We are repeating 2007 this summer, as tax cuts, QE2 and prolonged Libya
turmoil, will push oil prices to 120 and commodity to record,
Oil , commodity price bubble burst coupled with double dip housing
and economic inflationary recession
QE1 in 2008 and current and QE2 excessive money supply and rate cuts led to oil and commodity
prices bubbles boom and bust, and are inflationary while housing prices continue
to slump facing double dip, while economy went into double dip inflationary
recession
Oil
price peaking out at
147
in summer 2008, due to QE1 excessive money supply growth ,and rate cuts,
: repeating oil price plunged from 147
July 2008 pushed CPI inflation to 5.9 %, , bubble burst, as oil price plunged
from 147 to 33 in March 2009, as economy suffered -6.1 % recession.
repeating 2003- 2004 oil price doubled from 19 to 38 ,inflation doubled from 1.2
to 3.1 %, housing bubble start to follow oil prices bubble to form
Fed's 325 points rate cuts
and
stimulus package
and QE1
push oil price to 110- 145 in 2008
summer facing bust, bubble burst and
economic double dip recession in 2009 中文
Chinese
The what, why, how and timing of monetary economic, fiscal policy impact on oil ,
commodity price bubble boom and bust
mechanism movement
Oil prices doubled from 55 in 2007 to 2008 summer of 147 as Fed aggressive
cut rates and money supply soared from 5 % to 10 % during 2007 -2008 in QE1
oil bubble burst in 2009 plunge to 33 , and triple to 90 as money supply growth
excessive 10 % followed by economic recession.
Oil prices doubled in 2010 QE2 , as 600 billion cash injection , designed to
drive up oil and commodities, stock prices by 30 %, drive 10 yr bond rate
down 1 % ( to support CPI from 1.6 % and housing prices ,
actually rate up from 2.4 to 3.6 % money supply growth from 3 to 4.3
%, to push oil price over 100, Continued Lybya and Mideast turmoil with
consumer supported by tax rebate spending and QE2 will drive oil prices to 120
level ( money supply growth will be explode to 5.1 %) in summer peak demand ,
while any peace settlement before the summer will drag
oil prices to 80- 95 level due to China, Asian , ECB, UK credit tightening in
summer peak demand
gold, silver, cotton, corn, soybean, up 30 %- 100
%, repeating 2003 and 2008 while housing prices making new low Jan 2011.
with durable goods order exclude aircraft drop 12 % soaring jobless rate and food, energy inflation will lead to repeat 1980
style economy double inflationary recession
by OSA pioneer
Dr. Warren Huang wh3928@yahoo.com
5
Day strategic investment workshop
:
Global Interest rate, Dollar, Oil, Gold, Metals Stock Indices, and Housing,
Stocks Bubbles
Dr. Warren Huang
who
pioneered proactive structural demand side oil price mechanism simulation on US
Oil & Gas Journal 1983,
circulated million copies to 80 countries, accurately predicted oil
price from 9 to 100 . He
predicted 2005 on China
Oil Markets Conference workshop, Beijin to multinational
oil, QFII CEO, executives that oil prices
soared to 80 , due to
increasing demand from China/US
global housing, auto, construction materials and transportation,
dragged by US
housing market weakness, oil price will
be supported by second leg of dollar plunge against Yen, and inflation, seasonal demand in
gasoline, heating oil and global housing, constructional materials, metals
energy
consumption. it peaking out summer gasoline demand at 80, Fed 325 points
rate cut, led to Yen plunge to 95-105, and EURO to 1.55-1.65 , driving oil price to
110- 130 , supporting
winter heating oil demand season begin Oct- Nov , and in cold winter,
and boosted spring summer driving peak demand in 2008 through economic stimulus,
tax cuts
Predicted by OSA
pioneer
Hedge fund can
not run against the fundamental supply , demand of oil upstream and downstream.,
they suffered trillion dollar loss by betting on the wrong side of investment.
Based on my 40 years experiences with US major oil and China, US oil
exploration, production, refining, marketing, investment
I predicted in 2005 on China Oil Market conference that oil price will be soared
from 55 to 80 in summer 2006- 2007, due to Soaring China, US, global housing
price bubble demand for energy intensive construction material and consumer
demand for fuel, gasoline. while refinery facing bottleneck, above 90 %
capacity, crude oil amount to 90 % of refinery cost, they are reluctant to
produce fuel at current gasoline price, that is why gasoline inventory is low.
It will take time for China
alternative energy to play any significant contribution.
oil price will have support at 60,even in next year US recession, due to China,
and global housing market demand
and weak dollar,
details
can be found on
www.osawh.com/oilpetpri.htm
Do not miss again on
book his 2007 -2008
5-day US/China macroeconomic control, currency, oil, commodities, bond,
stocks futures, derivatives investment strategy workshops
Dr. Huang pioneered proactive, structural oil, energy, downstream products market forces demand and prices mechanism
Operations Simulation Analysis
(OSA), patented,
published on US Oil& Gas Journal 1983, Hydrocarbon Processing
information systems handbook 1991-2005, with millions copies
circulated to 78 countries oil
executives.
He developed, implemented
hundreds simulators
while he was senior analyst for US Mobil, AMOCO, Phillips Petroleum
headquarters global strategic management and
government energy consultant
for Taiwan Chinese Petroleum, China
Petrochemical global investment, market pricing strategy and China SINOPEC investment,
supply chain, refining strategy
He wrote hundred articles on Taiwan, China daily newspaper, investment journals an
predicted month ahead of the energy crisis, oil prices from 8 to 80 since 1980,
and served as
lectured to China, Taiwan, US
15 cities 30 million TV, radio, institutional, HNW investors and keynote speaker to hundreds global
Chemical Engineering, oil, OPEC petroleum ministers conferences, workshop executives
workshops
Global Oil and downstream
demand, pricing markets mechanism OSA
provide that what, why, how and timing of last 20 years emerging
market trend of price movement
These oil markets prices mechanism simulators,
integrating macroeconomic inflation, financial economic interest rates,
currency and industrial economic oil prices downstream seasonal demand
and prices mechanism, tracking forecast last 20
years daily global oil, downstream prices with average error below 1.5 %
, correlation constant over
0.95.
US Fed and global central banks excessive rates and tax
cuts since 2002 leading to China,
US, global energy intensive housing , constructional material and auto industries demand
pushed oil prices from 16 to 80 since 2001, predicted by OSA pioneer Dr. Warren Huang in his Beijing oil markets conferences lectures and workshops
to hundreds global multinational oil, QFII CEO, senior executives in 2001,
2003, 2005
Current supply side oil price forecast, speculate on the OPEC production and
global downstream refinery operating capacity, inventory data and unreliable
government demand forecast betting on the wrong direction of price movement.
please send your comment to Dr. Warren Huang
wh3928@yahoo.com
Oil price peaking out at 146 in 2008, and 103 in 2011 what’s next ?
Fed’s rate cuts and stimulus package and QE1 push oil price to 110- 145 in 2008 summer facing bust, bubble burst and economic double dip recession in 2009
The what, why, how and timing of monetary economic, fiscal policy impact on oil , commodity price bubble boom and bust mechanism movement
Oil prices doubled from 55 in 2007 to 2008 summer of 147 as Fed aggressive cut rates and money supply soared from 5 % to 10 % during 2007 -2008 in QE1 oil bubble burst in 2009 plunge to 33 , and triple to 90 as money supply growth excessive 10 % followed by economic recession.
Oil prices doubled in 2010 QE2 , as 600 billion cash injection , designed to drive up oil and commodities, stock prices by 30 %, drive 10 yr bond rate down 1 % ( to support CPI and housing prices , actually it up from 2.4 to 3.6 % money supply growth from 3 to 4.3 %, to push oil price over 100, gold, silver, cotton, corn, soybean, up 30 %- 100 %, while housing prices making new low Jan 2011. soaring jobless rate and food, energy inflation will face risk repeat 1980 style economy double inflationary recession