Goal: Dynamic tracking simulation the root causes, onset, recovery of ASEAN currency crisis, Asian financial crisis and US new economy bubble burst, EURO economic slowdown impact on Singapore macro GNP, inflation, export, interest rates, currency, stocks, commodity, electronics, products, properties prices impact on consumer and business spending, to predict, forecast overpriced asset prices resulted consumers spending imbalance and business profit slump due to central banks raising interest rates to cool off the economy, leading to bubble burst and abrupt change in consumer and business confidence caused stock prices plunges with average error below 1.5 %, correlation constant above 0.95.
>Monetary Policy on global stock prices,: Global stock prices and monetary policy impact on consumer and business spending. Global stock prices, monetary policy impact on housing properties prices and rent Global stock prices, monetary policy impact on GDP macro-economics performance. Global stock prices, monetary policy impact on procurement manager index Global stock prices, monetary policy impact on consumer and business confidence Global stock prices, monetary policy impact on saving rate. Global stock prices, monetary policy impact on corporatesupply chain costs, profit margin Global monetary policy, external shocks( commodities, oils prices, currency and credit default) impact
on burst, burst, abrupt change of consumer, business confidence (Asian crisis, LTCM, US Nasdaq plunge, SOuth American crisis))Dr. Warren Huang
accurately predicted 1997 Thailand and ASEAN currency crisis and 1998 summer on osawh.com
and Rome speech that the falling oil, commodity prices and strong dollar will lead
to US cut interest rates , to allowed Asian coubntries cut interest rate
to pre crisis level, stock rebound strongly lead to increased Thailand and Asian
export growth, consumer demand, and recovery.
Dr. Huang also accurately predicted on 1999 May Macao central bank governors
conference that US Fed will raise fund rate in June 1999 due to soaring stocks,
properties, oil prices, which will take US stocks and Asian stock prices into minimum 15 %
correction, and some internet stock with 50 -90 % corrections, Dow Jones will test 9,100,
Nasdaq test 1500, Henseng test 12000, Nikkei test 12,000, Bangkok index down to 260,
Taiwan index down to 4500 with asset bubble simulation models on Macao's
central bank governors conference, Taipei's Pacific Basin finance conference and
Washington DC NASD conferences.during April and May 1999. and 2001 Asian Pacific
Finance conference in Bangkok, July 24, and keynote speech on Supply chain strategy
conference/ workshop in Singapore,Apr 26-27
Indonesia OSA:
Indonesia export is benefited by Asian recovery and US, EURO demand,
currency depreciation soaing oil prices boosted it's
economic recovery, during 1999-2000. However it was effected by global slowdown, IT bubble
burst. oil price plunge and political instability. It still enjoyed 4 % GDP
growth last year Jarkata stock index rebound to 500 from 300 and rebound
in consumer and business confidence and spending as oil price surge and political
stability . However is hurt badly by plungeing oil prices(from 37 to 16 and import
prices and US Nasdaq plunge 65 % resulted IT bubble burst, and product demand,
prices plunge resulted export plunge 20 % resulted shrinking trade surplus
put pressure on currency peso. However benefited by US and global recoery,
soaring oil prices, trade surplus at 25 billion support strong currency traded
8500- 9500
manufacturing production index : soared 14
% due to strong export and domestic demand in 2000, it decline 15 % in 2001 lead to
pulling out of recession slowly by US and Asian recovery
Benefited by US recovery, and soaring oil price getting out of recession in the
second quarterf 2002
Export : Benefited by strong US and Asian recovery demand,
oil price pick 20 % export growth at up 15 % from 4 % in 2000 However, US
slowdown lead to export slowdown, and falling oil prices lead to
10 % decline in industrial production and export .is picking up slowly will stop decline
Import : up due to rising oil, raw material import prices ,
auto durable goods, retail sales
Trade Surplus :soaring surplus due to soaring oil prices
increasing export
Currency : Up 9800 to 9000 due to rising trade surplus will be
traded between 7800-9500
Stock Index : Down from 580 to 300 due to US slowdown , recovered
to 500 is overheated will follow Dow, Nasdaq retreat and Soaring oil prices ,
will be traded berween 350 and 500
Agricultural , Food prices: Up 10 % due to rising global commodities prices will
be stabilize while fuel prices up 30 % in summer.
Inflation still under control: 14-16 %
Interest rate: 15- 17 %
GDP growth rate %: hurt by soaring oil
prices and high initerest rate cut consumer spending GDP, will be 4 % -5
%
These deterministic, dynamic simulation of last 20 years global asset prices, and economy
boom and bust of the asset bubble vicious cycle of excessive monetary policy, low interest
rate induced sustained long term bull markets stocks prices gain caused consumer and
business spending in real estate properties pushed soaring housing prices and rent. And
deficit spending (negative saving) in stock markets, pushed the stock s even higher, until
abrupt reverse of consumer and investor confidence --the bubble burst- plunge of stocks
and properties prices as it happened in US, Japan, Taiwan in 1980, 1987, 1990, energy
crisis, EURO 1992 currency crisis, 1994 China runaway inflation, 1995 Mexico crisis,
1997-98 ASEAN, Japan, Korea, Russia, Brazil currency crisis, all caused by overpriced
stock prices due to excess monetary policy and high GDP growth
USA
China Thailand
Taiwan Japan
Hong Kong Korea
Singapore Indonesia
Canada Mexico