Chinese (中文) 
US Subprime , Prime, mortgage, Credit, Financial Crisis Recession causes , Bailout, economic stimulus Impact on Housing Industry Demand, Prices and Credit Default Mechanism, 2009 economic recession, currency, equities, housing, commodites , derivatives  asset bubbles prices burst simulations
 multiclass Fund asset allocation and markets rIsks, mortgage crisis early warning workshops
( presented to China Peoples Bank, 24 global central banks governors, risk management confernces since 1999)
        Proactive Structural Dynamic Simulation of last 20 years China/US/UK, Asian  Mortgage Defaults Crisis,  Macro-economic inflationary recession, unemplyment targeting, Monetary  interest  rate  policy Impact on mortgage rate, Emerging bull/bear  stocks and housing narket trend , Prices Bubbles burst, Mortgage Loan Credit rating, Prepayment, Defaults, Recovery Modeling, Bond Spread, credit derivaitves pricing in Assets Securitization, Risks Hedging 
                       
                                 San Francisco, New York   in-house workshops
                by reservation  at your convenient time your office wh3928@yahoo.com                          
                conducted  by Dr. Warren Huang, Pioneer, Global Strategic Management OSA

    Preparing for Macroeconomic control,  rate cuts, global commodities, housing, equities price bubbles burst, Housing Market Credit Crunch, Mortgage Default    Crisis Early Warning 

              Strategic PGFCR  :       Proactive Global Housing, Credit,  Financial Crisis, Recession Operations Simulation) Forecast, complete coverage of  years, months, ahead of lat 30 years and current housing, equities, commodities , MBS, ABS asset prices bubbles formation, boom and bust, early warning of  derivatives hedging resulted financial crisis, avoided betting on the wrong side of investment resulted  trillion dollar loss, deep recession and its impact through global macro, financial, industrial, trade economy integration and impact on daily capital market asset price mechanisms  

Do not miss  on 2009 China/US economic stimulus impact on recession,, financial  market outlook Trillion Dollar Recession Hedge Optimal long-short  strategy lectures 
by Dr. Warren Huang lectures, panelist speakers on financial crisis, recession strategy  Feb, March Hong Kong, Pudong , China QFII/QDII summit  conferences 2009

By two master hands controlling global asset prices  mechanism pioneer  Dr. Warren Huang (黃華南博士) Pioneer, proactive structural dynamic global inflation, macro economy, daily financial markets interest rates, currency, stock, bond, derivatives, housing, commodities, oil asset pricing and risks valuation markets fundamentals price mechanism, accurately warned on Wall Street Journal Market beat Blog Sept.19, 2007 and Mar 5, 2008 masterclass  workshop China fund world 2008, Pudong, China  to Goldman Sach managing directors JPM, UBS and 150 China QDII/QFII fund managers that  US Fed aggressive rate cuts drag dollar to 1.53-1.65 EURO, 95- 108 Yen, economic stimulus boost consumer spending on gasoline and jet fuel summer, demand, driving gasoline , heating oil to 415, oil price to 121-145, commodity price double, will peak out as US dollar rebound follow Fed ending rate cuts cycle , can not stop sub-prime crisis spreading, regional  housing price slump 30-50 %  and credit crisis, crunch crisis continue through  2009 drag economy into 2009 double dip deep recession resulted trillion housing and stock market loss and US, global stock indices bear market  50 - 70 % correction , Dow Jones test 6500-7000-  NASDAQ PLUNGE testing  1250- 1500 and high fliers (GOOG, PTR, AAPL) , IT, retail stocks facing  correction,    with banking, finance, housing share price plunge 70- 90   %, dollar making to new low 90 Yen,   commodity prices doubled,  and bubble burst plunge 50 % in recession widening bond , CDS spread and failure in MBS/CDO, Bear Stearn 30 billion dollar MBS hedge fund and government steps rescue Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac bail out,  despite Fed rate cuts . He also warned top global QFII management on Peking Univ June 2007 International Financial Engineering Conference that China overheated housing, stock market wealth gain resulted inflation over 8.7 % will lead to China Peoples Bank credit tightening to remove excessive liquidity, Banking housing, stock markets follow US housing price slump 30- 50 %, US  - 6.1 GDP contraction, and -10 to - 20 % contraction for Asian countries deep recession, bear market correction, with Shanghai A testing  1700  rebound to 3200 in  2009 overheated in the first half  due to 568 billion economic stimulus, increased money supply from 15 % to 25 %, fixed investment from 22 to 33 %., oil price rebound from 33 to 72 summer 2009, and plunge to 55, due to soaring jobless rate and falling housing price resulted deep recession continue through 2009.
US stock market 30 % V- shape rebound from March 2009 low, leading to global stock price bubble appears again ( with Taiwan, China , Hong Kong, most serious)   speculating recession recovery due to overoptimistic over economic  recovery  by China/US stimulus package, are facing bubble burst in summer 2009 correction due to disappointing  L- shape  slow recession recovery

Comment by Warren Huang  Wall Street Journal Market Beat- November 17, 2008 at 4:50 pm
Based on my 30 years proactive structural simulation of last 30 years global monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on inflation, interest rateas, currency, commodities, equities, bond, housing asset prices, It correlation constant ot 0.95, error of 3.5 %,
accurately predicted last 30 years asset price boom and bust, and current US housing prices bubble burst resulted equities, commodity, oil, asset price 50- 70 % plunge, asset bubble burst, drag economy into recession details on www.osawh.com/recession.html www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm www.osawh.com/commody.html www.osawh.com/SP500.htm


Phase I  monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on Global Housing, Equities, Commodities, Bond, Derivatives Asset Prices  Bubble Burst Mechanism and Sub-prime on Daily Prices Dynamics , Subprime, mortgage, Credit crisis, Financial , Systemic Risks   impact on  Recession and
Phase II Global recession impact on banking, credit, financial crisis and industrial sectors demand, prices slump and operating loss
 for
Asian private equities, leverage finance acquisition summit  , Feb 16- 17, Hong, Kong  by Euromoney
 China Derivatives, Summit Credit, Financial Crisis, Recession Risks  Derivatives Hedging  2009  Conference, Pudong, China, March, 2009      by   EUROMONEY 
             Trillion Dollar Recession Risks Hedging  2009  Conference, Pudong, China, March, 2009   program           China   
China/US 2009 Housing, Financial Crisis Impact on  Recession,, and Recession , Economic Stimulus Impact on  Economy , Capital Markets    Forecast by Dr. Warren Huang
Proactive Structural Trillion Dollar Recession Hedging, Multiclass Asset, Derivatives Allocation Strategy    
               by Dr. Warren Huang  website: www.osawh.com   Hyatt Regency, Pudong, Shanghai, Mar24- 25, 2009
 and
 Global/China multiclass (Oil, commodity, Equities, Bond, Housing Asset pricing and allocation    by
World Renown Proactive Structural Asset Pricing pioneer  Dr. Warren Huang
 Post- Conference Master Class Strategic Multi-class Asset Allocation Workshop, Terrapinn                  Chinese
    Proactive Structural Multiclass Asset Prices Mechanism and  China/Global  Fund World,  Asset Allocation  2008,- 2009
                  by Dr. Warren Huang, Pioneer OSA Global Strategic Management      Proactive Recession Strategy   
                                            Shangri-La Hotel, Pudong, Shanghai, Mar 4- 6, 2008
                                  Reservation   for your in house workshop   osawhh@sina.com/  wh3928@yahoo.com  
   risk management panelist and   planned  full day master class workshop lecturer for  Terrapinn China Fund World  2008  conference, offer Proactive structural China/global   asset pricing, 2008, credit tightening, recession impact on Energy, Commodity,  multi-calss assets  long-short hedging, asset  allocation strategy to 150 China/Global fund manager, investment bank CEO, executive, China QFII/QDII executives


Comment by Warren Huang Wall Street Journal Real Time Economics- Blog July 23 12.37 PM,2009,

  • This seasonal sales rebound as the increasing demand from April to June into the peak housing sales demand into summer.
    This improvement in demand will peaking out after t summer demand is decline in Sept.
    And most of this demand is among the distress housing slump with housing prices plunged 30- 50 % and foreclosure make even making better bargain.
    But the high end luxury housing and commercial real estate just down 10 % have a long way to go in 30- 50 % price correction
    According to my research of last 30 years global housing prices bubble bursts price mechanism, despite the average, housing price plugned 32 % from 2006 peak, the high end luxury housing prices still holding up only down 10 %, due to supported by excess liquidity resulted banking finance stock prices rebound and stock makrte 50 % rally. However, these housing prices must crash 30- 50 % by the end of our recession and stock market correction in the year ahead, s we will facing rate hikes resuled double dip recession. Any housing prices bubbles can not be complete, until the high end luxury and commercial real estate make 30- 50 % correctiopn, Any bail can not help , it, just like trillion dollars rebate and rate cuts can not stop housing prices plunged 32 % till now! details can be found on http://www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm http://www.osawh.com/macro.htm http://www.osawh.com/SP500.htm http://www.osawh.com/assetbub.htm

by Warren Huang Wall Street Journal Real Time Economics- Blog June 11, 12.37 PM,2009,

Stock market speculators using May retail sales improvement fail to lift the stocks due to this comes out mostly from summer travel gasoline sales with price up from 260 to 320 in May
While housing markets sales rebound in distress area due to economic stimulus 8000 tax credit for first time buyers. leading to May foreclosure drop 6 % from April. However, the soaring jobless rate at 9.4 %, ( despite job loss in May drop to 345000 and claim drop from 663000 to 601000 will not be sustainable). With unsold house inventory stood at 11 month, housing price slump continue to spread into wider area, due to soaring jobless rate. and foreclosure rate will be back to 10 % due to soaring 30 year mortgage rate from 4.6 % to 5.6 %. will drag future housing price and consumer retail spending
details on http://www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm   http://www.osawh.com/macro.html  http://www.osawh.com/SP500.htm   http://www.osawh.com/macro.html

US subprime and prime mortgage crisis causes and impact  OSA
:Comment by Warren Huang Wall Street Journal Market Beat- February 8, 2008 at 12:39 pm
The trouble in sub-prime crisis are due to housing price slump from overpriced bubble in  poor housing , equities, CDO valuation and credit rating method, which are based on 30 year old statistical, probabilistic models in pricing and default., betting on the wrong side of investment, over-optimistic over US inflation and economy and housing markets.
As  I warned last June , 2007 Peking University, Beijing International Financial Engineering Risk Management Conference to top global investment, housing executives and on this blog last Sept before Fed rate cuts
that rate cuts, can not stop US housing price slump continue into 2008 summer, drag US into recession, US and global stocks into bear market correction, with banking, finance, housing, shares down 50 %, -70 %IT, oil, retail and high fliers GOOG, AAPL, PTR , GS shares down 50 % Only my proactive structural dynamic simulation predicted months, years ahead of the emerging market trend avoided trillion dollar market loss  details can be found on my one day full day workshop Mar.6, Pudong, Shanghai, China world fund 2008 www.osawh.com/fund2008.htm and www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm

Wall Street Journal market beat blog Feb. 10, 2008 :Trillion dollar housing recession hedge by Dr. Warren Huang

I warned last June , 2007 Peking University, Beijing International Financial Engineering Risk Management Conference and on this blog last Sept before Fed rate cuts
that rate cuts, can not stop US housing price slump continue into 2008- 09, drag US into recession, US and global stocks into bear market correction, with banking, finance, housing, shares down 50 %, IT, oil, retail and high fliers GOOG, AAPL, PTR shares down 30 % Any Hedge fund follow my advice could make trillion dollar in 2007.
details can be found on my one day full day workshop Mar.6, Pudong, Shanghai, China world fund 2008 www.osawh.com/fund2008.htm and www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm
Comment by Warren Huang Wall Street journal Market Beat Blog- February 8, 2008 at 11:28 am

 Find out breakthrough innovation in proactive structural strategic financial decision analysis through artificial intelligence, neural net based expert systems macro, financial, industrial pricing econometrics  integration, simulation  and extension to Engle's Exponential GARCH  dynamic times series estimation co-integration into Granger Causes and Casualty analysis of US  housing, equities, currency, commodities price bubbles, tracking the causes, onset, recovery, early warning of US/China, global central banks monetary  interest rate policy impact on macroeconomic control inflation, un-employment, housing mortgage crisis, global  housing, equities , currencies, commodities prices, mortgage rate, nationwide major cities, counties, trenches housing, demand, new and existing housing prices , associated  prime, and sub-prime loan credit rating, pre- payment,  default, recovery modeling, ABS, CRE,  RMBS, CDO  bond spread, hedging fund strategy.

US Fed and Global central banks, economist, banking, financial, mortgage loan and commercial, investment banking , hedging fund managers,  markets analysts have been ignoring Dr. Warren Huang warning on Asset Prices Bubbles at Kula Lumpur, Sept. 2002 to Malaysia central banks Asset Based Securitization ( ABS/MBS)  conference,  Singapore,  Nov. 5, Nov 25, 2003 Shanghai Euro-events Asian /US/China Finance, Capital Market  conferences  and China economist annual meeting, Fudan University, Shanghai lecture Dec. 2003 on Monetary Policy impact on US/Asian/China economic outlook, capital market housing, stocks, commodities, debt asset prices bubbles  and  workshops in San Francisco Silicon Valley , US, May 8, 15 , 2004,  and Nov. 2005 in Beijin China Oil Market conference, June 2007 Peking University Financial Risk Management conference lecture, www.osawh.com  and on Wall Street Journal energy blog, real time economy blog and market beat blog since Aug 2, 2007 warned  underestimated again on the impact of US dollar depreciation, excessive rate, tax cuts resulted soaring consumer , housing, auto, business demand drive oil , commodities, metals  housing  prices bubbles to 23 year high and soaring inflation,  excessive wealth gain resulted excess liquidity, facing credit tightening, rate hikes, widening bond spread,  suffered trillion dollar loss in bond and stock, housing  bubble burst , rate cuts, bail out can not stop  credit crunch  and loan default and drag economic into recession, ABS, RMBS, CDO asset credit and performance downgrade, hedge fund failure  through 2008. www.osawh.com/ABS.html
 
Workshops Goal :  OSA  forecasts  maximize  risks adjusted return in US housing markets and ABS, RMBS, CDO investments , default risks early warning fighting  housing market recession, credit crunch, avoided  banking , housing, equities, commodities,  markets  trillion dollars assets downgrade, value loss in economic recession. 
Workshops Mission: Setup  goal, mission, performance oriented strategic, executive OSA teams, develop, implement proactive, structural  global central banks monetary policy guidance and control in macro, financial, housing , energy market economy market forces demand, prices mechanism and loan and ABS assets, credit rating, prepayment, default, recovery  modeling Operations Simulation Analysis (OSA)  strategic investment,   forecasts month ahead, of the emerging  credit default, recession  trend, crisis impact on global currency, commodities, equities, bond prices  investment strategy and risks hedging early warning, avoided trillion dollar housing and global equities allocation investment and markets default  loss.

Workshops Highlights: The what , why, how and timing of root causes, onset, recovery, early warning of equities, housing, commodities  asset prices bubble burst, mortgage default , credit, financial crisis, recession, bear market correction tracking regulation AB for ABS RMBS, CDO pooled asset credit rating and performance, default, global assets allocations, with 2008 forecast.
 
5 Day China Macroeconomic, Housing , equities bubble control  and Default , Credit,Crisis Recession Impact and strategic investment, risk management  Early Warning
5 Day  US  Macroeconomic, Housing , equities bubble control  and Default credit,Crisis Recession Impact and strategic investment, risk management   Crisis Early Warning
5 Day UK  Macroeconomic, Housing , equities bubble control  and Default credit,Crisis Recession Impact and strategic investment, risk management    Early Warning

US  Macroeconomic, rate cuts , bailout, stimulus impact on , housing , equities, commodities bubble control  and Default credit, Crisis Recession Impact and strategic investment, risk management  Early Warning 

Day One:  US  Macroeconomic  rate cuts, fiscal bail out, stimulus plan impact on recession, currency, inflation risks, boom and bust cycle credit crisis, recession  OSA, Forecasts
morning:

A.       Challenges and Risks:  Greater China, Asian,US    Phase I  monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on Global Housing, Equities, Commodities, Bond, Derivatives Asset Prices  Bubble Burst Mechanism and Sub-prime on Daily Prices Dynamics , resulted trillion dollar banking, finance, subprime, mortgage, Credit crisis, Financial , Systemic Risks   impact on  Recession and
Phase II Global deep recession   impact on housing price slump and trillion dollars banking, credit, financial crisis and industrial sectors demand, prices slump and operating loss
 for recessions, housing, banking, finance, energy material sectors facing correction, credit default, equities, currency market risks and corporate scandals ,China infrastructural program for sustaining GDP growth and financial , housing market price stability

B.       Opportunities: China /US banking, finance, capital markets reform for China/global innovative financial products, and China  568 billion dollar infrastructure stimulus plan and 10 industrial sectors stimulus plan impact on China 2009 economic recovery, stock market rebound.

US  8 trillion dollar  bail out for housing, banking, finance and trillion economic stimulus,  renewal energy, healthcare, high way,  school construction, tax rebate, job creation impact on economic recovery and listed companies earning, stock prices markets for  Sovereign Wealth Fund, QFII/QDII investment banking IPO, M/A, ETF, BRIC, Indexing mutual fund, Optimal Equities, Commodities, Housing, Bond , Currency Asset Pricing Mechanism OSA, long/short allocation, performances, real time commodity, financial futures, derivatives trading, arbitrage, hedge , pension fund  strategic wealth management

Monetary Policy Trilemma:  Macroeconomic growth , asset prices bubble , inflation control and  dollar currency depreciation OSA
 
 * Proactive Structural dynamic OSA and EGARCH Granger co-integrations of   US FEd macroeconomic control rate cut solving sub-prime and prime mortgage credit crunch problem coping stock, housing  bubble wealth  gain and trillion dollar burst wealth loss tracking money supply, interest rate, dollar currency  impact on housing, stock prices bubbles, consumer, business spending, inflation rate, un-employment rate and inflation rate
 * Monetary policy,  oil prices, currency, consumer, business spending impact on inflation rate, GDP, interest rates
Afternoon:
Monetary Policy Trilemma: Currency  depreciation and DFI  outflow, market excessive liquidity
* Interest rate and trade balance impact on daily China RMB,  and  Yen, EURO, Pound exchange rates and currency carry trade DFI in asset price speculation.
* Interest rate, credit tightening impact on asset prices bubble burst , mortgage default and mortgage default impact on inflation, GDP, unemployment, recession

Day two: Housing Industry  Price Bubble Growth , Control and Burst impact on, mortgage loan, credit default, credit, financial crisis CRE, RMBS,  default  and recession OSA
Morning:
 US Fed monetary , fiscal, economic policy impact on national, regional housing demand and prices mechanism
* US Fed Monetary Policy macroeconomic control , rate policy  impact on removing excessive asset  market liquidity and cool off the overheated housing price bubble  and inflation
.
Afternoon:
 US Fed housing bubble burst, loan , credit default financial crisis impact on stock market crash, economic recession early warning
*  US Fed RMB , EURO, Yen dollar appreciation, monetary, economic, fiscal policy, stock markets price bubble burst , unemployment  impact on   US  coastal area (  New York, Miami, LA, SF )housing sales, and prices OSA forecast
^ Proactive structural US  housing personal, corporate, ABS, RMBS,  loan credit rating, securitization asset performance, prepayment, sub-prime and high end  mortgage loan default  and induced stock market crash and economic recession early warning  OSA 

Day three: Excessive liquidity, housing  demand, prices Impact on Housing and downstream construction, building  material Stock Price Bubble Growth and Burst, Bear Market Correction  OSA
Morning:
 US Fed monetary policy impact on housing demand and prices, banking, finance, construction  and construction materials metal, cement industry demand performance
*US Fed Monetary Policy macroeconomic control raise rate 17 times impact on removing excessive asset  market liquidity and banking, finance stock price performance
* US   rate cuts, bail out, stimulus plan impact on  housing loan, construction industry demand and  prices.
Afternoon:
* US dollar depreciation, monetary policy, stock markets price bubble,  unemployment, rate cuts impact on  coastal area  New Your, Miami, LA) housing, prices, Dow Jones, S&P, NASDAQ stock indices future,  price OSA forecast
^ Proactive structural US  housing personal, corporate loan credit rating, prepayment, sub-prime and high end mortgage loan default and banking real estate stock performance early warning  OSA 
Day four:  Consumer ,business, spending impact on housing   on oil commodities , metals upstream/downstream price bubble burst , demand, profit, stock prices OSA
  Morning:
US monetary policy impact on construction material, energy, metal demand, stock  prices, OSA
*US Fed  Monetary Policy macroeconomic , housing industry control impact on housing, construction
material , steel, gold, copper, aluminum metal demand , prices .
* US and global housing bubbles impact on  oil, energy downstream demand, prices.
Afternoon:
*  US monetary policy,  consumer, business spending impact on housing demand and steel, metals companies profit ,stock price
^ US monetary policy,  consumer, business spending    impact on housing demand and  energy, downstream companies profit , stock price OSA
Day five : Proactive structural asset pricing, risks valuation  macroeconomic systemic risks and credit, market risk integration,  credit, financial recession crisis early warning  OSA
morning:
US country macro-econometric inflation, currency systemic risk.
*  US Fed  monetary policy, housing industry price control impact on GDP, inflation and asset price bubbles
*  US monetary policy interest rate, trade impact on currency price mechanism, carry trade money speculation  .
Afternoon: Proactive Structural asset prices and risk valuation for crisis, risks early warning
US equities, bond, commodities, housing price bubbles burst associated market risks, and loan default crisis
*  US  housing and equities price bubbles bursts and housing, equities, futures market price risks early warning
*  US twin bubbles burst impact on commercial and investment banking, asset management loan credit default
risks and ABS, RMBS, CDO credit derivatives, hedging,  betting on the wrong direction resulted trillion dollar loss.
  
Who Should Attend : Central banks policy research, commercial, investment banking, real estate mortgage, hedge fund manager mortgage bond structural finance ABS, RMBS, CDO, securitization managers, insurance managers, mutual fund , SWF fund managers, government regulation strategic (top management) , execution (managers )  

Workshop Costs/ Benefits :USD 3000  plus Dr. Warren Huang round trip air fares from San Francisco  for full day workshop with unlimited attendees 
Workshop recommendation will save billion dollars in betting on the wrong direction of investment and default risks, loss, capitalize opportunities in economic slowdown, recession and asset prices bubbles burst

  Reserve by email  wh3928@yahoo.com  indicating your  favorite  time, your office address, and lists of executives names, title