油價創 100 高後何去何從 (English 英文)
    從需求面掌握油價動向先機

 
                油價操作模擬分析創辦人 黃華南博士  wh3928@yahoo.com
 
2007-2008年 五天中美宏觀產業調控對油價利率債券匯率股指能源金屬期貨上市公司股價及衍生工具 價格預測投資避險策略研討會 
 預約
wh3928@yahoo.com

 美國金融能源市場操作模擬分析創辦人黃華南博士獨創前瞻街結構性需求面油價價格機制模擬發表於1983 年美國石油天然氣雜誌 US Oil & Gas Journal 1983,及應用於數十家國企中小企業石油及下游計價採購投資產銷節能排廢發表於1991- 2005年美國石嬅化雜誌高級控制及信息股股管理系統手冊發行八十國家百萬份精確預測1980年來油價8 至近期100 元間 每日起伏 及發揮產銷經營效率 應四十餘國家化工大會及產油國部長大會及中石化舉辦中國石油大會演講
於2005年兩度在
北京石油市場投資大會及台北國際金融大會對數百位跨國石油金融公司總裁主管預測2006-2008油價創80新高後 於九月在美聯儲降息前警告降息將代帶動美元滑落油價創百元新高貴重金屬大宗期貨履創新高但隨美國2008年房地產及經濟進入進一步衰退及汽油燃料油需求回檔反復在80-100 間起伏
 

黃博士將於今年三月六日再度應邀在上海浦東香格里拉飯店對中國基金及財富管理大會舉辦一日以前瞻經營策略掌握中國資金緊縮美國房產泡沫破滅下中國及國際基金 石油大宗期貨及財富管理2008年之新契機與風險研討會
聯繫預約   中國   osawhh@sina.com  美國  wh3928@yahoo.com/舊金山台北上海 He developed, implemented  hundreds simulators while he was senior analyst for US Mobil, AMOCO, Phillips Petroleum headquarters global strategic management and government energy consultant  for Taiwan Chinese Petroleum, China Petrochemical global investment, market pricing strategy and China SINOPEC investment, supply chain, refining , energy conservation, waste minimization strategy
He wrote hundred articles on Taiwan, China daily newspaper, investment journals
an
predicted month ahead of the energy crisis, oil prices from 8 to 80 since 1980, and served as
lectured to China, Taiwan, US 15 cities 30 million TV, radio, institutional, HNW investors and keynote speaker to hundreds global  Chemical Engineering, oil, OPEC petroleum ministers  conferences, workshop executives workshops

Global Oil and downstream demand, pricing markets mechanism OSA
 
provide that what, why, how and timing of last 20 years emerging market trend of price movement

These oil markets prices mechanism simulators,
 integrating macroeconomic inflation, financial economic interest rates, currency and  industrial economic oil prices downstream seasonal demand and prices mechanism, tracking forecast last 20 years daily global oil, downstream prices with average error below 1.5 % , correlation constant over 0.95
US Fed  and global  central banks excessive rates and tax cuts  since 2002 leading to China, US, global energy intensive housing , constructional  material and auto industries demand pushed oil prices from 16 to 80
since 2001, predicted by OSA pioneer Dr. Warren Huang in his Beijing oil markets conferences lectures and workshops to hundreds global multinational oil, QFII CEO, senior executives in 2001, 2003, 2005
 
Current supply side oil price forecast, speculate on the OPEC production and global downstream refinery operating capacity, inventory data and unreliable  government demand forecast betting on the wrong direction of price movement.

please send your comment to Dr. Warren Huang  wh3928@yahoo.com 
 

5 Day oil ,Commodity, Metals  Strategic Investment Workshop : Global Interest rate, Dollar, Oil, Gold, Metals Stock Indices,  and Housing,  Stocks  Bubbles

 Predicted by OSA pioneer Dr. Warren Huang  who pioneered integrated proactive structural demand side oil price and downstream petrochemical, plastics price mechanism and integrated investment, supply chain, energy conservation, waste minimization simulation systems on US Oil & Gas Journal 1983,and published on Hydrocarbon Processing Advanced control and information system handbook 1991-2005  circulated  million copies to 80 countries, accurately predicted oil price from 9 to 100 since 1980 energy crisis. He accurately predicted again  2005-2006  in Beijing China oil market and Taipei global finance conferences and workshops 2006  to Global Multinational Oils, QFII CEO, senior Executives  that oil price will  be maintain at 55- 80 level from 2006 to 2008   due to increasing demand from China/US   global housing, auto, construction materials and transportation, dragged by  US housing market weakness, oil price will be supported by second leg of dollar plunge against Yen, and inflation, seasonal demand in gasoline, heating oil and global housing, constructional materials, metals energy consumption. it peaking out summer gasoline demand at 80, Fed 50 points rate cut, led to Yen plunge to 110-105, and EURO to 1.5 , driving oil price to 90- 100 , supporting winter heating oil demand season begin Oct-  Jan , and  in cold winter,  repeat the pattern next year.
 

 Comment by Warren Huang  Wall Street energy Blog- September 18, 2007 at 2:57 pm

 

Hedge fund can not run against the fundamental supply , demand of oil upstream and downstream., they suffered trillion dollar loss by betting on the wrong side of investment.
Based on my 40 years experiences with US major oil and China, US oil exploration, production, refining, marketing, investment
I predicted in 2005 on China Oil Market conference that oil price will be soared from 55 to 80 in summer 2006- 2007, due to Soaring China, US, global housing price bubble demand for energy intensive construction material and consumer demand for fuel, gasoline. while refinery facing bottleneck, above 90 % capacity, crude oil amount to 90 % of refinery cost, they are reluctant to produce fuel at current gasoline price, that is why gasoline inventory is low.It will take time for China
alternative energy to play any significant contribution.
oil price will have support at 60,even in next year US recession, due to China, and global housing market demand
and weak dollar, details can be found on www.osawh.com/oilpetpri.htm

My crude oil price tracking last 20 years and forecasted closely related gasoline demand, price in summer and heating oil demand, prices in winter which tied into consumer, business demand, finally control by monetary policy interest rates, currency.
This relationship forecast on the blog in July that oil price peaking out at 80 in summer 2007, and traded between 60- 80 extended into next year, supported by falling dollar and any rate cuts to stimulated the consumer, business demand.
recent Benanke, Bush statement, in any rate cuts to stimulate the housing demand, lead to oil speculator drive up gasoline, heating oil prices and further supported by dollar plunged from 122 to 105 Yen, driving oil price to 100 and record metal prices
 

 Do not miss again on book his 2007 -2008 5-day US/China macroeconomic control, currency, oil, commodities, bond, stocks futures, derivatives investment strategy workshops

Dr. Huang pioneered
proactive, structural oil, energy, downstream products market forces demand and  prices mechanism
Operations Simulation Analysis (OSA), patented, published on US Oil& Gas Journal 1983, Hydrocarbon Processing information systems handbook 1991-2005, with millions copies circulated to 78 countries oil executives.
He developed, implemented  hundreds simulators while he was senior analyst for US Mobil, AMOCO, Phillips Petroleum headquarters global strategic management and government energy consultant  for Taiwan Chinese Petroleum, China Petrochemical global investment, market pricing strategy and China SINOPEC investment, supply chain, refining strategy
He wrote hundred articles on Taiwan, China daily newspaper, investment journals
an
predicted month ahead of the energy crisis, oil prices from 8 to 80 since 1980, and served as
lectured to China, Taiwan, US 15 cities 30 million TV, radio, institutional, HNW investors and keynote speaker to hundreds global  Chemical Engineering, oil, OPEC petroleum ministers  conferences, workshop executives workshops

Global Oil and downstream demand, pricing markets mechanism OSA
 
provide that what, why, how and timing of last 20 years emerging market trend of price movement

These oil markets prices mechanism simulators,
 integrating macroeconomic inflation, financial economic interest rates, currency and  industrial economic oil prices downstream seasonal demand and prices mechanism, tracking forecast last 20 years daily global oil, downstream prices with average error below 1.5 % , correlation constant over 0.95
US Fed  and global  central banks excessive rates and tax cuts  since 2002 leading to China, US, global energy intensive housing , constructional  material and auto industries demand pushed oil prices from 16 to 80
since 2001, predicted by OSA pioneer Dr. Warren Huang in his Beijing oil markets conferences lectures and workshops to hundreds global multinational oil, QFII CEO, senior executives in 2001, 2003, 2005
 
Current supply side oil price forecast, speculate on the OPEC production and global downstream refinery operating capacity, inventory data and unreliable  government demand forecast betting on the wrong direction of price movement.

please send your comment to Dr. Warren Huang  wh3928@yahoo.com