Oil Daily Price  2011  Forecast by Proactive Structural Dynamic Demand Side  Oil, Natural Gas , Heating Oil, Gasoline Futures  Price Mechanism Global Financial, housing Bubble Burst , Inflation Control, Double dip Recession, Debt Crisis, QE2,  Causes, Consequences Impact Simulation :
 Proactive Structural Dynamic Demand Side  Oil Price Simulation : Accurately predicted Repeating 2008 April tax rebate resulted consumer demand for gasoline , US dollar weakness as US entering traveling holiday, summer vacation Labor day, July 4 th peak driving  season,  and fuel oil demand from China, US  economic stimulus package.  

 We are repeating 2007 this summer, as tax cuts, QE2 and prolonged Libya turmoil, will push oil prices to 115 and commodity to record,  , However, phasing out of 600 billion QE2 after June   EURO, US Debt crisis,  GDP   declining ISM  to 50.2, due to ending of tax rebate, and government budget cut due to soaring budget deficit 9.2 % of GDP, facing credit downgrade, lead to oil , commodity price bubble burst coupled with double dip housing and economic inflationary recession  pressure 2011- 12
Oil price will plunge from 115 to 66- 85 range after Sept gasoline peak demand season    , gasoline to 200- 270, heating oil to 200- 280 and gold price peaking out 1850- 1950 , weaker dollar can not support it, due double dip recession fear 2012
Beware of Oil,  metals, commodity price bubble burst due to  phasing out of,  QE2 try to stimulate weakness in business and consumer demand fighting deflation, by injecting 600 billion with 100 billion monthly into the monetary system  , buying 10 year bond driving interest down to 2.4 %, and dollar depreciation let to investor speculating commodity,, metal, and stock prices up over 30 %  to drive up inflation from 1 % to 3.5 % in June lead to soaring food and energy price, cutting into consumer spending and global central bank raise interest rate fighting inflation drag US export growth despite cheap dollar since Nov. 2011 , consumer spending to 3 %, business up 10 %  driving import and trade deficit  drag 1Q  GDP  from 3.1 % to 1.8 % , slow recession  recovery, even weak dollar can not save it

      • Wall Street Journal Market Beat  1:39 pm August 4, 2011 Warren Huang wrote:
      I predicted on Wall Street Journal real time economic blog last Oct. that US excessive rate cuts, liquidity and QE2 created stock, commodity prices bubble will not boost housing market and real economy, it only further inflate the personal business, government debt. As consumer spending decline in June due to soaring energy, food cost, GDP dorp to 0.4 %, in Q1, and 1.3 % in Q2,ISM plunge to 50.5,The new debt ceiling will lead to further spending cuts, with less economic stimulus, and hard to justify any further QE ahead,, DOw Jone retest 11,000, SP 500 retest 1150 , NASDAQ retest 2500 China, Global rate hikes responding to soaring commodities, food, energy prices and excessive, ECB deb crisis led to housing, economic into double dip recession liquidity details Oil, commodities prices facing bubble burst repeating 2008- 2009 on http://www.osawh.com/recession.html

We are running out of option this time to avoid the double dip housing , market slump and economic recession as indicated by
failure of QE2 drove interest rate to near zero record low fail to stimulate the economy, the job market and save the housing market, it only drive stock commodity oil,  market prices and inflation with cutting into consumer spending drag economy into recession, Fed used all it bail out money to save the banking finance market , government spend all its stimulus money lead to 14 trillion debt, compare 200 billion debt last time ,we are still facing GDP only  Q1, 0.3 %, Q2 1.3% with ISM manufacturing supply chain index plunge to 50.4 recession and service sector index to 52.2, consumer spending down 0.2 % in June , consumer and investor sentiment all pointing to new low, CISCO and Merck will layoff almost 30,000 even July unemployment rate drop to 9.1 % which is lagging indicators, we will facing much higher unemployment  return to 9.5 % in the month ahead
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/government-t-save-market-time-151809226.html

  
Review of QE1 ( 2008- 2010 )  http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/10/qe1-timeline.html
and QE2 http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/10/qe1-timeline.html    QE2 review   1Q 11 US GDP
http://www.financial-planning.com/news/barclays-schroders-janney-montgomery-2673008-1.html

 2011-12  Global  QE2, monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact Interest rate, Daily Dollar, Oil, Gold, Metals and Downstream Stocks Futures, Option Prices Market Forces Mechanism Simulation,  Forecast, Risks Hedging 5 Day in-house Workshop

Commodity Daily Prices Market forces prices mechanism for commodity future prices movement OSA and forecasts

      commodity name market market  demand , QE2 impact / early warning                                                                       preQE2             Peak QE2 curent Post QE2 trading range
      CRB index NYFE QE2 consumer demand rebound and weak dollar will support CRB rebound             290                   380   320- 360
      10 yr T-bond yld CBOT consumer demand rebound and falling dollar will drive inflation, rate higher           2.40                  3.60 2.60- 3.00
      10 interest swap CBOT soaring commodity, oil , asset bubbles drive yield higher 1.10- 2.20
      Energy/ oils futures prices
      Nymex lt oil NYMEX  summer consumer demand, weak dollar push oil price,  post QE2 correction          88                    115 66- 86
      Brent oil LO  consumer demand, plunging dollar drive oil price  post QE2 correction            r     90                     126 79 - 116
      Nat gas NYMEX    falling consumer demand, strong dollar drag  gas price  will rebound in winter        4.2                     4.8                         35  - 4.9
      Heating oil NYMEX  falling consumer demand, strong dollar drag  oil price   will rebound in winter     230                    360                          230-299
      R. gasoline NYMEX  summer consumer demand, weak dollar drag  oil price will drop post QE2              230                    399   234- 288
      Propane NYMEX  falling consumer demand, strong dollar drag  oil price will rebound in winter 0.8- 1.10
      gas oil NYMEX  falling consumer demand, strong dollar drag  oil price will rebound in winter 500-660
      Precious and Heavy  Metals Futures prices
      Gold NYMEX inflation pressure   demand, weak dollar push gold price will drop in post QE2       1380                 1575                  1650- 1950
      Silver Nymex Post QE2 will drag silver price to pre QE2                                                                    30                     48               30- 38
      Platinum NYMEX falling consumer demand, strong dollar drag  plt price in post QE2                         1700                  1860                         1630- 1800
      copper NYMEX  falling housing consumer demand, strong dollar drag  copper price in post QE2     3.75                  4.75                         3.25- 4.20
      Aluminum NYMEX  falling consumer demand, strong dollar drag  oil price will rebound in winter 0.66- 0.95
      　 　  Fibers/ wood  
      Cotton NCE Improved supply,  strong dollar drag  cotton drag cotton price to pre QE2 level            110                   220             90- 120
      Lumber falling housing demand, housing price drag lumber below QE2 price                      280                  340                           200- 240
       
      wheat CBOT will give up all gain to pre QE2 level                                                                         750                  920                         600- 770
      corn CBOT  following oil price in energy demand                                                                       550                  760  600-750
      soybean CBOT   give up all its gain to pre QE2 level                                                                        1250               1475   1200- 1490
      Sugar CBOT   give up all its gain to pre QE2 level                                                                 22                     30              22-28
      rice CBOT     give up all its gain to pre QE2 level                                                                12                    17 13- 17

 Beware of  excessive liquidity, from stimulus, bailout resulted equities, oil, gold , commodity , housing , debt  asset price bubble burst due to China housing price bubble and inflation control , US debt crisis related downgrade and Asian exit strategy rate hike fighting inflation lead to weakness in business and consumer demand resulted double  dip recession, while complicated by excessive liquidity bubble resulted  global sovereign debt bubble burst crisis  from US downgrade, PIGS (Greece, Spain, UK, Portugee  se , Italy)) resulted commodity prices bubble lead to inflationary pressure and credit tightening in exit strategy.
      2011  currency, oil, gasoline, heating oil, Natural gas prices forecast:
US dollar steady in current  narrow range against  major currency  despite QE2,  credit downgrade only depreciate against Asian currency with good trade surplus.
1.35- 1.45 EURO, 1.58- 1.64 pound and 70- 80 Yen
China RMB will stay  in narrow range 6.30- 6.450
Australia 0.95- 0.99, China RMB 6.3- 6.45, Singapore 1.120- 1.25  Taiwan NT 27.5- 29.5  Won 1025- 1100  Indonesia  8300- 8500  India 42.5- 45   Malaysia  3.00- 3.20   Thailand 28.5- 30
China credit tightening housing price bubble and inflation control,  in 2011 to reduce GDP from 12 % to 8 %, M2 money supply growth from 28 to 13 % in 2011 and US exit strategy fighting facing double dip recession, with near zero interest rte till 2013 will cut oil demand and  lead to oil price peaking out in summer facing bubble bursst 2011
 Oil price will be peaking out 66- 86 after QE2 ended in 2011    3 Q  and 71- 89 in 4 Q   2011
Gasoline price will be   260- 280 in  3 Q, 190- 220 in 4Q , 2011
heating oil price will be 210- 294 3 Q, 250- 280 in 4Q   2011
Natural   price will be rebound from 3.5-4.50   3 Q, 5.0- 6.  in 4Q   2011
Gold price will be rebound from 1650- 1910 in 3 Q,  1600- 1940  in 4Q   2011 due to recession
US dollar decline due to downgrade but   continued debt crisis in PIGS and UK  support US dollar  1.35- 1.45  EURO ,in 3 Q, 1.25- 1.42 in 4 Q   2011
and 1.55- 1.69   pound in   in 3, 4 Q 2011
US dollar 70- 80    3Q,  70- 76-   in   4 Q, 2011 due to Japan weak recession recovery, US double dip  recession
 China stable, consistent, gradual independent RMB policy  will lead RMB appreciate in 4 % range to 6.3- 6.45 against US dollar and basket of money ( US, Yen, EURO)
predicted Feb. March 2009 in Hong Kong , Pudong investment summit forum on Proactive Structural Dynamic Demand Side future, cash Oil Price Simulation :  US tax rebate in 2009 and China economic stimulus package
We are repeating 2007 this summer, as tax cuts, QE2 and prolonged Libya turmoil,  summer gasoline holiday demand May- July, will push oil prices to 120 and commodity to record, ( despite recent oil price plunged  from 114 to  to 97, it will recover all its loss rebound to 114- 120 , commodity price  will follow oil price rebound in early summer, and facing bubble burst responding to phasing out of QE2 coupled with double dip housing and economic inflationary slowdown , GDP will be slowdown to 1.4 % in 2011  facing double dip recession

  • Dr. Huang demand side oil, gold, commodities forecast accurately predicted to 2008, 2009 China world fund summit in Pudong  global multinational oil, commodity, fund managers, manager directors  that gold price peaking out at 1450 ( global manager predicted over 2000) 
    QE2 600 billion excess liquidity  and tax cut, tax rebate stimulate consumer business demand for gasoline demand push price over 4.00 a gallon and oil price facing short term shock , Japan tsunami, and   Libya turbulence soared from oversupplied position of 85 to 112, continue into summer for 120 peak in July  , it will return to normal seasonal trading range from 99 to 72-  after phasing out of QE2 in summer    
  • Dr. Huang told 2008- 2009  QF II manager directors  that gold price peaking out at 1450 ( global manager predicted over 2000)  oil price traded 70- 90.

      Despite US Fed 600 billion procurement Treasury plan to drive down interest rate 0.25- 0.5 % to spur up business, consumer housing demand,  let dollar depreciate to drive up commodity,  gold , stock prices 20 % to generate inflation to 2 %, due to EURO debt crisis in EURO area, due to crisis aversion  ,will support dollar to 1.29- 1.45 EURO, 1.45-1.59 pound ,  US slow down in the first half,  2011 with GDP down to 2.5 % , record government , personal, business, consumer debt, unemployment  will lead to euro rebound and weakening in Yen due to Japan    tsunami crisis but facing slowdown , US debt crisis related downgrade will drag dollar lower and push gold price break 1500 to 1550- 1600.  Asian , Euro credit tightening, and phasing out of QE2 summer 2011, will lead to oil, commodity, gold price bubble burst , drag gold from 1550 peak to 1300, oil  peaking out at 120 drop to 75- 89, copper, aluminum, silver  commodity prices will peaking out current level due to steady US dollar gain  major currency, peaking weakness in US consumer, business demand, and China Asian rate hike  fighting commodities, housing bubbles, cutting into demand in commodities
         US  Global credit, financial crisis resulted risk aversion, dump high yield currency ( pound， EURO， A  ￥）t US dollar despite  US facing deflation risk,  QE2 driving down interest rate and declining export, soaring trade  and current account deficit due to strong dollar resulted export decline and bail out, stimulus tax cut spending, soaring budget deficit( 1.5 trillion)  switch to low yield  Yen are excessive, while EURO rebound due to  32 billion trade surplus, Japan enjoyed 80 billion trade surplus  vs US 40 billion trade deficit   and 1.8 trillion budget deficit ( already reduced from 57 billion due to  recession  resulted plunge in import 
    US business, consumer spending facing uncertain outlook, due to  US GDP  4 Q grow 3.2 % in 4 Q due to heavy holiday discount, ISM to 60 are not sustainable, facing slowdown in 1 Q 2011, any GDP over 4.0 % will drive CPI over 2.0 % and inflationary , will lead to terminate QE2 and facing rate hikes   

    Proactive Structural Dynamic Demand Side  Oil Price Simulation 
     
    　
  • Dr. Warren Huang Comment to Wall Street Journal Market beat  May15, 2010 on US and global stock markets overoptimistic economy and stock market crash and trillion bailout for EURO debt crisis:
  • 30 years global financial , liquidity,  credit, debt, currency, Housing, Commodities, Commodity, Equities, Bond Asset Prices Bubble Burst, Currency asset bubble burst financial crisis simulation indicating that excessive liquidity, trillion dollar bailout to create high GDP, Capital Markets and Housing Markets Growth, free float/peg  currency are not, should and can not  be sustainable and it is  inflationary, will  repeating eventual debt, liquidity  financial crisis, asset bubbles burst with or without central bank macro-economical , housing  policy control,  even inflation stay below 3 %. Only these integrated proactive   structural ECB  EURO area economic systems in achieve GDP, capital markets growth, currency, price crisis/risks  stability
     US , EURO stocks investors and economist are overoptimistic about US 1 Q GDP growth at 3.2 %, April PMI at 60, and rebound in housing and retail sales 2010  all due to housing stimulus credit soon to expire in April, and tax rebate resulted consumer spending rebound at 6 % will peaking out after May, Greece, Euro area debt crisis ( despite one trillion bail out to  support Euro and PIGS  debt crisis will not be able to solve the worst economic, financial crisis in EURO history since WWI, it will ,drag GDP growth to 1 %and recession , dollar appreciation from 1.5 to 1.20 , US Fed to remove more than 1 trillion excessive liquidity from capital market already cut m2 money supply growth from year ago 10 % peak to March 1.3 %euro will further slowdown US export growth in the second half , facing credit tightening, rate hike as summer inflation heat up , China credit tightening slow GDP to 8 % by year end , India, Austria, Korea interest rate hikes will slow down GDP growth , leading to US export decline related  while any further exit strategy, credit tightening, inflationary control, rate hikes will lead to economic growth  double dip to below  2.5 % by year end . US stocks are extremely overpriced , subject to 20- 30 % correction.
    Dollar reach 4 year high against Euro to 1.22, Euro debt crisis drag economy to the edge of recession and China, Asian credit tightening fighting housing price bubble, inflation facing GDP slowdown to 7.5 % 4Q, US removing excessive liquidity, credit tightening, M2 money supply growth drow to 1.3%, facing slowdown in the second half after tax rebate and housing stimulus is over, oil prices plunge fro 88 to test 66- 69 near term, rebound to 82, gold price facing resistance above 1250 due to strong dollar and econmic slowdown, plunging oil prices, will be trade 1200- 1260.
    Dow Jones, NASDAQ, S&P stock index forecasts
    Dow Junes will be return to consolidate in 9000- 9900 soon , NASDAQ test 2000- 2200, S&P test 1000- 1100 , London Financial Times index test 5000 , DAX test 5200 and may test in second financial crisis dip triggered by Greek and PIGS countries debt crisis,  inflation control, US China/Asian slowdown,


 predicted Feb. March 2009 in Hong Kong , Pudong investment summit forum on Proactive Structural Dynamic Demand Side future, cash Oil Price Simulation :  US tax rebate in 2009 and China economic stimulus package increased holiday travel season gasoline to 250,, fuel oil price to 210

 Predicted by Dr. Warren Huang, pioneer of Proactive Global Asset Pricing Mechanism , June 2007 , Beijing, Wall Street Journal Economic, Market Beat
 Blog Aug.2007 that Global Housing price bubble burst, prices plunge 30 % into 2009 drag  global economy into recession and stocks bond, oil, commodities, metals futures, Derivative Asset Prices Bubbles Burst with 50 % Price Correction Cause Credit, Financial Crisis and Economic Recession, ( As Dow Jones, SP 500, NASDAQ drag global stock indices plunged 50 %-70 % into 2002 recession low , oil price plunged 70 % from 147 to 46，gas from 15 to 6.5, Gas oil from1300 to 600 , corn  from 800 to 350, cotton from 80 to 44 ） 
　

  Proactive Asset Prices Bubbles Burst impact on Global Mortgage, Credit, Financial Crisis, Economic Recession


provide   what, why, how and timing of price mechanism movement see  www.blogs.wsj.com energy blog  Proactive Recession Strategy
  by  OSA   pioneer  Dr. Warren Huang wh3928@yahoo.com

Comment to  Wall Street Journal Market Beat   Blog Aug 21, 2008  2008 12:26AM ; oil  above 120 means trouble

Based on my 30 years demand side oil price simulation , oil price is very much depend on global consumer, business seasonal demand on gasoline fuel and downstream 5000 products ,oil price plunge to 112 is extremely oversold before labor day holiday travel peak, giving US current  recession while global travel and housing, auto demand still at their peak.
therefore, oil price will definitely rebound to 130 before labor day on gasoline inventory reduction. It will be traded side way between 60- 90 in Sept- Nov. off peak season demand. and rebound to 70- 80in winter demand and US economic entering recession. details on www.osawh.coom/Globaloiln.htm   www.osawh.com/oilpetpri.htm  www.osawh.coom/commody.html

Comment to  Wall Street Journal Market Beat , Yahoo Finance Blog Aug 8, 2008  2008 11:26AM ; oil below 100 means trouble

My demand side oil price forecast predicted last 20 years global economic, consumer, business demand impact on oil price.
It predicted US peak summer demand and rebate check pushed oil price to 147 July 4 th, and warned that after labor day, run out of rebate check and aftrer off peak Sept- Oct weak demand period, oil price will be plunge  below  any US economic recession in the final quarter will drag oil price below  70- 100  all sectors will be facing falling demand and price, profits, bad to economy and stock market.
details on www.osawh.com/Globaloiln.htm  www.osawh.com/hp2001h.html www.osawh.com/fund2008.htm

 Comment to  Wall Street Journal Market Beat , Yahoo Finance Blog July 230 2008 11:26AM ;  Oil price rebound from 120 ,We are half way to housing and stock market correction

 Continued SEC restriction on naked short of financial and Fed rescue extended to Jan 2009 indicating As I predicted on this blog that we are half way to housng, stock market correction, credit and financial crisis. banking, housing, financial; stocks correction continue into Jan 2009. Banking finance share give up yesterday gain led to Dow Jones index fail to continue its 267 point rally and retreat from 10600 this morning plunged to 11400.
Any rally out of speculation on economic, business, oil price news are bear market rally, and not sustainable, give up it gain and heading lower.
I predicted on this blog accurately that oil price will made correction 120- 147 after July 4 th and  before labor day off holiday due to rebate check support  summer travel demand, oil price plunged from 147 to 120 since July 4 th and rebound 4 dollar today reflecting gasoline supply down 3.5 million in the latest week due to travel demand. led to oil rebound from 120 to 125 today and continue to challenge 130
detail on www.osawh.com/Globaloiln.html  www.osawh.com/oilpetpri.htm  www.osawh.com/fund2008.htm  www.osawh.com/OSAmarkettoday.htm

 Dr. Warren Huang pioneered  Demand side daily NYMEX, London, China oil gas, fuels  commodity price mechanism, on US Oil & Gas Journal 1983, circulating to 80 countries,  tracking forecast last 20 years daily emerging bull/bear market trend.and energy crisis.:
A. Proactive structural demand side market price mechanism simulation: US, China, global major consumer countries monetary , economic, fiscal policy, WTO policy impactt on inflation, interest rate, currency, seasonal summer driving , winter heating oil demand and interest rate , economic stimulus impact on consumer, business demand , currencies, supply, inventory, and market speculation, technical charting impact on NYMEX, London, China gasoline, heating oil, gas ,crude oil daily prices
B. Application to billion dollar Integrated  oil  upstream/downstream supply demand chain and TQM cost reductions and identification of areas for strategic operations improvement Global supply, demand simulation forecast, seasonal consumer, business demand, inflation, currency impact on last 20 years oil, energy ( crude oil, gasoline, gas oil, naphtha, natural gas, petrochemical feedstock,  futures prices,Do not miss this proactive strategic investment , trillion dollar long short hedging strategy workshops series by OSA  interest  rates, currency, stock, bond, derivatives, housing, commodities, oil asset pricing and risks valuation markets fundamentals price mechanism, accurately warned on Wall Street Journal Market beat Blog Sept.19, 2007 that US housing price slump continue into summer 2008 drag economy into inflationary recession and US, global stock indices bear market correction, dollar to new low and oil above 115-145, gold break 1000, record , metal, feed grain prices, Bear Stearn 30 billion dollar MBS hedge fund failure  despite Fed rate cuts  and stimulus package He also warned top QFII management on Peking Univ June 2007 International Financial Engineering Conference that China overheated housing, stock market wealth gain resulted inflation over 8.7 % will lead to China Peoples Bank credit tightening to remove excessive liquidity, housing, stock markets follow US housing price slump, recession, bear market correction, with Shanghai A testing 2550-2750- through summer 2008  
  full day Proactive Strategic Supply chain cost reduction workshops
5 Day Oil, currency, metal  Pricing and  Strategic Investment Workshop : Global Interest rate, Dollar, Oil, Gold, Metals Stock Indices,  and Housing,  Stocks  Bubbles
 Comment by Warren Huang -Yahoo Finance Wall Street Journal Market Beat  July 18, 2008  1602pm

My demand side oil price simulation tracking last 25 year daily oil price since 1980 ( patented published on US Oil & Gas Journal Journal 1983 Itpredicte since last Sept on Wall Street Journal Market beat and energy blog that excessive rate cut drag dollar lower and economic rebate check driving up summer gasoline peak demand push oil price to 145 on July 4, ( while most analyst specualte oil price will go to 150- 200 , I insisted oil price stay below 146 ) and consolidate into 120- 146 after July till labor day after rebate check is about to run out and plunge into 105- 125 after labor day till early Nov. off peak season,  And rebound to 110- 135 in winter heating oil peak demand season Nov. Feb 2009
Oil and commodity price bubble will burst entering bear market correction oil price stay below 100 ) only we facing recession late this year-to early next year. after Fed rate hike,
Any economic stimulus to support the housing markets and rebate check to boost consumer, business demand will be used by market speculators to drive oil back to 130- 145.
detail on www.osawh.com/oilpetpri.htm  www.osawh.com/Globaloiln.htm
Comment by Warren Huang -Wall Street Journal Market Beat  June  29, 2008  1202pm and  www.osaglobalstrategicmanagement.com/blog1  

According to my demand side oil price simulation of last 30 years daily oil price, the speculative forces, helped by economic stimulus rebate check, will drive oil price to 145 on this July 4 th weekend.Oil price will be settle down lower to 120- 140 after these rebate checks run out in Aug.and to 100- 120 after labor day holiday
details on www.osawh.com/oilpetpri.html www.osawh.com/Globaloiln.htm

Dr. Warren Huang (黃華南博士) Pioneer, proactive structural dynamic global inflation, macro economy, daily financial markets interest rates, currency, stock, bond, derivatives, housing, commodities, oil asset pricing and risks valuation markets fundamentals price mechanism, accurately warned on Wall Street Journal Market beat Blog Sept.19, 2007 and Mar 5, 2008 masterclass  workshop China fund world 2008, Pudong, China  to Goldman Sach managing directors JPM, UBS and 150 China QDII/QFII fund managers that  US Fed aggressive rate cuts drag dollar to 1.53-1.65 EURO, 95- 108 Yen, economic stimulus boost consumer spending on gasoline and jet fuel summer, demand, driving gasoline , heating oil to 415, oil price to 121-145, commodity price double, will peak out as US dollar rebound follow Fed ending rate cuts cycle , can not stop sub-prime crisis spreading, regional  housing price slump 30-50 %  and credit crisis, crunch crisis continue through  2008 drag economy into 2009 double dip  inflationary recession resulted trillion housing and stock market loss and US, global stock indices bear market 30- 50 % , Dow Jones test 10000- 11000, NASDAQ PLUNGE 30 % testing 2000-2200 and high fliers (GOOG, PTR, AAPL) , IT, retail stocks facing 30-50 % correction,    with banking, finance, housing share price plunge 50- 70 %, dollar making to new low,   commodity prices doubled, widening bond , CDS spread and failure in MBS/CDO, Bear Stearn 30 billion dollar MBS hedge fund and government steps rescue Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac bail out,  despite Fed rate cuts . He also warned top global QFII management on Peking Univ June 2007 International Financial Engineering Conference that China overheated housing, stock market wealth gain resulted inflation over 8.7 % will lead to China Peoples Bank credit tightening to remove excessive liquidity, Banking housing, stock markets follow US housing price slump, recession, bear market correction, with Shanghai A testing  2550 till summer 2008, stamp tax for stock trading cut to 1 % provide initial support to 3000 level, and plunged again to 2550-  2750  after Dow Jones plunged to 11000,commodities, oil asset pricing and risks valuation markets fundamentals price mechanism,  ,capital on the emerging bull, bear market trend through optimal long- short strategic asset allocation. portfolio management, He recommended US mutual fund (  US oil fund follow oil , gas price doubled Ultra short financial,  up 110 %, Ultra short QQQ ( Nasdaq ) UP 40 %. , and  recommended ETF: US natural gas up  100  % as natural gas soared from 6 to 12., and Japan crude oil fund up 110, as oil price doubled from 70 to 147. and Oppenheimer Commodities  up 90 % as, corn, soybean price doubled  
. He predicted 2005 on China Oil Markets Conference workshop, Beijin to multinational oil, QFII CEO, executives that oil prices soared to 80 , due to increasing demand from China/US   global housing, auto, construction materials and transportation, dragged by  US housing market weakness, oil price will be supported by final leg of dollar plunge against Yen, and inflation, seasonal demand in gasoline, heating oil and global housing, constructional materials, metals energy consumption. it peaking out summer gasoline demand at  80,

Comment by Warren Huang Wall Street Journal Market Beat- June 19, 2008 at 2:51 pm

From my tracking , proactive structural simulation last 30 year US/global housing price bubbles fundamental mechanism are driven by demand side housing, equities, wealth and monetary, policy. Housing price slump is due to soaring prices beyond affordability and investment incentive in poor underlying fundamental, ( soaring job cuts, unsold inventory, plunging consumer confidence). current housing price have to plunge t ( down 50 %) to more attractive affordable, as it did in all housing bubble burst, Even rate cuts, stimulus package will not change the fundamental supply demand market forces.
Also my 30 years demand side oil price and global currency price mechanism research indicates, any rate cuts, t stimulate consumer, business demand will make dollar less
attractive due to interest spread, it will drive up demand for oil, commodities, and led to higher inflation, the dollar will then goes up, as Fed stop rate cuts, swing to rate hikes to fight inflation to cut demand, will drive oil price down, This process take a few month to react. Recent speculation on China raise fuel oil price 18 % to cut China demand, drag oil price down is misleading, we are faing oil price profit taking, not respond to China fuel price raise ( I told many times on China oil market conference to global multinational COE in Beijin since 2005.
Do not blame OPEC for oil price manipulating, soaring oil price are resulted from market speculators use continued global demand, weak dollar to excessive valuation.
and downstream refinery tight capacity as lectures many OPEC petroleum ministers and multinational oil CEO.
details on www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm  www.osawh.com/globaloiln.htm www.osawh.com/wealthm.html www.osawh.com/currency.html

Comment by Warren Huang -Wall Street Journal Market Beat June 11, 2008 at 3:21 pm

According to my tracking last 20 years daily Euro, Yen and oil price movement, oil price is more snesitive to euro lately, due to EURO ECB more aggressive fighting soaring 3.2 % inflation, while Japan inflation stay relative flat at 1.5 %, no immediate threat and interest rate relative constant at 1.5 %
Todya EURO rebound from 1.54 to 1.556 push oil price higher, Oil will follow EURO move to 1.575 retest 139.

Comment by Warren Huang -Wall Street Journal Market Beat June 6, 2008 at 3:21 pm

No one can manipulate any global commodity price, they are determined by market supply , demand price mechanism.
I pioneered this price mechanism on US Oil & Gas Journal 1983, predicted last 30 years daily oil, energu, commodities price and during energy crisis.
I predicted to hundreds top global multinational oil CEO, VP on China Oil, Gas market conference, Beijing, Feb, Nov. 2005 that oil price soared from 50 to 80, when every one predicted oil price slump.
and again last Sept on the blog that Fed rate cuts will drag dollar lower, push oil price to 110 while  Benanke and economist predicted oil price slump in recession. I predicted to 150 investment bank CEO, fund managers on China fund world conference March 5, 2008, Pudong, Shanghai and on this blog early this year that economic stimulus will push oil price to 135 , gold price to 1000 in this summer peak demand, and warn bear market trap on market analyst to rally stock price. It is obvious, market traders, investment banker, are not manipulate the oil, they use central banks rate cuts, and tax rebates, dollar weakness to speculate the oil price bubble on oil price slump
Dow Jones soared 220 point yesterday on oil price slump and jobless claim and plunged 230 point on oil price spike and unemployment data ignoring my warning on this blog that FEd rate cuts, stimulus package will not stop housing price slump, mortgage, credit crisis, , mounting job cuts drag economic into recession, US and global stock market bear market correction, Dow must test 11000- 12000, banking, finance, retail, stocks plunge 50- 70 %, it will give up all its recent gain in bottom fishing rebound .
details on www.osawh.com/Globaloiln.htm www.osawh.com/commody.html www.osawh.com/fund2008.htm www.osawh.com/goldf.html

Comment by Warren Huang -Wall Street Journal Market Beat May 22, 2008   1:46pm  on Oil, Commodity Bubble?

Based on my 30 years research and implementation of proactive structural demand side oil, commodities prices bubble burst mechanism simulation, the causes, onset and early warning of oil, commodities prices bubble are very similar to all other assets ( housing, equities )prices bubble. They all generated by global central banks excessive money supply, tax cuts led to 5 years global ( not just China and India) economic expansion resulted excessive consumer, business demand for oil downstream housing, auto, metal, commodities, and food. You must recall that 1980, 1990, 2000 economic boom and bust recession resulted oil, commodities bubble burst with price plunge 50- 70 % . It will repeat again this time if US recession spread to global recession. you can not use equities price P/E ratio ( even the ratio does not work for current banking finance stock price plunged with PE ratio )approach to pricing oil, oil, commodities, It is meaning less for income, earning for oil, commodities price. You should have global demand ( which are function of central bank money supply and interest rates) and dollar exchange rate.
SO it is clearly now why oil , commodities price bubbles follow housing bubble soared 400 % during the last 5 year.
details on www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm www.osawh.com/Globaloiln.htm www.osawh.com/oilpripet.html www.osawh.com/centmaf.html www.osawh.com/commody.html

Comment by Warren Huang -Wall Street Journal Market Beat May2, 2008  6;55pm 

From my proactive structural demand side simulation of the causes, onset, spread, recovery, and early warning of all asset prices bubbles ( oil, commodities, stocks, gold, housing), they share the same irrational behavior. Current asset bubble are created by 5 year global expansion resulted excessive
demand( from US, Asia, to E. and west European, S. American, every one get richer, spend more on housing, travel, auto,food..) do not blame China, India for excuse).
My demand side price mechanism forecast all these bubble years ahead of the the bubble formation to burst. They all from central banks excessive rate cuts, resulted consumer, business demand generated stocks, housing , commodities investment wealth gain, and dollar exchange rates ),Do not speculate oil price5 years from now, We have plenty underground, there is no shortage for 50 years, Oil prices like housing, other asset price bubble will burst after current US summer economic package is over, entering recession, China and India, Asian, and European all facing housing bubble burst, entering recession. Just recall, How NASDAQ shooting from 1000 to 5100,
investor though Hi tech keep going up, Greenspan said high tech increase productivity, avoded inflation, finally he had to raise rate drag Nasdaq plunge,
A year ago, No body thinks housing price will drop, that is why we have subprime problem. So is oil price bubble,
Do not help the speculators make all excuse toe push oil price up.
I predicted 2005 in China that oil price went from 50 to 80 due to global housing market overheating .and predicted again last Sept on this blog that rate cuts will drag dollar lower, drive oil to 115, and early this year warned ,economic package will drive oil to 135. in peak US summer demand. Today oil price peaking out at 135 just before the labor day peak demand. details on www.osawh.com/Globaloiln.htm www.osawh.com/commody.html

Comment by Warren Huang -Wall Street Journal Market Beat May20, 2008  1202pm and  osaglobalstrategicmanagement.com/ blog1 

From my 30 years tracking forecast demand side impact on oil prices, current economic stimulus package and weak dollar, and talk on second half economic recovery are responsible for speculative buy to push oil price to record level, It is not the supply increase crude oil production to cool the oil price.
The trouble is on tight refinery production capacity bottleneck and downstream demand from global housing and travel.   I predicted on this blog early this year, oil will go to 115- 130,
we may see occasional overshooting to 135 in holiday peak demand.
details on www.osawh.com/Globaloiln.htm www.osawh.com/oilpetpri.html www.osawh.coom/centmaf.html www.osawh.com/currency.html 

CComment by Warren Huang -Wall Street Journal Market Beat May17, 2008  1202pm 

From my 30 years tracking demand side oil prices and oil stock price, the reason why oil stock price lag behind oil price are due to oil commodities traders trading, speculating on daily oil supply, demand, dollar news, while oil stock price have to wait till 3 month later how oil prices influence on each company profitr margin with different oil dependence ,product mix, it is easy for 100 % crude oil production company like Russia YUKOs,, soaring oil price lead to higher margin, so is Chinas CEO, (Offshore OIL ) and PetroChina with heavy crude oil mix, stock price soared over 200, while integrated oil like Mobil has both upstrem and downstream, downstream are suffered by soaring oil, feedstock cost facing loss, refining company   facing profit squeeze. All the operating result are 3 month behind due to earning report But only proactive structural simulation of oil price and it impact on oil company earning, stock price, can predict ahead, and cut the time lag. details on www.osawh.com/oilpetpri.html www.osawh.com/Globaloiln.htm www.osawh.com/fund2008.htm

The market is repeating its last August speculative mood, chasing on banking, high tech stocks push Dow to 14200 new high, this time over 13000, trying to break downtrend., despite housing markets slump, soaring oil, commodities prices, job cuts and banking, finance mounting loss in write down.
The market optimism built on shaking ground, betting on housing, banking, high tech sectors rebound, will lead to another trillion dollar loss.
Goldman’s prediction of 200 dollar oil price is against market supply demand fundamental mechanism. Oil price bubble will burst before 200.consumers just can not afford
to pay for that price. We will have long, deep inflationary recession with us, even stimulus package rate cuts will not be able to achieve sustainable recovery this year. We have already seen the worst of dollar weakness at almost the end of current rate cuts cycle, the soaring oil price will push inflation higher, all will give support to US dollar.
Gasoline and heating oil are still the major demand driving force for oil price. It is the spring, summer gasoline demand drive the oil price from 80 to 120.
stronger dollar supported by inflation fighting will drag oil price lower, current oil price spike is expectation of stimulus package boost jet fuel and gasoline demand this summer.
We may see oil price breakout to 130, not much beyond that. details on www.osawh.com/Globaloiln.htm www.osawh.com/oilpetpri.html
www.osawh.coom/currency.html

Predicted by OSA pioneer Comment by Warren Huang Wall Street Journal Market Beat Blog- March 10, 2008 at 10:10 pm

From my pioneering proactive structural demand side oil price mechanism simulation on US Oil & Gas Journal 1983,  circulated  million copies to 80 countries, I accurately predicted oil price from 9 to 100
I predicted 2005 on China Oil Markets Conference workshop, Beijin to multinational oil, QFII CEO, executives that oil prices soared to 80 , due to increasing demand from China/US   global housing, auto, construction materials and transportation, despite dragged by  US housing market weakness, oil price will be supported by second leg of dollar plunge against Yen, and inflation, seasonal demand in gasoline, heating oil and global housing, constructional materials, metals energy consumption. it peaking out last summer gasoline demand at 80, Fed 225 points rate cut, led to Yen plunge to 100-105, and EURO to 1.55 , driving oil price to 90- 115 , supporting winter heating oil demand season begin Oct- Nov , and in cold winter, and boosted spring summer driving peak demand in 2008 through economic stimulus, tax cuts  
 Comment by Warren Huang  Wall Street energy Blog- September 18, 2007 at 2:57 pm

Hedge fund can not run against the fundamental supply , demand of oil upstream and downstream., they suffered trillion dollar loss by betting on the wrong side of investment.
Based on my 40 years experiences with US major oil and China, US oil exploration, production, refining, marketing, investment
I predicted in 2005 on China Oil Market conference that oil price will be soared from 55 to 80 in summer 2006- 2007, due to Soaring China, US, global housing price bubble demand for energy intensive construction material and consumer demand for fuel, gasoline. while refinery facing bottleneck, above 90 % capacity, crude oil amount to 90 % of refinery cost, they are reluctant to produce fuel at current gasoline price, that is why gasoline inventory is low.
It will take time for China alternative energy to play any significant contribution.oil price will have support at 60,even in next year US recession, due to China, and global housing market demandand weak dollar, details can be found on www.osawh.com/oilpetpri.htm

My crude oil price tracking last 20 years and forecasted closely related gasoline demand, price in summer and heating oil demand, prices in winter which tied into consumer, business demand, finally control by monetary policy interest rates, currency.
This relationship forecast on the blog in July that oil price peaking out at 80 in summer 2007, and traded between 60- 80 extended into next year, supported by falling dollar and any rate cuts to stimulated the consumer, business demand.
recent Benanke, Bush statement, in any rate cuts to stimulate the housing demand, lead to oil speculator drive up gasoline, heating oil prices and further supported by dollar plunged from 122 to 115 Yen.details can be found on
 　

 Do not miss again on book his 2007 -2008 5-day US/China macroeconomic control, currency, oil, commodities, bond, stocks futures, derivatives investment strategy workshops

Dr. Huang pioneered proactive, structural oil, energy, downstream products market forces demand and  prices mechanism Operations Simulation Analysis (OSA), patented, published on US Oil& Gas Journal 1983, Hydrocarbon Processing information systems handbook 1991-2005, with millions copies circulated to 78 countries oil executives. He developed, implemented  hundreds simulators while he was senior analyst for US Mobil, AMOCO, Phillips Petroleum headquarters global strategic management and government energy consultant  for Taiwan Chinese Petroleum, China Petrochemical global investment, market pricing strategy and China SINOPEC investment, supply chain, refining strategy
He wrote hundred articles on Taiwan, China daily newspaper, investment journals an
predicted month ahead of the energy crisis, oil prices from 8 to 80 since 1980, and served as lectured to China, Taiwan, US 15 cities 30 million TV, radio, institutional, HNW investors and keynote speaker to hundreds global  Chemical Engineering, oil, OPEC petroleum ministers  conferences, workshop executives workshops

 Global Oil and downstream demand, pricing markets mechanism OSA
 provide that what, why, how and timing of last 20 years emerging market trend of price movement
These oil markets prices mechanism simulators,  integrating macroeconomic inflation, financial economic interest rates, currency and  industrial economic oil prices downstream seasonal demand and prices mechanism, tracking forecast last 20 years daily global oil, downstream prices with average error below 1.5 % , correlation constant over 0.95. 
US Fed  and global  central banks excessive rates and tax cuts  since 2002 leading to China, US, global energy intensive housing , constructional  material and auto industries demand pushed oil prices from 16 to 80 since 2001, predicted by OSA pioneer Dr. Warren Huang in his Beijing oil markets conferences lectures and workshops to hundreds global multinational oil, QFII CEO, senior executives in 2001, 2003, 2005
  
Current supply side oil price forecast, speculate on the OPEC production and global downstream refinery operating capacity, inventory data and unreliable  government demand forecast betting on the wrong direction of price movement.

please send your comment to Dr. Warren Huang  wh3928@yahoo.com