Proactive Structural Dynamic Oil Price Simulation :Oil
price peaking out at
115
, what’s next
?
Fed's 300 points rate cuts and 200 billion cash injection and
economic stimulus package, rate cuts, push oil price to 95-129 in 2008
summer peaking demand 中文
Chinese
The what, why, how and timing of price
mechanism
movement see
www.blogs.wsj.com energy
blog
Proactive Recession Strategy
by OSA pioneer
Dr. Warren Huang wh3928@yahoo.com
5 Day Oil Strategic
Investment Workshop :
Global Interest rate, Dollar, Oil, Gold, Metals Stock Indices, and Housing,
Stocks Bubbles
Dr. Warren Huang
who
pioneered proactive structural demand side oil price mechanism simulation on US
Oil & Gas Journal 1983,
circulated million copies to 80 countries,
accurately predicted oil price from 9 to
110
. He
predicted 2005 on China
Oil Markets Conference workshop, Beijin to multinational
oil, QFII CEO, executives that oil prices
soared to 80 , due to
increasing demand from China/US
global housing, auto, construction materials and transportation,
dragged by US
housing market weakness, oil price will
be supported by final leg of dollar plunge against Yen, and inflation, seasonal demand in
gasoline, heating oil and global housing, constructional materials, metals
energy consumption. it peaking out summer gasoline demand at 80, Fed 300 points rate cuts, economic stimulus package, 200 billion cash injection led to Yen plunge to
95-100-105, and EURO to 1.55-1.66 ,driving up consumer, business demand
and oil price to 90-
125 , supporting spring summer driving peak demand in 2008 through economic stimulus,
tax cuts .
-Wall Street Journal Market Beat
Predicted by OSA
pioneer
Hedge fund can
not run against the fundamental supply , demand of oil upstream and downstream.,
they suffered trillion dollar loss by betting on the wrong side of investment.
Based on my 40 years experiences with US major oil and China, US oil
exploration, production, refining, marketing, investment
I predicted in 2005 on China Oil Market conference that oil price will be soared
from 55 to 80 in summer 2006- 2007, due to Soaring China, US, global housing
price bubble demand for energy intensive construction material and consumer
demand for fuel, gasoline. while refinery facing bottleneck, above 90 %
capacity, crude oil amount to 90 % of refinery cost, they are reluctant to
produce fuel at current gasoline price, that is why gasoline inventory is low.
It will take time for China
alternative energy to play any significant contribution.
oil price will have support at 60,even in next year US recession, due to China,
and global housing market demand
and weak dollar,
details
can be found on
www.osawh.com/oilpetpri.htm
Do not miss again on
book his 2007 -2008
5-day US/China macroeconomic control, currency, oil, commodities, bond,
stocks futures, derivatives investment strategy workshops
Dr. Huang pioneered proactive, structural oil, energy, downstream products market forces demand and prices mechanism
Operations Simulation Analysis
(OSA), patented,
published on US Oil& Gas Journal 1983, Hydrocarbon Processing
information systems handbook 1991-2005, with millions copies
circulated to 78 countries oil
executives.
He developed, implemented
hundreds simulators
while he was senior analyst for US Mobil, AMOCO, Phillips Petroleum
headquarters global strategic management and
government energy consultant
for Taiwan Chinese Petroleum, China
Petrochemical global investment, market pricing strategy and China SINOPEC investment,
supply chain, refining strategy
He wrote hundred articles on Taiwan, China daily newspaper, investment journals an
predicted month ahead of the energy crisis, oil prices from 8 to 80 since 1980,
and served as
lectured to China, Taiwan, US
15 cities 30 million TV, radio, institutional, HNW investors and keynote speaker to hundreds global
Chemical Engineering, oil, OPEC petroleum ministers conferences, workshop executives
workshops
Global Oil and downstream
demand, pricing markets mechanism OSA
provide that what, why, how and timing of last 20 years emerging
market trend of price movement
These oil markets prices mechanism simulators,
integrating macroeconomic inflation, financial economic interest rates,
currency and industrial economic oil prices downstream seasonal demand
and prices mechanism, tracking forecast last 20
years daily global oil, downstream prices with average error below 1.5 %
, correlation constant over
0.95.
US Fed and global central banks excessive rates and tax
cuts since 2002 leading to China,
US, global energy intensive housing , constructional material and auto industries demand
pushed oil prices from 16 to 80 since 2001, predicted by OSA pioneer Dr. Warren Huang in his Beijing oil markets conferences lectures and workshops
to hundreds global multinational oil, QFII CEO, senior executives in 2001,
2003, 2005
Current supply side oil price forecast, speculate on the OPEC production and
global downstream refinery operating capacity, inventory data and unreliable
government demand forecast betting on the wrong direction of price movement.
please send your comment to Dr. Warren Huang
wh3928@yahoo.com
The market is repeating its last August speculative mood, chasing on banking, high tech stocks push Dow to 14200 new high, this time over 13000, trying to break downtrend., despite housing markets slump, soaring oil, commodities prices, job cuts and banking, finance mounting loss in write down.
The market optimism built on shaking ground, betting on housing, banking, high tech sectors rebound, will lead to another trillion dollar loss.
Goldman’s prediction of 200 dollar oil price is against market supply demand fundamental mechanism. Oil price bubble will burst before 200.consumers just can not afford
to pay for that price. We will have long, deep inflationary recession with us, even stimulus package rate cuts will not be able to achieve sustainable recovery this year. We have already seen the worst of dollar weakness at almost the end of current rate cuts cycle, the soaring oil price will push inflation higher, all will give support to US dollar.
Gasoline and heating oil are still the major demand driving force for oil price. It is the spring, summer gasoline demand drive the oil price from 80 to 120.
stronger dollar supported by inflation fighting will drag oil price lower, current oil price spike is expectation of stimulus package boost jet fuel and gasoline demand this summer.
We may see oil price breakout to 130, not much beyond that. details on www.osawh.com/Globaloiln.htm www.osawh.com/oilpetpri.html
www.osawh.coom/currency.html