Proactive structural
Operations Simulation Analysis of Global credit derivatives swap spread provide
country macro economic unemployment, monetary policy, liquidity, interest rates, financial markets volatility, housing,
oil, energy, industries price bubbles, company
cash flow, earning specific impact
on CD, and CDS developed, implemented by
Dr/Prof Warren Huang picture
(黃華南博士),Pioneer, Proactive Structural
Commodity, Financial Futures, CDS Derivatives Pricing, Strategic Hedging
consultant for global government, banking, finance, SOE, HNW.
Founder OSA
received Ph.D, Chemical Engineering, Mathematics, NY Polytech,
He patented Operations Simulation Analysis (OSA) of global monetary, economic,
fiscal policy impact on daily interest rates, bond yield spread, CDS, currency,
housing, energy, commodities,20 industrial sectors
demand side, futures, MBS, CDO,CDS derivatives pricing, corporate supply
chain cost reduction, investment return performances, equities pricing
mechanism supporting credit, market, operational risks valuation. It boost
investors and corporate confidence, avoided trillion dollar loss by current
statistical financial models speculating, betting on the wrong side of
investments.
He predicted months, year ahead of last 30 years and current global daily global
housing, equities bond, commodity, asset prices bubble bursts resulted
banking, credit default, illiquidity,
financial crisis, recession impact on China/global currency, interest
rate, bond, commodities, energy, metals, US, China, Hong Kong stock indices,
component stocks, futures derivatives prices, optimal long-shorting hedging
strategy for 15 cities 30 million HNW, institutional investors.
He lectured global central bank governors policy, hedging strategy conferences, asset allocation ,
credit, market , operational risks management
He wrote thousands articles on economic, finance, investment journal and http://www.osawh.com/ ( 4 million visitors)
·
Cost and effect of the financial crisis on China forex derivatives markets –
by Dr. Warren Huang OSA
US, global housing bubble burst, resulted trillions dollar wealth loss, credit
, financial crisis and 4 Q GDP contraction
of -6.2 %, Fed rate cut to 0.25 % trade deficit at 39 billion, Japan GDP
plunged 12.5% , trade deficit soared to 7 billion, EURO trade deficit soared to
8 billion, GDP plunged 2 % while China export decline 25 % in Feb 2009, GDP
slowdown to 6.8 % ，rate cuts to 2 %, trade surplus plunged to
3.9 billion will provide support to RMB
in 6.7 – 6.95 and 1.75 trillion
currency forward and swap market.
Global recession lead to commodity, energy, metal price bubble burst, facing
deflation.
·
Will volatility and CDS become a new asset class soon
Yes, volatility has become an important asset class, comparable to fixed income
asset, with risk premium （CDS spread）quantify the crisis,
risks, uncertainty in volatility ( use SP 500 volatility index VIX) while fixed income use inflation for bond
yield quantify the uncertainty.
·
How liquid is the market?
Currently US provide 7 trillion cash infusion into banking, financial market,
with money supply growth up from 5 % to 11 %, while China Peoples Bank provide
2.6 trillion excess liquidity in Jan-Feb
2009,( 7.3 trillion in first half 2009) with money supply growth up from 16 to
28 with excessive liquidity in banking and financial market..
The banking and markets having excess liquidity, money are still stay in the
banking system, without go to the real economy to create consumer and business
demand due to global recession, soaring jobless rate.
·
Costs of hedging and shorting mechanisms
Integrating economic, industrial sectors demand side, price mechanism
fundamentals into market dynamic information, provide reliable forecast for
under pricing for long side and overpricing for hedging shorting mechanism,
strategy avoided betting on the wrong side of investments
·
Developing the local currency bond market – what role should
CDS play in the future?
Proactive structural
models tracking trade balance, interest rate spread, impact
on currency
movement and macroeconomic systemic risks impact on CDS, and its impact
on bond yield spread.
·
Reinstalling investor, corporate confidence
These proactive decision models, integrating macro, financial, industrial ,
trade economics into daily derivatives market pricing mechanism, provide the
what, why, how and timing of assets and derivatives pricing and associated
credit, market, operational risks in
investment ,will reinstalling investors confidence, avoided betting on the wrong
side resulted trillion dollar loss. And stimulate corporate users for raw
material supply chain procurement, inventory cost and maximize risks adjusted
investment return
·
Presented by Dr.
Warren Huang as panelist lecture to Deleverage finance, private fund
acquisition summit, Feb 25,26, 3009, Hong Kong and China Derivatives Market
Summit, Pudong, Shanghai China, March, 8, 2009
