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OSAGlobal Strategic Management
Proactive structural dynamic China/Global Multiclass
capital market asset prices and Optimal Long Short ETF, and Strategic ETF
indexing arbitrage Performance simulators predict global
emerging bull bear market trend 3 month ahead, maximize return ,
minimize last 20 years Basel II risks for 30 millions global QFII/QDII managers
,investors in asset allocation, avoided trillion dollar NPL loss, achieve
sustainable profit growth Global markets are not
immune from US market bear market correction due to mortgage default credit
crisis, as global banking, finance stocks followed US banking, finance stocks
into bear market correction (plunged 30- 50 % and oil stocks follow
China PetroChina stock down 50 % SSaG BRIC 40 ETF down 25 %, as Dow
Jones plunged below 12000.
www.osawh.com Chinese
(中文)
The What, Why, How and When ( Timing ) of global strategic ETF (Exchange traded
Fund), asset allocation and portfolio selections over 40 countries stock
indices , 20 industrial
sectors, 5000 products microeconomics demand, market forces prices mechanism,
profit margin, stocks, bond, commodities prices simulation,
forecast since 1984.
Strategic ETF
indexing arbitrage Performance simulators US Dow Jones, S&P 500, NASDAQ optimal long short ETF strategy
by OSA Global Strategic Investment
Pioneer Dr. Warren Huang
Proactive US Capital Markets global stocks indices, index fund
ETF Structural Dynamic Operations Simulation Analysis, Real Time
Stock, ETF SSgA
BRIC 40 index multiclass oil, gas, commodities, global equities, real
estate REIT Asset Prices Mechanism Forecast, Tracking global central banks monetary, economic, fiscal
policy, WTO policy impact on macro economic inflation, daily interest rate,
currency, energy, metal, commodities futures prices, 20 industrial sectors
supply demand impact on corporate profit earning, stock prices, ETF
performances, stay years, months ahead of the emerging bull, bear
market trend
covers various diversified products stocks, bond, real estate, by
geographical, countries and small, large caps and various industries
sectors (hi-tech, biotech, healthcare, energy, metal, commodities)
Dr. Warren Huang
(黃華南博士)
Pioneer,
proactive structural dynamic global inflation, macro economy, daily financial
markets interest rates, currency, stock, bond, derivatives, housing,
commodities, oil asset pricing and risks valuation markets fundamentals price
mechanism, accurately warned on Wall Street Journal Market beat Blog Sept.19,
2007 and Mar 5, 2008 masterclass workshop China fund world
2008, Pudong, China warning to Goldman Sach managing directors JPM,
UBS and 150 China QDII/QFII fund managers that US housing price slump
continue into summer 2008 drag economy into inflationary recession and US,
global stock indices bear market 30- 50 % , Dow Jones test 11500, NASDAQ PLUNGE
30 % and high fliers (GOOG, PTR, AAPL) , IT, retail
stocks facing 30-50 % correction, with banking,
finance, housing share price plunge 50- 70 %, dollar making to new low, oil
price and gas , commodity prices doubled, ,widening
bond spread and failure in MBS/CDO, Bear
Stearn 30 billion dollar MBS hedge fund ,despite Fed rate cuts He also
warned top QFII management on
Peking Univ June 2007 International Financial Engineering Conference that
China overheated housing, stock market wealth gain resulted inflation over 8.7
% will lead to China Peoples Bank credit tightening to remove excessive
liquidity, Housing, stock markets follow US housing price slump, recession,
bear market correction, with Shanghai A testing 2750-3000 till summer
2008, stamp tax for stock trading cut to 1 % provide initial support to 3000 level,
and plunged again to 2750- 3000 after Dow Jones plunged to
12000,commodities, oil asset pricing and risks valuation markets fundamentals
price mechanism, ,capital on the emerging bull, bear market trend through
optimal long- short strategic asset allocation. portfolio management, He
recommended US mutual fund ( US oil fund follow oil , gas price doubled
Ultra short financial, up 70 %, Ultra short QQQ ( Nasdaq ) UP 30 %. ,
and recommended ETF: US natural gas up 100 % as natural gas
soared from 6 to 12., and Japan crude oil fund up 100, as oil price doubled
from 70 to 139. and Oppenheimer Commodities up 90 % as, corn, soybean
price doubled
Do not miss this proactive structural price mechanism based strategic financial modeling and
risks valuation, simulation for investment , trillion dollar recession hedging strategy workshops
series by OSA proactive solution pioneer
Dr.Warren Huang millions
of global /China top fund managers and investment management teams bring their
management/s operating problems into our strategic fund allocation and
wealth management workshops. take home billion dollar proactive structural
solution, avoided trillion dollar housing, stock market loss due betting on the
wrong side of interest rates and bull/bear market trend, ready to
implement
He will offer the following workshops to the banking, finance, real
estate industries.
US/China 2008 Housing, Oil, Commodities, Equities Price Bubbles
Overheating, inflation, Currency Trilemma OSA:
5
-Day Workshop : Global Interest rate, Dollar, Stock Indices, Oil, Gold, Metals
and Housing, Equities Bubbles price Forecast , Long-Short strategy
impact on Stocks Prices, Futures, Derivatives Prices
Market Forces Mechanism Simulation, Forecast, ETF Risks Hedging
, Investment Strategy
5 Day CEO , CFO, traders, fund managers
Proactive Structural Oil. Commodity, Currency, Housing Multi-Class Asset
Pricing, Allocation Long-Short Strategy in-house Workshop
2008 Proactive Structural Asian/China/US/European QFII Strategic Investment Banking/Capital
Markets Research and Decisions Operations Simulation Analysis (OSA)
Workshops
5 Day 2008 China Macroeconomic, Housing , equities bubble control and
Default Crisis Early Warning
5
Day 2008 US Macroeconomic, Housing , equities bubble
control and Default Crisis Early Warning
5 Day 2008 UK
Macroeconomic, Housing , equities bubble control and Default Cri3928sis
Early Warning Dr.
Warren Huang predicted to Asian Business Forum's Beijin workshop to ExxonMobil, ARAMCO ,
Merril Lynch, HSBC, VP, Phillips Petroleum CEO, 100 multinational
oil, banking CEO, executives in Beijin Feb and Nov.
2005,
that oil prices will soar to 69 ,in summer 2005, metal
prices to new high in January 2006 and oil prices will hit 80 in summer 2006,
recommended
oil, energy, metals futures, stock, ETF doubled due to soaring US, China
inflation will raise rates throughout summer
2006.,
Fed fund rate will go to 5.5 % , China raised lending
rate Apr. 28 to 5.85 % gasoline futures will to 265,
metals , commodity continue making new high , drive
CPI
to 4.3 % in March and higher in the month ahead.
US Fed fund rate 10 yr. bond yield will go to 5.5 %, stocks, bond facing
correction give up all 2006 gain ahead.
He
predicted to Asian Money manager and QFII executive Nov. 2005 Beijing
that China A share rebound from 1000 into bull markets Jan 2006
Special announcement: As of March 31,
2005, all www.osawh.com
global finance, capital market forces mechanism simulation
forecasts will be provide www.osaglobalstrategicmanagement.com/resources2.html
and www.osaglobalstrategicmanagement.com/oilgas.html and
proactive global ETF, mutual fund investment update through www.osaglobalstrategicmanagement.com/ETFfund.html
its proactive structural dynamic OSA forecast provide weekly/monthly forecast,
update, it accurately predicted Oil price soared to 78, US trade deficit
soared above 66
5
Day Global Interest Rates, Bond Yield, Stock Indices, Currency Futures,
Option Prices Mechanism Simulation ,ETF, Index, Debt Fund Asset Allocation
Strategy 2005 Forecast Workshop
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Dr. Warren Huang CV photo accurately warned, predicted on US,
ECB, China, Taiwan, Asian central bank governors, financial risks management
conference, SINA.COM and this website 1999- Jan 2000 that US asset
bubble burst, Nasdaq will plunge from 5100 to 1500 , QQQ plunge from 100
to 30, Dow Jones index plunge from 11700 to 7500. and again Nov. 5, 2003
in Singapore ,Shanghai Euroevents conferences , and this website that US Oil,
commodity prices reaching 23 year high, inflation up 5 % in May 2004 job
creation, productivity, profit growth peaking out in the second quarter
2004 Fed June 0.25 % rate hike China credit tightening, follow US rate hike in
summer 2004,
China
Macroeconomic control tracking, forecasts: Despite China Peoples
Bank raised deposit ratio by 1.5 % and cutting capital investment in steel,
cement, aluminum, auto loan lead to some progress macroeconomic control
with June money supply growth at 16.2 % (below 17 % target), auto sales down 20
%, asset prices, inflation retreat from May ( benefited by oil,
commodities prices down 15 % ). However June producer, consumer price still up
9.2 % ( coastal cities Beijin, Shanghai GDP up 14 %) from year ago, wealth
effect, FDI drive housing prices up 28 % for coastal cities Shanghai, Ninbo
first half GDP up 9. 7 % far above 7 % target, medium, long term loan up 32 %
repeat 1994 , This supply side tightening are insufficient to cool the
uneven economic overheating, will follow US rate hike
in Aug implement structural rate hikes to cut off excessive
consumer demand in housing, construction materials, auto and retails
achieve soft landing Apr. 2005, China and Global bull markets are over,
entering bear market consolidation. He also predicted Oct. 1994 to
China Wuhan securities news, Wangguo, Kuotai securities investors,
Beijin China Financial Times, China macroeconomic control will be
soft-landing 1996, Shanghai A will be traded between 600- 800 during
1994- 1996 He recommended that China stocks will be very attractive to QFII in
the new Millennium
Global central banks, economist, financial market , industrial sectors analysts
ignoring ,Dr. Huang photo warning to
ECB, JP Morgan in Rome, China Peoples Bank governor Dai central bank governors
conference in Macao, Taiwan central bank governor Asian Pacific conference
Taipei, APEC finance Thailand prime minister, ASEAN central bank governors
conferences in Bangkok, US Fed governors , Washington Area, NASD finance
conferences 1998-2000 on IT asset bubble bursts
US macroeconomic, inflation control
tracking, forecasts: Dr. Huang spoke to Euro-events Singapore , Shanghai, Beijin Nov. 2003 Asian/China Finance, Capital Markets
conferences lecture to 2000 QFII,
QDII mutual fund managers and China Economist annual
meeting Dec. 20 and www.osawh.com website and thousands
workshops warning
US, global analysts over optimistic economic recovery, job creation,
underestimated on the impact of US dollar depreciation, excessive rate, tax
cuts , 45 trillion dollar housing, equities wealth effect resulted
excessive consumer, business demand, soaring oil, commodities, metals asset
prices bubble reaching 23 year high in March, soaring China steel, cement,
aluminum investment (over 120 %), coal, energy shortage, China stocks bull
market is over, entering bear market consolidation, with Shanghai A testing
1300-1400, IPO and newly listed small cap shares plunge 30-50 % , low prices
blue chips shares like Sinopec, Unicom will lead future rebound. US
trade deficit soared to 48 billion and inflation, facing credit tightening,
rate hikes after May 2004, profit , productivity growth , consumer confidence,
business spending peaking out, facing squeeze in summer 2004, Job
creation peaking out at March 370,000, May 230,000, June 110,000, stock
prices peaking out in the third quarter, facing consolidation. US High tech,
finance, housing, retails, auto share will plunge 30-50 % and
trillion dollar loss in bond and stock markets and trillion dollar profits in
oil, commodity futures investments
Wall Street Market Research OSA
Market Tracking, Forecasts: Global Capital Markets Asset prices
tracking, forecasts:
Dr. Huang lectured to 50 European, Asian, Malaysian central banks, banking,
finance executives Kuala Lumpur, Sept. 30, 2002 predicted that oil prices
soared to 43, Dow Jones retest 7500 Nasdaq 1250, March 2003 on Asian Business
Forum. He
lectured Nov. 2003
lectured to Euro-events Singapore http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/ photos 1, 2, 3 lecture ppt , Shanghai, Beijin Nov. Asian/China finance, capital Markets
conferences, www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm2003
picture 2 and
to China economists meeting Fudan University, Shanghai , Dec.
over 2000 QFII/QDII executives, identify housing, equities wealth effect bubbles month ahead,
investment opportunities in China petrochemical
upstream/downstream, steel, aluminum, telecommunications ADR , Shanghai A and
Hong Kong H shares, mutual fund up
80 % IPO shares up 150 % and early warning for asset
bubbles in oil, commodities prices reaching 23 year peak(
recommended invested in future, derivatives gained 5000 %) in March 2004, will drive China CPI to 5 %,
with steel, cement over-invested 170 % and energy shortage will lead to further
credit tightening, accurately predicted China Peoples bank raise bank reserve
ratio 0.5 % to 7.5 % open market inter-bank rate (Chibor)must stay above 3.% to
remove 110 billion from the capital markets, US CPI to 5.1 %, core
inflation to 2.7 % in the summer , overoptimistic over US economic recovery and
job creation,( despite March strong 300,000 new jobs can not sustainable
after June quarter tax rebate is over ( June job creation already down to
32,000) and inflation outlook may lead to rate hike after May and
summer lead to serious bond market plunge (US lose 380 billion dollar,
China lose 270 billion) housing bubble repeat 1995 bond market crash and 2000
election bubble and global IT and blue chips banking shares will peaking out in
July facing and correction 2004, Market speculators using Dell 29 %
profit gain to push Dell and High tech, and blue chips is premature, Dell will
facing pricing cutting from HP holiday sales and general economic
slowdown, Dell stock will plunge below 30, IBM test 80. Global
IPO will facing 30-50 %
correction as Google plunged
from 196 to 80-100, any attempt using IPO to speculate market rebound will be
followed by sell off bear trap Dow will be traded 9550-
10300, Nasdaq 1750- 2000 , S&P 1000-1150, Taiwan index post
election bubble burst from 7200 to 5000- 5500, Henseng 10500- 13200, Nikkei
10000- 11900, China credit tightening continue. Shanghai A 1250- 1500, Shenzhen
3000- 3550, Euro : 1.24- 1.29 , Yen 105- 110, US, Asian and European stocks
follow US stocks rebound in the third quarter 2004 will gave up all
this year gain China and US economic slowdown will drag global economic growth,
stocks ( including IPO )facing 30-50 % bear market correction
consolidation
Dr.
Warren Huang CV 30 years
pioneering development, implementation of strategic investment, supply chain,
process operations improvement, value chain optimization Operations Simulation
Analysis (OSA) experiences with corporate finance of US Mobil, AMOCO, Phillips
Petroleum, Stauffer Chemicals, Bechtel, Fluor, Kaiser, Bailey Controls
headquarters and Taiwan, China, Asian government, thousands investment banking,
securities, insurance state, medium, small enterprises, offered thousands
lectures, executives strategic workshops for China, US, Taiwan 15 cities
TV, radio 30 million banking, securities companies CEO, CFO, fund managers,
investors and 300,000 importer/ exporter members .
He pioneered two master hands controlling global economy, daily capital
market prices. through simulation/forecast of monetary, economic, fiscal, WTO
policy impact on last 20 years US, China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Japan, 40
countries economy, daily capital market asset prices ( interest rate, currency,
commodity, oil, metals, stocks indices futures, derivatives, 20 industrial
sectors 5000 products market economy market forces demand, prices mechanism,
profit margin, listed stocks, option prices). bubbles, causes, onset, recovery
early warning for global currency, financial, banking crisis, always predicted
3 month ahead monetary policy, interest rate and its impact on global
capital markets emerging bull/bear trends for strategic reform, change
management, investment banking, dynamic asset allocation in value,
growth, speculation investing in stocks ( among different sectors, big,
medium, small cap), bond, commodity, capitalize the investment opportunities in
fast changing crisis, avoided trillion dollar market loss
20 yrs daily global
market tracking Capital Market Banking e-Business e-Government
Monetary Policy Asset Bubble Biotech/Healthcare
EMBA/CEO Basel II Risk control Business Process Outsourcing Strategic Alliance OSA
Strategic Sourcing Strategic E-Procurement Supply chain
optimization Marketing/Sales
Strategy Integrated Strategic SRM/ERP/SCM/CRM /Logistics
4PL
Logistics Integration Simulation
US
Economy/Capital Markets Asset Prices, Bubble Simulation, early
warning :
OSA Markets Forecast Interest rate/bond
stock indice future Index fund ETF
US
hot stocks , Global ADR
US
banks-finance Oil, Gas Price Info-100 Silicon
-100 Weekend Edition IPO pricing profit
early warning Beat stock indice future Beat
Forex Currency futures Commodity Futures Oil/energy futures Gold/metal futures Housing
Bubble Basel II credit risks
market risks
operational risks control Knowledge Management
Asian Economy/Capital Markets Japan China Korea Taiwan Singapore
Hong Kong India Malaysia
China
Economy/Capital Markets Asset Prices, Bubble Simulation, early warning :
Shanghai/Shenzhen A/B/IPO China small cap
China ADR China mutual fund/ commodity/
bond Hong
Kong H Red Chips NPL Asset Management QFII/QDII strategy
Supply
Chain Logistics Housing Bubble
Strategic OSA maximize China oil/petrochemical
upstream/downstream profit workshops (
Beijin workshop)
Strategic Wealth Management Value Investing Asset Prices
bubbles Dynamic Asset allocation
interest rate/bond yield
Beat stock indice future Beat
Forex Currency Commodity Futures Oil/energy futures Gold/metal futures Beat Global ADR Market Risks Hedging Strategy Venture Capital Risks
control
Structured Financial Engineering Asset
securitization Syndicated Loan Basel II Risk control
Strategic
Investment Banking: strategic IPO,
pre/post merger/acquisition performance
e-Personal Life planning Strategy Intelligent
Knowledge Management Strategic
e-commerce Value Chain Optimization
Adaptive enterprises Change
Management Basel II Risk control
Monetary macroeconomic policy Industrial
finance Industrial Economy Regional
Economy Investment
banking Globalization
Strategy e-Gov reform strategy Banking/Finance Reform
Enterprise Reform e-Biz
Strategy OSA models Process Improvement
Business
Process Optimization Global Strategic Solution
Consulting Corporate Governance
Global
Crisis OSA Risk Management Basel II Risk control
Adaptives e-Learning-Education Breakthrough
leadership/strategy CEO workshop Breakthrough Venture capital
strategy CEO workshop Rose vegetable Garden
Commodity
futures WTO, import/export pricing
Feedback
Annual Memberships
Strategic Out-Sourcing Centers
Human resources OSA
teamswa
Global central banks, economist, financial
market , industrial sectors analysts ignoring , photo warning to ECB, JP Morgan in Rome, China Peoples Bank
governor Dai central bank governors conference in Macao, Taiwan central bank
governor Asian Pacific conference Taipei, APEC finance Thailand prime minister,
ASEAN central bank governors conferences in Bangkok, US Fed governors ,
Washington Area, NASD finance conferences 1998-2000 on IT asset bubble
bursts
and again to Euro-events Singapore , Shanghai, Beijin Nov. 2003 Asian/China Finance, Capital Markets
conferences lecture to 2000 QFII,
QDII mutual fund managers and China Economist annual
meeting Dec. 20 and www.osawh.com website and thousands
workshops warning
US, global analysts over optimistic economic recovery, job creation,
underestimated on the impact of US dollar depreciation, excessive rate, tax
cuts , 45 trillion dollar housing, equities wealth effect resulted
excessive consumer, business demand, soaring oil, commodities, metals asset
prices bubble reaching 23 year high in March, soaring China steel, cement,
aluminum investment (over 120 %), coal, energy shortage, China stocks bull market
is over, entering bear market consolidation, with Shanghai A testing 1300-1400,
IPO and newly listed small cap shares plunge 30-50 % , 90 % fund
investment in steel, power, petrochemicals suffered loss in the second quarter.
However low prices blue chips shares like Sinopec, Unicom will lead future
rebound. US trade deficit soared to 48 billion and inflation,
facing credit tightening, rate hikes after May 2004, profit , productivity
growth , consumer confidence, business spending peaking out, facing
squeeze in summer 2004, Job creation peaking out at March 370,000,
May 230,000, June 110,000, stock prices peaking out in the third quarter,
facing consolidation. US High tech, finance, housing, retails, auto share will
plunge 30-50 % and trillion dollar loss in bond and stock
markets and trillion dollar profits in oil, commodity futures investments
US inflation rate at 5.1% in May, with consumer spending up 1%, consumer
confidence above 100, more rate hikes are required to cool off the
economy.
China and US economic slowdown will drag global economic growth, stocks facing
consolidation.
He lectures Nov. 2003 lectured to
Euro-events Singapore http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/ photos
1, 2, 3 lecture ppt , Shanghai, Beijin Nov. Asian/China finance, capital
Markets conferences, www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm2003
picture 2
and to China economists meeting Fudan University, Shanghai , Dec.
over 2000 QFII/QDII executives, identify
housing, equities wealth effect bubbles month ahead, investment opportunities in China petrochemical
upstream/downstream, steel, aluminum, telecommunications ADR , Shanghai A and
Hong Kong H shares, mutual fund up
80 % IPO shares up 150 % and early warning for asset
bubbles in oil, commodities
prices reaching 23 year peak( recommended invested in future,
derivatives gained 5000 %) in
March 2004, will drive China CPI to 5 %, with steel, cement
over-invested 170 % and energy shortage will lead to further credit tightening,
accurately predicted China Peoples bank raise bank reserve ratio 0.5 % to 7.5 %
open market inter-bank rate (Chibor)must stay above 3.% to remove 110
billion from the capital markets, US CPI to 5.1 %, core inflation to 2.7
% in the summer , overoptimistic over US economic recovery and job creation,(
despite March strong 300,000 new jobs can not sustainable after June
quarter tax rebate is over and inflation outlook may lead to rate hike
after May lead to serious bond market plunge (US lose 380 billion
dollar, China lose 270 billion) housing bubble repeat 1995 bond market crash
and 2000 election bubble and global IT and blue chips banking shares will
peaking out in July facing and correction 2004, Dow will be traded 9750-
10500, Nasdaq 1750- 2050 , Taiwan index post election bubble burst from
7200 to 5300- 6000, Henseng 10500- 12500, Nikkei 10000- 12500, China
credit tightening continue. Shanghai A 1300- 1450, Shenzhen 3100- 3450, Euro :
1.18- 1.25 , Yen 105- 110, US, Asian and European stocks follow US stocks
rebound in the third quarter 2004 will gave up all this year gain
Dr. Huang accurately predicted on this website that US
mutual fund more than doubled in return, facing 2001-2002 bubble burst, plunged
20 - 50 %, rebound in the second quarter 2003 benefited by excessive rate, tax
cuts, dollar depreciation resulted corporate profit, stock prices rebound. He
recommended energy, metal, commodity for 2004 investment,( China energy, metals
ADR shares, mutual fund up 80 %) warned again Nov. 2003 in Singapore, Shanghai
Asian/China capital markets conference to 2000 QFII/QDII mutual fund managers
that global bond facing 10 % correction stocks, mutual fund facing 30-50 %
correction after March 2004 due to soaring oil, commodities, metal prices
reaching 23 high resulted inflation will force US, China rate hike, credit
tightening after May 2004,
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Nasdaq 100 index |
QQQ |
29- 39 slowdown , profit squeeze |
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Dow Jones Industrials |
DIA |
90- 105 soaring oil, peaking out in consumer, business demand |
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S&P |
SPY |
100- 119 soaring oil, peaking out in consumer, business demand |
US energy, metal mutual fund enjoyed top ranking
He accurately predicted in March 2004 that global energy, commodity,
metal future prices overheated, will peaking out , facing 10- 30 % correction
in summer due to China credit tightening, US rate hike. He recommended on May
8, May 15 US Silicon Valley workshops, radio interview to buy oversold
energy, commodity, metal , IT shares and gold fund, enjoyed 25 % rebound in 2
weeks on China Unicom, Yahoo, Sinopec, CEO (China offshore oils), gold price
rebounded from 365 to 410, all these shares and mutual fund are overpriced now
for correction
http://poweredby.morningstar.com/selectors/aolTop25/UNV5YR.html
=========================================================
Taiwan's domestic fund will follow Taiwan stocks index for
consolidation in post election bubble bursts and US markets for consolidation
in 5300- 5750 , while top ranking Japan small caps mutual fund will
follow US and China stocks for consolidation, correction. http://tw.money.yahoo.com/fund/
http://finance.sina.com.cn/jjzj/
Dr. Huang warned to China Peoples Banks banking, finance executives
that China Shanghai fund index follow Shanghai A index making 35 %
correction, plunged from 1366 to 980 as Shanghai A plunged from 2200 to
1450 in July 2001
Dr. Huang accurately recommended Nov. 5, 2003 in Singapore,
Shanghai to buy China petrochemicals, Unicom, and mutual fund, soared 80 % in
one month , fund index rebound from 898 to 1230. Dr. Huang warned
Dec 2003 to Shanghai economist meeting that Shanghai shares, mutual fund
overheated for 30- 50 % correction due to further macroeconomic control credit
tightening after March 2004. , Shanghai fund index plunged to 910 will retest
880, despite recent technical rebound, Shenzhen fund index will retest 800
詳細行情請見中國期貨基金行情操作模擬分析
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Profund wireless Svc |
WCPSX |
5000 |
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ING Russia A |
LETRX |
1000 |
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Dimen Japan Small co |
DFJSX |
2000000 |
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US Global Eastern Europe |
EUROX |
5000 |
|
Scudder Global Biotech A |
DBBTX |
2000 |
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Scudder Global Biotech C |
DBBCX |
2000 |
|
Scudder Global Biotech B |
DBBBX |
2000 |
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OSA Global Optimal Strategic
Dynamic Asset Allocation Simulation/Forecasts, Your most powerful daily predictive
decision tools
Dr. Huang accurately
predicted by thousands structural dynamic simulators Nov. 5, 2003 in Singapore
,Shanghai Euro-events conferences , and this website that US Oil, commodity
prices reaching 23 year high, in March 2004, inflation up 5 %, China CPI
up 4.4 % job creation, productivity, profit growth peaking out in the
second quarter 2004 China credit tightening, Fed June 0.25 % rate hike US
and global corporate profit squeeze, stock prices, mutual fund peaking out in
March, 2004.
Global central banks, economist, financial market , industrial sectors analysts
ignoring ,Dr. Huang's warning to ECB, JP Morgan in Rome, China
Peoples Bank governor Dai central bank governors conference in Macao, Taiwan
central bank governor Asian Pacific conference Taipei, APEC finance Thailand
prime minister, ASEAN central bank governors conferences in Bangkok, US
Fed governors , Washington Area, NASD finance conferences 1998-2000
on IT asset bubble bursts
and again to Euro-events Singapore , Shanghai, Beijin Nov. 2003 Asian/China Finance, Capital Markets
conferences lecture to 2000 QFII,
QDII mutual fund managers and China Economist annual
meeting Dec. 20 and www.osawh.com website and thousands
workshops warning
US, global analysts over optimistic economic recovery, job creation,
underestimated on the impact of US dollar depreciation, excessive rate, tax
cuts , 45 trillion dollar ousing, equities wealth effect resulted
excessive consumer, business demand, soaring oil, commodities, metals asset
prices bubble reaching 23 year high in March, soaring China steel, cement,
aluminum investment (over 120 %), coal, energy shortage, China stocks bull
market is over, entering bear market consolidation, with Shanghai A testing
1300-1400, IPO and newly listed small cap shares plunge 30-50 % , low prices
blue chips shares like Sinopec, Unicom will lead future rebound. US
trade deficit soared to 48 billion and inflation, facing credit tightening,
rate hikes after May 2004, profit , productivity growth , consumer confidence,
business spending peaking out, facing squeeze in summer 2004, Job
creation peaking out at March 370,000, May 230,000, June 110,000, stock
prices peaking out in the third quarter, facing consolidation. US High tech,
finance, housing, retails, auto share will plunge 30-50 % and
trillion dollar loss in bond and stock markets and trillion dollar profits in
oil, commodity futures investments
US inflation rate at 5.1% in May, with consumer spending up 1%, consumer
confidence above 100, more rate hikes are required to cool off the
economy.
China and US economic slowdown will drag global economic growth, stocks facing
consolidation.
He lectures Nov. 2003 lectured to
Euro-events Singapore http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/ photos
1, 2, 3 lecture ppt , Shanghai, Beijin Nov. Asian/China finance, capital
Markets conferences, www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm2003
picture 2
and to China economists meeting Fudan University, Shanghai , Dec.
over 2000 QFII/QDII executives, identify
housing, equities wealth effect bubbles month ahead, investment opportunities in China petrochemical
upstream/downstream, steel, aluminum, telecommunications ADR , Shanghai A and
Hong Kong H shares, mutual fund up
80 % IPO shares up 150 % and early warning for asset
bubbles in oil, commodities
prices reaching 23 year peak( recommended invested in future,
derivatives gained 5000 %) in
March 2004, will drive China CPI to 5 %, with steel, cement
over-invested 170 % and energy shortage will lead to further credit tightening,
accurately predicted China Peoples bank raise bank reserve ratio 0.5 % to 7.5 %
open market inter-bank rate (Chibor)must stay above 3.% to remove 110
billion from the capital markets, US CPI to 5.1 %, core inflation to 2.7
% in the summer , overoptimistic over US economic recovery and job creation,(
despite March strong 300,000 new jobs can not sustainable after June
quarter tax rebate is over and inflation outlook may lead to rate hike
after May lead to serious bond market plunge (US lose 380 billion
dollar, China lose 270 billion) housing bubble repeat 1995 bond market crash
and 2000 election bubble and global IT and blue chips banking shares will
peaking out in July facing and correction 2004, Dow will be traded 9750-
10500, Nasdaq 1750- 2050 , Taiwan index post election bubble burst from
7200 to 5300- 6000, Henseng 10500- 12500, Nikkei 10000- 12500, China
credit tightening continue. Shanghai A 1300- 1450, Shenzhen 3100- 3450, Euro :
1.18- 1.25 , Yen 105- 110, US, Asian and European stocks gave up all this year
gain and follow US stocks rebound to new high in the third quarter 2004
Shanghai Aug. 21-24, Taipei Sept 11- 15,
Singapore Sept 19-20, Kuala Lumpur Sept 22- 23 ,
email osawhh@citiz.net for in-house workshops reservation
(covered thousands lectures, 46
countries capital cities 30 million government, banking, finance
corporate CEO, CFO, fund managers, senior executives investors since 1983
by 80 )
Speaker, Dr. Warren Huang, Pioneer, Global leader, scholar
in Global Strategic Investment , Risks Management
Pioneer, two maaster hands controlling global economy, capital market asset
prices, crisis, bubble early warning
Speaker, Dr. Warren Huang, Pioneer, Global leader, scholar in
Global Strategic Investment , Risks Management
Pioneer, two maaster hands controlling global economy, capital market asset
prices, crisis, bubble early warning
for oil, petrochemicals and
downstream end users 20 industrial sectors :housing, construction material,
auto, appliances, IT, metals 5000 products market economy market forces demand, prices mechanism OSA/ forecast,
supporting last 20 years investment, supply chain logistics strategy
(workshops)
Published 14 paper series 1979- 1983 on US Oil & Gas Journal , Hydrocarbon
Processing and 20 English articles, US patents, millions copies published
by US Hydrocarbon Processing, advanced control-information system handbook 1991-2003
www.osawh.com/hp2001h.html
circulation to 80 countries 1600 multinationals , lectured to American
Institute of Chemical Eng. Diamond Jubilee Meeting, Washington DC, World
Congress, Chemicals Eng. Montreal, Tokyo, Frankfurt, Paris, Prague 46 countries
capitals Chemical Eng, OPEC ministers conferences published thousands Chinese
articles o daily newspapers, economic, finance, industrial economic
newspapers , 300,000 import/exporters 100 countries currencies, export
pricing in Taiwan, China.
Manufacturing Process
Operations Improvement and Power plant integrated Strategic SRM/ERP/SCM/CRM
/Logistics Operations Improvement for cost/quality performances:
de-bottleneck, waste/energy minimization, maximize top grade products yields,
minimize off grade loss, power blackout early warning.
Complete in-depth
strategic OSA for your suppliers, manufacturing process, your customers,
end-users and your competitors, book
your workshops : Oil,
gas, refining Olefin/polyolefins styrene, derivatives fibers/ plastics pulp/paper IT upstream/ downstream
Housing, construction
matrial Power
Plant Optimization auto,
appliance
========================Special
Announcement==============================
Due to Dr. Huang's busy US,
Asian workshops demand for US/China credit tightening, soaring oil prices
impact on 2004 second half US/Asian market investment strategy, He will
stop updating his US markets data webpages starting May 10, 2004).
join Dr. Huang's full day workshops
provide the latest forecasts, investment opportunities, risks early warning
for 2004 global economy, capital markets prices, Global Currencies, ADR
shares , mutual fund asset management investment opportunities, global
central banks monetary policy makers, financial, capital markets, CEO,
executives, investors book your strategic workshops
email osawhh@citiz.net , wh3928@yahoo.com
for reservation
All this website recommendation are for investors references, not
responsible for any financial loss,
Dr. Huang has copy right on it contents, should not be used for any
commercial use without approval
Registration and Information: Please visit www.GCFF.net
US and China Credit
tightening, rate hike impact, soaring oil prices impact on global capital
markets asset prices, risks
By?Dr. Warren Huang, Global
leader and pioneer in Global capital markets asset prices simulation, early
warning, risks management OSA???wh3928@yahoo.com??USA
Goal and
Mission
OSA inviting you to our quantitative models forecast for ?/span>Global/
China Economy and Capital Market Asset Prices, Bubbles early warning, Market
Risks Simulation and Asset Allocation , Profit Optimization in-house
executives? workshops, predicting month ahead , the? causes, onset, recovery,
of last 20 years?asset bubbles , financial, currency, banking, crisis, early
warning?and daily capital markets trends, business cycles, prices movement ,
market, interest rate, liquidity risks simulation, forecasts , supporting
China/ global?banking, QFII/QDII , fund, risk managers optimal global asset
allocation, portfolio markets risks management strategy?banking, finance,
enterprises reform , minimize BASEL II?market risks capital requirement risk control,
integrate into credit, liquidity, interest rate, business cycle,
operational?risks control, maximize risk adjusted sustainable profit, market
share growth
Dr. Huang will introduce?his 20 years pioneering work of two master hands
controlling global capital markets asset prices by his thousands structural ,
dynamic capital market Operations Simulation Analysis models simulators
tracking simulate, forecasts?US/China monetary, economic, fiscal , WTO policy impact on last
20 years macro-economic control, rate hikes, currency,?global?economic recovery
and capital markets assets ( 20 industrial sectors 5000 products, demand,
prices, listed companies profit margin,?stocks, bond,?commodities futures,
derivatives prices ),?and associated?risks, return, asset allocation, portfolio
selection, risk management in post WTO China /global capital markets related
markets, credits ( nonperformance loan) operational risks?...
?/span>===========================================================================
workshop
highlights for integrated markets, credit, operational risks simulation,
control
I. Markets risks Operations Review: covering last 10 years market risks, loss,
causes, onset, recovery.
II. Setup profit, cost, risks, quality, performance oriented strategic ( top
management), execution (managers) Basel II market risks Operations Simulation
Analysis teams, monitoring, report, tracking, simulation, early warning for
corporate risk control?
These
workshops will bring you millions global/China?executives?feedback? from
thousands of our past? credit, market, operational, liquidity risks simulation,
early warning, workshops , forecasts the what, why?of how and when
of?global?market forces controlling last 20 years global/China?economy, asset
prices, avoided trillion dollar markets loss due to following the crowd,
chasing , speculating on business, economic news.
A?Monetary, Economic Fiscal Policy, WTO impact on Greater China /Global
Economic Recovery, business cycles : GDP, inflation, Trade, unemployment, FDI:?
China? Hong Kong? Taiwan? Singapore?US,??/span>?/span>Europe,?
Russia?Japan,?Korea??
B. China/Global Monetary, Economic, Fiscal Policy, WTO Impact?on China Capital
Markets, Fund return and risks:
?/span>China? Hong Kong?
Taiwan?Singapore??US,?EMU
EURO / Eastern
Europe,?Russia?Japan,?Korea??
. Inflation, Interest rates,
bond yield , futures,?derivatives, swaps, fixed income fund?forecasts risks
early warning
. Multinationals, China state enterprises reform
privatization and IPO performance, stock, warrant, pricing strategy
·Strategic Corporate Governance, supervision,
financial systems monitoring , simulation, stock prices bubbles, Oxley-Sarbanes
scandals early warning for Operational Risks Control.
·Banking, finance reform, IPO,? Securities, Banking, Insurance Basel II markets
risk control, supervision early warning
. Causes, onset,?recovery, early warning of
Global/China financial, currency, asset bubble crisis and NPL loan assets
?currency, credit, market risk simulation, hedging, plant equipment performance
and syndicated loan, securitization
?Strategic China QFII/DFII, for domestic and foreign US/ IPO and ADR, global equities markets listing
pricing risks.
?Equity fund capital markets:?Shanghai, Shenzhen A,B ,Henseng, Blue chips, Red chips, H share, Taiwan?Japan, US,
Russia,?global? indices futures,? derivatives?prices
mechanism,?Forecasts, Hedging strategy
. RMB pricing mechanism , global currency
market?futures, derivatives prices , swaps, forecasts, risk hedging
.Global IT, Biotech?bubble
recovery, housing, auto, steel?bubbles demand, prices, earning, stocks,
derivatives, warrants prices , fund performances simulation, risk control.
.Oils, metals commodity futures,
derivatives?prices, earning, stock , warrants prices , fund performance,
hedging? risks.
?Shanghai, Shenzhen A, B,
Taiwan, Hong Kong, US?listed stocks, bond?corporate earning, stock prices,
futures, warrants prices simulation, fund, derivatives risks hedging
.China/Global oils, petrochemical,
fiber?corporate earning, stocks, warrants?prices, fund performance, risks
hedging
?/span>China / Global
mutual fund performance , investment and asset allocation, risk
control?strategy
. China/ Global
Strategic pre/post Mergers & Acquisitions, MBO performance, stock prices,
investment risk strategy
?Assets ( Auto, credit cards ) and
Mortgage Backed Asset Securitization prices, defaults risks ,early warning simulation
?a href="housefinst.html">China/Global equities and housing?wealth
effect? simulation and?bubbles early warning, NPL?risks control?
.China /Global Debt, equities,
money, energy, gold , index?mutual?fund performance, asset allocation
risk management
China /Global monetary, economic, fiscal policy, WTO impact on Japan, Asian
economy, capital markets prices Mutual fund Optimal Asset?Allocation strategy:
US?China Hong Kong?Taiwan? Singapore, Malaysia, Japan? Korea,?Thailand,?India?
Eastern Europe/Russia?EURO
III Risks systems and business process integration:
Setup Strategic profit, costs, quality, market shares, performance oriented
core business strategic and execution OSA teams, integrating into Basel II
Operational, Market, credit risks and corporate governance internal, external
audit OSA teams to performance daily tracking, monitoring and monthly strategic
review and decisions analysis changes
==============================================================================================
Who should attend:
Listed domestic, global multinationals, SOE, SME companies. IPO?board members,
CEO, CFO, managing directors, asset,?fund managers, banking, securities
underwriting, trading managers, insurance Basel II risk managers, auditors,
regulators, investment bankers, equities, currency, bond, commodity futures,
traders, investors.
Costs and Benefits: Dr. Huang’s round trip San Francisco Air
fare, hotel plus lecture fee
workshop will tell you the what, why and how, timing to capitalize on trillion dollar
market risks investment opportunities, while minimize market, credit,
operational risks associated Basel II capital requirement avoided chasing the
markets resulted trillion dollar loss in global banking, financial crisis,
asset bubble bursts. Maximize sustainable profit, market shares during global
crisis.
Language:?Mandarin or English
?/span>Reserve your? in-house workshops ?osawhh@citiz.net??
( Chinese)??or wh3928@yahoo.com? (
English )
Dr. Warren Huang? has 30 years pioneering?Wall Street research (
develop, two master hands, thousands structural, dynamic global economy,
financial markets Operations Simulations Analysis (OSA)?out of? last 20 years
daily US, Asian, European Wall Street Journals, Business Week, London Financial
Times, China, Taiwan, Hong Kong economics, financial times newspapers market
news, economist, market analyst, investment bankers analysis, investors
psychology information knowledge base for US major oils,?Taiwan, China
government, banking, securities, insurance, properties companies, state ,
medium enterprises global investment ,supply chain?and market risks control
strategy.
He has been invited to speak on the causes, onset, spread , recovery of last 20
years global financial, currency, banking, energy, crisis, asset bubble burst
early warning, credit, markets ,operational risks management?to 24 global
central banks governors ( China Peoples Bank, US, Taiwan, ECB, Asian central
banks) and financial, credit, markets, operational?risk management, Shanghai
world economic forum? conferences; offered thousand executives investment
strategy, risk management workshops to million US, China, Taiwan, Hong Kong,
Asian, European government, banking, securities, insurance, properties cos CEO,
CFO, money managers and daily, weekly China/global financial markets commentary
for?China, Taiwan , US 15 cities ( Shanghai, Beijin, Shenzhen, Taipei, San
Francisco ) 30 million?TV, radio? financial executives, VIP? investors since
1994
He has been keynote speaker, offered full day workshops for IBC European
Hedging fund management conference , London,? IBC Asia, Asian Business Forum
and EURO-EVENTS conferences in Singapore, Kuala Lumpur, Beijin, Shanghai, North American investment seminar, and securities, asset
management companies in? San Francisco applying his two master hands ?/span>simulators
tracking monetary , economic, WTO policy impact on last 20 years and current?
global economy daily capital markets asset prices, 300,000 Taiwan
importer/exporters 100 countries currency export prices quote, commodity, raw
materials import strategy OSA, accurately predicted root causes, onset,
recovery of? 1987 global stocks crash, 1980, 90, 2000 and current?energy
crisis, 1992 European currency crisis, China 1989, 1994 macroeconomic control
and 1996 soft-landing , 1997-98 Asian Financial, Russia currency crisis, 2000
US, global IT bubble burst, recession , recovery and?current China credit
tightening
?/span>
Dr. Huang’s 20 years global
tracking record:, always predicted 3-6 month ahead global financial
, stock indices, currency, energy, commodity futures and asset bubble burst crisis, avoided trillion dollar
market loss and NPL loan. Minimize Basel II loss,
risk capital requirement
China experience :He offered thousands lectures to
30 million China nationwide 13 cities TV, radio 30 million investors,
VIP trader, asset managers and nationwide national securities news papers and
thousands workshops for hundreds nationwide banking, securities, insurance,
properties CEO, manager, daily securities news accurately predicted China macro-economic
control, credit tightening , Shanghai A traded between 600-800 during 1994-96
and first rate cut, soft landing, March 1996, and warning on Asian, Hong Kong
financial crisis. 1997-1998. He accurately predicted on his website and
Shanghai workshop March 2003 China A share rebound to 1650 and again in May
warned Steel, auto, housing market overheating led to China Peoples Bank credit
tightening, raise deposit ratio 1 % in Sept.2003 and 0.5 % again in Apr 2004
?/span>
Tracking results witness by million
global government finance, education, central banks, banking, finance,
insurance, medical, corporate executives, academics from 78 countries visited
our www.osawh.com website
for global strategic investment and risks management
Goal and Mission, performance oriented ?workshops tailored to your
need,
Choose your own subjects
for each half day session
2004 Global Economy and Financial
Markets Asset Prices Mechanism
Simulation /Forecasts through
Dr. Huang's two OSA master hands you are in good hands for global central banks
macro-economic control , prices stability and capital market prices simulation,
forecasts , value investing
strategy, mutual fund optimal asset allocation equities, bond,
currency investment, portfolio management, wealth management, risk hedging tracking/forecasts
month ahead the root causes, onset,
spread, recovery of Asian/Global financial crisis, asset bubble bursts lecture to 24 global central
bank governors, wealth management, financial market risk management conferences
and millions global
central banks, banking, finance, corporate CEO, executives on this website since 1998 , over 30 million China, Taiwan, Asian, US , ASEAN, European executives,
investors on TV, radio programs and thousands workshops since 1985 predicted 2000-
2003 global IT stocks and mutual fund
bubble burst and US global banking, old economy blue chips , Buffet Berkshire,
big cap value stocks mutual fund plunged 50- 70 % July 2001 to Beijin China Peoples Bank executives and on this website
and predicted US and global stocks rebound March 2003 Dow Jones rebound from
7300 to 10,000, Nasdaq from 1200 to 2200 Japan Nikkei rebound from 7500 to
12000, , emerging market Taiwan, Russia index almost double and index mutual
fund 80 % rebound on Kuala Lumpur Asset Securitization conference to 50 central
bank, banking, finance, executives Sep , 2002 again in 2003 to Euro-events Singapore http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/ with excellent feedback photos
1, 2, 3 lecture ppt , Shanghai, Beijin Nov. Asian/China Finance, Capital
Markets conferences, www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm2003 picture 2 , 2000 QFII, QDII mutual fund managers , identify month ahead, investment opportunities in China ADR
Hong Kong H shares, China blue chip petrochemicals, SNP,
telecommunication Unicom A shares and value investing China mutual fund and IPO
shares up 80 % and and to China economists meeting Fudan University, Shanghai , Dec.
2003 early warning for asset bubbles in energy, metals commodities
prices doubled, reaching 19 year peak, ( invested in future,
derivatives gained 5000 %, mutual fund up 80 %) will drive China inflation to 4
%, China Peoples banks further credit tightening will drive GDP to 7 % in the
second half despite first Quarter GDP of 9.4%,
US entering second leg economic recovery due to excessive rate, tax cut
, following last year third quarter first leg boom bubble corporate earning soared 76 % with
overheated consumer over 100), investor confidence ( exceeds 1987) and ISM purchaser
manager index over 66. while current quarter bubble with business confidence
reaching 10 year high, consumer confidence will challenge 100 again, 300,000
new job created, soared consumer demand, housing start, durable orders will
continue into third quarter and peaking out , bubble burst thereafter following rate hike, second
quarter bubble CPI to 2.6 %, core
inflation to 1.7 % force Greenspan raise interest rate after
May and summer , overoptimistic
over US economic recovery and job creation, inflation outlook serious housing bubble will lead to rate
hike, despite high unemployment in the election year and global IT and blue
chips banking shares and its mutual fund
facing and correction 2004, Dow will be traded 9750- 10500, Nasdaq 1850- 2090 , Taiwan index 5300-6000, Henseng 10500- 14000, Nikkei
10000- 12000, China credit tightening continue.
?/span>