Simulation forecast of monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on Global ETF exchange traded fund perofmrnace

Fund Name	Ticker	Category	3mo Return Mkt%	OSA tracking, analysis, forecast
SSgA BRIC 40 Index
iShares MSCI Taiwan Index	EWT	Pacific/Asia ex-JapanStk	14	Overpriced due to heavily weighted Taiwan Electronic IT shares following US Nasdaq IT facing slowdown while finance shares facing merger speculation bubble burst
iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index Fund	FXI	Pacific/Asia ex-Japan Stk	26	Overpriced due to China credit tightening, US facing slowdown impact on finance property,
iShares MSCI South Korea Index	EWY	Pacific/Asia ex-Japan Stk	19%	Overpriced due to Electronic IT shares following US Nasdaq IT facing slowdown
Power shares FTSE RAFI Energy	PRFE	Specialty natural resource	14	Overpriced due to Electronic IT shares following US Nasdaq IT facing slowdown while finance and export oriented shares facing China , US export slowdown and strong Yen 2.89%
iPath MSCI India Index	INP	Pacific Asia ex-Japan	23	Overpriced due to Electronic IT shares following US Nasdaq IT facing slowdown while finance and export oriented shares facing China , US export slowdown and strong Yen 1.19%
SPDR S&P China	GXC	Track index share fund	26	Overpriced due to China credit tightening, soaring oil, commodity, prices, inflation and , rising interest rate
iShares MSCI Australia Index	EWA	Pacific/Asia ex-Japan Stk	10	Overpriced due to Electronic IT shares following US Nasdaq IT facing slowdown while finance and export oriented shares facing China , US export slowdown and strong Yen 24.48%
﹛	EFA	Foreign Large Blend	12.07%	Overpriced due to Electronic IT shares following US Nasdaq IT facing slowdown while finance and export oriented shares facing China , US export slowdown and strong Yen 13.50%
iShares MSCI Pacific ex-Japan	EPP	Pacific/Asia ex-Japan Stk	18.05%	Overpriced due to Electronic IT shares following US Nasdaq IT facing slowdown while finance and export oriented shares facing China , US export slowdown and strong Yen 23.44%
iShares NYSE Composite Index	NYC	Large Blend	9.38%	Overpriced due to Electronic IT shares following US Nasdaq IT facing slowdown while finance and export oriented shares facing China , US export slowdown
iShares MSCI Malaysia (Free) Index	EWM	Pacific/Asia ex-Japan Stk	13.45%	Overpriced due to Electronic IT shares following US Nasdaq IT facing slowdown while finance and export oriented shares facing China , US export slowdown
iShares MSCI Singapore (Free) Index	EWS	Pacific/Asia ex-Japan Stk	8.85%	Overpriced due to Electronic IT shares following US Nasdaq IT facing slowdown while finance and export oriented shares facing China , US export slowdown
iShares Morningstar Mid Core Index	JKG	Mid-Cap Blend	12.07%	Overpriced due to old economy and IT shares US facing slowdown while finance export oriented shares facing China , US export slowdown and sN/A
NASDAQ BLDRS Emerging Markets 50 ADR Index Fund	ADRE	Diversified Emerging Mkts	17.52%	Overpriced due to Electronic IT shares US facing slowdown while finance export oriented shares facing China , US export slowdown
iShares MSCI Switzerland Index	EWL	Europe Stock	13.77%	Overpriced due to old economy and Electronic IT shares facing slowdown, hurt by strong EURO while finance export oriented shares facing China , US export slowdown
Vanguard Small-Cap VIPERs	VB	Small Blend	15.69%	Overpriced due to old economy and Electronic IT shares US facing slowdown while finance export oriented shares facing China , US export slowdown
iShares MSCI Brazil (Free) Index	EWZ	Latin America Stock	22.50%	Overpriced due to old economy and Electronic IT shares US facing slowdown while finance export oriented shares facing China , US export slowdown

* All non-intraday data as of 30-Nov-04
OSA Forecast, investment Strategy for Global Specialty ETF

Fund Name	Ticker	Category	﹛	OSA Analysis, Forecast, Investment Strategy
Energy Select Sector SPDR	XLE	Specialty-NaturalRes	15	Global demand and supply shortage supporting higher prices, However, global slowdown in 2006 will limit upside potential
Vanguard Energy VIPERs	VDE	Specialty-NaturalRes	15	Global demand and supply shortage supporting higher prices, However, global slowdown in 2006 will limit upside potential
iShares Dow Jones US Energy	IYE	Specialty-Natural Res	16	Global demand and supply shortage supporting higher prices, However, global slowdown in 2006 will limit upside potential
Market vector steel	SLX	natural resource	17	Global demand and supply shortage supporting higher prices, However, global slowdown in 2006 will limit upside potential
SPDR SP mining	XME	natural resource	10	Global demand and supply shortage supporting higher prices, However, rising interest rate, global slowdown will face bubble burst
Ultra oil& gas	DIG	natural resource	29	housing bubble and consumer spending resulted soaring demand for oil and gas in summer
Int;l Energy	DKA	Specialty- Natural resources	16	Global demand and supply shortage supporting higher prices, However, rising interest rate, global slowdown in 2006 will face bubble burst
iShares S&P Global Energy Sector	IXC	Specialty-NaturalRes	﹛

Dr. Warren Huang CV photo accurately warned, predicted on US, ECB, China, Taiwan, Asian central bank governors, financial risks management conference, SINA.COM and this website 1999- Jan 2000 that US asset bubble burst, Nasdaq will plunge from 5100 to 1500 , QQQ plunge from 100 to 30, Dow Jones index plunge from 11700 to 7500. and again Nov. 5, 2003 in Singapore ,Shanghai Euroevents conferences , and this website that US Oil, commodity prices reaching 23 year high, inflation up 5 % in May 2004 job creation, productivity, profit growth peaking out in the second quarter 2004 Fed June 0.25 % rate hike China credit tightening, follow US rate hike in summer 2004,
  China Macroeconomic control tracking, forecasts: Despite China Peoples Bank raised deposit ratio by 1.5 % and cutting capital investment in steel, cement, aluminum, auto loan lead to some progress macroeconomic control with June money supply growth at 16.2 % (below 17 % target), auto sales down 20 %, asset prices, inflation retreat from May ( benefited by oil, commodities prices down 15 % ). However June producer, consumer price still up 9.2 % ( coastal cities Beijin, Shanghai GDP up 14 %) from year ago, wealth effect, FDI drive housing prices up 28 % for coastal cities Shanghai, Ninbo first half GDP up 9. 7 % far above 7 % target, medium, long term loan up 32 % repeat 1994 , This supply side tightening are insufficient to cool the uneven economic overheating, will follow US rate hike in Aug implement structural rate hikes to cut off excessive consumer demand in housing, construction materials, auto and retails achieve soft landing Apr. 2005, China and Global bull markets are over, entering bear market consolidation. He also predicted Oct. 1994 to China Wuhan securities news, Wangguo, Kuotai securities investors, Beijin China Financial Times, China macroeconomic control will be soft-landing 1996, Shanghai A will be traded between 600- 800 during 1994- 1996 He recommended that China stocks will be very attractive to QFII in the new Millennium
Global central banks, economist, financial market , industrial sectors analysts ignoring ,Dr. Huang photo warning to ECB, JP Morgan in Rome, China Peoples Bank governor Dai central bank governors conference in Macao, Taiwan central bank governor Asian Pacific conference Taipei, APEC finance Thailand prime minister, ASEAN central bank governors conferences in Bangkok, US Fed governors , Washington Area, NASD finance conferences 1998-2000 on IT asset bubble bursts
US macroeconomic, inflation control tracking, forecasts: Dr. Huang spoke to Euro-events Singapore , Shanghai, Beijin Nov. 2003 Asian/China Finance, Capital Markets conferences lecture to 2000 QFII, QDII mutual fund managers and China Economist annual meeting Dec. 20 and www.osawh.com website and thousands workshops warning US, global analysts over optimistic economic recovery, job creation, underestimated on the impact of US dollar depreciation, excessive rate, tax cuts , 45 trillion dollar housing, equities wealth effect resulted excessive consumer, business demand, soaring oil, commodities, metals asset prices bubble reaching 23 year high in March, soaring China steel, cement, aluminum investment (over 120 %), coal, energy shortage, China stocks bull market is over, entering bear market consolidation, with Shanghai A testing 1300-1400, IPO and newly listed small cap shares plunge 30-50 % , low prices blue chips shares like Sinopec, Unicom will lead future rebound.   US trade deficit soared to 48 billion and inflation, facing credit tightening, rate hikes after May 2004, profit , productivity growth , consumer confidence, business spending peaking out, facing squeeze in summer 2004, Job creation peaking out at March 370,000, May 230,000, June 110,000, stock prices peaking out in the third quarter, facing consolidation. US High tech, finance, housing, retails, auto share will plunge 30-50 % and trillion dollar loss in bond and stock markets and trillion dollar profits in oil, commodity futures investments
Wall Street Market Research OSA Market Tracking, Forecasts: Global Capital Markets Asset prices tracking, forecasts:
Dr. Huang lectured to 50 European, Asian, Malaysian central banks, banking, finance executives Kuala Lumpur, Sept. 30, 2002 predicted that oil prices soared to 43, Dow Jones retest 7500 Nasdaq 1250, March 2003 on Asian Business Forum.   He lectured Nov. 2003 lectured to Euro-events Singapore http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/ photos 1, 2, 3 lecture ppt , Shanghai, Beijin Nov. Asian/China finance, capital Markets conferences, www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm2003   picture 2 and to China economists meeting Fudan University, Shanghai , Dec. over 2000 QFII/QDII executives, identify housing, equities wealth effect bubbles   month ahead, investment opportunities in China petrochemical upstream/downstream, steel, aluminum, telecommunications ADR , Shanghai A and Hong Kong H shares, mutual fund up 80 % IPO shares up 150 % and early warning for asset bubbles in oil, commodities prices reaching 23 year peak( recommended invested in future, derivatives gained 5000 %) in March 2004, will drive China CPI to 5 %, with steel, cement over-invested 170 % and energy shortage will lead to further credit tightening, accurately predicted China Peoples bank raise bank reserve ratio 0.5 % to 7.5 % open market inter-bank rate (Chibor)must stay above 3.% to remove 110 billion from the capital markets, US CPI to 5.1 %, core inflation to 2.7 % in the summer , overoptimistic over US economic recovery and job creation,( despite March strong 300,000 new jobs can not sustainable after June quarter tax rebate is over ( June job creation already down to 32,000) and inflation outlook may lead to rate hike after May and summer lead to serious bond market plunge (US lose 380 billion dollar, China lose 270 billion) housing bubble repeat 1995 bond market crash and 2000 election bubble and global IT and blue chips banking shares will peaking out in July facing and correction 2004, Market speculators using Dell 29 % profit gain to push Dell and High tech, and blue chips is premature, Dell will facing pricing cutting from HP holiday sales and general economic slowdown, Dell stock will plunge below 30, IBM test 80. Global IPO will facing 30-50 % correction as Google plunged from 196 to 80-100, any attempt using IPO to speculate market rebound will be followed by sell off bear trap Dow will be traded 9550- 10300, Nasdaq 1750- 2000 , S&P 1000-1150, Taiwan index post election bubble burst from 7200 to 5000- 5500, Henseng 10500- 13200, Nikkei 10000- 11900, China credit tightening continue. Shanghai A 1250- 1500, Shenzhen 3000- 3550, Euro : 1.24- 1.29 , Yen 105- 110, US, Asian and European stocks follow US stocks rebound in the third quarter 2004 will gave up all this year gain China and US economic slowdown will drag global economic growth, stocks ( including IPO )facing 30-50 % bear market correction consolidation
Dr. Warren Huang CV   30 years pioneering development, implementation of strategic investment, supply chain, process operations improvement, value chain optimization Operations Simulation Analysis (OSA) experiences with corporate finance of US Mobil, AMOCO, Phillips Petroleum, Stauffer Chemicals, Bechtel, Fluor, Kaiser, Bailey Controls headquarters and Taiwan, China, Asian government, thousands investment banking, securities, insurance state, medium, small enterprises, offered thousands lectures, executives strategic workshops for China, US, Taiwan 15 cities TV, radio 30 million banking, securities companies CEO, CFO, fund managers, investors and 300,000 importer/ exporter members .
He pioneered two master hands controlling global economy, daily capital market prices. through simulation/forecast of monetary, economic, fiscal, WTO policy impact on last 20 years US, China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Japan, 40 countries economy, daily capital market asset prices ( interest rate, currency, commodity, oil, metals, stocks indices futures, derivatives, 20 industrial sectors 5000 products market economy market forces demand, prices mechanism, profit margin, listed stocks, option prices). bubbles, causes, onset, recovery early warning for global currency, financial, banking crisis, always predicted 3 month ahead monetary policy, interest rate and its impact on global capital markets emerging bull/bear trends for strategic reform, change management, investment banking, dynamic asset allocation in value, growth, speculation investing in stocks ( among different sectors, big, medium, small cap), bond, commodity, capitalize the investment opportunities in fast changing crisis, avoided trillion dollar market loss