home ¤¤¤å (Chinese)
Top Down TWO Master Hands Controlling last 30 years Global Daily Asset Prices and
risks valuation mechanism, Impact on Global Macro Financial, Industrial Economic
Recession and Financial Crisis
and global capital market performance, risks and return
(Operations Simulations Analysis (¢Ý¢á¢Ï)Tracking
monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on asset prices and its feed back macro
econmoics, capital market , monetary policy.
Proactive, Structural Simulation of Global Assets ( Housing, Equities,
Commodities, Metal, Oil) Prices Bubbles Bursts
Mechanism and Market, Credit, Operations Risks Valuation Impact on Global Mortgage, Credit, Financial Crisis and Economy
Recession
Global Assets Prices heading for recession, prices plunge 50
-70 % 2008- 2009 and bear market rebound and asset bubble in summer 2009 in recession recovery
strategic OSA workshops series
Proactive Structural Dynamic Global Behavior
Arbitrage Assets ( Equities, Bond, Commodities, Housing , Derivatives )Prices
Theory (PAPT), Assets Price Bubble Burst Impact on Recession Simulation , Macro Stress Testing Integrating monetary policy,
Macro- Financial economic control into industrial supply, demand, microeconomic price
mechanism
Tracking, Simulate Macro-economic shocks impact on inflation, interest rates, banking, financial Industries systems
microeconomic performance, behavior and Basel II Risks early warning
China Housing Bubble
China
stock Price bubble
US
housing Bubble Credit Crisis
China
Asset Bubble Asian Asset Bubble
Vietnam
Asset Bubble
Oil prices Commodity price
gold,
metal price
stock price
Proactive, Structural, Dynamic
Global and China Capital Market Asset
Prices Modeling,( PCAPM ) Bubbles Early Warning Operations Simulation Analysis
(OSA)¡@of Monetary
Economic, Fiscal, WTO Policy, rate hikes impact on, Capital Markets Asset Bubbles formation,
growth, burst, recovery, early
warning Structural Dynamic Housing,
Mortgage, MBS, CDO asset Prices Mechanism
Simulation,
Market Forces Optimal Dynamic Asset allocation , tracking, forecasts
( book executives workshops series
) By Dr. Warren Huang, Pioneer of OSA global strategic management
Global oil, commodities, housing price bubbles
burst following global stock 50 % correction resulted global credit
financial, credit crisis, economic recession
Comment to Yahoo Finance July 5 on commodity indices , the causes,
or effect?
In my 30 years proactive
structural simulation of the causes, onset, recovery and early
warning of last 30 years global energy, asset prices bubbles bursts,
tracking simulate monetary economic, fiscal policy impact on
daily global macro economy, interest rate, daily currency,
stocks, commodities , housing price indices These commodities,
energy indices are in a vicious cycle of both the cause and effect
of its prices bubble. These demand side simulators indicate that the
real causes for the price bubble originated from central banks
excessive rate cuts, economic stimulus, drag the dollar lower, the
speculators use these demand side price mechanism to drive the
prices and indices higher, with GSCI up 80 %, energy index up 106 %,
petroleum index up 114 %.
I warned on Wall Street Journal market beat and energy blog since
last Sept that Fed aggressive rate cuts will not stop housing
market slump resulted recession into summer 2008, but only drag
dollar lower, lead to doubling of oil, commodities prices in summer
2008. I accurately predicted o market beat blog May 20, that oil
price will challenge 145 on July 4 th due to rebate check driven
consumer demand in peak hoilday fuel demand.
detaisl con be found on
www.osawh.com/GCapbj.html
www.osawh.com/centmaf.html
www.osawh.coom/Globaloiln.htm
www.osawh.com/commodity.html
www.osawh.com/OSAcom1.html
The only and most reliable
proactive structural dynamic deterministic decision simulators tracking, forecasts
years, months
ahead last 20 years global macro economic, financial crisis, industrial supply,
demand, microeconomics equities, real estate, bond , commodities assets prices bubble, and daily
capital market investors behavior asset prices mechanism avoided trillion dollar market loss due to current
probabilistic models risk free interest rate based capital market asset prices and risks models ( CAPM
), presented to 24 US, European, China, Taiwan , Asian central bank governors,
financial risks and wealth management, derivatives prices hedging
conferences :,to hundreds global top investment banker, fund managers in China
Fund Fund World 2008, Pudong, Shanghai March 5, 2008
osawhh@sina.com
wh3928@yahoo.como San Francisco, USA)
-Wall Street Journal Market Beat
-Wall Street Journal Market Beat
-
Reading: The Next Bubble Wall
Street Journal Market beat Blog
I warned on Wall
Street Journal Blogs before market speculation on Fed rate cut, that any rate
cut will repeat 1998 and 1989 , just delay the already serious housing bubble
burst, will be followed by deeper recession.
Fed 50 point cut on top of Dow Jones stock index near its peak, oil,
commodities prices at its all time high this inflationary pressure situation
is much worse than 1998, 1989, with 7 trillion dollar housing
price gain wealth
speculating in housing and stock market,
it will be very tough for Fed to cool it off, it will blow the bubble bigger,
as coastal area high end housing prices soared 40- 150 % in July. even
Greenspan agree that this house bubble is tough for any central banks
to
manage, China raise 5 time rates, 7 times bank deposit ratio, still fail to
contain the soaring housing and stock price bubble.
both Benanke and market are facing turbulent period ahead.
details can be found onwww.osawh.com/centmaf.html
Comment by Warren
Huang - September 24, 2007 at
11:16 am
Where¡¦s
the next investment bubble? It could be emerging markets and oil,
according to Justin Lahart and Joanna Slater, writing in today¡¦s Wall Street
Journal. ¡§Stocks in emerging markets, long less costly than their
developed-market counterparts, are becoming pricier,¡¨ they
write. ¡§At the end of last month, the stocks that make up the MSCI
Emerging Markets index were trading at 17 times their earnings for the prior
12 months.¡¨
Jeff Bailey of the New York Times
reports on Kate Hanni, who was stranded on a flight and has become an
air travel activist. ¡§A successful real estate agent, occasional rock ¡¦n¡¦ roll
singer and mother of two, Ms. Hanni, 47, essentially put her life on hold to
take on the airlines, leaning on her husband to earn more and spend more time
looking after their children so she could battle the lobbying might of the
airlines,¡¨ he
writes.
Andy Mukherjee, writing in Bloomberg News, says the Fed¡¦s rate cut
was the last thing the Far East wanted. ¡§To most Asian policy makers, the
larger-than-expected cut this week in the U.S. Federal Reserve¡¦s target for
overnight interest rates is just the return of an all-too-familiar headache:
unwanted liquidity,¡¨ he
writes.
Dr. Huang predicted on June
Peking University INternational Financial Engineergin RIsk Management conference
to hundred top global investment banks, RMBS, CDO hedge fund managers that US
housing bubble burst, facing default crisis, July 2007 oil price soared to 80, Dow Jones plunged to12600 and global stocks plunged 20 %
Dr. Huang accurately
predicted on this web page since June 2007 and lecture to Peking
University , China int'l financial
engineering risk management conference that US and global housing bubbles
bubble burst, billions dollar loan mortgage
and hedging fund default betting on the wrong side of interest rates
resulted global stock indices are extremely overpriced,
will
follow US Dow Jones, NASDAQ for 10- 20 % correction due to soaring oil, metal
prices, inflation and continue rate hikes
into 2007 slowdown, housing bubbles sub-prime and jumbo mortgage
credit crunch, default risks will give up all 2006 gain
in current correction, US money supply growth already doubled to 6.2 %
from last year 3.5%, due to housing, stock market
wealth gain, recent US Fed 0.5 % discount rate cut and ECB pumped
400 billion dollar into the banking systems will further
inflate the stocks, housing, oil, commodities asset bubble and highly
inflationary and continue into second
stage correction with US dollar plunge( give up all 2006 gain)
Due to current Capital Market Asset Prices Models (CAPM ) based on statistical
probability expected return estimate and risk premium fail to predict dynamic
market forces impact on asset prices, which lead to global central banks,
economist, financial and industrial market analysts over-optimistic over yearend
and 2005 US job creation, consumer, business demand, global economic growth and
IT demand, underestimate its impact on oil, metal prices and inflation, ignoring Dr. Warren Huang structural dynamic capital
markets asset demand, prices market forces mechanism accurately predicts
month ahead last 20 years global capital markets asset prices in financial
crisis, He warned to 24 global central
banks governors conferences 1999 on IT asset bubble bursts and again to Singapore, Shanghai Euro-events
s Singapore
http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/
photos 1,
2,
3
lecture ppt
, Shanghai, Beijin Nov. Asian/China
Finance, Capital Markets conferences,
www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm2003
picture
2lectures on
Asian/China Finance, Capital Market Conferences, Nov. 2003 to 2000 Asian central
banks, QFII, banking, fund managers, and
www.osawh.com website
and
thousands workshops underestimated again
on the impact of US dollar depreciation, excessive rate, tax cuts resulted
soaring consumer housing, auto, business demand, soaring oil, commodities,
metals asset prices bubble reaching 23 year high ( are not transitory and inflation. facing credit
tightening, rate hikes, repeating 2000, doing too little too late again
Global central banks and Bear Stearn , HSBC, Goldman and other financial,
mortgage analyst ignoring Dr. Huang's earning again, underestimated oil,
commodities , housing, equities asset bubble impact on inflation, expecting rake
cut resulted betting on the wrong side of interest rates, bond yield drag 10 yr
bond yield to 4.4 % (while Dr. Huang predicting 5.25 %) and housing price,
resulted billion dolars mortgage loan default and mortgage bond hedge fund
bankruptcy
Two master hands controlling daily global capital market, asset
prices, bubble bursts risks valuation mechanism by proactive structural
dynamic Operations Simulation Analysis
You will find out all the answers in Dr. Warren Huang's speech
prediction on Global capital market asset prices, risk simulation in Beijin for
Peking University's global finance confernce on corporate finance and governance May 28-29,2002 and
the www.osawh.com webpages
Lectures/Workshops for Beijin
University business and finance center organized Global Finance, Corporate Governance
conference May 28,2002 and to Guanhua school of management faculty and graduates for
EMBA, CFA, business, financial research center and other in-house workshops by
appointment
Dr. Warren Huang, Founder OSA
Global Investing/ Int'l Operations Analysis
website: www.osawh.com email wh3928@yahoo.com
presented to Global Capital Market Asset Prices Simulation
9:00 AM- 10:30 AM May 28, 2002, Global Finance Conference
at Fragrance Hill Hotel, Beijin sponsored by Peking University 2:00 PM-5:PM, May 29 Guanhua
School of Business, Business and Finance Research Center Beijin,
Abstract
This work is part of author's 30 years global investment strategic risk management
dynamics OSA (Operations Simulation Analysis) experience. Which have been developed,
implemented out of last 25 years global economic and daily financial markets stable, under
stress crisis , bubble bursts data. These deterministic, state variable, artificial
intelligence neural net based simulators have been tracking, predicted global central bank
monetary , economic, fiscal policy impact on last 25 years global inflation, major
economic indicators, interest rates, currency, stocks, (right master hand) bond,
commodities futures and derivatives, housing properties old and new economy oils, IT
upstream/ downstream 20 industrial demand, prices associated macro economics imbalance
bubble bursts , 20 industrial sectors 5000 products supply, demand, commodity prices, old and new economy
corporate earning, stock prices(left master hands), trillion dollar financial markets
trading loses, properties markets nonperformance loan, defaults. Predicted the root
causes, onset, recovery of 1980, 1990 energy crisis, economic recession, 1987 stock
markets crash, 1992 European currency, 1997-98 Asian , Russia, South American, LTCM
financial crisis and current recession and recovery, market crash Wall street , stock
prices plunge , loan default risks with average error below 1.5 %,correlation constant
above 0.95 (detailed can be found on www.osawh.com
=============================================================================
Global Capital Market Asset
Prices, Bubbles Bursts Simulation, Early Warning Application to Global Economic
, capital markets outlooks, risks and return In-House Workshops
===============================================================
| ¡@ |
¡P A.
US, Asian, European Economic Recovery, Capital Market Asset Prices
Outlook, Risks, Return
¡P Asian/Global Monetary, Economic, Fiscal Policy, WTO impact on Economic
Recovery
¡PAsian/Global Monetary, Economic, Fiscal Policy, WTO Impact Asian Capital
Markets return and risks:
Greater China, Asian/ASEAN interest rates, Debt Capital Market Forecasts
¡PGreater China Equity Capital markets prices, asset bubble, wealth
management Forecasts
¡PGreater China, Properties Markets demand, prices asset bubble, wealth
management forecasts
Strategic pre/post Mergers & Acquisitions performance, stock prices,
investment strategy
¡P Assets ( Auto, credit cards ) and Mortgage Backed Asset Securitisation
prices, defaults risks simulation
¡P Structural financial engineering, trading operations simulation,
Credit Derivatives, Hedging risks strategy
Privatization and IPO performance, stock pricing strategy
¡P Credit Derivatives pricing and defaults hedging
¡P Asian, Asian countries daily currency markets pricing mechanism,
operations simulation, risks hedging
¡P Structured Financial engineering products for risk hedging
¡P Strategic Corporate Governance financial systems monitoring maximize
profits and transparency
¡P Securities, Banking, Insurance market regulation, supervision early
warning system
¡P The root causes, onset, spread, recovery, early warning of global
financial, currency , asset bubble and nonperformance loan crisis early
warning for risk management management
¡P QFII/DFII, IPO and ADR, global equities markets listing pricing
simulation, forecasts |
Global Rate Hikes Impact , Asset
Prices, Bubble Simulation, Early Warning OSA strategic investment/supply
chain, Basel II risk control workshops
Shanghai Sept. 14-18,
Taipei Sept 21- 23, Singapore Sept 25-27, Kuala Lumpur Sept 29-30 ,
email
osawhh@citiz.net
for in-house workshops reservation
(covered thousands lectures, 46 countries capital cities 30
million government, banking, finance corporate CEO, CFO, fund managers, senior
executives investors since 1983 by
80 )
Speaker, Dr. Warren Huang, Pioneer, Global leader, scholar
in Global Strategic Investment , Risks Management
Pioneer, two maaster hands controlling global economy, capital market asset
prices, crisis, bubble early warning
The causes (formation )of Asset
Bubbles: Monetary policy, interest rate, currency impact on asset prices
Thousands structural dynamic deterministic CAPM simulators tracking, simulate excessive monetary, economic, fiscal policy
( interest rate and tax cuts) and WTO trade policy, DFI hot money, stimulate
excessive consumer, business demand resulted last 20 year global soaring asset demand, prices
and equities, properties wealth effect (increased spending, demand due to
unrealized asset value gain) led to fictitious demand, over
capacity, inventory, investment , debt )and excessive US dollar depreciation (50
% again EURO) led to soaring oil, commodities , asset prices bubbles (
equities and housing prices doubled) resulted
asset ( properties, equities wealth
effect, energy, IT , auto, steel) upward price spiral, inflationary pressure and
associated financial accounting misreporting scandals.
Asset Bubbles Bursts:
US housing wealth tripled 50
15 trillion since 1996, the bubble inflated by excessive rate and tax cuts will
leading to bubble burst next year , if without series rate hike to deflate the
bubble before then.
US
currency depreciation further feeding the raw material, commodities price bubble
( like current situation, oil, metal, cotton, soybean futures prices doubled,
Chicago commodities index reaching 19 year high of 270) commodities and
inflation, forcing central banks tightening credits ( Dr. Warren Huang
accurately predicted on Nov. 5, 2003 Euro-events Asian Finance, Capital Market
conference that US Fed will have to raise interest rate hike before May
2004 cut assets
demand and prices, excessive business, consumer credit default ( Greenspan
announced Jan 2004 warned about asset bubbles and need for rate hike
Dr. Huang accurately predicted Nov. 1998 in Rome ECB conference on post EURO
banking, finance integration strategy and May 1999 China central bank governor
Asian central banks governors conference that Oil and IT bubble burst will
led US Fed to series rate hike June , 1999 resulted billion
dollars inventory costs and corporate profit, stock prices plunge 50- 90 %,
massive job cuts, led to asset bubble burst, trillion dollar equities,
properties market loss, NPL loan and wealth loss.
Post Bubble recovery :
central banks rate cuts, increased money market money injection, public
construction, tax cuts, investment credit to stimulate consumer, business
spending, and creating job, generating properties, equities wealth effect
to increase fictitious demand
Asset bubbles
and corporate scandals early warning
OSA: Dr. Warren Huang
pioneering
two master hands controlling, forecasts 3 to 6 months ahead the causes, onset, burst, recovery , early warning
of last 20 years global economy, capital market asset bubble, prices, wealth effect by thousands structural,
dynamics simulator tracking , forecasts accurately the causes, formation,
inflation, deflation, burst, recovery of last 20 years US, European, China,
Taiwan, Asian asset ( properties, equities wealth effect, energy, IT )bubbles and
early warning for Asset wealth effect bubble burst resulted trillion dollar
market loss, Nonperformance Debt,
Equities, Properties Operations Simulations Analysis, Default Risks Simulation, Prevention,
Corporate Governance
Accounting Scandals Early Warning
Operations Simulation Analysis of monetary, economic, fiscal, WTO policy impact
on global economy, capital markets asset prices, bubbles, early warning, tracking
the causes, onset, recovery, early warning of asset bubbles
presented to 24 global central bank governors, financial risks management, OPEC
Petroleum Ministers conferences since 1988
20 years daily global capital markets, asset prices, wealth management bubble
early warning workshops tracking
Book Dr. Warren Huang's China/US credit tightening
impact on global recovery, capital market asset prices, risk hedging 2004 second half
global investment strategy workshops ( June Taipei, Shanghai, Beijin,
Hong Kong tour )getting ahead of the emerging trend, capitalize on China , US rate hike impact on global economy and capital markets, while
minimize credit, markets, operational risks.osawhh@citiz.net
Dr. Warren Huang lectured
San Francisco
Nexusdirect.net Huaxin securities
Silicon Valley investors
workshop on
China/US rate hike,
soaring oil prices impact on
2004 second half
global asset allocation, investment strategy, May 15, 2004 at World Journal
daily news center,
predicted, recommended accurately buy China Unicom, CNOOC ADR shares and
US Silicon Valley high tech, biotech, as Nasdaq plunge below 1875, The Nasdaq
did plunged to 1865 May 17, Monday, investors bought these share at their
bottom, enjoyed 20 % profit
.
======Dr. Warren Huang North American China-US TV radio
interview, investment seminar Lecture =====
Dr. Huang had half hour interview by Silicon Valley Financial TV, Radio station
to speak on China/US credit tightening impact on economy and high tech/biotech
corporate performance, stock prices, Global ADR asset allocation and risk
management. accurately predicted Dow broke 10,000, Nasdaq broke 1900 to 1850,
recommended to buy CHina ADR, US high tech share completed 30- 50 % correction,
downgrade India high tech share. US Nasdaq plunged to 1875, May 10, India stocks
plunged 12 % May 17
Global Chinese Finance Forum San Francisco
Silicon Valley High Tech/Biotech Investment
Seminar 2004
An excellent opportunity to meet with Dr. Warren Huang to discuss ¡§Market Trend
and Outlook for Chinese Theme Stocks in US¡¨ and CEOs from five growing public
companies to learn their current projects and growth potentials.
Date: May 8, 2004 (Saturday)
Time: 9:30-3:10pm Venue: Crown Plaza
Hotel, 777 Bellew Drive, Milpitas Format: Presentation
in Chinese and English, Booths, Q&A, Lunch
=China stocks, bond, commodity, metals, mutual fund investment strategy,
bubbles warning workshops== , reserve
osawhh@citiz.net
When you have Dr. Huang's two OSA master hands you are in good hands
for global
central banks macro-economic control , prices stability and capital market
prices simulation, forecasts
, value investing strategy, wealth management,
risk hedging
That's what he has been
lecture to 24 global central bank governors, wealth
management, financial market risk management conferences and
millions global
central banks, banking, finance, corporate CEO, executives on this website
since 1998 , over 30 million China,
Taiwan, Asian, US , ASEAN, Europ- ean
executives, investors on TV, radio programs and thousands workshops since 1985
and again in 2003 to Euro-events Singapore
http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/ with excellent feedback
photos 1,
2,
3
lecture ppt
, Shanghai, Beijin Nov. Asian/China
Finance, Capital Markets conferences, www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm2003
he was excellently received
picture
2 and
to
China economists meeting Fudan University,
Shanghai , Dec. over 2000 QFII/QDII executives,
identify month ahead, investment
opportunities in China ADR Hong Kong H shares, China A shares and early warning
for asset bubbles in commodities prices reaching 19 year peak, will drive US CPI
to 2.6 %, core inflation to 1.7 % in the summer , overoptimistic over US
economic recovery and job creation, inflation outlook serious housing bubble
will lead to rate hike, despite high unemployment in the election year and global IT and
blue chips banking shares
facing and correction 2004,
Dow will be traded 9750- 10500, Nasdaq 1900- 2090 , Taiwan index
6000- 7000, Henseng 12500- 14000, Nikkei 10000- 11500, China credit tightening continue.
Shanghai A 1600- 1750, Shenzhen 3500- 4100, Euro : 1.18- 1.29 , Yen 105- 112
==Global Capital Market Asset Bubble, Prices, Wealth Effect Mechanism Operations
Simulation Analysis Models =
========
Special Strategic Wealth
Management conference/workshops
Announcement ===================
Strategic Wealth Management Pioneer Dr.
Warren Huang will offer keynote speech and half day workshop for Wealth Management Conference: March.
23-35, 2004, Grand Hyatt, Singapore. He will speak on
Global strategic
wealth management , asset allocation, and risk hedging , asset prices, wealth
effect bubble early warning, introducing thousands
strategic investment simulators predicted 3 month ahead on global
financial crisis, asset, wealth bubble burst, avoided trillion dollar market,
wealth loss for 30 million China, Taiwan, Asian, US, European investors since
1985
He will offer in-house strategic wealth management workshops for Beijin,
Shanghai, Hong, Kong, Taipei, Singapore QFII, QDII, VIP investors, traders , banking,
insurance CEO, executives
during Feb- March
reserve
by
osawhh@citiz.net
/wh3928@yahoo.com
first time shown on this website
the most reliable global stock indices , currency OSA simulation charts
OSA Simulation Charts tracking forecasts 1-3 month
ahead monetary policy on last 20 years daily
A. Consumer spending, Fed Fund rate, Dollar exchange rate impact on Dow Jones Index
B. Japan money supply growth, Yen exchange rate, Dow Jones impact on Tokyo Nikkei index
C. EU money supply growth, EURO exchange rate, Dow Jones impact on German DAX index
D. Hong Kong money supply growth, interbank rate, Dow Jones impact on Henseng index have
E. US and EURO trade
deficit/surplus, interest rate spread impact on EURO exchange rate
F. US and Japan trade deficit/surplus, interest rate spread impact on
YEN exchange rate
Hundred
thousands integrated, global structural, dynamics, deterministic proprietary model
simulators been developed, implemented supporting the following goal,
mission, performance oriented outsourcing strategic centers corporate/
memberships/
workshops
tailored to global government, enterprises, banking, finances enterprises board members, think tank
and executives in integrating into the global markets decision needs: presented by Dr. Warren
Huang to 20 Global central bank governors conferences 1999- 2002 and Global
Finance Conference on Global Corporate Governance at Peking University , May 29
2002, Beijin and Asian Finance, Business Forum, on Asset Backed Securitization
conference, Kula Lumpur, Sept. 30, 2002
=========
Shanghai Conference/in-house workshops Announcement ==============
Dr. Warren Huang will speak to Shanghai Finance and Economic University
China Finance for sustainable growth Shanghai Oct. 25 on China capital market
asset prices simulation, bubble early warning
Monetary , economic, fiscal policy , foreign investments impact on China
capital market industrial sectors
market forces in market economy,
demand, prices mechanism, profit margin, investment return and risk management
He will offer Shanghai full day in house CEO/CFO financial
managers China
capital market Banking, Real Estate, Construction materials
auto
asset prices, bubble simulation workshops
March ,
2004
====== Singapore Asia Euro-Events Conference/in-house workshops
Announcement =======
Dr. Huang
will speak to Singapore Euro-Events Asian Finance and Capital Market conference
Nov.5
three hundred Asian government regulation, , banking, finance , corporate CEO,
CFO, executives on Monetary, economic, fiscal policy WTO impact on Asian economy
and capital market asset prices, bubble, simulation, risk management
He will offer full day in house CEO/CFO workshops in
Singapore March 26-27, 2004
Other Asian countries Nov. 28- Dec 18 by reservation
osawhh@citiz.net or
wh3928@yahoo.com
==================================================================
Excessive money supply,
fiscal, economic policy lead to 7
year global IT expansion resulted high tech, equities, properties excessive,
fictitious demand asset prices bubble bursts, followed by interest rate hikes,
plunging consumer, business demand, manufacturing
oversupply, plunging profits and stock prices and trillion dollar nonperformance in
Japan, China, Taiwan banking industry, Trillion dollar loss in US, global IT
industry and mounting home and auto loan defaults, credit
card delinquency in Hong Kong, US, Korea, Singapore, Malaysia , lead to huge write-off loss
and to maintain Basle's 's capital ratio.
China Asset management is working on 430 billion , Japan is working on 430 billion bad
loan, Taiwan banks write off 0.3 trillion bad loan last year and 0.2 trillion the first
half this year.
Asset Management bought the bad loan working hard to recover the loan loss through
auction, securitization all facing tough time in current turbulent financial markets.
while the existing banking industry sold the old bad loan to asset management co or write
off the old loan are facing new bad loan.
OSA pioneer
Dr. Warren Huang will organize NPL asset management workshops for global banking industry offer his 30 years experience in
tracking, simulate monetary, economic, fiscal policy tracking , simulate the causes,
onset, recovery of these bad loan and maximize the recovery, providing the pre-warning,
risk hedging to prevention future bad loan happening.
================================================================================
Goal: Provide competitive
nonperformance asset bid/auction pricing to maximize asset return, price recovery at
minimum asset procurement costs and default risks
Mission: Structural dynamic deterministic simulators
developed out of extensive historic information knowledge base, tracking, forecast
monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on macro-economy, financial market prices, debt,
equities, properties asset prices, provide good timing and competitive aution
pricing to minimize procurement costs, market loss, default risks, maximize
asset investment return, sells recovery ratio,
========================================================+=======================
Dr. Huang lectured to Peking
University Global Corporate Governance May 28, 2002 , Beijin, and to Asian Business Forum's Asset
Backed Securitization Conference, Kuala Lumpur, Sept. 30, 2002 He
warned that US and global stocks overheated, facing final stage bottoming
correction in early 2003 to European, Asian central banks, stock
exchanges, banking, securities executives on global trillion dollar nonperformance loan debt,
equities, properties asset prices , credit risk simulation, investment strategy and
Asset Backed Securitization
workshops:
predicting the unpredictable futures to minimize bad loan ,shares buy back procurement , investment costs and credit
defaults risks due to corporate scandal and global economic, cycle, financial crisis integration, interaction impact on
interest, currency, industrial demand, prices, the causes, onset, history , recovery
of of nonperformance asset bubble bursts, default maximize
investment return, auction resell , syndicated loan value recovery,
workshops by thousands proprietary OSA simulation charts supporting daily financial
engineering, structural finance application to Global Capital Markets Asset
Management, Credit defaults risks control on this website
He will offer in-house
Asian Economy and Capital Market Asset Prices, Bubble Simulation,
Forecsts , investment strategy, early warning risk management
workshops in Asia reserve :email
wh3928@yahoo.com
=======================================================================================Dr.
Warren Huang accurately predicted on May 28-29, 2002 Peking University global finance conference Beijin that Dow Jones blue
chips, old economy stocks, Asian, European stocks, mutual fund overheated, ready for 30
% correction. but China Shanghai A oversold at 1450 will rebound to 1730
He demonstrated OSA simulators for tracking, simulate, forecast the root causes, onset,
recovery of global nonperformance loan, credit defaults( Bubble Burst impact on ENRON,
WCOM, Guanxia stock prices, credit rating and Taiwan banks nonperformance loan,
banks performance, stock prices, and Citigroup, JP Morgan nonperformance loan, stock
prices simulation, Intel, CISCO, Taiwan Semiconductors P4, DRAM prices, stock prices and
Japan high tech, auto, banking prices in government shares buy strategy for workshop
reservation wh3928@yahoo.com
China's Hurong Asset Management has bought 407 billion nonperformance loan debt, equities,
properties asset, will be recovered by auction, securitization
www.CHAMC.com.cn
Bank of Japan just announced to buy 50 billion dollars stocks hold by top 10 banks
bad loan. to support the sagging market and banks capital requirement
S. Korea is marching on successful by Korean assent management company to securitize
auto, credit loan solving banks bad loan. www.kamco.or.kr
Hong Kong's Mortgage Corp www.hkmc.org.hk and
Malaysia Harnahart Corp are securitize mortgage to solve bank properties loan (following
US Fannie Mae )
Taiwan bad loan account to 12 % of toal loan in properties and equites, debt. The
government also have stock market stabilization fund, operated in the past to buy
high quality share at Taiwan at 5000, 4500, 3500. Hong Kong also have stabilization fund
buy share at Henseng index around 7000-9000 during the Asian crisis.
However, all these measure require reliable asset pricing decision tools for the timing
and investment strategy during the global market slump
These Global Capital Markets, Nonperformance Debt, Equities, Properties
Asset Pricing Operations Simulations Analysis, provide reliable simulation of the root,
onset, recovery, pre-warning of Default Risks
Dr. Warren Huang's speech to Asian Business Forum on Asset
backed securitization(ABS) simulation, risk management strategy
What is wrong with Wall Street and global financial
market?,
Why markets crash 30 % ? Where is the bottom ? What Wall Street need ?
How to predict the unpredicted global financial markets?
his panel session May 28.,2002, OSA
simulation charts will be demonstrated in the workshops in-House workshops reservation by
selecting your region/country and subject of interests in one to two full day
workshops wh3928@yahoo.com
Dr Warren Huang,
pioneer of OSA presented the following dynamics simulation results in his panel
session May 28.,2002, Beijin Univeristy global finance corporate governance conference
and Asian Business Forum Asset Backed Securitization Conference, Kuala Lumpur
Sept 30, 2002
OSA simulation charts ( if requested )will be demonstrated in all Dr. Huang's workshops
1.Strategic Corporate Governance
Reform Accounting Scandals Early Warning OSA
on hign-tech,
energy , power prices bubble burst impact on earning, stock prices, credit rating and
nonperformance loan
China's Guangxia (0557) and US Enron Earning, Stocks Prices bubble bursts pre-warning
simulation
2.
Banking Reform: Root Causes, onset, spread, recovery, early warning of
global NPL loan
Monetary Policy high tech bubble burst impact on impact on US,
China FDI capital flow, Banking nonperformance loan Credit risks , Mutual fund performance, earning, stocks prices
Citigroup, JP Morgan
3. Asset prices, bubbles,
Securitization risk simulation:
Asian Property loan demand/ prices, bubble burst auto loan demand, sales, credit demand,
Delinquency ,the root causes, onset, recovery of nonperformance delinquency/ ABS
performance rating, stock prices
US mortgage rate, Housing prices, refinancing, impact on Fannie Mae sales, earning, stocks
prices
US auto interest free finance, sales, Big three stock prices, US loan , credit card
delinquency OSA
China, Hong Kong Taiwan Hong Kong Singapore Japan
J. P. Morgan, Pudong / Mingshen Banks JF China Fund Hua-an fund and gloobal mutual
fund performance, investment strategy
4. Global Equities Capital Market
Asset Prices Simulation:
Monetary Policy, Global Interest rate , Currency impact on Stock Index Futures Prices Simulation
Dow Jones/Nasdaq/ Japan Nikkei index/ Hong Kong Henseng Index/ Taiwan Stock Index
futures Prices London Financial Times, DAX index
5.
Enterprises privatization, Strategic IPO , ADR share prices simulation
Monetary Policy, Hi -Tech, Oils prices bubble impact on China IPO, ADR
shares prices simulation
China software king Yunyue , Mingshin bank IPO and China Offshore Oil ADR stock
prices Simulation
6 China, Asian, Global
housing properties, asset prices simulation
.Monetary Policy, Interest rate Wealth effect impact on US ,China,
Japan, Hong Kong Housing Prices
7 Global IT
upstream/downstream demand, prices , sales, earning, stock prices simulation
.Monetary Policy, Interest , currency impact on US NAPM,
products innovation cycles impact on semiconductor B/B, DRAM, Intel P4 demand,
spot prices and bubble bursts
6.
Root causes, on set, recovery of global financial
crisis impact on capital market prices simulation
:
Monetary , economic, fiscal Policy impact on the EURO, ASEAN,
Hong Kong, Japan, Taiwan, Korea Interest rate , Currency, stock indices before, during
,after the Asian, EURO, Russia, US recession, South American financial crisis
8. Strategic
Global Pre/post merger/acquisition
performance, stocks prices Simulation: Monetary
Policy, global economic, business cycle impact on US J P Morgan Exxon-Mobil
M/A Simulation
9.
Monetary Policy, Interest rate ,Currency, Export impact on US , CHina GNP, Stock Index
Futures Prices US quarterly GNP Growth Rate? NY Dow Jones and
Nasdaq Index Future
10 Global Commodity, crude
oil prices simulation:
.Interest rate, trade impact on currency futures, option Consumer
demand on crude oil futures,
11: Structural financial
products, derivatives, options prices simulation
Japan Yen exchange rate future and NYMEX Wtex
crude oil Future and call option price
12 Global currency futures operation pricing
mechanism and forecasts
13 Global stock indices futures operation pricing
mechanism and forecasts
Dr Warren Huang, pioneer of OSA, has his Ph.D in Chemical
Engineering, Operations Resaerch from Polytrechnic Institute of New York with thesis
extending APPLO moonlanding tracking of Nonlinear adaptive Kalman filtering
to applications to Chemical reactors control and econometric forecasting,
Hhas over 30 years develope, implement 32 global strategic knowledge management supported
investment, supply chain simulation systems supporting US Mobil, AMOCO, Phillips
Petroleum, Bailey Network Control, Stauffer Chemicals, Bechtel, FLuor, Kaiser board
members, corproate/plant think tanks and Taiwan, CHina, economic planning, ministry of
economic, finance, trade council, state and medium, small enterprises reengineerinig,
change management investment,supply chain strategy daily strategic decisions.
He has offered regular lectures to Beijin, Shanghai, Guanzhou, Shenzhen, Taipei, San
Francisco 15 cities TV, Radio, newspaper 30 million banking, finance money, fund managers,
investors and thousands on the job training workshops for China, Taiwan 100 banking,
securities companies CEO, fund, money managers, traders, investors, and trained 1000
Taiwan's Taiwan, Tsinghua, Tunghai university Chemical Engineering, economics, global
strategic management senior,, graduate students, and lectured CHina's Tsinghua, Peking,
Fudan,, Zechiang, Dalian, East China, Hua-Chun science, TEch economic management, Finance,
chemical engineering, computer control faculty, students, avoided trillion dollar
market loss since 1990. He has been invited to speak to 30 global central bank governor
financial risk management conferences on global banking, financial crisis, capital
markets asset bubble simulation, risk manage ment since 1998. He offer
consulting service t
Click here for Corporate
risks management annual memberships available
for global central bankers, financial institutions,hedging fund managers, investment
banking Corporate CEO, CFO, financial, procurement, marketing manager,traders, investors,
investment and risk management decision supports and senior, entry level staff on
the job training.
Contact : Whuang3928@aol.com
osawhh@citiz.net Fax : 1-510-524-4484(
San Francisco, USA)
No
part of this page can be copied without consent of Dr. Warren Huang's approval
Copyright 2003
www.osawh.com / Dr.
Warren Huang
¡@
By two master hands controlling global asset prices mechanism pioneer Dr. Warren Huang (黃華南博士) Pioneer, proactive structural dynamic global inflation, macro economy, daily financial markets interest rates, currency, stock, bond, derivatives, housing, commodities, oil asset pricing and risks valuation markets fundamentals price mechanism, accurately warned on Wall Street Journal Market beat Blog Sept.19, 2007 and Mar 5, 2008 masterclass workshop China fund world 2008, Pudong, China to Goldman Sach managing directors JPM, UBS and 150 China QDII/QFII fund managers that US Fed aggressive rate cuts drag dollar to 1.53-1.65 EURO, 95- 108 Yen, economic stimulus boost consumer spending on gasoline and jet fuel summer, demand, driving gasoline , heating oil to 415, oil price to 121-145, commodity price double, will peak out as US dollar rebound follow Fed ending rate cuts cycle , can not stop sub-prime crisis spreading, regional housing price slump 30-50 % and credit crisis, crunch crisis continue through 2009 drag economy into 2009 double dip deep recession resulted trillion housing and stock market loss and US, global stock indices bear market 50 - 70 % correction , Dow Jones test 6500-7000- NASDAQ PLUNGE testing 1250- 1500 and high fliers (GOOG, PTR, AAPL) , IT, retail stocks facing correction, with banking, finance, housing share price plunge 70- 90 %, dollar making to new low 85 Yen, commodity prices doubled, and bubble burst plunge 50-70 % in recession, widening bond , CDS spread and failure in MBS/CDO, Bear Stearn 30 billion dollar , trillions MBS hedge fund and government steps rescue Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac bail out, despite Fed rate cuts . He also warned top global investment bankers QFII management on Peking Univ June 2007 International Financial Engineering Conference that China overheated housing, stock market wealth gain resulted inflation over 8.7 % will lead to China Peoples Bank credit tightening to remove excessive liquidity, Banking housing, stock markets follow US housing price slump 30- 50 %, US - 6.1 GDP contraction, and -10 to - 20 % contraction for Asian countries deep recession, bear market correction, with Shanghai A testing 1700 rebound to 2800 in 2009
US stock market 30 % V- shape rebound from March low, leading to global stock price bubble appears again ( with Taiwan, China , Hong Kong, most serious) speculating recession recovery due to overoptimistic over economic recovery by China/US stimulus package, are facing bubble burst in summer 2009 correction due to disappointing L- shape slow recession recovery
Comment by Warren Huang Wall Street Journal Real Time Economics- Blog June 5, 12.37 PM,2009,
We will see this up trend peaking out in July, and start down turn , repeating last year and 2007 subprime crisis.
We have not Yes, this iis only from money managers point of overoptimistic view, enjoy the speculative stock prices bubble on 40 % gain on US and global stock markets look at a money supply, banking, finance side benefited by 8 trillion bailout and toxic asset removal, stock purchase, making good bank bullish economic recovery indicators, created V-shape recovery.
Whie the real economy, hosuing market continue slump with 12 % foreclosure, 32 % drop in housing prices, and9.4 % jobless rate, global deep recession ( GDP down 4 to - 19 %)
Sooner or late this year, we will find out that we have to face the worst of this credit financial , crisis, recession full impact on stock markets.
details on http://www.osawh.com/macro.html http://www.osawh.com/SP500.htm http://www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm
Comment by Warren Huang Wall Street Journal Market Beat- Blog January 23, May 27,, 2009 at 2:23 pm
Comment by Warren Huang Wall Street Journal Market Beat- November 17, 2008 at 4:50 pmWe have been through Phase I monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on Global Housing, Equities, Commodities, Bond, Derivatives Asset Prices Bubble Burst Mechanism and Sub-prime on Daily Prices Dynamics , Subprime, mortgage, Credit crisis, Financial , Systemic Risks impact on Recession which causes housing price down 19 %,trillions dolllar financial market loss, bankruptcy of Lehman, AIG Fannie Mae Freddie, Merrill Lynch and Citigroup with deep recession -6.2 % GDP in 4 Q 2008 and -5.7% for 1 Q 2009 and 8.9 %% unemployment and now we in Phase II Global deep recession ( Japan -15 % GDP, China 6.1 %, Korea -4.3 %, Taiwan -8.4 %, German -8.2%, UK -7.4 %, Singapore - 19 %, EURO 4.3 %, Brazil -13.6 %, Russia - 6 %)impact on Global banking, credit, financial crisis and industrial sectors demand, prices slump, export slump, and operating loss with jobless rate at 8- 9 % and business, consumer spending plunged over 5 %, will drag stock price for 20 % with Dow Jones retest 6000- 7000 lows in W shape more summer correction resulted widening mortgage,( as April foreclosure ra soared to 12 %, housing price down 32 % from 2006 peak, credit card, business loan loss will drag Bank of America 16 billion dollar loss even JP Morgan and more banking, financials into widening loss
despite money supply growth double, stock market two month rally 40 %, 8 trillion dollar bail out stimulus give some improvement in housing sales rebound, ISM index, tax rebate only provide partial support to consumer sentiment, but not enough for raise consumer spending, retail spending , home buyer 8000 tax credit and lower interest rate payment cannot stop soaring foreclosure rate to 12 %, with 11 month unsold inventory. capital, liquidity still stay in banking finance system, with improved profit and stock prices after bail out and removing toxic asset,
Real econoy and manufacturing still in deep recession, excess capacity with record 67 % utilization, falling demand and pricesand profit plunge cntinue into next week asunemployment rate soared to 10 %by yearend.. with 2 Q still facing -3 % GDP contraction, -2 % for the second half this year, while China only has 6.5 % GDP growth and 7.5 % for the second half due to export decline , despite 568 billion economic stimulus, 30 % growth in fixed investment, 13 % in retail sales ,with money still in banking, finance, stock market ( up 40 %) fail to enter real economy
The rest of Asian economy facing similar situation following US, China stocks rally with over 40 % growth, even the economy still in deep recession, with 50 % decline in export for Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong These huge Asian stock market bubble will follow US/China market for summer W shape correction , housing market continue to burst, with housing price down 50 % details on http://www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm http://www.osawh.com/recession.html http://www.osawh.com/macro.html http://www.osawh.com/SP500.htm Do not miss this proactive strategic investment , trillion dollar hedging strategy workshops series by OSA proactive solution pioneer Dr.Warren Huang
Based on my 30 years proactive structural simulation of last 30 years global monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on inflation, interest rateas, currency, commodities, equities, bond, housing asset prices, It correlation constant ot 0.95, error of 3.5 %,
accurately predicted last 30 years asset price boom and bust, and current US housing prices bubble burst resulted equities, commodity, oil, asset price 50- 70 % plunge, asset bubble burst, drag economy into recession details on www.osawh.com/recession.html www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm www.osawh.com/commody.html www.osawh.com/SP500.htm
Strategic PGFCR : Proactive Global Housing, Credit, Financial Crisis, Recession Operations Simulation) Forecast, complete coverage of years, months, ahead of lat 30 years and current housing, equities, commodities , MBS, ABS asset prices bubbles formation, boom and bust, early warning of derivatives hedging resulted financial crisis, avoided betting on the wrong side of investment resulted trillion dollar loss, deep recession and its impact through global macro, financial, industrial, trade economy integration and impact on daily capital market asset price mechanisms
Do not miss Dr. Warren Huang lectures, panelist speakers in Feb, March 2009 on 2009 China/US economic, financial market outlook Trillion Dollar Recession Hedge, supply chain cost reduction Optimal long-short ,ultra short strategy
Phase I monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on Global Housing, Equities, Commodities, Bond, Derivatives Asset Prices Bubble Burst Mechanism and Sub-prime on Daily Prices Dynamics , Subprime, mortgage, Credit crisis, Financial , Systemic Risks impact on Recession and
Phase II Global recession impact on banking, credit, financial crisis and industrial sectors demand, prices slump and operating loss
for
June on Peking Univ. Int. financial risk management conference, Beijing , June and Sept 2007 on Wall Street Journal market beat blog that US housing price slump 30 % continue into 2009, drag economic into deep recession, global stocks into bear market 50- 70 % correction , commodities, energy, raw material, products 50- 70 % correction and
Asian private equities, leverage finance acquisition summit , Feb 16- 17, Hong, Kong by Euromoney
China Forex, Energy, Metal Derivatives, Summit Credit, Financial Crisis, Recession Risks Derivatives Hedging 2009 Conference, Pudong, China, March, 2009 by EUROMONEY predicted Dow Jones rebound from 6500 to 8600 in bear market rebound, US economic L shape recovery , China Shanghai index rebound in Nov. 2008 due to Economic stimulus
China Derivatives Market Summit, Trillion Dollar Recession Risks Hedging 2009 Conference, Pudong, China, March, 2009 program China
China/US 2009 Housing, Financial Crisis Impact on Recession,, and Economic Stimulus Impact on Economy , Capital Markets , commodity, raw material s prices and derivatives prices Forecast by
By Dr. Warren Huang
Proactive Structural Trillion Dollar Recession Hedging, supply chain cost reduction,Multiclass Asset, Derivatives Allocation Strategy
by Dr. Warren Huang website: www.osawh.com Hyatt Regency, Pudong, Shanghai, Mar24- 25, 2009
and
Global/China multiclass (Oil, commodity, Equities, Bond, Housing Asset pricing and allocation by
World Renown Proactive Structural Asset Pricing pioneer Dr. Warren Huang
Post- Conference Master Class Strategic Multi-class Asset Allocation Workshop, Terrapinn Chinese
Proactive Structural Multiclass Asset Prices Mechanism and China/Global Fund World, Asset Allocation 2008,- 2009
by Dr. Warren Huang, Pioneer OSA Global Strategic Management Proactive Recession Strategy
Shangri-La Hotel, Pudong, Shanghai, Mar 4- 6, 2008
Reservation for your in house workshop osawhh@sina.com/ wh3928@yahoo.com
Comment by Warren Huang -Wall Street Journal Market Beat Blog November 13, 2008 at 1:10 pm
Now Dow Jones index start to reflect the real state of the deep recession economy, plunge into 7000- 8000, do not expect year end rally to 10000, ignoring the troubled prolonged deept recession ahead
As I warned on this blog repeatly that no industry, no country ( including high tech) can be immune from this global recession due to burst of super sized global housing price bubble
details on www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm www.osawh.com/macro.html www.osawh.com/SP500.htm
Comment by Warren Huang Market Beat Wall Street Journal- November 6, 2008 at 2:46 pm
financial decision and credit rating method, betting on the wrong side of economy and market prices, ignoring my warning on this blog and March in Pudong China fund worlds 2008 conference that US housing price slump continue into 2009, drag global economy into recession and stock market 50- 70 % correction., trillion dollar loss.
These proprietory will continue betting on the wrong side ot investment in current and future recovery ( speculate banking finance, bottomingout and election, yearend rally to 9600, will give all its gain to 8000- 8500 due to global recession fear details on www.osawh.com/recession.html www.osawh.com/SP500.htm
Comment by Warren Huang Wall Street Journal Market Beat Blog - October 29, 2008 at 2:56 pm
as stock plunged 50 % after Fed 425 point cuts.
Stock price are not cheap by stock price to earning ratio P/E valuation does not work for recession, financial crisis, where many stocks like banking, finance PE ratio drop from 10 to 5 finally to negative as facing huge mortgage and loss due to bad investments, top investment companies, like Lehman, Bear Stearn stocks disappear from 100 went bankruptcy, Morgan Stanley plunge from 96 to 8, as PE plunge from 15 to 4.
As I warned since March this year that the worst will not be over till summer next year, it is dangerous for anyone to invest in banking, finance before first half next year. those stock plunged more than 50 % since March. even Warren Buffet betting on the wrong timing on mortgage and Goldman Sach 5 billions,
We are facing unprecedented financial crisis out of super housing bubble burst, no one has the intelligent experience in valuation.
Only my proactive structural simulation of macro monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on daily financial, commodities, housing, equities asset bubble prices can pin point exactly , as I warned on Wall Street Journal Market Beat blogsince Sept. 2007 that rate cuts, stimulus, bail out plan will not, can not stop housing bubble burst resulted credit, financial crisis, recession and bear market correction, it will last into 2009.
details on www.osawh.com/centmaf.htm www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm www.osawh.com/fund2008.htm
Comment by Warren Huang , Wall Street Journal Real Time Economics Blog- October 17, 2008 at 10:05 pm
The real causes of current mortgage, credit, financial crisis and recession are due to poor financial, monetary policy decision modeling in asset pricing and risks valuation mechanism, Structural finance MBS, CDO , the burst of super housing, commodities asset price bubbles caused by 7 year longest expansive excessive money supply, easy credit policy .
Global central banks, financial markets financial decision still rely on 30 year old probabilistic, statistical Capital Market Asset Pricing (CAPM) and macroeconomic modeling, ignoring asset price impact on inflation and financial, housing , MBS, CDO prices.
Predicted by Dr. Warren Huang, pioneer of Proactive Structural Global Asset Pricing Mechanism , June 2007 , Beijing, Wall Street Journal Economic, Market Beat
Blog Aug.2007 and March 5, 2008 Pudong, China Fund World 2008 to 200 global top investment banking, fund managers that Global Housing price bubble burst, prices plunge 30 % into 2009, drag global economy into recession and stocks bond, oil, commodities, metals ,Derivative Asset Prices Bubbles Burst with 50 % Price Correction Cause Credit, Financial Crisis and Economic Recession will continue into 2009, ( As Dow Jones, SP 500, NASDAQ drag global stock indices plunged more than 50 % into 2002 recession low ,( Dow Jones after current consolidate in 8000- 9000 will test 7000, NASDAQ test 1250, S&P test 700 low, oil price plunged 50 % from 147 to 70¡AGas oil from1300 to 700 , corn from 800 to 350, gold price from 1000 to 550, cotton from 80 to 44 ¡^as global economy enter deep recession by year end, despite US700 billion and ECB 2.3 trillion bail out to stabilize credit crisis
details on www.osawh.com/Fedcrisab.htm www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm www.osawh.com/commody.html www.osawh.com/centmaf.html