Proactive, Structural Dynamic Global Macro-Financial Economic Impact on Capital Markets Asset Pricing Integration Operations Simulation Analysis for Systemic Riskss maximze risks adjusted return

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Trillion Dollar Global Recession Hedge : Causes, Impact on Global Capital Markets :
Innovative Proactive Structural Dynamic Asset Pricing , Bubble Burst Simulation for Strategic Global Capital Market Investing, Risks Early Warning Maximize Risks Adjusted Return

Optimal solution for policy trilemma by Proactive Structural Dynamic Global Capital Markets Integration, Asset Pricing , Asset Allocation , Strategic Arbitrage Trading in Crisis and Operations Simulation Analysis ( OSA ):
by pioneer, of two master hands controlling global macro, real time daily finance, capital markets prices
(workshops ) Chinese (中文) achieving optimal capital market growth without asset bubble crisis

Dr. Warren Huang warned on Wall Street Journal Aug. 2007 MarketBeat that Global developed, emerging markets are not immune to US sub-prime credit crisis market crash, as Dow Jones index plunged below 13000 drag US and global, BRIC banking finance stock plunged 30-40 %, PetroChina and oil stocks down 25 %, SSaG BRIC ETF 40 index down 15 % from 35 to 29
Trillion dollar recession hedge by Dr. Warren Huang

I warned last June , 2007 Peking University, Beijing International Financial Engineering Risk Management Conference and on this blog last Sept before Fed rate cuts
that rate cuts, can not stop US housing price slump continue into 2008 summer, drag US into recession, US and global stocks into bear market correction, with banking, finance, housing, shares down 50 %, IT, oil, retail and high fliers GOOG, AAPL, PTR shares down 30 % Any Hedge fund follow my advice could make trillion dollar in 2007.
details can be found on my one day full day workshop Mar.6, Pudong, Shanghai, China world fund 2008
www.osawh.com/fund2008.htm and www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm

Goal and Mission

Do not miss our (workshops ) opportunities by Dr. Warren Huang's 30 years development, implementation of thousands strategic structural dynamic asset prices models simulation the breakthrough structural finance products innovation techniques and in-depth global capital markets market forces, prices mechanism (Operations Simulation Analysis) OSA tracking, forecasts monetary, economic, fiscal policy, WTO impact on thousands US, China, Taiwan, Asian, Russia, European, S. American daily interest rates, currency, stocks, bond, commodities futures, derivatives, 20 industrial sectors, 5000 upstream/downstream products leading multinationals banking, finance, oil, IT, biotech, auto, appliances, food, retails producers, 300,000 importer/exporters to 100 countries, and traders daily investment decisions in forecast month ahead the emerging trend of dynamic emerging markets economic market forces impact on daily feedstock, products demand, futures, derivatives prices, investment, supply chain logistics, manufacturing, import/export, Basel II credit, market, operational, interest rate risks. provide structural solution to maximize risk adjusted financial, investment return return, competitive market shares achieve trillion dollar investment profit, avoided trillion dollar market loss, saved billion dollar supply chain costs

tailored to global government, enterprises, banking, finances enterprises board members, think tank and executives in integrating into the global markets decision needs:
by Dr. Warren Huang , has been invited to speak to 30 EURO ECB, US, China Peoples Banks governors and APEC central banks governors policy and capital market conferences, Government, business strategy and financial risk management conferences since 1998
and speak on Global Capital Markets Asset Prices Simulation, Risk Management for Beijin University business and finance center organized Global Finance, Corporate Governance conference May 27-29, 2002 and offer two lectures on Asian capital markets asset prices ,
B. Cost, financial accounting simulation, tracking, bubble forecasts, scandals early warning supporting securities, banking, insurance commission, regulation, supervision, Sarbane-Oxley act corporate governance scandal early warning maximize management team profit, board members, investors performance, transparency) and securitization risks simulation and control for Asian Business Forum's Asset Securitization in Kula Lumpur, Sept 30-Oct 1
C. Strategic investment decisions analysis, risk management early warning tracking, simulate, early warning for the causes, onset, spread, recovery, early warning for global financial, currency, energy, asset bubble burst crisis.
2. Corporate Finance
A. Corporate debt structural reform, reengineering, strategic change management
B. Corporate governance , scandals tracking, early warning
C. Maximize IPO ( initial stock portfolio offering ), stock prices and performance simulation, forecasts.
D. Maximize Pre merger targeting and post merger integration performance, value creation .

Global Economy and Financial Markets, Asset Prices Models (CAPM) Simulation for Global Investment Banking and banking Finance and capital markets credit performance, defaults risks OSA ( Operations Simulation Analysis) Control, for government, regulation, supervision and accounting malpractices pre-warning:
3. Strategic Banking Operation Simulation Analysis
Real Time Dynamic simulation of Global central banks Monetary, economic, fiscal Policy Impact on daily capital markets and commercial, investment banking interest rates, currency, industrial supply, demand, prices, corporate earning, stocks, bond, commodity, financial futures and derivatives , properties markets , mortgage, credit demand, corporate credit defaults, credit derivatives prices , defaults risk     control, and the causes, onset, spread, recovery of Asian, Russia, South America Financial, Banking Crisis and LTCM hedging fund failure and current US High tech bubble bursts, ENRON, TYCO, Global Crossing, IBM, NVDA , WCOM accounting malpractice, recession, recovery impact on the new economy boom and bust and financial and capital markets stability with financial engineering applications to structured finance in global banking and finance , corporate IPO, ADR, pre/post merger, integration performance improvement and daily accounting malpractices, credit default risk management for stocks markets, banking and insurance companies regulation, supervision.
A. Global Commercial banking, personal finance, strategic wealth management
B. Global Strategic Investment Banking Expert System
C. Maximize Banking, finance reform, integration Profit Operations Optimization
D. Strategic Corporate Governance Financial Accounting Scandal early warning
E. Basel II Operational, Credit, Interest Rate, Market Risks Operations Monitoring, Simulation, Early Warning
    Maximize Risks Adjusted Return, While supporting Basel II 3 pillars capital requirement, regulation, supervision< transparency requirement.
OSA pioneer Dr. Warren Huang has offered thousands seminars, workshops, daily commentary to TV, radio lectures for 30 million China, Taiwan, ASEAN, Asian, US government, central banks, banking, finance, corporate CEO, CFO, senior executive, fund managers, analysts, investors
on GNP growth, price stability risks control policy, government, financial industry, Corporate reform, reengineering, default risks supervision, regulation, prevention, daily global financial market portfolio risks management, supply chain cost reduction on the job training , decision support for internet e-commerce, e-business, e-finance, e-investment applications

Simulation of monetary policy impact Analysis
Monetary Policy, Oil Prices Impact on Global Capital Markets Financial, Energy Crisis, Recovery, Risk Control

The author has spend half of his time in Taiwan, ASEAN, Asia( 1980- 1996) and China, Hong Kong(1994-1998 with Ji in China), and US(1998-current), in developing, implementing dynamics Structural based global capital markets Operations Simulation Analysis(OSA) , providing global central banks monetary, economic policy, oil prices impact on daily EURO, Asian, US, global macro economy, daily financial, capital markets normal, crisis dynamics during 1980 and 2001.
The Root causes, pre-warning, onset, recovery of Economic boom, bust, currency, financial crisis OSA

Global Capital Markets Strategic Asset Management OSA ( Operations Simulation Analysis)

Strategic Global Investment Banking OSA

OSA pioneer Dr. Warren Huang's Proprietary Strategic OSA simulators maximize global investment banking profits at minimum risks through tracking accurately last 20 years monetary, economic , fiscal policy impact on global capital markets investment banking decsions during crisis :
He has offered hundreds investment workshops for China's nationawide and Taiwan, San Franccisco banking, finance CEO, money, fund, underwriting managers on underwriting, IPO, ADR prices, investment strategy and and risk management, warned on this website and www.sina.com USA in Dec 1999 and 20 global central banks governors conference that US new economy IPO, ADR bubble burst, will plunge 90 %
Global Investment Banking Expert Systems, e-Investing, e-Risk Management
COrporate Governance, Profit Margin Simulation/ Accounting Malpractice Prevention(workshops, memberships
Venture Capital Risks simulation, control ( workshops, memberships)
Financial markets Crisis Simulation risks Control (workshops, memberships)
IPO underwriting pricing / pre and Post Merger integerations Performance workshops, memberships
Market and credit risks simulation and control
Global Banking, Financial Crisis Simulation, Control: US and Global Debt Market Storm Simulation Forecasts. workshops , memberships
Global Investing Strategy and Investors Psychology: Two Master hands controlling global financial market prices: Misguided by institution investors analysts overoptimistics in the second half 2000,? and 2001 earning, use 3 months old earning data , ignoring rate hike and soaring oil prices? impact on? demand and prices, earning and stock prices, chasing the high flyer networks, chips stocks or low P/E old economy finance, consumer stocks, and dump the stocks after earning warning? resulted billion dollar loses Intel, Apple ,Yahoo,?SDL, QCOM, JNPR,? Kodak, NOK,? TSM,? all can be avoided by using two master hands controlling?? stock prices?? click for bull, bear markets buy/sell/hold decision/
EURO, US interest rate   impact on global industrial sectors earning , EU, UK? finance, IT stocks, ADR investing strategy
Global Oil Prices Energy Crisis Simulation Forecast: ?? economic slowdown, soaring import,? lead to excess? inventory , took oil price plunge to 23, OPEC cut production by 1.5 million, support oil prices around 24-28, heating oil: 70-83 Gasoline ?65-91
Fight Oil Crisis and Economic Recession :Global Energy Crisis Impact Simulation and cost reduction: On Old economy corporate earning decline Macro economic Inflation,Trade balance/currency, Oil future, option hedging? Investment,
Procurement prices and cost reduction, ,? Refining and process energy conservation? cost reduction Strategy
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Global Stocks and Bond underwriting, IPO and ADR prices OSA and investment strategy
Banking and FInance reform, restructuring, reengineering, risks simulation / change management
Pre and Post merger/acquisition performances and stocks prices OSA
Real Estate, Asset Prices OSA and investment Strategy, Boom and Bust pre-warning
Global Asset Allocation Management Strategy
OSA Today Journal for Global Capital Markets daily trading prices, and Risks control simulation

OSA pioneer Dr. Warren Huang's Proprietary Strategic Global Capital Markets Asset Prices OSA simulators maximize global capital markets profits at minimum risks in daily asset allocation management strategy through tracking accurately last 25 years monetary, economic , fiscal policy impact on global capital markets asset prices decisions during crisis :
He has offered thousand daily investment commentary and workshops for China's nationwide and Taiwan 15 cities (Beijing, Shanghai, SHenzhen, Gunazhou, Taipei San Franccisco) TV, radio and investment newspaper, journals 30 million banking, finance executives, investors, traders , and central banks governors conferences on daily Taiwan, China, Hongkong, US and global interest rates, spreads, loan performancxec, banking profit margin, credit risks, oils, commodities futures, currency futures, stocks, bond , derivatives prices, investment strategy, risks management warned before and during, after the Asian Financial Crisis and on this website and www.sina.com in Dec 1999 and 20 global central banks governors conference that US new economy IPO bubble burst, will plunge 90 % and again warned July 2001 in Beijin on US recession will drag China Shanghai A from 2100 to 1500 and Dow, Nikkei, Henseng plunge belwo 9,000 and Taiwan Index below 3500
Global interest rates, Bonds Yields, spread OSA, risk management
Global oils, commodities, derivatives , raw material, products demand, prices OSA
Global currency futures, derivatives prices OSA
Global Stock indices futures Hot stocks and Bond, derivatives prices OS A
Global Capital Investment fund credit perofrmance and defaults risks management
Global Proprietary portfolio arbitrage prices OSA
Monetary Policy Impact on Global Macro economic cycle and Financial Markets Dynamics OSA
Development and implementation OSA/Global and OSA/US simulation systems
Global Central Banks Monetary Policy, Oil prices shocks Impact on Macro economics Risks Simulations
Monetary Policy for Sustainable Growth: OSA𨧼lobal Asset Price Bubble Burst Simulation
Dynamic tracking simulation of last 1980, 1990, 2001 US, Japan, China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Korea, ASEAN, Russia, South America, European stocks, properties prices impact on consumer and business spending, macro economics GDP performances , to predict, forecast overpriced asset prices resulted consumers spending imbalance and business profit slump, leading to bubble burst and abrupt change in consumer and business confidence caused stock prices plunges with average error below 1.5 %, correlation constant above 0.95. These deterministic, dynamic simulation of last 20 years global asset prices, and economy boom and bust of the asset bubble vicious cycle of excessive monetary policy, low interest rate induced sustained long term bull markets stocks prices gain caused consumer and business spending in real estate properties pushed soaring housing prices and rent. And deficit spending (negative saving) in stock markets, pushed the stock s even higher, until abrupt reverse of consumer and investor confidence --the bubble burst- plunge of stocks (recent internet and biotech) and properties prices as it happened in US, Japan, Taiwan in 1980, 1987, 1990, energy crisis, EURO 1992 currency crisis, 1994 China runaway inflation, 1995 Mexico crisis, 1997-98 ASEAN, Japan, Korea, Russia, Brazil currency crisis, all caused by overpriced stock prices due to excess monetary policy and high GDP growth
1. Monetary Policy, oil prices impact on inflation, old and new economy corporate earning and global stock prices,:
2. Global stock prices and monetary policy impact on consumer and business spending.
3. Global stock prices, wealth effect , monetary policy impact on housing properties prices and rent
4. Global stock prices, wealth effect ,monetary policy impact on GDP macro-economics performance.
5. Global stock prices, monetary policy impact on procurement manager index
6. Global stock prices, wealth effect , monetary policy impact on consumer and business spending
William FRB/US and FRB/Global model provide on Monetary policy impact on US and global macro economy and financial markets However, the following OSA approach rigorous equations have been tracking successfully 100 IMF members countries central banker monetary policy impact on the macro-economy :
Inflation rate = F (Money supply growth rate %, Commodity index, Dollar exchange rate)
GNP = F (Money supply growth rate %, Interest Rate, Export Growth Rate)
Property prices = F (Money supply growth rate %, Interest Rate, stock index)
NAPM = F(Money supply growth rate %, Interest Rate, stock index)
Business, consumer spending = F(Fed fund rate, Nasdaq annual change, Yen exchange rate)

OSA/EURO for Economy and Financial Markets Simulation:: These formulas tracking the EURO 11 member countries monetary policy inter-bank interest rate converged to 3 % and with 4.5 % money supply growth to meet 2 % inflation and 2.5 % GNP in 1999 and Asian recovery, US soaring stocks, housing market wealth effect pushed consumer, business demand for EURO export, weak EURO ,pushed oil price to 37, 6 rate hike resulted slowdown in business, consumer spending , plunging prices, corporate profits, stocks prices to cool off US economy, drag NAPM from 58 to 41.2. GNP from 7.3 % to 0.5 %, EURO money supply growth exceeds 4.5 % to 6 %, inflation 2.8 % and GDP of 3.5 % lead to EURO 7 interest rate hike in 2000 to tightening the money supply growth to 4.5 % and inflation to 2 %, GDP to 2.8 % , falling oil price pushed EURO from 0.83 to 0.95 cut Into EURO export and corporate earning and stock prices retreat 15 %

OSA/US for Economy and Financial Markets Simulation
These equations predicted 1998 winter US three interest rate cuts to 4.5 %, provide m2 money supply growth rate expanded to 10.5 %, and dollar plunge 20 % to boost export Dow stock index soared form 7200 to 9600 and provide 4 th quarter 1998 GNP 6 %. to prevent US from danger of deflation caused by Global Financial Crisis related credit crunch, it also predicted 1993 deflation: money supply dropped to ? % even the fund rate cut to 3 %, led to US GNP contracted to 3 %... US, inflation up to 3.5 %, GDP of 7.3 % in winter 1999 due to Y2K excessive money supply lead to Dow soaring to 11400, Nasdaq doubled to 5100, these wealth effect further pushed consumer spending to 8 % and tripled oil prices 2000 , soaring property prices 4 th quarter 2000 GDP slowdown to 1.1 % inflation still at 3.6 % despite Fed 6 interest rate hikes , However, it finally cooled off in 2001 first quarter facing recession threat, forced Fed cut rate by 1.5 %, US consumer, business spending, GNP, Dow Jones simulation chart can be found on chart 1-4, more results can be found on my full workshop tommorow.
US housing prices bubble Simulation /Forecasts:
This equation predicted US 6 year economic expansion since 1995, Dow Jones tripled from 3600 to 11400 , Nasdaq soared 5 times lead to wealth effect pushed nationwide housing price index up 50 % with some major high tech cities like San Francisco, Silicon Valley, Boston, NY, prices even tripled. These bubble burst in 1990 Fed interest rate hike resulted price plunge 50 %
OSA/Japan: Macro economics and financial markets applications:
These equation indicated Japan enjoyed 9.6 % GDP growth at 13.5 % money supply growth and double digit export growth are excessive, inflationary in 1990 lead to Nikkei to 38000. And benefited by soaring export and BOJ stimulus package to boost the domestic demand boost the money supply from 4 % to 10 % and at zero interest rate Nikkei rebound from 15000 to 22500 lead Japan getting out of deflation in 2000. However US, EURO slowdown and rising oil prices lead to Japan trade deficit, export decline, US high tech stock plunge drag Japan money supply growth rate to 2 % ,Nikkei to 11500 , despite Bank of Japan inject money into the financial systems, buy back 368 billion stocks to remove banks nonperformance and boost money supply led to strong Nikkei rebound from 11600 to 13500,will facing resistance around 13000-14000. It can do little to stop global slowdown, Japan declining consumer spending and GDP contraction and 4.9 % high unemployment
Japan Housing prices bubble Simulation /Forecasts:
This equation predicted Japan housing prices soared 10 times during the late 1980𠏋 as money supply growth soared form 5 % to 13 %, Tokyo house prices soared 10 times, ranking top in global prices, as Nikkei soared from 15000 to 38000 . Tokyo house prices plunge 70 % as money supply growth plunge from 13 to 3 %, during 1990- 1998, It rebound 30 % as money supply growth from 2 % to 5 % in Asian crisis recovery in 1999 and government economic stimulus package, Nikkei rebound from 13000 to 18000 in 1999,. However it down 10 % since Nikkei plunge from 22000 to 11500 in 2001, simulation results will be demonstrated in the conference.

OSA/China Financial Markets and Economy Application:
How China avoided 1994 Financial Crisis and made soft-landing and 1998 Asian Financial Crisis Simulation:

This author with Ji and Dai spending half time in China during 1988 - 1998 implementing these relationships tracking Taiwan, Hong Kong and China peoples banks monetary policy impact on inflation and GNP and interest rate, Taiwan and RMB currency and stock markets prices. It accurately tracking and predicted daily China economy and financial markets activities, how the current Prime minister Zhu Rongji successfully managed China's monetary policy led China avoided possible financial crisis by successfully controlled the inflation, to bring it down from 35 % and 100 % currency depreciation to deflation of ?.5 %in 1999 and current 2.5 % by cutting the money supply growth from peak of 35 % in 1994 to 1996 15 % to achieve soft-landing and boost domestic demand to maintaining 15 % money supply growth 7.8 % GNP growth which lead to Shanghai stock index plunge from 1994𠏋 peak of 1550 to 333 and stabilized traded between 600 and 800 during 1994 and 1996 through three stages credit tightening to cut the domestic demand and reduced the import duty by 30 % to reduce the importing inflation and implemented stock markets and financial institution regulation and full transparency, ban short term foreign capital speculation in the housing and stock markets achieved perfect soft-landing in 1996. And also predicted 1996 interest rate cuts leading to bull markets, with Shanghai A index tripled from 520 to 1650 . ( all predicted by the author on lectures to 20 million 15 cities TV, radio programs and national newspapers during 1994- 98 .The state enterprise reform and Asian crisis resulted high unemployment and export slowdown, pulling the money supply down from 1996?s 28 % to 14 % in 1999, drag the GNP form 9.5 % to 7.8 % . But recovered strongly by domestic stimulus package and strong export growth (40 %) this year in soaring global demand, . with GDP 8.3 % and Shanghai index soared to 2100 new high while global stocks under correction due to US interest rate hike
The declining export, 50 billion domestic public construction deficit budget and 150 billion short term debt and falling corporate profit and falling prices as entering WTO this year. China will feel the global slowdown early 2001 , as stock prices just completed under 10 % correction predicted by the author tracking of China macro, financial trade economic impact on 700 listed corporate industries trends, profit margins and stock prices
China Housing prices bubble Simulation /Forecasts:
This equation predicted China housing prices soared 10 times during 1986- 1994 as money supply growth soared form -5 % to 35 %, Beijin, Shanghai house prices soared 10 times, ranking top 5 in global prices, as Shanghai stock index soared from 150 to 1500 . Housing prices plunge 70 % as money supply growth plunge from 35 to 12 %, during 1994- 1998, It rebound 30 % as money supply growth from 12 % to 15 % in Asian crisis recovery in 1999 and government economic stimulus package, Shanghai index rebound from 520 to 2100 since 1999,.
OSA/ASEAN and OSA/Asian, OSA/Russia, OSA/South America Financial Crisis Root Causes Simulation:

These formulas indicated the rest of Asian emerging countries, Russia, Mexico, Brazil failed to do so, maintaining excessive money supply and growth, by encourage short term hot money speculating in housing and stock markets resulted soaring stocks and properties prices and labor costs caused export decline and huge trade and current account deficit, led to runaway currency depreciation and inflation, followed by rising interest rate and tight money supply resulted economic contraction between 5 % and 10 % started July of 1997 , the burst of the asset bubble and widening of bond yield spread
These formula provide global central bankers and IMF combined feedforward and feedback control of inflation GNP through micro-tuning policy, meeting growth and stability control without causing damage due to deflation and inflation

Monetary Policy Impact on daily Global Financial Markets Dynamics Simulations:
Monetary Policy and shocks, speculative attack impact on global Financial Markets dynamics under stress:

Global Interest Rates , Bond prices and spread, Debt Markets Dynamics , Credit, Market Risk Simulations
The global central bankers use the commodity prices and inflation rate as the leading indicators for setting the monetary policy and short term interest rates (inter-bank rate or Fed fund rate), while the long term interest rate bond yield are related to the dollar exchange rate which influence the capital flow

.Short term Interbank or Fed fund rate =F (Money supply growth rate %, commodity index, oil price, inflation )
long term bond yield = F( money supply growth rate %, dollar exchange rate, inflation rate)

These formulas tracking, simulate global interest rate, bond prices dynamics accurately. It indicate that reduced demand due to Asian turmoil have drag down the global oils and , commodities prices and inflation,

US treasury and junk bond prices spread LTCM failure simulation :

The plunging oil prices during Asian Crisis allow US, China , Japan and EURO central banks applying expansionary monetary policy, which lead to falling interest rates and all time high in bond prices, US 30 yr ?T-Bond yield dropped below 4.5 % due to low inflation and strong dollar, while the junk Russia bond and US corporate bond was hurt by global financial crisis, especially Russia high inflation, plunge oil income lead to trade deficit and falling rubble , pushed yield to all time high led to widening spread summer 1998 as predicted by this formula, while LTCM speculate on Russia junk bond believe bond spread will converge below 2 %( it widening to 4 % instead) LTCM lead to US Fed three interest rate cut to 4.5 % to cut dollar strength, therefore the bond spread due to due to strong dollar and low inflation, oil prices
However, excessive money supply in 1998 lead to soaring US and global stocks, strong Asian recovery , with excessive money supply in winter 1999 for Y2K pushed global stocks even higher lead oil price doubled from 10 to 37, US inflation up from 1.1 to 3.5 % forced US 6 interest rate hike to 6.5 and EURO 7 interest rate hike to 4.75 % to cool off the soaring US stock market fueling consumer, business demand, pushing housing prices and labor prices bond yield soared from 4.5 % to 6.5%(with junk corporate bond yield soared to 13.5 %), due to falling dollar, rising inflation, plunging stock prices and concerned about asset bubble burst.
These deterministic models minimize risks , saving trillion dollar loses due to central bankers monetary policy risks, credit risks in developing countries, and betting on the wrong side of interest rates by LTCM and other banking and financial industry executives`

OSA/ASEAN, ASIAN and Russia, Brazil crisis applications While the troubled ASEAN and Asian countries and Russia, Brazil, Mexico central bankers have to tight the money supply, raising interest rates to fight inflation and stabilize the currency which caused by excessive money supply and currency depreciation, led to capital outflow, bond , stocks, plunge, bond yield spread soared to new high, instead of converge.

Monetary Policy, Trade Impact on Global Currency Exchange Rates Dynamics, Risks Simulation?
The Onset of global currency crisis:.

US dollar exchange rates are related to US and other countries trade deficit (or surplus) and the two countries interest rates spread

Dollar exchange rate = F (US trade deficit, the other country's trade surplus (deficit), interest rate spread)

Over 100 IMF countries dollar currency exchange rates simulations have been used for 1000 chemical engineering and economics seniors course assignment by the author. Tracking results have been published in the weekly trade journal for 100,000 Taiwan's Taipei importer/exporters members daily trading decisions for 100 countries export/import strategy
This formula accurately predicted 1998 summer US dollar overpriced at 147 Yen, due to soaring Japan trade surplus against widening US trade deficit, US 3 interest rate cuts led dollar plunge 20 % to 110. And continue its down trend to 103. Yen pluinged to 125 again this year as Japan suffer trade deficit due to soaring oil, prices, import, and export decline and stock prices plunged from 20000 to 11500 due to US, EURO slowdown, Japan high unemployment, decline consumer spending, falling interest rate,
And EURO plunge from 1.17 to current 0.83, as the union trade surplus plunged from 8 billion to widening trade deficit of 800 million due to soaring oil prices and import, despite ECB 7 interest rate hikes and intervention, recent oil price plunge below 25 and US economic slowdown pushed EURO to 0.95.
EURO and global major currency OSA forecasts as follows:
Asian, Russia, South American Currency Crisis, Risks Dynamics Simulation
The above formula tracking, simulating ASEAN, Asian troubled countries, Russian, Brazil daily currency dynamics before, at the onset of , during and after the crisis with average error below 1.5 %. It accurately predicted these central bankers must tighten money supply, raised interest rate to stabilize the exchange rate (increase the interest rate spread) due to rising trade and current account deficit.
Pre- currency crisis root causes Dynamic simulation :The excessive money supply and pouring foreign capital inflow led to ASEAN, Asian , Russia, Brazil economic boom and skyrocketing labor and properties, stock prices and wages, have cut into the export market competitiveness (against China's low labor costs), lead to soaring trade and current account deficit in Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Korean, Hong Kong, Brazil, Russia. This formula indicated fixed currency were overpriced(as shown)

Dynamics Simulation of onset and during global currency crisis

The widening of trade deficit to one billion US dollars lead to overprices currency : as the announcement of floating the currency lead to instantaneous currency deprecation according to this formula: Thailand, had to raise to interest rate from 15 % to 30 %, to stabilize the Baht exchange rate around 50(depreciated form 25), Hong Kong raised the interbank rate from 5 % to 25 % to allow the Hong Kong dollar stick to the 7.7), S. Korea has to raised the interest from 20 % to 40 % to prevent it drop to 2000 (depreciated from 750) , Indonesia had to raise interest rate from 20 % to 57 % to stabilize the Rupiah at 17000., Malaysia, Taiwan and Singapore, Australia all had to raise interest rates to stabilize their currency due to widening trade deficit, . The central bankers must raise the interest rate to stabilize their currency and fight inflation. Thailand, Korea, Hong Kong, Brazil, doubled interest rate Russia tripled the interest rate to fight inflation and stabilize currency , cut domestic consumption, thus improve trade and current account surplus.
OSA/Brazil central bank decision to float the Real currency, cut the interest rate to save the stock market, took the Real dropped from 1.1 to 2.4, help to boost the export, the stock responded to the interest rate cut, rebounded from 5000 to 9700, the global players are supporting the stock markets make it stick to Dow index (following Hong Kong style), despite Brazil economy under 4 % contraction and further tightening to cut expenses, Brazil interest rate, Real currency and impact on stock market have been simulated accurately
Dynamics simulation of Monetary Policy on UK, 11 EURO member countries currency, stocks Prices :
EURO currency :, it will have support around 0. 82- 0.84 . However weaker EURO will boost EMU export, plunging oil prices resulted union shrinking trade deficit to 800 million vs US 34 billion deficit, Rising EURO interest rate also help stabilize EURO currency to 0.88- 0.95-

currency simulation and currency crisis simulation will be demonstrated in my workshops
Monetary policy impact on global stock market indices cash and futures trading loses risks simulation:

Stock Index/Bond cash and future price = F (M2 money supply growth, interest rate, dollar exchange rate)

This relationship simulated last 20 years 40 daily international stock market stock indices, including normal and major crisis (under stress discontinuous data) with average error below 1.5 %. It predicted 1987 crash as FED raise fund rate 0.75 %: recent Nasdaq plunge form 5100 to 1800 as Fed 6 interest rate hike and 1995 Baring betting on the wrong side of Nikkei Index. And 1990 Nikkei crash from 38000 as Bank of Japan tightening the money supply growth from 13 % to 5 %
OSA/US Dow Jones Index risk dynamics simulation:,

1987 crash :The high US inflation rate (6.5% ) complicated by the Iranian war in early Oct. 17, 1987, pushed the oil price to 25, lead US Fed credit tightening, reduce the money supply growth from 9 % to 7 %,, raised the Fed fund rate from 9 % to 9.75%, the Dollar Yen exchange rate drop from 150 to 136, took the Dow instantaneously crashed from 2250 to 1520 It also indicate the Dow responding to 1998 winter 3 Fed fund rate cut , each 25 base point corresponding to raise the consumer spending and pushed Dow 800 points ( the first rate cut pushed money supply from 6.9 % at the credit crunch, Dow rebounded from 7400 bottom to 8200, the second rate cut pushed money supply from 8.5 % to 9.5 %, pushed Dow from 8200 to 9000, while the third rate cut led to overheated stock and properties prices and speculation, the money supply growth pushed to 10.5 % in January, took the Dow marching toward 10,000 and making new highs in mid March, due to high money supply growth of 10 .5% and three Fed fund rate cuts to 4.5 %,dollar plunge 20 % to boost export (IC and computer industry are benefited)
and US 6 rate hikes to cooloff consumer spending from 9 % to 5 % pulled Dow 20 % to 9100, as shown Chart Nasdaq down 65 % to 1850, EURO 7 rate hikes drag EURO stocks 15 % as indicated

OSA/Global Trade : Monetary Policy Impact on Global Trade simulation:
Global trade are closely related to global monetary policy which indicating importing country cousumer demand, and exporting country currency (cost)
For country bilateral or multilateral trade:
Export Growth = (export market central bank monetary growth, interest rate, currency exchange rate)
Import growth rate =( central bank money supply growth, interest rate, currency exchange)
OSA/Global: indicated Asian, Russia, Brazil crisis countries all depreciated currency , make export price very cheap to boost export, made import very expensive to cut domestic demand, and import, therefore boost trade surplus to support the currency.
OSA/US: US interest rate cut led US dollar depreciate 10 % against EURO to boost US goods export to EURO but US dollar up from 103 to 123 against Japan𠏋 sluggish demand( money supply growth stay at 2%, cut into US eport to Japan, lead to US export decline , while the soaring oil, raw material prices pushed US and global import led to soaring US trade deficit to 35 billion
the author has conducted university teaching, research , trained 1000 chemical engineering, economics, strategic management students tracking simulate 100 IMF countries central bankers monetary, WTO trade policy impact on GNP, interest rates, exchange rates, commodities, refinery, petrochemicals, fibers, plastics raw material and 500 consumers products prices, He also provide decision support and on the job training to Taiwan's government state and private enterprises restructuring, global strategic management and consulting to 100,000 importer/exporter association members weekly global currency, global import/export markets spot, contract pricing, commodities, raw material, products in import and 100 international countries export /import market strategy
He also offered hundreds on the job training for 10,000 corporate finance, marketing, sales, production, Quality management, production VP, senior managers. And has written thousands articles on real time tracking, simulation, forecasts of global currency exchange rates interest rates, impact on crude oil, petrochemical, fibers, plastics, rubbers raw materials, IC, computers spot, contract prices, procurement, products competitive pricing ,marketing shares improvement strategy.,
Monetary Policy Impact on Global Commodities, Industrial sectors supply, demand, prices , profit margin simulation
Global Commodities, Industrial raw materials, consumers products futures prices simulations,
Feedgrain commodities cash, future prices = (current, future oil price, US inflation rate, Yen exchange rate)
Metal cash, future prices = (US NAPM, US interest rate, Yen exchange rate)
Heating oil, gasoline prices = F (consumer demand, crude oil prices, inflation)
raw material, IC chips prices = F( demand, raw material costs, exchange rate )
Crude oil price = F ( gasoline price, heating oil prices, exchange rate)
refinery profit margin = F(crude oil demand and prices, gasoline, heating oil sales, prices)
The risks in uncertainties in corporate profits due to global deflation, US manufacturing recession (NAPM plunged to 41.6 )resulted product demand and prices slump in global commodities, industrial raw material and consumers products contract and spot and futures prices and credit crunch( except soaring oil prices due to strong US heating oil, gasoline demand and OPEC 1.5 million production cut is shown on chart 5 , covering last summer peak US gasoline prices of 107 pushed US Texas light crude oil to 37 and cold winter drive up heating oil to 100 c/gal pushed oil prices to 35 again
This equation also relating products prices to current and future raw material cost, downstream demand, and the dollar exchange rates in the trading countries or spot, futures markets. Thousands of such proprietary prices simulation forecasts models have been developed, implemented since 1980 energy crisis , presented to American Institute of Chemical Engineers Golden Jubilee meeting in Washington DC, 1983, on OSA for global petrochemical marketing and sales strategy in the 1980𠏋 and Tokyo world congress in Chemical engineering to global CEO and executives on Simulation of global petrochemicals demand, prices, and to 1989𠏋 Petroleum Minnisters conference conference and 1991 Beijin, INTERPEC China on integrated strategic management for global refinery and petrochemicals in the 1990𠏋 and 50 global chemicals engineering and computer control conference (reference20-25) and lectured to 30 millions US, EUROS, Taiwan and China's corporate procurement, marketing, sales managers and 100,000 importer/exporter members , TV, radio audiences, investors on daily , weekly global currency tracking and import/export pricing strategy and gold and metals, feedgrains, oils, petrochemical, fibers, plastics, paper and computers companies daily global corporate procurement, marketing strategic decisions during the last 14 years and Asian crisis.

US dollar plunge from 147 to 105 and excessive consumer demand are responsible for heating, oil, gasoline prices to 100 pushed crude oil prices to 37 Refinery margin up from 4 % to 8 % as shown in the simulation on Chart 6, is benefited by high gasoline demand and prices support in US and EURO, but hurt by fuel oil and crude oil prices due
Simulation of monetary policy impact on global e-business strategic management
Investment and risk management strategy

Capital Investment and equities investing strategy
Global old and new economics capital investment ignoring demand side economics impact on
product sales demand, prices, and investment return, which resulted excess capacity in olefin, petrochemical, fibers, polymers in Asia (Taiwan, China, Japan, Korea) in 1993-1997 oversupply , prices profit plunge during recent energy crisis, even oil prices soared to 37, the downstream ethylene, styrene still stayed below 600 USA/MT vs 1900 in 1990.
While the new economic IT products chips, PC, internet, network, fiber optics, wireless telecommunication equipment made the same mistakes by heavy investment and expansion in US, Korea, Taiwan during 1999-2000., ignoring US Fed 6 rate hikes to cool off the consumer and business spending as warned by this author in 18 global central banks conference.
These heavy investments created sharp prices cutting and huge operating loss, stock prices plunged 95 %
Pre-and post merger acquisition performance simulation
The industry failed in pre-and post merger acquisition performance simulation in billion dollar mega merger created even huge loss and debt
Global Oils, Petrochemicals Industry Corporate Pre and Post Mergers/ Acquisitions OSA(Jan 20, 2000
Exxon-Mobil merger:
Based on the author's associated with both Mobil and AMOCO headquarters, both company although enjoyed over 135 % gain in profits downstream refining, petrochemical operations are hurt by soaring crude oil prices, cut into profit margin to only 6.5 % , 15,000 staff cut to save 3.5 billion payroll cost may not improve it's post merger integration performance as oil prices peaking out and the strict environment standard on restriction MTBE additive in gasoline as it happen in Compaq, Boeing and others.) stock prices will be below 100. It need to do more in the post merger acquisition integration and improve on the procurement, refining operation strategic improvement, which can cut billion dollars and expand margin to above 10 %

However BPAMOCO merger is more goal oriented in global diversification, It invested 20 % in China's national co PetroChina, and strengthen it's global market　shares, stock price at 50 is attractive will be traded in 50-72
The author have development Over ten thousands of artificial intelligence, neural net, fuzzy logic, chaos algorithms based daily global interest rates, currency rates, commodity, oils, petrochemicals feedstock, products , financial futures, options prices, corporate profitability and stock prices Operations Simulations Analysis expert systems, and implemented for US, Asian Pacific, European multinational oil, petrochemicals, information, biotech industry corporate investment banking, government, state enterprises reform, privatization, restructuring, reengineering, pre and post merger/acquisitions applications during the last 30 years with Mobil, AMOCO, Phillips Petroleum, Stauffer Chemicals US headquarters (subsidiary of Rhone Poulenc) (These systems have been recommend by US Hydrocarbon Processing Advanced Control and Information Management, Productivity and Quality, Process Design & Optimization Handbook during 1991- 1997, Over 1000 major cos from 65 US, European, Asian Pacific, South American countries including EXXON, Dupont, BP, Shell, BASF, Aramco, Sinopec, IBM, Merck . In addition to thousands corporate managers contacted 32 OSA based corporate pre and post merger/acquisitions restructuring, reengineering performances analysis )and strategy, tracking, simulate daily US Fed and global central bankers monetary policy, interest rates, currency, Asian financial crisis and it's impact on global global commodity, industrial raw materials, financial futures, options prices, corporate profitability, stock prices. He has directed over 1000 senior graduate chemical engineering . students to develop OSA approach to 60 refinery, petrochemicals, fibers, plastics process simulations and corporate global strategic management applications for oil, petrochemicals industry pre and post merger/acquisition restructuring, reengineering and performances improvements simulation, investment, risk management for helping 20 millions global corporate CEO, finance, import/ export, currency, equities trading, procurement, marketing managers, investors to take advantage of investment opportunities in last 20 years financial crisis through the joint academic-industry training centers setup, in OSA goal mission, performance oriented OSA teams directed by Dr. Warren Huang to provide on the job training for oil, petrochemicals industry corporate managers in pre and post merger/acquisition daily decision analysis
US weekly Fed and European, Asian central bankers money supply, fund rate, Asian Financial Crisis, Yen exchange rate and new product development impact on daily BP AND AMOCO pre and post mergers performance OSA

Pre mergers OSA: Oils and Petrochemical industries are badly hurt by the Asian turmoil and strong dollar .The global oils and petrochemcials, plastics, fibers feedstock's and products have been dropped to ten years low due to Asian demand slow down and currency depreciation. It continued to suffered by soaring oil prices to 37 resulted heavy loss. in the post crisis recovery

Post mergers OSA: The Cross continent mergers involved different cultural background and management concept may reduce some manpower costs in the immediate future, However, It still requires this authors over 30 years experiences in implementing quality, cost, market shares goal, mission, performance oriented cross functional pizza chart OSA strategic and execu tion OSA teams for US, European, Asian Pacific multinationals provide unified manage ment concept, procedures and decision methods supporting new corporate restructuring, reengineer ring efforts to reduce feedstock, inventory costs and process efficiency improvement with expanded market shares.
Stock investment strategy: but both have to face the increasing competition in the oils petroch micals industry. BPAMOCO will be traded between 47and 55,
Finance group mega merger Citigroup of Traveler caought in Russia crisis, stock plunged from 75 to 29 presented by this author on JP Morgan sponsored post EURO banking and finance integration and risk management strategy Nov. 26, 1998, Rome Italy

He warned banking finance industry mega merger emphasized on staff reduction benefit and diversification , ignored post merger integration improvement on risk management decision making resulted Citigroup, UBS billion dollar loss in Russian, and LTCM crisis.

He accurately predicted Chase 36 billion dollar merge. JP Morgan will give up all it's gain to 110, Chase plunge to 35
and JDSU 100 billion inflated high cost merger SDL will cause operating hardship , stocks will subject to 50-70 % plunged, JDSU plunged from 160 to 10, SDL from 400 to 90
Monetary Policy Impact on Global Capital Markets Prices, Investment Strategy
Monetary policy impact on global stock market indices cash and futures trading loses risks simulation:
Stock Index/Bond cash and future price = F (M2 money supply growth, interest rate, dollar exchange rate)
This relationship simulated last 20 years 40 daily international stock market stock indices, including normal and major crisis (under stress discontinuous data) with average error below 1.5 %. It predicted 1987 crash as FED raise fund rate 0.75 %: recent Nasdaq plunge form 5100 to 3000 as Fed 6 interest rate hike and 1995 Baring betting on the wrong side of Nikkei Index. And 1990 Nikkei crash from 38000 as Bank of Japan tightening the money supply growth from 13 % to 5 %
Global Asset Prices Simulation and Portfolio Investment Strategy(Two master hands controlling global stock prices)
This author have been successfully applying two master hands accurately tracking simulating, forecasts monetary policy impact on global daily鮰lobal stocks index (right master hands controlling investor sentiments )and corporate earning ,hot stocks , IPO, ADR shares prices(left master hands controlling corporate stock performance) during the last 20 years in the boom and bust, burst cycle, These two master hands provide forward looking instantaneous dynamics simulation forecast, instead of?speculate on the past economic and corporate earning data?( 3 month behind) resulted overbought and oversold caused trillions dollars market loss
Over 30 million China, Taiwan government, banking, finance, corporate CEO, fund managers, analyst, traders, investors have been benefited by this author lecture on two master hands controlling global stocks prices to China's 12 cities , Taiwan TV, radio daily, weekly commentary , and workshops since 1987
Global Stock Index Simulation :The right master hand simulate last 20 years monetary policy impact on daily stock index

This right master hand pinpoint the risks of overheated investor sentiments (monetary policy tell you do not chase index when they?are too hot, when every fundamental and technical analysts recommending bull market continue,, investors chasing ( the author warned on July 20 1998 Dow approaching 9500, is overheated for 20 % correction, Next day Greenspan warning on inflation and rate hike, drag Dow to 7500 and Jan 2000, Dr. Huang warned on www.sina.com and www.osawh.com that Nasdaq overheated for correction to 3000 , It plunge from 5100 to 3000 later

Global corporate earning, profit margin simulation (Left master hands)

Corporate margin/earning = F( Sales, Costs) = F (raw material, financial, labor costs, sale prices)=F (monetary policy, currency)
US refinery opera ting profit margin is very much depend on the crude oil cost, refining products gasoline, heating oil prices . the relation is shown on Chart the margin varies from 3 % 9 %

Global Corporate Stock Prices Simulation :
The left master hand simulate last 20 years monetary policy impact on daily industrial supply, demand, prices, profit margin: raw material, financial, labor costs, sales and unit prices, corporate earning, profit margin

global stock prices = F (Global stock index, corporate profit margin/earning)

The left master hand will tell you how monetary policy impact on the industrial sectors supply demand, prices corporate earning, profit margin stock prices? decline is over, when everybody is selling ready for turnaround
Therefore combing right master hands( investors sentiment) and the left master(corporate performance) will accurately predicted last 20 years global stock prices (hot stocks, ADR, IPO)

Hi-tech IPO stock prices simulation = F( Nasdaq index, corporate or industry group earning)

These two master hand controlling IPO prices as well
For Internet stock index are related to US Fed money supply growth, interest rate and investor sentiment (Nasdaq index), as for individual internet IPO stock prices, they are related to the internet stock and Nasdaq index (investor sentiment in internet) and corporate revenue and earning outlook(depend on industry trend and regional economy.

Global ADR shares prices = F( Home country investor sentiment, listed country investor sentiment, stock earning, margin) = F ( home country stock index, US Nasdaq index, corporate earning)
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Global Investment Banking, Crisis, Risk Management :Simulation of central bank monetary policy impact on growth, and daily interest rate, currency, commodity, stocks price stability
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Two master hands controling global Bull, Bear Markets?, Buy, Sell, Hold for global stocks in 2001
Right hand simulate, control monetary policy impact on daily financial , commodity market sentiments
Left Hand : simulate, control cousumer business demand impact on industy, corporate earning, stock prices
Dr Huang has implemeted two master hand controlling global financial markets bull, bear market and for daily buy/ sell/ hold decision one month ahead. He has lectured to 30 millions China, Taiwan, US Radio, TV audienced, workshops tracking last 20 years, accurately predicted the bull, bear, buy,sell/ hold decisions
Global Banking, Financial Crisis Simulation, Forecasts, Risk Management
presented by OSA pioneer Dr. Warren Huang to 20 Asian, US, EURO, ASEAN central banks governors, financial management conferences 1999- 2001
S.OSA- Asset Bubble Burst- Simulation of Greenspan Aug 27 , 1999, March 20, 2001 speech on focus on stock markets asset bubble burst in Global Stock prices impact on house, business spending, housing properties prices,, GDP and central banks Monetary Policy
A. OSA-Country Risks: Country inflation/Deflation economic and business cycle, capital flow, currency, systemic credit, nonperformance loan, banking crisis and default risks simulation and control
B. OSA-Credit Risk:     Macro-economic imbalance, currency, commodity, interest rate, stocks bond, derivative market trading, policy, operation , liquidity default risks simulation, control,
C. OSA-Commodity:    Policy, currency, oil prices, supply/demand impact on Energy, Feed grain, food,metals, fibers futures and derivative prices resulted trading loss simulation.
D. OSA-Currency: Interest rate spread, trade impact on daily global currency , and it's derivatives prices dynamicsthe onset of currency crisis risks simulation and control
E. OSA-Interest Rate: Policy, currency, inflation, commodity price shocks impact on short , long term interest rate, treasury and corporate bond spread and it's derivatives prices risks simulation , control
F. OSA- Market Risk; Policy, external shocks impact on global money, currency, stocks, derivatives markets price risks simulation, control
G. OSA-Merger RIsk: Policy, external shocks, technology innovation impact on pre/post merger/acquisition cost/benefit, profit margin, stock prices performance risks simulation, control.:
Big is not beautiful, it is risky: presented by Dr. Huang on JP Morgan sponsored post EURO banking and finance integration and risk management strategy Nov. 26, 1998, Rome Italy
He warned banking finance industry mega merger emphasized on staff reduction nbenefit and diversification , ignored post merger integration improvement on risk management decision making resulted Citigroup, UBS billion dollar loss in RUssian, and LTCM crisis.

Dr Huang accurately predicted Chase Manhatten 36 billion dollar merge JP Morgan failed to support Dow above 11200   it will be another one day rally, finance, JPM will give all it's gain to 150, Chase plunge to 45 drag Dow down to test 10200 soon as Chase- JPM merger will not help boost the stock market trading volume, while facing addition market slump related crisis as both companies already experienced) 12/9/200)
Goldman Sach(GS)merger Spear Leed, stock market maker for 7 billion will not help GS near term perfo rmance due to IPO slowdown and falling stock prices and trading volume. GS shares will test 120 .(11/9/2000 HWP as predicted by Dr. Huang will testing 100. dispite HWP merge Pricewaterhouse for 17 billion are too expensive, will not help ne ar term HWP profit margin. HWP will be testing 100 (11/9/2000)
UBS offered 11.6 billion to merge Donaldson Lufkin
( the merger is too expensive and risky for UBS which just recoverd billion dollars loese in 1998 RUssian and LTCM crisis , will face markets slump risk in year end. UBS share will be down in the range 110 ans 150
Globa banking and finance stocks are overpriced through speculated on waves of global finance mega mergers in Duetsch bank- Banker Trust, and other mergers can not improve it's near term peroformance in global slowdown in loaan demand, slumping stock prices and even exposed to biger nonperformance loan default risks. These stocks prices will give all it's gain in the earning decline news month ahead
H.OSA-Procurement: Monetary policy, macroeconomic, currency, oil price shock impact on global oil, petrochemicals, plastics, fibers, commodities, semiconductor raw material prices strategic procurement management
I.OSA-Real Estate Risk: Monetary policy, commodities prices shock, stock markets wealth effect, inflation, capital flow impact on residential, office properties prices and rent, nonperfromance loan risk simualtion, control ,
K. OSA Eonomic,Business Cycle Risk:: Monetary policy, external shock impact on inflation, GNP, unemployment, wages, consumer confidence, auto, housing, appliance, electronic demand, export, purchasing managers index etc.
L. Profit Margin and accounting malpractice risks: Simulation of monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact supply, demand, prices,profit margin, provide pre-warning of ENRON, TYCO, Global Crossing accounting malpractices.

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Contact : whuang@osawh.com Whuang3928@aol.com Fax : 1-510-524-4484( San Francisco, USA) Copyright 1999 osawh.com/ Dr. Warren Huang

Contact : whuang@osawh.com Whuang3928@aol.com Fax : 1-510-524-4484( San Francisco, USA)
Copyright 1999 osawh.com/ Dr. Warren Huang