit default
risks and ABS, RMBS, CDO credit derivatives, hedging, betting on the wrong direction
resulted trillion dollar loss.
Who Should Attend : Central
banks policy research, commercial, investment banking, real estate mortgage, hedge fund
manager mortgage bond structural finance ABS, RMBS, CDO, securitization
managers, insurance managers, mutual fund , SWF fund managers, government
regulation strategic (top management) , execution (managers )
Workshop Costs/ Benefits :USD 3000 plus Dr. Warren Huang round trip air
fares from San Francisco for full day workshop with unlimited attendees
Workshop recommendation will save billion dollars in betting on the wrong
direction of investment and default
risks, loss, capitalize opportunities in economic slowdown, recession and asset
prices bubbles burst
Reserve by email wh3928@yahoo.com
indicating your favorite time, your office address, and lists of
executives names, title
This improvement in demand will peaking out after t summer demand is decline in Sept.
And most of this demand is among the distress housing slump with housing prices plunged 30- 50 % and foreclosure make even making better bargain.
But the high end luxury housing and commercial real estate just down 10 % have a long way to go in 30- 50 % price correction
According to my research of last 30 years global housing prices bubble bursts price mechanism, despite the average, housing price plugned 32 % from 2006 peak, the high end luxury housing prices still holding up only down 10 %, due to supported by excess liquidity resulted banking finance stock prices rebound and stock makrte 50 % rally. However, these housing prices must crash 30- 50 % by the end of our recession and stock market correction in the year ahead, s we will facing rate hikes resuled double dip recession. Any housing prices bubbles can not be complete, until the high end luxury and commercial real estate make 30- 50 % correctiopn, Any bail can not help , it, just like trillion dollars rebate and rate cuts can not stop housing prices plunged 32 % till now! details can be found on http://www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm http://www.osawh.com/macro.htm http://www.osawh.com/SP500.htm http://www.osawh.com/assetbub.htm