July 2009

Goal: Dynamic tracking simulation the root causes of  ASEAN currency crisis,  Asian financial crisis impact on   Indian macro GNP, inflation, export,  interest rates, currency,  stocks, commodity, properties prices impact on consumer and business spending, to predict, forecast overpriced asset prices resulted consumers spending imbalance and business profit slump due to central banks raising interest rates to cool off the economy, leading to bubble burst and abrupt change in consumer and business confidence caused stock prices plunges with average error below 1.5 %, correlation constant above 0.95.

• Monetary Policy on global stock prices,:
• Global stock prices and monetary policy impact on consumer and business spending.
• Global stock prices, monetary policy impact on housing properties prices and rent
• Global stock prices, monetary policy impact on GDP macro-economics performance.
• Global stock prices, monetary policy impact on procurement manager index
• Global stock prices, monetary policy impact on consumer and business confidence
• Global stock prices, monetary policy impact on saving rate.
• Global stock prices, monetary policy impact on corporate profit margin
• Global monetary policy, external shocks( commodities, currency and credit default) impact
  on burst, burst, abrupt change of consumer, business confidence (Asian crisis, LTCM)

= Shanghai/Beijin Euro-events   Conference/in-house workshops Announcement ===========
==  China Finance, Capital Market Summit  Conference/in-house workshops ====
You are welcome to join Dr. Huang lecture to Shanghai lectures to  Euro-Events  China Finance and Capital Market  SUMMIT conference and booth at Grand Ballroom , 500, Weihai Rd. , Four Seasons Hotel,  Nov. 25 and  Beijin  Nov.  27 to 400  China  government regulation, banking, finance ,  QFII, corporate CEO, CFO, executives on Monetary, economic, fiscal policy WTO impact on China economy and capital market asset prices, bubble, simulation, risk management  He will demonstrate his successful experience in predicting 1994-96 macroeconomic control soft-landing (offered thousand nationwide TV, radio daily tracking lecturing and 100 banking, finance companies risk management) and current China Peoples Bank credit tightening
 www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm2003
Other Asian countries  by reservation  osawhh@citiz.net   or  wh3928@yahoo.com Dr. Warren Huang speak to Shanghai Finance and Economic University China Finance for sustainable growth Shanghai Oct. 25  and Dec. 20 to Peking University Chine economic research center sponsored China economic society annual meeting at Fudan University  on Strategic China  Banking, Finance, Enterprises Reform  introducing OSA simulation models. on-China capital market asset prices simulation, bubble early warning Monetary , economic, fiscal policy , foreign investments impact on China  capital market  industrial sectors market  forces in market economy,  demand, prices mechanism, profit margin, investment return and risk management 
He will offer Shanghai  full day in house CEO/CFO financial managers  China capital market , banking, finance, reform and capital market asset prices  mechanism  SUMMIT workshops   Nov. 28-Dec 18
===  Singapore Asia Finance, Capital Market Summit  Conference/in-house workshops ====
Dr. Huang will speak to Singapore Euro-Events Asian Finance and Capital Market  SUMMIT conference Nov.5  three  hundred Asian government regulation, , banking, finance , corporate CEO, CFO, executives on Monetary, economic, fiscal policy WTO impact on Asian economy and capital market asset prices, bubble, simulation, risk management  http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/  with excellent feedback photos 1, 2, 3 lecture ppt
Other Asian countries by reservation  osawhh@citiz.net   or  wh3928@yahoo.com
and 1998 summer on osawh.com and Rome speech  that the falling oil, commodity prices and strong dollar will lead to  US  cut interest rates , to allowed  Asian countries cut interest rate to precrisis level, stock rebound strongly lead to increased Thailand and  Asian export growth, consumer demand, and recovery. 
Dr. Huang also accurately predicted  that US Fed will raise fund rate in June due to soaring stocks, properties, oil prices, which will take US stocks and Asian stock prices into minimum 15 % correction, and some internet stock with  95 % corrections, Dow Jones will test9500- 10,000, Nasdaq test 2000- 2400, Henseng test 12000, Nikkei test 17,000, Bangkok index down to 250, Taiwan index down to  5,000 with  asset  bubble  simulation models on Macao's central bank governors conference, Taipei's Pacific Basin finance conference and Washington DC NASD conferences.during April and May 1999.

Indian  OSA:
Indian  export  is benefited by  Asian recovery and soaring China demand and US, EURO demand rebound  for IT  software outsourcing products( boosted it's  economic recovery,  Enjoyed    5.8 % GDP growth in 2000   Stock index rebound to 6000  are overheated, will follow US Nasdaq 20 % correction to 4500  and continue consolidation as US and China rate hike ( in recent post election bubble burst )from 1998 bottom of 3200  
However is hurt badly by soaring oil prices  import prices and demand,  lead to widening trade deficit of  1.1 billion per month  which put pressure on Indian Rupee  traded 44- 46 Despite recent rate cut to 4.4 %,
Private investment index: benefited by strong export,   stock index, this index soared  80 %is facing correction this year
money supply growth  13 %  leading to rebound in properties prices
Private consumption  index: excess demand benefited by strong export,   stock index, this index soared  30 % leading to rebound in  demand for computer, auto durable goods, retail sales  
manufacturing  production index : soared    7.6 % due to China  strong export and domestic demand.
Export : hurt by by   China slowdown, US , glovbal recession,  US and Asian recovery demand, IT prices plunge    export growth at up 20 %  falling   IT prices will  widening trade deficit Rupee   down to 47  will help export.
Import : up due to rising oil, raw material import prices   in  computer, auto durable goods, retail sales and , crude oils, import,
Trade  Deficit: Up from  0.5  billion to 1.1 Billion  due to soaring oil prices increasing import .
Rupee Currency : Widening trade deficit  will be traded between  47- 48
Agricultural , Food prices: down 25 -50 % due to falling   global commodities prices and  
Inflation  up 8.7- due to soaring oil , commodity prices, domestic demand
Interest rate:   3.5  %, facing upward pressure next year
GDP growth rate %:   GDP  5.5 %  
Daily most active stocks OSA forecasts:
Stock Index : follow US Nasdaq rebound already doubled from March low facing  correction 
Daily most active stocks OSA forecasts:

Indian  ADR shares prices OSA,  asset bubble earning warning,

Name	Symbols	outlook.  early warning	trading range
Infosys	INFY	increasing demand for software outsourcing	60- 80
HDF  Bank	HDFC	increasing loan demand	25- 35-
Indian Petrochem	IPCGP	soaring feedstock cost, demand,	10- 11
Reliance Industries	RILYP	soaring cost, demand	18- 21

 These deterministic, dynamic simulation of last 20 years global asset prices, and economy boom and bust of the asset bubble vicious cycle of excessive monetary policy, low interest rate induced sustained long term bull markets stocks prices gain caused consumer and business spending in real estate properties pushed soaring housing prices and rent. And deficit spending (negative saving) in stock markets, pushed the stock s even higher, until abrupt reverse of consumer and investor confidence --the bubble burst- plunge of stocks and properties prices as it happened in US, Japan, Taiwan in 1980, 1987, 1990, energy crisis, EURO 1992 currency crisis, 1994 China runaway inflation, 1995 Mexico crisis, 1997-98 ASEAN, Japan, Korea, Russia, Brazil currency crisis, all caused by overpriced stock prices due to excess monetary policy and high GDP growth
USA        China      Thailand       Taiwan      Japan      Hong Kong     Korea        Singapore    Indonesia     Canada  Mexico


Website : www.osawh.com email: whuang@osawh.com / whuang3928@aol.com
Tel 1-510-524-0283 Fax 1-510-524-4484
Services: Bubble Burst simulation and prevention Workshops , On the Job Training program : OSA Strategic, execution teams All supported by simulation charts for training simulators.

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