Chinese (中文)   
Full Day Proactive Structural Taiwan/China/US macroeconomics inflation, currency, equities, housing, commodites, Banking, Finance, Energy, Construction Materials Prices bubbles, REIT Fund performance simulations and markets rIsks, mortgage crisis , Recession Risks early warning workshops  (Condensed full day program  from 5 day full program)
(
presented to China Peoples Bank, 24 global central banks governors, structured finance, fund, wealth management, oil market investment risk management confernces since 1999)
 
Integrating Fundamentals  demand, price mechanim, , Technical Analysis into Proactive Structural Quantitative Simulation Models ( replacing current statitical, probabilitic model) predicted years, month ahead of the emerging market trend of global developed, emerging economy, housing, commodities, equities, bond asset prices bubbles  boom and bust cycles and real time market price tracking, Interest rate, inflation, currency , oil, financial, housing mortgage default, IT sectors, component stocks ,  ETF  maximize fund risk adjusted return, prices simulation, asset allocation , Equities ,asset bubbles burst  crisis systemic risks early warning strategy , avoided trillion dollar market loss.  
Proactive Structural Dynamic Simulation of last 20 years China/US/ Taiwan housing prices bubbles bursts, Mortgage Defaults Crisis,  Macro-economic inflation, housing industry control credit tightening, stock market wealth resulted excessive liquidity , unemplyment targeting, monetary , interest  rate  policy Impact on mortgage rate,  national, regional housing sales, pricing, Equities Prices Bubbles,Commercial, Residential Mortgage Loan Credit Rating, Prepayment, Defaults, Recovery Modeling, Bond Spread in Assets Securitization, Risks Hedging 
             
         
                                                 Hong Kong,  Beijin, Shanghai, Taipei   in-house workshops
                                       by reservation  at your convenient time at yuor office wh3928@yahoo.com                          
                                  conducted  by Dr. Warren Huang, Pioneer, Global Strategic Investment OSA

   Preparing for Macroeconomic control,  rate cuts, global commodities, housing, equities price bubbles burst, Housing Market Credit Crunch, Mortgage Default    Crisis Early Warning  

Select your country, we will provide full day  monetary, housing industry price control policy impact on macro economic control, inflation, interest rates, currency, commodities, banking, finance, energy, national, regional commercial, residential housing prices,  and stocks market REIT fund   performances ,  bubbles, CMBS, RMBS, CDO, indexing, ETF  assets pricing, allocation strategy, credits, performance, mortgage default crisis analysis, risk hedging.
Dr. Warren Huang was the master class workshop lecturer for Terrapinn Fund World China 2008 conference, Shanghai  Pudong Shangri-La hotel, March 6, 2008 to offer one day condensed program
, integrating market  ,fundamentals, quantitative, technical analysis into proactive quantitative fundamental models, for strategic  structural  BRIC, GXC, 1xx/xx ETF long-short  fund asset pricing and allocation strategy in 2008
Find out breakthrough innovation in proactive structural artificial intelligence, neural net based expert systems macro, financial, banking, housing,  industrial  assets pricing econometrics  integration, simulation  and extension to Engle's Exponential GARCH  dynamic times series estimation co-integration into Granger Causes and Casualty analysis of US//China/Asian housing, equities, currency, commodities price bubbles, tracking the causes, onset, recovery, early warning of US/China, global central banks monetary  interest rate removing excessive liquidity, emerging bear/bull trend of  stock market  impact on macroeconomic control inflation, un-employment, housing mortgage crisis, global  housing, equities , currencies, commodities prices, mortgage rate, nationwide major cities, counties housing, demand prices , associated   default, recovery modeling, ABS,  CMBS,  RMBS, CDO , REIT mortgage  bond spread, China Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 and global stock  Indexing simulation forecasts,, ETF, hedging fund strategy.

Global central banks, economist, banking, financial, mortgage loan and commercial, investment banking , hedging fund managers,  markets analysts ignoring Dr. Warren Huang warning on Asset Prices Bubbles at Kula Lumpur, Sept. 2002 to Malaysia central banks Asset Based Securitization  conference,  Singapore,  Nov. 5, Nov 25, 2003 Shanghai Euro-events Asian /US/China Finance, Capital Market  conferences  and China economist annual meeting, Fudan University, Shanghai lecture Dec. 2003 on Monetary Policy impact on US/Asian/China economic outlook, capital market housing, stocks, commodities, debt asset prices bubbles  and  workshops in San Francisco Silicon Valley , US, May 8, 15 , 2004,  and Nov. 2005 in Beijin China Oil Market conference, Dr. Warren Huang (黃華南博士) Pioneer, proactive structural dynamic global inflation, macro economy, daily financial markets interest rates, currency, stock, bond, derivatives, housing, commodities, oil asset pricing and risks valuation markets fundamentals price mechanism, accurately warned on Wall Street Journal Market beat Blog Sept.19, 2007 and Mar 5, 2008 masterclass  workshop China fund world 2008, Pudong, China warning to Goldman Sach managing directors JPM, UBS and 150 China QDII/QFII fund managers that US housing price slump continue into summer 2008 drag economy into inflationary recession and US, global stock indices bear market 30- 50 % , Dow Jones test 11000, NASDAQ PLUNGE 30 % and high fliers (GOOG, PTR, AAPL) , IT, retail stocks facing 30-50 % correction, with banking, finance, housing share price plunge 50- 70 %, dollar making to new low, oil price to 140 and gas to 14, commodity prices doubled, widening bond spread and failure in MBS/CDO, Bear Stearn 30 billion dollar MBS hedge fund ,despite Fed rate cuts He also warned top QFII management on Peking Univ June 2007 International Financial Engineering Conference that China overheated housing, stock market wealth gain resulted inflation over 8.7 % will lead to China Peoples Bank credit tightening to remove excessive liquidity, Housing, stock markets follow US housing price slump, recession, bear market correction, with Shanghai A testing  2550 till summer 2008, stamp tax for stock trading cut to 1 % provide initial support to 3000 level, and plunged again to 2550-  2750  after Dow Jones plunged to 11000,commodities, oil asset pricing and risks valuation markets fundamentals price mechanism,  ,capital on the emerging bull, bear market trend through optimal long- short strategic asset allocation. portfolio management, He recommended US mutual fund (  US oil fund follow oil , gas price doubled Ultra short financial,  up 70 %, Ultra short QQQ ( Nasdaq ) UP 30 %. , and  recommended ETF: US natural gas up  100  % as natural gas soared from 6 to 12., and Japan crude oil fund up 110 %, as oil price doubled from 70 to 149. and Oppenheimer Commodities  up 90 % as, corn, soybean price doubled 
and China 's soaring inflation,  excessive wealth gain resulted excess liquidity, facing credit tightening ( despite 5 times rate hikes, raised bank deposit ratio to 14.5 % fail to remove the excessive housing wealth (up 500 %) , stock wealth gain up 600 % liquidity, money supply growth soared to 18.46 % above 16 % target, Nov. inflation up 6.9 %, However strict housing industry shown some progress, with stock index plunged 20 % into bear market correction in Dec.2007, lead to Shenzhen-Goungzhou  housing bubbles facing burst, plunged 10- 47 %, will continue into 2008.  
Workshops Goal
:  OSA  forecasts  maximize  risks adjusted housing market investment return in US/China housing markets and  stock indices, index fund, ETF investments pricing, asset allocation , housing, mortgage default risks early warning fighting  housing market recession, credit crunch, avoided global banking , housing, equities, commodities,  markets  trillion dollars asset downgrade, value loss in economic recession. 
Workshops Mission: develop, implement proactive, structural models,   simulation, forecasts years, months ahead of the emerging housing prices bubbles burst, bear/bull market trend by tracking  global central banks monetary and housing industry price control policy guidance and control in macro, financial, housing, stocks markets economy market forces demand, prices mechanism and loan and ABS assets, credit rating, prepayment, default, recovery  modeling Operations Simulation Analysis (OSA)  strategic investment,   forecasts month ahead, of the emerging national, regional, second tier housing prices slump, credit default, recession  trend, crisis impact on global currency, commodities, stock indices, ETF, REIT, MBS, equities, bond prices  investment strategy and risks hedging early warning, avoided trillion dollar housing and global equities allocation investment  and markets default  loss.

Workshops
Highlights: The what , why, how and timing of root causes, onset, recovery, early warning of equities, housing, commodities bubble burst, mortgage default crisis, tracking regulation AB for ABS, CMBS, RMBS, CDO pooled asset credit rating and REIT fund performance, default, global assets allocations, with 2008 forecast.
 
5 Day China Macroeconomic, Housing , equities bubble control  and Default Crisis Early Warning, national and regional housing prices, default simulation workshop
5 Day  US  Macroeconomic, Housing , equities bubble control  and Default Crisis Early Warning national and regional housing prices, default simulation workshop
5 Day UK Macroeconomic , housing, equities price bubble burst simulation, control, defaults early warning
national and regional housing prices, default simulation workshop
5 Day EU  Macroeconomic , housing, equities price bubble burst simulation, control, defaults early warning
national and regional housing prices, default simulation workshop
 

Dr. Warren Huang will be the master class workshop lecturer for Terrapinn Fund World China 2008 conference, Shanghai  Pudong Shangri-La hotel, March 6, 2008 to offer one day China/global ETF fund , housing REIT asset pricing, asset allocation risks early warning

He will be glad to share with  thousand proactive structural models which predicted to Euroevent China Finance, Capital market conference, Shanghai Nov. 2003 that China and US facing housing price bubble, credit tightening through 2007 and warned China top  QFII/QDII executives June , 2007, Peking university on China stocks, housing bubble burst and US mortgage default and last 20 years causes, onset, spread, recovering , early warning  China/global financial crisis, asset prices bubble bursts
He was invited to speak to China Peoples Bank, US Fed, ECB, Taiwan, Asian central bank governors risk management conferences to speak on Proactive Structural simulation of China macro-economic control, credit tightening impact on regional housing prices,  and securitization loan defaults risks.

Morning

A. Review, forecast of the latest macro economic, control credit tightening and its impact on Taiwan stocks (indices) and national, regional housing prices, banking sectors performance, default risks.
B. Strategic  cross strait Taiwan/China  equities, housing , currency speculation  wealth gain resulted excessive liquidity and capital flow
a. Taiwan NT/ China RMB price mechanism, forecast, China SWF investment strategy
b. US, global macro-economical, finance, housing, banking, commodities industrial asset pricing and  asset allocation: , Housing price slump impact on US recession and industrial sectors, financial markets performance  and Taiwan US trade and economic slowdown
C.QFII/QDII , institutional and HNW investors in China residential, commercial housing prices and CMBS, RMBS, CDO , REIT fund  ETF, performance and  allocation strategy

Afternoon

a. Taiwan stock index, China Shanghai-Shenzhen 300, A indices and component banking, finance, housing sectors, index pricing simulation, forecast China credit tightening and US mortgage crisis impact on China inflation , housing prices, wealth effect ,excess liquidity impact on stock indices index pricing
b.  Taiwan central banks   monetary policy, US NASDAQ INDEX, Shanghai stock index and Hong Kong Hang Sang blue chip, red chip, H shares stock index and prices forecasts and its impact on Taiwan stock index, second tier cities commercial, residential properties prices
c.Taiwan   real estate mortgage financing, REIT fund markets performance, default risks simulation, forecast
d. US mortgage crisis sectors performance, impact on Taiwan  asset prices and allocation strategy.
 
Who Should Attend : Central banks policy research, commercial, investment banking, residential, commercial real estate mortgage, ETF, mutual fund, REIT hedge fund , wealth management manager mortgage bond structural finance ABS, RMBS, CDO, REIT securitization managers, insurance managers, mutual fund,   managers, government regulation 

Workshop Costs/ Benefits :lecture fee plus Dr. Warren Huang round trip air fares from San Francisco  for full day workshop with unlimited attendees 
Workshop recommendation will save billion dollars in betting on the wrong direction of investment and default risks, loss, capitalize opportunities in economic slowdown, recession and asset prices bubbles burst  
Reserve by email  wh3928@yahoo.com 

Dr. Warren Huang Wall Street Journal  Real Time Economic Blog Dec. 27, 2007 Housing price bubble burst cycle                                                
This Shiller home price index does not reflect the housing bubbles burst cause ,onset, recovery and early warning
It is lagging indicator. It did not shown 300- 400 % price gain in coastal cities in last few years bubbles .and San Francisco housing prices still up 7.2 % due to high end housing price gain by all time high stock market resulted wealth. My research tracking last 30 years global housing price bubble burst cycle, indicating, it take 3 years completed the burst cycle, with housing prices plunged 30 %-50 % for high end. 20-30 % for middle range. takes two year to recover.so housing price plunged started last year, will continue through next year as I predicted on this blog 3 month ago detail can be found on www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm and www.osawh.com/fund2008.htm Comment by Warren Huang - December 27, 2007 at 1:45 pm