Optimal ECB proactive structural monetary policy trilemma ( Growth, Inflation, Capital Market Asset Prices, Currency) solution by
Optimal Proactive, Structural Simulation of  ECB Monetary Policy, achieving sustainable GDP and Capital Market Growth, and , Currency, CPI Price stability without  Inflation, Asset Prices bubble OSA( Operations Simulation Analysis ) Performance Guidance and Control: 
Optimal  policy trilemma strategic solution workshop
 
30 years global financial , currency, asset bubble burst financial crisis simulation indicating that high GDP, Capital Markets and Housing Markets Growth, free float/peg  currency are not, should and can not  be sustainable and it is  inflationary, will  repeating eventual financial crisis, asset bubbles burst with or without central bank macro-economical control,  even inflation stay below 3 %. Only these integrated proactive structural economic systems n achieve GDP, capital markets growth, currency, price  stability

UK and Spain facing serious housing price bubble prices bubble burst , housing price slump in 2008,drag economy into recession due to rising interest rates, stock markets bear market correction 
E. European countries housing bubble burst due to loan tie into S. France facing rising interest rate, currency appreciation credit tightening due to
stock markets correction.

Proactive Structural Dynamic Simulation of ECB, UK  Optimal Monetary ,Economic, Fiscal Policy Impact on Inflation, interest rates, unemployment, GDP, Assets (Stocks, Bond, Housing, Commodity) Prices Bubbles Identification, inflation, deflation, burst, recovery, early warning , performance guidance and Control in  achieving optimal growth and price stability
 The What, Why, How and  timing  in  central banking Optimal Predictive Monetary Policy: Integrated Macro economic Control, imbalance, Systemic Risks, Impact on  20 industrial sectors demand, supply, prices   and Capital markets Asset Prices market forces mechanism and Systemic Risks Stress Testing Early Warning System achieve Sustainable Growth and Prices Stability

Proactive structural  global macro economic inflation, interest rates OSA forecast 3 years, month ahead, US/China contractionary /expansionary monetary policy in GDP/ inflation, currency  targeting, control tracking. predicted 2003 that US housing bubble burst 2006 and 2007 sub-prime default drag US dollar and stock market for correction,
  Dr. Warren Huang  who pioneered proactive structural demand side oil price mechanism simulation on US Oil & Gas Journal 1983,  circulated  million copies to 80 countries, accurately predicted oil price from 9 to 110 　. He predicted 2005 on China
Oil Markets Conference workshop, Beijin to multinational oil, QFII CEO, executives that oil prices soared to 80 , due to increasing demand from China/US   global housing, auto, construction materials and transportation, dragged by  US housing market weakness, oil price will be supported by final leg of dollar plunge against Yen, and inflation, seasonal demand in gasoline, heating oil and global housing, constructional materials, metals energy consumption. it peaking out summer gasoline demand at  80, Fed 300 points rate cuts, economic stimulus package, 200 billion cash injection led to Yen plunge to 95-100-105, and EURO to 1.55-1.66 ,driving up consumer,  business demand and oil price to 90- 115 , supporting  spring summer driving peak demand in 2008 through economic stimulus, tax cuts

However strong EURO will cut EMU export and GDP growth within 6 months to cool off overheated housing, equities asset bubbles.
Hundred thousands integrated, proactive global  structural, dynamics, deterministic proprietary Capital Market Asset Prices Models (CAPM) simulators first time  shown on this website the  most reliable  optimal monetary policy trilemma solution,   integrating money supply, interest rate, inflation , currency into capital market asset prices bubbles ( global stock indices) OSA simulation charts 
1.Global Finance, Capital Markets Asset Prices Modeling (CAPM) Simulation/Forecasts months ahead of emerging market trend
A. Pricing forecasts for securities, futures, derivatives tracking real time EURO-US, global financial markets integration and interaction
OSA Simulation Charts tracking forecasts 1-3 month ahead monetary policy on last 20 years daily
 Consumer spending, Fed Fund rate, Dollar Yen exchange rate impact on Dow Jones Index
 Japan money supply growth, Yen exchange rate, Dow Jones impact on Tokyo Nikkei index
 EU  money supply growth, EURO exchange rate, Dow Jones impact on German DAX index
 Hong Kong money supply growth,  inter-bank rate, Dow Jones impact on  Henseng index have been developed, implemented supporting the following  goal, mission, performance oriented  outsourcing strategic centers corporate/ memberships/ workshops

Dr. Warren Huang, pioneer of proactive structural global monetary policy presented to China Peoples bank governor sponsored Asian central bank governors, US Fed Chicago, Ohio governor, ECB, UK, Taiwan  24 global central bank governors policy and risks management conferences  
Macroeconomic OSA  Financial Economics OSA   Industrial Economics OSA      Trade Economics OSA
inflation, GDP,             Capital Market prices              industrial sectors demand          commodity ,products
unemployment             Currency, interest rates           supply, commodity, asset         import/export prices
consumer spending      prices bubble mechanism         global currency prices

Regional economics
regional growth, over-
heating housing  construction
materials prices bubbles
bursts 
Meeting  ECB/UK  policy trilemma  GDP, capital market growth,  inflation, currency, price stability , goals:

OSA founder Dr. Warren Huang CV Picture of  Dr. Warren Huang speaking pioneering experiences in development, implementation financial engineering theory of two master hands controlling global macro economic control, growth, prices stability  and daily financial capital market assets( stocks, bond, housing, commodities)  prices:  Thousand proactive structural dynamic simulation forecasts month, years  ahead  of  macroeconomic  control, monetary economic, fiscal, WTO policy impact on last 20 years  China/global GDP, employment, inflation and   daily EMU and global cross border capital markets interest rates, currency, bond, commodity,  industrial sectors  demand, prices,  stock prices  market forces mechanism forecast supporting ECB 12 members convergence, integration into EMU and 10 E. European countries convergence, integration into 12 member  EMU  US, China, Taiwan, Asian  government, banking, finance, multinational, state and  medium, small enterprises  reform, venture capital investment banking, tracking the causes, onset, recovery, early warning for  global financial, currency, asset bubbles burst crisis, Basel II credit, market., operations risks  management early warning. With correlation constant over 0.95, average error below 1.5 %, He has been invited to speak  post EURO banking, finance integration conference, in Rome 1998 (by JP Morgan ) on European cross border banking, finance integration and dynamic simulation of the  causes, onset, recovery, early warning of European financial crisis,  and  Global financial crisis early warning to  US,   China, Asian 24 global central bank governors, financial risks management, oil, financial futures, derivatives conferences.

visit www.ecb.int for daily European Central Bank Operations and Decision Making.
 
EU enlargement and the Euro

On 1 May 2004 ten new Member States joined the European Union – the Czech Republic, Estonia, Cyprus, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, Malta, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia.

Joining the euro area

The new countries will adopt the euro only when they fulfill certain economic criteria, namely, a high degree of price stability, a sound fiscal situation, stable exchange rates and converged long-term interest rates. The current euro area members had to fulfill the same criteria. 

Convergence reports

The European Central Bank contributes to the decision-making on future euro area members by preparing convergence reports in which it analyses whether the countries concerned fulfill  the necessary conditions for adoption of the euro.

Global Strategic Management    ECB/ Global central banks Monetary policy, prices stability OSA  forecasts, mission control  tracking/forecast the
   OSA     cause, onset, recovery of   European/ global financial crisis, bubble burst early warning, achieve sustainable  growth  and                              and  prices stability in crisis 
www.osawh.com                           About OSA  Products & Services   Nobel Prize dream workshops VIP/Corporate membership
                                                                    By Dr. Warren Huang  /pioneer OSA     wh3928@yahoo.com            (Right master hand)  ====================================================================================
Structural, dynamic Predictive Global Central Banks Monetary Policy for Sustainable Growth and Asset Prices Stability Guidance and Control: 
Policy Impact Simulation  Beat capital, money, insurance, property prices  Workshops

1. China/ECB/US Macroeconomic control tracking, forecasts: China started second phase credit tightening, rate hike series continue into 2006
   As predicted by Dr. Warren Huang at Nov 2005 Beijin China Oil Market conference that soaring housing, auto demand pushing oil prices to 80 in summer, China Peoples Bank will raise interest rate to cool off the excessive fixed demand ( at 30 % groath)
   China finally raised prime rate by 0.27 % Apr. 28, 2006  to cool off the asset bubble, repeating  structural rate hike, floating loan upper limit from  5.6- 12.5 %, Oct. 28, 2004,  and again Apr. 28, 2006 accurately  predicted by  Dr. Huang last Nov. 2003 in Euro-events Singapore, Shanghai, Beijing, Asian/China finance, capital market conference and May 8, 15, 2004 to San Francisco Silicon Valley Finance radio and Global Finance Forum, Hi tech investment seminar, Silicon Valley and on this website, visited by million global central banks, banking, finance, corporate executives.
   US and global( except(  ECB)  central banks ignoring Dr. Huang's warning on this website and global conferences, underestimated global economic recovery resulted inflation, demand for housing, manufacturing, auto pushed oil, metal prices to new high and rising cost, prices to 5000 upstream /downstream raw materials, products resulted US Fed raising rate , too little, too late, China delaying  rate hike to effectively cut market demand led to China Sept.  CPI inflation up 5.2 %  in 2004 , despite it drop to 1.2 % Jan 2005 and soaring stock prices and housing wealth let to  excessive demand in housing, auto ( up 78 %) , inflation back to 3.9 % in March, first quarter 2006 GDP 10.2 %a  business ( up  30 % driving oil price to 75, gold prices to 735, silver to 1350 in Apr. 2006 and heating ECB inflation to 2.4 % (exceeds 2 % ) target .  
   US/ECB  macroeconomic, inflation control  tracking, forecasts: Dr. Huang spoke to Euro-events Singapore , Shanghai, Beijin Nov.  2003  Asian/China Finance, Capital Markets conferences lecture to 2000 QFII, QDII mutual fund managers and  China Economist annual meeting Dec. 20 and San Francisco Silicon Valley finance radio and global finance investment seminar May7,  8, 15,2004 and   www.osawh.com   website  warning  global central banks excessive rate, tax cuts, ignoring Dr. Huang's warning on this website and global conferences, since 2003  through  2006 , from Greenspan to Bernanke all underestimated global economic recovery resulted inflation,  excessive consumer, business demand for housing, manufacturing, auto pushed oil to 75, , metal constructional materials prices to 26 year high and rising cost, prices to 5000 upstream /downstream raw materials, products  due to US  excessive rate, tax cuts, Fed raising rate , too little, too late , 
   US CPI at  3.6  % ,whole sale price up 5.3 %   with business  spending up 16 %, consumer confidence above 108 ISM at 66 are inflationary, facing excessive inventory built up,  oil soared to  75 currently consolidate in  65- 74 r, However summer holiday ( memorial day and , July 4 th) demand  ahead will drive heating oil,  and oil price  challenge 80 , and metals to  new high  this year will drive up 20 sectors raw materials 5000 products costs and prices, inflation will be back to 3.5 %
   ECB suffered by excessive  China/US and global consumer, business demand reuslted soaring oil, metal ,housiong , stockts, bond asste prices and inflation, must raise rates to 3.25 %  ahead to cool off summer  inflation to below 2 % , achieve prices stability
    ,
   Wall Street Market Research OSA Market Tracking, Forecasts: Global Capital Markets Asset prices tracking, forecasts:
   Dr. Huang   lectured Nov. 2003 lectured to Euro-events Singapore http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/ photos 1, 2, 3 lecture ppt  , Shanghai, Beijin . atAs ian/China finance, capital Markets conferences,  www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm2003   picture  2  and to China economists meeting Fudan University, Shanghai , Dec. over 2000 QFII/QDII executives, identify housing, equities wealth effect bubbles   month ahead, investment opportunities in China petrochemical upstream/downstream, steel, aluminum, telecommunications ADR , Shanghai A and Hong Kong H shares, mutual fund up 80 %  IPO shares up 150 % and early warning for asset bubbles in oil, commodities prices reaching 23  year peak( recommended invested in future, derivatives gained 5000 %) in March 2004, will drive China CPI to 5 %, with steel, cement over-invested 170 % and energy shortage will lead to further credit tightening, accurately predicted China Peoples bank raise bank reserve ratio 0.5 % to 7.5 % open market inter-bank rate (Chibor)must stay above 3.% to remove 110 billion from the capital markets,  US CPI to 5.1 %, core inflation to 2.7 % in the summer , overoptimistic over US economic recovery and job creation,( despite March strong 300,000  new jobs can not sustainable after June quarter tax rebate is over ( June job creation already down to 32,000) and  inflation outlook may lead to rate hike after May and summer lead to serious bond market plunge (US lose  380 billion dollar, China lose 270 billion) housing bubble repeat 1995 bond market crash and 2000 election bubble and global IT and blue chips banking shares facing and correction 2004, Market speculators using Oil prices plunged from 55 to 40 and back to 50, and Intel profit decline, over-optimistic outlook, Apple profit up 70 % due to i-Pod new product innovation Dell 29 % profit gain to push Dell and High tech, and  IBM PC sale to China, Oracle PeopleSoft 10 billion dollar merger facing margin squeeze and Sprint Nextel 35 billion dollar merger all facing sharp competition, to speculate blue chips and Nasdaq will give up all its recent gain is premature ,oil price already rebound to 45 will retest 50 due to OPEC one million production cut and winter peak demand,  Dell will facing pricing cutting from HP, Apple  holiday  sales and general economic slowdown, Dell stock will plunge below 35, IBM test 85. Global IPO  will facing 30-50 % correction  as Google will plunge from 199 to 80-100, any attempt using IPO to speculate market rebound will be followed by sell off bear trap  in post election bubble burst , repeating 2000. Dow will be traded 9550- 10700, Nasdaq  1750- 2100 , S&P 1060-1190,  Taiwan index post election bubble burst from 7200 to  5000- 5500, Henseng 11500- 13900, Nikkei 10000- 11900, China credit tightening continue. Shanghai A 1150- 1350, Shenzhen 2750- 3150, Euro : 1.28- 1.35 , Yen 100-105,  US, Asian and European stocks  follow US stocks  rebound currently will gave up all this year gain  China and US economic slowdown will drag global economic growth, stocks  ( including IPO )facing  30-50 % bear market  correction consolidation   
   
   UK, ECB Monetary Policy impact on UK,  25  member countries currency, stocks  Prices
   Dr. Huang predicted  in July 2001 in Beijin, and Sept. 30 2002 in Kuala Lumpur conference that 12 member EURO countries stock indices DAX, CAC, Zurich,  down 50  % from it's April   2000 peak, follow US Dow and Nasdaq  slump stock plunge due to sales, earning decline warning US EURO slowdown  cutting old and new economy sales and profit margin AUTO industry: Benz Daimler-Chrysler warned analysts on overoptimistic project of   second half earning, sales, stock plunged from 90 to 45, Internet wireless Industry Ericsson plunge into loss  made similar disappointing  news, stock plunge   Nokia and Deutsch Telecom  , stock plunged  from 56 to  15( as predicted by Dr Huang    Deutsch Bank loan and security income decline, stock plunge to 40
   Despite US strong recovery third quarter 2003 and 2004  supported by tax, rate cuts will not be sustainable and inflationary, already pushed oil prices to 50- 55, metal prices reaching 23 year high, US FED 5 rate hikes
   UK already raised its rate to 4.95 %  cut it's money supply growth  to 8.6 %  concern on inflation rate due to soaring oil, commodity and housing prices  and  consumer spending and corporate sales, earning, while ECB rate stay at 2 % due to strategy EURO resulted export slowdown and inflation stay below 2 %
   UK  Economy and London Financial Times Index China and Asian recovery and strong US, EURO demand lead to soaring oil , commodity, housing prices pushed UK and overheated housing prices due to the expansionary money supply growth at 11 %, and low interest rate at  3.6 % 2003, resulted  soaring properties, stock prices stocks up 30 % GDP  at 4.5 %  UK  raised interest rate  to 4.9 %  to fight asset and housing bubbles inflation
   Soaring oil , commodity prices, import led to UK 10 billion trade deficit in Nov. 2004 , due to soaring oil prices to 50, rising interest rate pushed  pound to 1.85-1.89, hurt corporate profit. stock prices  London Financial Times  Index will follow Dow Jones  consolidation ,LFT will be in the range  5600- 6300
   United Kingdom ADR shares prices OSA,  asset bubble earning warning,

   Name	Symbols	outlook.  early warning	trading range
   Barclay	BCS	defaults risks rate hikes, demand slowdown	36- 55
   British Airway	BAB	improved demand, soaring oil price ,credit tightening	40- 65
   Cambridge Antibody	CATG	competition, new drug	12- 24
   GlaxoSmithKline	GSK	demand up,  competition	42-- 50
   HSBC	HBC	credit tightening, demand slowdown, defaults risks	80- 99
   Rolls Royce	RYCEY	demand slowdown, cost up, competition	13- 18
   Unilever	UL	credit tightening price cutting, competition	35- 45
   Vodfone	VOD	price cutting, competition	18-25
   BP	BP	credit tightening, oil price,demand peaking	60- 77

    German Economy and DAX Stock Index : Asian recovery and strong China, US, EURO demand lead to soaring oil prices , EMU benefited by strong EURO and Mark, inflation below 2.4 %% despite expansionary money supply growth at 6 %, and low interest rate a 2 % to reduce unemployment rate.  while US Fed  5 fund rate hikes to 2.25 %, and  strong EURO drag GDP to 1.3 %   , However  widening German trade surplus  at 16 billion boosted EURO to 1.36 and German Mark to new high early this year cutting into export and  production up only 1.5 % and flat, retails sales, corporate profit.     Despite recent   US , China demand and Asian economic recovery boost German economy,  in the second half 2003 and  2004  German  stock is benefited by US, global stock rebound   German Dax Stock index   followed  Nasdaq up 70 % from 2600 to 4300 are excessive, will face correction to 5500- 5900 as China credit tightening, US rate hikes resulted slowdown in the early 2005 and  hurt by strong, Mark, Euro.
   German ADR shares
    German  ADR shares prices OSA,  asset bubble earning warning,

   Name	Symbols	outlook.  early warning	trading range
   Allianz	AZ	price cutting, competition, market risks	10- 15
   Addidas	ADDDY	price cutting, competition	45- 60
   BASF AG	BF	soaring oil price, costs, price cutting,	40--60
   Bayer AG	BAY	price cutting, competition	24-- 30
   Deutsch Bank	DB	Hi unemployment, global slowdown, high default	60-80
   Deutsch Telecom	DT	price cutting, competition	16-  22
   InfIneon	IFX	price cutting, competition	9- 14-
   SAP	SAP	price cutting, competition	35- 45
   Schering	SHR	price cutting, competition	45-45
   Siemens	SI	price cutting, competition, demand up	75- 85
   Volkswagons	VLKPY	price cutting, competition	5- 8

   France Economy and Paris s CAC Stock Index : Asian recovery and strong China, US, EURO demand lead to soaring oil prices , EMU benefited by strong EURO and Mark, inflation below 2.4 %% despite expansionary money supply growth at 6 %, and low interest rate a 2 % to reduce unemployment rate.  while US Fed  5 fund rate hikes to 2.25 %, and  strong EURO drag GDP to 1.3 %   , However  widening German trade surplus  at 16 billion boosted EURO to 1.36 and German Mark to new high early this year cutting into export and  production up only 1.5 % and flat, retails sales, corporate profit.     Despite recent   US , China demand and Asian economic recovery boost German economy,  in the second half 2003 and  2004  German  stock is benefited by US, global stock rebound   German Dax Stock index   followed  Nasdaq up 70 % from 2600 to 4300 are excessive, will face correction to 3800--4300 as China credit tightening, US rate hikes resulted slowdown in the early 2005 and  hurt by strong  Euro and Franc
    France suffered  500 million  trade deficit  due to soaring oil prices, import. However EMU  15 billion trade surplus and soaring  US trade deficit at 55 billion will  support strong F. France and EURO
    French  stock is getting out of  corporate scandal (Vivendi) and following US stock market correction, strong currency, falling prices, profits  slowdown  The high France unemployment rate at  9,9 %, will leave room for France money supply growth a will follow US recover gradually.   Paris   CAC  follow Nasdaq up 50 % is excessive, facing correction,  traded in the range 3500-3900   
   Swiss Economy, and Stock Index :    The low unemployment rate at 3.7 %,  and inflation at 2.0 % will  push for expansionary  money supply and  0.65 % low  interest rate  ,  stocks and loan demand rebound pushed banking finance stocks up 50  % UBS will be test 50-62 recovery boosted , strong EURO and S. Fr drag Swiss GDP to 1.6 % . Soaring oil prices, strong currency  cutting into Swiss trade surplus, will be traded between 1.13- 1.21    Swiss Zurich  Stock index to follow Dow Jones,  facing correction, Zurich index  will be in the range 7000-7900
   Italy Economy and BCI stock index: Asian   recovery and strong China, US, EURO demand lead to soaring oil prices cutting into Italy trade surplus, strong EURO drag  Italy GDP to 1.3 %, industrial production, retail sales decline and inflation  at 2.3  % despite  EURO expansionary money supply growth at 6 %, and low interest rate at  2 % The high unemployment rate at  8.1  %, will leave room for Italy money supply growth and lower interest rate , soaring oil prices lead to shrinking trade surplus  EURO traded  between  1.30-1.40.  US recovery will gradually pulling Italy  GDP to 1.5 %, However, strong Euro drag Italy  industrial production and retail sales  into  recession,    Italy stock index will be   traded between 1350-1490
    Italy  ADR shares prices OSA,  asset bubble earning warning,

   Name	Symbols	outlook.  early warning	trading range
   Benetton	BNG	price cutting, competition	22- 29
   ENI	E	Oil price peaking out	80- 110
   FIAT	FIA	price cutting, competition	6,5-- 9.0
   Telecom Italian	TI	price cutting, competition	30-  35

   Spain  Economy and Madrid  stock index: Asian recovery and strong China, US, EURO demand lead to soaring oil prices pushed   inflation  at  3.0  % due to   EURO expansionary money supply growth at 6 %, and low interest rate at  2 % The high unemployment rate at  10 %, will leave room for money supply growth and lower interest rate, but housing sector already overheated for credit tightening .  US, China, Asian , EURO slowdown and strong EURO this year  will  drag  GDP to 2.2 % and  industrial production and retail sales facing decline. Spain stock index will be   traded  between  800-960
   Sweden Economy and Stockholm Stock Index Asian recovery and strong China,  US, EURO demand lead to soaring oil prices pushed  Sweden GDP to 3.9 %, However, strong EURO cut inflation to 0.5  %   unemployment rate at  4.5 %    
   Sweden trade surplus. , industrial production, retails sales continue benefited by US EURO, Asian recovery  GDP to 3.8  %    Swedish Stockholm stock index will be traded between 195- 229
   Belgium Economy and  stock index  Asian recovery and strong China, US, EURO demand lead to soaring oil prices , however, strong EURO kept inflation is   at  2.2  % due to the expansionary money supply growth  , and low interest rate at 2.4 % , The high unemployment rate at 13.5 %, will leave room for Belgium money supply growth and lower interest rate.    Belgium trade surplus  benefited by EURO, Asian,  US recovery boosted Belgium  industrial production, however retail sales facing decline.   stock index will be benefited by lower interest rates, buy on any markets setback. it will be traded between  2511 and  2950
   Holland Economy and stock index : Asian recovery and strong China, US, EURO demand lead to soaring oil prices s and strong EURO led to  inflation is  at   1.3 %  due to the expansionary money supply growth at 5.8 %, and low interest rate at  2 %   unemployment rate at  6.3 % , EURO, US recovery will pulling Holland  industrial production, retail sales , but hurting by soaring oil , metal prices, drag GDP to 1.5 %  The  stock index  will be traded between 310-365
   Denmark Economy and Stock Index Asian recovery and strong US, EURO demand lead to soaring oil prices, strong EURO pushed  inflation is  at  1.6 %    The low unemployment rate at   6 %  Soaring oil prices cutting into trade surplus,  US recovery will gradually pulling Denmark  GDP  out of recession  at 1.9, stock index hurt by strong EURO it will be traded between  250-270

2. EURO stock prices and monetary policy impact on consumer and business spending.
   Due to soaring oil , commodity prices, rising inflation near 2 %,ECB intended to reduce it's money supply growth from overheated 8 % to 5.5 % due to stocks rally related wealth effect pushed inflation to 2.1 % (3.3 % in Spain, 2.4 in France) which will cutting consumer spending and corporate sales, earning
    
3. EURO stock prices, monetary policy impact on housing properties prices and rent
   EURO housing properties prices down from 1990 peak  , it plunge  50 % in 1997 Asian financial crisis, but follow stocks rally  rebound 20 % in 2000 and further overheated  by rate cut since 2003, stocks up more than 50 % resulted wealth effect already led to soaring housing bubble, UK raise rate to fight bubbles. will facing credit tightening  this year, will lead to strong EURO, which will hurt export and corporate profit, ECB will give up its strong EURO policy credit easing, follow US in future rate hike, EURO will be traded 1.18-1.26

   EURO currency :, Benefited by weak demand, import, expanded export resulted 9 billion trade surplus , soared , rate hike further pushed EURO to 1.29 earlier last year cutting into EURO export, and soaring EURO trade surplus and US trade deficit despite  US rate hike led to strong EURO soared to 1.36 it will have overhead resistance around 1.40 ( ECB will leave rate unchange to take the pressure of EURO)., trade between 1.28-1.40

Book Dr. Warren Huang's  China/US credit tightening impact on global recovery, capital market asset prices, risk  hedging 2004 second half  global investment strategy workshops (  June Taipei, Shanghai, Beijin, Hong Kong tour )getting ahead of the emerging trend, capitalize on China credit tightening, US rate hike impact on global economy and capital markets, while minimize credit, markets, operational risks.
=========Dr. Warren Huang  North American China-US  TV radio interview, investment seminar Lecture =====
Dr. Huang had half hour interview by Silicon Valley Financial TV, Radio station to speak on China/US credit tightening impact on economy and high tech/biotech corporate performance, stock prices, Euro, E. European, Russia, China  ADR asset allocation and risk management
Global Chinese Finance Forum San Francisco Silicon Valley High Tech/Biotech Investment Seminar 2004
An excellent opportunity to meet with Dr. Warren Huang to discuss “Market Trend and Outlook for Chinese Theme Stocks in US” and CEOs from five growing public companies to learn their current projects and growth potentials.
Date: May 8, 2004 (Saturday)        Time: 9:30-3:10pm  Venue: Crown Plaza Hotel, 777 Bellew Drive, Milpitas Format: Presentation in Chinese and English, Booths, Q&A, Lunch  visit www.GCFF>net
 Global Economy and Financial Markets Asset Prices Mechanism   Simulation /Forecasts through
Dr. Huang  two OSA master hands  controlling global economy, financial market prices , wrote thousands articles, and presented to 100 global central banks governors, financial risks management conference , accurately predicted month ahead on 1980, 1990, energy crisis, 1992 European  currency crisis, 1994- 96 China marco-economic control, 1997 Asian Financial crisis, 1998  LTCM ,  Russia currency crisis, 2000 IT bubble burst.
Thousands   causes and effect structural, dynamic proven predictive OSA simulators beat  daily money, capital, insurance, property markets ( published thousands articles, 30 million copies ( over 10 million readers ) for reliable tracking, forecasts 3 month ahead of last 20 years  central banks monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on global/China economy, daily capital market asset prices, bubble early warning, tailor to QFII/QDII  investment needs.  =======================================================================================
first time  shown on this website the  most reliable  global stock indices , currency , wealth management OSA simulation charts 
OSA Simulation Charts tracking forecasts 1-3 month ahead monetary policy on last 20 years daily
A. Consumer spending, Fed Fund rate, Dollar exchange rate impact on Dow Jones Index
B. Japan money supply growth, Yen exchange rate, Dow Jones impact on Tokyo Nikkei index
C. EU  money supply growth, EURO exchange rate, Dow Jones impact on German DAX index
D. Hong Kong money supply growth, interbank rate, Dow Jones impact on Henseng index have E.  US and EURO trade deficit/surplus, interest rate spread impact on EURO exchange rate
F. US and  Japan trade deficit/surplus, interest rate spread impact on  YEN  exchange rate
 Dr. Huang  predicted again on  Euroevents Singapore, Shanghai, Beijin Asian/China Finance, Capital Markets Conference Nov. 2003 that US and China underestimated excessive  US rate, tax cuts, dollar plunged 30 % and soaring China consumer demand, FDI  will push oil commodities, metal prices hit 23 year high early 2004 push US, China inflation to 3. % US 10 year bond yield up 1.2 % to 4.8 % resulted 380 billion dollar loss and series  rate hike after May 2004,  
OSA Predictive global macro-economic control and wealth management,  risk hedging  tracking/forecasts month ahead  the root causes, onset, spread, recovery of Asian/Global financial crisis, asset bubble bursts lecture to 24 global central bank governors, wealth management, financial market risk management conferences and millions global central banks, banking, finance, corporate CEO, executives on this website  since 1998 ,  over 30 million China, Taiwan, Asian, US , ASEAN, European executives, investors on TV, radio programs and thousands workshops since 1985  
5 Day Global Interest Rates, Bond Yield, Oil, Gold, Metals, Downstream Stocks, Currency Futures, Option Prices Mechanism Simulation  2005 Forecast Workshop
5 Day Global Interest Rates, Bond Yield, Stock Indices, Currency Futures, Option Prices Mechanism Simulation , Index, Debt Fund Asset Allocation Strategy  2005 Forecast Workshop

 Dr. Warren Huang CV  accurately predicted  Nov. 5, 2003 in Singapore ,Shanghai Euro-events conferencesSingapore http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/ photos 1, 2, 3 lecture ppt  , Shanghai, Beijin Nov. 2003  Asian/China finance, capital Markets conferences,  www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm   picture  2  and to China economists meeting Fudan University, Shanghai , Dec. over 2000 QFII/QDII executives, May 8, 15, 2004 to US Silicon Valley investors, radio station , and  www.osawh.com website that excessive rate and tax cuts resulted manufacturing and consumer demand pushing US Oil prices  soared above 50, metals  prices reaching 23 year high, will follow economic recovery and not transitory .  weak dollar due  to soaring trade deficit, ( 55.3 billion  for June, 50 for July ) will drive  inflation up 5 %, bond market slump in May 2004  job creation, productivity, profit growth peaking out  in the second quarter 2004 Fed June, Aug  , Sept 0.25 % rate hikes China credit tightening, will follow US rate hike in summer 2004, global economy facing inflationary slowdown and followed by stagflation next year with  stocks entering bear market consolidation, with 30- 50 % correction Global IPO  will facing 30-50 % correction  as Google will  plunged from 135 to 60-80, any attempt using IPO to speculate market rebound will be followed by sell off bear trap , avoided trillion dollar bond, equities, derivative market loss made trillion dollar oil, commodity derivatives market profit.
China Macroeconomic control tracking, forecasts: Despite  China Peoples Bank raised deposit ratio by 1.5 % and cutting capital investment in steel, cement, aluminum, auto loan lead to  some progress macroeconomic control with Aug money supply growth at 14.2 % (below 17 % target), auto sales down 10 %, asset prices, inflation retreat from May ( benefited by  commodities prices down 15 % ). However Aug. producer, consumer price still up 5.3 % ( coastal cities Beijin, Shanghai GDP up 14 %) from year ago, wealth effect, FDI drive Aug national  housing prices up 14.8 % ( 2750 ) and 28 %for coastal cities Shanghai, Ninbo, Aug retail sale up 13.2, China  first half GDP up 9. 7 % far above 7 % target, medium, long term loan up 30.4  % repeat 1994, call the need for interest rate hike in Oct. to cool off the consumer and housing demand.  soaring China steel, cement, aluminum investment (over 120 %), coal, energy shortage,  stocks prices recent rebound from 1250  to 1470 speculating over Premier's statement over stock market stability is overheated ( accurately predicted by Dr. Huang on this website) market is over, continue bear market technical rebound ( within 20 %  and consolidation, with Shanghai A testing 1250- 1500, IPO and newly listed small cap shares plunge 30-50 % with most testing its IPO price, low prices blue chips shares like Sinopec, Unicom will lead future rebound 20- 40 %. , This supply side tightening are insufficient to cool  the uneven economic overheating, must  follow US rate hike in Sept.  implement  structural  rate hikes to cut off excessive consumer demand in housing, construction materials, auto and retails  demand . any postpone of rate rate hike will further delay  soft landing into second half . 2005,   He also predicted  Oct. 1994 to China Wuhan securities news, Wangguo,  Kuotai  securities investors, Beijin  China Financial Times, China macroeconomic control will be soft-landing 1996, Shanghai A will be traded  between 600- 800 during 1994- 1996 He recommended that China stocks will be very attractive to QFII in the new Millennium
Global central banks, economist, financial market , industrial sectors analysts ignoring ,Dr. Huang photo  warning to ECB, JP Morgan in Rome, China Peoples Bank governor Dai central bank governors conference in Macao, Taiwan central bank governor Asian Pacific conference Taipei, APEC finance Thailand prime minister, ASEAN central bank governors conferences in Bangkok, US Fed  governors , Washington Area, NASD finance conferences 1998-2000 on  IT asset bubble bursts
US macroeconomic, inflation control  tracking, forecasts: Dr. Huang spoke to Euro-events Singapore , Shanghai, Beijin Nov.  2003  Asian/China Finance, Capital Markets conferences lecture to 2000 QFII, QDII mutual fund managers and  China Economist annual meeting Dec. 20 and www.osawh.com  website and thousands workshops  warning  US, global analysts over optimistic  over the business and consumer spending twin growth engine will drive second half 2004 economic recovery, profit growth, bull market rally, job creation, underestimated on the impact of US dollar depreciation, excessive rate, tax cuts , 45 trillion dollar  housing, equities wealth effect resulted excessive consumer, business demand, NAPM peaking out at 66 ( already plunged to 58 as predicted ) driving soaring oil, commodities, metals asset prices bubble reaching 23 year high in March, May  and extending into the rest of  2004.  US trade deficit soared to 50- 55 billion and inflation, facing credit tightening, rate hikes after May, Aug. Sept 2004, profit , productivity growth , consumer confidence( already plunged to 98 from 106 as predicted) , business spending,  peaking out, facing  squeeze in  second half  2004, Job creation peaking out at March 370,000,  May 230,000, June 80,000, July only 32,000 , despite Aug 112,000, stock prices peaking out in the second quarter, China and US, Global stocks bull markets are over, entering bear market consolidation.   US High tech, finance, housing, retails, auto share will give up  all its 2004 gain plunge  30-50 % and  trillion dollar loss in bond and stock markets repeating 1995 and 2000  and trillion dollar profits in oil, commodity futures investments
US inflation rate at  3.2 % in Aug., with business  spending up 10 %, consumer confidence above 100 ISM at 66 are inflationary, facing excessive inventory built up,  oil, soared to 50 and metals to  new high, will drive up 20 sectors 5000 products costs and prices, more rate hikes are on its way to cool off the economy. (
Global Capital Markets Asset prices tracking, forecasts:
Dr. Huang lectured to 50 European, Asian, Malaysian central banks, banking, finance executives Kuala Lumpur, Sept. 30, 2002 predicted that oil prices soared to 43, Dow Jones retest 7500 Nasdaq 1250, March 2003 on Asian Business Forum.   He lectured Nov. 2003 lectured to Euro-events Singapore http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/ photos 1, 2, 3 lecture ppt  , Shanghai, Beijin Nov. Asian/China finance, capital Markets conferences,  www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm2003   picture  2  and to China economists meeting Fudan University, Shanghai , Dec. over 2000 QFII/QDII executives, identify housing, equities wealth effect bubbles   month ahead, investment opportunities in China petrochemical upstream/downstream, steel, aluminum, telecommunications ADR , Shanghai A and Hong Kong H shares, mutual fund up 80 %  IPO shares up 150 % and early warning for asset bubbles in oil, commodities prices reaching 23  year peak( recommended invested in future, derivatives gained 5000 %) in March 2004, will drive China CPI to 5 %, with steel, cement over-invested 170 % and energy shortage will lead to further credit tightening, accurately predicted China Peoples bank raise bank reserve ratio 0.5 % to 7.5 % open market inter-bank rate (Chibor)must stay above 3.% to remove 110 billion from the capital markets,  US CPI to 5.1 %, core inflation to 2.7 % in the summer , overoptimistic over US economic recovery and job creation,( despite March strong 300,000  new jobs can not sustainable after June quarter tax rebate is over ( June job creation already down to 32,000) and  inflation outlook may lead to rate hike after May and summer lead to serious bond market plunge (US lose  380 billion dollar, China lose 270 billion) housing bubble repeat 1995 bond market crash and 2000 election bubble and global IT and blue chips banking shares will peaking out in July  facing and correction 2004, Market speculators using Dell 29 % profit gain to push Dell and High tech, and blue chips is premature, Dell will facing pricing cutting from HP and general economic slowdown, Dell stock will plunge below 30, IBM test 80. Global IPO  will facing 30-50 % correction  as Google plunged from 135 to 60-80, any attempt using IPO to speculate market rebound will be followed by sell off bear trap  Dow will be traded 9550- 10700, Nasdaq  1750- 2150 , Taiwan index post election bubble burst from 7200 to  5000- 5500, Henseng 12500- 14500, Nikkei 10000- 11500, China credit tightening continue. Shanghai A 1200- 1300, Shenzhen 3000- 3250, Euro : 1.28- 1.40 , Yen 105- 110, US, Asian and European stocks  follow US stocks  rebound  in the Dec  2004 will gave up all  its gain  China and US economic slowdown will drag global economic growth, stocks  ( including IPO )facing  30-50 % bear market  correction consolidation   

Monetary,  Economic, Fiscal Policy, WTO  impact on Global  Economic, Business cycles, Asset, Wealth , Prices  bubbles burst, oil, energy , Currency crisis, recession FEED FORWARD ( predicted 3-6 month ahead) SUSTAINABLE GROWTH AND ASSET PRICES STABILITY CONTROL Financial Markets Return, Asset Allocation, Strategic Risks OSA (RIGHT  HAND )  
Structural, Dynamics simulation of Monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on last 20 years global macro economic, business cycles, capital market asset prices, bubbles , financial crisis, boom and busts achieving growth and prices stability control predicted 1- 3 month ahead,  European n currency crisis, Global financial crisis since 1980 and 2000 high tech bubble burst and 2001-2003 global market crash and recovery :
Dr. Warren Huang HAS BEEN INVITED TO SPEAK TO 24 GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS GOVERNORS  CONFERENCE ( FRB, ECB, China Peoples Bank, Taiwan, Japan, Korea, Thailand, Asian ) since 1998 warned that Global high tech bubble burst will plunge 50-70 % and facing recession. He offered thousands lectures accurately predicted China Peoples Banks monetary policy impact on 1994-96 macro-economic control-soft landing on China daily stock markets to China 15 cities 30 million investors, national newspapers during 1994-1998 in China and again predicted China excessive money supply, housing bubble facing tightening Mar. 2003 Shanghai workshops
    
Thousands   causes and effect structural, dynamic proven predictive OSA simulators beat  daily money, capital, insurance, property markets ( published thousands articles, 30 million copies ( over 10 million readers ) for reliable tracking, forecasts 3 month ahead of last 20 years  central banks monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on global/China economy, daily capital market asset prices, bubble early warning, tailor to QFII/QDII  investment needs.
Dr. Huang accurately  predicted  last 20 years daily US interest rate, commodities, gold, oil prices daily capital market prices 4 month ahead and again at  Shanghai University of Finance, Economics, Oct. 25,  Euro-event  Singapore, Nov. 5,  2003 Asian Finance, capital market conference on  Monetary policy impact on Asian and China  economic outlook, asset prices, warned  that any free float of RMB will  lead to China currency crisis and US runaway inflation and  repeat past global financial crisis, bubble burst. Only Dr. Huang's two master hands ( interest rate and trade, economic policy ) market forces price mechanism guide through RMB gradual appreciation is the best approach, regardless peg to the dollar or a basket of currency. and  recommended to  buy Russia oils,  China A, B ADR  oil, petroch( PTR, SNP, CEO), steel, aluminum share and Hong Kong H shares due to soaring Russia China, demand, profits, DFI inflow, while sell overheated US,  Taiwan,  Singapore, Korea, Japan, German ,UK I, Euro T shares, due to price cutting. buy with caution global banking, finance stocks due to low interest rate, soaring housing, stock markets facing bubble burst.   and continue recommendation on China shares  on China finance, capital market conference  Shanghai, Nov. 25 ,  Beijin, Nov. 27  2003, but warned China  stocks bubble on China economic society annual meeting, Fudan Univeristy, Dec. 20, 2003 bubbles in China ADR share up 50 % -80 % after Dr. Huang Nov. 5 recommendation   due to  hurt by China Peoples Bank credit tightening in steel, cement, auto, housing will facing 20 % correction , China life IPO will give up most of its gain  US rate hike by May 2004, ,US dollar stabilize ,oil prices traded 28-36, gold price peaking out , traded 380-430  as confirmed by China People's bank Jan 5 to cut the money supply growth from 2003's 18 % to 14- 15 % this year , China leave RMB unchange and Greenspan indicated the need for rate hike
He also accurately predicted rising interest rate, and huge trade surplus driving Pound to 1.88, EURO to 1.28 new high, widening UK deficit to 8 billion, cutting, EURO export, growth, profits, stocks  and trade surplus, eventually repeating 1991, forcing EURO to plunge.  ( ECB will leave rate unchange to take the pressure of EURO) excessive US  rate, tax cuts led to 19 year high commodity prices, soaring housing, stock prices , will  drive US CPI to 2.6 %, core inflation to 1.7 % in the summer ,  serious housing bubble will lead to , raise interest rate by May, 2004, China will continue credit tightening, as confirmed by China People's bank Jan 5 to cut the money supply growth from 2003's 18 % to 17% this year and Greenspan indicated the need for rate hike , EURO can not raise rate before US to take pressure off EURO

USA    Australia  Asian  Canada  China   Hong Kong   Taiwan    Thailand   Japan  S. Korea   Singapore  Malaysia  Phillipines  Indonesia   Viet-Nan   India  UK/EURO  Russia/E. Europe    Mexico   Argentina  Brazil
 US and global markets   global capital markets investment strategic simulation tailored to your need . please email wh3928@yahoo.com for reservation

EURO 2004 Economy, Capital Stock Market Prices, Wealth Effect OSA Forecasts
Dr. Warren Huang  predicted  on Euro-events Asian Finance, capital market conference Singapore, Nov. 5, 2003, and China finance, capital market conference, Shanghai, Nov. 25, Beijin, Nov. 27, 2003,  to 1000 QFII asset, wealth managers,  Peking University China economic research center sponsored China economist society meeting, Shanghai, Dec. 2003 and  his website www.osawh.com that EURO economy, will repeating 1991 currency bubble burst ( ECB will leave rate unchange to take the pressure of EURO)at  China continue credit tightening into 2004,US and global stocks, asset prices overheated facing US FRB rate hike after May 2004 and China A shares, Hong Kong H share strong rebound, EURO making new high due to soaring  trade surplus, rising interest rate , is hurting its growth and export.
He also predicted  US June 1999 rate hike and 2000 IT  bubble and equity wealth effect  burst on Oct, 1991 Brussels, Belgium,  Large Chemicals plant conference warning European currency bubble burst , currency crisis ECB, JP Morgan conference on Post EURO Banking, Finance Integration Strategy, Rome, Nov. 26, 1998
Washington area banking, finance conference, Apr. 1999, Washington DC,
European Financial Management conference, Barcelona, Spain, June 29-30, 1999
China central bank governor sponsored global central banks policy for sustainable growth, stability ,Macao, May, 1999, Taiwan central banks governor, sponsored Pacific Basin economic and finance, Taipei, May, 1999
He predicted first US first rate cut and recession and global stock follow Dow Jones plunge 40 %, Nasdaq plunged 70 % on warning to China Peoples Banks Beijin executives and this website  May, 2001 and predicted again to May , 2002 to Peking University's Global Finance conference  and Asian Business Forum,  Sept 2002 Kuala, Lumpur ABS conference ASEAN central banks, banking finance executive that US and global stock rebound and economy recovery after retest new low first quarter 2003 
Witnessed by million global government central banks ( China Peoples Bank, FRB, ECB, IMF, World Bank , IFC )banking, securities,  top investment bankers (Citicorp, Goldman Sach, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Nomura, UBS, Deutch Bank, Barclay Global), multinational executives visited this website since 1998   
 Hundred thousands integrated, global  structural, dynamics, deterministic proprietary model simulators
first time  shown on this website the  most reliable  global stock indices , currency OSA simulation charts 
OSA Simulation Charts tracking forecasts 1-3 month ahead monetary policy on last 20 years daily  tracking record
A. Consumer spending, Fed Fund rate, Dollar exchange rate impact on Dow Jones Index
B. Japan money supply growth, Yen exchange rate, Dow Jones impact on Tokyo Nikkei index
C. ECB  money supply growth, EURO exchange rate, Dow Jones impact on German DAX index
D. Hong Kong money supply growth, interbank rate, Dow Jones impact on Henseng index have been developed, implemented supporting the following  goal, mission, performance oriented  outsourcing strategic centers corporate/ memberships/ workshops   tailored to global government, enterprises, banking, finances enterprises  board members, think tank and executives in integrating into the global markets decision needs:
Dr. Warren Huang, pioneer of two master hands controlling global economy and capital market prices. Thousands   causes and effect structural, dynamic OSA simulators reliable tracking, forecasts 3 month ahead of last 20 years global/China economy, daily interest rates, currency, capital market asset prices, bubble early warning, tailor to US, European, Asian QFII/QDII , investment bankers, wealth management investment needs,  He offered thousands  TV, radio lectures , wrote thousands articles on daily newspaper, investment journals to 30 millions China, Taiwan, US 15 cities investors, VIP traders, money managers and hundreds  global QFII/QDII  banking, securities , asset management, investment bankers companies CEO, executives and corporate CFO  since 1985.  His OSA simulators tracking the causes, onset, recovery of Asian, global financial crisis, asset bubble bursts, NPL loan, invited to speak to 24 US, Asian, European central bank governors conferences  and million government, central banks, banking, securities, investment banking corporate executives , universities visited this website  tracking accurately daily capital market prices since 1998  
 Dr. Huang pioneered two master hands controlling last 20 years global economy, daily financial market asset prices, accurately predicted 3 month ahead  last 1980, 1990, 2001 global recession, stock market crash, 1992 European, 1994 China, 1997 Asian and 1998 Russian currency crisis and current US bubble burst recovery , speak to China, Taiwan, 15 cities TV, radio, banking, finance executives, 30 million visitors and millions global government, banking, finance, corporate CEO, executives visited this website tracking the results .
Presented to  Stockholm school economic, econometric conference, Stockholm, Sweden Dec. 10 , 1998 ,Post EURO banking, Finance Strategy  conference by JP Morgan, Nov. 16, 1998 Rome Italy  on post EURO Banking, Finance Integration Strategy and China Peoples Bank Governor sponsored Asian Central bank governors Policy conference, May 15, 1999, Macao and  European Financial Management Conference as, Chairman of risks in the int'l context, Barcelona, Spain, June 2, 1999 and Royal Statistical Society, on risk management conference, London, UK, July 14, 1999 Global Finance Conference, Apr 9, 2001, Los Angeles,  APEC  Finance Conference, July 25-26,2001,  Bangkok,   Global Finance Conference,  May 27-28, 2002, Global Corporate Governance Conference Beijin, China; Asian Business Forum on Asset Backed Securitization conference Kuala Lumpur, Sept. 30, 2002 to European, Asian Central banks, banking, securities companies and Shanghai Jiaotung University's Pan Pacific Business Conference, May 2003 Euro-events Asian Finance, capital market conference China finance, capital market conference, Shanghai, Nov. 25, Beijin, Nov. 27, 2003,  to 1000 QFII asset, wealth managers,  Peking University China economic research center sponsored China economic society meeting, Shanghai, Dec. 2003 and  his website www.osawh.com
European central bank (ECB) and Russia   Monetary Policy on  E. European countries and Russia GDP  for sustainable  growth and  capital markets asset price stability)
OSA simulation of EURO macro-economics:
Inflation rate = F (Money supply growth rate %, Oil prices, Commodity index,  EURO  exchange rate)
GNP = F (Money supply or consumer, business spending growth rate %, Interest Rate, Export Growth Rate)
Property prices = F (Money supply growth rate %, Interest Rate, stock index)
NAPM = F( Consumer spending growth rate %, Interest Rate, stock index)
Business, consumer spending = F( Overnite interest rate, money supply growth, EURO , UK exchange rate unemployment rate)

Stock indices = F( Dow Jones index), Interest rate, UK,  EURO exchange rate)
Wealth Effect = F( money supply, consumer, business spending, interest rate, currency, stock index, housing prices)
OSA/EURO for Economy Growth and Financial Markets Simulation:: These formulas tracking the EURO 11 member countries , UK monetary policy inter-bank interest rate converged to 3 % and with 4.5 % money supply growth to meet 2 % inflation and 2.5 % GNP in 1999 and Asian recovery, US soaring stocks, housing market wealth effect pushed consumer, business demand for EURO export, weak EURO ,pushed oil price to 37, 6,  rate hike resulted slowdown in business, consumer spending , plunging prices, corporate profits, stocks prices to cool off EURO,  US economy, drag NAPM from 58 to 41.2. GNP from 7.3 % to- 0.5 %, EURO money supply growth exceeds 4.5 % to 8.5 %, inflation 2.8 % and GDP of 3.5 % lead to EURO 7 interest rate hike in 2000 to tightening the money supply growth to 4.5 % and inflation to 2 %, GDP to 1.5  % , Soaring US trade deficit to  43 billion pushed  EURO from 0.83 to 1.29  cut Into EURO export and corporate earning and drag  stock prices retreat 50 % in 2002-2003 and 2004
EURO  economy  facing   recession in 2001-2002 , but follow US pulling out of recession gradually in 2003, Strong EURO cutting into export and economic growth
Global financial markets analysts ignoring  US 6 rate hike and ECB( European Central Bank monetary policy impact on EURO economy and, consumer demand, corporate sales, earning, stock prices, rushing into EURO markets push for overpriced stocks, ECB  raised interest rate 7  times (from 2.5 % to 4.75 % to achieve growth and prices stability. However inflation exceed 2 % target to 2.4 %, GDP exceed 2.5 % to 3.5 %, unemployment dip below 9.5 % due to global stock rally resulted wealth effect   and strong export due to weak EURO . However, rising import prices (soariig oil prices cutting into EURO trade surplus from 7 billion to 4 billion lead to EURO currency depreciation to 0.83 predicted by Dr Huang's OSA models presented Rome, Italy's EURO central  banks conference on post EURO banking and finance strategy and Barcelona, Spain's European financial management conferences.
Falling oil prices, weak EURO  , boost EURO export and trade surplus and US  recession in 2001   
US current recovery and weak EURO ( Plunged from 1.18 to 1.10  boosted EURO export and trade surplus, ( 9 billion ) led EURO manufacturing sectors barely out of recession ( NAPM is 50)however, soaring oil prices, also boost US import and trade deficit to 44 billion pushed EURO to 1.29 in late 2003, cutting trade surplus and EURO recovery  EURO Growth will be around 1.0 % in the second half 2003 and early 2004
Dr. Huang  predicted and warned here again early Sept 2003, that global economist and market analyst treated unemployment as lagging indicators ignoring  US and global high unemployment  soaring oil, commodity prices  facing rate hike late 2004 will drag consumer confidence ( peaking out at 100) and stock prices 10-20 % correction.

1.  Dr. Warren Huang accurately predicted US Fed and ECB will raise fund rate in June 1999 due to soaring stocks, properties, oil prices, which will take US , EURO stocks and Asian stock prices into minimum 15 % correction, and some internet , biotech stock with 50 % corrections, Dow Jones will test 10,000, Nasdaq test 3000, Henseng test 15000, Nikkei test 18,000, Taiwan index down to 8500 with   asset  bubble  simulation models on Macao's central bank governors conference, Taipei's Pacific Basin finance conference and Washington DC NASD conferences .during April and May , June, Dec. 1999.
   These deterministic, dynamic simulation of last 20 years global asset prices, and economy boom and bust of the asset bubble vicious cycle of excessive monetary policy, low interest rate induced sustained long term bull markets stocks prices gain caused consumer and business spending in real estate properties pushed soaring housing prices and rent. And deficit spending (negative saving) in stock markets, pushed the stock s even higher, until abrupt reverse of consumer and investor confidence --the bubble burst- plunge of stocks and properties prices as it happened in US, Japan, Taiwan in 1980, 1987, 1990, energy crisis, EURO 1992 currency crisis, 1994 China runaway inflation, 1995 Mexico crisis, 1997-98 ASEAN, Japan, Korea, Russia, Brazil currency crisis, all caused by overpriced stock prices due to excess monetary policy and high GDP growth

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