Beware of  excessive liquidity, from stimulus, bailout resulted equities, oil, gold , commodity , housing , debt  asset price bubble burst due to China housing price bubble and inflation control , US debt crisis related downgrade and Asian exit strategy rate hike fighting inflation lead to weakness in business and consumer demand resulted double  dip recession, while complicated by excessive liquidity bubble resulted  global sovereign debt bubble burst crisis  from US downgrade, PIGS (Greece, Spain, UK, Portugee  se , Italy)) resulted commodity prices bubble lead to inflationary pressure and credit tightening in exit strategy.
2010- 2011  currency, oil, gasoline, heating oil, Natural gas prices forecast:
US dollar steady in current  narrow range against major currency  despite QE2, only appreciate against Asian currency with good trade surplus.
China RMB will stay  in narrow range 6.40- 6.50
Australia 0.95- 0.99, China RMB 6.4- 6.5, Singapore 1.20- 1.30  Taiwan NT 28.5- 30.5  Won 1055- 1200  Indonesia  8500- 9000  India 43.5- 45   Malaysia  3.00- 3.20   Thailand 28.5- 30
China credit tightening housing price bubble and inflation control,  in 2011 to reduce GDP from 12 % to 8 %, M2 money supply growth from 28 to 15 % in 2011 and US exit strategy fighting inflation in second half 2010 will cut oil demand and  lead to oil price peaking out in 2011
 Oil price will be peaking out 66- 86 after QE2 ended in 2011    3 Q  and 71- 89 in 4 Q   2011
Gasoline price will be   220- 270 in  3 Q, 190- 220 in 4Q , 2011
heating oil price will be 210- 270, 3 Q, 210- 230 in 4Q   2011
Natural   price will be rebound from3.5-4.50   3 Q, 5.0- 6.  in 4Q   2011
Gold price will be rebound from 1550- 1750 in 3 Q,  1500- 1750  in 4Q   2011
US dollar decline due to downgrade but   continued debt crisis in PIGS and UK  support US dollar  1.35- 1.45  EURO ,in 3 Q, 1.25- 1.42 in 4 Q   2011
and 1.55- 1.69   pound in   in 3, 4 Q 2011
US dollar 70- 80    3Q,  70- 76-   in   4 Q, 2011 due to Japan recovery, US double recession
China stable, consistant, gradual independent RMB policy  will lead RMB appreciate in 4 % range to 6.3- 6.45 against US dollar and basket of money ( US, Yen, EURO)
predicted Feb. March 2009 in Hong Kong , Pudong investment summit forum on Proactive Structural Dynamic Demand Side future, cash Oil Price Simulation :  US tax rebate in 2009 and China economic stimulus package US Sept. consumer confidence plunge to 38, ISM manufacturing purchaser index plunge to 43 and jobless rate to 6.1 % and Dow Jones plunged 40  % third quarter GDP contract 0.3 %core inflation up 2.9 %, warned, predict by me Sept. 2007 on this blog that US  housing slump continue , will entering double dip inflationary recession 3Q 2008 despite rate cuts, stimulus, bail out plan and extends into deeper recession contracting by 2 % in $Q 2008 and 1Q 2009,  resulted by  full impact o business, consumer spending decline due to 6.5 % jobless and 20 % housing slump, 40 % stocks market loss
  The real causes of current mortgage, debt,credit, financial crisis and double dip recession are due to poor financial, monetary policy decision modeling in asset pricing and  risks valuation mechanism, MBS, CDO , the burst of super housing, commodities asset price bubbles caused by 7 year longest expansive excessive money supply, easy credit policy .
Global central banks, financial markets financial decision still rely on 30 year old probabilistic, statistical Capital Market Asset Pricing (CAPM) and macroeconomic modeling, ignoring asset price impact on inflation and financial, housing , MBS, CDO prices.
Predicted by Dr. Warren Huang, pioneer of Proactive Global Asset Pricing Mechanism , June 2007 , Beijing, Wall Street Journal Economic, Market Beat
 Blog Aug.2007   and March 5, 2008 Pudong, China Fund World 2008 to 200 global top investment banking, fund managers that Global Housing price bubble burst, prices plunge 30 % into 2009, drag  global economy into recession and stocks bond, oil,  commodities, metals ,Derivative Asset Prices Bubbles Burst with 50 % Price Correction Cause Credit, Financial Crisis and Economic Recession, ( As Dow Jones, SP 500, NASDAQ drag global stock indices plunged more than 50 % into 2002 recession low ,( Dow Jones  after current consolidate in 8000- 9000 will test 7000, NASDAQ test 1250, S&P test 700 low, oil price plunged 50 % from 147 to 70，Gas oil from1300 to 700 , corn  from 800 to 350, cotton from 80 to 44 as global economy  enter deep recession by year  end, despite US 700 billion  and ECB 2.3 trillion bail out to stabilize credit crisis

details on www.osawh.com/Fedcrisab.htm  www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm www.osawh.com/commody.html www.osawh.com/centmaf.html

 Dr. Warren Huang (黃華南博士) Pioneer, proactive structural dynamic global inflation, macro economy, daily financial markets interest rates, currency, stock, bond, derivatives, housing, commodities, oil asset pricing and risks valuation markets fundamentals price mechanism, accurately warned on Wall Street Journal Market beat Blog Sept.19, 2007 and Mar 5, 2008 masterclass  workshop China fund world 2008, Pudong, China  to Goldman Sach managing directors JPM, UBS and 150 China QDII/QFII fund managers that  US Fed aggressive rate cuts drag dollar to 1.53-1.65 EURO, 95- 108 Yen, economic stimulus boost consumer spending on gasoline and jet fuel summer, demand, driving gasoline , heating oil to 415, oil price to 121-145, commodity price double, will peak out as US dollar rebound follow Fed ending rate cuts cycle , can not stop sub-prime crisis spreading, regional  housing price slump 30-50 %  and credit crisis, crunch crisis continue through  2009 drag economy into 2009 double dip  inflationary recession resulted trillion housing and stock market loss and US, global stock indices bear market  50 % , Dow Jones test  7000- 8000  NASDAQ PLUNGE testing  1250- 1500 and high fliers (GOOG, PTR, AAPL) , IT, retail stocks facing  correction,    with banking, finance, housing share price plunge 70- 90   %, dollar making to new low 90 Yen,   commodity prices doubled,  and bubble burst plunge 50 % in recession widening bond , CDS spread and failure in MBS/CDO, Bear Stearn 30 billion dollar MBS hedge fund and government steps rescue Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac bail out,  despite Fed rate cuts . He also warned top global QFII management on Peking  Univ June 2007 International Financial Engineering Conference that China overheated housing, stock market wealth gain resulted inflation over 8.7 % will lead to China Peoples Bank credit tightening to remove excessive liquidity, Banking housing, stock markets follow US housing price slump, recession, bear market correction, with Shanghai A testing  1800  through  early 2009  until economy softlanding
China is suffering from housing market overheating, with 300 % gain in housing prices still  up 3.5 % , FIXED investment , export growth and consumer spending still up 26 %, first 9 month GDP still up 9.9 %, CPI up 7 % despite  China peoples Bank 6  rate hikes, 16 bank deposit rat hike to 17.5 %. China need to further cut its M2 money supply growth  from 15 % to 12 % next year to achieve housing price cut of 30 %, CPI to 4 %, GDP to 8 % to achieve soft landing and start of bull market stock rally.
Comment to  Wall Street Journal Market Beat , Yahoo Finance Blog Aug 8, 2008  2008 11:26AM ; oil below 100 means trouble

Comment to Yahoo Finance June 29, 2008

I warned on Wall Street Market beat blog last Sept that Fed rate cut cuts can not stop housing price slump into summer 2008, drag economy into recession, stock into bear market

correction banking, finance share plunge 50-70 % and plunging dollar, economic stimulus package push soaring oil , commodity price in summer peak demand, resulted inflationary

recession will drag banking share further.

SP banking 50 % correction is just phase one correction, it may have some bear market rally, and then plunge ito phase 2 correction, 50-70 %, reflecting further housing market slump

resulted credit crisis and job cuts, stock market crashed impact on banking share performance

details on www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm   www.osawh.com/Fedcrisab.htm  www.osawh.com/recession.html  www.osawh.com/fund2008.htm
　

Comment by Warren Huang -Wall Street Journal Market Beat June 17, 2:30 pm

Comment by Warren Huang -Wall Street Journal Market Beat June 6,12:30 pm

Comment by Warren Huang -Wall Street Journal Market Beat May17, 2008   1.52pm and  osaglobalstrategicmanagement.com/ blog1 
Why oil price and oil stock lag

Comment by Warren Huang -Wall Street Journal Market Beat June 6,12:30 pm on oil price bubble impact on stock prices

US dollar outlook and its impact on industrial sectors  performance,  

Fed is pleasing every one in the Wall Street and global capital and housing markets by offering surprise half point cut, even Greenspan in 2001 dare not to  do it when the oil price was only 19 dollar and gold

price below 400.Dow Jones shot up 350 points heading for record 14000 again , certainly will boost the housing prices ( July housing price  already up 5 %),and It cut mortgage rate and lending cost by half point.

bail out the sub-prime rate reset cost, will  temporarily cut mortgage default rate ( according to my housing prices and default rate model) but it will led to dollar plunge  to new low 1.50, it will hit 1.60 sometime next

year.    Oil price already celebrating the rate cut, by shooting to 82.4 all time  high and heading for 85-100, gold already 735, shooting for 950  soybean heading for 1200  wheat to 990., eventually will  spread i

core inflation.

As Fed job only focus on inflation ( core inflation rate exclude energy and food price) and unemployment it ignore housing, stocks, commodities asset prices bubbles. But sooner or later, the current stocks price

will not be sustainable, start to  plunge, it will drag the housing prices, and led to more default, the burst of next housing bubble,  drag economic into  recession till 2008 summer ,can not be solved by any rate cuts

Greenspan was much luckier than Benanke, he could go ahead with full steam rate cut, but we will be facing inflationary recession bear market correction ahead     

 detail can be found on www.osawh.com/riskm.html
　

Dot miss Challenges and Investment opportunities, risks in 2008 09 China credit tightening US housing prices bubbles burst impact on inflationary recession S&P 500 index futures and component  stocks, fund, housing, energy,commodities markets outlook

Conducted by          :Dr. Warren Huang (黃華南博士),  Pioneer of Proactive Structural Real Time Economic, Capital Markets Operations Simulations Analysis (OSA)

Masterclass goal   Provide QFII / QDII fund managers the what, why, how and timing of China/Global fund ,Dow Jones indices and component stocks, market fundamental asset price mechanism, allocation strategy, forecast years, months ahead of the emerging, market trends, avoided trillions market loss, betting on the wrong side of investment.

Mission:               Implement Proactive, Structural Dynamic Greater China/Global Equities, Bond, Currency Commodities Futures, NASDAQ INDEX  long, short ETF fund  index  futures, component stocks Derivatives prices mechanism for online trading, arbitrage, housing prices, and   Optimal  Long-Short banking , finance strategy for index futures and component industries, component stock ETF fund  long short strategy  in 2008-09.

Session 1 Proactive Structural OSA  of  2008-09  China/Global  Economy, Finance, Capital Market Challenges, Opportunities
　

A.       Challenges and Risks:    Asian macroeconomic overheating, credit tightening, regulation, US credit crisis,  housing price slump , MBS/CDO widening loss, recessions, banking, finance, energy material sectors facing correction, credit default, equities, currency market risks and corporate scandals

B.       Opportunities: US banking, finance, capital markets reform for innovative financial products, markets for long short   NASDAQ INDEX  long, short ETF fund  arbitrage  mutual fund, Optimal Equities, Commodities, Housing, Bond , Currency Asset Pricing Mechanism OSA, allocation, performances, real time oil, commodity, financial futures, derivatives trading, arbitrage, hedge , pension fund  strategic wealth management

Session 2 Proactive Structural  (OSA)  hedging strategy integrate economic, sectors, business news, fundamentals into quantitative   NASDAQ INDEX  long, short ETF fund   performance models

A.    Monetary, economic policy impact on China/US/Global inflation, interest rate, and global currencies, oil , metals housing market prices mechanism  2008-09 forecast
B.  Monetary policy, housing prices, currencies speculation impact on  Dow Jones Index,  long, short ETF fund , US credit crisis impact on global financial markets,   price performances2008 forecasts for optimal QFII/QDII  long/short  hedging strategy  
                      
Session 3  Proactive Structural China/Global industrial sectors demand, price mechanism and   NASDAQ INDEX  long, short ETF fund   component industrial demand, pricing and corporate performance 2008-09  OSA  optimal long-short hedging strategy

A.      Macroeconomic and  housing prices excessive liquidity control policy, wealth effect impact on China/US/global national, regional housing demand, prices, mortgage default, banking, housing and construction  materials,  sector stock price performances,.
B.   US housing price slump , credit crisis  impact on US economic recession,  and China/global oil downstream, auto, IT sectors demand slowdown, stock prices performances and optimal long-short strategy

Session 4  Strategic governmen  NASDAQ INDEX  long, short ETF fund  QFII/QDII funds asset pricing,  allocation,optimal long-short strategy  risks early warning case studies

A.     Proactive structural strategy in banking finance, mortgage default impact write down forecast. , ultra  long/short financials
B.     NASDAQ INDEX  long, short ETF fund  prices and component  industrial sectors, stock prices forecast OSA, and ultra short   investment,  risks hedging.
.   

Proactive Structural global housing price bubble burst Operation Simulation Analysis Workshops Highlights: The what , why, how and timing of root causes, onset, recovery, early warning of

equities, housing, commodities bubble burst, mortgage credit, default , financial crisis, tracking financial systems stability regulation AB for ABS, CMBS, RMBS, CDO pooled asset

credit rating and REIT fund performance, default, global assets allocations, with 2008 forecast.
　

DO not miss the following full day proactive structural simulation , forecast of Ultra long short NASDAQ COMPONENTS STOCKS strategy of US major indices ETF and component stock price performance workshops
 
 GOOG                  overvalued, economic slowdown,  competition  300- 400
CSCO                        slow recovery                                                   15- 21
INTC                          high growth potential                                       12- 17
AMAT                         slowdown growth potential                             8- 12
MSFT                 antirust   slowdown in sales profit growth             18- 24
JAVASun Micro  slow recovery                                                        3- 5
Yahoo                      moderate recovery                                           8- 12
ORCL                ,      sharp competition                                             15- 18
AAPL(Apple)         Slowdown in profit growth                                   70- 110
DELL                    Slowdown in PC sales                                          8- 15-
 QCOM           Profit squeeze                                                            30- 45
QQQQ                                                                                                 25- 30
 
 OOptimal long- short of S &P 500  ETF               Optimal long-short of Dow Jones  ETF                    Optimal NASDAQ  ETF long short  strategy

5 Day China Macroeconomic, Housing , equities bubble control  and Default Crisis Early Warning Workshop
5 Day  Asian Macroeconomic, Housing , equities bubble control  and Default Crisis Early Warning Workshop
5 Day  US  Macroeconomic, Housing , equities bubble control  and Default Crisis Early Warning  Workshop
5 Day UK Macroeconomic , housing, equities price bubble burst simulation, control, defaults early warning  Workshop
5 Day EU  Macroeconomic , housing, equities price bubble burst simulation, control, defaults early warning  Workshop