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Optimal Proactive Structural Causes and Consequences Simulation of Global financial crisis, excessive liquidity, debt bubble, housing  bubble, recession exit strategy, China credit tightening, Euro Debt crisis, US Fed QE2 impact on Taiwan Central Bank Monetary, Economic Fiscal Policy, Impact on  GDP Growth , Inflation,  Equity, Housing Asset Prices Bubbles Financial  Systems Stability, Imbalance  Risks Early Warning ( Regulation, Currency ) IMF  Surveillance OSA( Operations Simulation Analysis ) Performance Guidance and Control:  provide the what, why, how and timing months ahead of causes, onset, recovery, warning of global financial, credit , debt crisis
 Taiwan investors follow US stocks investors and economist   overoptimistic about US GDP will slowdown to 2.5 %,Taiwan GDP at 9.2 % in 4 Q2009 and will grow 5.1 % this year  stocks follow US stock almost double to 8400. China housing price control and credit tightening, m2 money supply growth drop from 28 % to 17 %, GDP down to 6 % this  year will cut into Taiwan export and GDP growth, stocks and housing prices correction, Taiwan index will test 6500- 7200.  Taiwan housing market facing overheating due to excessive liquidity and equities prices bubble, ( almost doubled) facing housing price control credit tightening.Over 20 years Proactive Structural Dynamic Simulation of  Taiwan Central Bank Optimal Monetary ,Economic, Fiscal Policy Impact on Inflation, unemployment, GDP, Assets (Stocks, Bond, Housing, Commodity) Prices Bubbles Identification, inflation, deflation, burst, recovery, early warning , performance guidance and Control in  achieving optimal growth and price stability
Tracking Global credit, financial crisis, recession impact on Taiwan economy and daily financial market prices.
  The What, Why, How and  timing  in  central banking Optimal Predictive Monetary Policy: Integrated Macro economic Control, imbalance, Systemic Risks, Impact on  20 industrial sectors demand, supply, prices   and Capital markets Asset Prices market forces mechanism and Stress Testing Early Warning System
Dr. Warren Huang, pioneer of proactive monetary policy presented to China Peoples bank governor sponsored Asian central bank governors, US Fed Chicago, Ohio governor, ECB, UK, Taiwan  24 global central bank governors policy and  finance, capital market , risks management conferences     
  OSA founder Dr. Warren Huang CV Picture of  Dr. Warren Huang speaking, pioneering proactive structural dynamics simulators for global central banking innovation
China/ Hong Kong  Strategic Management -Neuro-economic  OSA  models forecasts, mission control help central banks stay ahead of inflation, asset bubbles macro-economic cycles control,, forecast the cause, onset, recovery of  China, Hong Kong , Asian Financial crisis and global capital markets
OSA asset prices, financial crisis, Basel II credit, market, interest rate, liquidity risks. capitalize investment  opportunities, avoid trillion dollar  market  loss, achieve sustainable profit   
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Do not miss this proactive strategic investment , trillion dollar hedging strategy workshops series by OSA  proactive solution pioneer Dr.Warren Huang
30 million global/Taiwan /China top fund managers and investment management teams bring their management/s operating problems into our strategic fund allocation and  wealth management workshops. take home billion dollar proactive structural solution, avoided trillion dollar housing, stock market loss due betting on the wrong side of interest rates and bull/bear market trend, ready to implement 

ment by Warren Huang , Wall Street Journal Real Time Economics Blog- October 17, 2008 at 10:05 pm

US Sept. consumer confidence plunge to 38, ISM manufacturing purchaser index plunge to 38 and jobless rate to 6.5 % and Dow Jones plunged 50 % third quarter GDP contract 0.3 %core inflation up 2.9 %, warned, predict by me Sept. 2007 on this blog that US  housing slump continue , will entering double dip inflationary recession 3Q 2008 despite rate cuts, stimulus, bail out plan and extends into deeper recession contracting by 2 % in 4Q 2008 and 1Q 2009,  resulted by  full impact o business, consumer spending decline due to 6.5 % jobless and 20 % housing slump, 40 % stocks market loss
  The real causes of current mortgage, credit, financial crisis and recession are due to poor financial, monetary policy decision modeling in asset pricing and  risks valuation mechanism, MBS, CDO , the burst of super housing, commodities asset price bubbles caused by 7 year longest expansive excessive money supply, easy credit policy .
Global central banks, financial markets financial decision still rely on 30 year old probabilistic, statistical Capital Market Asset Pricing (CAPM) and macroeconomic modeling, ignoring asset price impact on inflation and financial, housing , MBS, CDO prices.
 Predicted by Dr. Warren Huang, pioneer of Proactive Global Asset Pricing Mechanism , June 2007 , Beijing, Wall Street Journal Economic, Market Beat
 Blog Aug.2007   and March 5, 2008 Pudong, China Fund World 2008 to 200 global top investment banking, fund managers that Global Housing price bubble burst, prices plunge 30 % into 2009, drag  global economy into recession and stocks bond, oil,  commodities, metals ,Derivative Asset Prices Bubbles Burst with 50 % Price Correction Cause Credit, Financial Crisis and Economic Recession, ( As Dow Jones, SP 500, NASDAQ drag global stock indices plunged more than 50 % into 2002 recession low ,( Dow Jones  after current consolidate in 8000- 9000 will test 7000, NASDAQ test 1250, S&P test 700 low, oil price plunged 50 % from 147 to 60，Gas oil from1300 to 650 , corn  from 800 to 350, cotton from 80 to 44 as global economy  enter deep recession by year  end, despite US 700 billion  and ECB 2.3 trillion bail out to stabilize credit crisis
 Comment by Warren Huang - November 10, 2008 Wall Street Journal Real Time Economics Blog at 12:31 pm
China 568 billion stimulus package mainly concentrate on infrastructure, railroad, highway, rural construction, modernization and low income housing, export oriented industry support, it will not see the real impact until second half of next year when housing bubble correction is underway ,macro economical control softlanding, inflation drop to 3 % through 2010.
There is little help to survive the global recession and the global stock market bear market correction from now through next summer. It may help to support metal, commodity prices hopefully not like US 160 billion tax rebate driving oil, metal, commodity to record high and soaring inflation
Therefore global stock markets will have tough time ahead

Dr. Warren Huang (黃華南博士) Pioneer, proactive structural dynamic global inflation, macro economy, daily financial markets interest rates, currency, stock, bond, derivatives, housing, commodities, oil asset pricing and risks valuation markets fundamentals price mechanism, accurately warned on Wall Street Journal Market beat Blog Sept.19, 2007 and Mar 5, 2008 masterclass  workshop China fund world 2008, Pudong, China  to Goldman Sach managing directors JPM, UBS and 150 China QDII/QFII fund managers that  US Fed aggressive rate cuts drag dollar to 1.53-1.65 EURO, 95- 108 Yen, economic stimulus boost consumer spending on gasoline and jet fuel summer, demand, driving gasoline , heating oil to 415, oil price to 121-145, commodity price double, will peak out as US dollar rebound follow Fed ending rate cuts cycle , can not stop sub-prime crisis spreading, regional  housing price slump 30-50 %  and credit crisis, crunch crisis continue through  2009 drag economy into 2009 double dip  inflationary recession resulted trillion housing and stock market loss and US, global stock indices bear market  50 % , Dow Jones test  7000- 8000  NASDAQ PLUNGE testing  1250- 1500 and high fliers (GOOG, PTR, AAPL) , IT, retail stocks facing  correction,    with banking, finance, housing share price plunge 70- 90   %, dollar making to new low 90 Yen,   commodity prices doubled,  and bubble burst plunge 50 % in recession widening bond , CDS spread and failure in MBS/CDO, Bear Stearn 30 billion dollar MBS hedge fund and government steps rescue Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac bail out,  despite Fed rate cuts . He also warned top global QFII management on Peking  Univ June 2007 International Financial Engineering Conference that China overheated housing, stock market wealth gain resulted inflation over 8.7 % will lead to China Peoples Bank credit tightening to remove excessive liquidity, Banking housing, stock markets follow US housing price slump, recession, bear market correction, with Shanghai A testing  1800  through  early 2009  until economy softlanding
China is suffering from housing market overheating, with 300 % gain in housing prices still  up 3.5 % , FIXED investment , export growth and consumer spending still up 26 %, first 9 month GDP still up 9.9 %, CPI up 7 % despite  China peoples Bank 6  rate hikes, 16 bank deposit rat hike to 17.5 %. China need to further cut its M2 money supply growth  from 15 % to 12 % next year to achieve housing price cut of 30 %, CPI to 4 %, GDP to 8 % to achieve soft landing and start of bull market stock rally.Dr. Warren Huang
 
 He will  offer the following workshops to the banking, finance, real estate industries.
5 Day CEO , CFO, traders, fund managers Proactive Structural Oil. Commodity, Currency, Housing Multi-Class Asset Pricing, Allocation Long-Short Strategy in-house Workshop
 2008  Proactive Structural Asian ( India, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore, Vietnam )/China/US/European  QFII Strategic Investment Banking/Capital Markets Research and Decisions  Operations Simulation Analysis (OSA) Workshops
5 Day 2009 China/Taiwan  Macroeconomic, Housing , equities bubble control  and Default Crisis Early Warning
5 Day 2009  US  Macroeconomic, Housing , equities bubble control  and Default Crisis Early Warning
 5 Day  2009 UK  Macroeconomic, Housing , equities bubble control  and Default Cri3928sis Early Warning China/ Hong Kong  Strategic Management -Neuro-economic  OSA  models forecasts, mission control help central banks stay ahead of inflation, asset bubbles macro-economic cycles control,, forecast the cause, onset, recovery of  China, Hong Kong , Asian Financial crisis and global capital markets

Monetary, Economic, Fiscal Policy, oil prices , China, US rate cuts, bailout plan, economic stimulus impact on Taiwan  Economy, Demand, Capital markets price

l
lUS housing price slump continue into 2009, drag economy into recession Sept. consumer confidence plunge to 38, ISM manufacturing purchaser index plunge to 38 and jobless rate to 6.5 %, consumer spending drop 1 %, Business spending drop 2 %  and Dow Jones plunged 40  % third quarter GDP contract 0.3 %core inflation up 2.9 %, cut into China export growth to 25 %, GP to 9 %, Taiwan export growth to 5 %, GDP to 4.3 %, Taiwan trade surplus  3.5 billion.  warned, predict by me Sept. 2007 on Wall Street Journal  blog
 Taiwan money supply growth   plunged to 3.22 % in OCt. 2008  , as industrial production down 1.5 %,  global oil, commodities price slump 50 % cut Taiwan inflation from 5 % to 3.1 %, central bank cut interest rate to 2.6 %,
lIt facing housing bubbles ( up 100 % since 2003 Taiwan stock index soared from 3100 to 9900 in 2008    
lIT upstream/downstream hurt by   global economic recession  facing sluggish demand and falling price war 
lOil upstream/downstream facing  falling oil, and product prices, shrinking profit inrecession
lBanking  stock prices   are overheated, properties demand and prices peaking out facing bubble burst facing default risks..
lTaiwan index  stock following US credit crisis financial , crisis, recession, Nasdaq bear market correction to 3500- 4600 , OTC 65-  95, China concept stocks  follow China stock consolidation, 3.1 billion trade surplus support  NT exchange rate   32.5-33.5l

Monetary Policy on  inflation, GNP and economic indicators  for sustainable  growth and asset price stability)
 OSA simulation  macro-economics:
Inflation rate = F (Money supply growth rate %, Oil prices, Commodity index, Dollar exchange rate)
GNP = F (Money supply growth rate %, Interest Rate, Export Growth Rate)
Property prices = F (Money supply growth rate %, Interest Rate, stock index)
NAPM = F( Consumer spending growth rate %, Interest Rate, stock index)
Business, consumer spending = F( Overnite interest rate, money supply growth,  exchange rate)
Stock indices = F( US Dow  index), Interest rate,  exchange rate
 Wealth Effect = F( money supply, consumer, business spending, interest rate, currency, stock index, housing prices)
Dr. Warren Huang will be risk management panelist and  full day master class workshop lecturer for  Terrapinn China Fund World  2008
 conference, Shanghai  Pudong Shangri-La hotel, March 6 offer Proactive structural China/global asset pricing, 2008 credit
 tightening  recession impact on BRIC,Optimal  1x0/x0  long-short hedging, asset allocation strategy 
 US/China/Taiwan central  banks neutral  interest rate or inflation targeting will all fail to achieve sustainable growth and prices stability due to  Current Hong Kong/ US/China monetary policy, macroeconomic control policy still based on 30 year old US Friedman monetary economics theory using feedback control, based on lagging distorted  core inflation( exclude food and energy or distorted energy prices) to set  interbank rate, fail to predict  its its impact on currency, stock, commodities, housing, asset and its downstream products market prices and its impact on CPI and core inflation". resulted  excessive money supply growth in 2003, consumer, business demand, wealth effect speculation since then overheating ahead of asset bubble and in CPI inflation. leading to doing too little, too late in fighting potential inflation and soaring housing construction material asset bubbles.

While Dr. Warren Huang's 35 years development, implementation of thousands proactive structural dynamic global monetary, macroeconomic, asset prices simulators have been able to tracking, simulate forecast months, years ahead of last 25 years misguided policy resulted US/Taiwan1980, 1990, runaway inflation, 1987 stock market crash, 1997 Asian financial crisis, 2000 IT asset bubble burst, 2005 soaring oil prices, energy energy crisis , stock, commodity, housing asset bubbles, China 1994 run away inflation offered thousands lectures to China Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Wuhan, Guanchow , Taipei, US San Francisco 15 cities TV, radio investors, traders, hundred  banking finance companies CEO, fund managers, executives, predicted 1980- 1990 macro economic control, soft-landing, and 1997  Asian  currency crisis, results have been presented to 21 US, EURO, China, Taiwan ,Asian central banks governors monetary policy for sustainable growth and prices stability and global financial crisis risk management conferences and his website www.osawh.com  (visited by 82 countries central banks, banking, finance, enterprises, universities since 1998.
He predicted  in 2003 that US facing housing and construction materials asset bubble deflation/burst again with 4 % inflation, due to excessive rates tax cuts,  rate cuts, money supply growth resulted excessive consumer,  business demand, stock market and housing markets speculation resulted bubble and 50 trillion dollar wealth effect , despite Greenspan 13 rate hikes and overoptimistic on inflationary and oil prices outlook using lagging, distorted  " core inflation "  following same mistakes in the last 20 years boom and bust.  GDP growth can no longer sustainable in current overheated bubble. Fed maintaining inflation is contained and oil prices will drop in the past 13 rate  hikes, encouraging housing and stock market wealth effect resulted speculation.  Housing mortgage bond yield are below 6 %, too low to cut demand and asset bubble. pushing oils prices to 65-69 and construction materials, metal to new high in winter heating oil demand peak ( Xmas-January )due to cold weather demand and soaring US trade deficit to 68.9 billion, drag US dollar predicted by Dr. Huang Nov 18, 2005 in Beijing China Oil Market Conference  to ExxonMobil, ARAMCO, Phillips Petroleum CEO, VP
 
 US/China 2003- 2005 macroeconomic, inflation control  tracking, 2005 forecasts:
Dr. Huang spoke to Euro-events Singapore , Shanghai, Beijin Nov.  2003  Asian/China Finance, Capital Markets conferences lecture to 2000 QFII, QDII mutual fund managers and  China Economist annual meeting Dec. 20 and San Francisco Silicon Valley finance radio and global finance investment seminar May7,  8, 15,2004  warning  global central banks excessive rate, tax cuts, ignoring Dr. Huang's warning on www.osawh.com  website and global conferences, underestimated global economic recovery resulted inflation,  excessive demand for housing, manufacturing, auto pushed oil, metal constructional materials prices to new high and rising cost, prices to 5000 upstream /downstream raw materials, products (core inflation) due to US  excessive money supply growth, rate, tax cuts, Fed raising rate , too little, too late , China delaying  rate hike to effectively cut market demand led to China Sept.  2004 CPI inflation up 5.2 % again 2005 GDP growth still at 9.4 % due to increasing   business ( up 22 %)and consumer demand up 14 % Despite China Oct 2005 CPI dropped to 1.2% due to distorted energy, asset prices. China still facing inflationary pressure (not deflation) as China soon will facing resources (coal, oil, water, electricity market forces prices mechanism reform reflecting rising oil prices impact on resources.  
 US Greenspan, global economists,  market analysts over optimistic  over oil, commodity weakness and underestimate inflationary pressure  and 10 yr. bond yield too low , long interest rate has to go up to 5 % in the month ahead due to excessive business and consumer spending twin growth engine will drive year end 2005 economic recovery, profit growth, market rally,   peaking out as entering peak holiday season,  underestimated on the impact of US dollar depreciation, excessive rate, tax cuts , 50  trillion dollar  housing, equities wealth effect resulted excessive consumer, business demand, NAPM peaking out in the second quarter at 66 ( already plunged to 56 as predicted ) driving soaring oil, commodities, metals asset prices bubble reaching 23 year high in March, May  and extending into   2005 with  US trade deficit soared to   70  billion and inflation, facing credit tightening, rate hikes through summer of 2006  profit , productivity growth , consumer confidence , business spending,  peaking out,  economic leading indicators declined for 6 months ,business  facing profit  squeeze in  second half  2004, China and US, Global stocks bull markets are over, entering bear market consolidation.   US High tech, finance, housing, retails, auto share will give up  all its 2005 gain plunge  30-50 % and  trillion dollar loss in bond and stock markets repeating 1995 and 2000  and trillion dollar profits in oil, commodity futures investments
Dr. Huang  pioneered two master hands thousands structural dynamic proactive quantitative models  accurately predicted last 20 years global economy and daily capital market asset prices , presented to 24 global central bank governors, risk management conferences , He predicted again  2003 Nov. 2003 to Euro-events Singapore http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/  with photos 1, 2, 3 lecture  ppt  , Shanghai, Beijin Nov. Asian/China Finance, Capital Markets conferences,  www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm2003   picture  2  to 2000 QFII, QDII mutual fund managers, identify month ahead, investment opportunities in China ADR Hong Kong H shares, China A  blue chip petrochemicals, SNP, telecommunication Unicom A shares and value investing China mutual shares up 80 %and  and to China economists meeting Fudan University, Shanghai , Dec. 2003  early warning for 2004 asset bubbles in energy, metals commodities prices doubled, reaching 23 year peak, ( invested in future, derivatives gained 5000 %, mutual fund up 80 %) China Peoples banks further credit tightening and rate hike( raised deposit ratio to 7.5 % Apr. 25, 2004, Oct. 0.27 % and more )cut money supply growth from 23 % to 14 %, drag inflation from 5 % in 2004 to 1.3 % of Oct. 2005, but excessive business and consumer demand still push GDP to 9.4 % with overheated housing market continue into 2006
 Global Strategic Management  OSA  forecasts, mission control help central banks stay ahead of inflation, capital markets asset bubbles   forecast the cause, onset, recovery of  Taiwan, / Asian financial crisis, capitalize on investment
 OSA  opportunities, avoid trillion dollar Basel II credit, market, operational risk loss, achieve sustainable profit       www.osawh.com    About OSA   Products & Services    Nobel Prize dream    Workshops
 Breakthrough Innovation : Proactive Structural dynamic simulation of Taiwan  central bank monetary economic policy impact on Taiwan macroeconomic, finance ,capital market asset prices bubbles
Dr. Warren Huang pioneered  proactive macro stress testing integrating Monetary, Economic, fiscal, Policy , oil prices Impact on Macroeconomic, money, currency, capital market asset, stocks, bond , properties prices , wealth effect bubble bursts, Wealth Management  Risks Operations Simulation Analysis
Don't Miss This Opportunities  
 Breakthrough Innovation in Global central bank monetary policy, macroeconomic control,  economy, finance, capital market asset prices simulation, forecasts by thousands Proactive Structural Dynamic Simulation month ahead of last 20
years  emerging global finance, capital  stock, oil, gas, commodities futures market  bull/bear trend US, China rate hike, asset bubble impact on Global Oil, Gas, and downstream Demand, Futures Prices, Derivatives , corporate profit margin, stock prices and associated asset bubble burst risks with 2005  forecasts, Join Dr. Warren Huang's Beijin  pre-conference workshop or his post conference in-house workshop, get  first hand information and OSA  proactive models simulation methodology and forecasts, will  use www.osawh.com and www.osawh.com/riskm.html, and oil, gas price forecast : www.osawh.com/oilpetpri.html  and www.osawh.com/hp2001h.html  materials as lectures contents  *( presented to 24 global central banks, financial risk management conferences and visited by millions global banks, banking, finance, 1600 multinationals oil, gas CEO, executives from 78 countries and lectures China, Taiwan, US 15 cities ( Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guanzhou, Taipei, Sna Francisco ) 30 million TV, radio investors, fund managers, hundreds banking, securities, insurance companies CEO, CFO, fund managers, risks, supply chain procurement, marketing managers since 1985, published thousands Chinese articles 100 million copies on China, Taiwan, US newspapers, investment, economic, finance journals.  Monetary policy Impact on  Asian Financial Crisis, Recovery, wealth management  by Dr. Warren Huang        
(Right master hand)
======================================================
   China Energy Strategy:  Strategic China Energy trade Finance, Investment Strategy conference and Strategic Corporate Governance, Enterprises Energy Risks Management workshop
  
  Don't Miss This lectures opportunities in China/global oils strategic corporate governance, enterprises risk management conference Nov. 17-18 Beijing, China World Hotel for China/Global oil upstream/downstream, banking, finance,  CEO ,CFO, board members, auditing and management teams, share holders ,investment, supply chain senior executives  proactive decision analysis training provide the latest forecast of global/China oil upstream/downstream future, derivative prices, investment strategy.
  "Proactive Strategic Corporate Governance and Enterprise Risk Management"  
 * Proactive structural models tracking, simulation of China/global oil, gas upstream/downstream futures, derivatives prices mechanism,  cost, financial, derivatives accounting.
* Proactive structural models tracking  daily corporate operations and governance performance ,scandals risks early warning and training board members, management team, auditing teams meeting Sarbanes- Oxley compliances
* Global strategic investment, joint ventures, M/A,  supply chain, Basel  II  global financial, energy  crisis, credit, market risks simulation, early warning, 
* Profit, market share, risks as goal, mission, performance  oriented strategic governance, risks OSA (Operations Simulation Analysis) team( CEO, CFO, board) and execution teams( managers) maximize corporate operations and governance transparency performances.
* Case studies: US Mobil, Enron, Taiwan Chinese, China Aviation Oils

Dr. Warren Huang     BIO Dr. Huang has 30 years experience in  development, implementation  of proactive strategic structural simulators tracking for
 Mobil, Phillips Petroleum,  SINOPEC , Asian Consulting.   He predicted  last 20 years emerging market trend of global  oil, gas upstream/downstream futures,
derivatives , listed stock prices,  financial, energy crisis, corporate  scandals early warning for investment, supply  chain, marketing strategy for multinationals, SOE
board members, executives training . He spoke to global central banks governors, risk management conferences wrote 35 articles for US  Oil & Gas Journal,
Hydrocarbon Processing , Advanced Process  Control , Information System Handbook 1991-2005. Millions global executives visited his website www.osawh.com/hp2001h.html .> reserve your in-house workshop Oct- Nov, 2005, your office : osawhh@yahoo.com.cn/   wh3928@yahoo.com
Dr. Warren Huang key note speech  and workshop for China gas, LNG, LPG conference Feb 24-25, 2005, Beijin on
A. China oil, gas policy and gas industry structures
B. Challenges, Opportunities, Risks, return in China natural gas, LNG, LPG investments
C. Project financing operation, markets, credit, policy risks management workshop
=============================================================================================
 Announcement  :OSA  country web pages assistant editor and marketing opportunities 
OSA will expand 40 countries web pages content in local language and English domain  in 2005, looking for
A. Assistant editors for all areas, current college student of all majors, interested to be training by our e-Learning mission
 impossible, develop  your country information knowledge base, web contents, you will be co-author with Dr. Huang to present your results in local , international conferences, for future graduate  scholarship, job application credit references
B. Marketing agent: Local country web pages, domain, boosting traffic and workshops marketing, some experience required         Contact  osawhh@citiz.net  in  Chinese  wh3928@yahoo.com  in English5 Day Global Interest Rates, Bond Yield, Oil, Gold, Metals, Downstream Stocks, Currency Futures, Option Prices Mechanism Simulation  2005 Forecast Workshop
 5 Day Global Interest Rates, Bond Yield, Stock Indices, Currency Futures, Option Prices Mechanism Simulation , Index, Debt Fund Asset Allocation Strategy  2005 Forecast Workshop

Global Capital Markets Asset Prices, Bubbles Simulation, Early Warning OSA 2005 strategic investment/ Basel II risk management lecture/workshops tours 
 (covered thousands lectures, 46 countries capital cities 30 million , banking,  finance corporate CEO, CFO, fund managers, senior executives  investors since 1983,
Taipei Nov. 16-20, 2004 80 email   osawhh@citiz.net , wh3928@yahoo.com for reservation

 Speaker, Dr. Warren Huang, Pioneer, Global leader, scholar in Global Strategic Management

   email   osawhh@citiz.net , wh3928@yahoo.com for reservation
All this website recommendation are for investors references, not responsible for any financial loss,
Dr. Huang has copy right on its contents, should not be used for any commercial use without  approval-
  OSA Global Strategic Simulation/Forecasts, Your most powerful daily predictive decision tools--
Predicted  3 months ahead last 20 years global currency, 1980, 90, 2000 energy , financial crisis , 1994-96 and current China macro-economic control, soft-landing, 2000 US IT bubble bursts, 2001 recession and rate cut, current rate hikes..

Thousands   causes and effect structural, dynamic proven predictive OSA simulators beat  daily money, capital, insurance, property markets ( published thousands articles, 30 million copies ( over 10 million readers ) for reliable tracking, forecasts 3 month ahead of last 20 years  central banks monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on global/China economy, daily capital market asset prices, bubble early warning, tailor to QFII/QDII  investment needs.  =======================================================================================
 first time  shown on this website the  most reliable  global stock indices , currency , wealth management OSA simulation charts 
 OSA Simulation Charts tracking forecasts 1-3 month ahead monetary policy on last 20 years daily
A. Consumer spending, Fed Fund rate, Dollar exchange rate impact on Dow Jones Index
B. Japan money supply growth, Yen exchange rate, Dow Jones impact on Tokyo Nikkei index
C. EU  money supply growth, EURO exchange rate, Dow Jones impact on German DAX index
D. Hong Kong money supply growth, interbank rate, Dow Jones impact on Henseng index have E.  US and EURO trade deficit/surplus, interest rate spread impact on EURO exchange rate
F. US and  Japan trade deficit/surplus, interest rate spread impact on  YEN  exchange rate...
 Dr. Warren Huang CV pioneered   thousand structural dynamic simulators  helping US, Taiwan, China, Singapore, Asian countries 30 years strategic knowledge economy and market economic market forces prices mechanism simulation forecasts maximize macroeconomic controls, R&D innovation global competitiveness
He.  accurately predicted  Nov. 5, 2003 in Singapore ,Shanghai Euro-events conferencesSingapore http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/ photos 1, 2, 3 lecture ppt  , Shanghai, Beijin Nov. 2003  Asian/China finance, capital Markets conferences,  www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm   picture  2  and to China economists meeting Fudan University, Shanghai , Dec. 2003 over 2000 QFII/QDII executives, May 8, 15, 2004 to US Silicon Valley investors, radio station , and  www.osawh.com website that excessive rate and tax cuts resulted manufacturing and consumer demand pushing US Oil prices  soared above 50, metals  prices reaching 23 year high drive 5000 downstream products prices and inflation up, will follow economic recovery in the second half of  2004 and not transitory .  weak dollar due  to soaring trade deficit, ( 55.3 billion  for June, 50 for July ) will drive  inflation up 5 %, bond market slump in May till the end of 2004  job creation, productivity, profit growth peaking out  in the second quarter 2004 Fed June, Aug  , Sept 0.25 % rate hikes China credit tightening, will follow US rate hike in 2004, Global economy facing inflationary slowdown accurate predicted US last quarter GDP at 3 %) and followed by stagflation this year with  stocks entering bear market consolidation, with 30- 50 % correction Global IPO  will facing 30-50 % correction  as Google will  plunged from 185 to 80-100, any attempt using IPO and  PG and Gillette merger to speculate market rebound will be followed by sell off bear trap   avoided trillion dollar bond, equities, derivative market loss made trillion dollar oil, commodity derivatives market profit.
US macroeconomic, inflation control  tracking, 2005 forecasts:
 Dr. Huang spoke to Euro-events Singapore , Shanghai, Beijin Nov.  2003  Asian/China Finance, Capital Markets conferences lecture to 2000 QFII, QDII mutual fund managers and  China Economist annual meeting Dec. 20 and San Francisco Silicon Valley finance radio and global finance investment seminar May7,  8, 15,2004 and   www.osawh.com   website  warning  global central banks excessive rate, tax cuts, ignoring Dr. Huang's warning on this website and global conferences, underestimated global economic recovery resulted inflation,  excessive demand for housing, manufacturing, auto pushed oil, metal constructional materials prices to new high and rising cost, prices to 5000 upstream /downstream raw materials, products  due to US  excessive rate, tax cuts, Fed raising rate , too little, too late , China delaying  rate hike to effectively cut market demand led to China Sept.  2004 CPI inflation up 5.2 % again and third quarter GDP growth still at 9.1 % due to increasing   business ( up 28 %)and consumer demand up 14 % ,will facing soaring inflation  from current 5.3 % to 6.6 %, US will facing inflation soared to 5 % in winter peaking holiday demand season .  US Greenspan, global economists,  market analysts over optimistic  over oil, commodity weakness and underestimate inflationary pressure  and 10 yr. bond yield too low , long interest rate has to go up to 5 % in the month ahead due to excessive business and consumer spending twin growth engine will drive second half 2004  and 2005 economic recovery, profit growth, bull market rally, Oct job creation of 337000, will repeating March ,, 2004 , 2005 growth will be below 112,000 , peaking out as entering peak holiday season,  underestimated on the impact of US dollar depreciation, excessive rate, tax cuts , 48 trillion dollar  housing, equities wealth effect resulted excessive consumer, business demand, NAPM peaking out in the second quarter at 66 ( already plunged to 56 as predicted ) driving soaring oil, commodities, metals asset prices bubble reaching 23 year high in March, May  and extending into the rest of  2004 and repeating in 2005 with  US trade deficit soared to  55- 60  billion and inflation, facing credit tightening, rate hikes after May, Aug. Sept , Nov 2004 and extending well into summer 2005, profit , productivity growth , consumer confidence , business spending,  peaking out,  economic leading indicators declined for 6 months ,business  facing profit  squeeze in  second half  2004, China and US, Global stocks bull markets are over, entering bear market consolidation.   US High tech, finance, housing, retails, auto share will give up  all its 2004 gain plunge  30-50 % and  trillion dollar loss in bond and stock markets repeating 1995 and 2000  and trillion dollar profits in oil, commodity futures investments
US inflation rate at  3.2 % in 2004, with business  spending up 14 %, consumer confidence above 100 ISM at 66 are inflationary, facing excessive inventory built up,  oil, soared to 56 currently consolidate in 47-50  cold winter will drive heating oil,  and oil price rebound to 55-60  gas to 9.0 and metals to  new high  in summer 2005  will drive up 20 sectors 5000 products costs and prices, inflation will be back to 3.5 % in spring, more rate hikes are on its way to cool off the economy, 10 year bond yield is too low, will return to 4.3- 5.0 %
Wall Street Market Research OSA Market Tracking, Forecasts: Global Capital Markets Asset prices tracking, forecasts:
Dr. Huang lectured to 50 European, Asian, Malaysian central banks, banking, finance executives Kuala Lumpur, Sept. 30, 2002 predicted that oil prices soared to 43, Dow Jones retest 7500 Nasdaq 1250, March 2003 on Asian Business Forum.   He lectured Nov. 2003 lectured to Euro-events Singapore http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/ photos 1, 2, 3 lecture ppt  , Shanghai, Beijin Nov. Asian/China finance, capital Markets conferences,  www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm2003   picture  2  and to China economists meeting Fudan University, Shanghai , Dec. over 2000 QFII/QDII executives, identify housing, equities wealth effect bubbles   month ahead, investment opportunities in China petrochemical upstream/downstream, steel, aluminum, telecommunications ADR , Shanghai A and Hong Kong H shares, mutual fund up 80 %  IPO shares up 150 % and early warning for asset bubbles in oil, commodities prices reaching 23  year peak( recommended invested in future, derivatives gained 5000 %) in March 2004, will drive China CPI to 5 %, with steel, cement over-invested 170 % and energy shortage will lead to further credit tightening, accurately predicted China Peoples bank raise bank reserve ratio 0.5 % to 7.5 % open market inter-bank rate (Chibor)must stay above 3.% to remove 110 billion from the capital markets,  US CPI to 5.1 %, core inflation to 2.7 % in the summer , overoptimistic over US economic recovery and job creation,( despite March strong 300,000  new jobs can not sustainable after June quarter tax rebate is over ( June job creation already down to 32,000) and  inflation outlook may lead to rate hike after May and summer lead to serious bond market plunge (US lose  380 billion dollar, China lose 270 billion) housing bubble repeat 1995 bond market crash and 2000 election bubble and global IT and blue chips banking shares will peaking out   facing  correction in the month ahead,  
 2005 Oil, commodity prices forecast
 Market speculators using Oil prices plunged from 55 to 40 and back to 56, and Intel profit , over-optimistic outlook, Apple profit up 70 % due to i-Pod new product innovation Dell 29 % profit gain to push Dell and High tech, and  IBM PC sale to China, Oracle PeopleSoft 10 billion dollar merger facing margin squeeze and Sprint Nextel 35 billion dollar merger all facing sharp competition, to speculate blue chips and Nasdaq will give up all its recent gain is premature ,oil price  rebound to 55 in March accurately predict by Dr. Huang in Beijing Feb 23, 2005 will challenge 60 due to OPEC one million production cut and winter and summer peak demand, and challenge 55- 60 in summer 2005.
2005 High tech stock performance forecasts
US and global IT ( from chips, PC, to telecommunication, entertaining) demand growth will be slow down to 6 % , facing profit squeeze, stock prices retreat 30 -50 %, with China internet stocks bubble burst, plunge 70- 80 % . Dell profit decline continue,  facing profit squeeze, pricing cutting from HP, Apple sales and general economic slowdown, Dell stock will plunge below 35, IBM test 85. HP profit, stock prices continue drag by PC operation (as warned by Dr. Huang on this website) speculating on HP CEO change will not improve near term profit, stock performance, only smart PC can lead to breakthrough.  Global IPO  will facing 30-50 % correction  as   Google enjoyed 7 fold earning increase, it has PE of 145, and profit margin of only 12 %, stock price at 215 is extremely overpriced, repeating Yahoo of 2000, will  plunged from 215 to 100-120, any attempt using IPO and  PG and Gillette merger to speculate market rebound will be followed by sell off bear trap   avoided trillion dollar bond, equities, derivative market loss made trillion dollar oil, commodity derivatives market profit.
US  dollar weakness continue in 2005:  Soaring import leading to record US trade deficit of 655 billion in summer will  drag US dollar into new low continue into this year Euro : 1.29- 1.45 , Yen 95- 102, 
Global stocks bear market correction into 2005, give up most of 2004 gain
 US, Asian and European stocks  follow US stocks  rebound currently will gave up all this year gain  China and US economic slowdown will drag global economic growth, stocks  ( including IPO )facing  30-50 % bear market  correction consolidation   Dow will be traded 9750- 10900, Nasdaq  1750- 2100 , S&P 1060-1200, US 10 year bond yield will be back to 4.4- 4.9 in March 2005. Taiwan index post election bubble burst from 7200 to  5000- 6100, Henseng 12500- 14200, Nikkei 10000- 11900, China credit tightening continue. Shanghai A 1150- 1300, Shenzhen 2750- 3350,  consolidation Hundred thousands integrated, global  structural, dynamics, deterministic proprietary model simulators first time 
 China Macroeconomic control tracking, forecasts: China started second phase credit tightening, rate hike series begin.
China finally raised prime rate by 0.27, to cool off the asset bubble, with structural rate hike, floating loan upper limit from  5.6- 12.5 %, Oct. 28, 2004, accurately  predicted by  Dr. Huang last Nov. 2003 in Euro-events Singapore, Shanghai, Beijing, Asian/China finance, capital market conference and May 8, 15, 2004 to San Francisco Silicon Valley Finance radio and Global Finance Forum, Hi tech investment seminar, Silicon Valley and on this website, visited by million global central banks, banking, finance, corporate executives.
Global central banks ignoring Dr. Huang's warning on this website and global conferences, underestimated global economic recovery resulted inflation, demand for housing, manufacturing, auto pushed oil, metal prices to new high and rising cost, prices to 5000 upstream /downstream raw materials, products resulted US Fed raising rate , too little, too late, China delaying  rate hike to effectively cut market demand led to China Sept.  CPI inflation up 5.2 % again and 2004 GDP growth still at 9.4 % due to increasing   business ( up 28 %)and consumer demand up 14 % ,will facing soaring inflation  from current 3.9 % to 5.6 % in winter peaking holiday demand season and summer 2005.   Despite  China Peoples Bank raised deposit ratio by 1.5 % and cutting capital investment in steel, cement, aluminum, auto loan lead to  some progress macroeconomic control with Sept. money supply growth at 13.6 % (below 17 % target), auto sales up only  10 %, asset prices, inflation  followed soaring oil price to 55,  all time high metal prices   coastal cities Beijin, Shanghai GDP up 14 %) from year ago, wealth effect, FDI drive national  housing prices up 14.8 % ( 2750 ) and 38 % for coastal cities Shanghai, Ninbo,, Guanzhou .  retail sale up 13.2, China 2004 GDP up 9.2 % far above 7 % target, medium, long term loan up 25.4  %, inflation up 4 % . China economy  is far from soft landing, will have very tough year to cut domestic demand and GDP below 8 % and  call the need for further  interest rate hike in summer and raise deposit reserve ratio   to cool off the consumer and housing demand in winter holiday peak and summer  season .  As. China Peoples bank issue 100 billion notes to cut 100 billion from the money market avoid overheated Chinese New Year demand further drive up inflation.  soaring China, US demand pushing China steel, cement, aluminum investment (over 120 %), coal, energy shortage,  stocks prices  rebound from 1250  to 1470 speculating over Premier's  915 statement over stock market stability is overheated ( accurately predicted by Dr. Huang on this website and already retreat to 1150) market is over, continue bear market technical rebound ( within 20 %  and consolidation, with Shanghai A testing 1150- 1300, IPO and newly listed small cap shares plunge 30-50 % with most testing its IPO price, low prices blue chips shares like Sinopec, Unicom will lead future rebound 20  %. , This supply side tightening are insufficient to cool  the uneven economic overheating,  as China raised key interest rate by 0.27 % and  implement  structural  rate hikes in late Oct. as predicted by Dr. Huang to cut off excessive consumer , business demand in housing, construction materials, auto and retails  demand . to cool off soaring housing and metals prices,  and  serious energy , electricity , coal shortage, and transportation, communication bottleneck. 
China benefited by lower food price, Jan CPI drop to 1.9 %  from Oct. 5.2 %, however rising heating oil, gas , coal, water, service charge ( oil prices will rebound 55 and feedstock price, falling dollar will push US and global inflation  in the winter heating demand drive China Feb inflation to 3.9 %
China has hard time  achieve soft landing in the second half 2005, as China Peoples Bank has to cut money supply growth below 10 % and GDP below 8 %. and fixed investment growth below 15 %  Dr. Huang also predicted  Oct. 1994 to China Wuhan securities news, Wangguo,  Kuotai  securities investors, BeijingChina Financial Times, China macroeconomic control will be soft-landing 1996, Shanghai A will be traded  between 600- 800 during 1994- 1996 He recommended that China stocks will be very attractive to QFII in the new Millennium
Global central banks, economist, financial market , industrial sectors analysts, CEO  ignoring ,Dr. Huang photo  warning to ECB, JP Morgan in Rome, China Peoples Bank governor Dai central bank governors conference in Macao, Taiwan central bank governor Asian Pacific conference Taipei, APEC finance Thailand prime minister, ASEAN central bank governors conferences in Bangkok, US Fed  governors , Washington Area, NASD finance conferences 1998-2000 on  IT asset bubble bursts
 Hundred thousands integrated, global  structural, dynamics, deterministic proprietary model simulators first time 
 CLick for Sample OSA Simulation Charts tracking forecasts 1-3 month ahead monetary policy on daily
A. Consumer spending, Fed Fund rate, Dollar exchange rate impact on Dow Jones Index
B. Japan money supply growth, Yen exchange rate, Dow Jones impact on Tokyo Nikkei index
C. EU  money supply growth, EURO exchange rate, Dow Jones impact on German DAX index
D. Hong Kong money supply growth, interbank rate, Dow Jones impact on Henseng index have been developed, implemented supporting the following  goal, mission, performance oriented  outsourcing strategic centers corporate/ memberships/ workshops   tailored to global government, enterprises, banking, finances enterprises  board members, think tank and executives in integrating into the global markets decision needs
 Dr. Huang global strategic investment/risk management lecture/workshops tours  (covered thousands lectures, 46 countries since 1980 )
Book Dr. Warren Huang's  China/US credit tightening impact on global recovery, capital market asset prices, risk  hedging 2004 second half  global investment strategy workshops (  June Taipei, Shanghai, Beijin, Hong Kong tour )getting ahead of the emerging trend, capitalize on China , US rate hike impact on global economy and capital markets, while minimize credit, markets, operational risks.osawhh@citiz.net
Dr. Warren Huang lectured  San Francisco Nexusdirect.net Huaxin securities Silicon Valley investors workshop on China/US rate hike, soaring oil prices impact on 2004 second half global asset allocation, investment strategy, May 15, 2004 at World Journal daily news center, predicted, recommended  accurately buy China Unicom, CNOOC ADR shares and US Silicon Valley high tech, biotech, as Nasdaq plunge below 1875, The Nasdaq did plunged to 1865 May 17, Monday, investors bought these share at their bottom, enjoyed 10 % profit in two days.  
======Dr. Warren Huang  North American China-US  TV radio interview, investment seminar Lecture =====
 Dr. Huang had half hour interview by Silicon Valley Financial TV, Radio station to speak on China/US credit tightening impact on economy and high tech/biotech corporate performance, stock prices, Global ADR asset allocation and risk management. accurately predicted Dow broke 10,000, Nasdaq broke 1900 to 1850, recommended to buy CHina ADR, US high tech share completed 30- 50 % correction, downgrade India high tech share. US Nasdaq plunged to 1875, May 10, India stocks plunged 12 % May 17
 Global Chinese Finance Forum San Francisco Silicon Valley High Tech/Biotech Investment Seminar 2004
An excellent opportunity to meet with Dr. Warren Huang to discuss “Market Trend and Outlook for Chinese Theme Stocks in US” and CEOs from five growing public companies to learn their current projects and growth potentials.
Date: May 8, 2004 (Saturday)        Time: 9:30-3:10pm  Venue: Crown Plaza Hotel, 777 Bellew Drive, Milpitas Format: Presentation in Chinese and English, Booths, Q&A, Lunch  

Registration and Information: Please visit www.GCFF.net 

==China stocks, bond, commodity, metals, mutual fund investment strategy, bubbles warning workshops== , reserve  osawhh@citiz.net 

Dr. Huang global strategic investment/risk management lecture/workshops tours  (covered thousands lectures, 46 countries since 1980 )
Book Dr. Warren Huang's  China/US credit tightening impact on global recovery, capital market asset prices, risk  hedging 2004 second half  global investment strategy workshops (  June Taipei, Shanghai, Beijin, Hong Kong tour )getting ahead of the emerging trend, capitalize on China credit tightening, US rate hike impact on global economy and capital markets, while minimize credit, markets, operational risks.
 
  Structural, dynamic Predictive Global Central Banks Monetary Policy for Sustainable Growth and Asset Prices Stability Guidance and Control:  Policy Impact Simulation  Workshops
Monetary,  Economic, Fiscal Policy, WTO  impact on Global  Economic, Business cycles, Asset, Wealth , Prices  bubbles burst, oil, energy , Currency crisis, recession FEED FORWARD ( predicted 3-6 month ahead) SUSTAINABLE GROWTH AND ASSET PRICES STABILITY CONTROL Financial Markets Return, Asset Allocation, Strategic Risks OSA (RIGHT  HAND )  
Structural, Dynamics simulation of Monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on last 20 years global macro economic, business cycles, capital market asset prices, bubbles , financial crisis, boom and busts achieving growth and prices stability control predicted 1- 3 month ahead,  Global financial crisis since 1980 and 2000 high tech bubble burst and 2001-2003 global market crash and recovery :
Dr. Warren Huang HAS BEEN INVITED TO SPEAK TO 24 GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS GOVERNORS  CONFERENCE ( FRB, ECB, China Peoples Bank, Taiwan, Japan, Korea, Thailand, Asian ) since 1998 warned that Global high tech bubble burst will plunge 50-70 % and facing recession. He offered thousands lectures accurately predicted China Peoples Banks monetary policy impact on 1994-96 macro-economic control-soft landing on China daily stock markets to China 15 cities 30 million investors, national newspapers during 1994-1998 in China and again predicted China excessive money supply, housing bubble facing tightening Mar. 2003 Shanghai workshops

   Thousands   causes and effect structural, dynamic proven predictive OSA simulators beat  daily money, capital, insurance, property markets ( published thousands articles, 30 million copies ( over 10 million readers ) for reliable tracking, forecasts 3 month ahead of last 20 years  central banks monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on global/China economy, daily capital market asset prices, bubble early warning, tailor to QFII/QDII  investment needs.
 Dr. Huang accurately  predicted  last 20 years daily US interest rate, commodities, gold, oil prices daily capital market prices 4 month ahead and again at  Shanghai University of Finance, Economics, Oct. 25,  Euro-event  Singapore, Nov. 5,  2003 Asian Finance, capital market conference on  Monetary policy impact on Asian and China  economic outlook, asset prices, warned  that any free float of RMB will  lead to China currency crisis and US runaway inflation and  repeat past global financial crisis, bubble burst. Only Dr. Huang's two master hands ( interest rate and trade, economic policy ) market forces price mechanism guide through RMB gradual appreciation is the best approach, regardless peg to the dollar or a basket of currency. and  recommended to  buy Russia oils,  China A, B ADR  oil, petroch( PTR, SNP, CEO), steel, aluminum share and Hong Kong H shares due to soaring Russia China, demand, profits, DFI inflow, while sell overheated US,  Taiwan,  Singapore, Korea, Japan, German  IT shares, due to price cutting. commodity, oil prices soared to 19 year high will  drive US CPI to 2.6 %, core inflation to 1.7 % in the summer ,  serious housing bubble will lead to rate hike,  buy with caution global banking, finance stocks due to low interest rate, soaring housing, stock markets facing bubble burst.   and continue recommendation on China shares  on China finance, capital market conference  Shanghai, Nov. 25 ,  Beijin, Nov. 27  2003, but warned China  stocks bubble on China economic society annual meeting, Fudan Univeristy, Dec. 20, 2003 bubbles in China ADR share up 50 % -80 % after Dr. Huang Nov. 5 recommendation 
 and also on this website  accurately predicted US and Taiwan will repeat 1999-2000  post election bubble burst /deflation , with current recovery peaking out third quarter 2003 (GDP 8.3 % ,consumer, spending, money supply growth at 8 %, ISM over 66, productivity at 9.5 % are inflationary and  unsustainable, dollar plunge,( ECB will leave rate unchange to take the pressure of EURO) inflationary already leading to  19 year high in commodity oil prices, soaring housing, equities prices, wealth effect bubble burst in post election, Taiwan index retest 5000- 5500 , US   raise interest rate by year end 2004 or later ,facing slowdown ( 3 % GDP  ) by year end,  now, China Jan whole sales prices up 6.7%, consumer prices up 5.7 % will continue credit tightening, as confirmed by China People's bank Jan 5 to cut the money supply growth from 2003's 18 % to 17 % this year and Greenspan indicated the need for rate hike Peoples Bank credit tightening in steel, cement, auto, housing will facing 20 % correction , China life IPO will give up most of its gain  US rate hike by May 2004, ,US dollar stabilize ,oil prices traded 28-36, gold price peaking out , traded 380-430  as confirmed by China People's bank Jan 5 to cut the money supply growth from 2003's 18 % to 14- 15 % this year , China leave RMB unchange and Greenspan indicated the need for rate hike Taiwan will face slowdown by year end
USA    Australia  Asian  Canada  China   Hong Kong   Taiwan    Thailand   Japan  S. Korea   Singapore  Malaysia  Phillipines  Indonesia   Viet-Nan   India  UK/EURO  Russia/E. Europe    Mexico   Argentina  Brazil
 US and global markets   global capital markets investment strategic simulation tailored to your need . please email wh3928@yahoo.com for reservation
========= Special Strategic Wealth management conference, workshops  Announcement ============
OSA pioneer Dr. Warren Huang return from  Asia, lectured on Monetary policy impact on global capital markets asset prices, bubble early warning, risk management  to Euro-events  Asian finance, capital markets conference Nov. 5, 2003, China, finance, capital market conference, Nov. 25, 2003, Shanghai, Nov. 27, Beijin, 2003  will offer keynote speech and half day workshop for Wealth Management Conference: March. 23-35, 2004, Grand Hyatt, Singapore. He will speak on Global strategic wealth management , asset allocation, and risk hedging , introducing thousands strategic investment simulators predicted 3 month ahead  on global financial crisis, asset, wealth bubble burst, avoided trillion dollar market, wealth loss for 30 million China, Taiwan, Asian, US, European investors since 1985
He will offer in-house strategic wealth management workshops for Beijin, Shanghai, Hong, Kong, Taipei, Singapore QFII, QDII, VIP investors, traders , banking, insurance CEO, executives during Feb- March reserve by osawhh@citiz.net  /wh3928@yahoo.com  
======================================================================================
Hundred thousands integrated, global  structural, dynamics, deterministic proprietary model simulators
first time  shown on this website the most reliable  global central banks monetary policy, daily  open market operations impact on stock indices , currency , wealth management OSA simulation sample charts (last update Oct. 2002)
 OSA Simulation Charts tracking forecasts 1-3 month ahead monetary policy impact on last 20 years daily
A. Consumer spending, Fed Fund rate, Dollar exchange rate impact on Dow Jones Index
B. Japan money supply growth, Yen exchange rate, Dow Jones impact on Tokyo Nikkei index
C. EU  money supply growth, EURO exchange rate, Dow Jones impact on German DAX index
D. Hong Kong money supply growth, interbank rate, Dow Jones impact on Henseng index have  
E.  US and EURO trade deficit/surplus, interest rate spread impact on EURO exchange rate
F. US and  Japan trade deficit/surplus, interest rate spread impact on  YEN  exchange rate
 developed, implemented by OSA pioneer Dr. Warren Huang, supporting the following  goal, mission, performance oriented outsourcing strategic centers corporate/ memberships/ workshops   tailored to global government, enterprises, banking, finances enterprises  board members, think tank
=============================================================================
Taiwan 2004 Economy, Capital Market OSA Forecasts  .= =
Monetary, Economic, Fiscal Policy, oil prices impact on Taiwan Economy, demand, financial markets prices
 Monetary Policy on  inflation, GNP and economic indicators  for sustainable  growth and asset price stability)
 OSA simulation  macro-economics:
Inflation rate = F (Money supply growth rate %, Oil prices, Commodity index, Dollar exchange rate)
GNP = F (Money supply growth rate %, Interest Rate, Export Growth Rate)
Property prices = F (Money supply growth rate %, Interest Rate, stock index)
NAPM = F( Consumer spending growth rate %, Interest Rate, stock index)
Business, consumer spending = F( Overnite interest rate, money supply growth,  exchange rate)
Stock indices = F(  Nasdaq index), Interest rate,  exchange rate
 Wealth Effect = F( money supply, consumer, business spending, interest rate, currency, stock index, housing prices)
Taiwan  central bank   Monetary Policy on  inflation, GNP and economic indicators
Taiwan is still recovering from 1990 housing and stock market bubble burst and 2000 high tech and post election  ( IT upstream/ downstream ) bubble bursts,  and repeating 2000 post election bubble burst and structural change as downstream labor intensive industries moving out of  into China, ( suffered 60 billion capital out flow .
Taiwan stock index plunged with Nasdaq 65 % to 3400 in 2001( predicted by Dr. Huang in Beijin July, 2001 to China Peoples Bank staff and rebound to 6500, plunged to 4100  April  2003 as suffering by Asian SARS and US slowdown. Economy contracted 0.5 %  and facing deflation in the second quarter 2003 and money supply growth plunged to 2 % and unemployment soared to 5.2 %, housing 50 % fro 2000 peak
However, Benefited by Asian recovery, soaring US, EURO demand for semiconductor, computer, plastics export, Taiwan  economy is  recovering  in the second half  2003, with money supply growth  back to 6 % industrial production up 12.3 %, with GDP  back to 4.2 % growth  unemployment down from 5.5 %  to 5.1 % soaring trade, current account balance and Foreign reserve of  215  billions. 
Taiwan Stock index followed Nasdaq,  and China concept shares soared from bottom of 4000 to  7060 are overheated, will repeat 2000 election bubble burst  to retest 5000- 5600
NT dollar exchange appreciate from 35.2  to 31.  overvalued, retest 31.5- 32.50
Taiwan  facing contraction in the second quarter 2003 due  to  Asian SARS. It  enjoy 5 % GDP growth in the second half and this year due to strong semiconductors export,  and lower interest rate at 1%, benefited by US and China, Asian economic recovery
Taiwan stock Index simulation
Taiwan IT industry drag into recession by   US   semiconductors slump,  in 2001.
US recovery in chips , IT  demand will further help Taiwan  export  and led to industrial production rebound  12  % and looking for 4. % GDP  in the second half  2003 and  5.5 % 2004
 Taiwan IT , plastics, finance stocks overheated for correction, Taiwan stock index will be facing post election bubble burst, traded 5000-5600
NT $ currency:   falling oil prices and rebound in export improve Taiwan 's trade surplus   exchange rate   31.1-32.50 
Taiwan  Housing, Stocks  prices wealth management bubble Simulation /Forecasts:
Dr. Huang published thousands articles on Taiwan's economic, financial investment journals, daily newspapers accurately  predicted Taiwan  housing prices soared 10 time in 1986-1990 and bubble burst, plunge 50 %  1990-1993 up 30 % in 1995- 2000 as money supply growth soared form 5 % to 35 % in 1989  Taiwan  index from 650 to 12800,, It plunged 80 % to 2200 in 1990 and soared to 10200 in 2000  and plunged to 3400 in 2001. housing prices plunged 30 % in 2001 , 50 % in  early 2003 recovering slowly this year as stock rebound from 4000 to 7060 and low interest rate at 1.1 %  resulted wealth effect lead to some luxury housing strong rebound   already overheated.
 Benefited by Asian recovery, soaring US, EURO demand for semiconductor, computer, plastics export, Taiwan  economy is  recovering  in the second half  2003, with money supply growth  back to 5 % with GDP  back to 3 % growth  unemployment down from 5.5 %  to 5.1 % soaring trade, current account balance and Foreign reserve of  185  billions. 
Taiwan  facing contraction in the second quarter 2003 due  to  Asian SARS. It will enjoy 3 % GDP growth in the second half and 5 % 2004 due to strong semiconductors export,  and lower interest rate at 1%,  stock market rebound related wealth effect, benefited by US and Asian economic recovery will extend into 2004. face slowdown by yearend due to China and US, EURO credit tightening
Taiwan semiconductors/electronics ADR shares prices OSA,  asset bubble earning warning,

Name Symbols outlook.  early warning trading range
Advanced Tech ASX  price cutting, competition   4-  8
Dialog. semicon DLGS  price cutting, competition   10- 15
Gigabyte Tech GGBYY credit tightening, price cutting, competition    6 - 9
Micronix Intl MXICY price cutting, competition   2- 3.5
Mosel Vitelic MOSLY price cutting, competition   1- 3
PROMOS TECH PTIQF price cutting, competition  3 -  6
Siliconwar precision SPIL price cutting, competition   4-  8
Sunplus Tech SNPLY price cutting, competition    3- 6
Taiwan Semicon TSM price cutting, competition   9- 12.
United Microele. UMC price cutting, competition   5- 7
Winbond ele. WBEKY price cutting, competition  4- 7
walsin Lihwa WSLWY price cutting, competition  3-  5
Teco Elect TEMRY price cutting, competition  3-  5
Quanta computer QUCPY price cutting, competition 10- 12
Nanya Tech NNYAY price cutting, competition  6-- 9
Hon Hai precision HNHAY price cutting, competition  8--12
Chunghwa Pict CNWAY price cutting, competition 10- 13
Asustek Computer AKCPY price cutting, competition 2- 4
China steel CISEY demand up,, price cutting, competition 16- 20
Fareastern Texitle FREYY rising costs, price cutting, competition 5- 8
First Financial Hold FFHLY demand up, default risks 13- 17.5
Fubon Financial FUISY demand up, defaults risks 8- 11
       

=======   Conference/in-house workshops Announcement ==============
==== Shanghai/Beijin Euro-events   Conference/in-house workshops Announcement =====
 ==  China Finance, Capital Market Summit  Conference/in-house workshops ====
 You are welcome to join Dr. Huang lecture to Shanghai lectures to  Euro-Events  China Finance and Capital Market  SUMMIT conference and booth at 500, Weihai Rd. , Four Seasons Hotel,  Nov. 25 and  Beijin  Nov.  27 to 400  China  government regulation, banking, finance ,  QFII, corporate CEO, CFO, executives on Monetary, economic, fiscal policy WTO impact on China economy and capital market asset prices, bubble, wealth management simulation, risk management  He will demonstrate his successful experience in predicting 1994-96 macroeconomic control soft-landing (offered thousand nationwide TV, radio daily tracking lecturing and 100 banking, finance companies risk management) and current China Peoples Bank credit tightening
 www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm2003
Other Asian countries  by reservation  osawhh@citiz.net   or  wh3928@yahoo.com Dr. Warren Huang speak to Shanghai Finance and Economic University China Finance for sustainable growth Shanghai Oct. 25  and Dec. 20 to Peking University China economic research center sponsored China economic society annual meeting at Fudan University  on Strategic China  Banking, Finance, Enterprises Reform  introducing OSA simulation models. on-China capital market asset prices, wealth effect  simulation, bubble early warning Monetary , economic, fiscal policy , foreign investments impact on China  capital market  industrial sectors market  forces in market economy,  demand, prices mechanism, profit margin, investment return and risk management 
He will offer Shanghai  full day in house CEO/CFO financial managers  China capital market , banking, finance, reform and capital market asset prices  mechanism  SUMMIT workshops  
======Special  Strategic Structural Wealth Management Risks Hedging /workshops  Announcement =======
OSA pioneer Dr. Warren Huang will offer full day Structural Strategic Wealth Management and Risks Hedging
  He will speak on Global strategic wealth management , asset allocation, and risk  early warning, hedging , introducing thousands strategic investment simulators predicted 3 month ahead  on global financial crisis, asset, wealth bubble burst, avoided trillion dollar market, wealth loss for 30 million China, Taiwan, Asian, US, European investors, VIP traders, money managers since 1985 
Thousands structural dynamic OSA  futures, option prices simulators tracking  forecasts 3 month ahead last 20 years monetary, economic, fiscal, trade policy impact on global economy, daily global financial markets performance and provide early warning , risk hedging covering all  crisis, avoided markets and hedging fund, wealth managers speculating on the business, economic, market news , chasing the markets, betting on the direction resulted trillion dollar loss. He will offer in-house strategic wealth management workshops for Beijin, Shanghai, Hong, Kong, Taipei, Singapore QFII, QDII, VIP investors, traders , banking, insurance CEO, executives during March- April  2004 reserve by osawhh@citiz.net  /wh3928@yahoo.com===  Singapore Asia Finance, Capital Market Summit  Conference/in-house workshops ====
 Dr. Huang spoke to Singapore Euro-Events Asian Finance and Capital Market  SUMMIT conference Nov.5  2003, three  hundred Asian government regulation, , banking, finance , corporate CEO, CFO, executives on Monetary, economic, fiscal policy WTO impact on Asian ( China, Hong Kong, Japan, Korea, Singapore, Taiwan )economy and capital market asset prices, wealth management bubble, simulation, risk management  http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/  with excellent feedback photos 1, 2, 3 lecture ppt
Other Asian countries by reservation  osawhh@citiz.net   or  wh3928@yahoo.com Dr. Warren Huang will speak to Shanghai Finance and Economic University China Finance for sustainable growth Shanghai Oct. 25 on China capital market asset prices simulation, bubble early warning Monetary , economic, fiscal policy , foreign investments impact on China  capital market  industrial sectors market  forces in market economy,  demand, prices mechanism, profit margin, investment return and wealth , risk management 
He will offer Shanghai  full day in house CEO/CFO financial managers  China capital market Banking, Real Estate, Construction materials  auto asset prices, bubble simulation workshops
  first time  shown on this website the  most reliable  global stock indices , currency OSA simulation charts ( last update Oct. 2002), go to in-house workshops for recent update)
 Hundred thousands integrated, global  structural, dynamics, deterministic proprietary model simulators
 first time  shown on this website the  most reliable  global stock indices , currency OSA simulation charts 
OSA Simulation Charts tracking forecasts 1-3 month ahead monetary policy on last 20 years daily
A. Consumer spending, Fed Fund rate, Dollar exchange rate impact on Dow Jones Index
B. Japan money supply growth, Yen exchange rate, Dow Jones impact on Tokyo Nikkei index
C. EU  money supply growth, EURO exchange rate, Dow Jones impact on German DAX index
D. Hong Kong money supply growth, interbank rate, Dow Jones impact on Henseng index have been developed, implemented supporting the following  goal, mission, performance oriented  outsourcing strategic centers corporate/ memberships/ workshops   tailored to global government, enterprises, banking, finances enterprises  board members, think tank and executives in integrating into the global markets decision needs:
 Taiwan stock Index simulation
 ========= Shanghai  Conference/in-house workshops Announcement ==============
Dr. Warren Huang will speak to Shanghai Finance and Economic University China Finance for sustainable growth Shanghai Oct. 25 on China capital market asset prices simulation, bubble early warning Monetary , economic, fiscal policy , foreign investments impact on China  capital market  industrial sectors market  forces in market economy,  demand, prices mechanism, profit margin, investment return and risk management 
He will offer Shanghai  full day in house CEO/CFO financial managers  China capital market Banking, Real Estate, Construction materials  auto asset prices, bubble simulation workshops  Oct. 27-Nov. 1

====== Singapore Asia Euro-Events  Conference/in-house workshops Announcement =======
 Dr. Huang will speak to Singapore Euro-Events Asian Finance and Capital Market conference Nov.5
three hundred Asian government regulation, , banking, finance , corporate CEO, CFO, executives on Monetary, economic, fiscal policy WTO impact on Asian economy and capital market asset prices, bubble, simulation, risk management
He will offer  full day in house CEO/CFO workshops in Singapore NOV 6- 9
Other Asian countries Nov. 28- Dec 18 by reservation  osawhh@citiz.net   or  wh3928@yahoo.com
US recovery in chips , IT  demand will further help Taiwan  export  and led to industrial production rebound  8  % and looking for 3. % GDP  in the second half  Dr. Huang  predicted and warned here again early Sept that global economist and market analyst treated unemployment as lagging indicators ignoring  US and global high unemployment will drag consumer confidence and stock prices 10 % correction.
 Taiwan IT stock overheated for correction, Taiwan stock index will be traded 5250-5900
NT $ currency:   rebound in export improve Taiwan 's trade surplus   exchange rate   33.5-34.1   =============================================================================,
Trillion dollar Nonperformance   assets Management, workshops,   sponsored by Peking Univeristy Guahua School of Management, Executive Develpement Dec 5-6, 2002, Beijin zhoucs@gsm.pku.edu.cn
  OSA maximize nonperformance asset cost performance, value recovery, pre-warning for future NPL workshops in December in Asia  tracking the causes, onset, recovery, prevent of your   debt, equities, properties nonperformance  asset  email wh3928@yahoo.com for  your in-house workshop reservation
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 Dr. Huang   return from Asia, lectured to Asian Business Forum's  ABS conference  Kual Lumpur Sept 2002 to  European, Asian central banks, stock exchanges, banking, securities executives on global nonperformance loan debt, equities, properties  asset prices , credit risk simulation, investment strategy and  Asset Backed Securitization workshops: He warned that US, and global stock facing final stage correction in early March 2003  predicting the unpredictable futures to  minimize bad loan ,shares buy back  procurement

Monetary, Economic, Fiscal Policy, oil prices impact on Taiwan Economy, demand, financial markets prices
 Monetary Policy on  inflation, GNP and economic indicators  for sustainable  growth and asset price stability)
 OSA simulation  macro-economics:
Inflation rate = F (Money supply growth rate %, Oil prices, Commodity index, Dollar exchange rate)
GNP = F (Money supply growth rate %, Interest Rate, Export Growth Rate)
Property prices = F (Money supply growth rate %, Interest Rate, stock index)
NAPM = F( Consumer spending growth rate %, Interest Rate, stock index)
Business, consumer spending = F( Overnite interest rate, money supply growth,  exchange rate)
Stock indices = F(  Nasdaq index), Interest rate,  exchange rate
 Wealth Effect = F( money supply, consumer, business spending, interest rate, currency, stock index, housing prices)
Taiwan  central bank   Monetary Policy on  inflation, GNP and economic indicators
Taiwan is still recovering from 1990 housing and stock market bubble burst and 2000 high tech ( IT upstream/downstream ) bubble bursts, and structural change as downstream labor intensive industries moving out of the countries into China, ( suffered 60 billion capital out flow .
Taiwan stock index plunged with Nasdaq 65 % to 3400 in 2001( predicted by Dr. Huang in Beijin July, 2001 to China Peoples Bank staff and rebound to 6500, plunged to 4100  April  2003 as suffering by Asian SARS and US slowdown. Economy contracted 0.5 %  and facing deflation in the second quarter 2003 and money supply growth plunged to 2 % and unemployment soared to 5.2 %
However, Benefited by Asian recovery, soaring US, EURO demand for semiconductor, computer, plastics export, Taiwan  economy is  recovering  in the second half  2003, with money supply growth  back to 6 % with GDP  back to 5 % growth  unemployment down from 5.5 %  to 5.1 % soaring trade, current account balance and Foreign reserve of  185  billions. 
Taiwan Stock index soared from bottom of 4000 to  6260,
NT dollar exchange appreciate from 35.2  to 34.1 
Taiwan  facing contraction in the second quarter 2003 due  to  Asian SARS. It will enjoy 3 % GDP growth in the second half and this year due to strong semiconductors export,  and lower interest rate at 1%, benefited by US and Asian economic recovery
Taiwan stock Index simulation
Taiwan IT industry drag into recession by   US   semiconductors slump,  in 2001.
US recovery in chips , IT  demand will further help Taiwan  export  and led to industrial production rebound  8  % and looking for 3. % GDP  in the second half  2003 and 5 % 2004
 Taiwan IT stock overheated for correction, Taiwan stock index will be traded 5700-6300
NT $ currency:   falling oil prices and rebound in export improve Taiwan 's trade surplus   exchange rate   33.7-34.3 
Taiwan  Housing, Stocks  prices wealth management bubble Simulation /Forecasts:
Dr. Huang published thousands articles on Taiwan's economic, financial investment journals, daily newspapers accurately  predicted Taiwan  housing prices soared 10 time in 1986-1990 and bubble burst, plunge 50 %  1990-1993 up 30 % in 1995- 2000 as money supply growth soared form 5 % to 35 % in 1989  Taiwan  index from 650 to 12800,, It plunged 80 % to 2200 in 1990 and soared to 10200 in 2000  and plunged to 3400 in 2001. housing prices plunged 30 % in 2001 , recovering slowly this year as stock rebound from 4000 to 6350 and low interest rate at 1.1 %   already overheated.
 Profile/Founder  Dr. Warren Huang, Pioneer of two master hands controlling Global economic cycles and Capital Markets Asset Prices Mechanism, Market Forces, Bubble Burst Risks Simulation, Financial Crisis early warning and  Global Strategic Knowledge Based Strategic Government, Business Process Demand Forecasts OSA Optimization Operations Simulation Analysis OSA
over 30 years pioneering  development, implement of global integrated strategic investment, supply chain  logistics , crisis, risks, business Operations Simulations Analysis (OSA) and optimization  ( patented in US " Improve Process by OSA" 1980 over 80 countries) for US Mobil, AMOCO, Phillips Petroleum, Stauffer Chemicals, Bechtel, Fluor , Bailey Network Control headquarters corporate finance, information management  in refinery, petrochemical, power plant, steel, copper, coal project investment, construction, design, preventive maintenance, crisis, risk management and strategic consulting to US depart of energy, Taiwan ministry of economic affairs energy policy, information technology,  state enterprises ( Chinese Petroleum, China Petrochemicals, China Steel, Aluminum, Reform, change management, and economic planning for  10 public construction projects planning, performance tracking and upgrade, trade promotion councils, and 300,000 importer/exporter 100 countries currency, 5000 products export pricing quote.  offered hundreds China, Hong Kong, Taiwan  capital markets daily  investment strategy and risk management workshops for China ministry of finance nationwide 100 banking, securities companies CEO,, CFO, money managers  executives,  tracking China Peoples Bank monetary, economic policy WTO impact on macro economic control, daily capital market  prices Shanghai, Shenzhen A, B shares: 20 industrial sectors 5000 products demand, prices, profit margin, listed stocks IPO, merger/acquisition reform, investment strategy  Asian, global governments , banking, finance,  hundreds state, medium, small enterprises reform, change management.  He also offered hundred workshops for Japan, Korea, Indonesia, Singapore, Kuala Lumpur, Bangkok CEO, CFO, investment, supply chain executives .
 He pioneered two master hands controlling last 20 years global economy, financial market prices offered thousands lectures to  millions  CHina, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Japan, Korea, ASEAN banking, securities, insurance, properties, state, medium, small enterprises senior executives and China, Taiwan 15 cities TV, radio 30 millions investors, banking, finance executives  (pdf )on tracking monetary, economic, fiscal policy WTO impact on last 25 years global economic cycles industrial sectors demand, asset prices , bubble, privatization, IPO, strategic merger/acquisition, listed companies profit , stock prices  simulation, financial market investment strategy and early warning, risk management (workshops Chinese, English) Global , invited to speak to 24 global( US, ECB, China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Asian ) central bank governors, corporate governance, financial crisis, risk management conferences .  supporting security, banking, insurance regulation, Sarbanes-Oxley Act on financial accounting auditing maximize performance, transparency  He published  32 global strategic business process optimization systems by  US Gulf Publishing Hydrocarbon Processing Advanced Process Control, Information Systems handbook, 1991-2003. applied by 1600 multinationals from 72 countries.
He has been editor/columnist and consultant for macro/financial economic  industrial finance, investment forum, energy, information technology, global strategic management for Taiwan government, banking, finance, industrial, importer/exporter trade, investment journal, Central, Economic, Commercial Times, Industrial Economic daily newspapers and  China Economic, Financial Times, Shanghai, China, Shenzhen, Wuhan Securities daily newspapers, wrote thousands articles on reform, change management, investment risk management for US, Taiwan, China government economic, finance, banking, securities, industrials, journal  weekly economic, finance investment  journal, daily newspapers and Taiwan 300,000 importer/exporters weekly trade journals. and this website visited by million global central banks, central, state, city government, banking, finance, enterprises  executives.
He trained thousands Chemical Eng industrial economics, global strategic management students for Taiwan, Tsinghua, Tunghai universities and lecture China Peking, Tsinghua, Fudan, Jiaotung, Zechiang, Dalian universities on  economic management, Chemical Eng. computer control, financial engineering, 
Millions global central banks, government, banking, finance, enterprises, CEO, CFO,  executives visited and supported www.osawh.com website since July 1998  (Partial lists)
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Global central banks, government agency:
FRB, ECB, China Peoples banks, State department, IMF, World Bank, UN, OCED,US  Dept of energy, NASA ,
Global Banking, finance, insurance:
JP Morgan, Chase, Citigroup, UBS, Merill Lynch, Goldman Sach, State Street, Fidelity, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Mizuho, Prudential, ManuLife, Cathy Life ,CNA, J Hancock , State Farm,  Lehman, Bloomberg, Dow Jones. Reuter, Wall Street Journal, Business Week
Corporate : McKinsey,  Ernest Young, KPMG, IBM, HP, Compaq, NEC, CISCO, Intel, AMD, Nokia,  Taiwan Semiconductors, UMC, Honhai, Motorola, Exxon-Mobil, BP, Shell, Aramco, Dupont, Dow, ORCL, Boeing, GM, BMW, Honda, Samsung, Ford), Merck, Amgen, Johnson, Celera, Weth)
Academic/Education:
Northwestern, Michigan, Harvard, Stanford, Duke, MIT, Princeton, UC Berkeley, NYU, George Washington, Rutgers, UCSF, UCSD, UPensilvania,  Columbia, Chicago, Cornell, Cambridge, London  from 70 countries
 Most active stocks prices OSA/forecasts
 IT upstream/downstream stocks soared 50- 100 %  overheated , facing consolidation
These deterministic, dynamic simulation of last 20 years global asset prices, and economy boom and bust of the asset bubble vicious cycle of excessive monetary policy, low interest rate induced sustained long term bull markets stocks prices gain caused consumer and business spending in real estate properties pushed soaring housing prices and rent. And deficit spending (negative saving) in stock markets, pushed the stock s even higher, until abrupt reverse of consumer and investor confidence --the bubble burst- plunge of stocks and properties prices as it happened in US, Japan, Taiwan in 1980, 1987, 1990, energy crisis, EURO 1992 currency crisis, 1994 China runaway inflation, 1995 Mexico crisis, 1997-98 ASEAN, Japan, Korea, Russia, Brazil currency crisis, all caused by overpriced stock prices due to excess monetary policy and high GDP growth
USA        China      Thailand       Taiwan      Japan      Hong Kong     Korea        Singapore    Indonesia     Canada  Mexico

Website : www.osawh.com email: / whuang3928@aol.com
Tel 1-510-524-0283 Fax 1-510-524-4484
Services: Bubble Burst simulation and prevention Workshops , On the Job Training program : OSA Strategic, execution teams All supported by simulation charts for training simulators.