Monetary policy Impact on Asian Banking, Financial Crisis, Recovery, Reform, Risk Management  
by Dr. Warren Huang  pioneer of  two master hands controlling global financial markets prices

Structural, dynamic Predictive Global Central Banks Monetary Policy for Sustainable Growth and Asset Prices Stability Guidance and Control:  Policy Impact Simulation  Workshops
Monetary,  Economic, Fiscal Policy, WTO  impact on Global  Economic, Business cycles, Asset, Wealth , Prices  bubbles burst, oil, energy , Currency crisis, recession FEED FORWARD ( predicted 3-6 month ahead) SUSTAINABLE GROWTH AND ASSET PRICES STABILITY CONTROL Financial Markets Return, Asset Allocation, Strategic Risks OSA (RIGHT  HAND )  
Structural, Dynamics simulation of Monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on last 20 years global macro economic, business cycles, capital market asset prices, bubbles , financial crisis, boom and busts achieving growth and prices stability control predicted 1- 3 month ahead,  Global financial crisis since 1980 and 2000 high tech bubble burst and 2001-2003 global market crash and recovery : and current round of macro economic control since 2003
The only and most reliable structural dynamic deterministic decision simulators tracking, forecasts months ahead last 20 years global economic, financial crisis, asset bubble, and daily capital market asset prices avoided trillion dollar market loss due to current probabilistic models based capital market asset prices and risks models ( CAPM ), presented to US, European, China, Taiwan , Asian central bank governors, financial risks  

Monetary policy impact on  Japan economic growth, capital market asset ( equities, bond, housing, commodity) prices, inflation, currency.
Dr. Huang  two master hands warned in March on this website that  Korean economy benefits by Asian growth engine China 10.2 % GDP growth led to soaring  44 % import demand  resulted most Asian countries from Japan, Korea, Hong Kong, to India enjoyed 50 % export growth high tech, banking, finance  stocks,  oil prices, corporate earning soaring more than 80 % are overpriced will follow China Peoples Bank credit tightening ( raised lending rate 0.28 % Apr. 28, 2006) and housing markets tightening and  US rate hikes resulted slowdown, stocks 10- 20 % correction  in summer due to over-optimistic over economic and job recovery, under estimate soaring oil, commodity prices resulted inflation rate hikes resulted inflationary slowdown.
Asian stocks plunged 20 %   since June as   Henseng down from 17700 to 15300, Nikkei down from 17800 to 14000, Taiwan index plunge from 7500 to 6300 following Dow Jones from 11700 to 10700, Nasdaq from 2380 to 2060 in phase correction lose all 2006 gain, it will entering second stage correction lose all 2005 gain after July  as oil price soared to 80
Global Central Banks Monetary Policy for Sustainable Growth and Asset Prices Stability Guidance and Control:  Policy Impact Simulation  Workshops

Dr. Warren Huang HAS BEEN INVITED TO SPEAK TO 24 GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS GOVERNORS  CONFERENCE ( FRB, ECB, China Peoples Bank, Taiwan, Japan, Korea, Thailand, Asian ) since 1998 warned that Global high tech bubble burst will plunge 50-70 % and facing recession. He offered thousands lectures accurately predicted China Peoples Banks monetary policy impact on 1994-96 macro-economic control-soft landing on China daily stock markets to China 15 cities 30 million investors, national newspapers during 1994-1998 in China and again predicted China excessive money supply, housing bubble facing tightening Mar. 2003 Shanghai workshops  
Global central banks underestimated again on the impact of US dollar depreciation, excessive rate, tax cuts resulted soaring consumer housing, auto, business demand, soaring oil, commodities, metals asset prices bubble reaching 23 year high and inflation. facing credit tightening, rate hikes predicted , warned by
  Dr. Huang's when you have two OSA master hands you are in good hands accurately predicted on Euroevents Singapore, Shanghai, Beijin Asian/China Finance, Capital Markets Conference Nov. 2003 that US and China underestimated execessive  US rate, tax cuts, dollar plunged 30 % and soaring China consumer demand, FDI  will push oil commodities, metal prices hit 23 year high early 2004 push US, China inflation to 3. % US 10 year bond yield up 1.2 % to 4.8 % resulted 380 billion dollar loss and series  rate hike after May 2004, Global high tech stocks make 30- 50 % correction, Nasdaq testing 1850., Dow test 9750,  
OSA for predictive global central banks macro-economic control , prices stability and capital market prices simulation, forecasts , value investing strategy, mutual  fund  optimal asset allocation equities, bond, currency investment, portfolio management, wealth management,  risk hedging  tracking/forecasts month ahead  the root causes, onset, spread, recovery of Asian/Global financial crisis, asset bubble bursts lecture to 24 global central bank governors, wealth management, financial market risk management conferences and millions global central banks, banking, finance, corporate CEO, executives on this website  since 1998  .  Over 30 million China, Taiwan, Asian, US , ASEAN, European executives, investors on TV, radio programs and thousands workshops tracking his last 20 years results  predicted China 1994-96 macroeconomic control, softlanding and to 20 global central banks governor conference, 1999-2000 on  2000 IT bubble burst plunge 70- 90 % and  mutual fund bubble burst and US global banking, old economy blue chips , Buffet Berkshire, big cap value stocks mutual fund plunged 50- 70 %  July 2001 to Beijin China Peoples Bank executives and on this website and predicted US and global stocks bull markets  rally  March 2003 Dow Jones  from 7300 to 10,000, Nasdaq from 1200 to 2200 Japan Nikkei rebound from 7500 to 12000, , emerging market Taiwan, India, Russia index almost double and index mutual fund 80 %  2003 March rebound on Kuala Lumpur Asset Securitization conference Oct. 2002  to 50 central bank, banking, finance, executives Sep , 2002
He predicted again  2003 Nov. 2003 to Euro-events Singapore http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/  with excellent feedback photos 1, 2, 3 lecture ppt  , Shanghai, Beijin Nov. Asian/China Finance, Capital Markets conferences,  www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm2003   picture  2 with excellent feedback from 2000 QFII, QDII mutual fund managers, identify month ahead, investment opportunities in China ADR Hong Kong H shares, China A  blue chip petrochemicals, SNP, telecommunication Unicom A shares and value investing China mutual shares up 80 %and  and to China economists meeting Fudan University, Shanghai , Dec. 2003  early warning for asset bubbles in energy, metals commodities prices doubled, reaching 19 year peak, ( invested in future, derivatives gained 5000 %, mutual fund up 80 %) will drive China inflation to 4 %, China Peoples banks further credit tightening and rate hike( raised deposit ratio to 7.5 % Apr. 25, 2004)will drive GDP to 7 % in the second half despite first Quarter GDP of 9.4%,  US entering second leg economic recovery due to excessive rate, tax cut , following last year third quarter first leg boom bubble  corporate earning soared 76 % with overheated consumer over 100), investor confidence ( exceeds 1987) and ISM purchaser manager index over 66. while current quarter bubble with business confidence reaching 10 year high, consumer confidence will challenge 100 again, 370,000 new job created, soared consumer demand, housing start, durable orders will continue into third quarter and peaking out , bubble burst  thereafter,  second quarter bubble  CPI to 3.2 %, core inflation to 3.8 % force China will follow Greenspan raise interest rate  after  May and  summer , overoptimistic over US economic recovery and job creation, inflation outlook, Global IT shares facing 30- 50 % correction and blue chips banking shares and its mutual fund  facing correction 2004, Dow will be traded 9750- 10500, Nasdaq  1850- 2050 , Taiwan index  5360-5900, Henseng 11000- 14000, Nikkei 10000- 12500, . Shanghai A 1500- 1650, Shenzhen 3300- 3800, Euro : 1.18- 1.25 , Yen 108- 115,  China slowdown will drag US, Asian and European recovery and  stocks gave up all this year gain.
Dr. Huang global strategic investment/risk management lecture/workshops tours  (covered thousands lectures, 46 countries since 1980 )
Book Dr. Warren Huang's  China/US credit tightening impact on global recovery, capital market asset prices, risk  hedging 2004 second half  global investment strategy workshops (  June Taipei, Shanghai, Beijin, Hong Kong tour )getting ahead of the emerging trend, capitalize on China , US rate hike impact on global economy and capital markets, while minimize credit, markets, operational risks.osawhh@citiz.net
 
 Thousands   causes and effect structural, dynamic proven predictive OSA simulators beat  daily money, capital, insurance, property markets ( published thousands articles, 30 million copies ( over 10 million readers ) for reliable tracking, forecasts 3 month ahead of last 20 years  central banks monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on global/China economy, daily capital market asset prices, bubble early warning, tailor to QFII/QDII  investment needs.
 Dr. Huang's two OSA master hands you are in good hands for global central banks macro-economic control , prices stability and capital market prices simulation, forecasts , value investing strategy, wealth management,  risk hedging  tracking/forecasts month ahead  the root causes, onset, spread, recovery of Asian/Global financial crisis, asset bubble bursts lecture to 24 global central bank governors, wealth management, financial market risk management conferences and millions global central banks, banking, finance, corporate CEO, executives on this website  since 1998 ,  over 30 million China, Taiwan, Asian, US , ASEAN, European executives, investors on TV, radio programs and thousands workshops since 1985 and again in 2003 to Euro-events Singapore http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/  with excellent feedback photos 1, 2, 3 lecture ppt  , Shanghai, Beijin Nov. Asian/China Finance, Capital Markets conferences,  www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm2003 he was excellently received  picture  2  and to China economists meeting Fudan University, Shanghai , Dec. over 2000 QFII/QDII executives, identify month ahead, investment opportunities in China ADR Hong Kong H shares, China A shares and early warning for asset bubbles in commodities prices reaching 19 year peak, will drive US entering second leg economic recovery due to excessive rate, tax cut , following last year third quarter first leg boom bubble  corporate earning soared 76 % with overheated consumer over 100), investor confidence ( exceeds 1987) and ISM purchaser manager index over 66. while current quarter bubble with business confidence reaching 10 year high, consumer confidence will challenge 100 again, 300,000 new job created, soared consumer demand, housing start, durable orders will continue into third quarter and peaking out , bubble burst  thereafter following rate hike, second quarter bubble CPI to 2.6 %, core inflation to 1.7 % in the summer , overoptimistic over US economic recovery and job creation,( despite March strong 300,000  new jobs can not sustainable after June quarter tax rebate is over and  inflation outlook may lead to rate hike after May lead to serious housing bubble repeat 2000 election bubble and global IT and blue chips banking shares will peaking out in July  facing and correction 2004, Dow will be traded 10200- 10900, Nasdaq  1950- 2150 , Taiwan index  6000- 7000, Henseng 12500- 14000, Nikkei 10000- 11900, China credit tightening continue. Shanghai A 1600- 1790, Shenzhen 3700- 4250, Euro : 1.18- 1.25 , Yen 102- 110, US, Asian and European stocks gave up all this year gain and follow US stocks  rebound to new high in the second quarter 2004.
Dr. Huang accurately  predicted  last 20 years daily US interest rate, commodities, gold, oil prices daily capital market prices 4 month ahead and again at  Shanghai University of Finance, Economics, Oct. 25,  Euro-event  Singapore, Nov. 5,  2003 Asian Finance, capital market conference on  Monetary policy impact on Asian and China  economic outlook, asset prices, warned  that any free float of RMB will  lead to China currency crisis and US runaway inflation and  repeat past global financial crisis, bubble burst. Only Dr. Huang's two master hands ( interest rate and trade, economic policy ) market forces price mechanism guide through RMB gradual appreciation is the best approach, regardless peg to the dollar or a basket of currency. and  recommended to  buy Russia oils,  China A, B ADR  oil, petroch( PTR, SNP, CEO), steel, aluminum share and Hong Kong H shares due to soaring Russia China, demand, profits, DFI inflow, while sell overheated US,  Taiwan,  Singapore, Korea, Japan, German  IT shares, due to price cutting. commodity, oil prices soared to 19 year high will  drive US CPI to 2.6 %, core inflation to 1.7 % in the summer ,  serious housing bubble will lead to rate hike,  buy with caution global banking, finance stocks due to low interest rate, soaring housing, stock markets facing bubble burst.   and continue recommendation on China shares  on China finance, capital market conference  Shanghai, Nov. 25 ,  Beijin, Nov. 27  2003, but warned China  stocks bubble on China economic society annual meeting, Fudan Univeristy, Dec. 20, 2003 bubbles in China ADR share up 50 % -80 % after Dr. Huang Nov. 5 recommendation   due to  hurt by China Peoples Bank credit tightening in steel, cement, auto, housing will facing 20 % correction , China life IPO will give up most of its gain  US rate hike by May 2004, ,US dollar stabilize ,oil prices traded 28-36, gold price peaking out , traded 380-430  as confirmed by China People's bank Jan 5 to cut the money supply growth from 2003's 18 % to 17 % this year , China leave RMB unchange and Greenspan indicated the need for rate hike  and    China Peoples Bank credit tightening in steel, cement, auto, housing ,US dollar stabilize ,oil prices traded 28-36, gold price peaking out , traded 380-430   Japan will face slowdown by yearend
USA    Australia  Asian  Canada  China   Hong Kong   Taiwan    Thailand   Japan  S. Korea   Singapore  Malaysia  Phillipines  Indonesia   Viet-Nan   India  UK/EURO  Russia/E. Europe    Mexico   Argentina  Brazil

 US and global markets   global capital markets investment strategic simulation tailored to your need . please email wh3928@yahoo.com for reservation
2006  Monetary Policy Impact on   Japan Macroeconomic, money, currency, capital market stocks, bond Markets Risks Operations Simulation Analysis
Monetary Policy on  inflation, GNP and economic indicators  for sustainable  growth and asset price stability)
OSA simulation  macro-economics:
Inflation rate = F (Money supply growth rate %, Oil prices, Commodity index, Dollar exchange rate)
GNP = F (Money supply growth rate %, Interest Rate, Export Growth Rate)
Property prices = F (Money supply growth rate %, Interest Rate, stock index)
NAPM = F( Consumer spending growth rate %, Interest Rate, stock index)
Business, consumer spending = F( Overnite interest rate, money supply growth,   exchange rate)
Stock indices = F( Dow Jones index), Interest rate,  exchange rate
 Wealth Effect = F( money supply, consumer, business spending, interest rate, currency, stock index, housing prices)
Japan is fully recovering from bubble burst in 1990, The 13.4 % money supply growth pushed Nikkei index from 22000 to 38000, Housing and labor cost shooting 5 times, although inflation only at 3.7 %, The  flooding capital invested in US, Asia and Japan   stock, properties, and manufacturing markets were trapped in 1992 global recession, properties prices plunge more than 50 % and further in 1997-98 , Nikkei plunged to 7600, properties prices plunge 70 % from   the peak and still falling. suffered trillion dollar nonperformance loan. and 136 of GDP debt, ignoring Dr. Huang warning over overheated Global stock, properties, manufacturing markets since 1988
Although after Bank of Japan 1999  debt restructuring and zero interest provide ample fund( trillion dollar stimulus package) to the banking, manufacturing, since 1999,   benefited by Asia recovery and Asian US, EURO stock s rebound associated wealth effect ,Japan pulled out of recession,  Nikkei rebound to 22000 Japan enjoyed 9.8 %   GNP growth, money supply from 2 % rebound to 10 %. in the first quarter 2000., Capital spending up 6 % ( mostly in new economy) .
Bank of Japan raised it's overnite rate from zero to 0.25 % due to rising  oils, industrial raw material and global inflation, pickup in capital spending and GNP .However, the growth slowdown since April, Nikkei following US manufacturing recession 2001 drag  Nasdaq plunge pulled Nikkei  plunged 70 % to  8000,  resulted additional trillion dollar bad loan. The stock market plunge resulted loss of wealth effect and bad loan resulted further weakening business  demand and consumer spending, despite recent Nikkei rebound from 7500 to 11000, IT business spending and export pick up to 9 billion due to China and Asian economic recovery, US tax, rate cuts, led to 6 % increase in industrial production and 4Q 2003 GDP up 7 %,  money supply growth still at  1.5 %,  housing construction retails sales still decline, unemployment drop to 4.1 %. ,   pulling  Japan  out of recession CPI down 0.5 %, despite strong Yen  
Japan, Yen exchange rate, Monetary Policy on capital market Nikkei, bond yield, properties asset bubble burst prices
Nikkei plunge from 38000 to 7500 as  BOJ money supply growth plunged  from 13 % to 1  %   as Yen plunged 70 % from 220 to 80 and soared to 150, currently settles to 105
Nikkei  follow Dow Jones  rebound from 7500 to 11700 , Nikkei rebound from 7500 to 17800   as money supply growth expanded from 1 % to 1.6 %  recent recovery from  high tech bubble burst,. Japan  2006  export ,, corporate profit growth 20 % , expanding  trade surplus to 9 billion led GDP to 7
 However, Nikkei is overheated will follow Dow Jones correction from 17800 to 14000 and testing 12500 in summer 
 Japan  ADR shares prices OSA,  asset bubble earning warning,

 Japan  stock prices, monetary policy impact on housing properties prices and rent Japan housing properties prices down 70 %  from 1990 peak when Nikkei soared to 38000, it plunge 75 % as Nikkei plunge to 7500,  money supply growth drop below 2 %Dr. Huang accurately predicted Japan's 17 banks facing 700 billion nonperformance loan, downgraded trigger sell off in Japan banking, finance shares drag Nikkei to 7500 , 19  year new low,already spread into Hong Kong banking shares plunge 30 % , Henseng plunged below 8400 Despite BOJ injected fund into the financial; markets to increase money supply, buy back 328 billion stock in banks bad loan  , US manufacturing, recession, stock plunge  drag Nikkei into  8000- 9000  consolidation  will hurt Japan housing prices accurately predicted by Dr. Huang  July.2001-2002. Despite recent Nikkei rebound from 7500 to 11000, it is still premature to speculate on Japan Housing market.
5. Japan Yen currency: Yen benefited by booming export , due to strong China, Asian  US recovery, but  under pressure as rising oil prices cutting Japan  trade surplus despite Japan enjoyed 9 billion dollar trade surplus in  Dec.    rising oil prices, import, , Recent rebound in Yen will cutting into export, trade surplus drag Yen to 105-113 trading range, strong Yen will hurt Japan export. as economic slowdown
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OSA pioneer Dr. Warren Huang return from  Asia, lectured on Monetary policy impact on global capital markets asset prices, bubble early warning, risk management  to Euro-events  Asian finance, capital markets conference Nov. 5, 2003, China, finance, capital market conference, Nov. 25, 2003, Shanghai, Nov. 27, Beijin, 2003  will offer keynote speech and half day workshop for Wealth Management Conference: March. 23-35, 2004, Grand Hyatt, Singapore. He will speak on Global strategic wealth management , asset allocation, and risk hedging , introducing thousands strategic investment simulators predicted 3 month ahead  on global financial crisis, asset, wealth bubble burst, avoided trillion dollar market, wealth loss for 30 million China, Taiwan, Asian, US, European investors since 1985
He will offer in-house strategic wealth management workshops for Beijin, Shanghai, Hong, Kong, Taipei, Singapore QFII, QDII, VIP investors, traders , banking, insurance CEO, executives during Feb- March
reserve by osawhh@citiz.net  /wh3928@yahoo.com

 OSA pioneer Dr. Warren Huang will offer keynote speech and half day workshop on Global strategic wealth effect and risk hedging for Wealth Management Conference: March. 23-35, 2004, Grand Hyatt, Singapore .= =

 ==== Shanghai/Beijin Euro-events   Conference/in-house workshops Announcement ===========
==  China Finance, Capital Market Summit  Conference/in-house workshops ====
You are welcome to join Dr. Huang lecture to Shanghai lectures to  Euro-Events  China Finance and Capital Market  SUMMIT conference and booth at Grand Ballroom 500, Weihai Rd. , Four Seasons Hotel,  Nov. 25 and  Beijin  Nov.  27 to 400  China  government regulation, banking, finance ,  QFII, corporate CEO, CFO, executives on Monetary, economic, fiscal policy WTO impact on China economy and capital market asset prices, bubble, simulation, risk management  He will demonstrate his successful experience in predicting 1994-96 macroeconomic control soft-landing (offered thousand nationwide TV, radio daily tracking lecturing and 100 banking, finance companies risk management) and current China Peoples Bank credit tightening
 www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm2003
Other Asian countries  by reservation  osawhh@citiz.net   or  wh3928@yahoo.com Dr. Warren Huang speak to Shanghai Finance and Economic University China Finance for sustainable growth Shanghai Oct. 25  and Dec. 20 to Peking University China economic research center sponsored China economic society annual meeting at Fudan University  on Strategic China  Banking, Finance, Enterprises Reform  introducing OSA simulation models. on-China capital market asset prices simulation, bubble early warning Monetary , economic, fiscal policy , foreign investments impact on China  capital market  industrial sectors market  forces in market economy,  demand, prices mechanism, profit margin, investment return and risk management 
He will offer Shanghai  full day in house CEO/CFO financial managers  China capital market , banking, finance, reform and capital market asset prices  mechanism  SUMMIT workshops    Feb- March 2004
===  Singapore Asia Finance, Capital Market Summit  Conference/in-house workshops ====
Dr. Huang will speak to Singapore Euro-Events Asian Finance and Capital Market  SUMMIT conference Nov.5  three  hundred Asian government regulation, , banking, finance , corporate CEO, CFO, executives on Monetary, economic, fiscal policy WTO impact on Asian ( China, Hong Kong, Japan, Korea, Singapore, Taiwan )economy and capital market asset prices, bubble, simulation, risk management  http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/  with excellent feedback photos 1, 2, 3 lecture ppt

Other Asian countries by reservation  osawhh@citiz.net   or  wh3928@yahoo.com Dr. Warren Huang will speak to Shanghai Finance and Economic University China Finance for sustainable growth Shanghai Oct. 25 on China capital market asset prices simulation, bubble early warning Monetary , economic, fiscal policy , foreign investments impact on China  capital market  industrial sectors market  forces in market economy,  demand, prices mechanism, profit margin, investment return and risk management 
He will offer Shanghai  full day in house CEO/CFO financial managers  China capital market Banking, Real Estate, Construction materials  auto asset prices, bubble simulation workshops
  first time  shown on this website the  most reliable  global stock indices , currency OSA simulation charts ( last update Oct. 2002), go to in-house workshops for recent update)
OSA Simulation Charts tracking forecasts 1-3 month ahead monetary policy on last 20 years daily
A. Consumer spending, Fed Fund rate, Dollar exchange rate impact on Dow Jones Index
B. Japan money supply growth, Yen exchange rate, Dow Jones impact on Tokyo Nikkei index
C. EU  money supply growth, EURO exchange rate, Dow Jones impact on German DAX index
D. Hong Kong money supply growth, interbank rate, Dow Jones impact on Henseng index have been developed, implemented supporting the following  goal, mission, performance oriented  outsourcing strategic centers corporate/ memberships/ workshops   tailored to global government, enterprises, banking, finances enterprises  board members, think tank and executives in integrating into the global markets decision needs:
Nikkei  rebound from 7500 to 11400 is overheated will facing strong Yen resulted damage to export, corporate profit and GDP growth at 3.9 % in the second quarter. 
it  rebound  to 11000   as money supply growth expanded from 1 % to 2.3   in  recent recovery from  high tech bubble burst, . Japan this year second quarter  export ,, corporate profit growth , expanding trade surplus to 9 billion led GDP to 3.9 However, consumer and business demand still facing deflation threat due to high unemployment at 5.3 % , Dr. Huang  predicted and warned here again early Sept that global economist and market analyst treated unemployment as lagging indicators ignoring  US and global high unemployment will drag consumer confidence and stock prices 10-20 % correction.   
 However, Strong Yen will hurt the export  cut into trade surplus, drag Yen to 100-115 economy,   stock markets Nikkei will be  following Dow  and drag by strong Yen traded  in  9200-11000

 Trillion dollar Nonperformance   assets Management, workshops,  sponsored by Peking Univeristy  Guahua School of Management, Executive Develpment Beijin zhoucs@gsm.pku.edu.cn
OSA maximize nonperformance  debt, equities, property asset   performance, value recovery, pre- warning for future NPL workshops   tracking  the causes, onset, recovery, prevent  of  assets bubble burst reserve your in-house workshops email wh3928@yahoo.com

Dr. Huang return from Asia, lectured to Asian Business Forum's  European, Asian central banks, stock exchanges, banking, securities executives on global nonperformance loan debt, equities, properties  asset prices , credit risk simulation, investment strategy and  Asset Backed Securitization workshops: predicting the unpredictable futures to  minimize bad loan ,shares buy back  procurement ,

Dr. Huang accurately predicted in Peking University, Beijin, May 2002 and Asian Business Forum, Kula Lumpur Sept. 30  and on this website to million global executives, visitors that US and global stocks overheated will retest new low in early 2003  and graduate  recover the the second quarter 2003 despite Asian SARS

Japan's banking crisis and banking, economic reform OSA

OSA goal, mission, performances oriented,  tracking the causes , onset, recovery of the bad loan and   OSA simulators for pre-warning supported reform and reengineering is needed for bad loan auditing   prevention.
Mr.  Heizo Takenaka is starting his banking, economic reform work by   AIDITING 430 BILLION BAD LOAN and figure out whether infusion of public fund is needed to generate acceptable return, beefup the state run Resolution and collection corp, paying discount prices for bad loan, but all these effort fixing the old problem. without OSA goal, mission, performances oriented,   tracking the causes of the bad loan and   OSA simulators for pre-warning supported reform and reengineering will generate new bad loan in current global recession and financial market slump.
Asian and Argentina Banking and Financial Crisis is back again, Only OSA decision simulators supported Banking, Financial industry reform, risk management tracking, forecasts, the root causes, onset, recovery of debt, equities, properties nonperformance loan,  can prevent it from happening  again
 Click for OSA Excel Simulation Charts   tracking forecasts 1-3 month ahead monetary policy on daily Global Financial confidence crisis
A. Consumer spending, Fed Fund rate, Dollar exchage rate impact on Dow Jones Index
B. Japan money supply growth, Yen exchange rate, Dow Jones impact on Tokyo Nikkei index
C. EU  money supply growth, EURO exchange rate, Dow JOnes impact on German DAX index
D. Hong Kong money supply growth, interbank rate, DOw Jones impact on Henseng index
and wealth effect impact on global properties  and asset bubble prices
Causes, Onset, Recovery of Global Financial , Banking Crisis, Recession, Default Risk Control  =====================================================================================
Dr. Huang accurately predicted and warned in 1989 in Tokyo  that Nikkei soared to 38000, properties bubble bursts, and    July 2001 in Beijin to China Peoples Bank staff  that US , blue chips, Asian, Japan, European  banking finance stock overheated.  DOw Jones  will plunged below 8000 and Japan's 17 banks facing 700 billion nonperformance loan, downgraded trigger sell off in Japan banking, finance shares and plunging IT shares due to US slowdown, Nasdaq slump drag Nikkei to 8000-9000,  20 year new low, already spread into Hong Kong banking shares plunge 30 % , Henseng plunged below 9000 Despite BOJ injected fund into the financial; markets to increase money supply, buy back 368 billin stock in banks bad loan and new premier honeymoon lead to Nikkei soared 17 % to 14200, US manufacturing, recession, stock plunge  lead Japan into economic contraction, drag Nikkei into  9000  consolidation in 2002
Global investment banking loss trillion dollars in global stocks, currency markets due to   misguided by over optimistic over US economy, chasing the IT, asset bubbles, ignoring rates hikes impact on business, demand, supply, prices, resulted US Nasdaq , Japan, Taiwan, Korea plunge 60 %

Trillion dollar loses in global old and new economy (Chips, PC,, networks) supply chain in inventory built up  due to speculation on productivity of new economy, ignoring Dr. Huang's warning on overheating Jan. 2000
He warned on this site  Jan 2000  that US and Asian banking and IT bubble are overpriced, we will have Asian financial storm, crisis again in March. will be subject to 30 %- 90 % correction.
US and Japan, Hong Kong stocks plunged In mid March reacting to 17 Japan banks credt downgrade due to suffered 700 billion nonperformance loan
presented to OSA integrated supply chain strategy saves billio0n dollars supply chain cost, and trillion dollar market loss" presented to SIngapore supply chain strategy conference/workshop, Apr 26-27, 2001 www.ibcasia.com.sg/supplymgtoilgas.htm

Dr. Huang accurately predicted 2000-2003 global stock crash and recovery, Nikkei plunged to 7500

 Japan ADR share prices simulation forecasts

Dr. Warren Huang accurately predicted US Fed will raise fund rate in June 1999 on Macao global central banks conference due to soaring stocks, properties, oil prices, which will take US stocks and Asian stock prices into minimum 15 % correction, and some internet , biotech stocks bubble burst with 50 -90 % corrections, He also predicted in Aug 2000 that US manufacturing recession NAPM plunge to 41, IT earning decline in March of 2001, Dow will test 9000, Nasdaq test 1800, Henseng test 12000, Nikkei test 114000, Taiwan index down to 4500 with   asset  bubble  simulation models on Macao's central bank governors conference, Taipei's Pacific Basin finance conference and Washington DC NASD conferences.during April and May , June, Dec. 1999.

These deterministic, dynamic simulation of last 20 years global asset prices, and economy boom and bust of the asset bubble vicious cycle of excessive monetary policy, low interest rate induced sustained long term bull markets stocks prices gain caused consumer and business spending in real estate properties pushed soaring housing prices and rent. And deficit spending (negative saving) in stock markets, pushed the stock s even higher, until abrupt reverse of consumer and investor confidence --the bubble burst- plunge of stocks and properties prices as it happened in US, Japan, Taiwan in 1980, 1987, 1990, energy crisis, EURO 1992 currency crisis, 1994 China runaway inflation, 1995 Mexico crisis, 1997-98 ASEAN, Japan, Korea, Russia, Brazil currency crisis, all caused by overpriced stock prices due to excess monetary policy and high GDP growth
USA China      Thailand       Taiwan      Japan      Hong Kong     Korea        Singapore    Indonesia     Canada  Mexico