Innovation in  Applied Financial Econometrics 
Proactive Structural VAR , GARCH-Granger co-Integration for Global Econometric,  Housing, Equities, Bond, Commodities  Futures and Derivatives Prices Market Forces Mechanism Simulation  Maximize Risks Adjusted Return   
        Warren Huang  OSA Global Strategic Management,  San Francisco, Cal, USA
           Joyce F. L. Zhang  Zhejiang Univ.   China
website:  www.osaglobalstrategicmanagement.com    email:   wh3928@yahoo.com,   osawhh@sina.com

Abstract:  Senior author Dr. Warren Huang's  25  years innovation in  proactive global financial engineering equities, bonds, housing, commodities asset prices  futures, derivatives prices theory and  strategic financial risk management decision analysis, banking, finance, SOE, multinationals, SME reform, derivatives accounting tracking, forecasts for corporate scandal early warning,  teaching and research experiences .
He warned Nov. 2003 on Euro-events  accurately predicted  Nov. 5, 2003 in Singapore ,Shanghai Euro-events conferencesSingapore http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/ photos 1,   lecture ppt  , Shanghai, Beijin Nov. 2003  Asian/China finance, capital Markets conferences,  www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm   and to China economists meeting Fudan University, Shanghai , Dec. over 2000 QFII/QDII executives, May 8, 15, 2004 to US Silicon Valley investors, radio station , and  www.osawh.com website that US , China housing bubbles pushed oil, commodity prices reaching 23 year high, inflation up 5 %, bond market slump in May 2004  Fed summer  rate hikes, China credit tightening,  continue into 2007, housing bubbles induced China stocks bubble 2006  and US housing prices bubble burst resulted loan default,  avoided trillion dollar bond, equities, derivative market loss made trillion dollar oil, commodity derivatives market profit.
He warned to Merril Lynch and HSBC managing directors, SVP in Beijin conference June 16, 2007  that US and global housing markets facing loan default risks due to betting on the wrong side of interest rates
He pioneered two master hands controlling global macroeconomics, finance, daily capital market commodities, financial  prices futures, derivatives, housing  prices ,bubbles  through thousands proactive, structural, dynamic causes and effect simulation ( through Artificial Intelligence, Neural net based  multivariate regression expert systems out of OSA  pioneer Dr. Warren Huang 35 years global financial markets  information knowledge based expert systems and developed, implemented thousands multivariate Artificial Intelligence, Neural net based regression real time dynamic simulators and directed Zhang to extend  to Proactive Structural VAR (vector multivariate auto regression ) EGARCH  with GARCH- Granger co-integration  causes ,effect,  tracking  in financial econometrics ), tracking  global central banks monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on last 20 years inflation, interest, rates, currency, commodity, oil , housing prices, bubbles, and default, stock indices ( Dow  Jones, Nasdaq,Sp, Shanghai A, Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 , Nikkei, Henseng, DAX)  from Nobel Prize Winner Engle's ARCH ) with correlation constant of 0.99 and maximum error less than 3 % and stocks, bond  futures prices,  integrating into Black-Schole derivatives prices equation, properties  prices, demand market forces mechanism for global financial, currency, asset bubble burst early warning. avoided betting on the wrong side of investment resulted trillion dollar loss and financial crisis..
These proactive, structural simulators providing innovations in financial  engineering  asset prices theory, decision tools, and applications , predicted years, months ahead of the emerging global economics and market trend for  US, China, Taiwan, global central banks reliable proactive-reactive macroeconomic control and banking, finance, capital markets  Basel II market, credit, operational risks in China A, B,  and Hong Kong blue, red chips, H China ADR, China Casdaq, Taiwan, US listed stocks and  bond, futures, derivatives, housing  markets prices value investing and risks hedging strategy ,innovations in structural finance products,  assets securitization prices  rational investment tools, avoided  markets speculation  on the business, economic news and technical charting , following the crowd ,  using current statistical, probabilistic capita market prices models (CAPM) chasing the market news, betting on the wrong side of decisions resulted trillion dollar market nonperformance loan loss.
These paper will describe innovation in model based data mining developing over 10 years global capital markets information knowledge base and proactive, structural China, Taiwan, US, global capital  stock futures, derivatives  market forces mechanism Operations Simulation Analysis (OSA) and investment strategy, risk hedging applications in structural financial products in asset securitizations
 Huang  has offered thousands lectures, workshops to China, Taiwan, US 15 cities TV, radio investors, CEO, CFO, hedging fund managers and China, US, Taiwan, Asian, European central banks governors, asset securitization, financial risk hedging , early warning management conferences, tracking daily results since 1990.

Keyword:  Proactive, Structural Asset prices Derivatives OSA  and GARCH Dynamic simulation, 
Innovation in Structural finance products:  China/global,  interest rate, currency, stocks, bond,  commodity futures,  derivatives, 20 industrial sectors 5000 assets, housing demand, nonperformance debt, equities, properties prices recovery and securitization market forces mechanism,  strategic hedging risk management
Presented to International Financial Engineering Risk Management, , Peking university, June 16, 2007, Beijing, with Prof. R. Engle giving Keynote speech

 friendly link to www.derivativesportal.org    of Eurex and IMC
Integrate last 20 years daily global macro, financial, industries, trade economics dynamic simulation into futures, derivatives market forces prices mechanism, forecast accurately month ahead major emerging price movement trend

OSA global strategic management , pioneer Dr. Warren Huang's  two master hands thousands structural dynamic simulation/ forecasts month ahead, controlling monetary, economic, fiscal, WTO policy impact on last 20 years China/ global economy, interest rates, currency, commodity, stock indices, 20 industrial sectors 5000 products demand, prices, profit margin, stock prices, futures, derivatives, prices, crisis, market, credit, operational risks , crisis, early warning / strategic structural hedging fund,  emerging market investment strategy and risk management  (OSA) /forecasts  provide the what, why, how and timing of risks hedging, stay ahead of the emerging macro economy, capital market asset prices  futures, options market prices movement trend, capitalize, maximize risks adjusted   return   in global crisis , avoided current major market players following the crowd, speculating on the business, economic news and probabilistic models based risk estimation resulted trillion dollar betting on the wrong side derivatives market loss. 
Thousands articles published to 78 countries , invited to speak to US, China, Taiwan, Asian, ECB, UK 24 central banks governors, financial risks hedging management, wealth management conferences, offered thousands lectures  and  investment workshops to China, US, Taiwan Asian 15 cities TV, radio 30 million  fund managers, individual, institutional investors tracking the results since 1985, Million global central banks, banking, finance, derivatives key market players executives visited his website www.osawh.com
OSA Global Strategic Simulation/Forecasts, Your most powerful daily predictive decision tools--

Hundred thousands integrated, global  structural, dynamics, deterministic proprietary model simulators first time 
 CLick for Sample OSA Simulation Charts tracking forecasts 1-3 month ahead monetary policy on daily
A. Consumer spending, Fed Fund rate, Dollar exchange rate impact on Dow Jones Index futures
B. Japan money supply growth, Yen exchange rate, Dow Jones impact on Tokyo Nikkei index  futures
C. EU  money supply growth, EURO exchange rate, Dow Jones impact on German DAX index  futures
D. Hong Kong money supply growth, interbank rate, Dow Jones impact on Henseng index  futures have been developed, implemented supporting the following  goal, mission, performance oriented  outsourcing strategic centers corporate/ memberships/ workshops   tailored to global government, enterprises, banking, finances enterprises  board members, think tank and executives in integrating into the global markets decision needs:
Predicted  3 months ahead last 20 years global currency,energy , financial crisis , 1994-96 and current China macro-economic control, soft-landing, 2000 US IT bubble bursts, 2001 recession and rate cut, current rate hikes...
  Strategic China Energy trade Finance conference and Strategic Risks Management workshop

Do not miss these billion dollar  global strategic  energy solution in fighting soaring energy, feedstock costs
Dr. Warren Huang will share with you his 30 years  hundreds multinational , SOE oils, gas energy financing project managers and consulting experiences in his  key note speech  and workshop for Asian Business Forum
 www.abf-asia.com/project/1733cc_PTIT.pdf   China oil, gas, LNG, LPG conference Feb 24-25, 2005, Beijin on
A. China Economic , energy policy reform, rates hike   impact on  oil, gas demand, prices and gas industry structures
B. Challenges, Opportunities, Risks, return in US/ China macroeconomic control impact on oil, natural gas, LNG, LPG and downstream demand, futures prices market forces mechanism and investments  risk adjusted return
C. Global / China oil, gas, LNG  Project financing operation, markets, credit, policy risks management, early warning systems  workshop
 including the causes, onset, spread, recovery, early warning of China/global energy crisis, supply bottleneck and policy, manufacturing energy conservation, de-bottlenecking 
or  reserve your full day in-house lectures and workshop by osawhh@citiz.net  :
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2 day workshop highlights 
Day one
Integrate last 20 years daily global macro, financial, industries, trade economics dynamic simulation into futures, derivatives ( Black-Schole formula) market forces prices mechanism, forecast accurately month ahead major emerging price movement trend  avoided current major market players following the crowd, speculating on the business, economic news and probabilistic models based risk estimation resulted trillion dollar market loss

China/global derivatives financial accounting law.
2005 Global economy,  inflation, interest rate, capital markets outlook  rate hike, oil prices impact OSA
A  Monetary, Economic , fiscal Policy , WTO impact on Greater China /Asian/ Global Economic Recovery : GDP,  Retails, Trade, unemployment, FDI:   China   Hong Kong   Taiwan  Singapore  US, Europe,  Russia  Japan,  Korea   
B. China/Global Monetary, Economic, Fiscal Policy, WTO Impact  on China/global stock indices derivatives prices ,
 China   Hong Kong   Taiwan  Singapore    US,  Europe,  Russia  Japan,    
. Inflation, Interest rates, government, corporate bond yield and fixed income derivatives prices forecasts risk hedging
. China state enterprises reform privatization and IPO performance, stock, derivatives pricing, hedging  strategy
·Corporate Governance, supervision, financial systems monitoring , stock  derivatives prices forecasts, off balance sheet derivatives accounting tracking  hedging  
·Banking, finance reform, IPO,  Securities, Banking, Insurance , regulation, supervision Basel II  risk early warning
  currency, credit, market risk simulation, hedging, plant equipment performance and syndicated loan, securitization
· Strategic Global/China QFII/DFII, for domestic and foreign US/ IPO and ADR, global equities markets listing pricing 
· Equity fund capital markets:  Shanghai, Shenzhen A,B ,Henseng , Blue chips, Red chips, H share, Taiwan  Japan, US, Russia,  global  indices futures,  derivatives  prices mechanism,  Forecasts, Hedging strategy
. RMB pricing mechanism , global currency market  futures, derivatives prices , forecasts, risk hedging
.Global biotech products, markets innovation, investors sentiment impact on IPO, stock, derivatives prices, risks  

Day Two  equities prices, futures, derivatives OSA /Forecasts, Basel II risks control

IT  post bubble recovery,  housing, auto, steel  bubbles demand, prices, earning, stocks derivatives prices, hedge fund 
.Oils, metals commodity futures, derivatives  prices, earning, stocks, derivatives  prices forecasts, hedging  risks.
· Shanghai, Shenzhen A, B  listed stocks  corporate earning, stock prices, China fund, derivatives risks hedging
.China/Global oils, petrochemical, early, stocks prices, mutual and hedge fund performance, investment strategy.
 China mutual fund  and global  mutual fund performance , investment and distribution strategy
 China /US /Global Strategic pre/post Mergers & Acquisitions, MBO performance, stock prices, investment strategy
· Assets ( Auto, credit cards ) and Mortgage Backed Asset Securitization, synthetic CDO credit  derivatives  prices,  defaults risks simulation
·China/US equities and properties housing bubble  wealth effect investment strategy simulation and risks management 
.China /US Debt, equities, money, energy, gold , index  mutual  fund performance, asset allocation risk management
. Causes, onset,  recovery, early warning of China/Asian financial, currency, asset bubble crisis and NPL loan assets
 China/US capital markets asset prices simulation, Basel II credit, markets, operational, interest rates risks simulation
early warning, predictive  control
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Who should attend:
Listed domestic, global multinationals, SOE, SME companies. IPO  board members, financial institution CEO, CFO, managing directors, asset,  hedge fund managers, banking, securities, insurance regulators, investment bankers, equities, currency, bond, commodity futures, trading managers, traders, investors.

Costs and Benefits: Dr. Huang’s round trip San Francisco Air fare, hotel plus lecture fee
workshop will tell you the what, why and how, timing to capitalize on trillion dollar investment opportunities, while avoided chasing the markets resulted trillion dollar loss.

Language:  Mandarin or English

 Reserve your  in-house workshops    osawhh@sina.com  ( Chinese)    or wh3928@yahoo.com   ( English )
 References:

     /黃華南博士版權所有  100 million copies Copyright 2006 over 72 countries www.osawh.com /Dr.Warren Huang

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