Nobel idea and 30 years implementation of
proactive structural decision analysis modeling innovation breakthrough in
Global Monetary,
Economic, Fiscal Policy
in
Macro Economic
Growth, Prices Stability and Asset Price
Bubble Control , Debt, Recession,
unemployment Trilemma solution by and Financial Market Asset
Prices mechanism
predicting the causes, onset, recovery, early warning Global
Financial Crisis, Recession
macro stress test
and
bank stress test Operations
Simulations Analysis (OSA)
|Innovation Breakthrough in Proactive Structural Approach to European Central Bank Monetary,
Economic
Policy Decision Analysis by
Proactive
Structural
Strategic Economic Systems Integration Simulation (PEIS)
for
Optimal ECB monetary, Economic policy trilemma Structural Solution
by Proactive structural
Simulation of
( Growth, Inflation,
Deflation, Recession, Debt, Liquidity, Housing, Commodities, Commodity,
Equities, Bond Asset Prices Bubble Burst, Currency Stability )
and Financial Systems Imbalance Stability
, Crisis, Risks Early Warning ,
Regulation )
Tracking simulate Debt, Liquidity Housing Bubbles Burst, Crisis,
Interest rate, Credit, Financial,
Recession ,Bail Out, Recession Stimulus Impact on EURO
Equities, Currency, Commodities Housing , CPI Prices
Tracking ECB Monetary, Economic, Fiscal Policy,
achieving sustainable GDP and Capital Market Growth, Currency, CPI Price stability
without Inflation, Housing, Equities, energy, commodity Asset Prices bubble
Burst OSA( Operations Simulation Analysis ) Performance Guidance and
Control:
Optimal
policy trilemma strategic solution workshop
Trilemma
problem solution Growth,
Inflation, asset prices bubble, Recession, unemployment, Mortgage
and debt bubble crisis, Financial
Systems Stability Risks Early Warning
EURO area housing market price bubble burst ,(
continued slump from soaring prices drag UK, Portugece, Italy, Greece,
Spain France Italy, German, Ireland into
recession , and stock price into 50-
70 % bear market correction through
2010, while excessive liquidity,
low interest rate created huge , government
overspending resulted
trade, current account
huge sovereign deficit debt
UK and Spain facing serious housing
price bubble prices bubble burst , housing price slump in 2008,drag economy into
recession due to rising interest rates, stock markets bear market correction
E. European countries housing bubble burst due to loan tie into S. France facing
rising interest rate, currency appreciation credit tightening due to
stock markets correction.
ECB central
bank governor Trichit warned May 16, 2010
that Euro is facing the worst economic and
financial crisis since WWI, 1 trillion
bailout can not solve the PIGS debt
problems, It need more effort and structural
solution to the debt crisis
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Trichet-economy-in-deepest-apf-220968396.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=2&asset=&ccode=
US Sept. consumer confidence plunge to 38, ISM
manufacturing purchaser index plunge to 38 and jobless rate to 6. 5 % and Dow
Jones plunged 40 % third quarter GDP contract 0.3 %core inflation up 2.9
%, warned, predict by me Sept. 2007 on this blog that US housing slump
continue , will entering double dip inflationary recession 3Q 2008 despite rate
cuts, stimulus, bail out plan
The real causes of current mortgage,
credit, financial crisis and recession are due to poor financial,
monetary policy decision modeling in asset pricing and risks
valuation mechanism, MBS, CDO , the burst of super housing, commodities
asset price bubbles caused by 7 year longest expansive excessive money
supply, easy credit policy .
Global central banks, financial markets financial decision still rely on
30 year old probabilistic, statistical Capital Market Asset Pricing (CAPM)
and macroeconomic modeling, ignoring asset price impact on inflation and
financial, housing , MBS, CDO prices.
Predicted by Dr. Warren Huang, pioneer of Proactive Global Asset
Pricing Mechanism , June 2007 , Beijing, Wall Street
Journal Economic, Market Beat
Blog Aug.2007 and March 5, 2008 Pudong, China Fund World 2008
to 200 global top investment banking, fund managers that Global Housing price bubble burst, prices plunge
30 % into 2009, drag global economy into recession and stocks bond,
oil, commodities,
metals ,Derivative Asset Prices Bubbles Burst with 50 % Price Correction
Cause
Credit, Financial Crisis and Economic
Recession, ( As Dow Jones, SP 500, NASDAQ drag global stock indices
plunged more than 50 % into 2002 recession low ,( Dow Jones
after current consolidate in 8000- 9000 will test 7000, NASDAQ test
1250, S&P test 700 low,
oil price plunged 50 % from 147 to 60，Gas
oil from1300 to 650 , corn from 800 to 350, cotton from 80 to
44 as global economy enter deep recession by year end,
despite US 700 billion and ECB 2.3 trillion bail out
to stabilize credit
crisis
details on
www.osawh.com/Fedcrisab.htm
www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm
www.osawh.com/commody.html
www.osawh.com/centmaf.html
Dr. Warren Huang
(黃華南博士)
Pioneer, proactive
structural dynamic global inflation, macro economy, daily financial markets
interest rates, currency, stock, bond, derivatives, housing,
commodities, oil asset pricing and risks valuation markets
fundamentals price mechanism, accurately warned
on Wall Street Journal Market beat Blog Sept.19, 2007
and Mar
5, 2008 masterclass workshop China fund world 2008, Pudong,
China to Goldman Sach managing directors JPM, UBS and 150
China QDII/QFII fund managers
that US Fed aggressive rate
cuts drag dollar to 1.53-1.65 EURO, 95- 108 Yen, economic stimulus boost
consumer spending on gasoline and jet fuel summer, demand, driving gasoline ,
heating oil to 415, oil price to 121-145, commodity price
double, will peak out as US
dollar rebound follow Fed ending rate cuts cycle , can not
stop
sub-prime crisis spreading, regional housing price slump 30-50
% and credit crisis, crunch crisis continue through 2009 drag economy into
2009 double dip
inflationary recession resulted trillion housing and stock market
loss and US, global stock indices bear market 50 % , Dow Jones
test 7000- 8000 NASDAQ PLUNGE
testing 1250- 1500 and high fliers (GOOG,
PTR, AAPL) , IT, retail stocks facing correction,
with banking, finance, housing share price plunge 70- 90 %, dollar making to new
low 90 Yen, commodity prices doubled, and bubble burst plunge
50 % in recession widening bond
, CDS spread and failure in MBS/CDO,
Bear Stearn 30 billion dollar MBS hedge fund
and government steps rescue Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac bail out, despite
Fed rate cuts
. He also warned top global QFII management on Peking Univ June 2007 International Financial Engineering Conference
that China overheated
housing, stock market wealth gain resulted inflation over 8.7 % will lead to China Peoples Bank credit tightening to remove excessive liquidity,
Banking housing, stock markets follow US
housing price slump, recession, bear market correction, with Shanghai A testing
1800 through early 2009 until
economy softlanding
China is suffering from housing market overheating, with 300 % gain in housing
prices still up 3.5 % , FIXED investment , export growth and consumer
spending still up 26 %, first 9 month GDP still up 9.9 %, CPI up 7 % despite
China peoples Bank 6 rate hikes, 16 bank deposit rat hike to 17.5 %. China
need to further cut its M2 money supply growth from 15 % to 12 % next year
to achieve housing price cut of 30 %, CPI to 4 %, GDP to 8 % to achieve soft
landing and start of bull market stock rally.
Proactive Structural Dynamic Simulation of ECB,
UK Optimal Monetary
,Economic, Fiscal Policy Impact on
Inflation, interest rates, unemployment, GDP, Assets (Stocks, Bond,
Housing, Commodity) Prices Bubbles Identification, inflation, deflation, burst,
recovery, early warning , performance guidance and Control in achieving
optimal growth and price stability
The What, Why, How and
timing in
central banking Optimal Predictive Monetary Policy: Integrated Macro economic Control,
imbalance, Systemic Risks, Impact on 20 industrial sectors demand, supply,
prices and Capital
markets Asset Prices market forces mechanism and Systemic Risks Stress Testing Early
Warning System achieve Sustainable Growth and Prices Stability
Proactive structural global macro
economic inflation, interest rates OSA forecast 3 years, month ahead, US/EURO/China contractionary /expansionary monetary policy in GDP/ inflation, currency targeting,
financial market imbalance stability control tracking.
predicted 2003 on ASian Finance/CApital Market Conferences to 200 global QFII
executives and Sept 2007 on Wall Street Journal Economic, Market Beat blog that US/UK/EURO housing bubble burst 2006 and 2007 sub-prime default drag
US/EURO dollar and 2008 economic recession ,stock , commodity, oil bubbles
bubble burst bear market 50- 70 % price correction,
Dr. Warren Huang
who
pioneered proactive structural demand side oil price mechanism simulation on US
Oil & Gas Journal 1983,
circulated
million copies to 80 countries,
accurately predicted oil price from 9 to
147 from 1986 to
2007 . He
predicted 2005 on China
Oil Markets Conference workshop, Beijin to multinational
oil, QFII CEO, executives that oil prices
soared to 80
, due to
increasing demand from China/US
global housing, auto, construction materials and transportation,
dragged by
US
housing market weakness, oil price will
be supported by final leg of dollar plunge against Yen, and inflation, seasonal demand in
gasoline, heating oil and global housing, constructional materials, metals
energy consumption. it peaking out summer gasoline demand at 80, Fed 300 points rate cuts, economic stimulus package, 200 billion cash injection led to Yen plunge to
95-100-105, and EURO to 1.55-1.66 ,driving up consumer, business demand
and oil price to 90-
115 , supporting spring summer driving peak demand in 2008 through
economic stimulus, tax cuts
However strong EURO in 2007- 2008 cut EMU export and GDP growth within 6 months to cool
off overheated housing, equities asset bubbles
led to 2008 recession
Hundred
thousands integrated, proactive global structural, dynamics, deterministic
proprietary Capital Market Asset Prices Models (CAPM) simulators
first time shown on this website
the most reliable optimal monetary policy trilemma solution,
integrating money supply, interest rate, inflation , currency into capital
market asset prices bubbles ( global stock indices) OSA simulation charts
1.Global Finance, Capital Markets Asset Prices Modeling (CAPM)
Simulation/Forecasts months ahead of emerging market trend
A. Pricing forecasts for securities, futures, derivatives tracking real time
EURO-US, global financial markets integration and interaction
OSA Simulation Charts tracking forecasts 1-3 month
ahead monetary policy on last 20 years daily
Consumer spending, Fed Fund rate, Dollar Yen exchange rate impact on Dow Jones Index
Japan money supply growth, Yen exchange rate, Dow Jones impact on Tokyo Nikkei index
EU money supply growth, EURO exchange rate, Dow Jones impact on German DAX index
Hong Kong money supply growth, inter-bank rate, Dow Jones impact on Henseng index have been developed, implemented supporting the following goal,
mission, performance oriented outsourcing strategic centers corporate/
memberships/
workshops
Dr. Warren Huang, pioneer of proactive structural global monetary policy presented to China
Peoples bank governor sponsored Asian central bank governors, US Fed Chicago,
Ohio governor, ECB, UK, Taiwan 24 global central bank governors policy and
risks management conferences
Macroeconomic OSA
Financial Economics OSA Industrial Economics OSA
Trade Economics OSA
inflation, GDP,
Capital Market prices industrial
sectors demand commodity ,products
unemployment
Currency, interest rates supply, commodity, asset
import/export prices
consumer spending
prices bubble mechanism global
currency prices
Regional economics
regional growth, over-heating housing construction
materials prices bubbles
bursts
Meeting ECB/UK policy trilemma GDP, capital
market growth, inflation, currency, price stability , goals:
|
|
|
OSA
founder Dr. Warren Huang CV
Picture of Dr. Warren Huang speaking pioneering
experiences in development, implementation financial engineering theory of two
master hands controlling global macro economic control, growth, prices stability
and daily financial capital market assets( stocks, bond, housing, commodities)
prices: Thousand proactive structural dynamic simulation forecasts month,
years ahead of macroeconomic control, monetary economic, fiscal, WTO policy
impact on last 20 years China/global GDP, employment, inflation and daily EMU
and global cross border capital markets interest rates, currency, bond,
commodity, industrial sectors demand, prices, stock prices market forces
mechanism forecast supporting ECB 12 members convergence, integration into EMU
and 10 E. European countries convergence, integration into 12 member EMU
US, China, Taiwan, Asian government, banking, finance, multinational, state
and medium, small enterprises reform, venture capital investment banking,
tracking the causes, onset, recovery, early warning for global financial,
currency, asset bubbles burst crisis, Basel II credit, market., operations risks
management early warning. With correlation constant over 0.95,
average error below 1.5 %,
He has been invited to speak post EURO banking, finance integration
conference, in Rome 1998 (by JP Morgan ) on European cross border banking,
finance integration and dynamic simulation of the causes, onset, recovery,
early warning of European financial crisis, and Global financial
crisis early warning to US, China, Asian 24 global
central bank governors, financial risks
management, oil, financial futures, derivatives conferences.
visit
www.ecb.int for daily European Central Bank Operations and Decision
Making.
EU
enlargement and the Euro
On 1 May 2004 ten new Member States joined the European Union – the Czech Republic, Estonia, Cyprus, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, Malta, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia.
The new countries will adopt the euro only when they fulfill certain economic criteria, namely, a high degree of price stability, a sound fiscal situation, stable exchange rates and converged long-term interest rates. The current euro area members had to fulfill the same criteria.
The European Central Bank contributes to the decision-making on future euro area members by preparing convergence reports in which it analyses whether the countries concerned fulfill the necessary conditions for adoption of the euro.
Global Strategic
Management ECB/ Global central banks Monetary policy,
prices stability OSA forecasts, mission control tracking/forecast
the
OSA
cause,
onset, recovery of
European/ global
financial crisis, bubble burst early warning,
achieve sustainable growth and
and prices stability in crisis
www.osawh.com
About OSA Products & Services
Nobel Prize dream workshops
VIP/Corporate membership
By
Dr. Warren Huang /pioneer OSA
wh3928@yahoo.com
(Right master hand)
====================================================================================
Structural, dynamic Predictive Global Central Banks Monetary Policy for Sustainable
Growth and Asset Prices Stability Guidance and Control:
Policy Impact Simulation
Beat capital, money, insurance, property prices Workshops
Global Macroeconomic Control , Capital Markets Asset
Prices, Bubbles Simulation, Early Warning OSA for Strategic Financial
Integration Developed, Emerging Capital Markeets strategic investment/ Basel II risk management lecture/workshops tours
(covered thousands lectures, 46 countries capital cities 30
million , banking, finance corporate CEO, CFO, fund managers, senior
executives investors since 1983, by
your expert
80 Speaker, Dr. Warren Huang, Pioneer, Global leader, scholar
in Global Strategic Management
| Name | Symbols | outlook. early warning | trading range |
| Barclay | BCS | defaults risks rate hikes, demand slowdown | 36- 55 |
| British Airway | BAB | improved demand, soaring oil price ,credit tightening | 40- 65 |
| Cambridge Antibody | CATG | competition, new drug | 12- 24 |
| GlaxoSmithKline | GSK | demand up, competition | 42-- 50 |
| HSBC | HBC | credit tightening, demand slowdown, defaults risks | 80- 99 |
| Rolls Royce | RYCEY | demand slowdown, cost up, competition | 13- 18 |
| Unilever | UL | credit tightening price cutting, competition | 35- 45 |
| Vodfone | VOD | price cutting, competition | 18-25 |
| BP | BP | credit tightening, oil price,demand peaking | 60- 77 |
German
Economy and DAX Stock Index : Asian recovery and
strong China, US, EURO demand lead to soaring oil prices , EMU benefited by strong
EURO and Mark, inflation below 2.4 %% despite expansionary money supply growth at
6 %, and low interest rate a 2 % to reduce unemployment rate. while US Fed
5 fund rate hikes to 2.25 %, and strong EURO drag GDP to
1.3 % , However widening German trade surplus at 16 billion boosted EURO
to 1.36 and
German Mark to new high early this year cutting into export and production
up only 1.5 % and flat, retails sales, corporate profit.
Despite recent US , China demand and Asian economic recovery boost
German economy, in the second half 2003 and 2004 German stock
is benefited by US, global stock rebound German Dax Stock index
followed Nasdaq up 70 % from 2600 to 4300 are excessive, will face
correction to 5500- 5900 as China credit tightening, US rate hikes resulted
slowdown in the early
2005 and hurt by strong, Mark, Euro.
|
German housing bubble burst, US, EURO credit, financial crisis
recession drag German into GDP -2 % recession 3Q ,2008
Soaring oil , commodity prices, import led to 279 billion trade surplus
in 2008 Soaring EURO drag German export , it plunged to 1.25 in Oct 2008, US,,
global credit, financial crisis, recession, ECB 200 point rate cuts ,
600 billion bail out can not save stock and housing market crash in
recession. DAX will follow Dow
Jones 50 % correction in the range 3500- 4900 in deep
recession
German ADR shares
German
ADR shares prices OSA, asset bubble earning warning,
| Name | Symbols | outlook. early warning | trading range |
| Allianz | AZ | price cutting, competition, market risks | 10- 15 |
| Addidas | ADDDY | price cutting, competition | 45- 60 |
| BASF AG | BF | soaring oil price, costs, price cutting, | 40--60 |
| Bayer AG | BAY | price cutting, competition | 24-- 30 |
| Deutsch Bank | DB | Hi unemployment, global slowdown, high default | 60-80 |
| Deutsch Telecom | DT | price cutting, competition | 16- 22 |
| InfIneon | IFX | price cutting, competition | 9- 14- |
| SAP | SAP | price cutting, competition | 35- 45 |
| Schering | SHR | price cutting, competition | 45-45 |
| Siemens | SI | price cutting, competition, demand up | 75- 85 |
| Volkswagons | VLKPY | price cutting, competition | 5- 8 |
France Economy
and Paris s CAC Stock Index : Asian recovery and
strong China, US, EURO demand lead to soaring oil prices , EMU benefited by strong
EURO and Mark, inflation below 2.4 %% despite expansionary money supply growth at
6 %, and low interest rate a 2 % to reduce unemployment rate. while US Fed
5 fund rate hikes to 2.25 %, and strong EURO drag GDP to
1.3 % , However widening German trade surplus at 16 billion boosted EURO
to 1.36 and
German Mark to new high early this year cutting into export and production
up only 1.5 % and flat, retails sales, corporate profit.
Despite recent US , China demand and Asian economic recovery boost
German economy, in the second half 2003 and 2004 German stock
is benefited by US, global stock rebound German Dax Stock index
followed Nasdaq up 70 % from 2600 to 4300 are excessive, will face
correction to 3800--4300 as China credit tightening, US rate hikes resulted
slowdown in the early
2005 and hurt by strong Euro and Franc
France suffered 500 million trade deficit due to
soaring oil prices, import. However EMU 15 billion trade surplus and soaring US trade deficit
at 55 billion will support strong F. France and EURO
French stock is getting out of corporate scandal (Vivendi) and following US
stock market correction, strong currency, falling prices, profits slowdown
The high France unemployment rate at 9,9 %, will leave room for France money
supply growth a will follow US recover gradually. Paris CAC follow Nasdaq
up 50 % is excessive, facing correction, traded in the range 3500-3900
Swiss Economy, and Stock Index :
The low unemployment rate at 3.7 %, and inflation at 2.0 % will push for
expansionary money supply and 0.65 % low interest rate , stocks and loan
demand rebound pushed banking finance stocks up 50 % UBS will be test 50-62
recovery boosted , strong EURO and S. Fr drag Swiss GDP to 1.6 % . Soaring oil prices, strong currency
cutting into Swiss trade surplus, will be traded between 1.13- 1.21 Swiss
Zurich Stock index to follow Dow Jones, facing correction, Zurich index will be in the
range 7000-7900
Italy Economy and BCI stock index:
Asian recovery and strong China, US, EURO demand lead
to soaring oil prices cutting into Italy trade surplus, strong EURO drag Italy GDP to 1.3 %,
industrial production, retail sales decline and inflation at 2.3 %
despite
EURO expansionary money supply growth at 6 %, and low interest rate at 2 %
The high unemployment rate at 8.1 %, will leave room for Italy money supply
growth and lower interest rate , soaring oil prices lead to shrinking trade
surplus EURO traded between 1.30-1.40. US recovery will gradually pulling
Italy GDP to 1.5 %, However, strong Euro drag Italy industrial production
and retail sales into recession, Italy stock index will be traded
between 1350-1490
Italy ADR shares
prices OSA, asset bubble earning warning,
| Name | Symbols | outlook. early warning | trading range |
| Benetton | BNG | price cutting, competition | 22- 29 |
| ENI | E | Oil price peaking out | 80- 110 |
| FIAT | FIA | price cutting, competition | 6,5-- 9.0 |
| Telecom Italian | TI | price cutting, competition | 30- 35 |
Spain Economy
and Madrid stock index: Asian recovery and
strong China, US, EURO demand lead to soaring oil prices pushed inflation
at 3.0 % due to EURO expansionary money supply growth at 6 %, and low
interest rate at 2 % The high unemployment rate at 10 %, will leave room for
money supply growth and lower interest rate, but housing sector already
overheated for credit tightening . US, China, Asian , EURO slowdown
and strong EURO this year will drag GDP to 2.2 % and
industrial production and retail sales facing decline. Spain stock index will be traded
between 800-960
Sweden Economy and Stockholm Stock Index
Asian recovery and strong China, US, EURO demand lead
to soaring oil prices pushed Sweden GDP to 3.9 %, However, strong EURO
cut inflation to 0.5 % unemployment rate
at 4.5 %
Sweden trade surplus. , industrial production, retails sales continue
benefited by US EURO, Asian recovery GDP to 3.8 %
Swedish Stockholm stock index will be traded between 195- 229
Belgium Economy and stock index
Asian recovery and strong China,
US, EURO demand lead to soaring oil prices , however, strong EURO kept
inflation is at 2.2 % due to the expansionary money supply growth , and
low interest rate at 2.4 % , The high unemployment rate at 13.5 %, will leave
room for Belgium money supply growth and lower interest rate. Belgium trade
surplus benefited by EURO, Asian, US recovery boosted Belgium industrial
production, however retail sales facing decline. stock index will be benefited by lower interest rates, buy on any
markets setback. it will be traded between 2511 and 2950
Holland Economy and stock
index : Asian recovery and
strong China, US, EURO demand lead to soaring oil prices s and strong EURO led
to inflation is at 1.3 % due to the expansionary money supply growth at
5.8 %, and low interest rate at 2 % unemployment rate at 6.3 % , EURO, US
recovery will pulling Holland industrial production, retail sales , but
hurting by soaring oil , metal prices, drag GDP to 1.5 %
The stock index will be traded between 310-365
Denmark Economy and Stock
Index Asian recovery and
strong US, EURO demand lead to soaring oil prices, strong EURO pushed
inflation is at 1.6 % The low unemployment rate at 6 % Soaring oil
prices cutting into trade surplus, US recovery will gradually pulling
Denmark GDP out of recession at 1.9, stock index hurt by strong EURO it
will be traded between 250-270
EURO currency :, Benefited by weak demand, import, expanded export resulted 9 billion trade surplus , soared , rate hike further pushed EURO to 1.29 earlier last year cutting into EURO export, and soaring EURO trade surplus and US trade deficit despite US rate hike led to strong EURO soared to 1.36 it will have overhead resistance around 1.40
Book Dr. Warren Huang's China/US credit tightening
impact on global recovery, capital market asset prices, risk hedging 2004 second half
global investment strategy workshops ( June Taipei, Shanghai, Beijin,
Hong Kong tour )getting ahead of the emerging trend, capitalize on China credit
tightening, US rate hike impact on global economy and capital markets, while
minimize credit, markets, operational risks.
=========Dr. Warren Huang North American China-US TV radio
interview, investment seminar Lecture =====
Dr. Huang had half hour interview by Silicon Valley Financial TV, Radio station
to speak on China/US credit tightening impact on economy and high tech/biotech
corporate performance, stock prices, Euro, E. European, Russia, China ADR
asset allocation and risk management
Global Chinese Finance Forum San Francisco
Silicon Valley High Tech/Biotech Investment
Seminar 2004
An excellent opportunity to meet with Dr. Warren Huang to discuss “Market Trend
and Outlook for Chinese Theme Stocks in US” and CEOs from five growing public
companies to learn their current projects and growth potentials.
Date: May 8, 2004 (Saturday)
Time: 9:30-3:10pm Venue: Crown Plaza
Hotel, 777 Bellew Drive, Milpitas Format: Presentation
in Chinese and English, Booths, Q&A, Lunch
visit www.GCFF>net
Global Economy and Financial Markets Asset Prices
Mechanism Simulation /Forecasts through
Dr. Huang two
OSA master hands
controlling global economy,
financial market prices ,
wrote thousands articles, and presented to 100 global central banks governors,
financial risks management conference , accurately
predicted month ahead
on 1980, 1990, energy crisis, 1992 European currency crisis, 1994- 96 China
marco-economic control, 1997 Asian Financial crisis, 1998 LTCM , Russia currency
crisis, 2000 IT bubble burst.
Thousands causes and effect structural, dynamic proven
predictive OSA
simulators beat daily money, capital, insurance, property markets ( published thousands articles, 30 million copies ( over 10 million
readers ) for reliable tracking, forecasts 3 month ahead of last 20 years
central banks monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on global/China economy,
daily capital market asset prices, bubble early warning, tailor to QFII/QDII
investment needs.
=======================================================================================
first time shown on this website
the most reliable global stock indices , currency , wealth
management OSA simulation charts
OSA Simulation Charts tracking forecasts 1-3 month
ahead monetary policy on last 20 years daily
A. Consumer spending, Fed Fund rate, Dollar exchange rate impact on Dow Jones Index
B. Japan money supply growth, Yen exchange rate, Dow Jones impact on Tokyo Nikkei index
C. EU money supply growth, EURO exchange rate, Dow Jones impact on German DAX index
D. Hong Kong money supply growth, interbank rate, Dow Jones impact on Henseng index have
E. US and EURO trade
deficit/surplus, interest rate spread impact on EURO exchange rate
F. US and Japan trade deficit/surplus, interest rate spread impact on
YEN exchange rate
Dr. Huang predicted again on Euroevents Singapore,
Shanghai, Beijin Asian/China Finance, Capital Markets Conference Nov. 2003 that
US and China underestimated excessive US rate, tax cuts, dollar plunged 30
% and soaring China consumer demand, FDI will push oil commodities, metal prices hit 23 year high
early 2004 push US, China inflation to 3. % US 10 year bond yield up 1.2 % to
4.8 % resulted 380 billion dollar loss and series rate hike after May 2004,
OSA Predictive global macro-economic control and
wealth management,
risk hedging
tracking/forecasts month ahead
the root causes, onset, spread, recovery of Asian/Global financial crisis, asset
bubble bursts
lecture to 24 global central bank governors, wealth
management, financial market risk management conferences and
millions global
central banks, banking, finance, corporate CEO, executives on this website
since 1998 , over 30 million China,
Taiwan, Asian, US , ASEAN, European
executives, investors on TV, radio programs and thousands workshops since 1985
5 Day Global
Interest Rates, Bond Yield, Oil, Gold, Metals, Downstream Stocks, Currency
Futures, Option Prices Mechanism Simulation 2005 Forecast Workshop
5 Day Global
Interest Rates, Bond Yield, Stock Indices, Currency
Futures, Option Prices Mechanism Simulation , Index, Debt Fund Asset
Allocation Strategy 2005 Forecast Workshop
Monetary, Economic, Fiscal Policy, WTO impact
on Global Economic,
Business cycles, Asset, Wealth , Prices bubbles burst, oil, energy , Currency crisis,
recession FEED FORWARD ( predicted 3-6 month ahead) SUSTAINABLE GROWTH AND ASSET PRICES STABILITY CONTROL Financial Markets
Return, Asset Allocation, Strategic Risks OSA
(RIGHT HAND )
Structural, Dynamics simulation of Monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on
last 20 years global macro economic, business cycles, capital market asset
prices, bubbles , financial crisis, boom and busts achieving growth and prices
stability control predicted 1- 3 month ahead, European n currency crisis, Global financial crisis
since 1980 and
2000 high tech bubble burst and 2001-2003 global market
crash and recovery :
Dr. Warren Huang HAS BEEN INVITED TO
SPEAK TO 24 GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS GOVERNORS CONFERENCE ( FRB, ECB, China
Peoples Bank, Taiwan, Japan, Korea, Thailand, Asian ) since 1998 warned that
Global high tech bubble burst will plunge 50-70 % and facing recession. He offered thousands
lectures accurately predicted China Peoples Banks monetary policy impact on
1994-96 macro-economic control-soft landing on China daily stock markets to
China 15 cities 30 million investors, national newspapers during 1994-1998 in
China and again predicted China excessive money supply, housing bubble facing
tightening Mar. 2003
Shanghai workshops
Thousands causes and effect structural, dynamic proven
predictive OSA
simulators beat daily money, capital, insurance, property markets ( published thousands articles, 30 million copies ( over 10 million
readers ) for reliable tracking, forecasts 3 month ahead of last 20 years
central banks monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on global/China economy,
daily capital market asset prices, bubble early warning, tailor to QFII/QDII
investment needs.
Dr. Huang accurately
predicted last 20 years daily US interest rate, commodities, gold, oil
prices daily capital market prices 4 month ahead and again at
Shanghai University of Finance, Economics, Oct. 25, Euro-event Singapore, Nov. 5,
2003 Asian Finance, capital market
conference on Monetary
policy impact on Asian and China economic outlook, asset prices, warned
that any free float of RMB will lead to China currency crisis and US
runaway inflation and repeat past global financial crisis, bubble burst.
Only Dr. Huang's two master hands
( interest rate and trade, economic policy ) market forces price mechanism
guide through RMB gradual appreciation is the best approach, regardless peg to
the dollar or a basket of currency. and
recommended
to buy Russia oils,
China A, B ADR oil, petroch( PTR, SNP, CEO), steel, aluminum share and Hong Kong
H shares due to soaring Russia China, demand, profits, DFI inflow, while sell
overheated US,
Taiwan, Singapore, Korea, Japan, German ,UK I, Euro T shares, due to price cutting.
buy with caution global banking, finance stocks due to low interest rate,
soaring housing, stock markets facing bubble burst. and continue recommendation on China
shares
on China finance, capital market conference Shanghai, Nov. 25 , Beijin,
Nov. 27 2003, but warned China stocks bubble on China economic society annual meeting, Fudan Univeristy,
Dec. 20, 2003 bubbles in China ADR share up 50 % -80 % after Dr. Huang Nov. 5
recommendation due
to hurt by China Peoples Bank credit tightening in steel, cement, auto,
housing will facing 20 %
correction , China life IPO will give up most of its gain US rate hike by May 2004, ,US dollar stabilize ,oil prices traded 28-36, gold price peaking out ,
traded 380-430
as confirmed by China People's bank Jan 5 to cut the money supply growth from
2003's 18 % to 14- 15 % this year , China leave RMB unchange and Greenspan indicated the need for rate hike
He also
accurately
predicted rising interest rate, and huge trade surplus driving Pound to 1.88, EURO to 1.28 new
high, widening UK deficit to 8 billion, cutting, EURO export, growth, profits, stocks and trade surplus,
eventually repeating 1991, forcing EURO to plunge.
( ECB will leave rate unchange to take the pressure of EURO)
excessive US
rate, tax cuts led to 19 year high commodity prices, soaring housing, stock
prices ,
will drive US CPI to 2.6 %, core inflation to 1.7 % in the summer ,
serious housing bubble will lead to ,
raise interest rate by May, 2004, China will continue credit
tightening, as confirmed by China People's bank Jan 5 to cut the money supply
growth from 2003's 18 % to 17% this year and
Greenspan indicated
the need for rate hike , EURO can not raise rate before US to take
pressure off EURO
USA
Australia
Asian Canada
China
Hong Kong Taiwan
Thailand
Japan S.
Korea
Singapore
Malaysia
Phillipines
Indonesia
Viet-Nan
India UK/EURO
Russia/E. Europe
Mexico
Argentina
Brazil
US and global markets global capital markets investment
strategic simulation tailored to your need . please email
wh3928@yahoo.com for reservation
EURO 2004 Economy, Capital Stock Market Prices, Wealth Effect OSA Forecasts
Dr. Warren Huang
predicted
on Euro-events Asian Finance,
capital market conference Singapore, Nov. 5, 2003, and China finance,
capital market conference, Shanghai, Nov. 25, Beijin, Nov. 27, 2003, to 1000
QFII asset, wealth managers, Peking University China economic research center
sponsored China economist society meeting, Shanghai, Dec. 2003 and his website
www.osawh.com that
EURO economy, will repeating 1991
currency bubble burst
( ECB will leave rate unchange to take the pressure of
EURO)at
China continue credit
tightening into 2004,US and global stocks, asset prices overheated facing US FRB
rate hike after May 2004 and China A shares, Hong Kong H share strong rebound,
EURO making new high due to soaring trade surplus, rising interest rate , is
hurting its growth and export.
He also predicted US June 1999 rate hike and
2000 IT bubble and equity wealth effect burst on
Oct, 1991 Brussels, Belgium, Large
Chemicals plant conference warning European currency bubble burst , currency
crisis ECB, JP Morgan conference on Post EURO Banking, Finance Integration
Strategy, Rome, Nov. 26, 1998
Washington area banking,
finance conference, Apr. 1999, Washington DC,
European Financial Management conference, Barcelona, Spain, June 29-30, 1999
China central bank governor sponsored global central banks policy for
sustainable growth, stability ,Macao, May, 1999, Taiwan central banks governor,
sponsored Pacific Basin economic and finance, Taipei, May, 1999
He predicted first US
first rate cut and recession and global stock follow Dow Jones plunge 40
%, Nasdaq plunged 70 % on warning to China Peoples Banks Beijin executives and
this website May, 2001 and predicted again to May , 2002 to Peking University's
Global Finance conference and Asian Business Forum, Sept 2002 Kuala, Lumpur
ABS conference ASEAN central banks, banking finance executive that US and global
stock rebound and economy recovery after retest new low first quarter 2003
Witnessed by million global
government central banks (
China Peoples Bank, FRB, ECB, IMF, World Bank , IFC )banking, securities, top
investment bankers (Citicorp, Goldman Sach, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Merrill
Lynch, Nomura, UBS, Deutch Bank, Barclay Global), multinational executives
visited this website since 1998
Hundred
thousands integrated, global structural, dynamics, deterministic proprietary
model simulators
first time shown on
this website the most reliable global stock indices , currency OSA simulation
charts
OSA Simulation Charts
tracking forecasts 1-3 month ahead monetary policy on last 20 years daily
tracking
record
A. Consumer spending, Fed
Fund rate, Dollar exchange rate impact on Dow Jones Index
B. Japan money supply growth, Yen exchange rate, Dow Jones impact on Tokyo
Nikkei index
C. ECB money supply growth, EURO exchange rate, Dow Jones impact on German DAX
index
D. Hong Kong money supply growth, interbank rate, Dow Jones impact on Henseng
index
have been developed, implemented supporting the following goal,
mission, performance oriented outsourcing strategic centers corporate/
memberships/
workshops
tailored to global government, enterprises, banking, finances enterprises board
members, think tank and executives in integrating into the global markets
decision needs:
Dr. Warren Huang, pioneer of two master hands controlling global economy and
capital market prices. Thousands causes and effect structural, dynamic OSA
simulators reliable tracking,
forecasts 3 month ahead of last 20 years global/China economy, daily
interest rates, currency, capital market asset prices, bubble early warning,
tailor to US, European, Asian QFII/QDII , investment bankers, wealth management
investment needs, He offered thousands TV, radio lectures , wrote thousands
articles on daily newspaper, investment journals to 30 millions China, Taiwan,
US 15 cities investors, VIP traders, money managers and hundreds global QFII/QDII
banking, securities , asset management, investment bankers companies CEO,
executives and corporate CFO since 1985. His OSA simulators tracking the
causes, onset, recovery of Asian, global financial crisis, asset bubble bursts,
NPL loan, invited to speak to 24 US, Asian, European central bank governors
conferences and million government, central banks, banking, securities,
investment banking corporate executives , universities visited this website
tracking accurately daily capital market prices since 1998
Dr. Huang pioneered two master hands controlling last 20
years global economy, daily financial market asset prices, accurately predicted
3 month ahead last 1980, 1990, 2001 global recession, stock market
crash, 1992 European, 1994 China, 1997 Asian and 1998 Russian currency crisis
and current US bubble burst recovery , speak to China, Taiwan, 15 cities TV,
radio, banking, finance executives, 30 million visitors and millions global
government, banking, finance, corporate CEO, executives visited this website
tracking the results .
Presented to Stockholm school economic, econometric conference, Stockholm,
Sweden Dec. 10 , 1998 ,Post EURO banking, Finance Strategy conference by JP
Morgan, Nov. 16, 1998 Rome Italy on post EURO Banking, Finance Integration
Strategy and China Peoples Bank Governor sponsored Asian Central bank governors
Policy conference, May 15, 1999, Macao and European Financial Management
Conference as, Chairman of risks in the int'l context, Barcelona, Spain, June 2,
1999 and Royal Statistical Society, on risk management conference, London, UK,
July 14, 1999 Global Finance Conference, Apr 9, 2001, Los Angeles, APEC
Finance Conference, July 25-26,2001, Bangkok, Global Finance Conference, May
27-28, 2002, Global Corporate Governance Conference Beijin, China; Asian
Business Forum on Asset Backed Securitization conference Kuala Lumpur, Sept. 30,
2002 to European, Asian Central banks, banking, securities companies and
Shanghai Jiaotung University's Pan Pacific Business Conference, May 2003
Euro-events Asian Finance, capital market conference China finance, capital
market conference, Shanghai, Nov. 25, Beijin, Nov. 27, 2003, to 1000 QFII
asset, wealth managers, Peking University China economic research center
sponsored China economic society meeting, Shanghai, Dec. 2003 and his website
www.osawh.com
European central bank (ECB) and Russia Monetary Policy on
E. European countries and Russia GDP for sustainable growth and capital markets asset price
stability)
OSA simulation of EURO
macro-economics:
Inflation rate = F (Money supply growth rate %, Oil prices,
Commodity index, EURO
exchange rate)
GNP = F (Money supply or consumer, business spending growth rate %, Interest
Rate, Export Growth Rate)
Property prices = F (Money supply growth rate %, Interest Rate, stock index)
NAPM = F( Consumer spending
growth rate %, Interest Rate, stock index)
Business, consumer spending = F( Overnite interest rate, money supply growth,
EURO , UK exchange rate unemployment rate)
Stock indices = F( Dow
Jones index), Interest rate, UK, EURO exchange rate)
Wealth Effect = F( money supply,
consumer, business spending, interest rate, currency, stock index, housing
prices)
OSA/EURO for Economy Growth and Financial Markets Simulation:: These formulas
tracking the EURO 11 member countries , UK monetary policy inter-bank interest
rate converged to 3 % and with 4.5 % money supply growth to meet 2 % inflation
and 2.5 % GNP in 1999 and Asian recovery, US soaring stocks, housing market
wealth effect pushed consumer, business demand for EURO export, weak EURO
,pushed oil price to 37, 6, rate hike resulted slowdown in business, consumer
spending , plunging prices, corporate profits, stocks prices to cool off EURO,
US economy, drag NAPM from 58 to 41.2. GNP from 7.3 % to- 0.5 %, EURO money
supply growth exceeds 4.5 % to 8.5 %, inflation 2.8 % and GDP of 3.5 % lead to
EURO 7 interest rate hike in 2000 to tightening the money supply growth to 4.5 %
and inflation to 2 %, GDP to 1.5 % , Soaring US trade deficit to 43 billion
pushed EURO from 0.83 to 1.29 cut Into EURO export and corporate earning and
drag stock prices retreat 50 % in 2002-2003 and 2004
EURO economy facing
recession in 2001-2002 , but follow US pulling out of recession gradually in
2003, Strong EURO cutting into export and economic growth
Global financial markets analysts ignoring US 6 rate hike and ECB( European
Central Bank monetary policy impact on EURO economy and, consumer demand,
corporate sales, earning, stock prices, rushing into EURO markets push for
overpriced stocks, ECB raised interest rate 7 times (from 2.5 % to 4.75 % to
achieve growth and prices stability. However inflation exceed 2 % target to 2.4
%, GDP exceed 2.5 % to 3.5 %, unemployment dip below 9.5 % due to global stock
rally resulted wealth effect and strong export due to weak EURO . However,
rising import prices (soariig oil prices cutting into EURO trade surplus from 7
billion to 4 billion lead to EURO currency depreciation to 0.83 predicted by Dr
Huang's OSA models presented Rome, Italy's EURO central banks conference on
post EURO banking and finance strategy and Barcelona, Spain's European financial
management conferences.
Falling oil prices, weak
EURO , boost EURO export and trade surplus and US recession in 2001
US current recovery and weak EURO ( Plunged from 1.18 to 1.10
boosted EURO export and trade surplus, ( 9 billion ) led EURO manufacturing
sectors barely out of recession ( NAPM is 50)however, soaring oil prices, also
boost US import and trade deficit to 44 billion pushed EURO to 1.29 in late
2003, cutting trade surplus and EURO recovery EURO Growth will be around 1.0 %
in the second half 2003 and early 2004
Dr. Huang predicted
and warned here again early Sept 2003, that global economist and market analyst
treated unemployment as lagging indicators ignoring US and global high
unemployment soaring oil, commodity prices facing rate hike late 2004 will
drag consumer confidence ( peaking out at 100) and stock prices 10-20 %
correction.
Dr. Warren Huang accurately predicted US Fed
and ECB will raise fund rate in June 1999 due to soaring stocks, properties,
oil prices, which will take US , EURO stocks and Asian stock prices into
minimum 15 % correction, and some internet , biotech stock with 50 %
corrections, Dow Jones will test 10,000, Nasdaq test 3000, Henseng test 15000,
Nikkei test 18,000, Taiwan index down to 8500 with asset bubble simulation
models on Macao's central bank governors conference, Taipei's Pacific Basin
finance conference and Washington DC NASD conferences .during April and May ,
June, Dec. 1999.
These deterministic, dynamic simulation of last 20 years global asset
prices, and economy boom and bust of the asset bubble vicious cycle of
excessive monetary policy, low interest rate induced sustained long term bull
markets stocks prices gain caused consumer and business spending in real
estate properties pushed soaring housing prices and rent. And deficit spending
(negative saving) in stock markets, pushed the stock s even higher, until
abrupt reverse of consumer and investor confidence --the bubble burst- plunge
of stocks and properties prices as it happened in US, Japan, Taiwan in 1980,
1987, 1990, energy crisis, EURO 1992 currency crisis, 1994 China runaway
inflation, 1995 Mexico crisis, 1997-98 ASEAN, Japan, Korea, Russia, Brazil
currency crisis, all caused by overpriced stock prices due to excess monetary
policy and high GDP growth
Website :
www.osawh.com email: /
whuang3928@aol.com
/wh3928@yahoo.com
Services: Global Financial Crisis, Bubble Burst simulation Early Warning, prevention Workshops , On the Job
Training program : OSA Strategic, execution teams All supported by
simulation charts for training simulators.
US , EURO stocks investors and economist are overoptimistic about US 1 Q GDP growth at 3.2 %, April PMI at 60, and rebound in housing and retail sales 2010 all due to housing stimulus credit soon to expire in April, and tax rebate resulted consumer spending rebound at 6 % will peaking out after May, Greece, Euro area debt crisis ( despite one trillion bail out to support Euro and PIGS debt crisis will not be able to solve the worst economic, financial crisis in EURO history since WWI, it will ,drag GDP growth to 1 %and recession , dollar appreciation from 1.5 to 1.20 , US Fed to remove more than 1 trillion excessive liquidity from capital market already cut m2 money supply growth from year ago 10 % peak to March 1.3 %euro will further slowdown US export growth in the second half , facing credit tightening, rate hike as summer inflation heat up , China credit tightening slow GDP to 8 % by year end , India, Austria, Korea interest rate hikes will slow down GDP growth , leading to US export decline related while any further exit strategy, credit tightening, inflationary control, rate hikes will lead to economic growth double dip to below 2.5 % by year end . US stocks are extremely overpriced , subject to 20- 30 % correction.
Dollar reach 4 year high against Euro to 1.22, Euro debt crisis drag economy to the edge of recession and China, Asian credit tightening fighting housing price bubble, inflation facing GDP slowdown to 7.5 % 4Q, US removing excessive liquidity, credit tightening, M2 money supply growth drow to 1.3%, facing slowdown in the second half after tax rebate and housing stimulus is over, oil prices plunge fro 88 to test 66- 69 near term, rebound to 82, gold price facing resistance above 1250 due to strong dollar and economic slowdown, plunging oil prices, will be trade 1200- 1260.
Dow Jones, NASDAQ, S&P stock index forecasts
Dow Junes will be return to consolidate in 9000- 9900 soon , NASDAQ test 2000- 2200, S&P test 1000- 1100 , London Financial Times index test 5000 , DAX test 5200 and may test in second financial crisis dip triggered by Greek and PIGS countries debt crisis, inflation control, US China/Asian slowdown,