SWF Diversification Strategy: Proactive Structural Strategic Oil, Equities, Housing Bubble Boom, Bust Cycle Speculation Simulation Capitalize on China/Global Sovereign Fund Asset Allocation, Market Timing Trillion dollar Distressed Asset Investment Opportunities in Recession Recovery
by OSA pioneer Dr. Warren Huang, USA
Global SWF invested 41 billions in US TARP overpriced distressed assets growth stocks Citigroup, UBS,Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sach, Merrill Lynch, Blackstone at equities, housing bubbles peak 2008, by speculating over QE1, followed housing, equities bubble burst, plunged 80 % in 2009, it will not recover their loss for another 12 years until the next bubble peak.
Global equities market
institutional fund managers investors speculating on QE3 push stock to 5
year high ignoring EURO recession, China US slowdown, fiscal cliff resulted
earning decline, repeating 2008 speculating overpriced stocks on QE1, at
record top against declining earning and financial crisis
ignoring Dr. Warren Huang warned on 2007 Peking University
Int'l financial risk management conference, and
March 2008 China fund world SUMMIT .major pension fund, PE, SWF all chasing
the hot blue chip stocks at extremely overpriced level should selling
into the market peak , to avoid suffered 80 % plunge became distressed assets,
bail out by TARP
.As Apple, already start correction, plunge almost 15 %, all other hot blue chips will follow market correction
Global major fund major poor timing in assets and portfolio allocation with 80 % weight in housing, equities, and IT, biotech, drug related at market peak plunged 80 % into 2009 crash.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/Top%2010%20Mega%20Deals.jpg 6 of the top 10 mega deal PE LBO M/A deals in distressed asset state, one in default
2012-13 Global economic ,
financial market outlook
Go to our full day pension fund country, industry, company specific optimal strategic asset allocation, market timing, portfolio selection in- house workshops, providing the what, why and how, optimal timing of review of all your past multi-class allocation, portfolio selection performance, and recommend how to optimal strategic assets allocation, optimal market timing, security selection by two master hands controlling market over pricing timing on Dow Jones, indices and industrial sectors market demand
cycle, price bubble boom, bust simulation, and its impact on corporate cash flow, earning, stock prices performances for pension fund diversification to Maximize Risk Adjusted Return avoid repeating 2008 invested heavily in high growth overpriced blue chips stocks loss more than 50 % into distressed assets.
Global Sovereign Wealth Fund invested 5 trillion dollars into more than 5000 investment in ( equities, commodities, real estate, bond, derivatives )assets 2012. China ranked no 1. with 1.14 trillion Abu Dubai no.2 for 627 billion, Norweigin 611 billion. they ignored Dr. Huang warningon SWF, PE, LBO, pension, public fund managers workshops for global investment banking, fund managers, banking, securities ,regulators, traders. on 2008 China Fund World SUMMIT Pudong, China, that US facing hosing bubble burst, housing price plunge 35 % stock market crash 50 % 2009 facing recession 2008- 2010, recommended to sell oil, equities, housing , banking shares and exit LBO IPO at 2008 peak to avoid trillion dollar in the crash , Bank of America bought Merrill for 50 billion in 2008 market peak with 26.7 billion loss resulted 2.6 billion scandal suit. Lehman, JPM corporate scandals in financial crisis. It also provide optimal LBO financing ,exit timing and IPO pricing. Integrated into 35 years Taiwan, China, US government, SOE, multinationals, SME economic structural reform, operations improvement for distressed asset value recovery, value chain profit optimization, IPO exit at market peak
These global SWF invested in big blue chips companies, like UBS, Citigroup ,Blackstone, Morgan Stanley. with most of them suffered 80 % loss due to poor timing, , invested at the equities, housing bubble boom, peak, suffered huge loss following 2009 equities price plunged 50 %, housing price plunged 20 %, profit decline, some survived by selling holding assets. since 2008 US housing bubble burst resulted global financial crisis, EURO debt crisis due to housing price plunge 35 % banking , finance shares plunged more than 50 % due to heavily invested in real estate MBS, ,even after US Fed trillion dollars invested in MBS and TARP bailout.
This work introduced senor author Huang 30 years pioneering research, teaching, implementation of causes, of proactive structural dynamic Operations Simulation Analysis (OSA) of monetary credit tightening, QE1,2,3 policy impact on global ( equities, commodities, real estate, bond, derivatives )assets prices bubble boom and bust and resulted trillion dollars investment loss in global energy, IT, financial, debt crisis and capitalize trillion dollar investment opportunities in distressed asset investment in crisis.
He pioneering assets prices OSA by extending his NYU-Poly chemical Engineering Ph.D thesis on " Nonlinear Real Time Kalman Filtering with application to Chemical reactors stochastic control under model, feed composition errors and measurement noise" to numerous US , Asian refinery. petrochemical reactors yield feed forward control operations improvement
This work present Huang¡¯s pioneering innovation in development, implementation of global macro, financial, industrial, trade economic integration Operations Simulation Analysis (OSA) based oil, commodity, equities, housing, bond, derivatives asset prices bubble boom, bust cycles simulators. These nonlinear multivariate regression for proactive, structural deterministic state space dynamic response top down, bottom up neural net expert systems based fundamental price mechanism integrating last 40 years daily Wall Street Journals, financial market investors daily speculation on global central banks monetary, economic, fiscal policy and economics, business, political news events impact on asset prices bubble boom and bust,, tracking Scheinkman¡¯s lecture [M1a] on speculation, trading, bubbles causes prices exceeds fundament value.
Huang pioneered these two master hands controlling global equities prices high frequency simulators. It tracking right aster hand China, Taiwan, US , global monetary QE, policy, economic plan, fiscal bailout policy impact on daily currency, bond yield, stock indices and left master hand 20 industries demand, prices, corporate earning, stock prices performances. It provide the what, why, how , timing of last 30 years asset bubbles growth, peak, crash and crisis, recession recovery of each bubble cycle fundamental pricing. It used for maximize SWF, PE , public fund managers, retail investors, day trading thousands listed blue chips , strategic equities, oil, bond, real estate asset pricing, allocation risks adjusted return by buying distressed assets at a fraction of peak value during recession recovery and sell into the market peak rally, meeting SWF demand [S1] [S2].
HE warned on SWF, PE, LBO, public fund managers thousands workshops for global investment banking, fund managers, banking, securities ,regulators, traders. on 2008 China Fund World SUMMIT Pudong, China, that US facing hosing bubble burst, housing rice plunge 35 % stock market crash 50 % 2009 facing recession 2008- 2011, recommended to sell oil, equities, housing , banking shares and exit LBO IPO at 2008 peak to avoid trillion dollar in the crash , Lehman, JPM corporate scandals in financial crisis. It also provide optimal LBO financing ,exit timing and IPO pricing. Integrated into 35 years Taiwan, China, US government, SOE, multinationals, SME economic structural reform, operations improvement for distressed asset value recovery, value chain profit optimization, IPO exit at market peak
lectured US, China, Taiwan 15 cities 30 millions institutional investors,
thousands workshops for global investment banking, multinational oils, fund
managers, banking, securities ,regulators, traders.
Thousands articles published on Taiwan, China, US government economic , financial, daily newspapers and investment, trade journals, presented to 20 global central banks governors policy, financial risks management global SWF, PE fund SUMMIT, Petroleum Ministers conferences since 1986..
US Sept. consumer confidence plunge to 38, ISM
manufacturing purchaser index plunge to 38 and jobless rate to 6.5% and Dow
Jones plunged 40 % third quarter GDP contract 0.3 %core inflation up 2.9 %,
warned, predict by me Sept. 2007 on this blog that US housing slump continue ,
will entering double dip inflationary recession 3Q 2008 despite rate cuts,
stimulus, bail out plan and extends into deeper recession contracting by 2 % in
$Q 2008 and 1Q 2009, resulted by full impact o business, consumer spending
decline due to 6.5 % jobless and 20 % housing slump, 40 % stocks market loss
The real causes of current mortgage, credit, financial crisis and recession are due to poor financial, monetary policy decision modeling in asset pricing and risks valuation mechanism, MBS, CDO , the burst of super housing, commodities asset price bubbles caused by 7 year longest expansive excessive money supply, easy credit policy .
Global central banks, financial markets financial decision still rely on 30 year old probabilistic, statistical Capital Market Asset Pricing (CAPM) and macroeconomic modeling, ignoring asset price impact on inflation and financial, housing , MBS, CDO prices.
Predicted by Dr. Warren Huang, pioneer of Proactive Global Asset Pricing Mechanism , June 2007 , Beijing, Wall Street Journal Economic, Market Beat
Blog Aug.2007 and March 5, 2008 Pudong, China Fund World 2008 to 200 global top investment banking, fund managers that Global Housing price bubble burst, prices plunge 30 % into 2009, drag global economy into recession and stocks bond, oil, commodities, metals ,Derivative Asset Prices Bubbles Burst with 50 % Price Correction Cause Credit, Financial Crisis and Economic Recession, ( As Dow Jones, SP 500, NASDAQ drag global stock indices plunged more than 50 % into 2002 recession low ,( Dow Jones after current consolidate in 8000- 9000 will test 7000, NASDAQ test 1250, S&P test 700 low, oil price plunged 50 % from 147 to 60£¬Gas oil from1300 to 600 , corn from 800 to 350, cotton from 80 to 44 as global economy enter deep recession by year end, despite US 700 billion and ECB 2.3 trillion bail out to stabilize credit crisis
details on www.osawh.com/Fedcrisab.htm www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm www.osawh.com/commody.html www.osawh.com/centmaf.html
Dr. Warren Huang
structural dynamic global inflation, macro economy, daily financial markets
interest rates, currency, stock, bond, derivatives, housing,
commodities, oil asset pricing and risks valuation markets
fundamentals price mechanism, accurately warned
on Wall Street Journal Market beat Blog Sept.19, 2007
5, 2008 masterclass workshop China fund world 2008, Pudong,
China to Goldman Sach managing directors JPM, UBS and 150
China QDII/QFII fund managers
that US Fed aggressive rate
cuts drag dollar to 1.53-1.65 EURO, 95- 108 Yen, economic stimulus boost
consumer spending on gasoline and jet fuel summer, demand, driving gasoline ,
heating oil to 415, oil price to 121-145, commodity price
double, will peak out as US
dollar rebound follow Fed ending rate cuts cycle , can not
sub-prime crisis spreading, regional housing price slump 30-50
% and credit crisis, crunch crisis continue through 2009 drag economy into
2009 double dip
inflationary recession resulted trillion housing and stock market
loss and US, global stock indices bear market 50 % , Dow Jones
test 7000- 8000 NASDAQ PLUNGE
testing 1250- 1500 and high fliers (GOOG,
PTR, AAPL) , IT, retail stocks facing correction,
with banking, finance, housing share price plunge 70- 90 %, dollar making to new
low 90 Yen, commodity prices doubled, and bubble burst plunge
50 % in recession widening bond
, CDS spread and failure in MBS/CDO,
Bear Stearn 30 billion dollar MBS hedge fund
and government steps rescue Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac bail out, despite
Fed rate cuts
, 700 billion bailout. He also warned top global QFII management on Peking Univ June 2007 International Financial Engineering Conference
that China overheated
housing, stock market wealth gain resulted inflation over 8.7 % will lead to China Peoples Bank credit tightening to remove excessive liquidity,
Banking housing, stock markets follow US
housing price slump, recession, bear market correction, with Shanghai A testing
1800 through early 2009 until
China is suffering from housing market overheating, with 300 % gain in housing prices still up 3.5 % , FIXED investment , export growth and consumer spending still up 26 %, first 9 month GDP still up 9.9 %, CPI up 7 % despite China peoples Bank 6 rate hikes, 16 bank deposit rat hike to 17.5 %. China need to further cut its M2 money supply growth from 15 % to 12 % next year to achieve housing price cut of 30 %, CPI to 4 %, GDP to 8 % to achieve soft landing and start of bull market stock rally.
Dr. Warren Huang Wall Street Journal
Street daily Economy, Energy, Market OSA Blog :
Dr. Huang predicted on Wall Street energy, economic, market beat blog July oil price soared to 80, Dow Jones plunged to12600 and global stocks plunged 20 %
Dr. Huang accurately predicted on this web page since June 2007 and lecture to Peking University , China int'l financial
engineering risk management conference that US and global housing bubbles bubble burst, billions dollar loan mortgage
and hedging fund default betting on the wrong side of interest rates resulted global stock indices are extremely overpriced, will follow US Dow Jones, NASDAQ for 50-70% bear market correction continue into next year due to soaring oil, metal prices, inflation and continue rate hikes
into 2007 slowdown, housing bubbles sub-prime and jumbo mortgage credit crunch, default risks will give up all 2006 gain in current correction, US money supply growth already doubled to 6.2 % from last year 3.5%, due to housing, stock market wealth gain, recent US Fed 0.5 % discount rate cut and ECB pumped 400 billion dollar into the banking systems will further inflate the stocks, housing, oil, commodities asset bubble and highly inflationary and continue into second stage correction with US dollar plunge( give up all 2006 gain)
China stepped up its credit tightening to remove 1.5 trillion excess market liquidity, by raise rate 5 time, bank deposit rate 10 times to record 14.5 %, Nov. CPI still up 6.9, facing increasing tightening pressure.
Dr. Huang warned to Tianjin Nankai University Global corporate governance on Monetary, economic, fiscal policy, macroeconomic, housing industry , excessive liquidity control impact on Shanghai Shenzhen 300 index future price bubble will make 20 % correction
to 4900and housing bubble forecast for China corporate governance scandals Nov. 3, 2007
He will also offer the following workshops to the banking, finance, real estate industries.
5 day optimal long-short strategy for 130/30 ETF equities hedge fund asset allocation and portfolio selections over 40 countries
Full day China/ Global Macro-economic control, credit tightening housing control REITequities bubble control and Default Crisis Early Warning
Full day BRIC ETF index price performance, country risks, oil, banking, IT equities bubble control, Default Cris
5 Day BRIC ETF index price performance, country risks, oil, banking, IT equities bubble control, Default Crisis workshops
5 Day China Macroeconomic, Housing , equities bubble control and Default Crisis Early Warning
5 Day US Macroeconomic, Housing , equities bubble control and Default Crisis Early Warning
5 Day UK Macroeconomic, Housing , equities bubble control and Default Crisis Early Warning(full day strategic wealth fund asset allocation workshop ) Chinese
Mortgage Bond Crisis Early Warning Mortgage Default Risks Early Warning Workshops
by Dr. Warren Huang Pioneer Proactive Asset
chief editor www.OSAGlobalstrategicmanagement.com/www.osawh.com
Proactive Structural Global Asset Pricing Strategic Decision Analysis tool provide global top government officials and SWF asset allocation managers maximize risk adjusted return in their global equities, commodities, real estate , currencies investment in fight global financial crisis and global economic boom and bust cycles
Development, implement thousands proprietary Proactive Structural Asset Pricing Strategic global economic systems( macro, financial, industrial, trade ) integration and capital markets Operations Simulations Analysis (OSA) Decision Analysis model simulators provide global top government officials and SWF asset allocation managers reliable demand and prices market forces mechanism achieve maximize risks adjusted return
Pioneered by Dr. Warren Huang two master hands controlling major global economy and financial markets prices , forecasts years, month ahead of the emerging market trend, maximize risk adjusted return in their global equities, commodities, real estate investment
These simulators have been tracking , forecasting last 20 years daily global central banks monetary, fiscal, economic, WTO trade policy impact on daily macroeconomic inflation control, interest rates, currency, commodities prices, 20 sectors (real estate housing, energy, finance, manufacturing ) upstream/downstream products demand, prices market forces mechanism, corporate earning, stocks , futures prices.
It has been able to provide the what, why, how and timing of global equities, commodities, real estate, currency asset pricing and associated credit default, market crash volatility risks achieving maximized risks adjusted return in last 20 years global currency, financial, energy and asset bubbles burst crisis for China, US, Taiwan, Asian 30 millions HNW and institutional investors.
These simulators will be the necessary daily strategic decision tools for global SWF asset managers in asset allocation and risks management.
Dr. Huang accurately predicted on this web page since June 2007 and lecture to Peking University , China int'l financial engineering risk management conference that US and global housing bubbles bubble burst, billions dollar loan mortgage
and hedging fund default betting on the wrong side of interest rates resulted global stock indices are extremely overpriced, will follow US Dow Jones, NASDAQ for 50 % correction due to soaring oil, metal prices, inflation and continue rate hikes into 2007 slowdown, housing bubbles sub-prime and jumbo mortgage credit crunch, default risks will give up all 2006 gain
in current correction, US money supply growth already doubled to 6.2 % from last year 3.5%, due to housing, stock market wealth gain, recent US Fed 425 discount rate cut and ECB pumped2.3 trillion dollar into the banking systems will not be abe to support the recession resulted bear market correction
Review of current global SWF Investments:
In addition to Norway ($300 billion), Singapore ($300 billion), Kuwait ($200 billion) and Abu Dhabi ($500 billion to $600 billion). Korea, United Arab Emirates, Brunei, Malaysia, Taiwan, Canada and Chile invested total 1.5 trillion US dollars in Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF), China is creating a new $200-billion to $300-billion "sovereign wealth fund" to diversify its foreign holdings away from U.S.-dollar bond and to make large-scale equity investments in companies overseas. The money will come from the more than $1.33 trillion currently holds in reserves, China has made its first investment from the fund: a $3-billion non-voting investment in 10 % of Blackstone Group with recent IPO share price between 28-36.
China's diversify its vast holdings through
China Foreign Exchange Investment Co. will provide a fresh supply of cash for
the purchase of foreign assets ( equities, real estate, commodities ) instead of
U.S. bond which currently account for 99.9 percent of China's holdings
All SWF investing in global financial assets markets looking for better investment return will be facing daily general macro , industrial economic systemic risks like country currency, inflationary, interest rates, equities, commodities price shock risks and specific corporate business margins operations risks, which may causes trillion dollar NPL or investment loss in global currency, financial, energy and asset bubble burst crisis.
What , why , how and timing of Global/ China SWF Asset Allocation Risks and Return Operations Simulations Analysis
Proactive Structural Asset Pricing Strategic global economy and capital markets Operations Simulations Analysis (OSA) Decision Analysis model simulators provide global top government officials and SWF asset allocation managers reliable demand and prices market forces mechanism of major global economy and financial markets prices , forecasts years, month ahead of the emerging macro and industrial economic control, capital market trend, maximize risk adjusted return in their global equities, commodities, real estate investment
SWF investment return and risks = F ( commodities prices/equities corporate profit margin, country currency risks, Macroeconomics , financial markets investors sentiment risks)
Proactive decisions for two master hands controlling, tracking forecast years, months ahead of the emerging market trend of global equities, commodities, currency prices, risks
tracking forecast last 20 years 100 countries currency for Taiwan 300, 000 import/export managers
Proactive decisions for two master hands controlling orecast years, months ahead of the emerging market trend of global oil, energy, commodity banking, finance,, real estate housing prices, defaults risks tracking and forecast month last 20 years daily Asian, US, European oil, energy, commodities downstream cash, futures, housing, IT asset prices bubbles in global , banking, finance, energy crisis for patented in US and supporting Oil & Gas Journal, Hydrocarbon Processing 80 countries 1600 multinationals executives www.osawh.com/hp2001h.html on Advanced control and information systems handbook 1991-2005 and Taiwan 300,000 import/export commodity procurement strategy
Proactive decisions for two master hands controlling global macroeconomic control, stock indices
investor sentiments and thousands listed stocks, 40 countries ADR , IPO prices
offered thousands executives investment risk management workshops for millions US, Asian,
European CEO, senior executives and US, China, Taiwan 15 cities 30 million TV, radio investors tracking, forecasted years, month ahead of global macroeconomic control, dailystock, bond, commodities, futures prices
SWF investments asset allocation risks management OSA
Dr. Warren Huang accurately predicted BX plunge below 27, test new low, on July 6, this page, It did plunged below 27.3 on July 19 and test 23 on Sept 4..
China 3 billion investment in US Blackstone Group (BX): despite BX enjoyed US recent real estate, communication, retail boom, its performance has been peaking out . IPO soared from 28 to 36, it will be testing below 20 due to US facing inflationary slowdown dragging BX major real estate, banking finance ( subprime and falling housing demand and prices) and weakening retail investments, sharp competitions in its communications group, and peaking out in energy commodity performance), it plunged to 7.5 in Nov. 2008
China SWF invested 5 billion USD in Morgan Stanley Dec. 2007 with nonvoting right, two year convertible stocks reference price 49- 58. after Morgan announce loss 3.6 billion due to mortgage default loss, stock price plunged to 8.
Dr. Huang accurately predict on Wall Street Journal Market Beat Blog, Sept. 14 that US investment banks facing tough fight against US housing slump mortgagee default continue into 2008 summer, will give up all its gain in speculate on Fed rate cuts. and making new low, all stock prices will be down 30- 50 % , with over 50 % for those under loss.(Merril Lynch, Citi, MS)
It is too early to invest in any US banking, finance, housing stocks, as the worse of housing slump is not over,
These stocks prices continue follow US housing price slump, with widening loss in write off loss.
China investments still subject to currency exchange loss due to RMB appreciation
He accurately predicted Aug 16, US sub-prime crisiswill spread into credit, financial crisis, recession into 2009
4 millions global investors visited Dr. Warren Huang www.osawh.com website daily proactive asset allocation and risks early warning tracking forecasts daily global real estate, energy, commodity, equities prices performance.
He lectured thousands QFII executives, multinational oil, banking, finance executives in Beijin, Singapore, Shanghai, San Francisco, 2003-2004 warning US /China housing, equities commodities bubble and interest rates hikes 2004-2007..
He warned again to hundred US,. global oil CEO, securities companies VP in Beijing on China natural gas and oil market investment conferences Feb, Nov 2005 that oil price will be soared from 45 to 78, metals, commodities prices soared to new high and China's A share enjoyed bull market rally from 1000 to 6200 in 2006- 2007 and plunged to 2000 in 2008
It is premature to jump in any speculation of global real estate mortgage, banking, finance investment. The current US sub-prime mortgage default will be spread into jumbo mortgage as interest rate already jump from 6.5 % to 9 %, housing recession will extend into summer 2008 and UK, EU
Barclays merger investment and Bank of America 2 billion investment in Countrywide will facing downside risks .
China housing, equities twin bubble facing slowdown, burst next year
Dr. Warren Huang Wall Street Journal Real Time Economic Blog Dec. 29, 2007
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