Top down, bottom up approach to 2010 oil price Forecast by Proactive Structural Dynamic Demand Side  Oil, Natural Gas , Heating Oil, Gasoline Futures  Price Mechanism Global Financial, housing Bubble Burst, Recession Crisis, Stimulus Exit Strategy Impact Simulation :
 Proactive Structural Dynamic Demand Side  Oil Price Simulation : Accurately predicted Repeating 2008 April tax rebate resulted consumer demand for gasoline , US dollar weakness as US entering traveling holiday, summer vacation July 4 th peak driving  season,  and fuel oil demand from China, US  economic stimulus package.
 
 Beware of Oil, Gold , commodity price bubble burst due to weakness in business and consumer demand resulted slow recession  recovery, while complicated by excessive liquidity bubble resulted  global sovereign debt bubble burst crisis  from Dubai, Spain, UK, Portuge resulted commodity prices bubble lead to inflationary pressure and credit tightening in exit strategy.
Debt crisis in EURO area, strong US 4Q GDP of 5.7 %, driving dollar to new high to 1.36 EUR, 1.58 pound  drag gold from 1250 peak to 1060, oil from 82 to 69, are excessive given US 1.8 trillion budget deficit, and soaring consumer, business debt will drag dollar lower and oil, gold price rebound before March 
2010 oil, gasoline, heating oil, Natural gas prices forecast:
Oil price will be rebound from 69 to 75 in 1Q 2010, and to 72- 85 in 2 Q , and 3 Q  and 75- 85 in 4 Q
Gasoline price will be rebound from 190- 210 in 1 Q, 200- 250 in 2, 3 Q, 220- 260 in 4Q
heating oil price will be rebound from 190- 210 in 1 Q, 1850- 220-  in 2, 3 Q, 210- 250 in 4Q
Natural   price will be rebound from4.5-6.0  in 1 Q,  4.0- 5.0  in 2, 3 Q, 5.0- 6.5 in 4Q
Gold price will be rebound from1000- 1150 in 1 Q, 1150- 1250 in 2, 3 Q,  1200- 1350  in 4Q
US dollar peaking out in 1 Q, 1.54- 1.59-  pound and 1.55- 1.62   in 2Q, 3Q, 1. 59- 1.65 in   4 Q,
US dollar peaking out in 1 Q, 88- 93 Yen , 85- 90    in 2Q, 3Q,  85- 92  in   4 Q,
  Repeating last April  2008 tax rebate resulted consumer demand for gasoline , US dollar weakness as US entering traveling holiday, summer vacation peak driving  season,  and fuel oil demand from China economic stimulus package  and US 2009 tax rebate, 2 billion banking, finance bail out ,led to 50 % gain in stock prices resulted wealth push oil to 60- 75 , gasoline price  190- 225, fuel oil to 180- 200  new high 2009  peaking out in June-July-Aug. Sept., oil,  will drop to 55- 69 , Gasoline to 140- 180  , fuel oil to 150- 190 , Natural gas to 2.4 to 4.0 after Aug summer demand, peaking out during Sept- Nov off season  and back to 65- 78 fuel oil rebound to 200- 240, gasoline to 180-220, natural gas to 3.50- 5.0  in 2009 year end, early spring 2010 cold  winter swing  peak demand  by Dr. Warren Huang Pioneering, Proactive Structural Oil, Energy Price mechanism Simulation Forecast Real time  Daily NYMEX, Chicago, China Oil, Natural Gas  Market Price  market forces mechanism tracking, forecast, risk hedging
(demand side prices mechanism forecasts) OSA pioneer  Dr Warren Huang Dr. Warren Huang accurate predicted 2008 July oil prices soared to 146 , plunged after July 4 th holiday below 100 due to decline in tax rebate demand impact and again on this webpage and Wall Street Journal Market beat blog that oil prices repeat last year doubled from 30 to 72 due to tax rebate in  July 4 th peak demand, and plunge to 55- 65 after July 4 th after weakening in demand due to deep recession
predicted Feb. March 2009 in Hong Kong , Pudong investment summit forum on Proactive Structural Dynamic Demand Side future, cash Oil Price Simulation :  US tax rebate in 2009 and China economic stimulus package increased holiday travel season gasoline to 250,, fuel oil price to 210

 Predicted by Dr. Warren Huang, pioneer of Proactive Global Asset Pricing Mechanism , June 2007 , Beijing, Wall Street Journal Economic, Market Beat
 Blog Aug.2007 that Global Housing price bubble burst, prices plunge 30 % into 2009 drag  global economy into recession and stocks bond, oil, commodities, metals futures, Derivative Asset Prices Bubbles Burst with 50 % Price Correction Cause Credit, Financial Crisis and Economic Recession, ( As Dow Jones, SP 500, NASDAQ drag global stock indices plunged 50 %-70 % into 2002 recession low , oil price plunged 70 % from 147 to 46，gas from 15 to 6.5, Gas oil from1300 to 600 , corn  from 800 to 350, cotton from 80 to 44 ） 
　

  Proactive Asset Prices Bubbles Burst impact on Global Mortgage, Credit, Financial Crisis, Economic Recession

provide   what, why, how and timing of price mechanism movement see  www.blogs.wsj.com energy blog  Proactive Recession Strategy
  by  OSA   pioneer  Dr. Warren Huang wh3928@yahoo.com

Comment to  Wall Street Journal Market Beat   Blog Aug 21, 2008  2008 12:26AM ; oil  above 120 means trouble

Based on my 30 years demand side oil price simulation , oil price is very much depend on global consumer, business seasonal demand on gasoline fuel and downstream 5000 products ,oil price plunge to 112 is extremely oversold before labor day holiday travel peak, giving US current  recession while global travel and housing, auto demand still at their peak.
therefore, oil price will definitely rebound to 130 before labor day on gasoline inventory reduction. It will be traded side way between 60- 90 in Sept- Nov. off peak season demand. and rebound to 70- 80in winter demand and US economic entering recession. details on www.osawh.coom/Globaloiln.htm   www.osawh.com/oilpetpri.htm  www.osawh.coom/commody.html

Comment to  Wall Street Journal Market Beat , Yahoo Finance Blog Aug 8, 2008  2008 11:26AM ; oil below 100 means trouble

 Continued SEC restriction on naked short of financial and Fed rescue extended to Jan 2009 indicating As I predicted on this blog that we are half way to housng, stock market correction, credit and financial crisis. banking, housing, financial; stocks correction continue into Jan 2009. Banking finance share give up yesterday gain led to Dow Jones index fail to continue its 267 point rally and retreat from 10600 this morning plunged to 11400.
Any rally out of speculation on economic, business, oil price news are bear market rally, and not sustainable, give up it gain and heading lower.
I predicted on this blog accurately that oil price will made correction 120- 147 after July 4 th and  before labor day off holiday due to rebate check support  summer travel demand, oil price plunged from 147 to 120 since July 4 th and rebound 4 dollar today reflecting gasoline supply down 3.5 million in the latest week due to travel demand. led to oil rebound from 120 to 125 today and continue to challenge 130
detail on www.osawh.com/Globaloiln.html  www.osawh.com/oilpetpri.htm  www.osawh.com/fund2008.htm  www.osawh.com/OSAmarkettoday.htm

 Dr. Warren Huang pioneered  Demand side daily NYMEX, London, China oil gas, fuels  commodity price mechanism, on US Oil & Gas Journal 1983, circulating to 80 countries,  tracking forecast last 20 years daily emerging bull/bear market trend.and energy crisis.:
A. Proactive structural demand side market price mechanism simulation: US, China, global major consumer countries monetary , economic, fiscal policy, WTO policy impactt on inflation, interest rate, currency, seasonal summer driving , winter heating oil demand and interest rate , economic stimulus impact on consumer, business demand , currencies, supply, inventory, and market speculation, technical charting impact on NYMEX, London, China gasoline, heating oil, gas ,crude oil daily prices
B. Application to billion dollar Integrated  oil  upstream/downstream supply demand chain and TQM cost reductions and identification of areas for strategic operations improvement Global supply, demand simulation forecast, seasonal consumer, business demand, inflation, currency impact on last 20 years oil, energy ( crude oil, gasoline, gas oil, naphtha, natural gas, petrochemical feedstock,  futures prices,Do not miss this proactive strategic investment , trillion dollar long short hedging strategy workshops series by OSA  interest  rates, currency, stock, bond, derivatives, housing, commodities, oil asset pricing and risks valuation markets fundamentals price mechanism, accurately warned on Wall Street Journal Market beat Blog Sept.19, 2007 that US housing price slump continue into summer 2008 drag economy into inflationary recession and US, global stock indices bear market correction, dollar to new low and oil above 115-145, gold break 1000, record , metal, feed grain prices, Bear Stearn 30 billion dollar MBS hedge fund failure  despite Fed rate cuts  and stimulus package He also warned top QFII management on Peking Univ June 2007 International Financial Engineering Conference that China overheated housing, stock market wealth gain resulted inflation over 8.7 % will lead to China Peoples Bank credit tightening to remove excessive liquidity, housing, stock markets follow US housing price slump, recession, bear market correction, with Shanghai A testing 2550-2750- through summer 2008  
  full day Proactive Strategic Supply chain cost reduction workshops
5 Day Oil, currency, metal  Pricing and  Strategic Investment Workshop : Global Interest rate, Dollar, Oil, Gold, Metals Stock Indices,  and Housing,  Stocks  Bubbles
Comment by Warren Huang -Yahoo Finance Wall Street Journal Market Beat  July 18, 2008  1602pm

My demand side oil price simulation tracking last 25 year daily oil price since 1980 ( patented published on US Oil & Gas Journal Journal 1983 Itpredicte since last Sept on Wall Street Journal Market beat and energy blog that excessive rate cut drag dollar lower and economic rebate check driving up summer gasoline peak demand push oil price to 145 on July 4, ( while most analyst specualte oil price will go to 150- 200 , I insisted oil price stay below 146 ) and consolidate into 120- 146 after July till labor day after rebate check is about to run out and plunge into 105- 125 after labor day till early Nov. off peak season,  And rebound to 110- 135 in winter heating oil peak demand season Nov. Feb 2009
Oil and commodity price bubble will burst entering bear market correction oil price stay below 100 ) only we facing recession late this year-to early next year. after Fed rate hike,
Any economic stimulus to support the housing markets and rebate check to boost consumer, business demand will be used by market speculators to drive oil back to 130- 145.
detail on www.osawh.com/oilpetpri.htm  www.osawh.com/Globaloiln.htm
Comment by Warren Huang -Wall Street Journal Market Beat  June  29, 2008  1202pm and  www.osaglobalstrategicmanagement.com/blog1  

Dr. Warren Huang (黃華南博士) Pioneer, proactive structural dynamic global inflation, macro economy, daily financial markets interest rates, currency, stock, bond, derivatives, housing, commodities, oil asset pricing and risks valuation markets fundamentals price mechanism, accurately warned on Wall Street Journal Market beat Blog Sept.19, 2007 and Mar 5, 2008 masterclass  workshop China fund world 2008, Pudong, China  to Goldman Sach managing directors JPM, UBS and 150 China QDII/QFII fund managers that  US Fed aggressive rate cuts drag dollar to 1.53-1.65 EURO, 95- 108 Yen, economic stimulus boost consumer spending on gasoline and jet fuel summer, demand, driving gasoline , heating oil to 415, oil price to 121-145, commodity price double, will peak out as US dollar rebound follow Fed ending rate cuts cycle , can not stop sub-prime crisis spreading, regional  housing price slump 30-50 %  and credit crisis, crunch crisis continue through  2008 drag economy into 2009 double dip  inflationary recession resulted trillion housing and stock market loss and US, global stock indices bear market 30- 50 % , Dow Jones test 10000- 11000, NASDAQ PLUNGE 30 % testing 2000-2200 and high fliers (GOOG, PTR, AAPL) , IT, retail stocks facing 30-50 % correction,    with banking, finance, housing share price plunge 50- 70 %, dollar making to new low,   commodity prices doubled, widening bond , CDS spread and failure in MBS/CDO, Bear Stearn 30 billion dollar MBS hedge fund and government steps rescue Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac bail out,  despite Fed rate cuts . He also warned top global QFII management on Peking Univ June 2007 International Financial Engineering Conference that China overheated housing, stock market wealth gain resulted inflation over 8.7 % will lead to China Peoples Bank credit tightening to remove excessive liquidity, Banking housing, stock markets follow US housing price slump, recession, bear market correction, with Shanghai A testing  2550 till summer 2008, stamp tax for stock trading cut to 1 % provide initial support to 3000 level, and plunged again to 2550-  2750  after Dow Jones plunged to 11000,commodities, oil asset pricing and risks valuation markets fundamentals price mechanism,  ,capital on the emerging bull, bear market trend through optimal long- short strategic asset allocation. portfolio management, He recommended US mutual fund (  US oil fund follow oil , gas price doubled Ultra short financial,  up 110 %, Ultra short QQQ ( Nasdaq ) UP 40 %. , and  recommended ETF: US natural gas up  100  % as natural gas soared from 6 to 12., and Japan crude oil fund up 110, as oil price doubled from 70 to 147. and Oppenheimer Commodities  up 90 % as, corn, soybean price doubled  
. He predicted 2005 on China Oil Markets Conference workshop, Beijin to multinational oil, QFII CEO, executives that oil prices soared to 80 , due to increasing demand from China/US   global housing, auto, construction materials and transportation, dragged by  US housing market weakness, oil price will be supported by final leg of dollar plunge against Yen, and inflation, seasonal demand in gasoline, heating oil and global housing, constructional materials, metals energy consumption. it peaking out summer gasoline demand at  80,

Comment by Warren Huang Wall Street Journal Market Beat- June 19, 2008 at 2:51 pm

From my tracking , proactive structural simulation last 30 year US/global housing price bubbles fundamental mechanism are driven by demand side housing, equities, wealth and monetary, policy. Housing price slump is due to soaring prices beyond affordability and investment incentive in poor underlying fundamental, ( soaring job cuts, unsold inventory, plunging consumer confidence). current housing price have to plunge t ( down 50 %) to more attractive affordable, as it did in all housing bubble burst, Even rate cuts, stimulus package will not change the fundamental supply demand market forces.
Also my 30 years demand side oil price and global currency price mechanism research indicates, any rate cuts, t stimulate consumer, business demand will make dollar less
attractive due to interest spread, it will drive up demand for oil, commodities, and led to higher inflation, the dollar will then goes up, as Fed stop rate cuts, swing to rate hikes to fight inflation to cut demand, will drive oil price down, This process take a few month to react. Recent speculation on China raise fuel oil price 18 % to cut China demand, drag oil price down is misleading, we are faing oil price profit taking, not respond to China fuel price raise ( I told many times on China oil market conference to global multinational COE in Beijin since 2005.
Do not blame OPEC for oil price manipulating, soaring oil price are resulted from market speculators use continued global demand, weak dollar to excessive valuation.
and downstream refinery tight capacity as lectures many OPEC petroleum ministers and multinational oil CEO.
details on www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm  www.osawh.com/globaloiln.htm www.osawh.com/wealthm.html www.osawh.com/currency.html

Comment by Warren Huang -Wall Street Journal Market Beat June 11, 2008 at 3:21 pm

Comment by Warren Huang -Wall Street Journal Market Beat May 22, 2008   1:46pm  on Oil, Commodity Bubble?

Comment by Warren Huang -Wall Street Journal Market Beat May2, 2008  6;55pm 

Comment by Warren Huang -Wall Street Journal Market Beat May20, 2008  1202pm and  osaglobalstrategicmanagement.com/ blog1 

Predicted by OSA pioneer Comment by Warren Huang Wall Street Journal Market Beat Blog- March 10, 2008 at 10:10 pm

From my pioneering proactive structural demand side oil price mechanism simulation on US Oil & Gas Journal 1983,  circulated  million copies to 80 countries, I accurately predicted oil price from 9 to 100
I predicted 2005 on China Oil Markets Conference workshop, Beijin to multinational oil, QFII CEO, executives that oil prices soared to 80 , due to increasing demand from China/US   global housing, auto, construction materials and transportation, despite dragged by  US housing market weakness, oil price will be supported by second leg of dollar plunge against Yen, and inflation, seasonal demand in gasoline, heating oil and global housing, constructional materials, metals energy consumption. it peaking out last summer gasoline demand at 80, Fed 225 points rate cut, led to Yen plunge to 100-105, and EURO to 1.55 , driving oil price to 90- 115 , supporting winter heating oil demand season begin Oct- Nov , and in cold winter, and boosted spring summer driving peak demand in 2008 through economic stimulus, tax cuts  

 Comment by Warren Huang  Wall Street energy Blog- September 18, 2007 at 2:57 pm

Hedge fund can not run against the fundamental supply , demand of oil upstream and downstream., they suffered trillion dollar loss by betting on the wrong side of investment.
Based on my 40 years experiences with US major oil and China, US oil exploration, production, refining, marketing, investment
I predicted in 2005 on China Oil Market conference that oil price will be soared from 55 to 80 in summer 2006- 2007, due to Soaring China, US, global housing price bubble demand for energy intensive construction material and consumer demand for fuel, gasoline. while refinery facing bottleneck, above 90 % capacity, crude oil amount to 90 % of refinery cost, they are reluctant to produce fuel at current gasoline price, that is why gasoline inventory is low.
It will take time for China alternative energy to play any significant contribution.oil price will have support at 60,even in next year US recession, due to China, and global housing market demandand weak dollar, details can be found on www.osawh.com/oilpetpri.htm

 Do not miss again on book his 2007 -2008 5-day US/China macroeconomic control, currency, oil, commodities, bond, stocks futures, derivatives investment strategy workshops

Dr. Huang pioneered proactive, structural oil, energy, downstream products market forces demand and  prices mechanism Operations Simulation Analysis (OSA), patented, published on US Oil& Gas Journal 1983, Hydrocarbon Processing information systems handbook 1991-2005, with millions copies circulated to 78 countries oil executives. He developed, implemented  hundreds simulators while he was senior analyst for US Mobil, AMOCO, Phillips Petroleum headquarters global strategic management and government energy consultant  for Taiwan Chinese Petroleum, China Petrochemical global investment, market pricing strategy and China SINOPEC investment, supply chain, refining strategy
He wrote hundred articles on Taiwan, China daily newspaper, investment journals an
predicted month ahead of the energy crisis, oil prices from 8 to 80 since 1980, and served as lectured to China, Taiwan, US 15 cities 30 million TV, radio, institutional, HNW investors and keynote speaker to hundreds global  Chemical Engineering, oil, OPEC petroleum ministers  conferences, workshop executives workshops

Global Oil and downstream demand, pricing markets mechanism OSA
 provide that what, why, how and timing of last 20 years emerging market trend of price movement
These oil markets prices mechanism simulators,  integrating macroeconomic inflation, financial economic interest rates, currency and  industrial economic oil prices downstream seasonal demand and prices mechanism, tracking forecast last 20 years daily global oil, downstream prices with average error below 1.5 % , correlation constant over 0.95. 
US Fed  and global  central banks excessive rates and tax cuts  since 2002 leading to China, US, global energy intensive housing , constructional  material and auto industries demand pushed oil prices from 16 to 80 since 2001, predicted by OSA pioneer Dr. Warren Huang in his Beijing oil markets conferences lectures and workshops to hundreds global multinational oil, QFII CEO, senior executives in 2001, 2003, 2005
 
Current supply side oil price forecast, speculate on the OPEC production and global downstream refinery operating capacity, inventory data and unreliable  government demand forecast betting on the wrong direction of price movement.

please send your comment to Dr. Warren Huang  wh3928@yahoo.com