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 Global Strategic Solution
20 yrs daily global  market tracking  Capital Market  Banking   e-Business   e-Government  Monetary Policy Asset Bubble Biotech/Healthcare  EMBA/CEO  Basel II Risk control  Competitive Pricing Strategy  Business Process Outsourcing  Strategic Alliance OSA  Strategic Sourcing  Strategic E-Procurement  Supply chain optimization Strategic Marketing Management   Integrated Strategic SRM/ERP/SCM/CRM /Logistics  4PL Logistics Integration Simulation    retail CRM optimization 
 

Be a global government strategic decision leader, capitalize on the emerging market trend, not follower in crisis.
www.osaglobalstrategicmanagement.com/govstrategy.html provide the latest innovation in government economic, finance, banking reform, technology, marketing , global trade, stay months ahead of the emerging market trend, integrating, optimizing economy, business process, into technology innovation  achieve sustainable profit , market share growth without job cuts.
 www.abf-asia.com/project/1733cc_PTIT.pdf
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  China Energy Strategy:  Strategic China Energy trade Finance, Investment Strategy conference and Strategic Corporate Governance, Enterprises Energy Risks Management workshop
 
Don't Miss This lectures opportunities in China/global oils strategic corporate governance, enterprises risk management conference Nov. 17-18 Beijing, China World Hotel for China/Global oil upstream/downstream, banking, finance,  CEO ,CFO, board members, auditing and management teams, share holders ,investment, supply chain senior executives  proactive decision analysis training provide the latest forecast of global/China oil upstream/downstream future, derivative prices, investment strategy.  
  "Proactive Strategic Corporate Governance and Enterprise Risk Management"  
 * Proactive structural models tracking, simulation of China/global oil, gas upstream/downstream futures, derivatives prices mechanism,  cost, financial, derivatives accounting.
* Proactive structural models tracking  daily corporate operations and governance performance ,scandals risks early warning and training board members, management team, auditing teams meeting Sarbanes- Oxley compliances
* Global strategic investment, joint ventures, M/A,  supply chain, Basel  II  global financial, energy  crisis, credit, market risks simulation, early warning, 
* Profit, market share, risks as goal, mission, performance  oriented strategic governance, risks OSA (Operations Simulation Analysis) team( CEO, CFO, board) and execution teams( managers) maximize corporate operations and governance transparency performances.
* Case studies: US Mobil, Enron, Taiwan Chinese, China Aviation Oils

Dr. Warren Huang     BIO Dr. Huang has 30 years experience in  development, implementation  of proactive strategic structural simulators tracking for
 Mobil, Phillips Petroleum,  SINOPEC , Asian Consulting.   He predicted  last 20 years emerging market trend of global  oil, gas upstream/downstream futures,
derivatives , listed stock prices,  financial, energy crisis, corporate  scandals early warning for investment, supply  chain, marketing strategy for multinationals, SOE
board members, executives training . He spoke to global central banks governors, risk management conferences wrote 35 articles for US  Oil & Gas Journal,
Hydrocarbon Processing , Advanced Process  Control , Information System Handbook 1991-2005. Millions global executives visited his website www.osawh.com/hp2001h.html .> reserve your in-house workshop Oct- Nov, 2005, your office : osawhh@yahoo.com.cn/   wh3928@yahoo.com Do not miss Dr. Warren Huang Lecture on

Strategic Basel II Risks OSA early warning maximize risks adjusted return

for   Basel II Capital Requirement, Risk Management conference sponsored by Asian Strategy Leadership Institute, Singapore, Apr. 25-26 for China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Japan, Korea, ASEAN countries banking, finance senior risks, planning management, fund managers ( Dr. Huang offered thousands lectures to China, Taiwan, US TV, radio station 30 million investors, hundreds risk management workshops for hundreds banking, finance CEO, CFO , fund managers.
or reserve his full day in-house workshop email  wh3928@yahoo.com/ osawhh@sina.com
 in- house workshop Apr. 20- 23,  or Apr. 28-30 at your office
( he just offered on Feb 23 , Beijing to 70 China, Asian, US, European oil, gas, banking executives accurately:
Speaker Dr. Warren Huang accurately predicted on his Beijing Feb 23-25 workshop, keynote speeches, lectures that oil price will rise to 55 in March. and challenging 60 in spring, driving US China inflation and interest rate , bond yield up, stocks plunge.  soaring US trade deficit drag dollar and Oil price did soared to 55.2 on March 3, 58 on March 15, China Shanghai A retreat from 1320 to 1180, US Dow ones plunge 10980 to 10359, Nasdaq from 2100 to 1970, 10 yr bond yield soared from 4 % to 4.6 %..

Special announcement: As of March 31,  2005, all  www.osawh.com    global finance, capital   market forces mechanism simulation forecasts will be provide www.osaglobalstrategicmanagement.com/resources2.html 
 and www.osaglobalstrategicmanagement.com/oilgas.html   through its proactive structural dynamic OSA forecast provide weekly/monthly forecast, update, it accurately predicted Oil price soared to 60,  US trade deficit soared above 61, import prices up 1.5 %, US job creation peaking out in Feb , drop to 112000, industrial production slowdown, inventory built up drag Dow Jones, test 9750- 10300, Nasdaq test 1800- 1950
GS  after Dr. Huang prediction in April 5, speculation to 105 is based on feeling,  without market forces simulation Greenspan trying use market forces to cool down the prices to 56 is just co-incident.
based on Dr. Huang 30 year oil market market forces simulation tracing accurately daily prices movement since 1980, 1990 energy crisis, Greenspan only right about rising price cut demand, but forgot the  prime demand market forces from 49 trillion wealth effect out of housing, equities bubbles and weak dollar continue driving energy demand from construction metal, cement plastics 20 industrial sectors 5000 products etc beside just gasoline, heating oils.
Soaring Feb consumer spending, manufacturing demand definitely push oil price above 60, despite sufficient crude oil inventory, ( can easily consumed in the coming peak gasoline demand season ahead
 
Highlights:
* Structural dynamic simulation forecast of monetary, economic policy impact on daily global finance, capital markets asset prices Operation Simulation Analysis (OSA) avoided trillion dollar markets non-performance loan.
* Basel II Markets, Credit, Operational, interest rate, currency risks OSA forecast, risks early warning systems
* Corporate cost and financial accounting systems OSA tracking, governance scandal early warning, maximize
 transparency and performance.
*Cost, Profit, Risks, Market Shares as goal, mission, performance oriented  strategic (board members, senior executive , risk manager, auditing team) and execution ( junior executives, risk staff ) OSA teams tracking daily corporate performance and risks, maximize risk adjusted return
* Global/Asian equities, bond, oil, metals, commodity futures, derivatives prices, assets and mortgage backed securitization asset prices simulation, forecast, structural finance risks hedging OSA. minimize  Basel II  market risks.
* Risks OSA forecast , early warning, tracking, forecasts daily Basel II three pillars risk management requirement, minimize  capital adequacy  requirement in daily risks monitoring, reporting, measurement.
cost:  Dr. Huang San Francisco rt air fare, local hotel, lecture fee.

Don't Miss This Opportunities  
Breakthrough Innovation in Global central bank monetary policy, macroeconomic control,  economy, finance, capital market asset prices simulation, forecasts by thousands Proactive Structural Dynamic Simulation month ahead of last 20
years  emerging global finance, capital  stock, oil, gas, commodities futures market  bull/bear trend US, China rate hike, asset bubble impact on Global Oil, Gas, and downstream Demand, Futures Prices, Derivatives , corporate profit margin, stock prices and associated asset bubble burst risks with 2005  forecasts, Join Dr. Warren Huang's Beijin  pre-conference workshop or his post conference in-house workshop, get  first hand information and OSA  proactive models simulation methodology and forecasts, will  use www.osawh.com and www.osawh.com/riskm.html, and oil, gas price forecast : www.osawh.com/oilpetpri.html  and  www.osawh.com/hp2001h.html  materials as lectures contents  *( presented to 24 global central banks, financial risk management conferences and visited by millions global banks, banking, finance, 1600 multinationals oil, gas CEO, executives from 78 countries and lectures China, Taiwan, US 15 cities ( Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guanzhou, Taipei, Sna Francisco ) 30 million TV, radio investors, fund managers, hundreds banking, securities, insurance companies CEO, CFO, fund managers, risks, supply chain procurement, marketing managers since 1985, published thousands Chinese articles 100 million copies on China, Taiwan, US newspapers, investment, economic, finance journals.
Dr. Warren Huang will share with you his 30 years  hundreds multinational , SOE oils, gas energy financing project managers and consulting experiences in his  key note speech  and workshop for Asian Business Forum
 www.abf-asia.com/project/1733cc_PTIT.pdf   China oil, gas, LNG, LPG conference Feb 24-25, 2005, Beijin on
A. China Economic , energy policy reform, rates hike   impact on  oil, gas demand, prices and gas industry structures
B. Challenges, Opportunities, Risks, return in US/ China macroeconomic control impact on oil, natural gas, LNG, LPG and downstream demand, futures prices market forces mechanism and investments  risk adjusted return in investment banking M/A, IPO performance.
C.Global / China oil, gas, LNG  Project financing operation, markets, credit, policy risks management, early warning systems  workshop
 including the causes, onset, spread, recovery, early warning of China/global energy crisis,supply bottleneck and policy, manufacturing energy conservation, de-bottlenecking 
or  reserve your full day in-house lectures and workshop by osawhh@citiz.net  :
The only and most reliable structural dynamic deterministic decision simulators tracking, forecasts months ahead last 20 years global economic, financial crisis, asset bubble, and daily capital market asset prices avoided trillion dollar market loss due to current probabilistic models based capital market asset prices and risks models ( CAPM ), presented to US, European, China, Taiwan , Asian central bank governors, financial risks and wealth  management conference

5 Day Global Interest Rates, Bond Yield, Oil, Gold, Metals, Downstream Stocks, Currency Futures, Option Prices Mechanism Simulation  2005 Forecast Workshop
5 Day Global Interest Rates, Bond Yield, Stock Indices, Currency Futures, Option Prices Mechanism Simulation , Index, Debt Fund Asset Allocation Strategy  2005 Forecast Workshop

30 years helping 78 countries multinationals oils and downstream fighting soaring oil, feedstock cost, maximizing sustainable profits and market shares.

Global Economy growth and price stability Guidance and Control:  Policy Impact Simulation  Workshops

 Predicted  3 months ahead last 20 years global currency, energy , financial crisis , 1994-96 and current China macro-economic control, soft-landing, 2000 US IT bubble bursts, 2001 recession and rate cut, current rate hikes...  t

 US Economy inflation control, Capital Markets Asset Prices, Bubble Simulation, Forecasts  early warning  :
Beat Todays Markets  Interest rate/bond   stock indice future   Forex Currency futures Strategic ETF  US hot stocks ,  Global ADR  US banks-finance Oil, Gas Price  Info-100  Silicon -100  Weekend Edition   IPO pricing  profit early warning  Commodity Futures Oil/energy futures  Gold/metal futures  Housing Bubble Basel II credit risks  market risks
operational risks control  Knowledge Management
 Asian Economy/Capital Markets  Asian Financial Crisis  Japan  China  Korea  Taiwan  Singapore   Hong Kong   India   Malaysia
China Economy Macroeconomic Control, Capital Markets early warning forecasts
 Monetary policy impact on macroeconomic control, Asset Prices, Bubble Simulation, early warning  :
 Shanghai/Shenzhen A/B/IPO China small cap China ADR  China mutual fund/ commodity/ bond  Hong Kong H  Red Chips  NPL Asset Management   QFII/QDII strategy  Supply Chain Logistics   Housing Bubble  
Strategic OSA maximize China oil/petrochemical upstream/downstream profit workshops ( Beijin workshop)
Strategic Wealth Management  Value Investing Asset Prices bubbles  Strategic ETF  Dynamic Asset  allocation
interest rate/bond yield  Beat stock indice future   Beat Forex Currency   Commodity Futures Oil/energy futures  Gold/metal futures    Beat Global ADR Market  Risks Hedging Strategy Venture Capital Risks control
Structured Financial Engineering   Asset securitization  Syndicated Loan  Basel II Risk control
Strategic Investment Banking:  strategic IPO,  pre/post  merger/acquisition performance    Optimization Adaptive enterprises Change Management Basel II Risk control
Economic Systems Simulation: Monetary macroeconomic policy  Industrial finance  Industrial Economy  Regional Economy  Investment banking, Capital Markets Asset Prices, Global Trade Economics
Government, Business Process Simulation: Globalization Strategy  e-Gov  reform strategy   Banking/Finance Reform  Enterprise Reform e-Biz Strategy  OSA models   Process Improvement  Business Process Optimization Global Strategic Solution Consulting   Corporate Governance  Global Crisis OSA Risk Management  Basel II Risk control
 Adaptives e-Learning-Education    Breakthrough leadership/strategy CEO workshop  Breakthrough Venture capital strategy CEO workshop Rose vegetable Garden  Commodity futures   WTO, import/export pricing
Feedback   Annual Memberships Strategic Out-Sourcing Centers  Human resources OSA teamsw

=============================================================================================
 Announcement  :OSA  country web pages assistant editor and marketing opportunities 
OSA will expand 40 countries web pages content in local language and English domain  in 2005, looking for
A. Assistant editors for all areas, current college student of all majors, interested to be training by our e-Learning mission
 impossible, develop  your country information knowledge base, web contents, you will be co-author with Dr. Huang to present your results in local , international conferences, for future graduate  scholarship, job application credit references
B. Marketing agent: Local country web pages design,  domain, boosting traffic and workshops marketing, some experience required   
C. Strategic alliance partner, profit sharing partner
      Contact  osawhh@citiz.net  in  Chinese  wh3928@yahoo.com  in English

OSA Global Strategic Simulation/Forecasts, Your most powerful daily predictive decision tools

Predicted  3 months ahead last 20 years global currency, 1980, 1990, 2000 energy , financial crisis , 1994-96 and current China macro-economic control, soft-landing, 2000 US IT bubble bursts, 2001 recession and rate cut, current rate hikes...
 Dr. Warren Huang CV pioneered   thousand structural dynamic simulators  helping US, Taiwan, China, Singapore, Asian countries 30 years strategic knowledge economy and market economic market forces prices mechanism simulation forecasts maximize macroeconomic controls, R&D innovation global competitiveness
He.  accurately predicted  Nov. 5, 2003 in Singapore ,Shanghai Euro-events conferencesSingapore http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/ photos 1, 2, 3 lecture ppt  , Shanghai, Beijin Nov. 2003  Asian/China finance, capital Markets conferences,  www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm   picture  2  and to China economists meeting Fudan University, Shanghai , Dec. 2003 over 2000 QFII/QDII executives, May 8, 15, 2004 to US Silicon Valley investors, radio station , and  www.osawh.com website that excessive rate and tax cuts resulted manufacturing and consumer demand pushing US Oil prices  soared above 50, metals  prices reaching 23 year high drive 5000 downstream products prices and inflation up, will follow economic recovery in the second half of  2004 and not transitory .  weak dollar due  to soaring trade deficit, ( 55.3 billion  for June, 50 for July ) will drive  inflation up 5 %, bond market slump in May till the end of 2004  job creation, productivity, profit growth peaking out  in the second quarter 2004 Fed June, Aug  , Sept 0.25 % rate hikes China credit tightening, will follow US rate hike in 2004, global economy facing inflationary slowdown ( second half US GDP below 3 %) and followed by stagflation next year with  stocks entering bear market consolidation, with 30- 50 % correction Global IPO  will facing 30-50 % correction  as Google will  plunged from 185 to 60-80, any attempt using IPO to speculate market rebound will be followed by sell off bear trap , avoided trillion dollar bond, equities, derivative market loss made trillion dollar oil, commodity derivatives market profit.
 
US macroeconomic, inflation control  tracking, 2005 forecasts:
Dr. Huang spoke to Euro-events Singapore , Shanghai, Beijin Nov.  2003  Asian/China Finance, Capital Markets conferences lecture to 2000 QFII, QDII mutual fund managers and  China Economist annual meeting Dec. 20 and San Francisco Silicon Valley finance radio and global finance investment seminar May7,  8, 15,2004 and   www.osawh.com   website  warning  global central banks excessive rate, tax cuts, ignoring Dr. Huang's warning on this website and global conferences, underestimated global economic recovery resulted inflation,  excessive demand for housing, manufacturing, auto pushed oil, metal constructional materials prices to new high and rising cost, prices to 5000 upstream /downstream raw materials, products  due to US  excessive rate, tax cuts, Fed raising rate , too little, too late , China delaying  rate hike to effectively cut market demand led to China Sept.  2004 CPI inflation up 5.2 % again and third quarter GDP growth still at 9.1 % due to increasing   business ( up 28 %)and consumer demand up 14 % ,will facing soaring inflation  from current 5.3 % to 6.6 %, US will facing inflation soared to 5 % in winter peaking holiday demand season .  US Greenspan, global economists,  market analysts over optimistic  over oil, commodity weakness and underestimate inflationary pressure  and 10 yr. bond yield too low , long interest rate has to go up to 5 % in the month ahead due to excessive business and consumer spending twin growth engine will drive second half 2004  and 2005 economic recovery, profit growth, bull market rally, Oct job creation of 337000, will repeating March ,, 2004 , 2005 growth will be below 112,000 , peaking out as entering peak holiday season,  underestimated on the impact of US dollar depreciation, excessive rate, tax cuts , 48 trillion dollar  housing, equities wealth effect resulted excessive consumer, business demand, NAPM peaking out in the second quarter at 66 ( already plunged to 56 as predicted ) driving soaring oil, commodities, metals asset prices bubble reaching 23 year high in March, May  and extending into the rest of  2004 and repeating in 2005 with  US trade deficit soared to  55- 60  billion and inflation, facing credit tightening, rate hikes after May, Aug. Sept , Nov 2004 and extending well into summer 2005, profit , productivity growth , consumer confidence , business spending,  peaking out,  economic leading indicators declined for 6 months ,business  facing profit  squeeze in  second half  2004, China and US, Global stocks bull markets are over, entering bear market consolidation.   US High tech, finance, housing, retails, auto share will give up  all its 2004 gain plunge  30-50 % and  trillion dollar loss in bond and stock markets repeating 1995 and 2000  and trillion dollar profits in oil, commodity futures investments
US inflation rate at  3.2 % in 2004, with business  spending up 14 %, consumer confidence above 100 ISM at 66 are inflationary, facing excessive inventory built up,  oil, soared to 56 currently consolidate in 47-50  cold winter will drive heating oil,  and oil price rebound to 55-60  gas to 9.0 and metals to  new high  in summer 2005  will drive up 20 sectors 5000 products costs and prices, inflation will be back to 3.5 % in spring, more rate hikes are on its way to cool off the economy, 10 year bond yield is too low, will return to 4.3- 5.0 %
Wall Street Market Research OSA Market Tracking, Forecasts: Global Capital Markets Asset prices tracking, forecasts:
Dr. Huang lectured to 50 European, Asian, Malaysian central banks, banking, finance executives Kuala Lumpur, Sept. 30, 2002 predicted that oil prices soared to 43, Dow Jones retest 7500 Nasdaq 1250, March 2003 on Asian Business Forum.   He lectured Nov. 2003 lectured to Euro-events Singapore http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/ photos 1, 2, 3 lecture ppt  , Shanghai, Beijin Nov. Asian/China finance, capital Markets conferences,  www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm2003   picture  2  and to China economists meeting Fudan University, Shanghai , Dec. over 2000 QFII/QDII executives, identify housing, equities wealth effect bubbles   month ahead, investment opportunities in China petrochemical upstream/downstream, steel, aluminum, telecommunications ADR , Shanghai A and Hong Kong H shares, mutual fund up 80 %  IPO shares up 150 % and early warning for asset bubbles in oil, commodities prices reaching 23  year peak( recommended invested in future, derivatives gained 5000 %) in March 2004, will drive China CPI to 5 %, with steel, cement over-invested 170 % and energy shortage will lead to further credit tightening, accurately predicted China Peoples bank raise bank reserve ratio 0.5 % to 7.5 % open market inter-bank rate (Chibor)must stay above 3.% to remove 110 billion from the capital markets,  US CPI to 5.1 %, core inflation to 2.7 % in the summer , overoptimistic over US economic recovery and job creation,( despite March strong 300,000  new jobs can not sustainable after June quarter tax rebate is over ( June job creation already down to 32,000) and  inflation outlook may lead to rate hike after May and summer lead to serious bond market plunge (US lose  380 billion dollar, China lose 270 billion) housing bubble repeat 1995 bond market crash and 2000 election bubble and global IT and blue chips banking shares will peaking out   facing  correction in the month ahead,  
 2005 Oil, commodity prices forecast
 Market speculators using Oil prices plunged from 55 to 40 and back to 56, and Intel profit , over-optimistic outlook, Apple profit up 70 % due to i-Pod new product innovation Dell 29 % profit gain to push Dell and High tech, and  IBM PC sale to China, Oracle PeopleSoft 10 billion dollar merger facing margin squeeze and Sprint Nextel 35 billion dollar merger all facing sharp competition, to speculate blue chips and Nasdaq will give up all its recent gain is premature ,oil price  rebound to 55 in March accurately predict by Dr. Huang in Beijing Feb 23, 2005 will challenge 60 due to OPEC one million production cut and winter and summer peak demand, and challenge 55- 60 in summer 2005.
2005 High tech stock performance forecasts
US and global IT ( from chips, PC, to telecommunication, entertaining) demand growth will be slow down to 6 % , facing profit squeeze, stock prices retreat 30 -50 %, with China internet stocks bubble burst, plunge 70- 80 % . Dell profit decline continue,  facing profit squeeze, pricing cutting from HP, Apple sales and general economic slowdown, Dell stock will plunge below 35, IBM test 85. HP profit, stock prices continue drag by PC operation (as warned by Dr. Huang on this website) speculating on HP CEO change will not improve near term profit, stock performance, only smart PC can lead to breakthrough.  Global IPO  will facing 30-50 % correction  as   Google enjoyed 7 fold earning increase, it has PE of 145, and profit margin of only 12 %, stock price at 215 is extremely overpriced, repeating Yahoo of 2000, will  plunged from 215 to 100-120, any attempt using IPO and  PG and Gillette merger to speculate market rebound will be followed by sell off bear trap   avoided trillion dollar bond, equities, derivative market loss made trillion dollar oil, commodity derivatives market profit.
US  dollar weakness continue in 2005:  Soaring import leading to record US trade deficit of 655 billion in summer will  drag US dollar into new low continue into this year Euro : 1.29- 1.45 , Yen 95- 102, 
Global stocks bear market correction into 2005, give up most of 2004 gain
 US, Asian and European stocks  follow US stocks  rebound currently will gave up all this year gain  China and US economic slowdown will drag global economic growth, stocks  ( including IPO )facing  30-50 % bear market  correction consolidation   Dow will be traded 9750- 10900, Nasdaq  1750- 2100 , S&P 1060-1200, US 10 year bond yield will be back to 4.4- 4.9 in March 2005. Taiwan index post election bubble burst from 7200 to  5000- 6100, Henseng 12500- 14200, Nikkei 10000- 11900, China credit tightening continue. Shanghai A 1150- 1300, Shenzhen 2750- 3350,  consolidation Hundred thousands integrated, global  structural, dynamics, deterministic proprietary model simulators first time 
 China Macroeconomic control tracking, forecasts: China started second phase credit tightening, rate hike series begin.
China finally raised prime rate by 0.27, to cool off the asset bubble, with structural rate hike, floating loan upper limit from  5.6- 12.5 %, Oct. 28, 2004, accurately  predicted by  Dr. Huang last Nov. 2003 in Euro-events Singapore, Shanghai, Beijing, Asian/China finance, capital market conference and May 8, 15, 2004 to San Francisco Silicon Valley Finance radio and Global Finance Forum, Hi tech investment seminar, Silicon Valley and on this website, visited by million global central banks, banking, finance, corporate executives.
Global central banks ignoring Dr. Huang's warning on this website and global conferences, underestimated global economic recovery resulted inflation, demand for housing, manufacturing, auto pushed oil, metal prices to new high and rising cost, prices to 5000 upstream /downstream raw materials, products resulted US Fed raising rate , too little, too late, China delaying  rate hike to effectively cut market demand led to China Sept.  CPI inflation up 5.2 % again and 2004 GDP growth still at 9.4 % due to increasing   business ( up 28 %)and consumer demand up 14 % ,will facing soaring inflation  from current 3.9 % to 5.6 % in winter peaking holiday demand season and summer 2005.   Despite  China Peoples Bank raised deposit ratio by 1.5 % and cutting capital investment in steel, cement, aluminum, auto loan lead to  some progress macroeconomic control with Sept. money supply growth at 13.6 % (below 17 % target), auto sales up only  10 %, asset prices, inflation  followed soaring oil price to 55,  all time high metal prices   coastal cities Beijin, Shanghai GDP up 14 %) from year ago, wealth effect, FDI drive national  housing prices up 14.8 % ( 2750 ) and 38 % for coastal cities Shanghai, Ninbo,, Guanzhou .  retail sale up 13.2, China 2004 GDP up 9.2 % far above 7 % target, medium, long term loan up 25.4  %, inflation up 4 % . China economy  is far from soft landing, will have very tough year to cut domestic demand and GDP below 8 % and  call the need for further  interest rate hike in summer and raise deposit reserve ratio   to cool off the consumer and housing demand in winter holiday peak and summer  season .  As. China Peoples bank issue 100 billion notes to cut 100 billion from the money market avoid overheated Chinese New Year demand further drive up inflation.  soaring China, US demand pushing China steel, cement, aluminum investment (over 120 %), coal, energy shortage,  stocks prices  rebound from 1250  to 1470 speculating over Premier's  915 statement over stock market stability is overheated ( accurately predicted by Dr. Huang on this website and already retreat to 1150) market is over, continue bear market technical rebound ( within 20 %  and consolidation, with Shanghai A testing 1150- 1300, IPO and newly listed small cap shares plunge 30-50 % with most testing its IPO price, low prices blue chips shares like Sinopec, Unicom will lead future rebound 20  %. , This supply side tightening are insufficient to cool  the uneven economic overheating,  as China raised key interest rate by 0.27 % and  implement  structural  rate hikes in late Oct. as predicted by Dr. Huang to cut off excessive consumer , business demand in housing, construction materials, auto and retails  demand . to cool off soaring housing and metals prices,  and  serious energy , electricity , coal shortage, and transportation, communication bottleneck. 
China benefited by lower food price, Jan CPI drop to 1.9 %  from Oct. 5.2 %, however rising heating oil, gas , coal, water, service charge ( oil prices will rebound 55 and feedstock price, falling dollar will push US and global inflation  in the winter heating demand drive China Feb inflation to 3.9 %
China has hard time  achieve soft landing in the second half 2005, as China Peoples Bank has to cut money supply growth below 10 % and GDP below 8 %. and fixed investment growth below 15 %  Dr. Huang also predicted  Oct. 1994 to China Wuhan securities news, Wangguo,  Kuotai  securities investors, BeijingChina Financial Times, China macroeconomic control will be soft-landing 1996, Shanghai A will be traded  between 600- 800 during 1994- 1996 He recommended that China stocks will be very attractive to QFII in the new Millennium
Global central banks, economist, financial market , industrial sectors analysts, CEO  ignoring ,Dr. Huang photo  warning to ECB, JP Morgan in Rome, China Peoples Bank governor Dai central bank governors conference in Macao, Taiwan central bank governor Asian Pacific conference Taipei, APEC finance Thailand prime minister, ASEAN central bank governors conferences in Bangkok, US Fed  governors , Washington Area, NASD finance conferences 1998-2000 on  IT asset bubble bursts
 Hundred thousands integrated, global  structural, dynamics, deterministic proprietary model simulators first time 
 CLick for Sample OSA Simulation Charts tracking forecasts 1-3 month ahead monetary policy on daily
A. Consumer spending, Fed Fund rate, Dollar exchange rate impact on Dow Jones Index
B. Japan money supply growth, Yen exchange rate, Dow Jones impact on Tokyo Nikkei index
C. EU  money supply growth, EURO exchange rate, Dow Jones impact on German DAX index
D. Hong Kong money supply growth, interbank rate, Dow Jones impact on Henseng index have been developed, implemented supporting the following  goal, mission, performance oriented  outsourcing strategic centers corporate/ memberships/ workshops   tailored to global government, enterprises, banking, finances enterprises  board members, think tank and executives in integrating into the global markets decision needs:Global stocks bear market correction into 2005, give up most of 2004 gain
 US, Asian and European stocks  follow US stocks  rebound currently will gave up all this year gain  China and US economic slowdown will drag global economic growth, stocks  ( including IPO )facing  30-50 % bear market  correction consolidation   Dow will be traded 9550- 10800, Nasdaq  1750- 2100 , S&P 1060-1200, US 10 year bond yield will be back to 4.1- 4.8 in March 2005. Taiwan index post election bubble burst from 7200 to  5000- 6100, Henseng 11500- 13900, Nikkei 10000- 11900, China credit tightening continue. Shanghai A 1150- 1300, Shenzhen 2750- 3350,

Monetary,  Economic, Fiscal Policy, WTO  impact on Global  Economic, Business cycles, Asset, Wealth , Prices  bubbles burst, oil, energy , Currency crisis, recession FEED FORWARD ( predicted 3-6 month ahead) SUSTAINABLE GROWTH AND ASSET PRICES STABILITY CONTROL Financial Markets Return, Asset Allocation, Strategic Risks OSA (RIGHT  HAND )  
Structural, Dynamics simulation of Monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on last 20 years global macro economic, business cycles, capital market asset prices, bubbles , financial crisis, boom and busts achieving growth and prices stability control predicted 1- 3 month ahead,  Global/ Asian financial crisis since 1980 and 2000 high tech bubble burst and 2001-2003 global market crash and recovery :
Dr. Warren Huang HAS BEEN INVITED TO SPEAK TO 24 GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS GOVERNORS  CONFERENCE ( FRB, ECB, China Peoples Bank, Taiwan, Japan, Korea, Thailand, Asian ) since 1998 warned that Global high tech bubble burst will plunge 50-70 % and facing recession. He offered thousands lectures accurately predicted China Peoples Banks monetary policy impact on 1994-96 macro-economic control-soft landing on China daily stock markets to China 15 cities 30 million investors, national newspapers during 1994-1998 in China and again predicted China excessive money supply, housing bubble facing tightening Mar. 2003 Shanghai workshops

He accurately predicted rising interest rate, and huge trade surplus driving EURO to 1.30 new high, cutting EURO export, growth, profits, stocks  and trade surplus, eventually repeating 1991, forcing EURO to plunge.  ( ECB will leave rate unchange to take the pressure of EURO) excessive US  rate, tax cuts led to 19 year high commodity prices, soaring housing, stock prices , will raise interest rate by May, 2004, China will continue credit tightening, as confirmed by China People's bank Jan 5 to cut the money supply growth from 2003's to 17 % this year and 14- 15 % next  year and Greenspan indicated the need for rate hike  ASEAN countries will follow US rate hike, facing slowdown by yearend

USA    Australia  Asian  Canada  China   Hong Kong   Taiwan    Thailand   Japan  S. Korea   Singapore  Malaysia  Phillipines  Indonesia   Viet-Nan   India  UK/EURO  Russia/E. Europe    Mexico   Argentina  Brazil

 US and global markets   global capital markets investment strategic simulation tailored to your need . please email wh3928@yahoo.com for reservation
 Dr. Huang's two OSA master hands you are in good hands  for global central banks macro-economic control , prices stability and capital market prices simulation, forecasts , value investing strategy, mutual  fund  optimal asset allocation equities, bond, currency investment, portfolio management, wealth management,  risk hedging  tracking/forecasts month ahead  the root causes, onset, spread, recovery of Asian/Global financial crisis, asset bubble bursts lecture to 24 global central bank governors, wealth management, financial market risk management conferences and millions global central banks, banking, finance, corporate CEO, executives on this website  since 1998 ,  over 30 million China, Taiwan, Asian, US , ASEAN, European executives, investors on TV, radio programs and thousands workshops since 1985 predicted 2000- 2003  global IT stocks and mutual fund bubble burst and US global banking, old economy blue chips , Buffet Berkshire, big cap value stocks mutual fund plunged 50- 70 %  July 2001 to Beijin China Peoples Bank executives and on this website and predicted US and global stocks rebound March 2003 Dow Jones rebound from 7300 to 10,000, Nasdaq from 1200 to 2200 Japan Nikkei rebound from 7500 to 12000, , emerging market Taiwan, Russia index almost double and index mutual fund 80 % rebound on Kuala Lumpur Asset Securitization conference to 50 central bank, banking, finance, executives Sep , 2002 again in 2003 to Euro-events  Dr. Huang global strategic investment/risk management lecture/workshops tours  (covered thousands lectures, 46 countries since 1980 )
=========== North American China-US  investment seminar===========================
He  was the keynote speaker for Global Chinese Finance Forum investment seminar, May 8, 2004, San Francisco to speak on Strategic OSA maximize North American investors investment return in China-US business ventures.
 ===Strategic China QFII/QDII Capital Market, investment banking, asset management  workshops 2004=====
Thousands   causes and effect structural, dynamic proven predictive OSA simulators beat  daily money, capital, insurance, property markets ( published thousands articles, 30 million copies ( over 10 million readers ) for reliable tracking, forecasts 3 month ahead of last 20 years  central banks monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on global/China economy, daily capital market asset prices, bubble early warning, tailor to QFII/QDII  investment needs.
Dr. Huang two master hands accurately  predicted  last 20 years daily US interest rate, commodities, gold, oil prices daily capital market prices 4 month ahead and again at  Shanghai University of Finance, Economics, Oct. 25,  Euro-event  Singapore, Nov. 5,  2003 Asian Finance, capital market conference on  Monetary policy impact on Asian and China  economic outlook, asset prices, applying his two master hands ( interest rate and trade) currency market forces price mechanism, wrote 600 articles on trade journal, helping Taiwan central bank and 200,000 importer/exporters daily/weekly NT/  100 currencies ( US and cross rates) from NT fixed at 40 to float to 25- 40, covering Yen from 250 to 80 during 1985- 1995 and Asian financial crisis. He  warned  that any free float of RMB will  lead to China currency crisis and US runaway inflation import consumer goods will up 50 % to double) and  repeat past global financial crisis, bubble burst. Only Dr. Huang's two master hands ( interest rate and trade, economic policy ) market forces price mechanism guide through RMB gradual ( starting with 5 % band)  widening trading band is the best approach, regardless peg to the dollar or a basket of currency   
 ============= Special  Strategic Wealth Management/workshops  Announcement ======
OSA pioneer Dr. Warren Huang will offer full day Structural Strategic Wealth Management and Risks Hedging
  He will speak on Global strategic wealth management , asset allocation, and risk  early warning, hedging , introducing thousands strategic investment simulators predicted 3 month ahead  on global financial crisis, asset, wealth bubble burst, avoided trillion dollar market, wealth loss for 30 million China, Taiwan, Asian, US, European investors, VIP traders, money managers since 1985 
Profile/Founder  Dr. Warren Huang CV, Pioneer of two master hands controlling Global economic cycles and Capital Markets Asset Prices Mechanism, Market Forces, wealth effect ,Bubble Burst Risks Simulation, Financial Crisis early warning and  Global Strategic Knowledge Based Strategic Government, Business Process Demand Forecasts OSA Optimization Operations Simulation Analysis OSA  has  30 years development, implementation of government, banking, finance  Information Knowledge based customized in-house global leadership breakthrough in strategic proactive investment, marketing,  supply chain logistics , combining the best of West (US  Mobil, AMOCO, Phillips Petroleum, Bechtel, Fluor, Bailey network controls headquarters  working experience) and East (China , Taiwan, Japan, Korea, ASEAN state , SME, banking, finance consulting, 30 million CEO/CFO, executives investors training workshops ) workshops . He conducted teaching, research at Taiwan, Tsinghua, Tunghai University in Taiwan and China's Peking, Tsinghua, Fudan, Jiaotung, Zechian, Dalian, Hua-zhon Science & Tech , Chunqing Universities on Chemical Engineering Process Design, Simulation, Control,
Economic Management, MIS, EMBA/CFA, Financial Engineering integrating theory into practice providing dynamic  tracking  global  economics market forces, manufacturing, business process, information technology, and people information knowledge management systems  strategic decision analysis simulation, forecasting integration,  supporting CEO  breakthrough in global  leaderships and proactive, reactive strategic investment, developed, implemented thousands structural, dynamic strategic investment, supply chain competitive pricing simulators for global strategic solution to tracking monetary, economic, fiscal policy, WTO impact on macro-economics, growth, financial economic interest rate, currency, stock, bond, commodity prices, oils and  IT upstream/downstream  20 industrial sectors 5000   raw materials costs demand, products prices forecasts, e-commerce daily corporate/plant, business, technical process  systems innovation, operations improvement simulation, procedure review, upgrade millions global CEO, CFO, senior executives decision analysis  training support in  reform, restructuring, reengineering,  investment,  venture capital merger/acquisition performance and supporting three pillars of Basel II requirement  credit, market, operational risk analysis, control by tracking, simulating financial accounting systems, early warning for corporate scandals, minimize  risks capitals , in regulation, transparency   supply chain logistics, process plant operations cost reduction, market shares , global strategic alliance and strategic business process sourcing/outsourcing strategy,  without job cuts in one year OSA program and financial accounting tracking  for internal/external auditing in corporate scandals early warning  market economy market forces demand, prices mechanism OSA/ forecast, supporting last 20 years investment, supply chain logistics strategy (workshops)
He pioneered and patented " Improve Process by OSA ", May 1980  ,Published 14 paper series 1979- 1983 on US Oil & Gas Journal , Hydrocarbon Processing  and 20 English articles, US patents, millions copies published by US Hydrocarbon Processing, advanced control-information system handbook 1991-2003  www.osawh.com/hp2001h.html   circulation to 80 countries 1600 multinationals , lectured to US Steel, Westing- house global technology productivity management conference, American Institute of Chemical Eng. Diamond Jubilee Meeting, Washington DC, World Congress, Chemicals Eng. Montreal, Tokyo, Frankfurt, Paris, Prague 46 countries capitals Chemical Eng, OPEC ministers conferences published thousands Chinese articles  as columnist on daily  economic, finance, industrial economic  newspapers , weekly, monthly economic, finance, investment, trade journals 300,000 import/exporters 100 countries currencies, export pricing  in Taiwan, China.
  He will offer in-house strategic wealth management workshops for Beijin, Shanghai, Hong, Kong, Taipei, Singapore QFII, QDII, VIP investors, traders , banking, insurance CEO, executives during March- April  2004 reserve by osawhh@citiz.net  /wh3928@yahoo.com  

2004 Malaysia Macroeconomic growth , capital market prices stability coontrol OSA:
Asian Financial Crisis, US  economic recovery Simulation
Monetary Policy on  inflation, GNP and economic indicators  for sustainable  growth and asset price stability)
OSA simulation  macro-economics:
Inflation rate = F (Money supply growth rate %, Oil prices, Commodity index, Dollar exchange rate)
GNP = F (Money supply growth rate %, Interest Rate, Export Growth Rate)
Property prices = F (Money supply growth rate %, Interest Rate, stock index)
NAPM = F( Consumer spending growth rate %, Interest Rate, stock index)
Business, consumer spending = F( Overnite interest rate, money supply growth,   exchange rate)
Stock indices = F( Dow Jones index), Interest rate,  exchange rate
Malaysia export  is benefited by  Asian recovery and US, EURO demand rebound in IT and oil products, (67 % of export) boosted it's  economic recovery,  Enjoyed  3.4 % GDP growth in  3rd quarter 2003 despite Asian SARS. Kuala Lumpur index rebound to  796 from  bottom of  350  and rebound in   Malaysia  consumer and business confidence and spending,    Malaysia RIngt  fixed by capital control at 3.8  
Monetary    Policy:
Benefited by US , Asian recovery , export boost and strong domestics demand, M3 money  supply growth expand from 3.1 % in  Feb  to 6.5 %
Consumer confidence index  benefited by strong export,  consumers sentiment at 109 in the third  quarter 2003, it will leveling off in the second half 2004 due to US, China credit tightening to cool off the  overheated consumer demand and default rate
Business confidence index :  benefited by strong export,  soared from 42 to 57,   money supply growth from 3 to 6.5 %  leading to rebound in  demand for computer, auto durable goods, oil, gas, retail sales and   crude oils, import  
manufacturing  production index : soared     to 11.5 from 5.6 and industrial production up 8.9 in July due to strong export and domestic demand.  will extend into the final quarter this year
Export : Benefited by US and Asian recovery , China  demand, commodities prices pick up  40 %   export growth at up  15 % , 
Import : up due to demand   in  computer, auto durable goods, retail sales  , import,
Trade Surplus : Up   to 1.2 billion  USD  due to US recovery,  oil, commodity  prices increase.
Currency :Capital control fixed at 3.8 facing pressure 
Kuala Lumpur Index :  will be traded 650- 800 ,   
Agricultural , Food prices: up 30 % (palm oil)  due to  global commodity prices recovery 
Inflation still under control:   1.1 %
Interest rate: over nite  3.0-3.30 %, commercial lending rate  6.4 %
Nonperformance loan at 6.1 % of total loan
GDP growth rate %:  benefited by   strong domestics demand, strong export,   3.5-- 5 %
Total external debt: stable at 43.5 Bill USD
unemployment   3.1 % to 3.5 % due to global  recovery
These deterministic, dynamic simulation of last 20 years global asset prices, and economy boom and bust of the asset bubble vicious cycle of excessive monetary policy, low interest rate induced sustained long term bull markets stocks prices gain caused consumer and business spending in real estate properties pushed soaring housing prices and rent. And deficit spending (negative saving) in stock markets, pushed the stock s even higher, until abrupt reverse of consumer and investor confidence --the bubble burst- plunge of stocks and properties prices as it happened in US, Japan, Taiwan in 1980, 1987, 1990, energy crisis, EURO 1992 currency crisis, 1994 China runaway inflation, 1995 Mexico crisis, 1997-98 ASEAN, Japan, Korea, Russia, Brazil currency crisis, all caused by overpriced stock prices due to excess monetary policy and high GDP growth

20 years successful global central banks, monetary policy, daily capital market tracking record:
Dr. Warren Huang using these structural dynamic models predicted the causes, onset, recovery of global financial, energy, currency crisis, asset, wealth bubble burst, rate hike and cut of global central banks response
He predicted US and global stocks, asset prices overheated facing US FRB rate hike May 2004 and China A shares, Hong Kong H share strong rebound at  Euro-events Asian Finance, capital market conference China finance, capital market conference, Shanghai, Nov. 25, Beijin, Nov. 27, 2003,  to 1000 QFII asset, wealth managers,  Peking University China economic research center sponsored China economic society meeting, Shanghai, Dec. 2003 and  his website www.osawh.com
He predicted  US June 1999 rate hike and 2000 IT  bubble and equity wealth effect  burst at
ECB, JP Morgan conference on Post EURO Banking, Finance Integration Strategy, Rome, Nov. 26, 1998
Washington area banking, finance conference, Apr. 1999, Washington DC,
China central bank governor sponsored global central banks policy for sustainable growth, stability ,Macao, May, 1999, Taiwan central banks governor, sponsored Pacific Basin economic and finance, Taipei, May, 1999
He predicted first US first rate cut and recession and global stock follow Dow Jones plunge 40 %, Nasdaq plunged 70 % on warning to China Peoples Banks Beijin executives and this website  May, 2001 and predicted again to May , 2002 to Peking University's Global Finance conference and Asian Business Forum,  Sept 2002 Kuala, Lumpur ABS conference ASEAN central banks, banking finance executive that US and global stock rebound and economy recovery after retest new low first quarter 2003 
Witnessed by million global government central banks ( China Peoples Bank, FRB, ECB, IMF, World Bank , IFC )banking, securities,  top investment bankers (Citicorp, Goldman Sach, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Nomura, UBS, Deutch Bank, Barclay Global), multinational executives visited this website since 1998 
China experience :He offered thousands lectures  to  30 million China nationwide 13 cities TV, radio 30 million investors, VIP trader, asset managers and nationwide national securities news papers and thousands workshops for hundreds nationwide banking, securities, insurance, properties CEO, manager, daily securities news accurately predicted China macro-economic control, credit tightening , Shanghai A traded between 600-800 during 1994-96 and first rate cut, soft landing, March 1996, and warning on Asian, Hong Kong financial crisis. 1997-1998. He accurately predicted on his website and Shanghai workshop March 2003 China A share rebound to 1650 and again in May warned Steel, auto, housing market overheating led to China Peoples Bank credit tightening, raise deposit ratio 1 % in Sept.
Taiwan experience: He offered  lectures  to  4 million China  TV 4 million investors, VIP trader, asset managers  wrote thousands articles  in million copies for daily news papers , investment, trade , economic journals and offered thousands workshops for hundreds banking, securities, insurance, properties , corporate CEO, CFO, accurately   covering  Taiwan central bank monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on economic boom and bust, daily  equities, properties wealth effect  bubble burst, recovery:  stock index from 650 to 12900  during 1986 to 1990 and crashed to 2400 in 1990 rebound to 10,000, in 2000 crashed to 3400 in 2001 warned in Jan 2002 Taiwan stock index follow Nasdaq rebound to 6500 overheated, should follow Nasdaq retest 4000. Dr. Huang accurately predicted in Peking University, Beijin, May 2002 and Asian Business Forum, Kula Lumpur Sept. 30  and on this website to million global executives, visitors that US and global stocks overheated will retest new low in early 2003  and graduate  recover the the second quarter 2003 despite Asian SARS
Trillion dollar Nonperformance   assets Management, Workshops, 
OSA maximize nonperformance  debt, equities, property asset   performance, value recovery, pre- warning for future NPL workshops   tracking  the causes, onset, recovery, prevent  of  assets bubble burst reserve your in-house workshops email wh3928@yahoo.com
 
 Goal: Dynamic tracking simulation the root causes, onset, recovery  of  ASEAN  asset bubble, wealth effect, currency crisis,  Asian financial crisis  resulted NPL loan and US new economy bubble burst, EURO economic slowdown  impact on  Malaysia macro GDP, inflation, export, daily  interest rates, currency,  stocks, commodity, electronics, products, properties prices , wealth effect impact on consumer and business spending, to predict, forecast overpriced asset prices resulted consumers spending imbalance and business profit slump due to central banks raising interest rates to cool off the economy, leading to bubble burst and abrupt change in consumer and business confidence caused stock prices plunges with average error below 1.5 %, correlation constant above 0.95.

 He will be offering full day in-house workshops on Global capital market asset prices simulation, asset allocation, risk strategic wealth management strategy   ============= Special  Strategic Wealth Management/workshops  Announcement ====== , introducing thousands strategic investment simulators predicted 3 month ahead  on global financial crisis, asset, wealth bubble burst, avoided trillion dollar market, wealth loss for 30 million China, Taiwan, Asian, US, European investors, VIP traders, money managers since 1985

reserve by osawhh@citiz.net  /wh3928@yahoo.com
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Thousands integrated, global  structural, dynamics, deterministic proprietary  causes and effects model simulators
First time  shown on this website the most reliable  global central banks monetary policy, daily  open market operations impact on stock indices, currency , wealth management OSA simulation charts (last update Oct. 2002)
OSA Simulation Charts tracking forecasts 1-3 month ahead monetary policy impact on last 20 years daily
A. Consumer spending, Fed Fund rate, Dollar exchange rate impact on Dow Jones Index
B. Japan money supply growth, Yen exchange rate, Dow Jones impact on Tokyo Nikkei index
C. EU  money supply growth, EURO exchange rate, Dow Jones impact on German DAX index
D. Hong Kong money supply growth, interbank rate, Dow Jones impact on Henseng index have
E.  US and EURO trade deficit/surplus, interest rate spread impact on EURO exchange rate
F. US and  Japan trade deficit/surplus, interest rate spread impact on  YEN  exchange rate
developed, implemented by OSA pioneer Dr. Warren Huang, supporting the following  goal, mission, performance ori