US Sept. consumer confidence plunge to 38, ISM manufacturing purchaser index plunge to 43 and jobless rate to 6.1 % and Dow Jones plunged 40  % third quarter GDP contract 0.3 %core inflation up 2.9 %, warned, predict by me Sept. 2007 on this blog that US  housing slump continue , will entering double dip inflationary recession 3Q 2008 despite rate cuts, stimulus, bail out plan and extends into deeper recession contracting by 2 % in $Q 2008 and 1Q 2009,  resulted by  full impact o business, consumer spending decline due to 6.5 % jobless and 20 % housing slump, 40 % stocks market loss
  The real causes of current mortgage, credit, financial crisis and recession are due to poor financial, monetary policy decision modeling in asset pricing and  risks valuation mechanism, MBS, CDO , the burst of super housing, commodities asset price bubbles caused by 7 year longest expansive excessive money supply, easy credit policy . The crisis will repeat if still using current asset prices, risk valuation financial decision models, betting on the wrong side of investment of another 5 year excessive rate cuts resulted expansion 
Global central banks, financial markets financial decision still rely on 30 year old probabilistic, statistical Capital Market Asset Pricing (CAPM) and macroeconomic modeling, ignoring asset price impact on inflation and financial, housing , MBS, CDO prices.
Predicted by Dr. Warren Huang, pioneer of Proactive Global Asset Pricing Mechanism , June 2007 , Beijing, Wall Street Journal Economic, Market Beat
 Blog Aug.2007   and March 5, 2008 Pudong, China Fund World 2008 to 200 global top investment banking, fund managers that Global Housing price bubble burst, prices plunge 30 % into 2009, drag  global economy into recession and stocks bond, oil,  commodities, metals ,Derivative Asset Prices Bubbles Burst with 50 % Price Correction Cause Credit, Financial Crisis and Economic Recession, ( As Dow Jones, SP 500, NASDAQ drag global stock indices plunged more than 50 % into 2002 recession low ,( Dow Jones  after current consolidate in 8000- 9000 will test 7000, NASDAQ test 1250, S&P test 700 low, oil price plunged 50 % from 147 to 70¡AGas oil from1300 to 700 , corn  from 800 to 350, cotton from 80 to 44 as global economy  enter deep recession by year  end, despite US 700 billion  and ECB 2.3 trillion bail out to stabilize credit crisis

details on www.osawh.com/Fedcrisab.htm  www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm www.osawh.com/commody.html www.osawh.com/centmaf.html

 Dr. Warren Huang (黃華南博士) Pioneer, proactive structural dynamic global inflation, macro economy, daily financial markets interest rates, currency, stock, bond, derivatives, housing, commodities, oil asset pricing and risks valuation markets fundamentals price mechanism, accurately warned on Wall Street Journal Market beat Blog Sept.19, 2007 and Mar 5, 2008 masterclass  workshop China fund world 2008, Pudong, China  to Goldman Sach managing directors JPM, UBS and 150 China QDII/QFII fund managers that  US Fed aggressive rate cuts drag dollar to 1.53-1.65 EURO, 95- 108 Yen, economic stimulus boost consumer spending on gasoline and jet fuel summer, demand, driving gasoline , heating oil to 415, oil price to 121-145, commodity price double, will peak out as US dollar rebound follow Fed ending rate cuts cycle , can not stop sub-prime crisis spreading, regional  housing price slump 30-50 %  and credit crisis, crunch crisis continue through  2009 drag economy into 2009 double dip  inflationary recession resulted trillion housing and stock market loss and US, global stock indices bear market  50 % , Dow Jones test  7000- 8000  NASDAQ PLUNGE testing  1250- 1500 and high fliers (GOOG, PTR, AAPL) , IT, retail stocks facing  correction,    with banking, finance, housing share price plunge 70- 90   %, dollar making to new low 90 Yen,   commodity prices doubled,  and bubble burst plunge 50 % in recession widening bond , CDS spread and failure in MBS/CDO, Bear Stearn 30 billion dollar MBS hedge fund and government steps rescue Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac bail out,  despite Fed rate cuts . He also warned top global QFII management on Peking  Univ June 2007 International Financial Engineering Conference that China overheated housing, stock market wealth gain resulted inflation over 8.7 % will lead to China Peoples Bank credit tightening to remove excessive liquidity, Banking housing, stock markets follow US housing price slump, recession, bear market correction, with Shanghai A testing  1800  through  early 2009  until economy softlanding
China is suffering from housing market overheating, with 300 % gain in housing prices still  up 3.5 % , FIXED investment , export growth and consumer spending still up 26 %, first 9 month GDP still up 9.9 %, CPI up 7 % despite  China peoples Bank 6  rate hikes, 16 bank deposit rat hike to 17.5 %. China need to further cut its M2 money supply growth  from 15 % to 12 % next year to achieve housing price cut of 30 %, CPI to 4 %, GDP to 8 % to achieve soft landing and start of bull market stock rally.

 Do not miss our :
2008 China/US housing prices bubbles burst impact on inflationary slowdown, stock markets outlook
Dr. Warren Huang  was the full day master class workshop lecturer for Terrapinn Fund World China 2008 ,conference, Shanghai  Pudong Shangri-La hotel, March 6 offer Proactive structural China/global asset pricing, credit tightening, recession impact on BRIC,Optimal  1xx/xx  long-short hedging, asset allocation strategy
Reservation, for Shanghai, Beijing, Hong Kong, Taipei, San Francisco  in-house Strategic Housing Investment, default risks early warning workshops    wh3928@yahoo.com
 5 day optimal long-short strategy for 1xx/xx  ETF equities hedge  fund asset allocation and portfolio selections 
Full day China/ Asian  ( China, India, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore, Vietnam ) Macro-economic control, credit tightening housing control REITequities bubble control , Default Crisis Early Warning National , regional housing prices   forecast workshops
Full day  BRIC  ETF index price performance, country risks, oil, banking, IT equities bubble control, Default Crisis regional housing prices   forecast workshops
Full day Taiwan inflation control, country risks, housing, stocks  prices bubble burst, default crisis early warning workshop
5 Day  BRIC   ETF index price performance, country risks, oil, banking, IT equities bubble control, Default Crisis regional housing prices   forecast workshops
5 Day China /Asian  (  India, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore, Vietnam ) Macroeconomic, Housing , equities bubble control  and Default Crisis Early Warning , National , regional housing prices and defaults forecast workshops
5 Day  US  Macroeconomic, Housing , equities bubble control  and Default Crisis Early Warning  National , regional housing prices and defaults forecast workshops
5 Day UK  Macroeconomic, Housing , equities bubble control  and Default Crisis Early Warning  National , regional housing prices and defaults forecast workshops
5 Day Taiwan  housing bubble   control  and Default Crisis Early Warning  National , regional housing prices and defaults forecast workshops5 Day China Macroeconomic, Housing , equities bubble control  and Credit Default Crisis Early Warning
5 Day  US  Macroeconomic, Housing , equities bubble control  and  Credit Default Crisis Early Warning the causes, onset, recovery, early warning of mortgage default , credit crises
5 Day UK  Macroeconomic, Housing , equities bubble control  and Default Crisis Early Warning 

Comment by  Dr. Warren Huang on Wall Street Journal Real Time Economic Blog Aug. 30, 2010
With personal income trailing spending, sluggish stock market and export growth, US consumer spending rebound is not sustainable!
US economy will getting worse as continued housing market slump, at record jobless rate despite record low interest rate,  any drive to prove lower interest rates will not help and housing rebound and prevent economic double dip recession , July consumer spending surge is not sustainable, as we are facing China credit tightening economic cooloff from GDP of 11 % to 8 % by year end and Asian countries India, Korea, Australia rate hike fight housing prices bubbles will cut our export growth.. Euro are debt crisis will drag GDP to 1 %, Japan facing near recession, with stimulus facing slowdown ahead.
US second GDP only grow 1.6% even with Fed's aggressive MBS buy back, housing, auto incentive program We will expect the second half GDP much below 1 % with all these stimulus program removed since April.
In the mean time we are facing trilemma situation with record personal, business, government debt and excessive liquidity all ready endange rcredit rating and inflation fear
That is why US stock bullish index plunged from 30 to 21 ( close to 2009 March low of 19 , Dow Jones index will test 9000- 9900 ahead

details on www.osawh.com/recession.html www.osawh.com/centmaf.html   www.osawh.com/dowwp.htmComment by Warren Huang -Wall Street Journal Market Beat Blog  November 13, 2008 at 1:10 pm

Comment by Warren Huang -Wall Street Journal market beat blog  and Yahoo finance July 19, 2008 at 8:17 pm
Government unprecedented and coordinated  steps ( seizure IndyMac, Paulson Fannie, Fredie rescue plan, SEC restriction on naked short) did temporarily stabilized  stock market;, Dow Jones rebounded from 10900 to 11500, NASDAQ from 2167 to 2305 lead by banks stock 30 % rebound( WFC, MER, MS, despite huge loss and writedown and banking stock index market bull attempted to break the bear trend, start bullish again, the financial market turbulence and restore some investors confidence.
But  all these steps can not, did not  remove the root causes of financial crisis, Bernanke economic difficulties : housing market slump, soaring job cut s, inflation and financial market strain will be with us until these situation improves.
Financial market price are driving by market economy price mechanism, which fully integrated into macro- financial industrial economy, banking, financial, housing stock price slump are driven by the burst of super housing price bubble continued correction to its affordable level, led to mounting job cuts consumer confidence slump 1980 level, soaring inflation drive up to inflationary recession.
It  will be dangerous to assume that all the crisis will be over by these step repeating April bull run, that is the same situation in G7 intervention on currency never stop the currency crisis which are driven by interest rate spread, and trade balance,  banking financial stock price are driven by two master hands : the macro economic and the housing, industry health.
details on www.osawh.com/riskm.html  www.osawh.com/centmaf.html, www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm  www.osawh.com/OSAmarkettoday.html www.osawh.com/currency.html
Comment by Warren Huang -on Wall Street Journal Real Time Economic Paulson Financial Regulation Blog  March 31, 2008 at 11:53 pm

Dr. Warren Huang will be risk management panelist and  full day master class workshop lecturer for  Terrapinn China Fund World
 2008  conference, Shanghai  Pudong Shangri-La hotel, March 6 offer Proactive structural China/global asset pricing,
 2008 credit tightening, recession impact on BRIC,Optimal  1x0/x0  long-short hedging, asset allocation strategy 

2008 China/US housing prices bubbles burst impact on inflationary slowdown, stock markets outlook
Dr. Warren Huang accurately warned US heading for recession summer 2008 , oil go to 100, US, global stocks
give up all their gain since 2006  despite rate cuts on Wall Street Journal Market beat Blog Sept. 19, 2007

Thousands proactive structural dynamic strategic Basel II market, credit, operational, interest rate risks early warning tracking last 20 years global financial, energy and asset bubble burst crisis.
are updated by  www.osaglobalstrategicmanagement.com/Baselrisk.html   and in-house workshops

======================================================
  China Energy Strategy:  Strategic China Energy trade Finance, Investment Strategy conference and Strategic Proactive Corporate Governance, Enterprises Energy Risks Management workshop
 
Don't Miss This lectures opportunities in China/global oils strategic corporate governance, enterprises risk management conference Nov. 17-18 Beijing, China World Hotel for China/Global oil upstream/downstream, banking, finance,  CEO ,CFO, board members, auditing and management teams, share holders ,investment, supply chain senior executives  proactive decision analysis training provide the latest forecast of global/China oil upstream/downstream future, derivative prices, investment strategy.  
  "Proactive Strategic Corporate Governance and Enterprise Risk Management"  
 * Proactive structural models tracking, simulation of China/global oil, gas upstream/downstream futures, derivatives prices mechanism,  cost, financial, derivatives accounting.
* Proactive structural models tracking  daily corporate operations and governance performance ,scandals risks early warning and training board members, management team, auditing teams meeting Sarbanes- Oxley compliances
* Global strategic investment, joint ventures, M/A,  supply chain, Basel  II  global financial, energy  crisis, credit, market risks simulation, early warning, 
* Profit, market share, risks as goal, mission, performance  oriented strategic governance, risks OSA (Operations Simulation Analysis) team( CEO, CFO, board) and execution teams( managers) maximize corporate operations and governance transparency performances.
* Case studies: US Mobil, Enron, Taiwan Chinese, China Aviation Oils
Dr. Warren Huang     BIO Dr. Huang has 30 years experience in  development, implementation  of proactive strategic structural simulators tracking for Mobil, Phillips Petroleum,  SINOPEC , Asian Consulting.   He predicted  last 20 years emerging market trend of global  oil, gas upstream/downstream futures, derivatives , listed stock prices,  financial, energy crisis, corporate  scandals early warning for investment, supply  chain, marketing strategy for multinationals, SOE
board members, executives training . He spoke to global central banks governors, risk management conferences wrote 35 articles for US  Oil & Gas Journal,Hydrocarbon Processing , Advanced Process  Control , Information System Handbook 1991-2005. Millions global executives visited his website www.osawh.com/hp2001h.html .> reserve your in-house workshop Oct- Nov, 2005, your office : osawhh@yahoo.com.cn/   wh3928@yahoo.com
Strategic China Energy trade Finance conference and Strategic  Enterprises Risks Management workshop

Do not miss these billion dollar proactive global strategic  energy solution in fighting soaring energy, feedstock costs
Dr. Warren Huang will share with you his 30 years  hundreds multinational , SOE oils, gas energy financing project managers and consulting experiences in his  key note speech  and workshop for Asian Business Forum
  China oil, gas, LNG, LPG conference Feb 24-25, 2005, Beijin on
A. China Economic , energy policy reform, rates hike   impact on  oil, gas demand, prices and gas industry structures
B. Challenges, Opportunities, Risks, return in US/ China macroeconomic control impact on oil, natural gas, LNG, LPG and downstream demand, futures prices market forces mechanism and investments  risk adjusted return
C.  Strategic Risk Management workshop:  Global / China oil, gas, LNG  Project financing operation, markets, credit, policy risks management, early warning systems  workshop
 including the causes, onset, spread, recovery, early warning of China/global energy crisis, supply bottleneck and policy, manufacturing energy conservation, de-bottlenecking 
or  reserve your full day in-house lectures and workshop by osawhh@sina.com
 Dr. Warren Huang, OSA pioneer of two master hands thousands structural dynamic quantitative models simulators tracking, forecasts controlling , forecast years, month ahead last 20 years global macro economy, business cycles, currency, 1980, 1990, 2000 and current energy crisis and daily  capital market interest rates, currency, commodity, 20 industrial sectors 5000 products asset prices.
He has develop, implemented thousands structural, dynamic causes and effect, response deterministic simulators tracking, simulate, forecast, accurately predicted  months ahead monetary, economic, fiscal, WTO policy impact on global economic, business cycles,  the root causes, onset, recovery, early warning of last 20 years global macroeconomic control, daily capital market asset prices,  asset allocation, interest rates, business cycles, liquidity, , providing the what, why, how and when and full support of Basel II three pillars  market, credit defaults, operational risk s, financial, cost accounting monitoring, scandal bubbles early warning supervision, regulation, control, minimize Basel II capital requirement, maximize transparency and risks adjusted profit,  avoided trillion dollar market NPL loss due to current unreliable VAR credit estimate and Risk Matrix rating and Monte Carlo probabilistic defaults risk measurement , offered thousands investment strategy and risk management  workshops for thousands US, Taiwan, China, Asian central banks, banking, securities, SOE, SME companies CEO, CFO, fund managers, trade, risks managers and 30 million China, Taiwan, US 15 cities  TV, radio banking, finance, executives, investors tracking daily stocks , currency, bond commodities prices , investment strategy, risks control,  invited to speak to ECB, FRB, UK, China Peoples Bank, Taiwan, Asian 24 global central banks governors, IMF, BIS  financial risks management, econometric, wealth management conferences to speak on "Asset Prices Simulation, forecasts, early warning  for last 20 years Global Financial, Banking Crisis, Recovery,  economic, business cycles, interest, currency , liquidity , Market, Credit, Operational Risk Management for financial markets speculation bubble   since 1998, published 20 English articles on US Oils & Gas Journals and US Hydrocarbon Processing Advanced control and information systems handbook 1991-2003 , for 1600 multinationals from  78 countries, tracking ,simulate, forecast market forces demand, prices mechanism, market, credit, operational risks for oil, petrochemicals, upstream/downstream, end users 20 industrial sectors, 5000 products : www.osawh.com/hp2001h.html , and thousands Chinese articles for China, Taiwan, US daily newspapers, investment, economic, finance, trade journals supporting  15 cities, TV, radio station banking, finance, fund managers, investors  global asset allocation,  risks and profit control optimization
Dr. Warren Huang key note speech  and workshop for China gas, LNG, LPG conference Feb 24-25, 2005, Beijin on
A. China oil, gas policy and gas industry structures
B. Challenges, Opportunities, Risks, return in China natural gas, LNG, LPG investments
C. Project financing operation, markets, credit, policy risks management workshop
¡@

 Speaker, Dr. Warren Huang, Pioneer, Global leader, scholar in Global Strategic Management
 

Predicted  3 months ahead last 20 years global currency, 1980, 1990, 2000 energy , financial crisis , 1994-96 and current China macro-economic control, soft-landing, 2000 US IT bubble bursts, 2001 recession and rate cut, current rate hikes...
 Dr. Warren Huang CV  accurately predicted  Nov. 5, 2003 in Singapore ,Shanghai Euro-events conferencesSingapore http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/ photos 1, 2, 3 lecture ppt  , Shanghai, Beijin Nov. 2003  Asian/China finance, capital Markets conferences,  www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm   picture  2  and to China economists meeting Fudan University, Shanghai , Dec. 2003 over 2000 QFII/QDII executives, May 8, 15, 2004 to US Silicon Valley investors, radio station , and  www.osawh.com website that excessive rate and tax cuts resulted manufacturing and consumer demand pushing US Oil prices  soared above 50, metals  prices reaching 23 year high drive 5000 downstream products prices and inflation up, will follow economic recovery in the second half of  2004 and not transitory .  weak dollar due  to soaring trade deficit, ( 55.3 billion  for June, 50 for July ) will drive  inflation up 5 %, bond market slump in May till the end of 2004  job creation, productivity, profit growth peaking out  in the second quarter 2004 Fed June, Aug  , Sept 0.25 % rate hikes China credit tightening, will follow US rate hike in 2004, global economy facing inflationary slowdown ( second half US GDP below 3 %) and followed by stagflation next year with  stocks entering bear market consolidation, with 30- 50 % correction Global IPO  will facing 30-50 % correction  as Google will  plunged from 135 to 60-80, any attempt using IPO to speculate election, yearend  market rebound will be followed by post election bubble burst  ( soaring oil, raw material cost, in global economic slowdown due to credit tighteninh) sell off bear trap , avoided trillion dollar bond, equities, derivative market loss made trillion dollar oil, commodity derivatives market profit.
China Macroeconomic control tracking, forecasts: Despite  China Peoples Bank raised deposit ratio by 1.5 % and cutting capital investment in steel, cement, aluminum, auto loan lead to  some progress macroeconomic control with Aug money supply growth at 14.2 % (below 17 % target), auto sales down 10 %, asset prices, inflation retreat from May ( benefited by  commodities prices down 15 % ). However Aug. producer, consumer price still up 5.3 % ( coastal cities Beijin, Shanghai GDP up 14 %) from year ago, wealth effect, FDI drive Aug national  housing prices up 14.8 % ( 2750 ) and 28 %for coastal cities Shanghai, Ninbo, Aug retail sale up 13.2, China  first half GDP up 9. 7 % far above 7 % target, medium, long term loan up 30.4  % repeat 1994, call the need for interest rate hike in Oct. to cool off the consumer and housing demand.  soaring China steel, cement, aluminum investment (over 120 %), coal, energy shortage,  stocks prices recent rebound from 1250  to 1470 speculating over Premier's statement over stock market stability is overheated ( accurately predicted by Dr. Huang on this website) market is over, continue bear market technical rebound ( within 20 %  and consolidation, with Shanghai A testing 1250- 1500, IPO and newly listed small cap shares plunge 30-50 % with most testing its IPO price, low prices blue chips shares like Sinopec, Unicom will lead future rebound 20  %. , This supply side tightening are insufficient to cool  the uneven economic overheating, must  follow US rate hike in Sept.  implement  structural  rate hikes to cut off excessive consumer demand in housing, construction materials, auto and retails  demand . to cool off soaring housing and metals prices, any postpone of rate rate hike  will further delay  soft landing into second half . 2005,   He also predicted  Oct. 1994 to China Wuhan securities news, Wangguo,  Kuotai  securities investors, Beijin  China Financial Times, China macroeconomic control will be soft-landing 1996, Shanghai A will be traded  between 600- 800 during 1994- 1996 He recommended that China stocks will be very attractive to QFII in the new Millennium
Global central banks, economist, financial market , industrial sectors analysts, CEO  ignoring ,Dr. Huang photo  warning to ECB, JP Morgan in Rome, China Peoples Bank governor Dai central bank governors conference in Macao, Taiwan central bank governor Asian Pacific conference Taipei, APEC finance Thailand prime minister, ASEAN central bank governors conferences in Bangkok, US Fed  governors , Washington Area, NASD finance conferences 1998-2000 on  IT asset bubble bursts
US macroeconomic, inflation control  tracking, forecasts: Dr. Huang spoke to Euro-events Singapore , Shanghai, Beijin Nov.  2003  Asian/China Finance, Capital Markets conferences lecture to 2000 QFII, QDII mutual fund managers and  China Economist annual meeting Dec. 20 and www.osawh.com  website and thousands workshops  warning  US, global analysts over optimistic  over the business and consumer spending twin growth engine will drive second half 2004 economic recovery, profit growth, bull market rally, job creation, underestimated on the impact of US dollar depreciation, excessive rate, tax cuts , 45 trillion dollar  housing, equities wealth effect resulted excessive consumer, business demand, NAPM peaking out at 66 ( already plunged to 58 as predicted ) driving soaring oil, commodities, metals asset prices bubble reaching 23 year high in March, May  and extending into the rest of  2004.  US trade deficit soared to 50- 55 billion and inflation, facing credit tightening, rate hikes after May, Aug. Sept 2004, profit , productivity growth , consumer confidence( already plunged to 96 from 106 as predicted) , business spending,  peaking out,  facing  squeeze in  second half  2004, Job creation peaking out at March 370,000,  May 230,000, June 80,000, July only 32,000 , despite Aug 112,000, stock prices peaking out in the second quarter, China and US, Global stocks bull markets are over, entering bear market consolidation.   US High tech, finance, housing, retails, auto share will give up  all its 2004 gain plunge  30-50 % and  trillion dollar loss in bond and stock markets repeating 1995 and 2000  and trillion dollar profits in oil, commodity futures investments
US inflation rate at  3.2 % in Aug., with business  spending up 10 %, consumer confidence above 100 ISM at 66 are inflationary, facing excessive inventory built up,  oil, soared to 50 and metals to  new high, will drive up 20 sectors 5000 products costs and prices, more rate hikes are on its way to cool off the economy, bond yield will return to 4.0- 4.6 %
Global Capital Markets Asset prices tracking, forecasts:
Dr. Huang lectured to 50 European, Asian, Malaysian central banks, banking, finance executives Kuala Lumpur, Sept. 30, 2002 predicted that oil prices soared to 43, Dow Jones retest 7500 Nasdaq 1250, March 2003 on Asian Business Forum.   He lectured Nov. 2003 lectured to Euro-events Singapore http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/ photos 1, 2, 3 lecture ppt  , Shanghai, Beijin Nov. Asian/China finance, capital Markets conferences,  www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm2003   picture  2  and to China economists meeting Fudan University, Shanghai , Dec. over 2000 QFII/QDII executives, identify housing, equities wealth effect bubbles   month ahead, investment opportunities in China petrochemical upstream/downstream, steel, aluminum, telecommunications ADR , Shanghai A and Hong Kong H shares, mutual fund up 80 %  IPO shares up 150 % and early warning for asset bubbles in oil, commodities prices reaching 23  year peak( recommended invested in future, derivatives gained 5000 %) in March 2004, will drive China CPI to 5 %, with steel, cement over-invested 170 % and energy shortage will lead to further credit tightening, accurately predicted China Peoples bank raise bank reserve ratio 0.5 % to 7.5 % open market inter-bank rate (Chibor)must stay above 3.% to remove 110 billion from the capital markets,  US CPI to 5.1 %, core inflation to 2.7 % in the summer , overoptimistic over US economic recovery and job creation,( despite March strong 300,000  new jobs can not sustainable after June quarter tax rebate is over ( June job creation already down to 32,000) and  inflation outlook may lead to rate hike after May and summer lead to serious bond market plunge (US lose  380 billion dollar, China lose 270 billion) housing bubble repeat 1995 bond market crash and 2000 election bubble and global IT and blue chips banking shares will peaking out in July  facing and correction 2004, Market speculators using Dell 29 % profit gain to push Dell and High tech, and blue chips is premature, Dell will facing pricing cutting from HP in back to school sales and general economic slowdown, Dell stock will plunge below 30, IBM test 80. Global IPO  will facing 30-50 % correction  as Google plunged from 135 to 60-80, any attempt using IPO to speculate market rebound will be followed by sell off bear trap  Dow will be traded 9550- 10300, Nasdaq  1750- 2000 , Taiwan index post election bubble burst from 7200 to  5000- 5500, Henseng 10500- 13200, Nikkei 10000- 11900, China credit tightening continue. Shanghai A 1250- 1500, Shenzhen 3000- 3550, Euro : 1.18- 1.26 , Yen 105- 110, US, Asian and European stocks  follow US stocks  rebound  in the third quarter 2004 will gave up all this year gain  China and US economic slowdown will drag global economic growth, stocks  ( including IPO )facing  30-50 % bear market  correction consolidation   

OSA- Asset Bubble Burst- Risks  Tracking monetary policy, equities, housing wealth effect impact on global capital market asset prices simulation, asset bubble early warning 
Basel II Operational risks OSA :Daily risks monitoring, supervision on each transactions , supporting capital requirement, full reporting transparency, 3 - pillars of Basel II risks management
cost,  profit, quality, market shares, risks performance oriented risks strategic, execution OSA teams, develop, implement risks information knowledge based, structural, dynamic causes, response simulators tracking, supervise, monitoring, predictive integrated operational, credit, markets risks and minimize risk associated capital requirement,  financial accounting auditing for entire portfolio, transaction risks and profit control full transparency, support Basel II three pillars of risks management
A. OSA-Country Risks: Country inflation/Deflation economic and business cycle, capital flow, currency, systemic credit, nonperformance loan, banking crisis and  default risks simulation and control
B. Basel II-Credit Risk OSA:  Integrating macro-economic imbalance,  currency, commodity, interest rate, stocks bond, derivative market trading, policy, operational risks into consumer and business  loan, credit  liquidity default  risks simulation, forecasts, early warning , control,  support Basel II three pillars of risks management
F.Basel II  Market Risk OSA; Monetary, economic, fiscal Policy, WTO, external shocks impact on global money, bond, currency, stocks,  energy, commodity futures, derivatives markets price risks simulation, forecasts, early warning  control  support Basel II three pillars of risks management
G. Basel II  Commodity: Risk OSA    Policy, currency, oil prices, supply/demand impact  on Energy,   Feed grain, food, metals, fibers futures and derivative prices resulted trading loss simulation.
 Basel II  Currency: Risk OSA   Interest rate spread, trade impact on  daily global currency , and it's derivatives prices dynamic , the onset of currency crisis risks simulation and control
 B. Basel II-  Interest Rate Risk OSA : Monetary, economic,  fiscal WTO, Policy, currency, inflation, commodity price shocks impact  on short , long term interest rate, treasury  and corporate bond spread  and it's derivatives prices risks simulation , control
G. OSA-Merger RIsk: Policy, external shocks, technology innovation impact on pre/post merger/acquisition cost/benefit, profit margin, stock prices performance risks simulation, control.
Big is not beautiful, it is risky: presented by Dr. Huang on JP Morgan sponsored post EURO banking and finance integration and risk management strategy Nov. 26, 1998, Rome Italy
He warned banking finance industry mega merger emphasized on staff reduction nbenefit and diversification , ignored post merger integration improvement on risk management decision making resulted Citigroup, UBS billion dollar loss in RUssian, and LTCM crisis.
Dr Huang  accurately predicted   Chase Manhatten 36 billion dollar merge  JP Morgan failed  to supportDow above 11200   it will be another one day rally, finance, JMP will give all it's gain  to 150, Chase plunge to 45 drag Dow  down to  test 10200 soon as Chase- JPM merger will not help boost the stock market trading volume, while facing addition market slump related crisis as both companies already experienced) 12/9/200)
Goldman Sach(GS)merger Spear Leed, stock market maker for 7 billion will not help GS near term perfo rmance due to IPO slowdown and falling stock prices and trading volume. GS shares will  test 120 .(11/9/2000  HWP as predicted by Dr. Huang will  testing 100.  dispite HWP merge Pricewaterhouse for 17 billion are too expensive, will not help ne ar term HWP profit margin.  HWP will be testing 100 (11/9/2000)
UBS offered 11.6 billion to merge Donaldson  Lufkin
( the merger is too expensive and risky for UBS which just recoverd billion dollars loese in 1998 Russian and LTCM crisis , will face markets slump risk in year end. UBS share will be down in the range 110 ans 150
Globa banking and finance stocks are overpriced through  speculated on waves of global finance mega mergers in Duetsch bank- Banker Trust, and other mergers can not improve it's near term peroformance in global slowdown in loaan demand, slumping stock prices and even exposed to biger nonperformance loan default risks. These stocks prices will give all it's gain in the  earning decline news month ahead
H.OSA-Procurement: Monetary policy, macroeconomic, currency, oil price shock impact on global oil,  petrochemicals, plastics, fibers, commodities,  semiconductor raw material prices strategic procurement management
I.OSA-Real Estate Risk: Monetary policy, commodities prices shock, stock markets wealth effect, inflation, capital flow  impact  on residential, office properties prices  and rent, nonperfromance  loan risk simualtion, control ,
K. OSA Eonomic, Business Cycle Risk::  Monetary policy, external shock impact on inflation, GNP, unemployment, wages,  consumer confidence,  auto, housing, appliance, electronic demand, export, purchasing managers index etc.
L. Profit Margin and accounting malpractice risks: Simulation of monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact supply, demand, prices,profit margin, provide pre-warning of ENRON, TYCO, Global Crossing accounting malpractices.

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When you have Dr. Huang's two OSA master hands you are in good hands for global central banks macro-economic control , prices stability and capital market prices simulation, forecasts , value investing strategy, wealth management,  risk hedging  tracking/forecasts month ahead  the root causes, onset, spread, recovery of Asian/Global financial crisis, asset bubble bursts lecture to 24 global central bank governors, wealth management, financial market risk management conferences and millions global central banks, banking, finance, corporate CEO, executives on this website  since 1998 ,  over 30 million China, Taiwan, Asian, US , ASEAN, European executives, investors on TV, radio programs and thousands workshops since 1985 and again in 2003 to Euro-events Singapore http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/  with excellent feedback photos 1, 2, 3 lecture ppt  , Shanghai, Beijin Nov. Asian/China Finance, Capital Markets conferences,  www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm2003 he was excellently received  picture  2  and to China economists meeting Fudan University, Shanghai , Dec. over 2000 QFII/QDII executives, identify month ahead, investment opportunities in China ADR Hong Kong H shares, China A shares and early warning for asset bubbles in commodities prices reaching 19 year peak, will drive US CPI to 2.6 %, core inflation to 1.7 % in the summer , overoptimistic over US economic recovery and job creation, inflation outlook  serious housing bubble will lead to rate hike, despite high unemployment in the election year and global IT and blue chips banking shares  facing and correction 2004, Dow will be traded 9750- 10500, Nasdaq  1900- 2090 , Taiwan index  6000- 7000, Henseng 12500- 14000, Nikkei 10000- 11500, China credit tightening continue. Shanghai A 1600- 1750, Shenzhen 3500- 4100, Euro : 1.18- 1.29 , Yen 105- 112, US, Asian and European stocks gave up all this year gainHundred thousands integrated, global  structural, dynamics, deterministic proprietary model simulators
first time  shown on this website the  most reliable  global stock indices , currency OSA simulation charts 
OSA Simulation Charts tracking forecasts 1-3 month ahead monetary policy on last 20 years daily financial , currency crisis:
A. Consumer spending, Fed Fund rate, Dollar exchange rate impact on Dow Jones Index
B. Japan money supply growth, Yen exchange rate, Dow Jones impact on Tokyo Nikkei index
C. EU  money supply growth, EURO exchange rate, Dow Jones impact on German DAX index
D. Hong Kong money supply growth, interbank rate, Dow Jones impact on Henseng index have been developed, implemented supporting the following  goal, mission, performance oriented  outsourcing strategic centers corporate/ memberships/ workshops   tailored to global government, enterprises, banking, finances enterprises  board members, think tank and executives in integrating into the global markets decision needs:
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He  spoke to Beijin University Finance, Business center sponsored Global finance conference on "Global stocks, asset prices simulation, risk management May 28-29   He warned that US and Asian, Euroepan  market analyst, economist overopimistic over US recovery, stock, fund overheated for 30-50 % correction, Dow Jones plunged below 8000, Taiepi stock index test 4400-4700, Henseng, Nikkei test 9000, but Cina Shanghai A rebound from 1450 to 1750. He introducing his thousnads  of proprietary strategic OSA simulators maximize global investment banking profits at minimum risks through tracking accurately last 20 years monetary, economic , fiscal policy impact on global capital markets investment banking decsions during crisis :
The Root Causes, Onset, recovery of Global Financial Crisis and risk management
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Dr. Huang  just return from  Asia, lectured to Asian Business Forum's  European, Asian central banks, stock exchanges, banking, securities executives on global nonperformance loan debt, equities, properties  asset prices , credit risk simulation, investment strategy and  Asset Backed Securitization workshops: predicting the unpredictable futures to  minimize bad loan ,shares buy back  procurement , investment costs and credit defaults risks  due to corporate scandal and global economic, cycle, financial crisis integration, interaction  impact on interest, currency,industrial demand, prices,  the causes, onset, history , recovery of  of nonperformance  asset bubble bursts, default maximize  investment return,  auction  resell , syndicated loan  value recovery, workshops by  thousands proprietary OSA simulation charts supporting daily financial engineering, structural  finance application to Global Capital Markets Asset Management, Credit defaults risks control on this website
He will offer   in-house workshops in Asia   reserve :email   wh3928@yahoo.com  
Two master hands controlling global capital market, asset prices, bubble bursts early warning risks
2002 US and Global Stock Market Crash OSA :Strategic decision failure on  Bubble burst corporate Infectious Greed ,Scandals, plunging dollar cutting into investors, consumer confidences
What is wrong with  Wall Street and global financial market?, chasing,  speculation resulted bubbles
Why markets crash 30 % ? Where is the bottom ? WHen to invest ? What Wall Street need ?
It is premature to speculate Fed rate cut to support the stock bond market: 40 year low rate already give trouble to soaring deficit and plunging dollar, drag further the stocks and bond
How  to predict the unpredictable global economic bubbles, global financial markets crash
Global Economy and Financial  Markets Prices Simulation for Global Central Banks, Investment Banking  and Finance  Crisis Real Options Risk OSA ( Operations Simulation Analysis)Control,  for government, regulation, suvervision and accounting malpractices pre-warning:

Real Time Dynamic simulation of Global central banks  Monetary, economic, fiscal  Policy Impact on   daily money, currency, industrail supply, demand, supply, prices, corproate earning, stocks, bond, commodity, financial futures and derivatives markets prices including the causes, onset, spread, recovery of  Asian, Russia, South America Financial Crisis and LTCM hedging fund failure and current US High tech   prices bubble bursts, recession, recovery  impact on the new economy boom and bust and financial systems stability  with applications to global banking and finance , corporate  pre/post merger integration performance improvement and daily accounting malpractices, credit default risk management for stocks markets, banking and insurance companies regulation, supervision.

OSA pioneer Dr. Warren Huang has offered thousands seminars, workshops, daily commentary to TV, radio lectures for  30  million China, Taiwan,15 cities (Beiin, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guanzhou, Taipei) ASEAN, Asian, US government, central banks, banking, finance, corporate CEO, CFO, senior executive, fund managers, analysts, investorson GNP growth,  price stability risks control policy, government, financial industry, Corporate reform, reengineering,  default risks supervision, regulation, prevention, daily global financial market  portfolio, real estate properties markets bubble risks management, supply chain cost reduction   on the job training , decision support for internet e-commerce, e-business, e-finance, e-investment  applications   

Global  Economic, Financial, Banking Crisis, Causes, Onset, Spread,  Recovery, Risks Simulation, Prevention  Pre-Warning 
by Dr. Warren Huang, pioneer, OSA  email  wh3928@yahoo.com

Simulation of monetary policy impact Analysis
Monetary Policy, Oil Prices Impact on Global Financial, Energy Crisis, Recovery, Risk Control
The author has spend half of his time in Taiwan, ASEAN, Asia( 1980- 1996) and China, Hong Kong(1994-1998 with Ji in China), and US(1998-2001), in developing, implementing dynamics Operations Simulation Analysis (OSA) of global central banks monetary, economic policy, oil prices impact on daily EURO, Asian, US, global macro economy, daily financial markets normal, crisis dynamics during 1980 and 2001.
A: Root Causes of EURO, Asian and Global Economic Boom and Bust, Financial Markets Crisis, Risks Simulation :
These real time simulation systems tracking successfully the root causes of all global economic bubble boom and bust, financial, banking ,energy crisis and associated risks came from excessive government fiscal, central banks monetary policy and global players hot money speculation resulted soaring properties, stocks prices, labor costs and associated asset bubble, wealth effect led to soaring consumer, business demand, rising oils and commodity prices, imports costs, declining export, shrinking trade surplus or expanding trade, current account deficit and overpriced currency and properties, equities prices. And eventual markets crash and crisis.
B. Simulation of the Onset of EURO, Asia, Global Currency Crisis:-Instantaneous releasing overpriced stress
These simulators tracking the real causes and the onset of the 1992 European, 1994, China, 1995, Mexico, 1997 Thailand, 1998 Korea and Indonesia , Russia, Brazil currency, financial crisis at moment widening trade deficit (approaching one billion monthly) and current account deficits lead to overpriced currency and the onset of crisis:- currencies plunge to release it's overvalued stress, returned to new rational equilibrium. UK and Sweden, Italy suffered currency plunge 1992, due to widening trade deficit . while Thailand, central bank float the Bhat (has been fixed at 25 for 4 years), in July 1997, it plunge to 50, S. Korea in Nov, Won plunge to 2100, and Sept, Russia float the ruble, and 1999 March, Brazil float it's Real all at the wrong time ( at one billion US dollar monthly trade deficit and current account deficit,) the currency take the plunge as shown in the simulation charts in the conference), and Singapore dollar, Taiwan NT dollar dropped 30 % reflecting shrinking trade surplus and turning into trade deficit. US dollar plunge to 102 Yen from 147 at the time Greenspan announce interest rate cuts in winter 1998, as it's trade deficit soared to 26 billion due to wealth effect resulted soaring stock prices, import demand and tripled oil prices.

C. Simulation of The Onset of Global Stock Markets Crash Crisis Dynamics:- releasing overpriced stress
These global stock markets dynamic simulators tracking instantaneous markets reacting to rising interests rates, credit tightening ( to fight inflation and stabilize the currency, created credit crunch. The currency and stock markets crashed to it's rational level, to release it's overpriced stress to new equilibrium resulted trillion dollars loses . Global financial market analysts have short memory on the interest rate hike impact on stock prices despite interest rate hikes lead to Asian crisis which Thailand raised interest rate to 25 % to stabilized Bhat at 50, took the Bangkok SET index plunge 70 % from 1000 to 250, Hong Kong raised it's short term interest rate to 19 % to defend it's HK dollars stock to US dollar, took the Henseng index plunge 60 %(from 12500 to 6200),Singapore raised interest rate to 12 % to stabilize the currency, Singapore Strait Times drop 60 %, Taiwan Index down 48 % . US Dow Plunged from 11300 to 9000 , Nasdaq from 5100 to 1800 this year and EURO stocks retreat 20 % reacting to US Fed and ECB interest rate hikes to cool-off the overheated US, EURO stocks bubble in internet and biotech and housing, labor markets due to wealth effect created excessive consumer, business demand. Similar crisis onset in 1987 US Dow Jones, 1990 Japan cut money supply from 13 % to 5 % to cooloff the bubble economy due to soaring stocks, housing markets, took Nikkei plunge 38000 to 20000, Taiwan raise interest from 6 % to 14 % took stock plunge form 12400 to 2400 and in 1992 European currency, crisis took stock plunge 40 %, 1994 China runaway inflation caused by 100 % currency depreciation, Shanghai A index plunged from 1500 to 333, reacting to doubled interest rates hike and Mexico crisis peso and stock market plunge 50 % Brazil index plunged from 8500 to 5400 reacting interest rate hike from 40 % to 70 %
D. Simulation of the Spread and capital out flow, banking default of EURO, Asian and Global Currency Crisis:
Thousands expert systems based simulators tracking, simulating the causes and spread of the past major global financial market currency crisis, FDI capital In/outflow, banking default and risks in the last 20 years are due to global central banks and financial markets decision makers. The spread of global financial crisis and default risks are caused through excessive central banks money supply followed by global players capital inflow speculating the overheated financial markets and outflow created market plunge resulted nonperformance loan and credit default(simulation results shown in the conference demonstrated the spread of UK, EURO currency crisis in 1992, Thailand currency plunge spread into ASEAN country, Hong Kong, Taiwan, S Korea, Russia default resulted LTCM into US and EURO , Brazil and Japan and this year s trillion dollars market loses in US, Taiwan, Korea are of poor investment strategy in US properties, stocks and Asian stocks and manufacturing industries caught in excessive money supply and global short term capital (hot money) inflow resulted overheated bubble economy (skyrocketing properties, stock prices and labor costs, declining export, widening trade, current deficit,(with one billion trade deficit) Indonesia, Russia were complicated by internal political turmoil, resulted global player pulling capital outflow resulted currency, stocks, properties prices plunge .

E. Simulation of Global Monetary, Economic Policy, oil prices Impact on Post Recovery of Asian and Global Financial Markets Crisis:
These systems tracking, simulate the IMF rescue plan progress results and the recovery of ASEAN, Asian, Russia, Brazil and LTCM betting on the wrong of interest rates(US T-Bond and Fed fund rates) and bond yield spreads. And predicted US Fed three interest rate cuts lead to fast US and Asian stock market rebound and economic recovery:, reduce the interest rate spread ,took the pressure off Asian currency , dollar tumbled from 147 to 111 While most ASEAN and Asian troubled country benefited by high interest rate, falling commodities prices, reduced domestic demand, imports, cheap currency lead to soaring export and trade surplus(S. Korea has 40 billion ) and soaring export growth, are able to cut interest rates to the pre crisis level., and maintain stable currency, lead to stock markets more than tripled S. Korea already lead the recovery enjoy 11 % GNP Japan has 9 % GNP growth, Thailand, Hong Kong, Singapore return to 10 % growth., China back to 8.1 % Taiwan back to 7 % growth getting out of recession and deflation ..
These systems predicted on May 1999 Macao's central banks policy conference the first US interest rate hike to fight domestic inflation due to soaring oils prices, and demand, 5 other interest rate hikes in the author's 16 int'l conferences later (ref. 1-18)
These systems accurately predicted US and EURO 1999 last quarter excessive money supply for Y2K resulted soaring global stocks and housing markets(asset bubble), resulted wealth effect led to runaway consumer, business spending debt resulted labor shortage forced Greenspan took series interest rate hikes in 2000 to cool-off the stocks, housing markets, reduce consumer, business demand. These simulators accurately predicted in early 1999 that global financial markets analysts overoptimistic over second half 2000 and 2001 earning outlook Dow 15 % plunge, Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Thailand follow Nasdaq plunge 60 %, Dow plunged into 9100 bear market and US NAPM index plunge to 41.7 recession low resulted Greenspan 0.5 % rate cut with global high fliers internet, biotech IPO stocks plunge 50 % to 95 % will drag Asian stocks into 50 %, EURO stocks into 20 % correction .
Goal Mission, Performance oriented multidisciplinary Risk Operations Simulation Analysis(OSA) strategic and execution teams for risk management and restructuring, reengineering
Hundreds risks OSA teams have been implemented in Taiwan, China, US: ASEAN by the author , Integrating daily central banks monetary operation into banking, financial markets debt restructuring, pre and post merger integration performance improvement, transparency, supervision, Basal, Prudential Regulations tracking and prevent various financial systemic risk related nonperformance loan and credit defaults and government, banking, financial markets, corporate reform, reengineering , management, technological innovation to improve global competitiveness
On the job training workshops and Academic University Teaching and Research: The author has offered these methodology and systematic analysis to thousands risk management workshops in China, and Taiwan 14 major cities nationwide TV, radio program lectures to 30 million government, banking, finance executives, managers, investors and trained over 1000 chemical engineering, economics, global strategic management operations research senior and graduates teaching and research program`.
Pre and post crisis recovery Simulation results of EURO, Thailand, Japan, Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, China, Taiwan , US inflation, GNP, interest rates, FDI capital flow, bank defaults rate, properties prices, Currency, stock, bond index, profit margin and corporate stock prices simulation will be demonstrated in the conference
Monetary Policy Impact on Global Money, Currency, Stocks and Derivatives Markets Prices Risks simulation, control
Global central bankers have been facing daily challenges, risks from the macro economic growth ,financial market prices stability in the trillion dollar Asian, Russia, Brazil currency crisis and the mature financial markets turbulence like 1998 summer 4 billion dollar LTCM failure betting on the wrong side of interest rate, bond spread and global stock markets trillion dollars loses due to ignoring EURO, US interest hikes impact on global slowdown, corporate earning decline, stock prices plunge 50- 90 % and global credit crunch in 70 trillion dollar financial derivatives markets.
The global central bankers are playing dual role in provide prudent monetary policy to achieving nations price and growth stability and monitoring it’s impact on the economics and daily financial market dynamics ( normal and crisis discontinuous) responses and supervising the banking industry providing prudent credit decisions to support the economic growth and healthy financial markets trading process.
F5 Day  US  Macroeconomic, Housing , equities bubble control  and Default Crisis Early Warning the causes, onset, recovery, early warning of mortgage default , credit crises
Monetary Policy Impact on Global Economics ,Banking, Financial Crisis, Systems Risks Simulation:

Monetary Policy impact on Derivatives for Global Strategic Cost Reduction and Risk Management:
Almost 100 trillion dollars have been traded for commodities, and financial derivatives extensively by the global financial industries for oil, gasoline, heating oil, raw material costs, interest rate, currency and markets risk reduction management, while hedging fund have exposed to three trillions dollars on the leverage fund management, which all relied on the current unreliable risk and options models, which required probability input and betting on the wrong side of the interest rates, currency and stock, bond prices. This paper will present our options/warrants prices models are much simpler and more reliable than Black-Schole formula. Since it provide direct tracking, simulation of central bankers monetary policy impact on interest rate, currency, financial, commodity futures prices , corporate profit margin and stock prices simulation and integrate into the financial derivatives call/put options, warrant calculation( striking price, date to expiration, and the simulation of current prices).
US housing prices bubble Simulation /Forecasts:
This equation predicted US 6 year economic expansion since 1995, Dow Jones tripled from 3600 to 11400 , Nasdaq soared 5 times lead to wealth effect pushed nationwide housing price index up 50 % in 2000 with some major high tech cities like San Francisco, Silicon Valley, Boston, NY, prices even tripled. These repeat  bubble burst in 1990 Fed interest rate hike resulted price plunge 50 %
However Fed 6  rate hike led to new economy bubbl burst in early  2000 and 2001 recession(accurtely predicted by Dr. Huang on www.osawh.com/ www.sina.com ), Nasdaq plunged 70 %, Dow loss 30 %, resulted 4.5 trillion wealth effect loss drag US house prices plunge 20 to 40 %( in silicon valley. However, 11 rate cuts to 1.75 % and trillion dollar tax cuts led to 6 months US stock rally and wealth gain support the housing markets resuilted prices rebound 10 %
Rate hike in the second half, poor busniess spendinig, high unnempllyment will kept prices in check
OSA/Japan: Macro economics and financial markets applications:
These equation indicated Japan enjoyed 9.6 % GDP growth at 13.5 % money supply growth and double digit export growth are excessive, inflationary in 1990 lead to Nikkei to 38000. And benefited by soaring export and BOJ stimulus package to boost the domestic demand boost the money supply from 4 % to 10 % and at zero interest rate Nikkei rebound from 15000 to 22500 lead Japan getting out of deflation in 2000. However US, EURO slowdown and rising oil prices lead to Japan trade deficit, export decline, US high tech stock plunge drag Japan money supply growth rate to 2 % ,Nikkei to 11500 , despite Bank of Japan inject money into the financial systems, buy back 368 billion stocks to remove banks nonperformance and boost money supply led to strong Nikkei rebound from 11600 to 13500,will facing resistance around 13000-14000. It can do little to stop global slowdown, Japan declining consumer spending and GDP contraction and 4.9 % high unemployment
Japan Housing prices bubble Simulation /Forecasts:
This equation predicted Japan housing prices soared 10 times during the late 1980’s as money supply growth soared form 5 % to 13 %, Tokyo house prices soared 10 times, ranking top in global prices, as Nikkei soared from 15000 to 38000 . Tokyo house prices plunge 70 % as money supply growth plunge from 13 to 3 %, during 1990- 1998, It rebound 30 % as money supply growth from 2 % to 5 % in Asian crisis recovery in 1999 and government economic stimulus package, Nikkei rebound from 13000 to 18000 in 1999,. However it down 10 % since Nikkei plunge from 22000 to 11500 in 2001, simulation results will be demonstrated in the conference.

OSA/China Financial Markets and Economy Application:
How China avoided 1994 Financial Crisis and made soft-landing and 1998 Asian Financial Crisis Simulation:

This author with Ji and Dai spending half time in China during 1988 - 1998 implementing these relationships tracking Taiwan, Hong Kong and China peoples banks monetary policy impact on inflation and GNP and interest rate, Taiwan and RMB currency and stock markets prices. It accurately tracking and predicted daily China economy and financial markets activities, how the current Prime minister Zhu Rongji successfully managed China's monetary policy led China avoided possible financial crisis by successfully controlled the inflation, to bring it down from 35 % and 100 % currency depreciation to deflation of ?.5 %in 1999 and current 2.5 % by cutting the money supply growth from peak of 35 % in 1994 to 1996 15 % to achieve soft-landing and boost domestic demand to maintaining 15 % money supply growth 7.8 % GNP growth which lead to Shanghai stock index plunge from 1994’s peak of 1550 to 333 and stabilized traded between 600 and 800 during 1994 and 1996 through three stages credit tightening to cut the domestic demand and reduced the import duty by 30 % to reduce the importing inflation and implemented stock markets and financial institution regulation and full transparency, ban short term foreign capital speculation in the housing and stock markets achieved perfect soft-landing in 1996. And also predicted 1996 interest rate cuts leading to bull markets, with Shanghai A index tripled from 520 to 1650 . ( all predicted by the author on lectures to 20 million 15 cities TV, radio programs and national newspapers during 1994- 98 .The state enterprise reform and Asian crisis resulted high unemployment and export slowdown, pulling the money supply down from 1996?s 28 % to 14 % in 1999, drag the GNP form 9.5 % to 7.8 % . But recovered strongly by domestic stimulus package and strong export growth (40 %) this year in soaring global demand, . with GDP 8.3 % and Shanghai index soared to 2100 new high while global stocks under correction due to US interest rate hike
The declining export, 50 billion domestic public construction deficit budget and 150 billion short term debt and falling corporate profit and falling prices as entering WTO this year. China will feel the global slowdown early 2001 , as stock prices just completed under 10 % correction predicted by the author tracking of China macro, financial trade economic impact on 700 listed corporate industries trends, profit margins and stock prices
China Housing prices bubble Simulation /Forecasts:
This equation predicted China housing prices soared 10 times during 1986- 1994 as money supply growth soared form -5 % to 35 %, Beijin, Shanghai house prices soared 10 times, ranking top 5 in global prices, as Shanghai stock index soared from 150 to 1500 . Housing prices plunge 70 % as money supply growth plunge from 35 to 12 %, during 1994- 1998, It rebound 30 % as money supply growth from 12 % to 15 % in Asian crisis recovery in 1999 and government economic stimulus package, Shanghai index rebound from 520 to 2100 since 1999,.
OSA/ASEAN and OSA/Asian, OSA/Russia, OSA/South America Financial Crisis Root Causes Simulation:

These formulas indicated the rest of Asian emerging countries, Russia, Mexico, Brazil failed to do so, maintaining excessive money supply and growth, by encourage short term hot money speculating in housing and stock markets resulted soaring stocks and properties prices and labor costs caused export decline and huge trade and current account deficit, led to runaway currency depreciation and inflation, followed by rising interest rate and tight money supply resulted economic contraction between 5 % and 10 % started July of 1997 , the burst of the asset bubble and widening of bond yield spread
These formula provide global central bankers and IMF combined feedforward and feedback control of inflation GNP through micro-tuning policy, meeting growth and stability control without causing damage due to deflation and inflation

Monetary Policy Impact on daily Global Financial Markets Dynamics Simulations:
Monetary Policy and shocks, speculative attack impact on global Financial Markets dynamics under stress:

Global Interest Rates , Bond prices and spread, Debt Markets Dynamics , Credit, Market Risk Simulations
The global central bankers use the commodity prices and inflation rate as the leading indicators for setting the monetary policy and short term interest rates (inter-bank rate or Fed fund rate), while the long term interest rate bond yield are related to the dollar exchange rate which influence the capital flow

.Short term Interbank or Fed fund rate =F (Money supply growth rate %, commodity index, oil price, inflation )
long term bond yield = F( money supply growth rate %, dollar exchange rate, inflation rate)

These formulas tracking, simulate global interest rate, bond prices dynamics accurately. It indicate that reduced demand due to Asian turmoil have drag down the global oils and , commodities prices and inflation,

US treasury and junk bond prices spread LTCM failure simulation :

The plunging oil prices during Asian Crisis allow US, China , Japan and EURO central banks applying expansionary monetary policy, which lead to falling interest rates and all time high in bond prices, US 30 yr ?T-Bond yield dropped below 4.5 % due to low inflation and strong dollar, while the junk Russia bond and US corporate bond was hurt by global financial crisis, especially Russia high inflation, plunge oil income lead to trade deficit and falling rubble , pushed yield to all time high led to widening spread summer 1998 as predicted by this formula, while LTCM speculate on Russia junk bond believe bond spread will converge below 2 %( it widening to 4 % instead) LTCM lead to US Fed three interest rate cut to 4.5 % to cut dollar strength, therefore the bond spread due to due to strong dollar and low inflation, oil prices
However, excessive money supply in 1998 lead to soaring US and global stocks, strong Asian recovery , with excessive money supply in winter 1999 for Y2K pushed global stocks even higher lead oil price doubled from 10 to 37, US inflation up from 1.1 to 3.5 % forced US 6 interest rate hike to 6.5 and EURO 7 interest rate hike to 4.75 % to cool off the soaring US stock market fueling consumer, business demand, pushing housing prices and labor prices bond yield soared from 4.5 % to 6.5%(with junk corporate bond yield soared to 13.5 %), due to falling dollar, rising inflation, plunging stock prices and concerned about asset bubble burst.
These deterministic models minimize risks , saving trillion dollar loses due to central bankers monetary policy risks, credit risks in developing countries, and betting on the wrong side of interest rates by LTCM and other banking and financial industry executives`

OSA/ASEAN, ASIAN and Russia, Brazil crisis applications While the troubled ASEAN and Asian countries and Russia, Brazil, Mexico central bankers have to tight the money supply, raising interest rates to fight inflation and stabilize the currency which caused by excessive money supply and currency depreciation, led to capital outflow, bond , stocks, plunge, bond yield spread soared to new high, instead of converge.

Monetary Policy, Trade Impact on Global Currency Exchange Rates Dynamics, Risks Simulation?
The Onset of global currency crisis:.

US dollar exchange rates are related to US and other countries trade deficit (or surplus) and the two countries interest rates spread

Dollar exchange rate = F (US trade deficit, the other country's trade surplus (deficit), interest rate spread)

Over 100 IMF countries dollar currency exchange rates simulations have been used for 1000 chemical engineering and economics seniors course assignment by the author. Tracking results have been published in the weekly trade journal for 100,000 Taiwan's Taipei importer/exporters members daily trading decisions for 100 countries export/import strategy
This formula accurately predicted 1998 summer US dollar overpriced at 147 Yen, due to soaring Japan trade surplus against widening US trade deficit, US 3 interest rate cuts led dollar plunge 20 % to 110. And continue its down trend to 103. Yen pluinged to 125 again this year as Japan suffer trade deficit due to soaring oil, prices, import, and export decline and stock prices plunged from 20000 to 11500 due to US, EURO slowdown, Japan high unemployment, decline consumer spending, falling interest rate,
And EURO plunge from 1.17 to current 0.83, as the union trade surplus plunged from 8 billion to widening trade deficit of 800 million due to soaring oil prices and import, despite ECB 7 interest rate hikes and intervention, recent oil price plunge below 25 and US economic slowdown pushed EURO to 0.95.
EURO and global major currency OSA forecasts as follows:
Asian, Russia, South American Currency Crisis, Risks Dynamics Simulation
The above formula tracking, simulating ASEAN, Asian troubled countries, Russian, Brazil daily currency dynamics before, at the onset of , during and after the crisis with average error below 1.5 %. It accurately predicted these central bankers must tighten money supply, raised interest rate to stabilize the exchange rate (increase the interest rate spread) due to rising trade and current account deficit.
Pre- currency crisis root causes Dynamic simulation :The excessive money supply and pouring foreign capital inflow led to ASEAN, Asian , Russia, Brazil economic boom and skyrocketing labor and properties, stock prices and wages, have cut into the export market competitiveness (against China's low labor costs), lead to soaring trade and current account deficit in Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Korean, Hong Kong, Brazil, Russia. This formula indicated fixed currency were overpriced(as shown)

Dynamics Simulation of onset and during the currency crisis

The widening of trade deficit to one billion US dollars lead to overprices currency : as the announcement of floating the currency lead to instantaneous currency deprecation according to this formula: Thailand, had to raise to interest rate from 15 % to 30 %, to stabilize the Baht exchange rate around 50(depreciated form 25), Hong Kong raised the interbank rate from 5 % to 25 % to allow the Hong Kong dollar stick to the 7.7), S. Korea has to raised the interest from 20 % to 40 % to prevent it drop to 2000 (depreciated from 750) , Indonesia had to raise interest rate from 20 % to 57 % to stabilize the Rupiah at 17000., Malaysia, Taiwan and Singapore, Australia all had to raise interest rates to stabilize their currency due to widening trade deficit, . The central bankers must raise the interest rate to stabilize their currency and fight inflation. Thailand, Korea, Hong Kong, Brazil, doubled interest rate Russia tripled the interest rate to fight inflation and stabilize currency , cut domestic consumption, thus improve trade and current account surplus.
OSA/Brazil central bank decision to float the Real currency, cut the interest rate to save the stock market, took the Real dropped from 1.1 to 2.4, help to boost the export, the stock responded to the interest rate cut, rebounded from 5000 to 9700, the global players are supporting the stock markets make it stick to Dow index (following Hong Kong style), despite Brazil economy under 4 % contraction and further tightening to cut expenses, Brazil interest rate, Real currency and impact on stock market have been simulated accurately
Dynamics simulation of Monetary Policy on UK, 11 EURO member countries currency, stocks Prices :
EURO currency :, it will have support around 0. 82- 0.84 . However weaker EURO will boost EMU export, plunging oil prices resulted union shrinking trade deficit to 800 million vs US 34 billion deficit, Rising EURO interest rate also help stabilize EURO currency to 0.88- 0.95-

currency simulation and currency crisis simulation will be demonstrated in my workshops
Monetary policy impact on global stock market indices cash and futures trading loses risks simulation:

Stock Index/Bond cash and future price = F (M2 money supply growth, interest rate, dollar exchange rate)

This relationship simulated last 20 years 40 daily international stock market stock indices, including normal and major crisis (under stress discontinuous data) with average error below 1.5 %. It predicted 1987 crash as FED raise fund rate 0.75 %: recent Nasdaq plunge form 5100 to 1800 as Fed 6 interest rate hike and 1995 Baring betting on the wrong side of Nikkei Index. And 1990 Nikkei crash from 38000 as Bank of Japan tightening the money supply growth from 13 % to 5 %
OSA/US Dow Jones Index risk dynamics simulation:,

1987 crash :The high US inflation rate (6.5% ) complicated by the Iranian war in early Oct. 17, 1987, pushed the oil price to 25, lead US Fed credit tightening, reduce the money supply growth from 9 % to 7 %,, raised the Fed fund rate from 9 % to 9.75%, the Dollar Yen exchange rate drop from 150 to 136, took the Dow instantaneously crashed from 2250 to 1520 It also indicate the Dow responding to 1998 winter 3 Fed fund rate cut , each 25 base point corresponding to raise the consumer spending and pushed Dow 800 points ( the first rate cut pushed money supply from 6.9 % at the credit crunch, Dow rebounded from 7400 bottom to 8200, the second rate cut pushed money supply from 8.5 % to 9.5 %, pushed Dow from 8200 to 9000, while the third rate cut led to overheated stock and properties prices and speculation, the money supply growth pushed to 10.5 % in January, took the Dow marching toward 10,000 and making new highs in mid March, due to high money supply growth of 10 .5% and three Fed fund rate cuts to 4.5 %,dollar plunge 20 % to boost export (IC and computer industry are benefited)
and US 6 rate hikes to cooloff consumer spending from 9 % to 5 % pulled Dow 20 % to 9100, as shown Chart Nasdaq down 65 % to 1850, EURO 7 rate hikes drag EURO stocks 15 % as indicated

OSA/Global Trade : Monetary Policy Impact on Global Trade simulation:
Global trade are closely related to global monetary policy which indicating importing country cousumer demand, and exporting country currency (cost)
For country bilateral or multilateral trade:
Export Growth = (export market central bank monetary growth, interest rate, currency exchange rate)
Import growth rate =( central bank money supply growth, interest rate, currency exchange)
OSA/Global: indicated Asian, Russia, Brazil crisis countries all depreciated currency , make export price very cheap to boost export, made import very expensive to cut domestic demand, and import, therefore boost trade surplus to support the currency.
OSA/US: US interest rate cut led US dollar depreciate 10 % against EURO to boost US goods export to EURO but US dollar up from 103 to 123 against Japan’s sluggish demand( money supply growth stay at 2%, cut into US eport to Japan, lead to US export decline , while the soaring oil, raw material prices pushed US and global import led to soaring US trade deficit to 35 billion
the author has conducted university teaching, research , trained 1000 chemical engineering, economics, strategic management students tracking simulate 100 IMF countries central bankers monetary, WTO trade policy impact on GNP, interest rates, exchange rates, commodities, refinery, petrochemicals, fibers, plastics raw material and 500 consumers products prices, He also provide decision support and on the job training to Taiwan's government state and private enterprises restructuring, global strategic management and consulting to 100,000 importer/exporter association members weekly global currency, global import/export markets spot, contract pricing, commodities, raw material, products in import and 100 international countries export /import market strategy
He also offered hundreds on the job training for 10,000 corporate finance, marketing, sales, production, Quality management, production VP, senior managers. And has written thousands articles on real time tracking, simulation, forecasts of global currency exchange rates interest rates, impact on crude oil, petrochemical, fibers, plastics, rubbers raw materials, IC, computers spot, contract prices, procurement, products competitive pricing ,marketing shares improvement strategy.,
Capital Investment and equities investing strategy
Global old and new economics capital investment ignoring demand side economics impact on
product sales demand, prices, and investment return, which resulted excess capacity in olefin, petrochemical, fibers, polymers in Asia (Taiwan, China, Japan, Korea) in 1993-1997 oversupply , prices profit plunge during recent energy crisis, even oil prices soared to 37, the downstream ethylene, styrene still stayed below 600 USA/MT vs 1900 in 1990.
While the new economic IT products chips, PC, internet, network, fiber optics, wireless telecommunication equipment made the same mistakes by heavy investment and expansion in US, Korea, Taiwan during 1999-2000., ignoring US Fed 6 rate hikes to cool off the consumer and business spending as warned by this author in 18 global central banks conference.
These heavy investments created sharp prices cutting and huge operating loss, stock prices plunged 95 %
Pre-and post merger acquisition performance simulation
The industry failed in pre-and post merger acquisition performance simulation in billion dollar mega merger created even huge loss and debt
Global Oils, Petrochemicals Industry Corporate Pre and Post Mergers/ Acquisitions OSA(Jan 20, 2000
Exxon-Mobil merger:
Based on the author's associated with both Mobil and AMOCO headquarters, both company although enjoyed over 135 % gain in profits downstream refining, petrochemical operations are hurt by soaring crude oil prices, cut into profit margin to only 6.5 % , 15,000 staff cut to save 3.5 billion payroll cost may not improve it's post merger integration performance as oil prices peaking out and the strict environment standard on restriction MTBE additive in gasoline as it happen in Compaq, Boeing and others.) stock prices will be below 100. It need to do more in the post merger acquisition integration and improve on the procurement, refining operation strategic improvement, which can cut billion dollars and expand margin to above 10 %

However BPAMOCO merger is more goal oriented in global diversification, It invested 20 % in China's national co PetroChina, and strengthen it's global marketshares, stock price at 50 is attractive will be traded in 50-72
The author have development Over ten thousands of artificial intelligence, neural net, fuzzy logic, chaos algorithms based daily global interest rates, currency rates, commodity, oils, petrochemicals feedstock, products , financial futures, options prices, corporate profitability and stock prices Operations Simulations Analysis expert systems, and implemented for US, Asian Pacific, European multinational oil, petrochemicals, information, biotech industry corporate investment banking, government, state enterprises reform, privatization, restructuring, reengineering, pre and post merger/acquisitions applications during the last 30 years with Mobil, AMOCO, Phillips Petroleum, Stauffer Chemicals US headquarters (subsidiary of Rhone Poulenc) (These systems have been recommend by US Hydrocarbon Processing Advanced Control and Information Management, Productivity and Quality, Process Design & Optimization Handbook during 1991- 1997, Over 1000 major cos from 65 US, European, Asian Pacific, South American countries including EXXON, Dupont, BP, Shell, BASF, Aramco, Sinopec, IBM, Merck . In addition to thousands corporate managers contacted 32 OSA based corporate pre and post merger/acquisitions restructuring, reengineering performances analysis )and strategy, tracking, simulate daily US Fed and global central bankers monetary policy, interest rates, currency, Asian financial crisis and it's impact on global global commodity, industrial raw materials, financial futures, options prices, corporate profitability, stock prices. He has directed over 1000 senior graduate chemical engineering . students to develop OSA approach to 60 refinery, petrochemicals, fibers, plastics process simulations and corporate global strategic management applications for oil, petrochemicals industry pre and post merger/acquisition restructuring, reengineering and performances improvements simulation, investment, risk management for helping 20 millions global corporate CEO, finance, import/ export, currency, equities trading, procurement, marketing managers, investors to take advantage of investment opportunities in last 20 years financial crisis through the joint academic-industry training centers setup, in OSA goal mission, performance oriented OSA teams directed by Dr. Warren Huang to provide on the job training for oil, petrochemicals industry corporate managers in pre and post merger/acquisition daily decision analysis
US weekly Fed and European, Asian central bankers money supply, fund rate, Asian Financial Crisis, Yen exchange rate and new product development impact on daily BP AND AMOCO pre and post mergers performance OSA

Pre mergers OSA: Oils and Petrochemical industries are badly hurt by the Asian turmoil and strong dollar .The global oils and petrochemcials, plastics, fibers feedstock's and products have been dropped to ten years low due to Asian demand slow down and currency depreciation. It continued to suffered by soaring oil prices to 37 resulted heavy loss. in the post crisis recovery

Post mergers OSA: The Cross continent mergers involved different cultural background and management concept may reduce some manpower costs in the immediate future, However, It still requires this authors over 30 years experiences in implementing quality, cost, market shares goal, mission, performance oriented cross functional pizza chart OSA strategic and execu tion OSA teams for US, European, Asian Pacific multinationals provide unified manage ment concept, procedures and decision methods supporting new corporate restructuring, reengineer ring efforts to reduce feedstock, inventory costs and process efficiency improvement with expanded market shares.
Stock investment strategy: but both have to face the increasing competition in the oils petroch micals industry. BPAMOCO will be traded between 47and 55,
Finance group mega merger Citigroup of Traveler caought in Russia crisis, stock plunged from 75 to 29 presented by this author on JP Morgan sponsored post EURO banking and finance integration and risk management strategy Nov. 26, 1998, Rome Italy

He warned banking finance industry mega merger emphasized on staff reduction benefit and diversification , ignored post merger integration improvement on risk management decision making resulted Citigroup, UBS billion dollar loss in Russian, and LTCM crisis.

He accurately predicted Chase 36 billion dollar merge JP Morgan will give all it's gain to 110, Chase plunge to 35
and JDSU 100 billion inflated high cost merger SDL will cause operating hardship , stocks will subject to 50-70 % plunged, JDSU plunged from 160 to 30, SDL from 400 to 100
Monetary Policy Impact on Global Capital Markets Prices, Investment Strategy
Monetary policy impact on global stock market indices cash and futures trading loses risks simulation:
Stock Index/Bond cash and future price = F (M2 money supply growth, interest rate, dollar exchange rate)
This relationship simulated last 20 years 40 daily international stock market stock indices, including normal and major crisis (under stress discontinuous data) with average error below 1.5 %. It predicted 1987 crash as FED raise fund rate 0.75 %: recent Nasdaq plunge form 5100 to 3000 as Fed 6 interest rate hike and 1995 Baring betting on the wrong side of Nikkei Index. And 1990 Nikkei crash from 38000 as Bank of Japan tightening the money supply growth from 13 % to 5 %
Global Asset Prices Simulation and Portfolio Investment Strategy(Two master hands controlling global stock prices)
This author have been successfully applying two master hands accurately tracking simulating, forecasts monetary policy impact on global daily global stocks index (right master hands controlling investor sentiments )and corporate earning ,hot stocks , IPO, ADR shares prices(left master hands controlling corporate stock performance) during the last 20 years in the boom and bust, burst cycle, These two master hands provide forward looking instantaneous dynamics simulation forecast, instead of?speculate on the past economic and corporate earning data?( 3 month behind) resulted overbought and oversold caused trillions dollars market loss
Over 30 million China, Taiwan government, banking, finance, corporate CEO, fund managers, analyst, traders, investors have been benefited by this author lecture on two master hands controlling global stocks prices to China's 12 cities , Taiwan TV, radio daily, weekly commentary , and workshops since 1987
Global Stock Index Simulation :The right master hand simulate last 20 years monetary policy impact on daily stock index

This right master hand pinpoint the risks of overheated investor sentiments (monetary policy tell you do not chase index when they are too hot, when every fundamental and technical analysts recommending bull market continue,, investors chasing ( the author warned on July 20 1998 Dow approaching 9500, is overheated for 20 % correction, Next day Greenspan warning on inflation and rate hike, drag Dow to 7500 and Jan 2000, Dr. Huang warned on www.sina.com and www.osawh.com that Nasdaq overheated for correction to 3000 , It plunge from 5100 to 3000 later

Global corporate earning, profit margin simulation (Left master hands)

Corporate margin/earning = F( Sales, Costs) = F (raw material, financial, labor costs, sale prices)=F (monetary policy, currency)
US refinery opera ting profit margin is very much depend on the crude oil cost, refining products gasoline, heating oil prices . the relation is shown on Chart the margin varies from 3 % 9 %

Global Corporate Stock Prices Simulation :
The left master hand simulate last 20 years monetary policy impact on daily industrial supply, demand, prices, profit margin: raw material, financial, labor costs, sales and unit prices, corporate earning, profit margin

global stock prices = F (Global stock index, corporate profit margin/earning)

The left master hand will tell you how monetary policy impact on the industrial sectors supply demand, prices corporate earning, profit margin stock prices decline is over, when everybody is selling ready for turnaround
Therefore combing right master hands( investors sentiment) and the left master (corporate performance) will accurately predicted last 20 years global stock prices (hot stocks, ADR, IPO)

Hi-tech IPO stock prices simulation = F( Nasdaq index, corporate or industry group earning)

These two master hand controlling IPO prices as well
For Internet stock index are related to US Fed money supply growth, interest rate and investor sentiment (Nasdaq index), as for individual internet IPO stock prices, they are related to the internet stock and Nasdaq index (investor sentiment in internet) and corporate revenue and earning outlook (depend on industry trend and regional economy.

Global ADR shares prices = F( Home country investor sentiment, listed country investor sentiment, stock earning, margin) = F ( home country stock index, US Nasdaq index, corporate earning)


Click here for Chinese edition °ê»Ú¸gÀÙ,ª÷¿Ä¥«³õ¦M¾÷­·ÀI±±¨î
Global Investment Banking, Crisis, Risk Management :Simulation of central bank monetary policy impact on growth, and daily interest rate, currency, commodity, stocks price stability 
On the job training for online trading in  Global Stocks indices future OSA simulation  forecasts
On the job training for online trading inGlobal  Currencies  future OSA simulation  forecasts
Weekend   OSA Journal   Global hot stocks Buy/Sell/Hold : top10 global IT, Biotech,  Old economy, most active shares   published   each Saturday review OSA for global economic impact on top corporate performance   English   Chinese
Central  bank Monetary, Economic, Finance Policy Analysis: for  growth, markets prices stability
Bubble Burst      USA      China   Hong Kong   Taiwan    Thailand   Japan    S. Korea    Singapore    India
EURO   Russia/E. Europe  Mexico     Brazil
Global  Procurement Strategy: Monetary policy simulation Saves billions dollar on oil, commodity costs
OSA improve venture capital, new economy profitability, while minimize investment risks
venture risks    IPO Prices Global ADR      Pre/post Merger acquisition performance, cost reduction   
Venture capital risks IPO Prices   Simulation   Global ADR    Pre/post Merger acquisition      Credit risk
simulation and control
Restructuring Pre/post merger Performance  process improvement   Procurement     Marketing    Training
 Monetary policy impact on Crude oil, global petrochemicals, plastics prices,  stock prices workshop
Banking/Finance Profit Improvement Workshop     Internet/Information Tech. Profit Improvement  Workshops
Global Asset Prices Simulation, Risk Management :Stocks, Bond, Commodity, Property Prices Simulation
Two master hands controling global Bull, Bear Markets?, Buy, Sell, Hold for global stocks in 2001
Right  hand simulate, control monetary policy impact on daily financial , commodity market sentiments
Left Hand : simulate, control cousumer business demand impact on industy, corporate earning, stock prices
Dr Huang has implemeted two master hand controlling global financial markets bull, bear market and for daily buy/ sell/ hold  decision one month ahead. He has lectured to 30 millions China, Taiwan, US Radio, TV audienced, workshops tracking last 20 years, accurately predicted the bull, bear, buy, sell/ hold decisions 
Global Banking, Financial Crisis Simulation, Forecasts, Risk Management
References:

click here for ASEAN,Taiwan, China, Hong Kong, Japan, Korea, US  Banking, Finance Industry Risks Regulation, Supervision  Real  Options  Risk simulation, Control and reform, restructuring, reengineering workshops program, schedules
Click for Dr. Warren Huang  speeches, research papers on OSA Methodology and Applications 1980- 2002
He  has been invited to speak to top 20 global financial crisis and risk management conferences since 1999
Click here for Dr. Warren Huang's recent  paper on "Monetary Policy Impact on Global Financial, BankingCrisis presented to Washington DC, Macao int'l central bank governors conference,   Taipei's Pacificfinance, and economic conference, Barcelona, Spain, European Finance Conference during Apr- June 1999

Click here for   OSA pioneer  Dr. Warren Huang  global experience

Click for Daily Global Interest rate, currency exchange simulation/Forecasts     Monetary Policy Impact on Current US slowdown, Asian, Russia, Brazil  Inflation/Deflation, Financial Crisis, Recovery Impact  on  Global  Interest Rate , Currency Rates Simulation :
          ASEAN   China/HK/Taiwan, Japan, Korea       Russia    South American
                  US    and Canada            European Union       UK and others

Click for   Daily Global stock markets prices simulation/Forecasts :  Monetary Policy Impact on US, Asian, Russia, Brazil  Inflation/Deflation, Financial Crisis Recovery    Corporate earning Stock markets Simulation :
        ASEAN Crisis     Asian Crisis        Russia Crisis      South American Crisis  
                US   and Canada      European Union        UK and others

click here for Taiwan, China, Hong Kong, Asian Banking, Finance Industry Risk  Management workshops
Click for A. Central bankers monetary, government   policy impact on global financial crisis,  risks simulation
Click for B. Global Financial Markets,  interest, currency  rate, bond, Prices Simulation Forecast.
Click for B. Global Commodities, financial derivatives, stock prices Risks Simulation, Forecasts.
Click for C. Financial Institution Credit  Risks simulation  ( bad loan )
Click  For D. Corporate operating environment Risks Simulation (rising raw material prices, slumping
products prices, new  products competition), corporate operating margin Simulation
Click for E. Emerging Financial Market Risks Simulations
F. Call/Put options and financial derivatives prices simulations and hedging risks minimization
Click for   Global Financial Crisis Impact on Commodity futures, Financial Derivatives, Hedging Fund Risks
Simulation : and minimization  :Find out how to use this website for  IBM stock prices and put/call simulation recommendation to make  sizable profits in the volatile risky markets 
Click  here for Hedging Fund Risk Management seminars for  global  bankers, financial institution, fund managers
Click for Global Financial Crisis Impact on Post merger/acquisition Performance Simulation :
Information Tech.         Biotech           Oils , Pechemicals,         Auto,     Finance
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Click here for Corporate risks management annual  memberships available  for global central bankers, financial institutions,hedging fund managers, investment banking Corporate CEO, CFO, financial, procurement, marketing manager,traders, investors, investment and risk management  decision supports and senior, entry level staff on the job training. 

Contact :     Whuang3928@aol.com   Fax : 1-510-524-4484(  San Francisco, USA)
                    Copyright 2002  www.osawh.com/ Dr. Warren Huang

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