Monetary, economic, fiscal  Policy, oil price  Impact on Thailand Economy, Capital Market Asset Prices, Bubble   Risks OSA (Operations Simulation Analysis)
Thailand  Asian Financial Crisis, Economic Recovery Risk Management OSA
Dr. Huang accurately predicted in Peking University, Beijin, May 2002 and Asian Business Forum, Kula Lumpur Sept. 30  and on this website to million global executives, visitors that US and global stocks overheated will retest new low in early 2003  and gradualy recover in the second quarter 2003 despite Asian SARS

Sept. , 2003  Edition

 Dr. Huang's two OSA master hands you are in good hands predicted Nov. 2003 that soaring oil commodities, metal prices hit 20 year high early 2004 push US, China inflation to 3.8 % resulted rate hike after May 2004  OSA for global central banks macro-economic control , prices stability and capital market prices simulation, forecasts , value investing strategy, mutual  fund  optimal asset allocation equities, bond, currency investment, portfolio management, wealth management,  risk hedging  tracking/forecasts month ahead  the root causes, onset, spread, recovery of Asian/Global financial crisis, asset bubble bursts lecture to 24 global central bank governors, wealth management, financial market risk management conferences and millions global central banks, banking, finance, corporate CEO, executives on this website  since 1998  .  Over 30 million China, Taiwan, Asian, US , ASEAN, European executives, investors on TV, radio programs and thousands workshops tracking his last 20 years results  predicted China 1994-96 macroeconomic control, softlanding and to 20 global central banks governor conference, 1999-2000 on  2000 IT bubble burst plunge 70- 90 % and  mutual fund bubble burst and US global banking, old economy blue chips , Buffet Berkshire, big cap value stocks mutual fund plunged 50- 70 %  July 2001 to Beijin China Peoples Bank executives and on this website and predicted US and global stocks rebound March 2003 Dow Jones rebound from 7300 to 10,000, Nasdaq from 1200 to 2200 Japan Nikkei rebound from 7500 to 12000, , emerging market Taiwan, Russia index almost double and index mutual fund 80 %  2003 March rebound on Kuala Lumpur Asset Securitization conference Oct. 2002  to 50 central bank, banking, finance, executives Sep , 2002 again in 2003 Nov. 2003 to Euro-events Singapore http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/  with excellent feedback photos 1, 2, 3 lecture ppt  , Shanghai, Beijin Nov. Asian/China Finance, Capital Markets conferences,  www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm2003   picture  2 with excellent feedback from 2000 QFII, QDII mutual fund managers, identify month ahead, investment opportunities in China ADR Hong Kong H shares, China blue chip petrochemicals, SNP, telecommunication Unicom A shares and value investing China mutual shares up 80 %and  and to China economists meeting Fudan University, Shanghai , Dec. 2003  early warning for asset bubbles in energy, metals commodities prices doubled, reaching 19 year peak, ( invested in future, derivatives gained 5000 %, mutual fund up 80 %) will drive China inflation to 4 %, China Peoples banks further credit tightening and rate hike( raised deposit ratio to 7.5 % Apr. 25, 2004)will drive GDP to 7 % in the second half despite first Quarter GDP of 9.4%,  US entering second leg economic recovery due to excessive rate, tax cut , following last year third quarter first leg boom bubble  corporate earning soared 76 % with overheated consumer over 100), investor confidence ( exceeds 1987) and ISM purchaser manager index over 66. while current quarter bubble with business confidence reaching 10 year high, consumer confidence will challenge 100 again, 370,000 new job created, soared consumer demand, housing start, durable orders will continue into third quarter and peaking out , bubble burst  thereafter,  second quarter bubble  CPI to 3.2 %, core inflation to 3.8 % force China will follow Greenspan raise interest rate  after  May and  summer , overoptimistic over US economic recovery and job creation, inflation outlook, Global IT and blue chips banking shares and its mutual fund  facing correction 2004, Dow will be traded 9750- 10500, Nasdaq  1850- 2050 , Taiwan index  5560-6400, Henseng 11000- 14000, Nikkei 10000- 12500, . Shanghai A 1500- 1650, Shenzhen 3300- 3800, Euro : 1.18- 1.25 , Yen 108- 115,  China slowdown will drag US, Asian and European recovery and  stocks gave up all this year gain.Trillion dollar Nonperformance   assets Management, workshops,  sponsored by Peking Univeristy  Guahua School of Management, Executive Develpment  Beijin zhoucs@gsm.pku.edu.cn
OSA maximize nonperformance  debt, equities, property asset   performance, value recovery, pre- warning for future NPL workshops   tracking  the causes, onset, recovery, prevent  of  assets bubble burst reserve your in-house workshops email wh3928@yahoo.com

 ========= Shanghai  Conference/in-house workshops Announcement ==============
Dr. Warren Huang will speak to Shanghai Finance and Economic University China Finance for sustainable growth Shanghai Oct. 25 on China capital market asset prices simulation, bubble early warning Monetary , economic, fiscal policy , foreign investments impact on China  capital market  industrial sectors market  forces in market economy,  demand, prices mechanism, profit margin, investment return and risk management 
He will offer Shanghai  full day in house CEO/CFO financial managers  China capital market Banking, Real Estate, Construction materials  auto asset prices, bubble simulation workshops  Oct. 27-Nov. 1

====== Singapore Asia Euro-Events  Conference/in-house workshops Announcement =======
 Dr. Huang will speak to Singapore Euro-Events Asian Finance and Capital Market conference Nov.5
three hundred Asian government regulation, , banking, finance , corporate CEO, CFO, executives on Monetary, economic, fiscal policy WTO impact on Asian economy and capital market asset prices, bubble, simulation, risk management
He will offer  full day in house CEO/CFO workshops in Singapore NOV 6- 9
Other Asian countries Nov. 28- Dec 18 by reservation  osawhh@citiz.net   or  wh3928@yahoo.com Dr. Huang return from Asia, lectured to Asian Business Forum's   in Kuala Lumpur Sept. 30, 2002  spoke to European, Asian central banks, stock exchanges, banking, securities executives on global nonperformance loan debt, equities, properties  asset prices , credit risk simulation, investment strategy and  Asset Backed Securitization workshops: predicting the unpredictable futures to  minimize bad loan ,shares buy back  procurement   

Dr. Huang accurately predicted in Peking University, Beijin, May 2002 and Asian Business Forum, Kula Lumpur Sept. 30  and on this website to million global executives, visitors that US and global stocks overheated will retest new low in early 2003  and graduate  recover in the second quarter 2003 despite Asian SARS

Sept. , 2003  Edition

Trillion dollar Nonperformance   assets Management, workshops,  sponsored by Peking Univeristy  Guahua School of Management, Executive Develpment  Beijin zhoucs@gsm.pku.edu.cn
OSA maximize nonperformance  debt, equities, property asset   performance, value recovery, pre- warning for future NPL workshops   tracking  the causes, onset, recovery, prevent  of  assets bubble burst reserve your in-house workshops email wh3928@yahoo.com

 Dr. Huang return from Asia, lectured to Asian Business Forum's   in Kuala Lumpur Sept. 30, 2002  spoke to European, Asian central banks, stock exchanges, banking, securities executives on global nonperformance loan debt, equities, properties  asset prices , credit risk simulation, investment strategy and  Asset Backed Securitization workshops: predicting the unpredictable futures to  minimize bad loan ,shares buy back  procurement ,
Goal: Dynamic tracking simulation the root causes of  ASEAN currency crisis,  Asian financial crisis EURO, US IT bubble burst, Nasdaq plunge, economic slowdown impact on Thailand macro GNP, inflation, export,  interest rates, currency,  stocks, commodity, properties prices impact on consumer and business spending, to predict, forecast overpriced asset prices resulted consumers spending imbalance and business profit slump due to central banks raising interest rates to cool off the economy, leading to bubble burst and abrupt change in consumer and business confidence caused stock prices plunges with average error below 1.5 %, correlation constant above 0.95. Global Central Banks Monetary Policy for Sustainable Growth and Asset Prices Stability Guidance and Control:  Policy Impact Simulation  Workshops
Monetary,  Economic, Fiscal Policy, WTO  impact on Global  Economic, Business cycles, Asset, Wealth Prices  bubbles burst, oil, energy , Currency crisis, recession FEED FORWARD SUSTAINABLE GROWTH AND ASSET PRICES STABILITY CONTROL Financial Markets Return, Asset Allocation, Strategic Risks OSA (RIGHT  HAND )  
Structural, Dynamics simulation of Monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on last 20 years global macro economic, business cycles, capital market asset prices, bubbles , financial crisis, boom and busts achieving growth and prices stability control predicted 1- 3 month ahead,  Global financial crisis since 1980 and the root causes, onset, recovery of Asian Financial Crisis Asian Financial 2000 high tech bubble burst  July 2001 in Beijin   that Taiwan index plunged to 3400,  Henseng plug below 9000,  facing recession nd 2001-2003 global market crash and recovery :
Dr. Warren Huang HAS BEEN INVITED TO SPEAK TO 24 GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS GOVERNORS  CONFERENCE ( FRD, ECB, China Peoples Bank, Taiwan, Japan, Korea, Thailand, Asian ) since 1998 warned that Global high tech bubble burst will plunge 50-70 % and facing recession. He offered thousands lectures accurately predicted China Peoples Banks monetary policy impact on 1994-96 macro-economic control-soft landing on China daily stock markets to China 15 cities 30 million investors, national newspapers during 1994-1998 in China and again predicted China excessive money supply, housing bubble facing tightening Mar. 2003 Shanghai workshops
. 
USA    Australia  Asian  Canada  China   Hong Kong   Taiwan    Thailand   Japan  S. Korea   Singapore  Malaysia  Phillipines  Indonesia   Viet-Nan   India  UK/EURO  Russia/E. Europe    Mexico   Argentina  Brazil Global Central Banks Monetary Policy for Sustainable Growth and Asset Prices Stability Guidance and Control:  Policy Impact Simulation  Workshops
Monetary,  Economic, Fiscal Policy, WTO  impact on Global  Economic, Business cycles, Asset, Wealth Prices  bubbles burst, oil, energy , Currency crisis, recession FEED FORWARD SUSTAINABLE GROWTH AND ASSET PRICES STABILITY CONTROL Financial Markets Return, Asset Allocation, Strategic Risks OSA (RIGHT  HAND )  
Structural, Dynamics simulation of Monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on last 20 years global macro economic, business cycles, capital market asset prices, bubbles , financial crisis, boom and busts achieving growth and prices stability control predicted 1- 3 month ahead,  Global financial crisis since 1980 and the root causes, onset, recovery of Asian Financial Crisis Asian Financial 2000 high tech bubble burst  July 2001 in Beijin   that Taiwan index plunged to 3400,  Henseng plug below 9000,  facing recession nd 2001-2003 global market crash and recovery :
Dr. Warren Huang HAS BEEN INVITED TO SPEAK TO 24 GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS GOVERNORS  CONFERENCE ( FRD, ECB, China Peoples Bank, Taiwan, Japan, Korea, Thailand, Asian ) since 1998 warned that Global high tech bubble burst will plunge 50-70 % and facing recession. He offered thousands lectures accurately predicted China Peoples Banks monetary policy impact on 1994-96 macro-economic control-soft landing on China daily stock markets to China 15 cities 30 million investors, national newspapers during 1994-1998 in China and again predicted China excessive money supply, housing bubble facing tightening Mar. 2003 Shanghai workshops
. 
USA    Australia  Asian  Canada  China   Hong Kong   Taiwan    Thailand   Japan  S. Korea   Singapore  Malaysia  Phillipines  Indonesia   Viet-Nan   India  UK/EURO  Russia/E. Europe    Mexico   Argentina  Brazil 

  1. Monetary Policy on global stock prices,:
  2. Global stock prices and monetary policy impact on consumer and business spending.
  3. Global stock prices, monetary policy impact on housing properties prices and rent
  4. Global stock prices, monetary policy impact on GDP macro-economics performance.
  5. Global stock prices, monetary policy impact on manufacturing and procurement manager index
  6. Global stock prices, monetary policy impact on consumer and business investment
  7. Global stock prices, monetary policy impact on export, trade balance, currency, stock prices.
  8. Global stock prices, monetary policy impact on corporate profit margin
  9. Global monetary policy, external shocks( commodities, currency and credit default) impact
    on burst, burst, abrupt change of consumer, business confidence (Asian crisis, LTCM)


    10. Thailand OSA:
    Monetary Policy on  inflation, GNP and economic indicators  for sustainable  growth and asset price stability)
     OSA simulation  macro-economics:
    Inflation rate = F (Money supply growth rate %, Oil prices,     Commodity index, Dollar exchange rate)
    GNP = F (Money supply growth rate %, Interest Rate, Export Growth Rate)
    Property prices = F (Money supply growth rate %, Interest Rate, stock index)
    NAPM = F(     Consumer spending growth rate %, Interest Rate, stock index)
    Business, consumer spending = F( Overnite interest rate, money supply growth,   exchange rate)
    Stock indices = F( Dow Jones index), Interest rate,  exchange rate

    Thailand  economy continue to expand     Manufacturing Production Index (MPI) grew  in both domestic, export-oriented industries. and , farm income rose benefits by 15 % increase in commodity prices due to soaring oil prices and increased  foreign tourists. The  strong consumers spending increased  3.7 % in housing, auto due to rising farm income, consumer confidence, and expanding consumer credits. and increasing  imports this month.  Exports also rose, with electronics     and agricultural products expanding but falling prices   .   Unemployment rate   stable and low the trade and current account continued to be in surplus, international reserves rose, and external debt declined.
         Manufacturing production Index  grew at a high rate of 10.4 percent year-on-year, in Aug due to strong domestic demand and  export. strong demand in automobile  iron and steel  industry as well as cement industry But  electronics and electrical appliance industry, mainly  as a result of the recovery of IC exports; will continue to the year end   Capacity  utilization,  at 65.2 percent
    The Consumer  Price Index  rose by  2.2 percent
    Exports and imports
    continued to expand in August. Exports   increased by 8.1 percent  imports rose in August, 19.4  percent,
    trade surplus of 238 million US dollars.
    Monetary policy.
    Overnight inter     bank rate averaged at 1.25 percent per annum.  At end-August, commercial bank credit outstanding    increase by 1.2 percent year-on-year.  When adding back debt write-offs and net transfers to AMCs, however, credit outstanding stood at 5,411.4 billion baht, expanding by 2.2 percent year-on-year.     .
         Exchange rate.
         benefited by falling  oil prices, and import, improved  trade surplus. Bhat depreciated rebound to 40, will be traded between 39.43 -41.5

    SET index : benefited by US and global economic recovery,  export prices ,  trade surplus, firm Bhat currency, and corporate profit,    
    SET index  will follow US Dow Jones consolidation in  500- 600 in the month ahead
    Most Active stocks prices simulation /forecasts:
    Website : www.osawh.com email: whuang@osawh.com / whuang3928@aol.com
    Tel 1-510-524-0283 Fax 1-510-524-4484
    Services: Bubble Burst,  trillion dollar financial crisis, risk management simulation and recession prevention Workshops , On the Job Training program :
    Billion dollar Supply Chain cost reduction for old and new economy workshop in SIngapore APr. 26-27     www.ibcasia.com.sg/supplymgtoilgas.htmOSA Strategic, execution teams All supported by simulation charts for training simulators.

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