Chinese (文) 
US Subprime Crisis causes and 2008 macroeconomics, currency, equities, housing, commodites prices simulations , Fund asset allocation and markets rIsks, mortgage crisis early warning workshops
(
presented to China Peoples Bank, 24 global central banks governors, risk management confernces since 1999)
 
      Proactive Structural Dynamic Simulation of last 20 years China/US/UK, Asian  Mortgage Defaults Crisis,  Macro-economic inflationary recession, unemplyment targeting, Monetary  interest  rate  policy Impact on mortgage rate, Emerging bull/bear  stocks and housing narket trend , Prices Bubbles burst, Mortgage Loan Credit rating, Prepayment, Defaults, Recovery Modeling, Bond Spread, credit derivaitves pricing in Assets Securitization, Risks Hedging 
             
         
                                 San Francisco, New York   in-house workshops
                by reservation  at your convenient time your office wh3928@yahoo.com                          
                conducted  by Dr. Warren Huang, Pioneer, Global Strategic Management OSA

    Preparing for Macroeconomic control,  rate cuts, global commodities, housing, equities price bubbles burst, Housing Market Credit Crunch, Mortgage Default    Crisis Early Warning 

US subprime causes and impact  OSA
:Comment by Warren Huang Wall Street Journal Market Beat- February 8, 2008 at 12:39 pm
The trouble in sub-prime crisis are due to poor housing , equities, CDO valuation and credit rating
method, which are based on 30 year old statistical, probabilistic models in pricing and default., betting on the wrong side of investment, over-optimistic over US inflation and economy
and housing markets.
As I warned last June , 2007 Peking University, Beijing International Financial Engineering Risk Management Conference to top global investment, housing executives and on this blog last Sept before Fed rate cuts
that rate cuts, can not stop US housing price slump continue into 2008 summer, drag US into recession, US and global stocks into bear market correction, with banking, finance, housing, shares down 50 %, IT, oil, retail and high fliers GOOG, AAPL, PTR shares down 30 %
Only my proactive structural dynamic simulation predicted months, years ahead of the emerging market trend avoided trillion dollar market loss
details can be found on my one day full day workshop Mar.6, Pudong, Shanghai, China world fund 2008
www.osawh.com/fund2008.htm and www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm
 

Trillion dollar housing recession hedge by Dr. Warren Huang

I warned last June , 2007 Peking University, Beijing International Financial Engineering Risk Management Conference and on this blog last Sept before Fed rate cuts
that rate cuts, can not stop US housing price slump continue into 2008 summer, drag US into recession, US and global stocks into bear market correction, with banking, finance, housing, shares down 50 %, IT, oil, retail and high fliers GOOG, AAPL, PTR shares down 30 % Any Hedge fund follow my advice could make trillion dollar in 2007.
details can be found on my one day full day workshop Mar.6, Pudong, Shanghai, China world fund 2008
www.osawh.com/fund2008.htm and
www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm
Comment by Warren Huang Wall Street journal Market Beat Blog- February 8, 2008 at 11:28 am

Challenges and Investment opportunities, risks in 2008 China/US housing prices bubbles burst impact on
inflationary slowdown, stocks, fund, commodities markets outlook

Dr. Warren Huang will be the full day master class workshop lecturer for Terrapinn Fund World China 2008
conference, Shanghai  Pudong Shangri-La hotel, March 6 offer Proactive structural China/global asset pricing, 2008 credit tightening, recession impact on BRIC,Optimal  1xx/xx  long-short hedging, asset allocation strategy 2008

We will provide 5 -day  monetary policy impact on macroeconomic control, inflation, interest rates, currency, commodities,  stocks market , regional housing prices bubbles, securitization assets credits, performance, mortgage default crisis analysis for your loan history  

Find out breakthrough innovation in proactive structural strategic financial decision analysis through artificial intelligence, neural net based expert systems macro, financial, industrial pricing econometrics  integration, simulation  and extension to Engle's Exponential GARCH  dynamic times series estimation co-integration into Granger Causes and Casualty analysis of US  housing, equities, currency, commodities price bubbles, tracking the causes, onset, recovery, early warning of US/China, global central banks monetary  interest rate policy impact on macroeconomic control inflation, un-employment, housing mortgage crisis, global  housing, equities , currencies, commodities prices, mortgage rate, nationwide major cities, counties, trenches housing, demand, new and existing housing prices , associated  prime, and sub-prime loan credit rating, pre- payment,  default, recovery modeling, ABS, CRE,  RMBS, CDO  bond spread, hedging fund strategy.

US Fed and Global central banks, economist, banking, financial, mortgage loan and commercial, investment banking , hedging fund managers,  markets analysts have been ignoring Dr. Warren Huang warning on Asset Prices Bubbles at Kula Lumpur, Sept. 2002 to Malaysia central banks Asset Based Securitization  conference,  Singapore,  Nov. 5, Nov 25, 2003 Shanghai Euro-events Asian /US/China Finance, Capital Market  conferences  and China economist annual meeting, Fudan University, Shanghai lecture Dec. 2003 on Monetary Policy impact on US/Asian/China economic outlook, capital market housing, stocks, commodities, debt asset prices bubbles  and  workshops in San Francisco Silicon Valley , US, May 8, 15 , 2004,  and Nov. 2005 in Beijin China Oil Market conference, June 2007 Peking University Financial Risk Management conference lecture, www.osawh.com  and on Wall Street Journal energy blog, real time economy blog and market beat blog since Aug 2, 2007 warned  underestimated again on the impact of US dollar depreciation, excessive rate, tax cuts resulted soaring consumer , housing, auto, business demand drive oil , commodities, metals  housing  prices bubbles to 23 year high and soaring inflation,  excessive wealth gain resulted excess liquidity, facing credit tightening, rate hikes, widening bond spread,  suffered trillion dollar loss in bond and stock, housing  bubble burst will lead credit crunch  and loan default and drag economic into recession, ABS, RMBS, CDO asset credit and performance downgrade, hedge fund failure  through 2008. www.osawh.com/ABS.html
 

Workshops Goal
:  OSA  forecasts  maximize  risks adjusted return in US housing markets and ABS, RMBS, CDO investments , default risks early warning fighting  housing market recession, credit crunch, avoided  banking , housing, equities, commodities,  markets  trillion dollars assets downgrade, value loss in economic recession. 
Workshops Mission: Setup  goal, mission, performance oriented strategic, executive OSA teams, develop, implement proactive, structural  global central banks monetary policy guidance and control in macro, financial, housing , energy market economy market forces demand, prices mechanism and loan and ABS assets, credit rating, prepayment, default, recovery  modeling Operations Simulation Analysis (OSA)  strategic investment,   forecasts month ahead, of the emerging  credit default, recession  trend, crisis impact on global currency, commodities, equities, bond prices  investment strategy and risks hedging early warning, avoided trillion dollar housing and global equities allocation investment and markets default  loss.

Workshops
Highlights: The what , why, how and timing of root causes, onset, recovery, early warning of equities, housing, commodities bubble burst, mortgage default crisis, recession, bear market correction tracking regulation AB for ABS RMBS, CDO pooled asset credit rating and performance, default, global assets allocations, with 2008 forecast.
 
5 Day China Macroeconomic, Housing , equities bubble control  and Default Crisis Early Warning
5 Day  US  Macroeconomic, Housing , equities bubble control  and Default Crisis Early Warning
5 Day UK  Macroeconomic, Housing , equities bubble control  and Default Crisis Early Warning

US  Macroeconomic, rate cuts , housing , equities, commodities bubble control  and Default Crisis Early Warning

Day One:  US  Macroeconomic  rate cuts, currency, inflation risks, boom and bust cycle OSA, Forecasts
morning:
Monetary Policy Trilemma:  Macroeconomic growth , asset prices bubble , inflation control
and  dollar currency depreciation OSA
 
 * Proactive Structural dynamic OSA and EGARCH Granger co-integrations of   US FEd macroeconomic control rate cut solving sub-prime credit crunch problem coping stock, housing  bubble wealth  gain tracking money supply, interest rate, dollar currency  impact on housing, stock prices bubbles, consumer, business spending, inflation rate, un-employment rate and inflation rate
 * Monetary policy,   oil prices, currency, consumer, business spendig impact on inflation rate, GDP, interest rates
Afternoon:
Monetary Policy Trilemma: Currency  depreciation and DFI  outflow, market excessive liquidity
* Interest rate and trade balance impact on daily China RMB,  and  Yen, EURO, Pound exchange rates and currency carry trade DFI in asset price speculation.
* Interest rate, credit tightening impact on asset prices bubble, mortgage default
and mortgage default impact on inflation, GDP, unemployment, recession

Day two: Housing Industry  Price Bubble Growth , Control and Burst, mortgage loan, CRE, RMBS,  default OSA
Morning:
 US Fed monetary policy impact on housing demand and prices
* US Fed Monetary Policy macroeconomic control , rate cuts impact on removing excessive asset  market liquidity and cool off the overheated housing price bubble  and inflation
* US Fed  housing industry price control policy and impact on China regional housing supply, demand and prices.
Afternoon:
 US Fed housing bubble burst, loan default , stock market crash, economic recession early warning
*  US Fed RMB , EURO, Yen Canadian dollar appreciation, monetary policy, stock markets price bubble,   impact on
  US  coastal area (  New York, Miami, LA, SF )housing sales, and prices OSA forecast
^ Proactive structural US  housing personal, corporate, ABS, RMBS,  loan credit rating, securitization asset performance, prepayment, sub-prime and high end  mortgage loan default  and induced stock market crash and economic recession early warning  OSA 

Day three: Excessive liquidity, housing prices Impact on Stock Price Bubble Growth and Burst, Bear Market Correction  OSA
Morning:
 US Fed monetary policy impact on housing demand and prices, banking, finance, construction industry performance
*US Fed Monetary Policy macroeconomic control ( raise rate 5 time, bank deposit ratio 7 times)
impact on removing excessive asset  market liquidity and banking, finance stock price performance
* US   rate cuts impact on  housing loan, construction industry demand and  prices.
Afternoon:
* US dollar depreciation, monetary policy, stock markets price bubble,  unemployment, rate cuts impact on  China coastal area  New Your, Miami, LA) housing, prices, Dow Jones, S&P, NASDAQ stock indices future,  price OSA forecast
^ Proactive structural US  housing personal, corporate loan credit rating, prepayment, sub-prime and high end
 mortgage loan default and banking real estate stock performance early warning  OSA 
Day four:  Consumer business, housing demand impact on oil commodities upstream/downstream demand, profit, stock prices OSA
  Morning:
US monetary policy impact on construction material, energy, metal demand, stock  prices, OSA
*US Fed  Monetary Policy macroeconomic , housing industry control impact on housing, construction
material , steel, gold, copper, aluminum metal demand , prices .
* US and global housing bubbles impact on  oil, energy downstream demand, prices.
Afternoon:
*  US monetary policy,  consumer, business spending impact on housing demand and steel, metals companies profit ,stock price
^ US monetary policy,  consumer, business spending    impact on housing demand and  energy, downstream companies profit , stock price OSA
Day five : Proactive macroeconomic systemic risks and credit, market risk integration, crisis early warning  OSA
morning:
US country macro-econometric inflation, currency systemic risk.
*  US Fed  monetary policy, housing industry price control impact on GDP, inflation and price bubbles
*  US monetary policy interest rate, trade impact on currency price mechanism, carry trade money speculation  .
Afternoon:
US equities, housing price bubbles burst associated market risks, and loan default crisis
*  US  housing and equities price bubbles bursts and housing, equities, futures market price risks early warning
*  US twin bubbles burst impact on commercial and investment banking, asset management loan credit default
risks and ABS, RMBS, CDO credit derivatives, hedging,  betting on the wrong direction resulted trillion dollar loss.
 
 
Who Should Attend : Central banks policy research, commercial, investment banking, real estate mortgage, hedge fund manager mortgage bond structural finance ABS, RMBS, CDO, securitization managers, insurance managers, mutual fund , SWF fund managers, government regulation strategic (top management) , execution (managers )  

Workshop Costs/ Benefits :USD 3000  plus Dr. Warren Huang round trip air fares from San Francisco  for full day workshop with unlimited attendees 
Workshop recommendation will save billion dollars in betting on the wrong direction of investment and default risks, loss, capitalize opportunities in economic slowdown, recession and asset prices bubbles burst

  Reserve by email  wh3928@yahoo.com  indicating your  favorite  time, your office address, and lists of executives names, title