Chinese (中文)
5-Day Proactive Structural Taiwan  macroeconomics, currency, equities, housing, commodites, Banking, Finance, Energy, IT industries,  stock indices, ETF prices simulations and markets rIsks, mortgage crisis early warning workshops
( presented to China Peoples Bank, 24 global central banks governors, fund, wealth management, oil market investment risk management confernces since 1999)
  Proactive Structural Dynamic Simulation of last 20 years China/US/ Asian  Mortgage Defaults Crisis,  Macro-economic inflation, unemplyment targeting, Monetary  interest  rate  policy Impact on mortgage rate,  Housing Sales, Pricing, Equities Prices Bubbles,, Mortgage Loan Credit Rating, Prepayment, Defaults, Recovery Modeling, Bond Spread in Assets Securitization, Risks Hedging 
                       
                    Hong Kong,  Beijin, Shanghai, Taipei   in-house workshops
                    by reservation  at your convenient time at yuor office wh3928@yahoo.com                          
                conducted  by Dr. Warren Huang, Pioneer, Global Strategic Management OSA

   Preparing for Macroeconomic control,  rate cuts, global commodities, housing, equities price bubbles burst, Housing Market Credit Crunch, Mortgage Default   Crisis Early Warning  

Trillion dollar recession hedge by Dr. Warren Huang

Comment by Warren Huang -Wall Street Journal Market Beat  February 8, 2008 at 12:20 pm
This is the market for those who applying proactive structural dynamic tracking of global macro-economy and daily financial market prices: the what , why exactly the markets is going on, the market forces price mechanism and how to identify and take advantage of the emerging bear/bull market trend supported optimal asset allocation and long-short strategy.
As most global ETF fund losing money including emerging market BRIC. Index fund.
Only the Ultra short financial, housing and gold fund gain more than 20 %
Trillion dollar recession hedge by me
As I warned last June , 2007 Peking University, Beijing International Financial Engineering Risk Management Conference and on this blog last Sept before Fed rate cuts
that rate cuts, can not stop US housing price slump continue into 2008 summer, drag US into recession, US and global stocks into bear market correction, with banking, finance, housing, shares down 50 %, IT, oil, retail and high fliers GOOG, AAPL, PTR shares down 30 % Any Hedge fund follow my advice could make trillion dollar in 2007.
details can be found on my one day full day workshop Mar.6, Pudong, Shanghai, China world fund 2008
www.osawh.com/fund2008.htm and www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm

Select your country, we will provide 5 -day  monetary policy impact on macroeconomic control, inflation, interest rates, currency, commodities, banking, finance, energy, housing,  IT industrial and stocks market corporate performances , regional housing prices bubbles, indexing, ETF  assets pricing, allocation strategy, credits, performance, mortgage default crisis analysis

Dr. Warren Huang Wall Street Journal  Real Time Economic Blog Dec. 27, 2007 Housing price bubble burst cycle                                                
This Shiller home price index does not reflect the housing bubbles burst cause ,onset, recovery and early warning
It is lagging indicator. It did not shown 300- 400 % price gain in coastal cities in last few years bubbles.and San Francisco housing prices still up 7.2 % due to high end housing price gain by all time high stock market resulted wealth.My research tracking last 30 years global housing price bubble burst cycle, indicating, it take 3 years completed the burst cycle, with housing prices plunged 30 %-50 % for high end. 20-30 % for middle range.takes two year to recover.so housing price plunged started last year, will continue through next year as I predicted on this blog 3 month ago detail can be found on www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm and www.osawh.com/fund2008.htm Comment by Warren Huang - December 27, 2007 at 1:45 pm

 Challenges and Investment opportunities, risks in 2008 China/US housing prices bubbles burst impact on
inflationary slowdown, stocks, fund, commodities markets outlook
Dr. Warren Huang  will be the keynote speaker on 2009 US recession, credit, financial crisis outlook and China Infrastructure Program to boost domestic demand in fighting the global recession and crisis and panelist on Challenges on China onshore, offshore derivatives markets will be the full day master class workshop lecturer for Terrapinn Fund World China 2008
conference, Shanghai  Pudong Shangri-La hotel, March 6 offer Proactive structural China/global asset pricing, 2008 credit tightening, recession impact on BRIC,Optimal  1x0/x0  long-short hedging, asset allocation strategy 2008
Find out breakthrough innovation in proactive structural artificial intelligence, neural net based expert systems macro, financial, industrial pricing econometrics  integration, simulation  and extension to Engle's Exponential GARCH  dynamic times series estimation co-integration into Granger Causes and Casualty analysis of US/UK/China housing, equities, currency, commodities price bubbles, tracking the causes, onset, recovery, early warning of US/China, global central banks monetary  interest rate policy impact on macroeconomic control inflation, un-employment, housing mortgage crisis, global  housing, equities , currencies, commodities prices, mortgage rate, nationwide major cities, counties housing, demand prices , associated   default, recovery modeling, ABS, CRE,  RMBS, CDO  bond spread, China Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 and global stock  Indexing simulation forecasts, BRIC, ETF, hedging fund strategy.

 Dr. Warren Huang (黃華南博士) Pioneer, proactive structural dynamic global inflation, macro economy, daily financial markets interest rates, currency, stock, bond, derivatives, housing, commodities, oil asset pricing and risks valuation markets fundamentals price mechanism, accurately warned on Wall Street Journal Market beat Blog Sept.19, 2007 and Mar 5, 2008 masterclass  workshop China fund world 2008, Pudong, China warning to Goldman Sach managing directors JPM, UBS and 150 China QDII/QFII fund managers that US housing price slump continue into summer 2008 drag economy into inflationary recession and US, global stock indices bear market 30- 50 % , Dow Jones test 11000, NASDAQ PLUNGE 30 % and high fliers (GOOG, PTR, AAPL) , IT, retail stocks facing 30-50 % correction, with banking, finance, housing share price plunge 50- 70 %, dollar making to new low, oil price to 140 and gas to 14, commodity prices doubled, widening bond spread and failure in MBS/CDO, Bear Stearn 30 billion dollar MBS hedge fund ,despite Fed rate cuts He also warned top QFII management on Peking Univ June 2007 International Financial Engineering Conference that China overheated housing, stock market wealth gain resulted inflation over 8.7 % will lead to China Peoples Bank credit tightening to remove excessive liquidity, Housing, stock markets follow US housing price slump, recession, bear market correction, with Shanghai A testing  2550 till summer 2008, stamp tax for stock trading cut to 1 % provide initial support to 3000 level, and plunged again to 2550-  2750  after Dow Jones plunged to 11000,commodities, oil asset pricing and risks valuation markets fundamentals price mechanism,  ,capital on the emerging bull, bear market trend through optimal long- short strategic asset allocation. portfolio management, He recommended US mutual fund (  US oil fund follow oil , gas price doubled Ultra short financial,  up 70 %, Ultra short QQQ ( Nasdaq ) UP 30 %. , and  recommended ETF: US natural gas up  100  % as natural gas soared from 6 to 12., and Japan crude oil fund up 110 %, as oil price doubled from 70 to 149. and Oppenheimer Commodities  up 90 % as, corn, soybean price doubled 
Global central banks, economist, banking, financial, mortgage loan and commercial, investment banking , hedging fund managers,  markets analysts ignoring Dr. Warren Huang warning on Asset Prices Bubbles at Kula Lumpur, Sept. 2002 to Malaysia central banks Asset Based Securitization  conference,  Singapore,  Nov. 5, Nov 25, 2003 Shanghai Euro-events Asian /US/China Finance, Capital Market  conferences  and China economist annual meeting, Fudan University, Shanghai lecture Dec. 2003 on Monetary Policy impact on US/Asian/China economic outlook, capital market housing, stocks, commodities, 
 
Workshops Goal :  OSA  forecasts  maximize  risks adjusted return in US/China housing markets and  stock indices, index fundETF investments pricing, asset allocation , housing, mortgage default risks early warning fighting  housing market recession, credit crunch, avoided global banking , housing, equities, commodities,  markets  trillion dollars asset downgrade, value loss
Workshops Mission: Setup  goal, mission, performance oriented strategic, executive OSA teams, develop, implement proactive, structural  global central banks monetary policy guidance and control in macro, financial, housing market economy market forces demand, prices mechanism and loan and ABS assets, credit rating, prepayment, default, recovery  modeling Operations Simulation Analysis (OSA)  strategic investment,   forecasts month ahead, of the emerging  housing, equities market price trend, credit default, recession  trend, crisis impact on global currency, commodities, stock indices, ETF, equities, bond prices , CDS spread,  investment strategy and risks hedging early warning, avoided trillion dollar housing and global equities allocation investment,  markets default  loss.

Workshops Highlights: The what , why, how and timing of root causes, onset, recovery, early warning of  Taiwan/China/US equities, housing, commodities bubble burst, mortgage default crisis, tracking regulation AB for ABS RMBS, CDO pooled asset credit rating and performance, default, global/Taiwan assets allocations, with 2008 2009  forecast.
 
5 Day China Macroeconomic, Housing , equities bubble control  and Default Crisis Early Warning
5 Day  US  Macroeconomic, Housing , equities bubble control  and Default Crisis Early Warning9

Day One: Taiwan/China Macroeconomic control, Inflation, Country Risks, boom and bust cycle OSA, Forecasts
morning:
Monetary Policy Trilemma:  Macroeconomic growth overheating, asset prices bubble , inflation control
and RMB/NT$  currency appreciation OSA
 
 * Proactive Structural dynamic OSA and EGARCH Granger co-integrations of  Taiwan/ China Central Bank macroeconomic control (  rate hikes, raise bank deposit ratio   ) removing excessive liquidity due to stocks, housing  bubble wealth  gain and inflation  tracking money supply, interest rate, RMB/NT and housing industry control  impact on housing, stock indices, ETF prices bubbles, fixed investment, inflation rate, un-employment rate and inflation rate
 * Monetary policy, commodities, oil prices, NT/ RMB , fixed investment impact on inflation rate, GDP, interest rates
Afternoon:
Monetary Policy Trilemma: Currency appreciation Sovereign Wealth Fund,(SWF) Asset Allocation, risks and DFI inflow, excessive liquidity
* Interest rate and trade balance impact on daily  NT and China RMB,  and  Yen, EURO, Pound exchange rates and currency carry trade DFI in  currency carry traded asset price speculation.20 industrial sectors demand, prices and stocks investment asset allocation performances, risks in SWF investment , Currency appreciation and DFI inflow, excessive liquidity
* Interest rate and trade balance impact on daily Taiwan/ China RMB,  and  Yen, EURO, Pound exchange rates and currency carry trade DFI in asset price speculation.
* Interest rate, credit tightening impact on asset prices bubble, mortgage default and mortgage default impact on inflation, GDP, unemployment, recession

Day two: Housing Industry  Price Bubble Growth , Control and Burst, mortgage loan, CRE, RMBS,  default OSA
Morning:
Taiwan/China monetary policy impact on housing demand and prices
*Taiwan  Central Bank Monetary Policy macroeconomic control ( raise rate   bank deposit ratio  impact on removing excessive asset  market liquidity and cool off the overheated economy and inflation
*Taiwan housing industry price control policy and impact on  regional housing supply, demand and prices.
Afternoon:
 Taiwan housing bubble burst, loan default , stock market crash, economic recession early warning
*  Taiwan NT$ appreciation, monetary policy, stock markets indices, price bubble, fixed investment impact on
 Taipei housing sales, and prices bubble OSA forecast
^ Proactive structural Taiwan housing personal, corporate, ABS, RMBS,  loan credit rating, securitization asset performance, prepayment, sub-prime and high end  mortgage loan default  and induced stock market crash and economic recession early warning  OSA 

Day three: Excessive liquidity, housing prices Impact on Stock Price Bubble Growth and Burst, Market Crash Stock indices, Banking, Finance, Energy, IT ETF fund performances OSA
Morning:
Taiwan monetary policy impact on housing demand and prices, banking, finance, construction industry performance
* Taiwan Central  Bank Monetary Policy macroeconomic control impact on removing excessive asset  market liquidity and banking, finance stock price performance
*Taiwan housing industry price policy and impact on China housing loan, construction industry demand and  prices.
Afternoon:
* NT$  appreciation, monetary policy, stock markets price bubble, fixed investment impact on Taipei )housing, prices  and Taiwan stock  index stock indices future,  price OSA forecast
^ Proactive structural Taiwan  housing personal, corporate loan credit rating, prepayment, sub-prime and high end  mortgage loan default and banking real estate stock performance early warning  OSA 
Day four: Taiwan Housing demand impact on oil commodities upstream/downstream demand, profit, stock prices OSA
  Morning:
Taiwan monetary policy impact on construction material, energy, metal demand, stock  prices, OSA
*Taiwan central  Bank Monetary Policy macroeconomic , housing industry control impact on housing, construction
material , steel, gold, copper, aluminum metal demand , prices .
* Taiwan China housing industry price control policy and impact on China oil, energy downstream demand, prices.
Afternoon:
*  Taiwan/China  monetary policy, fixed investment impact on  cross strait housing demand and steel, metals companies profit ,stock price
^ Taiwan/China monetary policy, fixed investment impact on housing demand and  energy, downstream companies profit , stock price OSA
Day five : Proactive macroeconomic systemic risks and credit, market risk integration, crisis early warning  OSA
morning:
 Taiwan/ China country macro-econometric inflation, currency systemic risk.
* Taiwan/China Peoples Banks monetary policy, housing industry price control impact on GDP, inflation and price bubbles
* TaiwanChina monetary policy interest rate, trade impact on RMB currency price mechanism, hot money speculation  .
Afternoon:
Taiwan/ China equities, housing price bubbles burst associated market risks, and loan default crisis
* Taiwan/China housing and equities price bubbles bursts and housing, equities, futures market price risks early warning
* Taiwan/China twin bubbles burst impact on commercial and investment banking, asset management loan credit default
risks and ABS, RMBS, CDO credit derivatives, hedging,  betting on the wrong direction resulted trillion dollar loss.
  
Who Should Attend : Central banks policy research, commercial, investment banking, real estate mortgage, ETF, mutual fund, hedge fund , wealth management manager mortgage bond structural finance ABS, RMBS, CDO, securitization managers, insurance managers, mutual fund , SWF fund managers, government regulation strategic (top management) , execution   

Workshop Costs/ Benefits : Lecture fee plus Dr. Warren Huang round trip air fares from San Francisco  for full day workshop with unlimited attendees 
Workshop recommendation will save billion dollars in betting on the wrong direction of investment and default risks, loss, capitalize opportunities in economic slowdown, recession and asset prices bubbles burst  
Reserve by email  wh3928@yahoo.com  indicating your  favorite  time, your office address, and lists of executives names, title