Chinese (中文)
US Subprime Crisis causes and 2008 macroeconomics, currency,
equities, housing, commodites prices simulations , Fund asset allocation and markets rIsks, mortgage
crisis early warning workshops
(
presented to
China Peoples Bank, 24 global central banks governors, risk management
confernces since 1999)
Proactive Structural Dynamic Simulation
of last 20 years China/US/UK, Asian
Mortgage Defaults Crisis, Macro-economic inflationary recession, unemplyment targeting, Monetary interest rate
policy Impact on mortgage rate, Emerging bull/bear stocks and
housing narket trend , Prices Bubbles burst, Mortgage
Loan Credit rating, Prepayment, Defaults, Recovery Modeling, Bond Spread, credit derivaitves pricing in Assets Securitization,
Risks Hedging
San Francisco, New York in-house workshops
by reservation at your convenient time
your office
wh3928@yahoo.com
conducted by Dr.
Warren Huang, Pioneer, Global Strategic Management OSA
Preparing for Macroeconomic control, rate cuts, global commodities, housing, equities price bubbles burst, Housing Market Credit Crunch, Mortgage Default Crisis Early Warning
Trillion dollar housing recession hedge by Dr. Warren Huang
Challenges and Investment opportunities,
risks in 2008 China/US housing prices bubbles
burst impact on
inflationary slowdown, stocks, fund, commodities markets outlook
Dr. Warren Huang will be the full day master
class workshop lecturer for Terrapinn Fund World China 2008
conference, Shanghai Pudong Shangri-La hotel, March 6 offer Proactive
structural China/global asset pricing,
2008 credit tightening, recession impact on BRIC,Optimal 1xx/xx
long-short hedging, asset allocation
strategy 2008
We will provide
5 -day monetary policy impact on macroeconomic control, inflation,
interest rates, currency, commodities, stocks market , regional housing
prices bubbles, securitization assets credits, performance, mortgage default crisis analysis for your
loan history
Find out breakthrough innovation in proactive structural strategic financial
decision analysis through artificial
intelligence, neural net based expert systems macro, financial, industrial
pricing econometrics integration, simulation and
extension to Engle's Exponential GARCH dynamic times series estimation
co-integration into Granger Causes and Casualty analysis of US
housing, equities, currency, commodities price bubbles, tracking the causes,
onset, recovery, early warning of US/China, global central banks monetary interest rate
policy impact on macroeconomic control inflation, un-employment, housing mortgage crisis, global
housing, equities
, currencies, commodities prices, mortgage rate, nationwide major
cities, counties, trenches housing, demand, new and existing housing prices ,
associated prime, and sub-prime loan credit rating, pre- payment, default,
recovery modeling, ABS, CRE, RMBS, CDO bond spread, hedging fund strategy.
US Fed and Global
central banks, economist, banking, financial, mortgage loan and commercial, investment
banking , hedging fund managers, markets analysts
have been ignoring Dr. Warren Huang
warning on Asset Prices Bubbles at Kula Lumpur, Sept.
2002 to Malaysia central banks Asset Based Securitization conference, Singapore, Nov. 5, Nov 25, 2003 Shanghai Euro-events
Asian /US/China Finance, Capital Market
conferences and China economist annual meeting, Fudan University,
Shanghai lecture Dec. 2003 on
Monetary Policy impact on US/Asian/China economic
outlook, capital market housing, stocks, commodities, debt asset prices bubbles
and workshops in San Francisco Silicon Valley , US, May 8, 15 , 2004, and
Nov. 2005 in Beijin China Oil Market conference,
June 2007 Peking University
Financial Risk Management conference lecture,
www.osawh.com
and on Wall Street Journal energy blog, real time economy blog and market beat
blog since Aug 2, 2007 warned
underestimated again on the impact of US dollar depreciation, excessive
rate, tax cuts resulted soaring consumer , housing, auto, business demand drive
oil , commodities, metals housing prices bubbles to 23 year high and
soaring inflation, excessive wealth gain resulted excess liquidity, facing credit tightening, rate hikes, widening bond spread, suffered trillion dollar loss
in bond and stock, housing bubble burst will lead credit crunch and loan
default and drag economic into recession, ABS, RMBS, CDO asset
credit and performance downgrade, hedge fund failure through
2008.
www.osawh.com/ABS.html
Workshops Goal : OSA forecasts
maximize risks adjusted return in US housing markets and ABS, RMBS, CDO investments , default
risks early warning fighting housing market recession, credit
crunch, avoided banking , housing, equities, commodities, markets
trillion dollars assets downgrade, value loss
in economic recession.
Workshops Mission:
Setup goal, mission, performance oriented strategic, executive OSA teams,
develop, implement proactive, structural global central banks
monetary policy guidance and control in macro, financial, housing
, energy market economy market forces demand, prices mechanism and loan and ABS assets,
credit rating, prepayment, default, recovery modeling Operations
Simulation Analysis (OSA) strategic investment, forecasts
month ahead, of the emerging credit default, recession trend,
crisis impact on global currency, commodities, equities, bond prices
investment strategy and risks hedging early warning, avoided trillion dollar
housing and global equities allocation investment and markets default
loss.
Workshops
Highlights: The what , why, how and
timing of root causes, onset, recovery, early warning of equities, housing,
commodities bubble burst, mortgage default crisis,
recession, bear market correction tracking regulation AB for ABS RMBS, CDO pooled asset credit rating and performance, default, global assets allocations,
with 2008 forecast.
5 Day China Macroeconomic, Housing , equities bubble control and Default
Crisis Early Warning
5 Day US Macroeconomic, Housing , equities bubble control and Default
Crisis Early Warning
5 Day UK Macroeconomic, Housing , equities bubble control and Default
Crisis Early Warning
US Macroeconomic, rate cuts , housing , equities, commodities bubble control and Default
Crisis Early Warning
Day One: US Macroeconomic rate cuts, currency,
inflation risks, boom and bust cycle OSA, Forecasts
morning:
Monetary Policy Trilemma: Macroeconomic growth , asset prices
bubble , inflation control
and dollar currency depreciation OSA
* Proactive Structural dynamic OSA and EGARCH Granger co-integrations
of US FEd macroeconomic control rate cut solving sub-prime credit
crunch problem coping stock, housing bubble
wealth gain tracking money supply, interest rate, dollar currency impact on housing, stock prices bubbles,
consumer, business spending,
inflation rate, un-employment rate and inflation rate
* Monetary policy, oil prices, currency, consumer, business
spendig impact
on inflation rate, GDP, interest rates
Afternoon:
Monetary Policy Trilemma: Currency depreciation and DFI outflow,
market excessive
liquidity
* Interest rate and trade balance impact on daily China RMB, and
Yen, EURO, Pound exchange rates and currency carry trade DFI in asset price
speculation.
* Interest rate, credit tightening impact on asset prices bubble, mortgage
default
and mortgage default impact on inflation, GDP, unemployment, recession
Day two: Housing Industry Price Bubble Growth , Control and Burst, mortgage
loan, CRE, RMBS, default OSA
Morning:
US Fed monetary policy impact on housing demand and prices
* US Fed Monetary Policy macroeconomic control , rate cuts
impact on removing excessive asset market liquidity and cool off the
overheated housing price bubble and inflation
* US Fed housing industry price control policy and impact on China
regional housing
supply, demand and prices.
Afternoon:
US Fed housing bubble burst, loan default , stock market crash, economic
recession early warning
* US Fed RMB , EURO, Yen Canadian dollar appreciation, monetary policy, stock markets price bubble, impact on
US coastal area ( New York, Miami, LA, SF )housing sales, and
prices OSA forecast
^ Proactive structural US housing personal, corporate, ABS, RMBS, loan credit rating,
securitization asset performance,
prepayment, sub-prime and high end
mortgage loan default and induced stock market crash and economic
recession early warning OSA
Day three: Excessive liquidity, housing prices Impact on Stock Price
Bubble Growth and Burst, Bear Market Correction OSA
Morning:
US Fed monetary policy impact on housing demand and prices, banking, finance,
construction industry performance
*US Fed Monetary Policy macroeconomic control ( raise rate 5 time,
bank deposit ratio 7 times)
impact on removing excessive asset market liquidity and banking, finance
stock price performance
* US rate cuts impact on housing
loan, construction industry demand and prices.
Afternoon:
* US dollar depreciation, monetary policy, stock markets price bubble,
unemployment, rate cuts impact on China coastal area New Your, Miami, LA) housing, prices,
Dow Jones, S&P, NASDAQ stock indices future, price OSA forecast
^ Proactive structural US housing personal, corporate loan credit rating,
prepayment, sub-prime and high end
mortgage loan default and banking real estate stock performance early warning OSA
Day four: Consumer business, housing demand impact on oil commodities upstream/downstream demand,
profit, stock prices OSA
Morning:
US monetary policy impact on construction material, energy, metal demand,
stock prices, OSA
*US Fed Monetary Policy macroeconomic , housing industry control
impact on housing, construction
material , steel, gold, copper, aluminum metal demand , prices .
* US and global housing bubbles impact on oil, energy
downstream demand, prices.
Afternoon:
* US monetary policy, consumer, business spending impact on housing demand and steel, metals companies profit ,stock
price
^ US monetary policy, consumer, business spending impact on housing demand and energy, downstream companies
profit , stock price OSA
Day five : Proactive macroeconomic systemic risks and credit, market risk
integration, crisis early warning OSA
morning:
US country macro-econometric inflation, currency systemic risk.
* US Fed monetary policy, housing industry price control impact on
GDP, inflation and price bubbles
* US monetary policy interest rate, trade impact on currency price
mechanism, carry trade money speculation .
Afternoon:
US equities, housing price bubbles burst associated market risks, and loan
default crisis
* US housing and equities price bubbles bursts and housing,
equities, futures market price risks early warning
* US twin bubbles burst impact on commercial and investment banking, asset
management loan credit default
risks and ABS, RMBS, CDO credit derivatives, hedging, betting on the wrong direction
resulted trillion dollar loss.
Who Should Attend : Central
banks policy research, commercial, investment banking, real estate mortgage, hedge fund
manager mortgage bond structural finance ABS, RMBS, CDO, securitization
managers, insurance managers, mutual fund , SWF fund managers, government
regulation strategic (top management) , execution (managers )
Workshop Costs/ Benefits :USD 3000 plus Dr. Warren Huang round trip air
fares from San Francisco for full day workshop with unlimited attendees
Workshop recommendation will save billion dollars in betting on the wrong
direction of investment and default
risks, loss, capitalize opportunities in economic slowdown, recession and asset
prices bubbles burst
Reserve by email wh3928@yahoo.com
indicating your favorite time, your office address, and lists of
executives names, title
:Comment by Warren Huang Wall Street Journal Market Beat- February 8, 2008 at 12:39 pm
The trouble in sub-prime crisis are due to poor housing , equities, CDO valuation and credit rating
method, which are based on 30 year old statistical, probabilistic models in pricing and default., betting on the wrong side of investment, over-optimistic over US inflation and economy
and housing markets.
As I warned last June , 2007 Peking University, Beijing International Financial Engineering Risk Management Conference to top global investment, housing executives and on this blog last Sept before Fed rate cuts
that rate cuts, can not stop US housing price slump continue into 2008 summer, drag US into recession, US and global stocks into bear market correction, with banking, finance, housing, shares down 50 %, IT, oil, retail and high fliers GOOG, AAPL, PTR shares down 30 %
Only my proactive structural dynamic simulation predicted months, years ahead of the emerging market trend avoided trillion dollar market loss
details can be found on my one day full day workshop Mar.6, Pudong, Shanghai, China world fund 2008
www.osawh.com/fund2008.htm and www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm