Global Strategic Investment Banking Strategic Research : Breakthrough innovation proactive structural dynamic simulator for Financial markets Crisis, Risks OSA early warning

and warned that banking finance industry mega merger emphasized on staff reduction benefit and diversification , ignored industrial performance impact on post merger integration on risk management decision making resulted Citigroup, UBS billion dollar loss in Russian, LTCM crisis and year 2000 JP Morgan merge Chase resulted bilions dollar lose on structural finance and current Goldman Sach merge New century billion dollar and HSBC billion dollar loss on Washington Mutual subprime loan
Barclays 91 billion acquisition of ABN bank , will repeating Goldman Sach, HSBC troubleon future mortgage bad loan.

Monetary Policy Impact on Global Capital Markets Prices, Investment Strategy
Monetary policy impact on global stock market indices cash and futures
= F ( consumer demand , interest rates, currency ) trading loses risks simulation:
mortgage housing prices = F( money supply growth, interest rates, stock index gain)
soaring US rate resulted mortgage price slump resulted NPL
IPO, pre/post M/A demand, prices = F ( properties, stock indices , industrial sectors demand ,profit margin, interest rates)
investment banking cos ( MorganStanley, Goldman Sach ) stock prices performances = F (investors sentiment, properties, equities price bubbles, mortgage rate %)
Integrating Proactive Central Banks Monetary, Economics, Fiscal Policy, Macroeconomic control into oil, energy, banking, finance, housing and downstream 20 industrial sectors microeconomics supply demand, capital markets asset prices mechanism, for Financial, Banking Crisis, Recovery, Risks Early Warning Impact on pre/post Merger/acquisition, IPO performance, Simulation avoided trillion dollar loan default loss.

30 millions US, China, Taiwan 15 cities TV, radio HNW investors, investment banks, banking, finance, enterprises CEO, executives joined Dr. Warren Huang following
Global Proactive Structural Strategic Investment Banking, Capital Markets Research Decision Analysis workshops
Breakthrough innovation in Proactive Structural Dynamic Global Monetary ,Economic Policy Impact on Macro economic , Capital Markets Asset Pricing integration and Risks Dynamic Simulation:
Monetary macroeconomic policy Financial Economics  Industrial Economy Regional Economy Investment banking, Capital Markets Asset Prices, Global Trade Economics
Breakthrough Innovation in Global Capital Market Equities Market Prices Valuation Models
The only and most reliable structural dynamic deterministic decision simulators tracking, forecasts months ahead last 20 years global economic, financial crisis, asset bubble, and daily capital market asset ( interest rate, currency, commodity, equities, stocks, bond futures, derivatives, firm, project valuation ) prices market forces mechanism, avoided trillion dollar market loss and billion dollar supply chain cost due to current probabilistic models based , speculation over daily economic, business news, technical charting, statistical , probability based, market momentum based capital market asset prices and risks models ( CAPM ), presented to 24 US, European, China, Taiwan , Asian central bank governors, financial risks and wealth management , futures, derivatives prices forecasts conferences and on this website www.osawh.com tracking daily results , visited by million global government, central banks, banking, finance, corporate executives universities since 1998.
Predicted 3 months ahead last 20 years global currency, 1980, 1990, 2000 energy , financial crisis , 1994-96 and current China macro-economic control, soft-landing, 2000 US IT bubble bursts, 2001 recession and rate cut, current rate hikes...
Dr. Warren Huang key note speech and workshop for China oil, gas, LNG, LPG conference Feb 24-25, 2005, China Oil Market conference, Nov. 18, 2005 Beijin and Strategic China fund and Wealth Management on China fund and wealth management conference March 2008 Pudong Shangri-La hotel
A. China Economic , energy policy reform, rates hike impact on oil, gas demand, prices and gas industry structures
B. Challenges, Opportunities, Risks, return in US/ China macroeconomic control impact on natural gas, LNG, LPG demand, futures prices market forces mechanism and investments risk adjusted return
C. Global / China oil, gas, LNG Project financing operation, markets, credit, policy risks management workshop
including the causes, onset, spread, recovery, early warning of China/global energy crisis, supply bottleneck and policy, manufacturing energy conservation, de-bottlenecking reserve by osawhh@sina.com
Dr. Warren Huang CV accurately predicted Nov. 5, 2003 in Singapore ,Shanghai Euro-events conferencesSingapore http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/ photos 1, 2, 3 lecture ppt , Shanghai, Beijin Nov. 2003 Asian/China finance, capital Markets conferences, www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm   picture 2 and to China economists meeting Fudan University, Shanghai , Dec. 2003 over 2000 QFII/QDII investment banking, capital markets executives, and May 8, 15, 2004 to US Silicon Valley biotech, Nano technology investors, radio station , and www.osawh.com website that excessive rate and tax cuts resulted manufacturing and consumer demand pushing US Oil prices soared above 50, metals prices reaching 23 year high drive 5000 downstream products prices
Proactive Structural Asset pricing for China/global IPO underwriting and market pricing performance
China 3 billion investment in US Blackstone Group (BX): despite BX enjoyed US recent real estate, communication, retail boom, its performance has been peaking out . IPO soared from 28 to 36, it will be testing below 30 due to   US facing inflationary slowdown dragging BX major real estate ( subprime and falling housing demand and prices) and weakening retail investments, sharp competitions in its communications group, and peaking out in energy commodity performance),
China investments still subject to currency exchange loss due to RMB appreciation
Proactive Structural Asset Pricing for strategic merger/acquisition pre and post merger integration performance analysis and investment strategy
HP merge Compaq to become no.2 in computer does not help HP profit margin,( HP printer division enjoyed 8 % profit margin contributed 3.8 billion profit in 2004, while Compaq corporate computing and PC only has 1.0 % profit margin and facing increasing competition from IBM, HP, Apple in PC and sever markets, rely on job cuts for cost reduction Despite already saved 3.5 billion ) without OSA value added simulators to upgrade HPQ software, service, HPQ margin will be dragged by Compaq,
China's PC king Lenovo bought US IBM   10 billion billion sales Think Pad PC   for 1.75 billion, will boost Lenovo profit margin and global market shares, upgrade its technical and management skill, while IBM will improve its China
marketing potential for other divisional products ( Main frame, server, and corporate computing.)
Oracle enjoyed 23 % profit margin bought Peoples Soft ( 3.4% margin ) in customer relationships, financial, human resources data management will be drag by PeopleSoft, and facing competition from SAP and other market players

On the job training for online trading in Global Stocks indices future OSA simulation forecasts
On the job training for online trading inGlobal Currencies future OSA simulation forecasts

Central bank Monetary, Economic, Finance Policy Analysis: for growth, markets prices stability
Bubble Burst
USA Australia Asian Canada China Hong Kong   Taiwan    Thailand Japan  S. Korea   Singapore Malaysia Phillipines Indonesia Viet-Nan   India UK/EURO Russia/E. Europe Mexico Argentina Brazil
OSA improve venture capital, new economy profitability, while minimize investment risks
venture risks    IPO Prices Global ADR     Pre/post Merger acquisition performance, cost reduction
Venture capital risks IPO Prices Simulation Global ADR Pre/post Merger acquisition   Basel II , Market, Operational, Interest rate Credit risks management simulation and control
Restructuring Pre/post merger Performance process improvement Procurement    Marketing    CEO/CFO Training
Monetary policy impact on Crude oil, global petrochemicals, plastics prices, stock prices workshop
Banking/Finance Profit Improvement Workshop     Internet/Information Tech. Profit Improvement Workshops
Global Asset Prices Simulation, Risk Management :Stocks, Bond, Commodity, Property Prices Simulation
Two master hands controlling global Bull, Bear Markets?, Buy, Sell, Hold for global stocks in 2001
Right hand simulate, control monetary policy impact on daily financial , commodity market sentiments
Left Hand : simulate, control consumer business demand impact on industy, corporate earning, stock prices
Dr Huang has implemented two master hand controlling global financial markets bull, bear market and for daily buy/ sell/ hold decision one month ahead. He has lectured to 30 millions China, Taiwan, US Radio, TV audience, workshops tracking last 20 years, accurately predicted the bull, bear, buy,sell/ hold decisions ====================================================Breakthrough Innovation in global market economy demand, prices market forces mechanism simulation forecasts of global central bank monetary policy, macroeconomic control, impact on economy, finance, capital market market forces asset prices mechanism simulation, forecasts by thousands Proactive Structural Dynamic Simulation month ahead of last 20 years emerging global finance, capital stock, oil, gas, commodities futures market bull/bear trend US, China rate hike, asset bubble impact on global coal, Oil, Gas, petrochemicals, and freight, downstream power industry Demand, Futures Prices, Derivatives , corporate profit margin, stock prices and associated asset bubble burst risks with 2005 forecasts, Join Dr. Warren Huang's Beijin pre-conference workshop or his post conference in-house workshop, get first hand information and OSA proactive models simulation methodology and forecasts, will use www.osawh.com and www.osawh.com/riskm.html, and oil, gas prices market forces mechanism simulation forecast : www.osawh.com/oilpetpri.html and www.osawh.com/hp2001h.html materials as lectures contents *( presented to 24 global central banks, financial risk management conferences and visited by millions global central banks, retail, investment banking, finance, 1600 multinationals oil, gas CEO, executives from 78 countries and lectures China, Taiwan, US 15 cities ( Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guanzhou, Taipei, San Francisco ) 30 million TV, radio investors, fund managers, hundreds banking, securities, insurance companies CEO, CFO, fund managers, risks, supply chain procurement, marketing managers since 1985, published thousands Chinese articles 100 million copies on China, Taiwan, US newspapers, investment, economic, finance journals.

Strategic China Energy trade Finance conference and Strategic Risks Management workshop
Do not miss these billion dollar global strategic coal, energy , freight, petrochemical, power industry solution in fighting soaring energy, feedstock costs and bottleneck
Dr. Warren Huang will share with you his 30 years hundreds multinational , SOE oils, gas energy financing project managers and consulting experiences in his key note speech and workshop for Asian Business Forum
www.abf-asia.com/project/1733cc_PTIT.pdf China oil, gas, LNG, LPG conference Feb 24-25, 2005, Beijin on
A. China Economic , energy policy reform, rates hike impact on oil, gas demand, prices market forces mechanism and gas industry structures
B. Challenges, Opportunities, Risks, return in US/ China macroeconomic control impact on global coal, oil, natural gas, LNG, LPG and downstream petrochemicals, power industry demand, futures prices market forces mechanism and investments risk adjusted return
C. Global / China coal, oil, gas, LNG , petrochemicals, freight, power industry prices market forces mechanism forecasts, project financing operation, markets, credit, policy risks management, early warning systems workshop
including the causes, onset, spread, recovery, early warning of China/global energy crisis, supply bottleneck and policy, manufacturing energy conservation, de-bottlenecking
or reserve your full day in-house lectures and workshop by osawhh@sina.com :

Dr. Warren Huang CV accurately predicted Nov. 5, 2003 in Singapore ,Shanghai Euro-events conferencesSingapore http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/ photos 1, 2, 3 lecture ppt , Shanghai, Beijin Nov. 2003 Asian/China finance, capital Markets conferences, www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm   picture 2 and to China economists meeting Fudan University, Shanghai , Dec. 2003 over 2000 QFII/QDII executives, May 8, 15, 2004 to US Silicon Valley investors, radio station , and www.osawh.com website that excessive rate and tax cuts resulted manufacturing and consumer demand pushing US Oil prices soared above 50, metals prices reaching 23 year high drive 5000 downstream products prices and inflation up, will follow economic recovery in the second half of 2004 and not transitory . weak dollar due to soaring trade deficit, ( 55.3 billion for Oct drive wholesales inflation up 5 %, bond market slump in May, recovered to 4.1 % is overpriced, will plunge to 4.5 % till the end of 2004 job creation, productivity, profit growth peaking out in the second quarter 2004 Fed June, Aug , Dec 0.25 % rate hikes China credit tightening, raised 0.27 % rate hike in 2004, global economy facing inflationary slowdown next year US GDP below 3 %) and followed by stagflation next year with stocks entering bear market consolidation, with 30- 50 % correction
US merger/acquisition pre and post merger integration performance analysis and investment strategy
HP merge Compaq to become no.2 in computer does not help HP profit margin,( HP printer division enjoyed 8 % profit margin contributed 3.8 billion profit in 2004, while Compaq corporate computing and PC only has 1.0 % profit margin and facing increasing competition from IBM, HP, Apple in PC and sever markets, rely on job cuts for cost reduction Despite already saved 3.5 billion ) without OSA value added simulators to upgrade HPQ software, service, HPQ margin will be dragged by Compaq, stock prices doubled to 25 are overpriced, facing hard time ahead in second half 2004, stock prices will be down 50 % to 16-21
China's PC king Lenovo bought US IBM   10 billion billion sales Think Pad PC   for 1.75 billion, will boost Lenovo profit margin and global market shares, upgrade its technical and management skill, while IBM will improve its China
marketing potential for other divisional products ( Main frame, server, and corporate computing.)
Oracle enjoyed 23 % profit margin bought Peoples Soft ( 3.4% margin ) in customer relationships, financial, human resources data management will be drag by PeopleSoft, and facing competition from SAP and other market players
Oracle stock prices will give up all its recent gain, testing 10- 12
Sprint 35 billion dollar merger Nextel will facing sharp price war in wireless competition, Nextel margin will be grad by Sprint. stock prices at 24 are over valued.
Johnson & Johnson 35 billion merger Guidant, 2 billion dollar sales , 400 million earning in heart stent, pace maker,
diversify into therapeutic area. However Guidant is over priced at 72, Johnson may have some room to growth.
Global IPO will facing 30-50 % correction as Google will plunged from 199 to 100, any attempt using IPO. recnet merger/acquisition to speculate election, yearend market rally will be followed by post election bubble burst ( soaring oil, raw material cost, in global economic slowdown due to credit tightening) sell off bear trap , avoided trillion dollar bond, equities, derivative market loss made trillion dollar oil, commodity derivatives market profit.
China Macroeconomic control tracking, forecasts: Despite China Peoples Bank raised deposit ratio by 1.5 % and cutting capital investment in steel, cement, aluminum, auto loan lead to some progress macroeconomic control with Aug money supply growth at 14.2 % (below 17 % target), auto sales down 10 %, asset prices, inflation retreat from May ( benefited by commodities prices down 15 % ). However Aug. producer, consumer price still up 5.3 % ( coastal cities Beijin, Shanghai GDP up 14 %) from year ago, wealth effect, FDI drive Aug national housing prices up 14.8 % ( 2750 ) and 28 %for coastal cities Shanghai, Ninbo, Aug retail sale up 13.2, China    GDP up 9. 7 % far above 7 % target, medium, long term loan up 30.4 % repeat 1994, Shanghai , Hanzhou, Guanzhou area housing price up 38 % call the need for structural interest rate hike to cool off the consumer and housing demand. soaring China steel, cement, aluminum investment (over 120 %), coal, energy shortage, stocks prices recent rebound from 1250 to 1470 speculating over Premier's statement over stock market stability is overheated ( accurately predicted by Dr. Huang on this website) market is over, continue bear market technical rebound ( within 20 % and consolidation, with Shanghai A testing 1250- 1500, IPO and newly listed small cap shares plunge 30-50 % with most testing its IPO price, low prices blue chips shares like Sinopec, Unicom will lead future rebound 20 %. , This supply side tightening are insufficient to cool the uneven economic overheating, must follow US rate hike in Sept. implement structural rate hikes to cut off excessive consumer demand in housing, construction materials, auto and retails demand . to cool off soaring housing and metals prices, any postpone of rate rate hike will further delay soft landing into second half . 2005, He also predicted Oct. 1994 to China Wuhan securities news, Wangguo, Kuotai securities investors, Beijin China Financial Times, China macroeconomic control will be soft-landing 1996, Shanghai A will be traded between 600- 800 during 1994- 1996 He recommended that China stocks will be very attractive to QFII in the new Millennium
Global central banks, economist, financial market , industrial sectors analysts, CEO ignoring ,Dr. Huang photo warning to ECB, JP Morgan in Rome, China Peoples Bank governor Dai central bank governors conference in Macao, Taiwan central bank governor Asian Pacific conference Taipei, APEC finance Thailand prime minister, ASEAN central bank governors conferences in Bangkok, US Fed governors , Washington Area, NASD finance conferences 1998-2000 on IT asset bubble bursts
US macroeconomic, inflation control tracking, forecasts: Dr. Huang spoke to Euro-events Singapore , Shanghai, Beijin Nov. 2003 Asian/China Finance, Capital Markets conferences lecture to 2000 QFII, QDII mutual fund managers and China Economist annual meeting Dec. 20 and www.osawh.com website and thousands workshops warning US, global analysts over optimistic over the business and consumer spending twin growth engine will drive second half 2004 economic recovery, profit growth, bull market rally, job creation, underestimated on the impact of US dollar depreciation, excessive rate, tax cuts , 45 trillion dollar housing, equities wealth effect resulted excessive consumer, business demand, NAPM peaking out at 66 ( already plunged to 58 as predicted ) driving soaring oil, commodities, metals asset prices bubble reaching 23 year high in March, May and extending into the rest of 2004. US trade deficit soared to 50- 55 billion and inflation, facing credit tightening, rate hikes after May, Aug. Sept 2004, profit , productivity growth , consumer confidence( already plunged to 98 from 106 as predicted) , business spending, peaking out, facing squeeze in second half 2004, Job creation peaking out at March 370,000, May 230,000, June 80,000, July only 32,000 , despite Aug 112,000, stock prices peaking out in the second quarter, China and US, Global stocks bull markets are over, entering bear market consolidation.   US High tech, finance, housing, retails, auto share will give up all its 2004 gain plunge 30-50 % and trillion dollar loss in bond and stock markets repeating 1995 and 2000 and trillion dollar profits in oil, commodity futures investments
US inflation rate at 3.2 % in Aug., with business spending up 10 %, consumer confidence above 100 ISM at 66 are inflationary, facing excessive inventory built up, oil, soared to 50 and metals to new high, will drive up 20 sectors 5000 products costs and prices, more rate hikes are on its way to cool off the economy, bond yield will return to 4.0- 4.6 %
Global Capital Markets Asset prices tracking, forecasts:
Dr. Huang lectured to 50 European, Asian, Malaysian central banks, banking, finance executives Kuala Lumpur, Sept. 30, 2002 predicted that oil prices soared to 43, Dow Jones retest 7500 Nasdaq 1250, March 2003 on Asian Business Forum.   He lectured Nov. 2003 lectured to Euro-events Singapore http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/ photos 1, 2, 3 lecture ppt , Shanghai, Beijin Nov. Asian/China finance, capital Markets conferences, www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm2003   picture 2 and to China economists meeting Fudan University, Shanghai , Dec. over 2000 QFII/QDII executives, identify housing, equities wealth effect bubbles   month ahead, investment opportunities in China petrochemical upstream/downstream, steel, aluminum, telecommunications ADR , Shanghai A and Hong Kong H shares, mutual fund up 80 % IPO shares up 150 % and early warning for asset bubbles in oil, commodities prices reaching 23 year peak( recommended invested in future, derivatives gained 5000 %) in March 2004, will drive China CPI to 5 %, with steel, cement over-invested 170 % and energy shortage will lead to further credit tightening, accurately predicted China Peoples bank raise bank reserve ratio 0.5 % to 7.5 % open market inter-bank rate (Chibor)must stay above 3.% to remove 110 billion from the capital markets, US CPI to 5.1 %, core inflation to 2.7 % in the summer , overoptimistic over US economic recovery and job creation,( despite March strong 300,000 new jobs can not sustainable after June quarter tax rebate is over ( June job creation already down to 32,000) and inflation outlook may lead to rate hike after May and summer lead to serious bond market plunge (US lose 380 billion dollar, China lose 270 billion) housing bubble repeat 1995 bond market crash and 2000 election bubble and global IT and blue chips banking shares will peaking out in July facing and correction 2004, Market speculators using Dell 29 % profit gain to push Dell and High tech, and blue chips is premature, Dell will facing pricing cutting from HP in back to school sales and general economic slowdown, Dell stock will plunge below 30, IBM test 80. Google enjoyed 7 fold earning increase, it has PE of 145, and profit margin of only 12 %, stock price at 215 is extremly overpriced, repeating Yahoo of 2000,

the conference), and Singapore reflecting shrinking trade surplus and turning into trade deficit. US dollar plunge to 102 Yen from 147 at the time Greenspan announce interest rate cuts in winter 1998, as it's trade deficit soared to 26 billion due to wealth effect resulted soaring stock prices, import demand and tripled oil prices.

C. Simulation of The Onset of Global Stock Markets Crash Crisis Dynamics:- releasing overpriced stress
These global stock markets dynamic simulators tracking instantaneous markets reacting to rising interests rates, credit tightening ( to fight inflation and stabilize the currency, created credit crunch. The currency and stock markets crashed to it's rational level, to release it's overpriced stress to new equilibrium resulted trillion dollars loses . Global financial market analysts have short memory on the interest rate hike impact on stock prices despite interest rate hikes lead to Asian crisis which Thailand raised interest rate to 25 % to stabilized Bhat at 50, took the Bangkok SET index plunge 70 % from 1000 to 250, Hong Kong raised it's short term interest rate to 19 % to defend it's HK dollars stock to US dollar, took the Henseng index plunge 60 %(from 12500 to 6200),Singapore raised interest rate to 12 % to stabilize the currency, Singapore Strait Times drop 60 %, Taiwan Index down 48 % . US Dow Plunged from 11300 to 9000 , Nasdaq from 5100 to 1800 this year and EURO stocks retreat 20 % reacting to US Fed and ECB interest rate hikes to cool-off the overheated US, EURO stocks bubble in internet and biotech and housing, labor markets due to wealth effect created excessive consumer, business demand. Similar crisis onset in 1987 US Dow Jones, 1990 Japan cut money supply from 13 % to 5 % to cooloff the bubble economy due to soaring stocks, housing markets, took Nikkei plunge 38000 to 20000, Taiwan raise interest from 6 % to 14 % took stock plunge form 12400 to 2400 and in 1992 European currency, crisis took stock plunge 40 %, 1994 China runaway inflation caused by 100 % currency depreciation, Shanghai A index plunged from 1500 to 333, reacting to doubled interest rates hike and Mexico crisis peso and stock market plunge 50 % Brazil index plunged from 8500 to 5400 reacting interest rate hike from 40 % to 70 %
D. Simulation of the Spread and capital out flow, banking default of EURO, Asian and Global Currency Crisis:
Thousands expert systems based simulators tracking, simulating the causes and spread of the past major global financial market currency crisis, FDI capital In/outflow, banking default and risks in the last 20 years are due to global central banks and financial markets decision makers. The spread of global financial crisis and default risks are caused through excessive central banks money supply followed by global players capital inflow speculating the overheated financial markets and outflow created market plunge resulted nonperformance loan and credit default(simulation results shown in the conference demonstrated the spread of UK, EURO currency crisis in 1992, Thailand currency plunge spread into ASEAN country, Hong Kong, Taiwan, S Korea, Russia default resulted LTCM into US and EURO , Brazil and Japan and this year s trillion dollars market loses in US, Taiwan, Korea are of poor investment strategy in US properties, stocks and Asian stocks and manufacturing industries caught in excessive money supply and global short term capital (hot money) inflow resulted overheated bubble economy (skyrocketing properties, stock prices and labor costs, declining export, widening trade, current deficit,(with one billion trade deficit) Indonesia, Russia were complicated by internal political turmoil, resulted global player pulling capital outflow resulted currency, stocks, properties prices plunge .

E. Simulation of Global Monetary, Economic Policy, oil prices Impact on Post Recovery of Asian and Global Financial Markets Crisis:
These systems tracking, simulate the IMF rescue plan progress results and the recovery of ASEAN, Asian, Russia, Brazil and LTCM betting on the wrong of interest rates(US T-Bond and Fed fund rates) and bond yield spreads. And predicted US Fed three interest rate cuts lead to fast US and Asian stock market rebound and economic recovery:, reduce the interest rate spread ,took the pressure off Asian currency , dollar tumbled from 147 to 111 While most ASEAN and Asian troubled country benefited by high interest rate, falling commodities prices, reduced domestic demand, imports, cheap currency lead to soaring export and trade surplus(S. Korea has 40 billion ) and soaring export growth, are able to cut interest rates to the pre crisis level., and maintain stable currency, lead to stock markets more than tripled S. Korea already lead the recovery enjoy 11 % GNP Japan has 9 % GNP growth, Thailand, Hong Kong, Singapore return to 10 % growth., China back to 8.1 % Taiwan back to 7 % growth getting out of recession and deflation ..
These systems predicted on May 1999 Macao's central banks policy conference the first US interest rate hike to fight domestic inflation due to soaring oils prices, and demand, 5 other interest rate hikes in the author's 16 int'l conferences later (ref. 1-18)
These systems accurately predicted US and EURO 1999 last quarter excessive money supply for Y2K resulted soaring global stocks and housing markets(asset bubble), resulted wealth effect led to runaway consumer, business spending debt resulted labor shortage forced Greenspan took series interest rate hikes in 2000 to cool-off the stocks, housing markets, reduce consumer, business demand. These simulators accurately predicted in early 1999 that global financial markets analysts overoptimistic over second half 2000 and 2001 earning outlook Dow 15 % plunge, Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Thailand follow Nasdaq plunge 60 %, Dow plunged into 9100 bear market and US NAPM index plunge to 41.7 recession low resulted Greenspan 0.5 % rate cut with global high fliers internet, biotech IPO stocks plunge 50 % to 95 % will drag Asian stocks into 50 %, EURO stocks into 20 % correction .
Goal Mission, Performance oriented multidisciplinary Risk Operations Simulation Analysis(OSA) strategic and execution teams for risk management and restructuring, reengineering
Hundreds risks OSA teams have been implemented in Taiwan, China, US: ASEAN by the author , Integrating daily central banks monetary operation into banking, financial markets debt restructuring, pre and post merger integration performance improvement, transparency, supervision, Basal, Prudential Regulations tracking and prevent various financial systemic risk related nonperformance loan and credit defaults and government, banking, financial markets, corporate reform, reengineering , management, technological innovation to improve global competitiveness
On the job training workshops and Academic University Teaching and Research: The author has offered these methodology and systematic analysis to thousands risk management workshops in China, and Taiwan 14 major cities nationwide TV, radio program lectures to 30 million government, banking, finance executives, managers, investors and trained over 1000 chemical engineering, economics, global strategic management operations research senior and graduates teaching and research program`.
Pre and post crisis recovery Simulation results of EURO, Thailand, Japan, Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, China, Taiwan , US inflation, GNP, interest rates, FDI capital flow, bank defaults rate, properties prices, Currency, stock, bond index, profit margin and corporate stock prices simulation will be demonstrated in the conference
Monetary Policy Impact on Global Money, Currency, Stocks and Derivatives Markets Prices Risks simulation, control
Global central bankers have been facing daily challenges, risks from the macro economic growth ,financial market prices stability in the trillion dollar Asian, Russia, Brazil currency crisis and the mature financial markets turbulence like 1998 summer 4 billion dollar LTCM failure betting on the wrong side of interest rate, bond spread and global stock markets trillion dollars loses due to ignoring EURO, US interest hikes impact on global slowdown, corporate earning decline, stock prices plunge 50- 90 % and global credit crunch in 70 trillion dollar financial derivatives markets.
The global central bankers are playing dual role in provide prudent monetary policy to achieving nations price and growth stability and monitoring it𠏋 impact on the economics and daily financial market dynamics ( normal and crisis discontinuous) responses and supervising the banking industry providing prudent credit decisions to support the economic growth and healthy financial markets trading process.
Monetary Policy Impact on Global Economics ,Investment Banking, Financial Crisis, Systems Risks Simulation:

Monetary Policy impact on Derivatives for Global Strategic Cost Reduction and Risk Management:
Almost 100 trillion dollars have been traded for commodities, and financial derivatives extensively by the global financial industries for oil, gasoline, heating oil, raw material costs, interest rate, currency and markets risk reduction management, while hedging fund have exposed to three trillions dollars on the leverage fund management, which all relied on the current unreliable risk and options models, which required probability input and betting on the wrong side of the interest rates, currency and stock, bond prices. This paper will present our options/warrants prices models are much simpler and more reliable than Black-Schole formula. Since it provide direct tracking, simulation of central bankers monetary policy impact on interest rate, currency, financial, commodity futures prices , corporate profit margin and stock prices simulation and integrate into the financial derivatives call/put options, warrant calculation( striking price, date to expiration, and the simulation of current prices).

US housing prices bubble Simulation /Forecasts:
This equation predicted US 6 year economic expansion since 1995, Dow Jones tripled from 3600 to 11400 , Nasdaq soared 5 times lead to wealth effect pushed nationwide housing price index up 50 % in 2000 with some major high tech cities like San Francisco, Silicon Valley, Boston, NY, prices even tripled. These repeat bubble burst in 1990 Fed interest rate hike resulted price plunge 50 %
However Fed 6 rate hike led to new economy bubble burst in early 2000 and 2001 recession (accurtely predicted by Dr. Huang on www.sina.com ), Nasdaq plunged 70 %, Dow loss 30 %, resulted 4.5 trillion wealth effect loss drag US house prices plunge 20 to 40 %( in silicon valley. However, 11 rate cuts to 1.75 % and trillion dollar tax cuts led to 6 months US stock rally and wealth gain support the housing markets resulted prices rebound 10 %
Rate hike in the second half, poor busniess spendinig, high unnempllyment will kept prices in check
OSA/Japan: Macro economics and financial markets applications:
These equation indicated Japan enjoyed 9.6 % GDP growth at 13.5 % money supply growth and double digit export growth are excessive, inflationary in 1990 lead to Nikkei to 38000. And benefited by soaring export and BOJ stimulus package to boost the domestic demand boost the money supply from 4 % to 10 % and at zero interest rate Nikkei rebound from 15000 to 22500 lead Japan getting out of deflation in 2000. However US, EURO slowdown and rising oil prices lead to Japan trade deficit, export decline, US high tech stock plunge drag Japan money supply growth rate to 2 % ,Nikkei to 11500 , despite Bank of Japan inject money into the financial systems, buy back 368 billion stocks to remove banks nonperformance and boost money supply led to strong Nikkei rebound from 11600 to 13500,will facing resistance around 13000-14000. It can do little to stop global slowdown, Japan declining consumer spending and GDP contraction and 4.9 % high unemployment
Japan Housing prices bubble Simulation /Forecasts:
This equation predicted Japan housing prices soared 10 times during the late 1980
OSA/China Financial Markets and Economy Application:
How China avoided 1994 Financial Crisis and made soft-landing and 1998 Asian Financial Crisis Simulation:

This author with Ji and Dai spending half time in China during 1988 - 1998 implementing these relationships tracking Taiwan, Hong Kong and China peoples banks monetary policy impact on inflation and GNP and interest rate, Taiwan and RMB currency and stock markets prices. It accurately tracking and predicted daily China economy and financial markets activities, how the former Prime minister Zhu Rongji successfully managed China's monetary policy led China avoided possible financial crisis by successfully controlled the inflation, to bring it down from 35 % and 100 % currency depreciation to deflation of ?.5 %in 1999 and current 2.5 % by cutting the money supply growth from peak of 35 % in 1994 to 1996 15 % to achieve soft-landing and boost domestic demand to maintaining 15 % money supply growth 7.8 % GNP growth which lead to Shanghai stock index plunge from 1550 to 333 and stabilized traded between 600 and 800 during 1994 and 1996 through three stages credit tightening to cut the domestic demand and reduced the import duty by 30 % to reduce the importing inflation and implemented stock markets and financial institution regulation and full transparency, ban short term foreign capital speculation in the housing and stock markets achieved perfect soft-landing in 1996. And also predicted 1996 interest rate cuts leading to bull markets, with Shanghai A index tripled from 520 to 1650 . ( all predicted by the author on lectures to 20 million 15 cities TV, radio programs and national newspapers during 1994- 98 .The state enterprise reform and Asian crisis resulted high unemployment and export slowdown, pulling the money supply down from 1996?s 28 % to 14 % in 1999, drag the GNP form 9.5 % to 7.8 % . But recovered strongly by domestic stimulus package and strong export growth (40 %) this year in soaring global demand, . with GDP 8.3 % and Shanghai index soared to 2100 new high while global stocks under correction due to US interest rate hike
The declining export, 50 billion domestic public construction deficit budget and 150 billion short term debt and falling corporate profit and falling prices as entering WTO this year. China will feel the global slowdown early 2001 , as stock prices just completed under 10 % correction predicted by the author tracking of China macro, financial trade economic impact on 700 listed corporate industries trends, profit margins and stock prices
China Housing prices bubble Simulation /Forecasts:
This equation predicted China housing prices soared 10 times during 1986- 1994 as money supply growth soared form -5 % to 35 %, Beijin, Shanghai house prices soared 10 times, ranking top 5 in global prices, as Shanghai stock index soared from 150 to 1500 . Housing prices plunge 70 % as money supply growth plunge from 35 to 12 %, during 1994- 1998, It rebound 30 % as money supply growth from 12 % to 15 % in Asian crisis recovery in 1999 and government economic stimulus package, Shanghai index rebound from 520 to 2100 since 1999,.
OSA/ASEAN and OSA/Asian, OSA/Russia, OSA/South America Financial Crisis Root Causes Simulation:

These formulas indicated the rest of Asian emerging countries, Russia, Mexico, Brazil failed to do so, maintaining excessive money supply and growth, by encourage short term hot money speculating in housing and stock markets resulted soaring stocks and properties prices and labor costs caused export decline and huge trade and current account deficit, led to runaway currency depreciation and inflation, followed by rising interest rate and tight money supply resulted economic contraction between 5 % and 10 % started July of 1997 , the burst of the asset bubble and widening of bond yield spread
These formula provide global central bankers and IMF combined feedforward and feedback control of inflation GNP through micro-tuning policy, meeting growth and stability control without causing damage due to deflation and inflation

Monetary Policy Impact on daily Global Financial Markets Dynamics Simulations:
Monetary Policy and shocks, speculative attack impact on global Financial Markets dynamics under stress:

Global Interest Rates , Bond prices and spread, Debt Markets Dynamics , Credit, Market Risk Simulations
The global central bankers use the commodity prices and inflation rate as the leading indicators for setting the monetary policy and short term interest rates (inter-bank rate or Fed fund rate), while the long term interest rate bond yield are related to the dollar exchange rate which influence the capital flow
Short term Interbank or Fed fund rate =F (Money supply growth rate %, commodity index, oil price, inflation )
long term bond yield = F( money supply growth rate %, dollar exchange rate, inflation rate)

These formulas tracking, simulate global interest rate, bond prices dynamics accurately. It indicate that reduced demand due to Asian turmoil have drag down the global oils and , commodities prices and inflation,
US treasury and junk bond prices spread LTCM failure simulation :

The plunging oil prices during Asian Crisis allow US, China , Japan and EURO central banks applying expansionary monetary policy, which lead to falling interest rates and all time high in bond prices, US 30 yr ?T-Bond yield dropped below 4.5 % due to low inflation and strong dollar, while the junk Russia bond and US corporate bond was hurt by global financial crisis, especially Russia high inflation, plunge oil income lead to trade deficit and falling rubble , pushed yield to all time high led to widening spread summer 1998 as predicted by this formula, while LTCM speculate on Russia junk bond believe bond spread will converge below 2 %( it widening to 4 % instead) LTCM lead to US Fed three interest rate cut to 4.5 % to cut dollar strength, therefore the bond spread due to due to strong dollar and low inflation, oil prices
However, excessive money supply in 1998 lead to soaring US and global stocks, strong Asian recovery , with excessive money supply in winter 1999 for Y2K pushed global stocks even higher lead oil price doubled from 10 to 37, US inflation up from 1.1 to 3.5 % forced US 6 interest rate hike to 6.5 and EURO 7 interest rate hike to 4.75 % to cool off the soaring US stock market fueling consumer, business demand, pushing housing prices and labor prices bond yield soared from 4.5 % to 6.5%(with junk corporate bond yield soared to 13.5 %), due to falling dollar, rising inflation, plunging stock prices and concerned about asset bubble burst.
These deterministic models minimize risks , saving trillion dollar loses due to central bankers monetary policy risks, credit risks in developing countries, and betting on the wrong side of interest rates by LTCM and other banking and financial industry executives`

OSA/ASEAN, ASIAN and Russia, Brazil crisis applications While the troubled ASEAN and Asian countries and Russia, Brazil, Mexico central bankers have to tight the money supply, raising interest rates to fight inflation and stabilize the currency which caused by excessive money supply and currency depreciation, led to capital outflow, bond , stocks, plunge, bond yield spread soared to new high, instead of converge.

Monetary Policy, Trade Impact on Global Currency Exchange Rates Dynamics, Risks Simulation?
The Onset of global currency crisis:.

US dollar exchange rates are related to US and other countries trade deficit (or surplus) and the two countries interest rates spread

Over 100 IMF countries dollar currency exchange rates simulations have been used for 1000 chemical engineering and economics seniors course assignment by the author. Tracking results have been published in the weekly trade journal for 100,000 Taiwan's Taipei importer/exporters members daily trading decisions for 100 countries export/import strategy
This formula accurately predicted 1998 summer US dollar overpriced at 147 Yen, due to soaring Japan trade surplus against widening US trade deficit, US 3 interest rate cuts led dollar plunge 20 % to 110. And continue its down trend to 103. Yen plunged to 125 again this year as Japan suffer trade deficit due to soaring oil, prices, import, and export decline and stock prices plunged from 20000 to 11500 due to US, EURO slowdown, Japan high unemployment, decline consumer spending, falling interest rate,
And EURO plunge from 1.17 to current 0.83, as the union trade surplus plunged from 8 billion to widening trade deficit of 800 million due to soaring oil prices and import, despite ECB 7 interest rate hikes and intervention, recent oil price plunge below 25 and US economic slowdown pushed EURO to 0.95.
EURO and global major currency OSA forecasts as follows:
Asian, Russia, South American Currency Crisis, Risks Dynamics Simulation
The above formula tracking, simulating ASEAN, Asian troubled countries, Russian, Brazil daily currency dynamics before, at the onset of , during and after the crisis with average error below 1.5 %. It accurately predicted these central bankers must tighten money supply, raised interest rate to stabilize the exchange rate (increase the interest rate spread) due to rising trade and current account deficit.
Pre- currency crisis root causes Dynamic simulation :The excessive money supply and pouring foreign capital inflow led to ASEAN, Asian , Russia, Brazil economic boom and skyrocketing labor and properties, stock prices and wages, have cut into the export market competitiveness (against China's low labor costs), lead to soaring trade and current account deficit in Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Korean, Hong Kong, Brazil, Russia. This formula indicated fixed currency were overpriced(as shown)

Dynamics Simulation of onset and during the currency crisis
The widening of trade deficit to one billion US dollars lead to overprices currency : as the announcement of floating the currency lead to instantaneous currency deprecation according to this formula: Thailand, had to raise to interest rate from 15 % to 30 %, to stabilize the Baht exchange rate around 50(depreciated form 25), Hong Kong raised the interbank rate from 5 % to 25 % to allow the Hong Kong dollar stick to the 7.7), S. Korea has to raised the interest from 20 % to 40 % to prevent it drop to 2000 (depreciated from 750) , Indonesia had to raise interest rate from 20 % to 57 % to stabilize the Rupiah at 17000., Malaysia, Taiwan and Singapore, Australia all had to raise interest rates to stabilize their currency due to widening trade deficit, . The central bankers must raise the interest rate to stabilize their currency and fight inflation. Thailand, Korea, Hong Kong, Brazil, doubled interest rate Russia tripled the interest rate to fight inflation and stabilize currency , cut domestic consumption, thus improve trade and current account surplus.
OSA/Brazil central bank decision to float the Real currency, cut the interest rate to save the stock market, took the Real dropped from 1.1 to 2.4, help to boost the export, the stock responded to the interest rate cut, rebounded from 5000 to 9700, the global players are supporting the stock markets make it stick to Dow index (following Hong Kong style), despite Brazil economy under 4 % contraction and further tightening to cut expenses, Brazil interest rate, Real currency and impact on stock market have been simulated accurately
Dynamics simulation of Monetary Policy on UK, 11 EURO member countries currency, stocks Prices :
EURO currency :, it will have support around 0. 82- 0.84 . However weaker EURO will boost EMU export, plunging oil prices resulted union shrinking trade deficit to 800 million vs US 34 billion deficit, Rising EURO interest rate also help stabilize EURO currency to 0.88- 0.95-

currency simulation and currency crisis simulation will be demonstrated in my workshops
Monetary policy impact on global stock market indices cash and futures trading loses risks simulation:

Stock Index/Bond cash and future price are related to money supply growth, consumer, business spending and interest rate, dollar exchange rate

This relationship simulated last 20 years 40 daily international stock market stock indices, including normal and major crisis (under stress discontinuous data) with average error below 1.5 %. It predicted 1987 crash as FED raise fund rate 0.75 %: recent Nasdaq plunge form 5100 to 1800 as Fed 6 interest rate hike and 1995 Baring betting on the wrong side of Nikkei Index. And 1990 Nikkei crash from 38000 as Bank of Japan tightening the money supply growth from 13 % to 5 %
OSA/US Dow Jones Index risk dynamics simulation:,

1987 crash :The high US inflation rate (6.5% ) complicated by the Iranian war in early Oct. 17, 1987, pushed the oil price to 25, lead US Fed credit tightening, reduce the money supply growth from 9 % to 7 %,, raised the Fed fund rate from 9 % to 9.75%, the Dollar Yen exchange rate drop from 150 to 136, took the Dow instantaneously crashed from 2250 to 1520 It also indicate the Dow responding to 1998 winter 3 Fed fund rate cut , each 25 base point corresponding to raise the consumer spending and pushed Dow 800 points ( the first rate cut pushed money supply from 6.9 % at the credit crunch, Dow rebounded from 7400 bottom to 8200, the second rate cut pushed money supply from 8.5 % to 9.5 %, pushed Dow from 8200 to 9000, while the third rate cut led to overheated stock and properties prices and speculation, the money supply growth pushed to 10.5 % in January, took the Dow marching toward 10,000 and making new highs in mid March, due to high money supply growth of 10 .5% and three Fed fund rate cuts to 4.5 %,dollar plunge 20 % to boost export (IC and computer industry are benefited)
and US 6 rate hikes to cooloff consumer spending from 9 % to 5 % pulled Dow 20 % to 9100, as shown Chart Nasdaq down 80 % to 11 50, EURO 7 rate hikes drag EURO stocks 55 % as indicated

Pre-and post merger acquisition performance simulation
The industry failed in pre-and post merger acquisition performance simulation in billion dollar mega merger created even huge loss and debt
Global Oils, Petrochemicals Industry Corporate Pre and Post Mergers/ Acquisitions OSA(Jan 20, 2000
Exxon-Mobil merger:
Based on the author's associated with both Mobil and AMOCO headquarters, both company although enjoyed over 135 % gain in profits downstream refining, petrochemical operations are hurt by soaring crude oil prices, cut into profit margin to only 6.5 % , 15,000 staff cut to save 3.5 billion payroll cost may not improve it's post merger integration performance as oil prices peaking out and the strict environment standard on restriction MTBE additive in gasoline as it happen in Compaq, Boeing and others.) stock prices will be below 100. It need to do more in the post merger acquisition integration and improve on the procurement, refining operation strategic improvement, which can cut billion dollars and expand margin to above 10 %

However BPAMOCO merger is more goal oriented in global diversification, It invested 20 % in China's national co PetroChina, and strengthen it's global marketshares, stock price at 50 is attractive will be traded in 50-72
The author have development Over ten thousands of artificial intelligence, neural net, fuzzy logic, chaos algorithms based daily global interest rates, currency rates, commodity, oils, petrochemicals feedstock, products , financial futures, options prices, corporate profitability and stock prices Operations Simulations Analysis expert systems, and implemented for US, Asian Pacific, European multinational oil, petrochemicals, information, biotech industry corporate investment banking, government, state enterprises reform, privatization, restructuring, reengineering, pre and post merger/acquisitions applications during the last 30 years with Mobil, AMOCO, Phillips Petroleum, Stauffer Chemicals US headquarters (subsidiary of Rhone Poulenc) (These systems have been recommend by US Hydrocarbon Processing Advanced Control and Information Management, Productivity and Quality, Process Design & Optimization Handbook during 1991- 1997, Over 1000 major cos from 65 US, European, Asian Pacific, South American countries including EXXON, Dupont, BP, Shell, BASF, Aramco, Sinopec, IBM, Merck . In addition to thousands corporate managers contacted 32 OSA based corporate pre and post merger/acquisitions restructuring, reengineering performances analysis )and strategy, tracking, simulate daily US Fed and global central bankers monetary policy, interest rates, currency, Asian financial crisis and it's impact on global global commodity, industrial raw materials, financial futures, options prices, corporate profitability, stock prices. He has directed over 1000 senior graduate chemical engineering . students to develop OSA approach to 60 refinery, petrochemicals, fibers, plastics process simulations and corporate global strategic management applications for oil, petrochemicals industry pre and post merger/acquisition restructuring, reengineering and performances improvements simulation, investment, risk management for helping 20 millions global corporate CEO, finance, import/ export, currency, equities trading, procurement, marketing managers, investors to take advantage of investment opportunities in last 20 years financial crisis through the joint academic-industry training centers setup, in OSA goal mission, performance oriented OSA teams directed by Dr. Warren Huang to provide on the job training for oil, petrochemicals industry corporate managers in pre and post merger/acquisition daily decision analysis
US weekly Fed and European, Asian central bankers money supply, fund rate, Asian Financial Crisis, Yen exchange rate and new product development impact on daily BP AND AMOCO pre and post mergers performance OSA

Pre mergers OSA: Oils and Petrochemical industries are badly hurt by the Asian turmoil and strong dollar .The global oils and petrochemcials, plastics, fibers feedstock's and products have been dropped to ten years low due to Asian demand slow down and currency depreciation. It continued to suffered by soaring oil prices to 37 resulted heavy loss. in the post crisis recovery

Post mergers OSA: The Cross continent mergers involved different cultural background and management concept may reduce some manpower costs in the immediate future, However, It still requires this authors over 30 years experiences in implementing quality, cost, market shares goal, mission, performance oriented cross functional pizza chart OSA strategic and execu tion OSA teams for US, European, Asian Pacific multinationals provide unified manage ment concept, procedures and decision methods supporting new corporate restructuring, reengineer ring efforts to reduce feedstock, inventory costs and process efficiency improvement with expanded market shares.
Stock investment strategy: but both have to face the increasing competition in the oils petroch micals industry. BPAMOCO will be traded between 47and 55,
Finance group mega merger Citigroup of Traveler caought in Russia crisis, stock plunged from 75 to 29 presented by this author on JP Morgan sponsored post EURO banking and finance integration and risk management strategy Nov. 26, 1998, Rome Italy

He warned banking finance industry mega merger emphasized on staff reduction benefit and diversification , ignored post merger integration improvement on risk management decision making resulted Citigroup, UBS billion dollar loss in Russian, and LTCM crisis.

He accurately predicted Chase 36 billion dollar merge JP Morgan will give all it's gain to 110, Chase plunge to 35
and JDSU 100 billion inflated high cost merger SDL will cause operating hardship , stocks will subject to 50-70 % plunged, JDSU plunged from 160 to 30, SDL from 400 to 100
Monetary Policy Impact on Global Capital Markets Prices, Investment Strategy
Monetary policy impact on global stock market indices cash and futures trading loses risks simulation:
Stock Index/Bond cash and future price = F (M2 money supply growth, interest rate, dollar exchange rate)
This relationship simulated last 20 years 40 daily international stock market stock indices, including normal and major crisis (under stress discontinuous data) with average error below 1.5 %. It predicted 1987 crash as FED raise fund rate 0.75 %: recent Nasdaq plunge form 5100 to 3000 as Fed 6 interest rate hike and 1995 Baring betting on the wrong side of Nikkei Index. And 1990 Nikkei crash from 38000 as Bank of Japan tightening the money supply growth from 13 % to 5 %
Global Asset Prices Simulation and Portfolio Investment Strategy(Two master hands controlling global stock prices)
This author have been successfully applying two master hands accurately tracking simulating, forecasts monetary policy impact on global daily Over 30 million China, Taiwan government, banking, finance, corporate CEO, fund managers, analyst, traders, investors have been benefited by this author lecture on two master hands controlling global stocks prices to China's 12 cities , Taiwan TV, radio daily, weekly commentary , and workshops since 1987
Global Stock Index Simulation :The right master hand simulate last 20 years monetary policy impact on daily stock index

This right master hand pinpoint the risks of overheated investor sentiments (monetary policy tell you do not chase index when they are too hot, when every fundamental and technical analysts recommending bull market continue,, investors chasing ( the author warned on July 20 1998 Dow approaching 9500, is overheated for 20 % correction, Next day Greenspan warning on inflation and rate hike, drag Dow to 7500 and Jan 2000, Dr. Huang warned on www.sina.com and www.osawh.com that Nasdaq overheated for correction to 2000 , It plunge from 5100 to 2000 later

Global corporate earning, profit margin simulation (Left master hands)

Corporate margin/earning = F( Sales, Costs) = F (raw material, financial, labor costs, sale prices)=F (monetary policy, currency)
US refinery opera ting profit margin is very much depend on the crude oil cost, refining products gasoline, heating oil prices . the relation is shown on Chart the margin varies from 3 % 9 %

Global Corporate Stock Prices Simulation :
The left master hand simulate last 20 years monetary policy impact on daily industrial supply, demand, prices, profit margin: raw material, financial, labor costs, sales and unit prices, corporate earning, profit margin

global stock prices = F (Global stock index, corporate profit margin/earning)

The left master hand will tell you how monetary policy impact on the industrial sectors supply demand, prices corporate earning, profit margin stock prices?decline is over, when everybody is selling ready for turnaround
Therefore combing right master hands( investors sentiment) and the left master(corporate performance) will accurately predicted last 20 years global stock prices (hot stocks, ADR, IPO)

Hi-tech IPO stock prices simulation = F( Nasdaq index, corporate or industry group earning)

These two master hand controlling IPO prices as well
For Internet stock index are related to US Fed money supply growth, interest rate and investor sentiment (Nasdaq index), as for individual internet IPO stock prices, they are related to the internet stock and Nasdaq index (investor sentiment in internet) and corporate revenue and earning outlook(depend on industry trend and regional economy.

Global ADR shares prices = F( Home country investor sentiment, listed country investor sentiment, stock earning, margin) = F ( home country stock index, US Nasdaq index, corporate earning)
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Click here for Chinese edition Global Banking, Financial Crisis Simulation, Forecasts, Risk Management
presented by OSA pioneer Dr. Warren Huang to 20 Asian, US, EURO, ASEAN central banks governors, financial management conferences 1999- S.OSA- Asset Bubble Burst- Simulation of Greenspan Aug 27 , 1999, March 20, 2001 speech on focus on stock markets asset bubble burst in Global Stock prices impact on house, business spending, housing properties prices,, GDP and central banks Monetary Policy
A. OSA-Country Risks: Country inflation/Deflation economic and business cycle, capital flow, currency, systemic credit, nonperformance loan, banking crisis and default risks simulation and control
B. OSA-Credit Risk: Macro-economic imbalance, currency, commodity, interest rate, stocks bond, derivative market trading, policy, operation , liquidity default risks simulation, control, C. OSA-Commodity: Policy, currency, oil prices, supply/demand impact on Energy, Feed grain, food,metals, fibers futures and derivative prices resulted trading loss simulation.
D. OSA-Currency: Interest rate spread, trade impact on daily global currency , and it's derivatives prices dynamicsthe onset of currency crisis risks simulation and control
E. OSA-Interest Rate: Policy, currency, inflation, commodity price shocks impact on short , long term interest rate, treasury and corporate bond spread and it's derivatives prices risks simulation , control
F. OSA- Market Risk; Policy, external shocks impact on global money, currency, stocks, derivatives markets price risks simulation, control
G. OSA-Merger RIsk: Policy, external shocks, technology innovation impact on pre/post merger/acquisition cost/benefit, profit margin, stock prices performance risks simulation, control.:
Big is not beautiful, it is EURO banking and finance integration and risk management strategy Nov. 26, 1998, Rome Italy
He warned banking finance industry mega merger emphasized on staff reduction nbenefit and diversification , ignored post merger integration improvement on risk management decision making resulted Citigroup, UBS billion dollar loss in RUssian, and LTCM crisis.

Dr Huang accurately predicted Chase Manhatten 36 billion dollar merge JP Morgan failed to supportDow above 11200 it will be another one day rally, finance, JMP will give all it's gain to 150, Chase plunge to 45 drag Dow down to test 10200 soon as Chase- JPM merger will not help boost the stock market trading volume, while facing addition market slump related crisis as both companies already experienced) 12/9/200)
Goldman Sach(GS)merger Spear Leed, stock market maker for 7 billion will not help GS near term perfo rmance due to IPO slowdown and falling stock prices and trading volume. GS shares will test 120 .(11/9/2000 HWP as predicted by Dr. Huang will testing 100. dispite HWP merge Pricewaterhouse for 17 billion are too expensive, will not help ne ar term HWP profit margin. HWP will be testing 100 (11/9/2000)
UBS offered 11.6 billion to merge Donaldson Lufkin
( the merger is too expensive and risky for UBS which just recoverd billion dollars loese in 1998 RUssian and LTCM crisis , will face markets slump risk in year end. UBS share will be down in the range 110 ans 150
Globa banking and finance stocks are overpriced through speculated on waves of global finance mega mergers in Duetsch bank- Banker Trust, and other mergers can not improve it's near term peroformance in global slowdown in loaan demand, slumping stock prices and even exposed to biger nonperformance loan default risks. These stocks prices will give all it's gain in the earning decline news month aheadOSA-Procurement: Monetary policy, macroeconomic, currency, oil price shock impact on global oil, petrochemicals, plastics, fibers, commodities, semiconductor raw material prices strategic procurement management I.OSA-Real Estate Risk: Monetary policy, commodities prices shock, stock markets wealth effect, inflation, capital flow impact on residential, office properties prices and rent, nonperfromance loan risk simualtion, control ,
K. OSA Eonomic,Business Cycle Risk:: Monetary policy, external shock impact on inflation, GNP, unemployment, wages, consumer confidence, auto, housing, appliance, electronic demand, export, purchasing managers index etc.
L. Profit Margin and accounting malpractice risks: Simulation of monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact supply, demand, prices,profit margin, provide pre-warning of ENRON, TYCO, Global Crossing accounting malpractices. dollar, Taiwan NT dollar dropped 30 % Settings/Warren/My Documents/My Webs/myweb6/">www.osawh.com/ size="1" color="#000000">𠏋 as money 1994𠏋 peak of color="#000000">鮰lobal stocks index size="2">國際經濟,金融市場危機風險控制
2001

risky: presented by Dr. Huang on JP Morgan sponsored post face="Arial" size="2" color="#FF0000">

Contact : Whuang3928@aol.com Fax : 1-510-524-4484( San Francisco, USA) Copyright 2002 www.osawh.com/ Dr. Warren Huang

Contact : Whuang3928@aol.com Fax : 1-510-524-4484( San Francisco, USA)
Copyright 2002 www.osawh.com/ Dr. Warren Huang