Proactive Structural Global ADR share price forecast: Two master hands controlling Global ADR and hot stocks prices simulation forecasts , investment opportunites, risks early warning

Global Strategic Management     Two master hands controlling Global ADR prices OSA forecasts, mission control , helps millions global
    OSA            investment bankers, QFII/QDII money managers achieve sustainable profit growth even in crisis
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Proactive Structural Global ADR Pricce Forecasts
Two master hands controlling China/ Global ADR , ETF Prices OSA Forecasts:
stocks prices simulation Forecasts risks hedging, tracking, early warning

email wh3928@yahoo.com ask for Global ADR workshop tracking your own investment risks and return

US and Global Monetary Policy Impact on Global Macroeconomic, Industrial sectors supply, demand, listed US deposit share profit margin and US investor sentiment impact on hot ADR stocks Prices and Risks Operations Simulation Analysis by Pioneer of two master hands controlling global economy, capital market prices OSA Dr Warren Huang

Dr. Huang warned to thousands global QFII that Greenspan and Dr. Bernanke overoptimistic over US inflation, it will not in check with one more rate hike, as last 17 measured rate hikes mislead the markets, underestimated the oil prices impact on inflation and encouraged wealth effect resulted speculation in housing , equities prices bubbles resulted soaring demand in downstream construction material, oil, energy prices, soaring consumer confidence, demand ( 7 %), business demand at 15 %, money supply growth at 8 %, with 53 trillion wealth effect, drive materials bubbles in oil and natural resources making new high in the summer. Dr. Warren Huang predicted to Asian Business Forum's multinational oil, banking CEO, QFII executives in Beijin Nov. 2005 that oil prices will soar to 78, metal prices to new high in January, US will raise rates throughout summer 2006 continue into 2007, recommended China A shares and ADR and global metals, energy ADR shares prices more than doubled , drive CPI to 4.3 % in March and higher in the month ahead. US Fed fund rate 10 yr. bond yield will go to 5.5 %, stocks, bond facing correction ahead.
Our new website www.osaglobalstrategicmanagement.com/globaladr.html will
provide regular update and global adr strategy workshops

5- day Global Oil, Gold, Currency Futures, Option Prices Simulation Forecast Workshop
30 years helping 78 countries multinationals oils and downstream fighting soaring oil, feedstock cost, maximizing sustainable profits and market shares.
5-day global ETF and specialty ETF ADR strategic investment, risk management workshop

30 millions China , Taiwan, US San Francisco, Silicon Valley 15 cites TV, radio investors, fund managers, hundreds investment banking, banking, securities companies CEO, CFO, fund managers, traders benefited by Dr. Huang's full day workshops since 1990, provide the latest forecasts, investment opportunities, risks early warning for emerging market trend in global economy, capital markets prices, Global Currencies, commodities , ETF, ADR shares , mutual fund asset management investment opportunities, global central banks monetary policy makers, financial, capital markets, CEO, executives, investors book your strategic workshops

email osawhh@sina.com , wh3928@yahoo.com for reservation

When you have Dr. Huang's two OSA master hands you are in good hands for global central banks macro-economic control , prices stability and capital market prices simulation, forecasts , value investing strategy, wealth management, risk hedging That's what he has been lecture to 24 global central bank governors, wealth management, financial market risk management conferences and millions global central banks, banking, finance, corporate CEO, executives on this website since 1998 , over 30 million China, Taiwan, Asian, US , ASEAN, European executives, investors on TV, radio programs and thousands workshops since 1985 and He predicted accurately Feb 22 in Beijin Asian Business Forum 70 global banking, finance, oil companies , QFII CEO, executives US facing inflationary slowdown and rate hikes continue into final quarter as oil prices soared from 45 to 69 , China ADR PTR, CNOOC price almost tripled and again in Beijing Nov 18, 2005 to Asian Business Forum China Oil Markets 30 oil companies CEO, executives that increasing oils and downstream demand driving oil prices to 65 before Christmas and 78 in summer in January 2006, 2007, energy ETF, ADR doubled
again Dr. Warren Huang CV accurately predicted Nov. 5, 2003 in Singapore ,Shanghai Euro-events conferences Singapore http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/ photos 1, 2, 3 lecture ppt , Shanghai, Beijin Nov. 2003 Asian/China finance, capital Markets conferences, www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm   picture 2 and to China economists meeting Fudan University, Shanghai , Dec. over 2000 QFII/QDII executives, May 8, 15 to US Silicon Valley investors, radio station , and www.osawh.com website that US Oil, commodity prices reaching 23 year high, will follow economic recovery and not transitory weak dollar due to soaring trade deficit, ( 55.3 billion for June) inflation up 5 %, bond market slump in May 2004 job creation, productivity, profit growth peaking out in the second quarter 2004 Fed June, Aug 0.25 % rate hike China credit tightening, follow US rate hike in summer 2004, global stocks entering bear market consolidation, with 30- 50 % correction Global IPO will facing 30-50 % correction as Google plunged from 135 to 60-80, any attempt using IPO to speculate market rebound will be followed by sell off bear trap , avoided trillion dollar bond, equities, derivative market loss made trillion dollar oil, commodity derivatives market profit.
Global central banks, economist, financial market analysts ignoring Dr. Warren Huang warning on Singapore, Shanghai Euroevents lecture on Asian/China Finance, Capital Market Conferences, Nov. 2003, and www.osawh.com website underestimated again on the impact of US dollar depreciation, excessive rate, tax cuts resulted soaring consumer housing, auto, business demand, soaring oil, commodities, metals asset prices bubble reaching 23 year high and inflation. facing credit tightening, rate hikes , suffered trillion dollar loss in bond and stock markets and trillion dollar profits in oil, commodity futures investments, predicted , warned by
Global Economy and Financial Markets Asset Prices Mechanism   Simulation /Forecasts through
Dr. Huang's when you have two OSA master hands you are in good hands accurately predicted on Euroevents Singapore, Shanghai, Beijin Asian/China Finance, Capital Markets Conference Nov. 2003 that US and China underestimated execessive US rate, tax cuts, dollar plunged 30 % and soaring China consumer demand, FDI will push oil commodities, metal prices hit 23 year high early 2004 push US, China inflation to 3. % US 10 year bond yield up 1.2 % to 4.8 % resulted 380 billion dollar loss and series rate hike after May 2004, Global high tech stocks make 30- 50 % correction, Nasdaq testing 1850., Dow test 9750,
OSA for global central banks macro-economic control , prices stability and capital market prices simulation, forecasts , value investing strategy, mutual fund optimal asset allocation equities, bond, currency investment, portfolio management, wealth management, risk hedging tracking/forecasts month ahead the root causes, onset, spread, recovery of Asian/Global financial crisis, asset bubble bursts lecture to 24 global central bank governors, wealth management, financial market risk management conferences and millions global central banks, banking, finance, corporate CEO, executives on this website since 1998  . Over 30 million China, Taiwan, Asian, US , ASEAN, European executives, investors on TV, radio programs and thousands workshops , wrote thousands article on Taiwan investment journal and TV 4 million visitors,tracking Taiwan's electronics, oil, petrochemical, finance stock since 1984 tracking his last 20 years results predicted China 1994-96 macroeconomic control, softlanding and to 20 global central banks governor conference, 1999-2000 on 2000 IT bubble burst plunge 70- 90 % and mutual fund bubble burst and US global banking, old economy blue chips , Buffet Berkshire, big cap value stocks mutual fund plunged 50- 70 % July 2001 to Beijin China Peoples Bank executives and on this website and predicted US and global stocks bull markets rally March 2003 Dow Jones from 7300 to 10,000, Nasdaq from 1200 to 2200 Japan Nikkei rebound from 7500 to 12000, , emerging market Taiwan, India, Russia index almost double and index mutual fund 80 % 2003 March rebound on Kuala Lumpur Asset Securitization conference Oct. 2002 to 50 central bank, banking, finance, executives Sep , 2002

Dr. Warren Huang CV accurately predicted Nov. 5, 2003 in Singapore ,Shanghai Euro-events conferencesSingapore http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/ photos 1, 2, 3 lecture ppt , Shanghai, Beijin Nov. 2003 Asian/China finance, capital Markets conferences, www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm picture 2 and to China economists meeting Fudan University, Shanghai , Dec. over 2000 QFII/QDII executives, May 8, 15, 2004 to US Silicon Valley investors, radio station , and www.osawh.com website that excessive rate and tax cuts resulted manufacturing and consumer demand pushing US Oil prices soared above 50, metals prices reaching 23 year high, will follow economic recovery and not transitory . weak dollar due to soaring trade deficit, ( 55.3 billion for June, 50 for July ) will drive inflation up 5 %, bond market slump in May 2004 job creation, productivity, profit growth peaking out in the second quarter 2004 Fed June, Aug , Sept 0.25 % rate hikes China credit tightening, will follow US rate hike in summer 2004, global economy facing inflationary slowdown and followed by stagflation next year with stocks entering bear market consolidation, with 30- 50 % correction Global IPO will facing 30-50 % correction as Google will plunged from 135 to 60-80, any attempt using IPO to speculate market rebound will be followed by sell off bear trap , avoided trillion dollar bond, equities, derivative market loss made trillion dollar oil, commodity derivatives market profit.
China ADR shares prices OSA, asset bubble earning warning,
China Macroeconomic control tracking, forecasts: China started second phase credit tightening, rate hike series begin.
China finally raised prime rate by 0.27, to cool off the asset bubble, with structural rate hike, floating loan upper limit from 5.6- 12.5 %, Oct. 28, 2004, accurately predicted by Dr. Huang last Nov. 2003 in Euro-events Singapore, Shanghai, Beijing, Asian/China finance, capital market conference and May 8, 15, 2004 to San Francisco Silicon Valley Finance radio and Global Finance Forum, Hi tech investment seminar, Silicon Valley and on this website, visited by million global central banks, banking, finance, corporate executives.
Global central banks ignoring Dr. Huang's warning on this website and global conferences, underestimated global economic recovery resulted inflation, demand for housing, manufacturing, auto pushed oil, metal prices to new high and rising cost, prices to 5000 upstream /downstream raw materials, products resulted US Fed raising rate , too little, too late, China delaying rate hike to effectively cut market demand led to China Sept. CPI inflation up 5.2 % again and third quarter GDP growth still at 9.1 % due to increasing   business ( up 28 %)and consumer demand up 14 % ,will facing soaring inflation from current 5.3 % to 6.6 % in winter peaking holiday demand season .   Despite China Peoples Bank raised deposit ratio by 1.5 % and cutting capital investment in steel, cement, aluminum, auto loan lead to some progress macroeconomic control with Sept. money supply growth at 13.6 % (below 17 % target), auto sales up only 10 %, asset prices, inflation followed soaring oil price to 55, all time high metal prices   coastal cities Beijin, Shanghai GDP up 14 %) from year ago, wealth effect, FDI drive Aug national housing prices up 14.8 % ( 2750 ) and 28 %for coastal cities Shanghai, Ninbo, Sept. retail sale up 13.2, China third quarter GDP up 9.1 % far above 7 % target, medium, long term loan up 28.4 % repeat 1994, call the need for interest rate hike   to cool off the consumer and housing demand in winter holiday peak season . soaring China steel, cement, aluminum investment (over 120 %), coal, energy shortage, stocks prices recent rebound from 1250 to 1470 speculating over Premier's statement over stock market stability is overheated ( accurately predicted by Dr. Huang on this website and already retreat to 1300)) market is over, continue bear market technical rebound ( within 20 % and consolidation, with Shanghai A testing 1250- 1500, IPO and newly listed small cap shares plunge 30-50 % with most testing its IPO price, low prices blue chips shares like Sinopec, Unicom will lead future rebound 20 %. , This supply side tightening are insufficient to cool the uneven economic overheating, as China raised key interest rate by 0.27 % and implement structural rate hikes in late Oct. as predicted by Dr. Haung to cut off excessive consumer , business demand in housing, construction materials, auto and retails demand . to cool off soaring housing and metals prices, and serious energy , electricity , coal shortage, and transportation, communication bottleneck and further delay soft landing into second half . 2005, as China Peoples Bank will cut money supply growth below 10 % and GDP below 8 %. He also predicted Oct. 1994 to China Wuhan securities news, Wangguo, Kuotai securities investors, Beijin China Financial Times, China macroeconomic control will be soft-landing 1996, Shanghai A will be traded between 600- 800 during 1994- 1996 He recommended that China stocks will be very attractive to QFII in the new Millennium
Global central banks, economist, financial market , industrial sectors analysts, CEO ignoring ,Dr. Huang photo warning to ECB, JP Morgan in Rome, China Peoples Bank governor Dai central bank governors conference in Macao, Taiwan central bank governor Asian Pacific conference Taipei, APEC finance Thailand prime minister, ASEAN central bank governors conferences in Bangkok, US Fed governors , Washington Area, NASD finance conferences 1998-2000 on IT asset bubble bursts
US macroeconomic, inflation control tracking, forecasts: Dr. Huang spoke to Euro-events Singapore , Shanghai, Beijin Nov. 2003 Asian/China Finance, Capital Markets conferences lecture to 2000 QFII, QDII mutual fund managers and China Economist annual meeting Dec. 20 and San Francisco Silicon Valley finance radio and global finance investment seminar May7, 8, 15,2004 and   www.osawh.com website warning global central banks excessive rate, tax cuts, ignoring Dr. Huang's warning on this website and global conferences, underestimated global economic recovery resulted inflation, excessive demand for housing, manufacturing, auto pushed oil, metal constructional materials prices to new high and rising cost, prices to 5000 upstream /downstream raw materials, products due to US excessive rate, tax cuts, Fed raising rate , too little, too late , China delaying rate hike to effectively cut market demand led to China Sept. CPI inflation up 5.2 % again and third quarter GDP growth still at 9.1 % due to increasing   business ( up 28 %)and consumer demand up 14 % ,will facing soaring inflation from current 5.3 % to 6.6 %, US will facing inflation soared to 5 % in winter peaking holiday demand season . US, global economists, market analysts over optimistic over the business and consumer spending twin growth engine will drive second half 2004 economic recovery, profit growth, bull market rally, Oct job creation of 337000, will repeating March , peaking out as entering peak holiday season, underestimated on the impact of US dollar depreciation, excessive rate, tax cuts , 46 trillion dollar housing, equities wealth effect resulted excessive consumer, business demand, NAPM peaking out in the second quarter at 66 ( already plunged to 56 as predicted ) driving soaring oil, commodities, metals asset prices bubble reaching 23 year high in March, May and extending into the rest of 2004. US trade deficit soared to 51- 55 billion and inflation, facing credit tightening, rate hikes after May, Aug. Sept , Nov 2004, profit , productivity growth , consumer confidence , business spending, peaking out, economic leading indicators declined for 6 months ,business facing profit squeeze in second half 2004, Job creation peaking out at March 370,000, May 230,000, June 80,000, July only 32,000 , despite Aug 112,000, Oct 337,000 stock prices peaking out in the Dec. 2003 and second quarter 2004 China and US, Global stocks bull markets are over, entering bear market consolidation.   US High tech, finance, housing, retails, auto share will give up all its 2004 gain plunge 30-50 % and trillion dollar loss in bond and stock markets repeating 1995 and 2000 and trillion dollar profits in oil, commodity futures investments
US inflation rate at 3.2 % in Aug., with business spending up 10 %, consumer confidence above 100 ISM at 66 are inflationary, facing excessive inventory built up, oil, soared to 56 currently consolidate in 47-50 will cold winter will drive heating oil, and oil price rebound to 55 gas to 9.0 and metals to new high in December will drive up 20 sectors 5000 products costs and prices, inflation will be back to 3.5 % in winter, more rate hikes are on its way to cool off the economy, bond yield will return to 4.0- 4.8 %
Wall Street Market Research OSA Market Tracking, Forecasts: Global Capital Markets Asset prices tracking, forecasts:
Dr. Huang lectured to 50 European, Asian, Malaysian central banks, banking, finance executives Kuala Lumpur, Sept. 30, 2002 predicted that oil prices soared to 43, Dow Jones retest 7500 Nasdaq 1250, March 2003 on Asian Business Forum.   He lectured Nov. 2003 lectured to Euro-events Singapore http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/ photos 1, 2, 3 lecture ppt , Shanghai, Beijin Nov. Asian/China finance, capital Markets conferences, www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm2003   picture 2 and to China economists meeting Fudan University, Shanghai , Dec. over 2000 QFII/QDII executives, identify housing, equities wealth effect bubbles   month ahead, investment opportunities in China petrochemical upstream/downstream, steel, aluminum, telecommunications ADR , Shanghai A and Hong Kong H shares, mutual fund up 80 % IPO shares up 150 % and early warning for asset bubbles in oil, commodities prices reaching 23 year peak( recommended invested in future, derivatives gained 5000 %) in March 2004, will drive China CPI to 5 %, with steel, cement over-invested 170 % and energy shortage will lead to further credit tightening, accurately predicted China Peoples bank raise bank reserve ratio 0.5 % to 7.5 % open market inter-bank rate (Chibor)must stay above 3.% to remove 110 billion from the capital markets, US CPI to 5.1 %, core inflation to 2.7 % in the summer , overoptimistic over US economic recovery and job creation,( despite March strong 300,000 new jobs can not sustainable after June quarter tax rebate is over ( June job creation already down to 32,000) and inflation outlook may lead to rate hike after May and summer lead to serious bond market plunge (US lose 380 billion dollar, China lose 270 billion) housing bubble repeat 1995 bond market crash and 2000 election bubble and global IT and blue chips banking shares will peaking out in July facing and correction 2004, Market speculators using Dell 29 % profit gain to push Dell and High tech, and blue chips is premature, Dell will facing pricing cutting from HP holiday sales and general economic slowdown, Dell stock will plunge below 30, IBM test 80. Global IPO will facing 30-50 % correction as Google will plunge from 199 to 80-100, any attempt using IPO to speculate market rebound will be followed by sell off bear trap in post election bubble burst , repeating 2000. Dow will be traded 9550- 10700, Nasdaq 1750- 2100 , S&P 1000-1190, Taiwan index post election bubble burst from 7200 to 5000- 5500, Henseng 11500- 13900, Nikkei 10000- 11900, China credit tightening continue. Shanghai A 1250- 1450, Shenzhen 3000- 3450, Euro : 1.26- 1.30 , Yen 105- 110, US, Asian and European stocks follow US stocks rebound currently will gave up all this year gain China and US economic slowdown will drag global economic growth, stocks ( including IPO )facing 30-50 % bear market correction consolidation

Book Dr. Warren Huang's China/US credit tightening impact on global recovery, capital market asset prices, risk hedging 2004 second half global investment strategy workshops ( June Taipei, Shanghai, Beijin, Hong Kong tour )getting ahead of the emerging trend, capitalize on China , US rate hike impact on global economy and capital markets, while minimize credit, markets, operational risks.osawhh@citiz.net

Dr. Warren Huang lectured San Francisco Nexusdirect.net Huaxin securities Silicon Valley investors workshop on China/US rate hike, soaring oil prices impact on 2004 second half global ADR asset allocation, investment strategy, May 15, 2004 at World Journal daily news center, predicted, recommended accurately buy China Unicom, CNOOC ADR shares and US Silicon Valley high tech, biotech, as Nasdaq plunge below 1775, The Nasdaq did plunged to 1865 May 17, Monday, investors bought these share at their bottom, enjoyed 20 % profit .

======Dr. Warren Huang North American China-US TV radio interview, investment seminar Lecture =====
Dr. Huang had half hour interview by Silicon Valley Financial TV, Radio station to speak on China/US credit tightening impact on economy and high tech/biotech corporate performance, stock prices, Global ADR asset allocation and risk management. accurately predicted Dow broke 10,000, Nasdaq broke 1900 to 1850, recommended to buy CHina ADR, US high tech share completed 30- 50 % correction, downgrade India high tech share. US Nasdaq plunged to 1875, May 10, India stocks plunged 12 % May 17, recommended China ADR, oil, petrochemicals, China Unicom, soared 20 %
Global Chinese Finance Forum San Francisco Silicon Valley High Tech/Biotech Investment Seminar 2004
An excellent opportunity to meet with Dr. Warren Huang to discuss “Market Trend and Outlook for Chinese Theme Stocks in US” and CEOs from five growing public companies to learn their current projects and growth potentials.
Date: May 8, 2004 (Saturday) Time: 9:30-3:10pm Venue: Crown Plaza Hotel, 777 Bellew Drive, Milpitas Format: Presentation in Chinese and English, Booths, Q&A, Lunch

Registration and Information: Please visit www.GCFF.net

Two Master hands thousands structural dynamic simulators provide structural strategic wealth management and risk hedging, early warning; identify last 20 years bubbles, crisis month ahead, make trillion dollar hedging profit, while avoided trillion dollar markets wealth loss due to current market analysts, wealth managers following the crowd, chasing the markets.
The right master hand pinpoint the risks of overheated investor sentiments in the listed( US )and home country( monetary policy tell you when to hedge ( when every hedging fund is chasing the hot markets and afraid to hedge the put is selling for a nickel) :do not chase hot ADR stocks when they are too hot, when every analyst recommending, investors chasing (Dr. Huang warned NOV.1999 on www.sina.com that China ADR shares are too hot, speculating WTO, CPIH soared from 1 to 80 , it dropped to 15 in three days. Nasdaq index soared to 5100, Taiwan OTC stock soared to 10000, in March 2000, bubble will burst down 50 -90 % and identify the opportunities when the credit tightening impact is over( usually 3-6 month after last interest rate cut, economy, spending is cooloff, corporate earning decline is over, stocks prices plunge, fully deflated, compressed. when every analyst, investor think it's the end of the world

The left master hand will tell you month ahead, how monetary policy impact on global 20 industrial sectors 5000 supply demand, prices, and corporate stock earning, stock prices decline is over, when everybody is selling ready for turn around
Dr. Huang accurately predicted last 20 years daily US interest rate, commodities, gold, oil prices 4 month ahead and again at Euro-event Singapore, Nov. 5, 2003 Asian F inance, capital market conference on Monetary policy impact on Asian( China, Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Korea) and China economic outlook, asset prices recommended to buy Russia oils, China A, B ADR oil, petroch( PTR, SNP, CEO), steel, aluminum share and Hong Kong H shares due to soaring Russia China, demand, profits, DFI inflow,. while sell (hedging ) overheated US, Taiwan, Singapore, Korea, Japan, German stock indices and IT shares, due to price cutting. buy with caution global banking, finance stocks due to low interest rate, soaring housing, stock markets facing bubble burst
continue recommendation on China shares on China finance, capital market conference Shanghai, Nov. 25 , Beijin, Nov. 27 2003, but warned China stocks bubble on China economic society annual meeting, Fudan Univeristy, Dec. 20, 2003 bubbles in China ADR share up 50 % -80 % , IT shares drop 20 % after Dr. Huang Nov. 5 recommendation due to hurt by China Peoples Bank credit tightening in steel, cement, auto, housing will facing 20 % correction , China life IPO will give up most of its gain US rate hike by May 2004, ,US dollar stabilize ,oil prices traded 28-36, gold price peaking out , traded 380-430 as confirmed by China People's bank Jan 5 to cut the money supply growth from 2003's 18 % to 14- 15 % this year and Greenspan indicated the need for rate hike
Signup for Dr. Huang's strategic QFII/QDII global ADR workshops always predicted 3 month ahead to take advantage the market crisis, setback , while avoided trillion dollar market loss . for most recent t up date on investment strategy and risks early warning, beating the global financial markets and economists chasing the market, speculate on business, market news
reserve: Asian : Feb- March wh3928@yahoo, US/Europe : April
Dr. Warren Huang warned Jan 2000 on the website and www.sina.com that global high tech ADR bubble burst will plunge 90 %Global ADR bubble, from Eurpean, Asian to South America, Nokia, Ericson, TSMC, plunged 90 % while some US share Yahoo, AOL, JDSU, down 95 %, WCOM, GBLX bankrupcy. Dr. Huang warned again July 2001, and May 29 2002, in Beijin that US and global old and new economy stocks, ADR (banking, retail, biotech) overheated ready for bubble burst made 30- 50 % correction again, TSMC plunged from 21 to 6.5, banks stocks down 50 %
Dr. Huang has apply two master hand tracking the global daily ADR and hot stocks during the last 20 years in the boom and bust, burst provide forward looking simulation forecast, instead of speculate on the past data ( 3 month behind) resulted overbought and oversold caused trillion market loses.

Global ADR and hot stocks are full of opportunities, excitement, and risks As it provide 1000 % in return and lose 90 % of its share value in a few days. Dr. Huang warned ahead on sina.com and this website Nov. 1999 and presented to 24 US, Asian, EURO central banks, finance conferences during 1999-2000 the overheated China ADR 1999 Nov. when the financial market speculate on China WTO entry, that these share will give up all its gain( as CPIH soared from 0.5 to 80 and plunge to 14, China Qiao Xing (Xing soared from 10 to 70 plunge to 15 in 3 days, and simlarly the risks, retrun in inernet IPOs ( Hot Amazon, Qcom down 75 % after split from 800 , Value America down 95%, Japan's Softbank down 75 %, Hikari down 95 %, Taiwan Weishen down 90 %, OTC star Woshenton down 80 % after split from 900 while some share maintain its high return through high profit growth like India software com Infosys(INFY) soared from 10 to 375. China Telecom(CHL soared from 13 to 51 French cable company TMS soared from 25 to 150 and split. and give up all its gain.

US Fed and Home country Monetary Policy impact on stock prices
Global ADR, hot stock ( new and old economy) prices soared over 1000% during last quarter 1999 and first quarter 2000, as US and global monetary supply reached it's peak at 11 % for Y2K precaution pushed US Dow,Jones, to 11800, Nasdaq to 5100
. US Fed 6 interest rate hikes pushed to money supply down from 13 % to 6 %, slowdown the economy, drag Nasdaq from 5100 to 1190, ADR high tech bubble bursts, plunged 90 %
US Dow Jones, Nasdaq index,Home country stock index( Money supply growth) impact on ADR, hot stock prices:
Being the hosting country of these share, Dow, Nasdaq have strong market sentiment influence on the shares prices as it peaking out and plunge with Nasdaq Home country stock index impact on its ADR, hot stocks
As China hot stocks ADR share benefited by soaring China stock index and news on WTO, boost investor buy sentiment Indian INFY share also benefite by Index stock index rebound from 2800 to 5200, so is Japan ADR . Industrial sector Supply demand, technical management innovation, Corporate earning: impact on the ADR prices As IT, internet share benefited by products, market innovation, hurt by excessive capacity, sharp competition, falling rates, ADR share prices have much lower return high risks than other industry (like finance, retail) Prices compression in global hot and ADR shares, investment opportunities, risks:
All global ADR shares follow US stocks under prices compression to release bubble burst related overprices during 2002-2003 , and strong rebound in 3rd quarter , 2003 as Nasdaq soared 80 %, Dow up 26 % , due to US 13 rate cuts, and two tax cuts, money supply growth soared to 9 % Aug 2003 repeat 1999-2000 bubble burst.( money supply growth was 11 %) and China repeat 1997 overheated economy, money supply growth soared to 23 % (vs 18 %) due to excessive rate cuts, DFI, hot money speculation Hong Kong H shares, bubbles already appear again China IPO and US China ADR shares soared 180 % )

Global Rate Hikes Impact , Asset Prices, Bubble Simulation, Early Warning OSA 2004 yearend strategic investment/supply chain, Basel II risk control workshop

Shanghai Sept. 17-19, Taipei Sept 21- 23, Singapore Sept 25-27, Kuala Lumpur Sept 29-30 , email osawhh@citiz.net for in-house workshops reservation

(covered thousands lectures, 46 countries capital cities 30 million government, banking, finance corporate CEO, CFO, fund managers, senior executives investors since 1983 by 80 )

Speaker, Dr. Warren Huang, Pioneer, Global leader, scholar in Global Strategic Investment , Risks Management
Pioneer, two maaster hands controlling global economy, capital market asset prices, crisis, bubble early warni

Dr. Huang accurately predicted 2002-2003 that global ADR Opportunities exist near the end of stocks compression, : Nasdaq down to 1100 1300 and home country stock down 50 %, the stock prices still profitable near new low
Risks while the Nasdaq and home country stock inflated to overheated like April last 2000 Nasdaq up to 5100, and Nasdaq rebound over 50 % to 2300 in early 2002
and currently Nasdaq to 2250
Click for the following global economy and ADR pricing and investment strategy

Japan ADR EURO 11 country ADR Korea ADR China/ Hong Kong ADR Singapore ADR Indian ADR Taiwan ADR

Dr. Warren Huang accurately predicted US Fed will raise fund rate in June 1999 due to soaring stocks, properties, oil prices, which will take US stocks and Asian stock prices into minimum 15 % correction, and some internet , biotech stock with 50 -90 % corrections, Dow Jones will test 9600, Nasdaq test 2000, Henseng test 12500, Nikkei test 11,000, Taiwan index down to 4500 with asset bubble simulation models on Macao's central bank governors conference, Taipei's Pacific Basin finance conference and Washington DC NASD conferences. during April and May , June, Dec. 1999.
These deterministic, dynamic simulation of last 20 years global asset prices, and economy boom and bust of the asset bubble vicious cycle of excessive monetary policy, low interest rate induced sustained long term bull markets stocks prices gain caused consumer and business spending in real estate properties pushed soaring housing prices and rent. And deficit spending (negative saving) in stock markets, pushed the stock s even higher, until abrupt reverse of consumer and investor confidence --the bubble burst- plunge of stocks and properties prices as it happened in US, Japan, Taiwan in 1980, 1987, 1990, energy crisis, EURO 1992 currency crisis, 1994 China runaway inflation, 1995 Mexico crisis, 1997-98 ASEAN, Japan, Korea, Russia, Brazil currency crisis, all caused by overpriced stock prices due to excess monetary policy and high GDP growth
USA China Thailand Taiwan Japan Hong Kong Korea Singapore Indonesia Canada Mexico

Website : www.osawh.com email

Name	Symbols	outlook. early warning	trading range
China Mobil HK	CHL	soaring demand, credit tightening, competition	50-60
China Unicom	CHU	credit tightening, price cutting, competition, poor margin	15- 20
China Telecom	CHA	soaring demand, credit tightening, competition	57-64
China PetroChem Corp	SNP	soaring oil, rising costs, credit tightening in auto, housing	85-115
PetroChina	PTR	soaring oil, , sensitive to oil price bubble	140-175
CNOOC	CEO	soaring oil, rising costs, sensitive to oil price bubble	110-130
China Life Ins.	LFC	credit tightening, rising delinquency, default	50- 62
Alumina Corp China	ACH	credit tightening, energy shortage, soaring cost	40- 50
Shangha Luijiazui	SLUJY	credit tightening, default, peaking out in demand	12-16
GuanshenRailway	GSH	soaring demand, soaring cost , competition from bus	35- 45
Shanghai Petrochemical	SHI	soaring oil, rising costs, credit tightening in auto, housing	55-69
Baidu	bidu	soaring oil, rising costs, falling prices, margin	180-210
Jianxi copper		soaring price , costs	70- 80
Angang Steel	ANGGY	credit tightening, energy shortage, soaring cost	75- 95

Name	Symbols	outlook. early warning	trading range
Advanced Tech	ASX	price cutting, competition	4- 8
Dialog. semicon	DLGS	price cutting, competition	10- 15
Gigabyte Tech	GGBYY	credit tightening, price cutting, competition	6 - 9
Micronix Intl	MXICY	price cutting, competition	2- 3.5
Mosel Vitelic	MOSLY	price cutting, competition	1- 3
PROMOS TECH	PTIQF	price cutting, competition	3 - 6
Siliconwar precision	SPIL	price cutting, competition	4- 8
Sunplus Tech	SNPLY	price cutting, competition	3- 6
Taiwan Semicon	TSM	price cutting, competition	7-12
United Microele.	UMC	price cutting, competition	2- 4
Winbond ele.	WBEKY	price cutting, competition	4- 7

walsin Lihwa	WSLWY	price cutting, competition	3- 5
Teco Elect	TEMRY	price cutting, competition	3- 5
Quanta computer	QUCPY	price cutting, competition	10- 12
Nanya Tech	NNYAY	price cutting, competition	6-- 12
Hon Hai precision	HNHAY	price cutting, competition	8--12
Chunghwa Pict	CNWAY	price cutting, competition	10- 13

Asustek Computer	AKCPY	price cutting, competition	2- 4
China steel	CISEY	demand up,, price cutting, competition	16- 25
Fareastern Texitle	FREYY	rising costs, price cutting, competition	5- 8
First Financial Hold	FFHLY	demand up, default risks	13- 17.5
Fubon Financial	FUISY	demand up, defaults risks	8- 15

Name	Symbols	outlook. early warning	trading range
Bank East Asian	BKEAY	demand up, defaults risks price cutting	2.5- 5
Beijin Enterprises	BJINY	improved demand, credit tightening	10- 15
China resources	CHNRY	credit tightening, soaring oil price, costs	1.5- 3
Asia Satellite	SAT	demand up, competition	17- 22
BOC Hong Kong	BHKLY	credit tightening, demand up, defaults risks	35- 45
China Gas	CGHOY	demand , cost up,	45- 55
Hutchison Whampoa	HUWHY	China, credit tightening price cutting, competition	35- 45
Cathy Pacific Air	CPCAY	price cutting, competition, rising costs	8- 12
Hang seng bank	HSNGY	credit tightening, HK deflation, demand up	11-15
Cheung Kong	CHEUY	HK deflation competition, demand up	8- 12
Hutchison Telecommunication	HTX 15- 22

股名	代碼	前景預警	近期股價
儀征化纖	1033	信貸緊縮成本上揚	1.8- 2.3
重慶鋼鐵	1053	信貸緊縮成本上揚	3.6- 4.5
南方航空	1055	信貸緊縮殺價競爭東方航空	2.6 -3.5
勃海化工	1065	信貸緊縮油價成本上揚	2- 2.4
晏州煤業	1171	信貸緊縮煤價隨油價成本上揚	6- 12
中國石油天然氣	857	信貸緊縮殺價競爭油價成本上揚油價回升	3.5- 5.0
青啤	168	信貸緊縮殺價競爭	8--10
鞍鋼	347	信貸緊縮殺價競爭油價成本上揚	3- 4
江西銅業	358	信貸緊縮銅價上揚	3.5- 5.5
廣深鐵路	525	信貸緊縮殺價競爭油價成本上揚	2- 2.5
上海石化	338	信貸緊縮油價成本上揚	3.2- 4.0
燕京石化	325	信貸緊縮油價成本上揚單價滑落	2.2- 3.6
東方航空	670	信貸緊縮殺價競爭油價成本上揚	1.2- 1.6
鎮海煉化	1128	信貸緊縮殺價競爭油價成本上揚	6- 9

東方電機	1072	信貸緊縮油價成本上揚	2.7- 3.7
洛陽玻璃	1108	信貸緊縮油價成本上揚	1.1- 1.3
中海發展	1138	信貸緊縮	4.5- 6.5
慶鈴汽車	1128	信貸緊縮殺價競爭	1.3- 1.6

Name	Symbols	outlook. early warning	trading range
Infosys	INFY	increasing demand for software outsourcing	70- 100
HDF Bank	HDFC	increasing loan demand	25- 35-
Indian Petrochem	IPCGP	soaring feedstock cost, demand,	10- 15
Reliance Industries	RILYP	soaring cost, demand	20- 25

Name	Symbols	outlook. early warning	trading range
Yukos	YUKOY	STRONG GLOBAL DEMAND, oil prices swing, tax fraud	10- 20
LUKOIL	LUKOY	STRONG GLOBAL DEMAND, oil prices swing	80- 110

Name	Symbols	outlook. early warning	trading range
DBS Group holding	DBSDY	slow Singapore recovery	30-40
Chartered Semiconductor	CHRT	PRICE CUTTING, COMPETITION	9-12