osawh.com
Welcome to the World of Global Strategic
Equity Research:
Proactive, Structural Dynamic Operations Simulation Analysis (OSA) of daily
Global Equity Market Operations, Strategic Asset Allocation and Risks
Management:
(workshops )
Chinese (¤¤¤å)
Monetary, Economic, Fiscal Policy Impact on
Capital Markets Old and New
Economics Asset Prices, Bubbles,
International Corporate Finance
Simulation, Maximize Basel II Risks Adjusted Return Strategic
Credit Default , Financial, Currency Crisis, Risks Prevention, Accounting Scandals
Early Warning
=======================================================================================
Strategic Breakthrough Innovation Change Management Maximize Basel II Risk Adjusted Sustainable Profit, Market
Share Growth
Provide the most independent, reliable tracking
forecast month ahead of monetary, economic, fiscal, WTO policy impact
on last 20 years global economy,
oil , commodity prices, capital markets asset prices, and Wall Street daily markets prices mechanism simulation,
forecast month ahead the emerging market trend, provide crisis, risks early warning
achieve Sustainable Profit as Goal,
Mission Performance oriented Problem Solving Proactive Research Technique: Mission Impossible!:
Quantify unknown, uncertainty future.
Dr. Warren Huang key note
speech and workshop for China oil, gas, LNG, LPG conference Feb 24-25,
2005, Beijin on
A. China Economic , energy policy
reform, rates hike impact on oil, gas demand, prices and gas
industry structures
B. Challenges, Opportunities,
Risks, return in US/ China macroeconomic control impact on natural gas, LNG, LPG
demand, futures prices market forces mechanism and investments
risk adjusted return
C.Global / China oil, gas, LNG Project financing operation,
markets, credit, policy risks management workshop
including the causes, onset, spread, recovery,
early warning of China/global energy crisis, supply bottleneck and policy,
manufacturing energy conservation, de-bottlenecking reserve by
osawhh@citiz.net
Goal and
Mission
Hundred
thousands integrated, global structural, dynamics, deterministic
proprietary Capital Market Asset Prices Models (CAPM) simulators
first time shown on this website
the most reliable global stock indices , currency OSA simulation charts
Breakthrough innovation in Proactive Structural Dynamic
Global
Economic Policy Systems Simulation:
Monetary
macroeconomic policy Financial
Economics Industrial
Economy
Regional Economy
Investment banking,
Capital Markets Asset Prices,
Global Trade Economics
Breakthrough Innovation in Global Capital Market Equities
Market Prices Valuation Models
The only and most reliable structural dynamic deterministic decision
simulators tracking, forecasts months ahead last 20 years global economic,
financial crisis, asset bubble, and daily capital market asset (
interest rate, currency, commodity, equities, stocks, bond futures,
derivatives ) prices market forces mechanism,
avoided trillion dollar market loss and billion dollar supply chain cost due to current probabilistic models
based , speculation over daily economic, business news, technical charting
market momentum based capital market asset prices and risks models ( CAPM ), presented to
24 US, European, China, Taiwan , Asian central bank governors, financial risks
and wealth management , futures, derivatives prices forecasts conferences
and on this website www.osawh.com
tracking daily results , visited by million global government, central banks,
banking, finance, corporate executives universities since 1998.
China Macroeconomic control tracking, forecasts:
China started second phase credit tightening, rate
hike series begin.
China finally raised prime rate by 0.27, to cool off the asset bubble, with
structural rate hike, floating loan upper limit from 5.6- 12.5 %, Oct.
28, 2004, accurately predicted by Dr. Huang last Nov. 2003 in
Euro-events Singapore, Shanghai, Beijing, Asian/China finance, capital
market conference and May 8, 15, 2004 to San Francisco Silicon Valley
Finance radio and Global Finance Forum, Hi tech investment seminar, Silicon
Valley and on this website, visited by million global central banks,
banking, finance, corporate executives.
Global central banks ignoring Dr. Huang's warning on this website and global
conferences, underestimated global economic recovery resulted inflation,
demand for housing, manufacturing, auto pushed oil, metal prices to new high
and rising cost, prices to 5000 upstream /downstream raw materials, products
resulted US Fed raising rate , too little, too late, China delaying
rate hike to effectively cut market demand led to China Sept. CPI
inflation up 5.2 % again and third quarter GDP growth still at 9.1 % due to
increasing business ( up 28 %)and consumer demand up 14 % ,will
facing soaring inflation from current 5.3 % to 6.6 % in winter peaking
holiday demand season . Despite China Peoples Bank raised
deposit ratio by 1.5 % and cutting capital investment in steel, cement,
aluminum, auto loan lead to some progress macroeconomic control with
Sept. money supply growth at
13.6 % (below 17 % target), auto sales up only 10 %, asset prices, inflation
followed soaring oil price to 55, all time high metal prices coastal cities Beijin,
Shanghai GDP up 14 %) from year ago, wealth effect, FDI drive Aug national housing prices up
14.8 % ( 2750 ) and 28 %for coastal cities Shanghai, Ninbo, Sept. retail sale up
13.2, China third quarter GDP up 9.1 % far above 7 % target, medium,
long term loan up 28.4 % repeat 1994, call the need for interest
rate hike to cool off the consumer and housing demand in winter
holiday peak season .
soaring China steel, cement,
aluminum investment (over 120 %), coal, energy shortage, stocks prices
recent rebound from 1250 to 1470 speculating over Premier's statement
over stock market stability is overheated ( accurately predicted by Dr.
Huang on this website and already retreat to 1300)) market is over, continue bear
market technical rebound ( within 20 % and consolidation, with Shanghai A testing 1250- 1500, IPO and newly listed
small cap shares plunge 30-50 % with most testing its IPO price, low prices blue chips shares like Sinopec,
Unicom will lead future rebound 20 %.
, This supply side tightening
are insufficient to cool the uneven economic overheating,
as China raised key interest rate by 0.27 % and
implement structural rate hikes in late Oct. as predicted by Dr.
Haung to cut off excessive consumer , business demand in housing,
construction materials, auto and retails demand . to cool off soaring
housing and metals prices, and serious energy , electricity , coal shortage, and transportation,
communication bottleneck and further delay soft landing
into second half . 2005, as China Peoples Bank will cut money supply growth
below 10 % and GDP below 8 %.
He also predicted Oct. 1994 to China Wuhan securities news, Wangguo, Kuotai securities investors, Beijin China Financial Times, China
macroeconomic control will be soft-landing 1996, Shanghai A will be traded
between 600- 800 during 1994- 1996 He recommended that China stocks will be very
attractive to QFII in the new Millennium
Global central banks, economist, financial market
, industrial sectors analysts, CEO ignoring
,Dr. Huang photo
warning to ECB, JP Morgan in Rome, China
Peoples Bank governor Dai central bank governors conference in Macao, Taiwan
central bank governor Asian Pacific conference Taipei, APEC finance Thailand
prime minister, ASEAN central bank governors conferences in Bangkok, US Fed governors
, Washington Area, NASD finance conferences 1998-2000 on IT asset bubble
bursts
US macroeconomic, inflation control
tracking, forecasts:
Dr. Huang spoke to
Euro-events Singapore
, Shanghai, Beijin Nov.
2003 Asian/China
Finance, Capital Markets conferences lecture
to 2000 QFII, QDII mutual fund managers
and China Economist annual
meeting Dec. 20 and
San Francisco Silicon Valley finance radio and global
finance investment seminar May7, 8, 15,2004 and
www.osawh.com
website warning
global
central banks excessive rate, tax cuts, ignoring Dr. Huang's warning on this website and global
conferences, underestimated global economic recovery resulted inflation,
excessive demand for housing, manufacturing, auto pushed oil, metal
constructional materials prices to new high
and rising cost, prices to 5000 upstream /downstream raw materials, products
due to US excessive rate, tax cuts, Fed raising rate , too little,
too late , China delaying rate hike to effectively cut market demand
led to China Sept. CPI inflation up 5.2 % again and third quarter GDP
growth still at 9.1 % due to increasing business ( up 28 %)and
consumer demand up 14 % ,will facing soaring inflation from current
5.3 % to 6.6 %, US will facing inflation soared to 5 % in winter peaking
holiday demand season .
US, global economists,
market analysts over optimistic over the business and
consumer spending twin growth engine will drive second half 2004 economic recovery,
profit growth, bull market rally, Oct job
creation of 337000, will repeating March , peaking out as entering peak holiday
season, underestimated on the impact of US dollar depreciation, excessive rate, tax cuts
, 46 trillion dollar housing, equities wealth effect resulted excessive
consumer, business demand, NAPM peaking out in the second quarter at 66 ( already plunged to 56 as
predicted ) driving soaring oil, commodities, metals asset prices bubble
reaching 23 year high in March, May and extending into the rest of 2004. US trade deficit
soared to 51- 55 billion and inflation, facing credit tightening, rate hikes
after May, Aug. Sept , Nov 2004, profit , productivity growth , consumer
confidence , business spending,
peaking out, economic leading indicators declined for 6 months
,business facing profit squeeze in second half 2004, Job creation peaking out at March 370,000,
May 230,000, June 80,000, July only 32,000 , despite Aug 112,000, Oct 337,000 stock prices peaking out in the
Dec. 2003 and second quarter 2004
China and US, Global stocks bull markets are over, entering bear market
consolidation. US High tech, finance,
housing, retails, auto share will give up all its 2004 gain plunge 30-50
% and trillion dollar loss in bond and stock markets repeating 1995
and 2000 and trillion dollar
profits in oil, commodity futures investments
US inflation rate at 3.2 % in Aug., with business spending up 10 %, consumer
confidence above 100 ISM at 66 are inflationary, facing excessive inventory built up, oil,
soared to 56 currently consolidate in 47-50 will
cold winter will drive heating oil, and oil price rebound to 55 gas to 9.0 and metals to new high
in December will
drive up 20 sectors 5000 products costs and prices, inflation will be back to
3.5
% in winter, more rate
hikes are on its way to cool
off the economy, bond yield will return to 4.0- 4.8 %
Wall Street Market Research OSA Market Tracking,
Forecasts: Global Capital Markets Asset
prices tracking, forecasts:
Dr. Huang lectured to 50 European, Asian, Malaysian central banks, banking,
finance executives Kuala Lumpur, Sept. 30, 2002 predicted that oil prices soared
to 43, Dow Jones retest 7500 Nasdaq 1250, March 2003 on Asian Business Forum. He lectured Nov.
2003 lectured to Euro-events
Singapore
http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/
photos 1,
2,
3
lecture ppt
,
Shanghai, Beijin Nov.
Asian/China finance, capital Markets conferences,
www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm2003
picture
2
and to
China economists meeting Fudan University, Shanghai , Dec.
over 2000 QFII/QDII executives,
identify housing, equities wealth effect bubbles month
ahead, investment opportunities in China
petrochemical
upstream/downstream, steel, aluminum, telecommunications ADR , Shanghai A and
Hong Kong H shares, mutual fund up 80 % IPO shares up 150 %
and early warning for asset bubbles
in oil, commodities prices reaching 23 year peak( recommended
invested in future, derivatives gained 5000 %)
in March 2004, will drive China CPI to 5 %, with steel, cement
over-invested 170 % and energy shortage will lead to further credit tightening,
accurately predicted China Peoples bank raise bank reserve ratio 0.5 % to 7.5 %
open market inter-bank rate (Chibor)must stay above 3.% to remove 110 billion
from the capital markets, US CPI to 5.1 %, core inflation to 2.7 % in the
summer , overoptimistic over US economic recovery and job creation,( despite
March strong 300,000 new jobs can not sustainable after June quarter tax rebate
is over ( June job creation already down to 32,000) and inflation outlook may lead to rate hike after May and
summer lead to serious
bond market plunge (US lose 380 billion dollar, China lose 270 billion) housing
bubble repeat 1995 bond market crash and 2000 election bubble and global IT and
blue chips banking shares will peaking out in July facing and correction 2004,
Market speculators using Dell 29 % profit gain to push Dell and High tech, and
blue chips is premature, Dell will facing pricing cutting from HP holiday sales and general economic slowdown, Dell stock will plunge below 30, IBM
test 80.
Global IPO will facing 30-50 % correction as Google
will
plunge from 199 to 80-100, any attempt using IPO to speculate market rebound will be
followed by sell off bear trap
in post election bubble burst , repeating 2000. Dow will be traded 9550- 10700, Nasdaq 1750- 2100 ,
S&P 1000-1190, Taiwan index post election
bubble burst from 7200 to 5000- 5500, Henseng 11500- 13900, Nikkei 10000-
11900, China credit tightening continue. Shanghai A 1250- 1450, Shenzhen 3000-
3450, Euro : 1.26- 1.30 , Yen 105- 110, US, Asian and European stocks follow US
stocks rebound currently will gave up all this year gain
China and US economic slowdown will drag global economic growth, stocks
( including IPO )facing
30-50 % bear market correction consolidation
1.Global Finance Economics , Capital Markets Asset Prices Modeling (CAPM)
Simulation/Forecasts months ahead of emerging market trend
A. Pricing forecasts for securities, futures, derivatives
OSA Simulation Charts tracking forecasts 1-3 month
ahead monetary policy on last 20 years daily
Consumer spending, Fed Fund rate, Dollar exchange rate impact on Dow Jones Index
Japan money supply growth, Yen exchange rate, Dow Jones impact on Tokyo Nikkei index
EU money supply growth, EURO exchange rate, Dow Jones impact on German DAX index
Hong Kong money supply growth, interbank rate, Dow Jones impact on Henseng index have been developed, implemented supporting the following goal,
mission, performance oriented outsourcing strategic centers corporate/
memberships/
workshops
tailored to global government, enterprises, banking, finances enterprises board members, think tank
and executives in integrating into the global markets decision needs:
by Dr. Warren Huang ,
has been invited to
speak to 30 EURO ECB, US,
China Peoples Banks governors and APEC central banks governors policy and
capital market conferences, Government, business
strategy and financial risk management conferences since 1998
and speak on Global Capital Markets Asset Prices Simulation, Risk
Management for Beijin University business and finance center organized Global
Finance, Corporate Governance conference May 27-29, 2002 and offer two
lectures on Asian capital markets asset prices ,
B. Cost, financial accounting simulation, tracking, bubble forecasts, scandals
early warning
supporting securities,
banking, insurance commission, regulation, supervision, Sarbane-Oxley act
corporate governance scandal early warning maximize management team profit,
board members, investors performance, transparency) and securitization risks
simulation and control for Asian Business Forum's Asset Securitization
in Kula Lumpur, Sept 30-Oct 1
C. Strategic investment decisions analysis, risk management early warning
tracking, simulate, early warning for the causes, onset, spread, recovery, early
warning for global financial, currency, energy, asset bubble burst crisis.
2. Corporate Finance
A. Corporate debt structural reform, reengineering, strategic change management
B. Corporate governance , scandals tracking, early warning
C. Maximize IPO ( initial stock portfolio offering ), stock prices and
performance simulation, forecasts.
D. Maximize Pre merger targeting and post merger integration performance,
value creation .
Global Economy and Financial
Markets, Asset Prices Models (CAPM) Simulation for Global Investment Banking and banking
Finance and capital markets credit performance, defaults risks OSA ( Operations
Simulation Analysis) Control, for government, regulation, supervision and accounting
malpractices pre-warning:
3. Strategic Banking Operation Simulation Analysis
Real Time Dynamic simulation of Global central banks Monetary, economic, fiscal
Policy Impact on daily capital markets and commercial, investment
banking interest rates, currency, industrial supply,
demand, prices, corporate earning, stocks, bond, commodity, financial futures and
derivatives , properties markets , mortgage, credit demand, corporate credit defaults,
credit derivatives prices , defaults risk control, and
the causes, onset, spread, recovery of Asian, Russia, South America Financial,
Banking
Crisis and LTCM hedging fund failure and current US High tech bubble bursts, ENRON,
TYCO, Global Crossing, IBM, NVDA , WCOM accounting malpractice, recession, recovery
impact on the new economy boom and bust and financial and capital markets stability
with financial engineering applications to structured finance in global banking and finance
, corporate IPO, ADR, pre/post merger, integration performance
improvement and daily accounting malpractices, credit default risk management for stocks
markets, banking and insurance companies regulation, supervision.
A. Global Commercial banking, personal finance, strategic wealth management
B. Global Strategic Investment Banking Expert System
C. Maximize Banking, finance reform, integration Profit Operations Optimization
D. Strategic Corporate Governance Financial Accounting Scandal early warning
E. Basel II Operational, Credit, Interest Rate, Market Risks Operations
Monitoring, Simulation, Early Warning
Maximize Risks Adjusted Return, While supporting Basel II 3
pillars capital requirement, regulation, supervision< transparency
requirement.
OSA pioneer Dr. Warren
Huang has offered thousands seminars, workshops, daily commentary to TV, radio lectures
for 30 million China, Taiwan, ASEAN, Asian, US government, central banks,
banking, finance, corporate CEO, CFO, senior executive, fund managers, analysts, investors
on GNP growth, price stability risks control policy, government, financial industry,
Corporate reform, reengineering, default risks supervision, regulation, prevention,
daily global financial market portfolio risks management, supply chain cost
reduction on the job training , decision support for internet e-commerce,
e-business, e-finance, e-investment applications
Simulation of monetary policy impact Analysis
Monetary Policy, Oil Prices Impact on Global Capital Markets Financial, Energy Crisis,
Recovery, Risk Control
The author has spend half of his time in Taiwan, ASEAN, Asia( 1980- 1996) and China, Hong
Kong(1994-1998 with Ji in China), and US(1998-current), in developing, implementing
dynamics Structural based global capital markets Operations Simulation Analysis(OSA)
, providing global central banks monetary, economic policy, oil prices impact on daily
EURO, Asian, US, global macro economy, daily financial, capital markets normal,
crisis dynamics during 1980 and 2001.
The Root causes, pre-warning, onset,
recovery of Economic boom, bust, currency, financial crisis OSA
Global Capital Markets Strategic Asset Management OSA(
Operations Simulation Analysis)
Strategic Global Investment Banking OSA
OSA pioneer Dr. Warren Huang's Proprietary Strategic OSA simulators maximize global
investment banking profits at minimum risks through tracking accurately last 20 years
monetary, economic , fiscal policy impact on global capital markets investment banking
decsions during crisis :
He has offered hundreds investment workshops for China's nationawide and
Taiwan, San Franccisco banking, finance CEO, money, fund, underwriting managers on
underwriting, IPO, ADR prices, investment strategy and and risk management, warned
on this website and www.sina.com USA in Dec
1999 and 20 global central banks governors conference that US new economy IPO, ADR
bubble burst, will plunge 90 %
Global Investment Banking Expert Systems, e-Investing, e-Risk Management
COrporate Governance, Profit Margin Simulation/ Accounting
Malpractice Prevention(workshops,
memberships
Venture Capital Risks simulation, control (
workshops,
memberships)
Financial markets Crisis Simulation risks Control (workshops,
memberships)
IPO underwriting pricing /
pre and Post Merger
integerations Performance
workshops,
memberships
Market and credit risks simulation and control
Global Banking, Financial Crisis Simulation, Control: US and Global Debt Market
Storm Simulation Forecasts. workshops
, memberships
Global Investing Strategy and Investors Psychology: Two Master hands controlling
global financial market prices: Misguided by institution investors analysts
overoptimistics in the second half 2000,? and 2001 earning, use 3 months old earning data
, ignoring rate hike and soaring oil prices? impact on? demand and prices, earning and
stock prices, chasing the high flyer networks, chips stocks or low P/E old economy
finance, consumer stocks, and dump the stocks after earning warning? resulted billion
dollar loses Intel, Apple ,Yahoo,?SDL, QCOM, JNPR,? Kodak, NOK,? TSM,? all can be avoided
by using two master hands controlling?? stock prices?? click for bull, bear markets
buy/sell/hold decision/
EURO, US interest rate impact on global industrial sectors
earning , EU, UK? finance, IT stocks, ADR investing strategy
Global Oil Prices Energy Crisis Simulation Forecast: ?? economic slowdown, soaring
import,? lead to excess? inventory , took oil price plunge to 23, OPEC cut production by
1.5 million, support oil prices around 24-28, heating oil: 70-83 Gasoline ?65-91
Fight Oil Crisis and Economic Recession :Global Energy Crisis Impact Simulation and cost
reduction: On Old economy corporate earning decline Macro economic Inflation,Trade
balance/currency, Oil future, option hedging? Investment,
Procurement prices and cost reduction, ,? Refining and process energy conservation? cost
reduction Strategy
=======================================================================
Global Stocks and Bond underwriting, IPO and
ADR prices OSA and investment strategy
Banking and FInance reform, restructuring, reengineering, risks
simulation / change management
Pre and Post merger/acquisition performances and stocks prices OSA
Real Estate, Asset Prices OSA and investment Strategy, Boom
and Bust pre-warning
Global Asset Allocation
Management Strategy
OSA Today
Journal for Global Capital Markets daily trading prices, and Risks control
simulation
OSA pioneer Dr. Warren
Huang's Proprietary Strategic Global Capital Markets Asset Prices OSA
simulators maximize global capital markets profits at minimum risks in
daily asset allocation management strategy through tracking accurately last 25 years
monetary, economic , fiscal policy impact on global capital markets asset prices decisions
during crisis :
He has offered thousand daily investment commentary and workshops for
China's nationwide and Taiwan 15 cities (Beijing, Shanghai, SHenzhen, Gunazhou,
Taipei San Franccisco) TV, radio and investment newspaper, journals 30 million
banking, finance executives, investors, traders , and central banks governors conferences
on daily Taiwan, China, Hongkong, US and global interest rates, spreads, loan
performancxec, banking profit margin, credit risks, oils, commodities futures,
currency futures, stocks, bond , derivatives prices, investment strategy, risks management
warned before and during, after the Asian Financial Crisis and on this
website and www.sina.com in Dec 1999 and 20 global
central banks governors conference that US new economy IPO bubble burst, will plunge 90 % and again warned July 2001 in Beijin
on US recession will drag China Shanghai A from 2100 to 1500 and Dow, Nikkei,
Henseng plunge belwo 9,000
and Taiwan Index below 3500
Global interest rates, Bonds Yields, spread OSA, risk
management
Global oils, commodities, derivatives , raw material, products
demand, prices OSA
Global currency futures, derivatives prices OSA
Global Stock indices
futures
Hot
stocks and Bond, derivatives prices OSA
Global Capital Investment fund credit perofrmance and defaults
risks management
Global Proprietary portfolio arbitrage prices OSA
Monetary Policy Impact on
Global Macro economic cycle and Financial Markets Dynamics OSA
Development and implementation OSA/Global and OSA/US simulation systems
Global Central Banks Monetary Policy, Oil prices shocks Impact on Macro economics Risks
Simulations
Monetary Policy for Sustainable Growth: OSA—Global Asset Price Bubble Burst Simulation
Dynamic tracking simulation of last 1980, 1990, 2001 US, Japan, China, Taiwan, Hong Kong,
Korea, ASEAN, Russia, South America, European stocks, properties prices impact on consumer
and business spending, macro economics GDP performances , to predict, forecast overpriced
asset prices resulted consumers spending imbalance and business profit slump, leading to
bubble burst and abrupt change in consumer and business confidence caused stock prices
plunges with average error below 1.5 %, correlation constant above 0.95. These
deterministic, dynamic simulation of last 20 years global asset prices, and economy boom
and bust of the asset bubble vicious cycle of excessive monetary policy, low interest rate
induced sustained long term bull markets stocks prices gain caused consumer and business
spending in real estate properties pushed soaring housing prices and rent. And deficit
spending (negative saving) in stock markets, pushed the stock s even higher, until abrupt
reverse of consumer and investor confidence --the bubble burst- plunge of stocks (recent
internet and biotech) and properties prices as it happened in US, Japan, Taiwan in 1980,
1987, 1990, energy crisis, EURO 1992 currency crisis, 1994 China runaway inflation, 1995
Mexico crisis, 1997-98 ASEAN, Japan, Korea, Russia, Brazil currency crisis, all caused by
overpriced stock prices due to excess monetary policy and high GDP growth
1. Monetary Policy, oil prices impact on inflation, old and new economy corporate earning
and global stock prices,:
2. Global stock prices and monetary policy impact on consumer and business spending.
3. Global stock prices, wealth effect , monetary policy impact on housing properties
prices and rent
4. Global stock prices, wealth effect ,monetary policy impact on GDP macro-economics
performance.
5. Global stock prices, monetary policy impact on procurement manager index
6. Global stock prices, wealth effect , monetary policy impact on consumer and business
spending
William FRB/US and FRB/Global model provide on Monetary policy impact on US and global
macro economy and financial markets However, the following OSA approach rigorous equations
have been tracking successfully 100 IMF members countries central banker monetary policy
impact on the macro-economy :
Inflation rate = F (Money supply growth rate %, Commodity index, Dollar exchange rate)
GNP = F (Money supply growth rate %, Interest Rate, Export Growth Rate)
Property prices = F (Money supply growth rate %, Interest Rate, stock index)
NAPM = F(Money supply growth rate %, Interest Rate, stock index)
Business, consumer spending = F(Fed fund rate, Nasdaq annual change, Yen exchange rate)
OSA/EURO for Economy and Financial Markets Simulation:: These formulas tracking the EURO
11 member countries monetary policy inter-bank interest rate converged to 3 % and with 4.5
% money supply growth to meet 2 % inflation and 2.5 % GNP in 1999 and Asian recovery, US
soaring stocks, housing market wealth effect pushed consumer, business demand for EURO
export, weak EURO ,pushed oil price to 37, 6 rate hike resulted slowdown in business,
consumer spending , plunging prices, corporate profits, stocks prices to cool off US
economy, drag NAPM from 58 to 41.2. GNP from 7.3 % to 0.5 %, EURO money supply growth
exceeds 4.5 % to 6 %, inflation 2.8 % and GDP of 3.5 % lead to EURO 7 interest rate hike
in 2000 to tightening the money supply growth to 4.5 % and inflation to 2 %, GDP to 2.8 %
, falling oil price pushed EURO from 0.83 to 0.95 cut Into EURO export and corporate
earning and stock prices retreat 15 %
OSA/US for Economy and Financial Markets Simulation
These equations predicted 1998 winter US three interest rate cuts to 4.5 %, provide m2
money supply growth rate expanded to 10.5 %, and dollar plunge 20 % to boost export Dow
stock index soared form 7200 to 9600 and provide 4 th quarter 1998 GNP 6 %. to prevent US
from danger of deflation caused by Global Financial Crisis related credit crunch, it also
predicted 1993 deflation: money supply dropped to ? % even the fund rate cut to 3 %, led
to US GNP contracted to 3 %... US, inflation up to 3.5 %, GDP of 7.3 % in winter 1999 due
to Y2K excessive money supply lead to Dow soaring to 11400, Nasdaq doubled to 5100, these
wealth effect further pushed consumer spending to 8 % and tripled oil prices 2000 ,
soaring property prices 4 th quarter 2000 GDP slowdown to 1.1 % inflation still at 3.6 %
despite Fed 6 interest rate hikes , However, it finally cooled off in 2001 first quarter
facing recession threat, forced Fed cut rate by 1.5 %, US consumer, business spending,
GNP, Dow Jones simulation chart can be found on chart 1-4, more results can be found on my
full workshop tommorow.
US housing prices bubble Simulation /Forecasts:
This equation predicted US 6 year economic expansion since 1995, Dow Jones tripled from
3600 to 11400 , Nasdaq soared 5 times lead to wealth effect pushed nationwide housing
price index up 50 % with some major high tech cities like San Francisco, Silicon Valley,
Boston, NY, prices even tripled. These bubble burst in 1990 Fed interest rate hike
resulted price plunge 50 %
OSA/Japan: Macro economics and financial markets applications:
These equation indicated Japan enjoyed 9.6 % GDP growth at 13.5 % money supply growth and
double digit export growth are excessive, inflationary in 1990 lead to Nikkei to 38000.
And benefited by soaring export and BOJ stimulus package to boost the domestic demand
boost the money supply from 4 % to 10 % and at zero interest rate Nikkei rebound from
15000 to 22500 lead Japan getting out of deflation in 2000. However US, EURO slowdown and
rising oil prices lead to Japan trade deficit, export decline, US high tech stock plunge
drag Japan money supply growth rate to 2 % ,Nikkei to 11500 , despite Bank of Japan inject
money into the financial systems, buy back 368 billion stocks to remove banks
nonperformance and boost money supply led to strong Nikkei rebound from 11600 to
13500,will facing resistance around 13000-14000. It can do little to stop global slowdown,
Japan declining consumer spending and GDP contraction and 4.9 % high unemployment
Japan Housing prices bubble Simulation /Forecasts:
This equation predicted Japan housing prices soared 10 times during the late 1980’s as money supply growth soared form
5 % to 13 %, Tokyo house prices soared 10 times, ranking top in global prices, as Nikkei
soared from 15000 to 38000 . Tokyo house prices plunge 70 % as money supply growth plunge
from 13 to 3 %, during 1990- 1998, It rebound 30 % as money supply growth from 2 % to 5 %
in Asian crisis recovery in 1999 and government economic stimulus package, Nikkei rebound
from 13000 to 18000 in 1999,. However it down 10 % since Nikkei plunge from 22000 to 11500
in 2001, simulation results will be demonstrated in the conference.
OSA/China Financial Markets and Economy Application:
How China avoided 1994 Financial Crisis and made soft-landing and 1998 Asian Financial
Crisis Simulation:
This author with Ji and Dai spending half time in China during 1988 - 1998 implementing
these relationships tracking Taiwan, Hong Kong and China peoples banks monetary policy
impact on inflation and GNP and interest rate, Taiwan and RMB currency and stock markets
prices. It accurately tracking and predicted daily China economy and financial markets
activities, how the current Prime minister Zhu Rongji successfully managed China's
monetary policy led China avoided possible financial crisis by successfully controlled the
inflation, to bring it down from 35 % and 100 % currency depreciation to deflation of ?.5
%in 1999 and current 2.5 % by cutting the money supply growth from peak of 35 % in 1994 to
1996 15 % to achieve soft-landing and boost domestic demand to maintaining 15 % money
supply growth 7.8 % GNP growth which lead to Shanghai stock index plunge from 1994’s peak of 1550 to 333 and stabilized
traded between 600 and 800 during 1994 and 1996 through three stages credit tightening to
cut the domestic demand and reduced the import duty by 30 % to reduce the importing
inflation and implemented stock markets and financial institution regulation and full
transparency, ban short term foreign capital speculation in the housing and stock markets
achieved perfect soft-landing in 1996. And also predicted 1996 interest rate cuts leading
to bull markets, with Shanghai A index tripled from 520 to 1650 . ( all predicted by the
author on lectures to 20 million 15 cities TV, radio programs and national newspapers
during 1994- 98 .The state enterprise reform and Asian crisis resulted high unemployment
and export slowdown, pulling the money supply down from 1996?s 28 % to 14 % in 1999, drag
the GNP form 9.5 % to 7.8 % . But recovered strongly by domestic stimulus package and
strong export growth (40 %) this year in soaring global demand, . with GDP 8.3 % and
Shanghai index soared to 2100 new high while global stocks under correction due to US
interest rate hike
The declining export, 50 billion domestic public construction deficit budget and 150
billion short term debt and falling corporate profit and falling prices as entering WTO
this year. China will feel the global slowdown early 2001 , as stock prices just completed
under 10 % correction predicted by the author tracking of China macro, financial trade
economic impact on 700 listed corporate industries trends, profit margins and stock prices
China Housing prices bubble Simulation /Forecasts:
This equation predicted China housing prices soared 10 times during 1986- 1994 as money
supply growth soared form -5 % to 35 %, Beijin, Shanghai house prices soared 10 times,
ranking top 5 in global prices, as Shanghai stock index soared from 150 to 1500 . Housing
prices plunge 70 % as money supply growth plunge from 35 to 12 %, during 1994- 1998, It
rebound 30 % as money supply growth from 12 % to 15 % in Asian crisis recovery in 1999 and
government economic stimulus package, Shanghai index rebound from 520 to 2100 since 1999,.
OSA/ASEAN and OSA/Asian, OSA/Russia, OSA/South America Financial Crisis Root Causes
Simulation:
These formulas indicated the rest of Asian emerging countries, Russia, Mexico, Brazil
failed to do so, maintaining excessive money supply and growth, by encourage short term
hot money speculating in housing and stock markets resulted soaring stocks and properties
prices and labor costs caused export decline and huge trade and current account deficit,
led to runaway currency depreciation and inflation, followed by rising interest rate and
tight money supply resulted economic contraction between 5 % and 10 % started July of 1997
, the burst of the asset bubble and widening of bond yield spread
These formula provide global central bankers and IMF combined feedforward and feedback
control of inflation GNP through micro-tuning policy, meeting growth and stability control
without causing damage due to deflation and inflation
Monetary Policy Impact on daily Global Financial Markets Dynamics Simulations:
Monetary Policy and shocks, speculative attack impact on global Financial Markets dynamics
under stress:
Global Interest Rates , Bond prices and spread, Debt Markets Dynamics , Credit, Market
Risk Simulations
The global central bankers use the commodity prices and inflation rate as the leading
indicators for setting the monetary policy and short term interest rates (inter-bank rate
or Fed fund rate), while the long term interest rate bond yield are related to the dollar
exchange rate which influence the capital flow
.Short term Interbank or Fed fund rate =F (Money supply growth rate %, commodity index,
oil price, inflation )
long term bond yield = F( money supply growth rate %, dollar exchange rate, inflation
rate)
These formulas tracking, simulate global interest rate, bond prices dynamics accurately.
It indicate that reduced demand due to Asian turmoil have drag down the global oils and ,
commodities prices and inflation,
US treasury and junk bond prices spread LTCM failure simulation :
The plunging oil prices during Asian Crisis allow US, China , Japan and EURO central banks
applying expansionary monetary policy, which lead to falling interest rates and all time
high in bond prices, US 30 yr ?T-Bond yield dropped below 4.5 % due to low inflation and
strong dollar, while the junk Russia bond and US corporate bond was hurt by global
financial crisis, especially Russia high inflation, plunge oil income lead to trade
deficit and falling rubble , pushed yield to all time high led to widening spread summer
1998 as predicted by this formula, while LTCM speculate on Russia junk bond believe bond
spread will converge below 2 %( it widening to 4 % instead) LTCM lead to US Fed three
interest rate cut to 4.5 % to cut dollar strength, therefore the bond spread due to due to
strong dollar and low inflation, oil prices
However, excessive money supply in 1998 lead to soaring US and global stocks, strong Asian
recovery , with excessive money supply in winter 1999 for Y2K pushed global stocks even
higher lead oil price doubled from 10 to 37, US inflation up from 1.1 to 3.5 % forced US 6
interest rate hike to 6.5 and EURO 7 interest rate hike to 4.75 % to cool off the soaring
US stock market fueling consumer, business demand, pushing housing prices and labor prices
bond yield soared from 4.5 % to 6.5%(with junk corporate bond yield soared to 13.5 %), due
to falling dollar, rising inflation, plunging stock prices and concerned about asset
bubble burst.
These deterministic models minimize risks , saving trillion dollar loses due to central
bankers monetary policy risks, credit risks in developing countries, and betting on the
wrong side of interest rates by LTCM and other banking and financial industry executives`
OSA/ASEAN, ASIAN and Russia, Brazil crisis applications While the troubled ASEAN and Asian
countries and Russia, Brazil, Mexico central bankers have to tight the money supply,
raising interest rates to fight inflation and stabilize the currency which caused by
excessive money supply and currency depreciation, led to capital outflow, bond , stocks,
plunge, bond yield spread soared to new high, instead of converge.
Monetary Policy, Trade Impact on Global Currency Exchange Rates Dynamics, Risks
Simulation?
The Onset of global currency crisis:.
US dollar exchange rates are related to US and other countries trade deficit (or surplus)
and the two countries interest rates spread
Dollar exchange rate = F (US trade deficit, the other country's trade surplus (deficit),
interest rate spread)
Over 100 IMF countries dollar currency exchange rates simulations have been used for 1000
chemical engineering and economics seniors course assignment by the author. Tracking
results have been published in the weekly trade journal for 100,000 Taiwan's Taipei
importer/exporters members daily trading decisions for 100 countries export/import
strategy
This formula accurately predicted 1998 summer US dollar overpriced at 147 Yen, due to
soaring Japan trade surplus against widening US trade deficit, US 3 interest rate cuts led
dollar plunge 20 % to 110. And continue its down trend to 103. Yen pluinged to 125 again
this year as Japan suffer trade deficit due to soaring oil, prices, import, and export
decline and stock prices plunged from 20000 to 11500 due to US, EURO slowdown, Japan high
unemployment, decline consumer spending, falling interest rate,
And EURO plunge from 1.17 to current 0.83, as the union trade surplus plunged from 8
billion to widening trade deficit of 800 million due to soaring oil prices and import,
despite ECB 7 interest rate hikes and intervention, recent oil price plunge below 25 and
US economic slowdown pushed EURO to 0.95.
EURO and global major currency OSA forecasts as follows:
Asian, Russia, South American Currency Crisis, Risks Dynamics Simulation
The above formula tracking, simulating ASEAN, Asian troubled countries, Russian, Brazil
daily currency dynamics before, at the onset of , during and after the crisis with average
error below 1.5 %. It accurately predicted these central bankers must tighten money
supply, raised interest rate to stabilize the exchange rate (increase the interest rate
spread) due to rising trade and current account deficit.
Pre- currency crisis root causes Dynamic simulation :The excessive money supply and
pouring foreign capital inflow led to ASEAN, Asian , Russia, Brazil economic boom and
skyrocketing labor and properties, stock prices and wages, have cut into the export market
competitiveness (against China's low labor costs), lead to soaring trade and current
account deficit in Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Korean, Hong
Kong, Brazil, Russia. This formula indicated fixed currency were overpriced(as shown)
Dynamics Simulation of onset and during global currency crisis
The widening of trade deficit to one billion US dollars lead to overprices currency : as
the announcement of floating the currency lead to instantaneous currency deprecation
according to this formula: Thailand, had to raise to interest rate from 15 % to 30 %, to
stabilize the Baht exchange rate around 50(depreciated form 25), Hong Kong raised the
interbank rate from 5 % to 25 % to allow the Hong Kong dollar stick to the 7.7), S. Korea
has to raised the interest from 20 % to 40 % to prevent it drop to 2000 (depreciated from
750) , Indonesia had to raise interest rate from 20 % to 57 % to stabilize the Rupiah at
17000., Malaysia, Taiwan and Singapore, Australia all had to raise interest rates to
stabilize their currency due to widening trade deficit, . The central bankers must raise
the interest rate to stabilize their currency and fight inflation. Thailand, Korea, Hong
Kong, Brazil, doubled interest rate Russia tripled the interest rate to fight inflation
and stabilize currency , cut domestic consumption, thus improve trade and current account
surplus.
OSA/Brazil central bank decision to float the Real currency, cut the interest rate to save
the stock market, took the Real dropped from 1.1 to 2.4, help to boost the export, the
stock responded to the interest rate cut, rebounded from 5000 to 9700, the global players
are supporting the stock markets make it stick to Dow index (following Hong Kong style),
despite Brazil economy under 4 % contraction and further tightening to cut expenses,
Brazil interest rate, Real currency and impact on stock market have been simulated
accurately
Dynamics simulation of Monetary Policy on UK, 11 EURO member countries currency, stocks
Prices :
EURO currency :, it will have resistance around 1.30 due to strong EURO will
hurt
EMU export, soaring oil prices resulted union shrinking trade
surplus vs US 51.5 billion deficit, EURO stable interest rate also
help stabilize EURO currency to 1.30
currency simulation and currency crisis simulation will be demonstrated in my workshops
Monetary policy impact on global stock market indices cash and futures trading loses risks
simulation:
Stock Index/Bond cash and future price = F (M2 money supply growth, interest rate, dollar
exchange rate)
This relationship simulated last 20 years 40 daily international stock market stock
indices, including normal and major crisis (under stress discontinuous data) with average
error below 1.5 %. It predicted 1987 crash as FED raise fund rate 0.75 %: recent Nasdaq
plunge form 5100 to 1800 as Fed 6 interest rate hike and 1995 Baring betting on the wrong
side of Nikkei Index. And 1990 Nikkei crash from 38000 as Bank of Japan tightening the
money supply growth from 13 % to 5 %
OSA/US Dow Jones Index risk dynamics simulation:,
1987 crash :The high US inflation rate (6.5% ) complicated by the Iranian war in early
Oct. 17, 1987, pushed the oil price to 25, lead US Fed credit tightening, reduce the money
supply growth from 9 % to 7 %,, raised the Fed fund rate from 9 % to 9.75%, the Dollar Yen
exchange rate drop from 150 to 136, took the Dow instantaneously crashed from 2250 to 1520
It also indicate the Dow responding to 1998 winter 3 Fed fund rate cut , each 25 base
point corresponding to raise the consumer spending and pushed Dow 800 points ( the first
rate cut pushed money supply from 6.9 % at the credit crunch, Dow rebounded from 7400
bottom to 8200, the second rate cut pushed money supply from 8.5 % to 9.5 %, pushed Dow
from 8200 to 9000, while the third rate cut led to overheated stock and properties prices
and speculation, the money supply growth pushed to 10.5 % in January, took the Dow
marching toward 10,000 and making new highs in mid March, due to high money supply growth
of 10 .5% and three Fed fund rate cuts to 4.5 %,dollar plunge 20 % to boost export (IC and
computer industry are benefited)
and US 6 rate hikes to cooloff consumer spending from 9 % to 5 % pulled Dow 20 % to 9100,
as shown Chart Nasdaq down 65 % to 1850, EURO 7 rate hikes drag EURO stocks 15 % as
indicated
OSA/Global Trade : Monetary Policy Impact on Global Trade simulation:
Global trade are closely related to global monetary policy which indicating importing
country cousumer demand, and exporting country currency (cost)
For country bilateral or multilateral trade:
Export Growth = (export market central bank monetary growth, interest rate, currency
exchange rate)
Import growth rate =( central bank money supply growth, interest rate, currency exchange)
OSA/Global: indicated Asian, Russia, Brazil crisis countries all depreciated currency ,
make export price very cheap to boost export, made import very expensive to cut domestic
demand, and import, therefore boost trade surplus to support the currency.
OSA/US: US interest rate cut led US dollar depreciate 10 % against EURO to boost US goods
export to EURO but US dollar up from 103 to 123 against Japan’s sluggish demand( money supply growth stay at 2%, cut into US
eport to Japan, lead to US export decline , while the soaring oil, raw material prices
pushed US and global import led to soaring US trade deficit to 35 billion
the author has conducted university teaching, research , trained 1000 chemical
engineering, economics, strategic management students tracking simulate 100 IMF countries
central bankers monetary, WTO trade policy impact on GNP, interest rates, exchange rates,
commodities, refinery, petrochemicals, fibers, plastics raw material and 500 consumers
products prices, He also provide decision support and on the job training to Taiwan's
government state and private enterprises restructuring, global strategic management and
consulting to 100,000 importer/exporter association members weekly global currency, global
import/export markets spot, contract pricing, commodities, raw material, products in
import and 100 international countries export /import market strategy
He also offered hundreds on the job training for 10,000 corporate finance, marketing,
sales, production, Quality management, production VP, senior managers. And has written
thousands articles on real time tracking, simulation, forecasts of global currency
exchange rates interest rates, impact on crude oil, petrochemical, fibers, plastics,
rubbers raw materials, IC, computers spot, contract prices, procurement, products
competitive pricing ,marketing shares improvement strategy.,
Monetary Policy Impact on Global Commodities, Industrial sectors supply, demand, prices ,
profit margin simulation
Global Commodities, Industrial raw materials, consumers products futures prices
simulations,
Feedgrain commodities cash, future prices = (current, future oil price, US inflation rate,
Yen exchange rate)
Metal cash, future prices = (US NAPM, US interest rate, Yen exchange rate)
Heating oil, gasoline prices = F (consumer demand, crude oil prices, inflation)
raw material, IC chips prices = F( demand, raw material costs, exchange rate )
Crude oil price = F ( gasoline price, heating oil prices, exchange rate)
refinery profit margin = F(crude oil demand and prices, gasoline, heating oil sales,
prices)
The risks in uncertainties in corporate profits due to global deflation, US manufacturing
recession (NAPM plunged to 41.6 )resulted product demand and prices slump in global
commodities, industrial raw material and consumers products contract and spot and futures
prices and credit crunch( except soaring oil prices due to strong US heating oil, gasoline
demand and OPEC 1.5 million production cut is shown on chart 5 , covering last summer peak
US gasoline prices of 107 pushed US Texas light crude oil to 37 and cold winter drive up
heating oil to 100 c/gal pushed oil prices to 35 again
This equation also relating products prices to current and future raw material cost,
downstream demand, and the dollar exchange rates in the trading countries or spot, futures
markets. Thousands of such proprietary prices simulation forecasts models have been
developed, implemented since 1980 energy crisis , presented to American Institute of
Chemical Engineers Golden Jubilee meeting in Washington DC, 1983, on OSA for global
petrochemical marketing and sales strategy in the 1980’s and Tokyo world congress in Chemical engineering to global
CEO and executives on Simulation of global petrochemicals demand, prices, and to 1989’s Petroleum Minnisters conference
conference and 1991 Beijin, INTERPEC China on integrated strategic management for global
refinery and petrochemicals in the 1990’s and 50 global chemicals engineering and computer control
conference (reference20-25) and lectured to 30 millions US, EUROS, Taiwan and China's
corporate procurement, marketing, sales managers and 100,000 importer/exporter members ,
TV, radio audiences, investors on daily , weekly global currency tracking and
import/export pricing strategy and gold and metals, feedgrains, oils, petrochemical,
fibers, plastics, paper and computers companies daily global corporate procurement,
marketing strategic decisions during the last 14 years and Asian crisis.
US dollar plunge from 147 to 105 and excessive consumer demand are responsible for
heating, oil, gasoline prices to 100 pushed crude oil prices to 37 Refinery margin up from
4 % to 8 % as shown in the simulation on Chart 6, is benefited by high gasoline demand and
prices support in US and EURO, but hurt by fuel oil and crude oil prices due
Simulation of monetary policy impact on global e-business strategic management
Investment and risk management strategy
Capital Investment and equities investing strategy
Global old and new economics capital investment ignoring demand side economics impact on
product sales demand, prices, and investment return, which resulted excess capacity in
olefin, petrochemical, fibers, polymers in Asia (Taiwan, China, Japan, Korea) in 1993-1997
oversupply , prices profit plunge during recent energy crisis, even oil prices soared to
37, the downstream ethylene, styrene still stayed below 600 USA/MT vs 1900 in 1990.
While the new economic IT products chips, PC, internet, network, fiber optics, wireless
telecommunication equipment made the same mistakes by heavy investment and expansion in
US, Korea, Taiwan during 1999-2000., ignoring US Fed 6 rate hikes to cool off the consumer
and business spending as warned by this author in 18 global central banks conference.
These heavy investments created sharp prices cutting and huge operating loss, stock prices
plunged 95 %
Pre-and post merger acquisition performance simulation
The industry failed in pre-and post merger acquisition performance simulation in billion
dollar mega merger created even huge loss and debt
Global Oils, Petrochemicals Industry Corporate Pre and Post Mergers/ Acquisitions OSA(Jan
20, 2000
Exxon-Mobil merger:
Based on the author's associated with both Mobil and AMOCO headquarters, both company
although enjoyed over 135 % gain in profits downstream refining, petrochemical operations
are hurt by soaring crude oil prices, cut into profit margin to only 6.5 % , 15,000 staff
cut to save 3.5 billion payroll cost may not improve it's post merger integration
performance as oil prices peaking out and the strict environment standard on restriction
MTBE additive in gasoline as it happen in Compaq, Boeing and others.) stock prices will be
below 100. It need to do more in the post merger acquisition integration and improve on
the procurement, refining operation strategic improvement, which can cut billion dollars
and expand margin to above 10 %
However BPAMOCO merger is more goal oriented in global diversification, It invested 20 %
in China's national co PetroChina, and strengthen it's global market¡@shares, stock price at
50 is attractive will be traded in 50-72
The author have development Over ten thousands of artificial intelligence, neural net,
fuzzy logic, chaos algorithms based daily global interest rates, currency rates,
commodity, oils, petrochemicals feedstock, products , financial futures, options prices,
corporate profitability and stock prices Operations Simulations Analysis expert systems,
and implemented for US, Asian Pacific, European multinational oil, petrochemicals,
information, biotech industry corporate investment banking, government, state enterprises
reform, privatization, restructuring, reengineering, pre and post merger/acquisitions
applications during the last 30 years with Mobil, AMOCO, Phillips Petroleum, Stauffer
Chemicals US headquarters (subsidiary of Rhone Poulenc) (These systems have been recommend
by US Hydrocarbon Processing Advanced Control and Information Management, Productivity and
Quality, Process Design & Optimization Handbook during 1991- 1997, Over 1000 major cos
from 65 US, European, Asian Pacific, South American countries including EXXON, Dupont, BP,
Shell, BASF, Aramco, Sinopec, IBM, Merck . In addition to thousands corporate managers
contacted 32 OSA based corporate pre and post merger/acquisitions restructuring,
reengineering performances analysis )and strategy, tracking, simulate daily US Fed and
global central bankers monetary policy, interest rates, currency, Asian financial crisis
and it's impact on global global commodity, industrial raw materials, financial futures,
options prices, corporate profitability, stock prices. He has directed over 1000 senior
graduate chemical engineering . students to develop OSA approach to 60 refinery,
petrochemicals, fibers, plastics process simulations and corporate global strategic
management applications for oil, petrochemicals industry pre and post merger/acquisition
restructuring, reengineering and performances improvements simulation, investment, risk
management for helping 20 millions global corporate CEO, finance, import/ export,
currency, equities trading, procurement, marketing managers, investors to take advantage
of investment opportunities in last 20 years financial crisis through the joint
academic-industry training centers setup, in OSA goal mission, performance oriented OSA
teams directed by Dr. Warren Huang to provide on the job training for oil, petrochemicals
industry corporate managers in pre and post merger/acquisition daily decision analysis
US weekly Fed and European, Asian central bankers money supply, fund rate, Asian Financial
Crisis, Yen exchange rate and new product development impact on daily BP AND AMOCO pre and
post mergers performance OSA
Pre mergers OSA: Oils and Petrochemical industries are badly hurt by the Asian turmoil and
strong dollar .The global oils and petrochemcials, plastics, fibers feedstock's and
products have been dropped to ten years low due to Asian demand slow down and currency
depreciation. It continued to suffered by soaring oil prices to 37 resulted heavy loss. in
the post crisis recovery
Post mergers OSA: The Cross continent mergers involved different cultural background and
management concept may reduce some manpower costs in the immediate future, However, It
still requires this authors over 30 years experiences in implementing quality, cost,
market shares goal, mission, performance oriented cross functional pizza chart OSA
strategic and execu tion OSA teams for US, European, Asian Pacific multinationals provide
unified manage ment concept, procedures and decision methods supporting new corporate
restructuring, reengineer ring efforts to reduce feedstock, inventory costs and process
efficiency improvement with expanded market shares.
Stock investment strategy: but both have to face the increasing competition in the oils
petroch micals industry. BPAMOCO will be traded between 47and 55,
Finance group mega merger Citigroup of Traveler caought in Russia crisis, stock plunged
from 75 to 29 presented by this author on JP Morgan sponsored post EURO banking and
finance integration and risk management strategy Nov. 26, 1998, Rome Italy
He warned banking finance industry mega merger emphasized on staff reduction benefit and
diversification , ignored post merger integration improvement on risk management decision
making resulted Citigroup, UBS billion dollar loss in Russian, and LTCM crisis.
He accurately predicted Chase 36 billion dollar merge. JP Morgan will give up all it's gain to 110,
Chase plunge to 35
and JDSU 100 billion inflated high cost merger SDL will cause operating hardship , stocks
will subject to 50-70 % plunged, JDSU plunged from 160 to 10, SDL from 400 to 90
Monetary Policy Impact on Global Capital Markets Prices, Investment Strategy
Monetary policy impact on global stock market indices cash and futures trading loses risks
simulation:
Stock Index/Bond cash and future price = F (M2 money supply growth, interest rate, dollar
exchange rate)
This relationship simulated last 20 years 40 daily international stock market stock
indices, including normal and major crisis (under stress discontinuous data) with average
error below 1.5 %. It predicted 1987 crash as FED raise fund rate 0.75 %: recent Nasdaq
plunge form 5100 to 3000 as Fed 6 interest rate hike and 1995 Baring betting on the wrong
side of Nikkei Index. And 1990 Nikkei crash from 38000 as Bank of Japan tightening the
money supply growth from 13 % to 5 %
Global Asset Prices Simulation and Portfolio Investment Strategy (Two master hands
controlling global stock prices)
This author have been successfully applying two master hands accurately tracking
simulating, forecasts monetary policy impact on global daily global stocks index (right master
hands controlling investor sentiments )and corporate earning ,hot stocks , IPO, ADR shares
prices(left master hands controlling corporate stock performance) during the last 20 years
in the boom and bust, burst cycle, These two master hands provide forward looking
instantaneous dynamics simulation forecast, instead of?speculate on the past economic and
corporate earning data?( 3 month behind) resulted overbought and oversold caused trillions
dollars market loss
Over 30 million China, Taiwan government, banking, finance, corporate CEO, fund managers,
analyst, traders, investors have been benefited by this author lecture on two master hands
controlling global stocks prices to China's 12 cities , Taiwan TV, radio daily, weekly
commentary , and workshops since 1987
Global Stock Index Simulation :The right master hand simulate last 20 years monetary
policy impact on daily stock index
This right master hand pinpoint the risks of overheated investor sentiments (monetary
policy tell you do not chase index when they?are too hot, when every fundamental and
technical analysts recommending bull market continue,, investors chasing ( the author
warned on July 20 1998 Dow approaching 9500, is overheated for 20 % correction, Next day
Greenspan warning on inflation and rate hike, drag Dow to 7500 and Jan 2000, Dr. Huang
warned on www.sina.com and www.osawh.com that Nasdaq overheated for correction to 3000 ,
It plunge from 5100 to 3000 later
Global corporate earning, profit margin simulation (Left master hands)
Corporate margin/earning = F( Sales, Costs) = F (raw material, financial, labor costs,
sale prices)=F (monetary policy, currency)
US refinery opera ting profit margin is very much depend on the crude oil cost, refining
products gasoline, heating oil prices . the relation is shown on Chart the margin varies
from 3 % 9 %
Global Corporate Stock Prices Simulation :
The left master hand simulate last 20 years monetary policy impact on daily industrial
supply, demand, prices, profit margin: raw material, financial, labor costs, sales and
unit prices, corporate earning, profit margin
global stock prices = F (Global stock index, corporate profit margin/earning)
The left master hand will tell you how monetary policy impact on the industrial sectors
supply demand, prices corporate earning, profit margin stock prices?decline is over, when
everybody is selling ready for turnaround
Therefore combing right master hands( investors sentiment) and the left master(corporate
performance) will accurately predicted last 20 years global stock prices (hot stocks, ADR,
IPO)
Hi-tech IPO stock prices simulation = F( Nasdaq index, corporate or industry group
earning)
These two master hand controlling IPO prices as well
For Internet stock index are related to US Fed money supply growth, interest rate and
investor sentiment (Nasdaq index), as for individual internet IPO stock prices, they are
related to the internet stock and Nasdaq index (investor sentiment in internet) and
corporate revenue and earning outlook(depend on industry trend and regional economy.
Global ADR shares prices = F( Home country investor sentiment, listed country investor
sentiment, stock earning, margin) = F ( home country stock index, US Nasdaq index,
corporate earning)
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Global Investment Banking, Crisis, Risk
Management :Simulation of central bank monetary policy impact on growth, and daily
interest rate, currency, commodity, stocks price stability
On the job training for online trading in Global Stocks indices
future OSA simulation forecasts
On the job training for online trading inGlobal Currencies
future OSA simulation forecasts
Weekend
OSA Journal Global hot stocks Buy/Sell/Hold : top10 global IT, Biotech, Old
economy, most active shares published each Saturday review OSA for
global economic impact on top corporate performance English Chinese
Central bank Monetary, Economic,
Finance Policy Analysis: for growth, markets prices stability
Bubble Burst USA China Hong Kong Taiwan
Thailand Japan S. Korea Singapore
India
EURO Russia/E. Europe Mexico Brazil
Global Procurement Strategy:
Monetary policy simulation Saves billions dollar on oil, commodity costs
OSA improve venture capital, new economy profitability, while minimize investment risks
venture risks IPO Prices Global ADR
Pre/post Merger acquisition performance,
cost reduction
Venture capital risks IPO Prices
Simulation Global ADR Pre/post
Merger acquisition Credit risk
simulation and control
Restructuring Pre/post merger Performance process
improvement Procurement Marketing Training
Monetary policy impact on Crude oil, global petrochemicals,
plastics prices, stock prices workshop
Banking/Finance Profit Improvement Workshop
Internet/Information Tech. Profit Improvement
Workshops
Global Asset Prices Simulation, Risk Management :Stocks, Bond, Commodity, Property Prices Simulation
Two master hands controling global
Bull, Bear Markets?, Buy, Sell, Hold for global stocks in 2001
Right hand simulate, control monetary policy impact on
daily financial , commodity market sentiments
Left Hand : simulate, control
cousumer business demand impact on industy, corporate earning, stock prices
Dr Huang has implemeted two master hand controlling global financial markets bull,
bear market and for daily buy/ sell/ hold decision one month ahead. He has lectured
to 30 millions China, Taiwan, US Radio, TV audienced, workshops tracking last 20 years,
accurately predicted the bull, bear, buy,sell/ hold decisions
Global Banking, Financial Crisis Simulation, Forecasts, Risk
Management
presented by OSA pioneer Dr. Warren
Huang to 20 Asian, US, EURO, ASEAN central banks governors, financial management
conferences 1999- 2001
S.OSA- Asset Bubble Burst- Simulation of Greenspan
Aug 27 , 1999, March 20, 2001 speech on focus on stock markets asset bubble burst in
Global Stock prices impact on house, business spending, housing properties prices,,
GDP and central banks Monetary Policy
A. OSA-Country Risks: Country inflation/Deflation economic and
business cycle, capital flow, currency, systemic credit, nonperformance loan, banking
crisis and default risks simulation and control
B. OSA-Credit Risk: Macro-economic
imbalance, currency, commodity, interest rate, stocks bond, derivative market
trading, policy, operation , liquidity default risks simulation, control,
C. OSA-Commodity: Policy, currency, oil
prices, supply/demand impact on Energy, Feed grain, food,metals, fibers
futures and derivative prices resulted trading loss simulation.
D. OSA-Currency: Interest rate spread, trade impact on
daily global currency , and it's derivatives prices dynamicsthe onset of currency crisis
risks simulation and control
E. OSA-Interest Rate: Policy, currency, inflation, commodity
price shocks impact on short , long term interest rate, treasury and corporate
bond spread and it's derivatives prices risks simulation , control
F. OSA- Market Risk; Policy, external shocks impact on global
money, currency, stocks, derivatives markets price risks simulation, control
G. OSA-Merger RIsk: Policy, external shocks, technology
innovation impact on pre/post merger/acquisition cost/benefit, profit margin, stock prices
performance risks simulation, control.:
Big is not beautiful, it is risky:
presented by Dr. Huang on JP Morgan sponsored post EURO banking and finance integration
and risk management strategy Nov. 26, 1998, Rome Italy
He warned banking finance industry mega merger emphasized on staff reduction nbenefit and
diversification , ignored post merger integration improvement on risk management decision
making resulted Citigroup, UBS billion dollar loss in RUssian, and LTCM crisis.
Dr Huang accurately predicted Chase Manhatten 36
billion dollar merge JP Morgan failed to support Dow above 11200 it
will be another one day rally, finance, JPM will give all it's gain to 150, Chase
plunge to 45 drag Dow down to test 10200 soon as Chase- JPM merger will not
help boost the stock market trading volume, while facing addition market slump related
crisis as both companies already experienced) 12/9/200)
Goldman Sach(GS)merger Spear Leed, stock market maker for 7 billion will not help GS near
term perfo rmance due to IPO slowdown and falling stock prices and trading volume. GS
shares will test 120 .(11/9/2000 HWP as predicted by Dr. Huang will
testing 100. dispite HWP merge Pricewaterhouse for 17 billion are too expensive,
will not help ne ar term HWP profit margin. HWP will be testing 100 (11/9/2000)
UBS offered 11.6 billion to merge Donaldson Lufkin
( the merger is too expensive and risky for UBS which just recoverd billion dollars loese
in 1998 RUssian and LTCM crisis , will face markets slump risk in year end. UBS share will
be down in the range 110 ans 150
Globa banking and finance stocks are overpriced through speculated on waves of
global finance mega mergers in Duetsch bank- Banker Trust, and other mergers can not
improve it's near term peroformance in global slowdown in loaan demand, slumping stock
prices and even exposed to biger nonperformance loan default risks. These stocks prices
will give all it's gain in the earning decline news month ahead
H.OSA-Procurement: Monetary policy, macroeconomic,
currency, oil price shock impact on global oil, petrochemicals, plastics, fibers,
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I.OSA-Real Estate Risk: Monetary policy, commodities
prices shock, stock markets wealth effect, inflation, capital flow impact on
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simualtion, control ,
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He has been invited to speak to top 20 global
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