The What, Why, How and When in central banking Optimal Predictive Monetary Policy: Integrated Proactive Structural Dynamic Simulation of US Fed/Russian/E. Europe Central Banks Monetary Policy Impact on Assets (Stocks, Bond, Housing, Commodity) Prices Bubbles in integration into EMU
Macro economic Control Impact on  Capital markets Asset Prices market forces mechanism and Stress Testing Early Warning System achieve Sustainable Growth and Prices Stability
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Russia Financial Crisis, Recovery wealth effect, wealth management, risks hedging simulation
              By Dr. Warren Huang        wh3928@yahoo.com           (Right master hand)

E. European countries housing bubble burst due to loan tie into S. France facing rising interest rate, currency appreciation credit tightening due to
stock markets correction.

Dr. Huang pioneered Nobel prize dream : two master hands controlling last 20 years global economy, beat daily financial market asset prices, accurately predicted 3 month ahead of 1980, 1990, 2001 global recession, stock market crash, 1992 European, 1994 China, 1997 Asian and 1998 Russian currency crisis , LTCM and current US bubble burst recovery , speak to China, Taiwan, 15 cities TV, radio, banking, finance executives, 30 million visitors and millions global government, banking, finance, corporate CEO, executives visited this website tracking the results .
Presented to  Stockholm school economic, econometric conference, Stockholm, Sweden Dec. 10 , 1998 ,Post EURO banking, Finance Strategy  conference by JP Morgan, Nov. 16, 1998 Rome Italy  on post EURO Banking, Finance Integration Strategy and China Peoples Bank Governor sponsored Asian Central bank governors Policy conference, May 15, 1999, Macao and  European Financial Management Conference as, Chairman of risks in the int'l context, Barcelona, Spain, June 2, 1999 and Royal Statistical Society, on risk management conference, London, UK, July 14, 1999 Global Finance Conference, Apr 9, 2001, Los Angeles,  APEC  Finance Conference, July 25-26,2001,  Bangkok,   Global Finance Conference,  May 27-28, 2002, Global Corporate Governance Conference Beijin, China; Asian Business Forum on Asset Backed Securitization conference Kuala Lumpur, Sept. 30, 2002 to European, Asian Central banks, banking, securities companies and Shanghai Jiaotung University's Pan Pacific Business Conference, May 2003
spoke to Euro-events  Asian finance, capital markets conference Nov. 5, 2003, China, finance, capital market conference, Nov. 25, 2003, Shanghai, Nov. 27, Beijin, 2003  and China third economic society annual meeting, Beijin China economic research center at Fudan university, Dec. 20, 2003

Book Dr. Warren Huang's  China/US credit tightening impact on global recovery, capital market asset prices, risk  hedging 2004 second half  global investment strategy workshops (  June Taipei, Shanghai, Beijin, Hong Kong tour )getting ahead of the emerging trend, capitalize on China credit tightening, US rate hike impact on global economy and capital markets, while minimize credit, markets, operational risks.
=========Dr. Warren Huang  North American China-US  TV radio interview, investment seminar Lecture =====
Dr. Huang had half hour interview by Silicon Valley Financial TV, Radio station to speak on China/US credit tightening impact on economy and high tech/biotech corporate performance, stock prices, Euro, E. European, Russia, China  ADR asset allocation and risk management. recommended Russian, China ADR shares, rebound 20 %, facing correction again.
Global Chinese Finance Forum San Francisco Silicon Valley High Tech/Biotech Investment Seminar 2004
An excellent opportunity to meet with Dr. Warren Huang to discuss “Market Trend and Outlook for Chinese Theme Stocks in US” and CEOs from five growing public companies to learn their current projects and growth potentials.
Date: May 8, 2004 (Saturday)        Time: 9:30-3:10pm  Venue: Crown Plaza Hotel, 777 Bellew Drive, Milpitas Format: Presentation in Chinese and English, Booths, Q&A, Lunch  

Structural, dynamic Predictive Global Central Banks Monetary Policy for Sustainable Growth and Asset Prices Stability Guidance and Control:  Policy Impact Simulation  Workshops
Monetary,  Economic, Fiscal Policy, WTO  impact on Global  Economic, Business cycles, Asset, Wealth , Prices  bubbles burst, oil, energy , Currency crisis, recession FEED FORWARD ( predicted 3-6 month ahead) SUSTAINABLE GROWTH AND ASSET PRICES STABILITY CONTROL Financial Markets Return, Asset Allocation, Strategic Risks OSA (RIGHT  HAND )  
Structural, Dynamics simulation of Monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on last 20 years global macro economic, business cycles, capital market asset prices, bubbles , financial crisis, boom and busts achieving growth and prices stability control predicted 1- 3 month ahead,  Global financial crisis since 1980 and 2000 high tech bubble burst and 2001-2003 global market crash and recovery :
Dr. Warren Huang HAS BEEN INVITED TO SPEAK TO 24 GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS GOVERNORS  CONFERENCE ( FRB, ECB, China Peoples Bank, Taiwan, Japan, Korea, Thailand, Asian ) since 1998 warned that Global high tech bubble burst will plunge 50-70 % and facing recession. He offered thousands lectures accurately predicted China Peoples Banks monetary policy impact on 1994-96 macro-economic control-soft landing on China daily stock markets to China 15 cities 30 million investors, national newspapers during 1994-1998 in China and again predicted China excessive money supply, housing bubble facing tightening Mar. 2003 Shanghai workshops
 
Thousands   causes and effect structural, dynamic proven predictive OSA simulators beat  daily money, capital, insurance, property markets ( published thousands articles, 30 million copies ( over 10 million readers ) for reliable tracking, forecasts 3 month ahead of last 20 years  central banks monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on global/China economy, daily capital market asset prices, bubble early warning, tailor to QFII/QDII  investment needs.
Dr. Huang accurately  predicted  last 20 years daily US interest rate, commodities, gold, oil prices daily capital market prices 4 month ahead and again at  Shanghai University of Finance, Economics, Oct. 25,  Euro-event  Singapore, Nov. 5,  2003 Asian Finance, capital market conference on  Monetary policy impact on Asian and China  economic outlook, asset prices, warned  that any free float of RMB will  lead to China currency crisis and US runaway inflation and  repeat past global financial crisis, bubble burst. Only Dr. Huang's two master hands ( interest rate and trade, economic policy ) market forces price mechanism guide through RMB gradual appreciation is the best approach, regardless peg to the dollar or a basket of currency. and  recommended to  buy Russia oils,  China A, B ADR  oil, petroch( PTR, SNP, CEO), steel, aluminum share and Hong Kong H shares due to soaring Russia China, demand, profits, DFI inflow, while sell overheated US,  Taiwan,  Singapore, Korea, Japan, German  IT shares, due to price cutting. buy with caution global banking, finance stocks due to low interest rate, soaring housing, stock markets facing bubble burst.   and continue recommendation on China shares  on China finance, capital market conference  Shanghai, Nov. 25 ,  Beijin, Nov. 27  2003, but warned China  stocks bubble on China economic society annual meeting, Fudan Univeristy, Dec. 20, 2003 bubbles in China ADR share up 50 % -80 % after Dr. Huang Nov. 5 recommendation   due to  hurt by China Peoples Bank credit tightening in steel, cement, auto, housing will facing 20 % correction , China life IPO will give up most of its gain  US rate hike by May 2004, ,US dollar stabilize ,oil prices traded 28-36, gold price peaking out , traded 380-430  as confirmed by China People's bank Jan 5 to cut the money supply growth from 2003's 18 % to 14- 15 % this year , China leave RMB unchange and Greenspan 5 rate hikes  will face slowdown by year end ,
He also accurately predicted rising interest rate, and huge trade surplus driving EURO to 1.38 new high, cutting EURO export, growth, profits, stocks  and trade surplus, eventually repeating 1991, forcing EURO to plunge.  ( ECB will leave rate unchange to take the pressure of EURO) excessive US  rate, tax cuts led to 23 year high commodity prices, soaring housing, stock prices , will raise interest rate by May, 2004, China will continue credit tightening, as confirmed by China People's bank Jan 5 to cut the money supply growth from 2003's 14 % to 10- 11 % this year and Greenspan indicated the need for rate hike , EURO can not raise rate  to take pressure off EURO

USA    Australia  Asian  Canada  China   Hong Kong   Taiwan    Thailand   Japan  S. Korea   Singapore  Malaysia  Phillipines  Indonesia   Viet-Nan   India  UK/EURO  Russia/E. Europe    Mexico   Argentina  Brazil

 US and global markets   global capital markets investment strategic simulation tailored to your need . please email wh3928@yahoo.com for reservation
Russia East European Economy, Finance, Financial Crisis  and Recovery Simulation/Forecasts

• Russian central bank   Monetary Policy on   Russian and E. European  countries inflation, GNP and economic indicators (growth and price stability)
  Asian and Russian Financial crisis, recovery 1998-2000 simulation
  Asian turmoil and strong dollar led falling oil energy and commodities prices with 8 % inflation, Tighten money supply to support the Rube due to Asian Turmoil resulted  declining  oil income  to pay for foreign debt, trade and current account surplus  forced the interest rate tripled to 150 % . in summer  1998. Forced Russian central bank  to float the Ruble to 9.5  to ease short term debt, and Yeltsin fired prime minister caused credit default, Ruble broke 9.5 to 20. The high inflation further pushed Rube to 30 The Russia Moscow stock index    rebounded from 160 to 403 benefited by falling  interest rates from 150 %peak to 80 %, However after the interest rate raised to 200 % to stabilize the ruble  fighting 50 % inflation due to plunging currency ( soared from 20 to 8.5) took the stock index plunged to 170 again.  The market already rebound to 255 after the government announced increase money supply, cut interest rate to 100 %,  Russia stock market was badly hurt by the falling ruble, rising interest rate and   LTCM  failure resulted credit squeez. Entering 1999, Ruble has support at 20-25 due to soaring trade surplus  and high level of interest at 100 % due to soaring oil prices income, and dry up of domestic demand (import)   plunging ruble lead to soaring export and trade surplus to stabilize  it's currency at 30.6 . led to  2003  interest rate cut to 16 % boost the stock index to   new high 540  will be traded between  500  and 600
  Russia  2004 economy benefits by soaring oil prices, income in global  recovery .
  Russia benefited by Asian recovery, Soaring China, US, EURO demand, and oil prices soaring to 55, lead to quadruple in oil income and  trade surplus of 80 billion and current account surplus of  48 billion in 2004.   However inflation still running at 11 % (down from peak 50 %) due  to Ruble depreciation to 29 . and also hurting by soaring import raw material prices.
  Russia enjoyed 6.4 % GDP growth and  6 % increase in industrial production in  Nov  2004
  Russia economy  was  slowdown by falling oil prices in the second half 2001   from 37 to 16 due to US, EURO interest rate hike resulted economic recession Russian GDP plunged from 7 % to 4 %, industrial production from 8 % to 2 %
• Russia economy benefited by global  economic recovery and soaring oil prices in 2002-2004
  Oil prices soared from 16 to 50   boosted Russian industrial production and export, trade and current surplus,69 and 38 billion helped Russian to repay all its debt and will support it's Ruble.  ( already rebound to 28 from 32 However, inflation still at 11 % due to strong domestics demand and soaring import prices.
• Rubble currency : is benefited by soaring oil prices resulted  huge trade surplus, current account, hurt by high inflation, at 10 %, and will be hurt by falling oil prices. it will be traded between 27- 30
  Moscow stock index soared 2000 %  from 350 to 8000 during 2001 --2003due to soaring oil prices and continued 7 % GDP growth will be traded  7500- 8900 due to peaking out of oil  prices
   Russia ADR shares prices OSA,  asset bubble earning warning,

  Name	Symbols	outlook.  early warning	trading range
  Yukos	YUKOY	STRONG GLOBAL DEMAND, oil prices swing	16
  LUKOIL	LUKOY	STRONG GLOBAL DEMAND, oil prices swing	120-140

  E. European Economy, Finance, Capital Markets Simulation

• Hungary is benefited by Russia and Asian, US, EURO recovery, increased EURO, US demand,    enjoyed 4  % GNP, hurt by  soaring oil prices, inflation at 5.6  due to strong currency, interest rate at 9.5 %, lead to widening trade deficit at 2.5 billion and current account deficit and currency supported by high interest rate  of 9 %
  Stock index benefited by global economic recovery,   corporate profits and   industrial production, GDP, benefited by falling interest rate,  However is hurting by rising oil and raw material import cost,    will  be  traded between 12500 and 15000

   Hungary  ADR shares prices OSA,  asset bubble earning warning,

  Name	Symbols	outlook.  early warning	trading range
  OTP Bank	OTPIY	STRONG LOAN  DEMAND,	25- 30
  Tiszai	TZVKYP	STRONG GLOBAL DEMAND, RISING OIL COST	18- 22

• Poland  is benefited by Russia and Asian, EURO, US recovery, increased EURO, US demand, industrial production up 11 %  interest rate at 6.60 %,suffered by soaring oil, commodity prices inflation up 4.5 % cut GDP to 4.8 % lead to widening 5 billion  trade deficit and current account deficit and  currency  firm at   3.1- 3.34
  Stock index  benefited by lower interest rate, global recovery , However is hurting by rising oil and raw material import cost, and     traded between 24500- 26500
  Poland ADR shares prices OSA,  asset bubble earning warning,

  Name	Symbols	outlook.  early warning	PSKOY	DEMAND AND COST UP	trading range
  Bank Millenium	BBIGYP	STRONG  DEMAND,	15 - 19
  BANK Polska	PKSKGS	STRONG DEMAND,	28- 39

  Polski Koncern

  17 - 19

   Czech Rep. is benefited by Russia and EURO, US, Asian, recovery, increased EURO, US demand,  falling interest rate at  2.7%, enjoyed  3.6 % GNP, hurt by  soaring oil prices lead to 1.3 billion widening trade deficit and current account deficit and falling currency  at  21- 23   Kron  / US$,
  Stock index benefited by low  interest rate, global recovery.  However is hurting by rising oil and raw material import cost,  ,  correction traded between  800-- 1000
  Czech ADR shares prices OSA,  asset bubble earning warning,

  Name	Symbols	outlook.  early warning	trading range
  Komercni Bank	KBANYP	increased loan demand	35- 49

  Dr. Warren Huang accurately predicted US Fed and ECB will raise fund rate in June 1999 due to soaring stocks, properties, oil prices,   and warned Jan. 2000 that US high tech stocks bubble burst, plunge 90 % will lead to US , EURO recession,which will take US , EURO stocks and Asian stock prices into minimum 40-70 % correction,
  These deterministic, dynamic simulation of last 20 years global asset prices, and economy boom and bust of the asset bubble vicious cycle of excessive monetary policy, low interest rate induced sustained long term bull markets stocks prices gain caused consumer and business spending in real estate properties pushed soaring housing prices and rent. And deficit spending (negative saving) in stock markets, pushed the stock s even higher, until abrupt reverse of consumer and investor confidence --the bubble burst- plunge of stocks and properties prices as it happened in US, Japan, Taiwan in 1980, 1987, 1990, energy crisis, EURO 1992 currency crisis, 1994 China runaway inflation, 1995 Mexico crisis, 1997-98 ASEAN, Japan, Korea, Russia, Brazil currency crisis, all caused by overpriced stock prices due to excess monetary policy and high GDP growth
   

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