US Sept. consumer confidence plunge to 38, ISM manufacturing purchaser index plunge to 38 and jobless rate to 6.5 % and Dow Jones plunged 40  % third quarter GDP contract 0.3 %core inflation up 2.9 %, warned, predict by me Sept. 2007 on this blog that US  housing slump continue , will entering double dip inflationary recession 3Q 2008 despite rate cuts, stimulus, bail out plan and extends into deeper recession contracting by 2 % in 4Q 2008 and 1Q 2009,  resulted by  full impact o business, consumer spending decline due to 6.5 % jobless and 20 % housing slump, 40 % stocks market loss
  The real causes of current mortgage, credit, financial crisis and recession are due to poor financial, monetary policy decision modeling in asset pricing and  risks valuation mechanism, MBS, CDO , the burst of super housing, commodities asset price bubbles caused by 7 year longest expansive excessive money supply, easy credit policy .
Global central banks, financial markets financial decision still rely on 30 year old probabilistic, statistical Capital Market Asset Pricing (CAPM) and macroeconomic modeling, ignoring asset price impact on inflation and financial, housing , MBS, CDO prices.
Predicted by Dr. Warren Huang, pioneer of Proactive Global Asset Pricing Mechanism , June 2007 , Beijing, Wall Street Journal Economic, Market Beat
 Blog Aug.2007   and March 5, 2008 Pudong, China Fund World 2008 to 200 global top investment banking, fund managers that Global Housing price bubble burst, prices plunge 30 % into 2009, drag  global economy into recession and stocks bond, oil,  commodities, metals ,Derivative Asset Prices Bubbles Burst with 50 % Price Correction Cause Credit, Financial Crisis and Economic Recession, ( As Dow Jones, SP 500, NASDAQ drag global stock indices plunged more than 50 % into 2002 recession low ,( Dow Jones  after current consolidate in 8000- 9000 will test 7000, NASDAQ test 1250, S&P test 700 low, oil price plunged 50 % from 147 to 60，Gas oil from1300 to 650 , corn  from 800 to 350, cotton from 80 to 44 as global economy  enter deep recession by year  end, despite US 700 billion  and ECB 2.3 trillion bail out to stabilize credit crisis

details on www.osawh.com/Fedcrisab.htm  www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm www.osawh.com/commody.html www.osawh.com/centmaf.html

 Dr. Warren Huang (黃華南博士) Pioneer, proactive structural dynamic global inflation, macro economy, daily financial markets interest rates, currency, stock, bond, derivatives, housing, commodities, oil asset pricing and risks valuation markets fundamentals price mechanism, accurately warned on Wall Street Journal Market beat Blog Sept.19, 2007 and Mar 5, 2008 masterclass  workshop China fund world 2008, Pudong, China  to Goldman Sach managing directors JPM, UBS and 150 China QDII/QFII fund managers that  US Fed aggressive rate cuts drag dollar to 1.53-1.65 EURO, 95- 108 Yen, economic stimulus boost consumer spending on gasoline and jet fuel summer, demand, driving gasoline , heating oil to 415, oil price to 121-145, commodity price double, will peak out as US dollar rebound follow Fed ending rate cuts cycle , can not stop sub-prime crisis spreading, regional  housing price slump 30-50 %  and credit crisis, crunch crisis continue through  2009 drag economy into 2009 repeating 1980  double dip  inflationary recession resulted trillion housing and stock market loss and US, global stock indices  and oil, commodities , metals price bubble burst bear market  50-70  % , Dow Jones test 6000- 7000  NASDAQ PLUNGE testing  1100-1250-  and high fliers (GOOG, PTR, AAPL) , IT, retail stocks facing  50-- 70 % correction,    with banking, finance, housing share price plunge 70- 90   %, dollar making to new low 85- 90 Yen,   commodity prices doubled,  and bubble burst plunge 50-70 % % in recession widening bond , CDS spread and failure in MBS/CDO, Bear Stearn 30 billion dollar MBS hedge fund and government steps rescue, Lehaman bankruptcy,  Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac AIG,bail out,  despite Fed rate cuts . , oil price plunge from 147 to 40, copper plunged from 350 to 115, corn from 600 to 350,  He also warned top global QFII management on Peking  Univ June 2007 International Financial Engineering Conference that China overheated housing, stock market wealth gain resulted inflation over 8.7 % will lead to China Peoples Bank credit tightening to remove excessive liquidity, Banking housing, stock markets follow US housing price slump, recession, bear market correction, and China 568 billion infrastructure program maintain 2009 GDP at 8 % and stbilize stock markets, Shanghai traded 1500- 2100 through 2008- 09  early 2009  until economy softlanding
China is suffering from housing market overheating, with 300 % gain in housing prices still  up 0.5 % , FIXED investment , consumer spending still up 22 %, first 9 month GDP still up 9.9 %, CPI drop to 2.4% in Oct.2008 % after   China peoples Bank 6  rate hikes, 16 bank deposit rat hike to 17.5 %. China need to further cut its M2 money supply growth  from 15 % to 12 %start rate cuts to support 2009 growth while next year to achieve housing price cut of 30 %, CPI to 3 %, GDP to 8 % to achieve soft landing and start of bull market stock rally

 He will  offer the following workshops to the banking, finance, real estate industries.
5 Day CEO , CFO, traders, fund managers Proactive Structural Oil. Commodity, Currency, Housing Multi-Class Asset Pricing, Allocation Long-Short Strategy in-house Workshop
 2008  Proactive Structural Asian ( India, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore, Vietnam )/China/US/European  QFII Strategic Investment Banking/Capital Markets Research and Decisions  Operations Simulation Analysis (OSA) Workshops
5 Day 2008 China Macroeconomic, Housing , equities bubble control  and Default Crisis Early Warning
5 Day 2008  US  Macroeconomic, Housing , equities bubble control  and Default Crisis Early Warning
5 Day  2008 UK  Macroeconomic, Housing , equities bubble control  and Default Cri3928sis Early Warning China/ Hong Kong  Strategic Management -Neuro-economic  OSA  models forecasts, mission control help central banks stay ahead of inflation, asset bubbles macro-economic cycles control,, forecast the cause, onset, recovery of  China, Hong Kong , Asian Financial crisis and global capital markets

Monetary, Economic, Fiscal Policy, oil prices , China, US rate hikes impact on Japan  Economy, Demand, Capital markets price

Monetary Policy on  inflation, GNP and economic indicators  for sustainable  growth and asset price stability)
OSA simulation  macro-economics:
Inflation rate = F (Money supply growth rate %, Oil prices, Commodity index, Dollar exchange rate)
GNP = F (Money supply growth rate %, Interest Rate, Export Growth Rate)
Property prices = F (Money supply growth rate %, Interest Rate, stock index)
NAPM = F( Consumer spending growth rate %, Interest Rate, stock index)
Business, consumer spending = F( Overnite interest rate, money supply growth,  exchange rate)
Stock indices = F( US Dow  index), Interest rate,  exchange rate
 Wealth Effect = F( money supply, consumer, business spending, interest rate, currency, stock index, housing prices)
by OSA pioneer Dr. Warren Huang who pioneer OSA proactive, structural oil, energy, downstream products prices simulation, patented, published on US Oil& Gas Journal 1983, Hydrocarbon Processing information systems handbook 1991-2005, millions copies circulated to 78 countries
China Optimal Proactive Structural  Monetary Policy Trilemma ( Inflation asset bubble, Capital Market, Currency) Problem Solution:

Comment by Warren Huang Wall Street Journal  Real Time Economy  Blog-  June 19, 2008 at 2:00 pm

I warned early this year to World Bank East Asia blog that East Asia and emerging market  economy can not be delink from US monetary policy rate cuts related soaring oil price , inflation and credit tightening.
World Bank is right that China facing 7 % inflation in 2008  due to soaring oil, commodities prices and continued business, consumer demand with first 5 month inflation around 8 %, and recent raise  fuel price 18 % with make it hard to achieve 5 % inflation target, despite China Peoples bank raised bank deposit rate 15 times to 17.5 %.
details on  www.osawh.com/Chinab.html  www.osawh.com/Fedcrisab.htm

Do not miss this proactive strategic investment , trillion dollar hedging strategy workshops series by OSA  proactive solution pioneer Dr.Warren Huang
Millions of global /China top fund managers and investment management teams bring their management/s operating problems into our strategic fund allocation and  wealth management workshops. take home billion dollar proactive structural solution, avoided trillion dollar housing, stock market loss due betting on the wrong side of interest rates and bull/bear market trend, ready to implement 
 Dr. Warren Huang (黃華南博士) Pioneer, proactive structural dynamic global inflation, macro economy, daily financial markets interest rates, currency, stock, bond, derivatives, housing, commodities, oil asset pricing and risks valuation markets fundamentals price mechanism, accurately warned on Wall Street Journal Market beat Blog Sept.19, 2007 and Mar 5, 2008 masterclass  workshop China fund world 2008, Pudong, China warning to Goldman Sach managing directors JPM, UBS and 150 China QDII/QFII fund managers that US housing price slump continue into summer 2008 drag economy into inflationary recession and US, global stock indices bear market 30- 50 % , Dow Jones test 10000-11500, NASDAQ PLUNGE 30 % and high fliers (GOOG, PTR, AAPL) , IT, retail stocks facing 30-50 % correction,    with banking, finance, housing share price plunge 50- 70 %, dollar making to new low, oil price and gas , commodity prices doubled,  ,widening bond spread and failure in MBS/CDO, Bear Stearn 30 billion dollar MBS hedge fund ,despite Fed rate cuts He also warned top QFII management on Peking Univ June 2007 International Financial Engineering Conference that China overheated housing,( still up 8.2 % in June, stock market wealth gain resulted inflation over 8.7 %in Feb and 7.9% above 5 % target) first half, GDP at 10.4 is too high ( above * % target of 8 %) will lead to China Peoples Bank credit tightening to remove excessive liquidity, Housing, stock markets will have to follow US housing price slump,  bear market correction,( There is no Olympic Rally  with Shanghai A testing  22550- 2600- till summer 2008, stamp tax for stock trading cut to 1 % provide initial support to 3000 level, and plunged again to 2750- 3000  after Dow Jones plunged to 11000,commodities, oil asset pricing and risks valuation markets fundamentals price mechanism,  Shanghai index has support by China SINOPEC, PetroChina  component stock rebound from 2750 to 3000. capitalize on the emerging bull, bear market trend through optimal long- short strategic asset allocation. portfolio management, He recommended US mutual fund (  US oil fund follow oil , gas price doubled Ultra short financial,  up 70 %, Ultra short QQQ ( Nasdaq ) UP 30 %. , and  recommended ETF: US natural gas up  100  % as natural gas soared from 6 to 12., and Japan crude oil fund up 100, as oil price doubled from 70 to  147. and Oppenheimer Commodities  up 90 % as, corn, soybean price doubled   
 
Proactive Structural Strategic Solution: Forecast months ahead  last 20 years US/global  Housing mortgage default, Credit, Financial Crisis Operations Simulation Analysis , The Causes, onset, spread, recovery, early warning , and consequences through Monetary, Economic, Fiscal Policy Impact on Economic Recession, Real Time Financial Market Prices Mechanism and Systemic Instability Basel II credit, Market, Operational  Risks Early Warning 

 US/China 2009 Housing, Oil, Commodities, Equities Price Bubbles Overheating, inflation, Currency Trilemma OSA:
5 -Day Workshop : Global Interest rate, Dollar, Stock Indices, Oil, Gold, Metals and Housing, Equities Bubbles price Forecast , Long-Short strategy
 impact on Stocks Prices, Futures,  Derivatives  Prices Market Forces Mechanism Simulation,  Forecast, ETF  Risks Hedging , Investment Strategy
5 Day CEO , CFO, traders, fund managers Proactive Structural Asset Pricing, Allocation Long-Short Strategy in-house Workshop

Dr. Warren Huang was risk management panelist and  full day master class workshop lecturer for  Terrapinn China Fund World  2008
 conference, Shanghai  Pudong Shangri-La hotel, March 6 offer Proactive structural China/global asset pricing, 2008 credit
 tightening  recession impact on BRIC,Optimal  1x0/x0  long-short hedging, asset allocation strategy 

He directed 1000 senior, graduate global strategic management and industrial economic students developed the integrated global economics and capital market systems out of last 20 years IMF monthly statistics and global  economics and capital markets data, implemented for Taiwan 300, 000 import/exporter members daily 100 countries currency, 5000 energy, commodities, and products import/export strategy, and US, China, Taiwan 15 cites 30 million TV, radio HNW, institutional investors, offered thousands global strategic investment workshops for global energy, banking finance CEO, executives from 78 countries Integrating macroeconomic control,  inflation, financial economic  interest rates, currency,  20 industrial sectors economics demand, supply, prices markets forces mechanism and WTO global trade economics into  daily global macro, financial, industrial, trade economic activities and its interactions
Optimal Trilemma solution by Proactive Structural Dynamics Global Economic Systems Simulation, Integration OSA
tracking monetary, economic, fiscal, WTO policy impact on
Comment by Warren Huang Wall Street Journal Market Beat Blog- May 13, 2008 at 2:00 pm

Macroeconomic OSA    Financial Economics OSA   Industrial Economics OSA      Trade Economics OSA
inflation, GDP,                  Capital Market prices        industrial sectors demand        commodity ,products
unemployment                  Currency, interest rates    supply, commodity, asset        import/export prices
consumer spending                                                 prices bubble mechanism        global currency prices
=======================================================================================
Global Economic and Monetary Policy Interaction, integration OSA
USA     Asian   China   Hong Kong   Taiwan    Thailand   Japan  S. Korea   Singapore  Malaysia  Phillipines  Indonesia   Viet-Nan   India    Mexico   Argentina  Brazil   UK/EURO  Russia/E. Europe   
How China's Greenspan China Peoples Bank governor Zhou and State department premier Wen two master hands controlling monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on macroeconomic control and Wen's  housing sectors control
China/Global Strategic Management -Neuro-economic  OSA  models forecasts, mission control help central banks stay ahead of inflation, asset bubbles macro-economic cycles control,, forecast the cause, onset, recovery of  China, global capital markets
OSA asset prices, financial crisis, Basel II credit, market, interest rate, liquidity risks. capitalize investment  opportunities, avoid trillion dollar  market  loss, achieve sustainable profit   
 www.osawh.com     About OSA   Products & Services    Nobel Prize dream    book your full day workshops
US/China central  banks neutral  interest rate or inflation targeting   all fail to achieve sustainable growth and prices stability due to  Current US/China monetary policy, macroeconomic control policy still based on 30 year old US Friedman monetary economics theory using feedback control, based on lagging distorted  core inflation( exclude food and energy or distorted energy prices) to set  interbank rate, fail to predict  its its impact on currency, stock, commodities, housing, asset and its downstream products market prices and its impact on CPI and core inflation". resulted  excessive money supply growth in 2003, consumer, business demand, wealth effect speculation since then overheating ahead of asset bubble and in CPI inflation. leading to doing too little, too late in fighting potential inflation and soaring housing construction material asset bubbles.
China's industrial sectors and regional economic  policy  structural solution have been very successful in fighting the overheated housing, construction materials bubbles in 2004 to bring down its money supply growth from 24 % to 14% and inflation from 5.5 % to 1.4 %,  However speculative bubbles and inflation worry still exist as excessive fixed investment and consumer spending supported demand and pricing pressure as China gradually moving natural resources pricing mechanism reform, China natural gas prices up 100-150 yuan and  lift  coal, electricity pricing intervention  already driving May fuel prices up 14 % and soaring oil prices, housing bubbles, 30 % growth in fixed investment  led to China Peoples Bank raise lending rate to 5.85 % Apr. 28, and housing industry credit tightening June  2006

While Dr. Warren Huang's 35 years development, implementation of thousands proactive structural dynamic global monetary, macroeconomic, asset prices simulators have been able to tracking, simulate forecast months, years ahead of last 25 years misguided policy resulted 1980, 1990, 2000, 2005 soaring oil prices, energy energy crisis , stock, commodity, housing asset bubbles, China 1994 run away inflation offered thousands lectures to China Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Wuhan, Guanzhou, Taipei, US San Francisco 15 cities TV, radio investors, traders, hundred  banking finance companies CEO, fund managers, executives, predicted 1994- 1998 macro economic control, softland, and   Asian  currency crisis, results have been presented to 21 US, EURO, China, Asian central banks governors monetary policy for sustainable growth and prices stability and global financial crisis risk management conferences and his website www.osawh.com  (visited by 82 countries central banks, banking, finance, enterprises, universities since 1998.
He predicted  in 2003 that US facing housing and construction materials asset bubble deflation/burst again with 4 % inflation, due to excessive rates tax cuts,  rate cuts, money supply growth resulted excessive consumer,  business demand, stock market and housing markets speculation resulted bubble and 50 trillion dollar wealth effect , despite Greenspan 13 rate hikes and overoptimistic on inflationary and oil prices outlook using lagging, distorted  " core inflation "  following same mistakes in the last 20 years boom and bust.  GDP growth can no longer sustainable in current overheated bubble. Fed maintaining inflation is contained and oil prices will drop in the past 13 rate  hikes, encouraging housing and stock market wealth effect resulted speculation. 
Dr. Warren Huang predicted  to Asian Business Forum's Beijin workshop to  ExxonMobil, ARAMCO , Merril Lynch, HSBC, VP, Phillips Petroleum CEO, 100 multinational oil, banking CEO, executives in Beijin Feb and  Nov. 2005, that Green and Bernanke under estimate wealth effect resulted asst bubbles impact on oil prices and  inflation and  oil prices will be soar to 69 in summer 2005, metal prices to new high in January 2006 and oil prices will hit 80 in summer 2006,  US, CPI to 4.3 % in summer   will raise  rates throughout  summer 2006.,  Fed fund rate will go to 5.5 %  , China raised lending rate Apr. 28 to 5.85 %   gasoline futures will  to 265, stocks,, bond facing correction  give up all2005- 2006 gain ahead. Dow Jones, 10000- 11200, Nasdaq 2000- 2220, S&P 1150-1290 
 
 US/China 2003- 2005 macroeconomic, inflation control  tracking, 2005 forecasts:
Dr. Huang spoke to Euro-events Singapore , Shanghai, Beijin Nov.  2003  Asian/China Finance, Capital Markets conferences lecture to 2000 QFII, QDII mutual fund managers and  China Economist annual meeting Dec. 20 and San Francisco Silicon Valley finance radio and global finance investment seminar May7,  8, 15,2004 and   www.osawh.com   website  warning  global central banks excessive rate, tax cuts, ignoring Dr. Huang's warning on www.osawh.com  website and global conferences, underestimated global economic recovery resulted inflation,  excessive demand for housing, manufacturing, auto pushed oil, metal constructional materials prices to new high and rising cost, prices to 5000 upstream /downstream raw materials, products (core inflation) due to US  excessive money supply growth, rate, tax cuts, Fed raising rate , too little, too late , China delaying  rate hike to effectively cut market demand led to China Sept.  2004 CPI inflation up 5.2 % again 2005 GDP growth still at 9.4 % due to increasing   business ( up 22 %)and consumer demand up 14 % Despite China Oct 2005 CPI dropped to 1.2% due to distorted energy, asset prices. China still facing inflationary pressure (not deflation) as China soon will facing resources (coal, oil, water, electricity market forces prices mechanism reform reflecting rising oil prices impact on resources.  
 US Greenspan, global economists,  market analysts over optimistic  over oil, commodity weakness and underestimate inflationary pressure  and 10 yr. bond yield too low , long interest rate has to go up to 5 % in the month ahead due to excessive business and consumer spending twin growth engine will drive second half 2004  and 2005 economic recovery, profit growth, bull market rally, Oct job creation of 337000, will repeating March ,, 2004 , 2005 growth will be below 112,000 , peaking out as entering peak holiday season,  underestimated on the impact of US dollar depreciation, excessive rate, tax cuts , 48 trillion dollar  housing, equities wealth effect resulted excessive consumer, business demand, NAPM peaking out in the second quarter at 66 ( already plunged to 56 as predicted ) driving soaring oil, commodities, metals asset prices bubble reaching 23 year high in March, May  and extending into the rest of  2004 and repeating in 2005 with  US trade deficit soared to  55- 60  billion and inflation, facing credit tightening, rate hikes after May, Aug. Sept , Nov 2004 and extending well into summer 2005, profit , productivity growth , consumer confidence , business spending,  peaking out,  economic leading indicators declined for 6 months ,business  facing profit  squeeze in  second half  2004, China and US, Global stocks bull markets are over, entering bear market consolidation.   US High tech, finance, housing, retails, auto share will give up  all its 2004 gain plunge  30-50 % and  trillion dollar loss in bond and stock markets repeating 1995 and 2000  and trillion dollar profits in oil, commodity futures investments
. Huang  pioneered two master hands thousands structural dynamic proactive quantitative models  accurately predicted last 20 years global economy and daily capital market asset prices , presented to 24 global central bank governors, risk management conferences , He predicted again  2003 Nov. 2003 to Euro-events Singapore http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/  with photos 1, 2, 3 lecture  ppt  , Shanghai, Beijin Nov. Asian/China Finance, Capital Markets conferences,  www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm2003   picture  2  to 2000 QFII, QDII mutual fund managers, identify month ahead, investment opportunities in China ADR Hong Kong H shares, China A  blue chip petrochemicals, SNP, telecommunication Unicom A shares and value investing China mutual shares up 80 %and  and to China economists meeting Fudan University, Shanghai , Dec. 2003  early warning for 2004 asset bubbles in energy, metals commodities prices doubled, reaching 23 year peak, ( invested in future, derivatives gained 5000 %, mutual fund up 80 %) will drive China inflation to 4 %, China Peoples banks further credit tightening and rate hike( raised deposit ratio to 7.5 % Apr. 25, 2004, Oct. 0.27 % and more )will drive 2005 GDP to 7.5 %  despite 2004 GDP of 9.1%
Daily Opening Market Operations Impact on Macro- economic control, Financial, industrial sectors Capital Markets Asset Prices, Wealth effect, Bubbles  Early Warning Risks OSA (Operations Simulation Analysis) Forecasts
 
Special announcement: As of March,  2005,  www.osaglobalstrategicmanagement.com/resources2.html 
 and www.osaglobalstrategicmanagement.com/oilgas.html   through its proactive structural dynamic OSA forecast provide weekly/monthly forecast, update, it accurately predicted Oil price soared to 60, 

and  www.osaglobalstrategicmanagement.com/Chinastock.html       through its proactive structural dynamic OSA forecast provide weekly/monthly China stocks, fund forecast, update
 Do not miss Dr. Warren Huang Lecture on

Strategic Basel II Risks OSA early warning maximize risks adjusted return

for   Basel II Capital Requirement, Risk Management conference sponsored by Asian Strategy Leadership Institute, Singapore, Apr. 25-26 for China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Japan, Korea, ASEAN countries banking, finance senior risks, planning management, fund managers ( Dr. Huang offered thousands lectures to China, Taiwan, US TV, radio station 30 million investors, hundreds risk management workshops for hundreds banking, finance CEO, CFO , fund managers.
or reserve his full day in-house workshop email  wh3928@yahoo.com/ osawhh@sina.com
 in- house workshop Apr. 20- 23,  or Apr. 28-30 at your office
( he just offered on Feb 23 , Beijing to 70 China, Asian, US, European oil, gas, banking executives accurately:
Speaker Dr. Warren Huang accurately predicted on his Beijing Feb 23-25 workshop, keynote speeches, lectures that oil price will rise to 55 in March. and challenging 60 in spring, driving US China inflation and interest rate , bond yield up, stocks plunge.  soaring US trade deficit drag dollar and Oil price did soared to 55.2 on March 3, 58 on March 15, China Shanghai A retreat from 1320 to 1239, US Dow ones plunge from 10980 to 10359, Nasdaq from 2100 to 1970, 10 yr bond yield soared from 4 % to 4.6 %..

GS  after Dr. Huang prediction in April 5, speculation to 105 is based on feeling,  without market forces simulation Greenspan trying use market forces to cool down the prices to 56 is just co-incident.
based on Dr. Huang 30 year oil market market forces simulation tracing accurately daily prices movement since 1980, 1990 energy crisis, Greenspan only right about rising price cut demand, but forgot the  prime demand market forces from 49 trillion wealth effect out of housing, equities bubbles and weak dollar continue driving energy demand from construction metal, cement plastics 20 industrial sectors 5000 products etc beside just gasoline, heating oils.
Soaring Feb consumer spending, manufacturing demand definitely push oil price above 60, despite sufficient crude oil inventory, ( can easily consumed in the coming peak gasoline demand season ahead


Highlights:
* Structural dynamic simulation forecast of monetary, economic policy impact on daily global finance, capital markets asset prices Operation Simulation Analysis (OSA) avoided trillion dollar markets non-performance loan.
* Basel II Markets, Credit, Operational, interest rate, currency risks OSA forecast, risks early warning systems
* Corporate cost and financial accounting systems OSA tracking, governance scandal early warning, maximize
 transparency and performance.
*Cost, Profit, Risks, Market Shares as goal, mission, performance oriented  strategic (board members, senior executive , risk manager, auditing team) and execution ( junior executives, risk staff ) OSA teams tracking daily corporate performance and risks, maximize risk adjusted return
* Global/Asian equities, bond, oil, metals, commodity futures, derivatives prices, assets and mortgage backed securitization asset prices simulation, forecast, structural finance risks hedging OSA. minimize  Basel II  market risks.
* Risks OSA forecast , early warning, tracking, forecasts daily Basel II three pillars risk management requirement, minimize  capital adequacy  requirement in daily risks monitoring, reporting, measurement.
cost:  Dr. Huang San Francisco rt air fare, local hotel, lecture fee.

OSA Global Strategic Simulation/Forecasts, Your most powerful daily predictive decision tools--
Predicted  3 months ahead last 20 years global currency, 1980, 90, 2000 energy , financial crisis , 1994-96 and current China macro-economic control, soft-landing, 2000 US IT bubble bursts, 2001 recession and rate cut, current rate hikes...
5 Day Global Interest Rates, Bond Yield, Oil, Gold, Metals, Downstream Stocks, Currency Futures, Option Prices Mechanism Simulation  2005 Forecast Workshop
5 Day Global Interest Rates, Bond Yield, Stock Indices, Currency Futures, Option Prices Mechanism Simulation , Index, Debt Fund Asset Allocation Strategy  2005 Forecast Workshop
 30 years helping 78 countries multinationals oils and downstream fighting soaring oil, feedstock cost, maximizing sustainable profits and market shares.
===============================================================================================
Announcement  :OSA  country web pages assistant editor and marketing opportunities 
OSA will expand 40 countries web pages content in local language and English domain  in 2005, looking for
A.Assistant editors for all areas, current college student of all majors, interested to be training by our e-Learning mission
 impossible, develop  your country information knowledge base, web contents, you will be co-author with Dr. Huang to present your results in local , international conferences, for future graduate  scholarship, job applications reference.
B. Marketing agent: Local country web pages, domain, boosting traffic and workshops marketing, some experience required         Contact  osawhh@citiz.net  in  Chinese  wh3928@yahoo.com  in English
=================================================================================================

China Strategy: China government, business, banking, finance strategy
 Macroeconomic Control, Capital Markets  asset price, Capital Markets Bubble Simulation, early warning  early warning and sustainable profit, market shares growth strategy  :
 Monetary policy impact on macroeconomic control, Asset Prices, Bubble Simulation, early warning  :
 Shanghai/Shenzhen A/B/IPO China small cap  ADR   mutual fund/ commodity/ bond  Hong Kong H  Red Chips  NPL Asset Management  QFII/QDII strategy Supply Chain Logistics  Housing Bubble WTO import/ export pricing 
Strategic OSA maximize China oil/petrochemical upstream/downstream profit workshops ( Beijin workshopThe only and most reliable structural dynamic deterministic decision simulators tracking, forecasts months ahead last 20 years global economic, financial crisis, asset bubble, and daily capital market asset  ( interest rate, currency, commodity, equities, stocks, bond futures, derivatives ) prices market forces mechanism, avoided trillion dollar market loss due to current probabilistic models based capital market asset prices and risks models ( CAPM ), presented to US, European, China, Taiwan , Asian central bank governors, financial risks and wealth  management conference

Thousands   causes and effect structural, dynamic proven predictive OSA simulators beat  daily money, capital, insurance, property markets ( published thousands articles, 30 million copies ( over 10 million readers ) for reliable tracking, forecasts 3 month ahead of last 20 years  central banks monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on global/China economy, daily capital market asset prices, bubble early warning, tailor to QFII/QDII  investment needs.  =======================================================================================
first time  shown on this website the  most reliable  global stock indices , currency , wealth management OSA simulation charts 
OSA Simulation Charts tracking forecasts 1-3 month ahead monetary policy on last 20 years daily
A. Consumer spending, Fed Fund rate, Dollar exchange rate impact on Dow Jones Index
B. Japan money supply growth, Yen exchange rate, Dow Jones impact on Tokyo Nikkei index
C. EU  money supply growth, EURO exchange rate, Dow Jones impact on German DAX index
D. Hong Kong money supply growth, interbank rate, Dow Jones impact on Henseng index have E.  US and EURO trade deficit/surplus, interest rate spread impact on EURO exchange rate
F. US and  Japan trade deficit/surplus, interest rate spread impact on  YEN  exchange rate
  by Dr. Warren Huang  June 2004
Global Economy and Financial Markets Asset Prices Mechanism, Basel II risks causes models  Simulation /Forecasts

 Dr. Huang  two OSA master hands  controlling global economy, financial market prices , wrote thousands articles, and presented to 100 global central banks governors, financial risks management conference , accurately predicted month ahead on 1980, 1990, energy crisis, 1992 Euroepan currency crisis, 1994- 96 China macro-economic control,  soft-landing, 1997 Asian Financial crisis, 1998 LTCM, Russia currency crisis, 2000 IT bubble burst.
  Dr. Warren Huang CV pioneered   thousand structural dynamic simulators  helping US, Taiwan, China, Singapore, Asian countries 30 years strategic knowledge economy and market economic market forces prices mechanism simulation forecasts maximize macroeconomic controls, R&D innovation global competitiveness
He.  accurately predicted  Nov. 5, 2003 in Singapore ,Shanghai Euro-events conferencesSingapore http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/ photos 1, 2, 3 lecture ppt  , Shanghai, Beijin Nov. 2003  Asian/China finance, capital Markets conferences,  www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm   picture  2  and to China economists meeting Fudan University, Shanghai , Dec. 2003 over 2000 QFII/QDII executives, May 8, 15, 2004 to US Silicon Valley investors, radio station , and  www.osawh.com website that excessive rate and tax cuts resulted manufacturing and consumer demand pushing US Oil prices  soared above 50, metals  prices reaching 23 year high drive 5000 downstream products prices and inflation up, will follow economic recovery in the second half of  2004 and not transitory .  weak dollar due  to soaring trade deficit, ( 55.3 billion  for June, 50 for July ) will drive  inflation up 5 %, bond market slump in May till the end of 2004  job creation, productivity, profit growth peaking out  in the second quarter 2004 Fed June, Aug  , Sept 0.25 % rate hikes China credit tightening, will follow US rate hike in 2004, global economy facing inflationary slowdown ( second half US GDP below 3 %) and followed by stagflation next year with  stocks entering bear market consolidation, with 30- 50 % correction Global IPO  will facing 30-50 % correction  as Google will  plunged from 185 to 60-80, any attempt using IPO to speculate market rebound will be followed by sell off bear trap , avoided trillion dollar bond, equities, derivative market loss made trillion dollar oil, commodity derivatives market profit.
 
US macroeconomic, inflation control  tracking, 2005 forecasts:
Dr. Huang spoke to Euro-events Singapore , Shanghai, Beijin Nov.  2003  Asian/China Finance, Capital Markets conferences lecture to 2000 QFII, QDII mutual fund managers and  China Economist annual meeting Dec. 20 and San Francisco Silicon Valley finance radio and global finance investment seminar May7,  8, 15,2004 and   www.osawh.com   website  warning  global central banks excessive rate, tax cuts, ignoring Dr. Huang's warning on this website and global conferences, underestimated global economic recovery resulted inflation,  excessive demand for housing, manufacturing, auto pushed oil, metal constructional materials prices to new high and rising cost, prices to 5000 upstream /downstream raw materials, products  due to US  excessive rate, tax cuts, Fed raising rate , too little, too late , China delaying  rate hike to effectively cut market demand led to China Sept.  2004 CPI inflation up 5.2 % again and third quarter GDP growth still at 9.1 % due to increasing   business ( up 28 %)and consumer demand up 14 % ,will facing soaring inflation  from current 5.3 % to 6.6 %, US will facing inflation soared to 5 % in winter peaking holiday demand season .  US Greenspan, global economists,  market analysts over optimistic  over oil, commodity weakness and underestimate inflationary pressure  and 10 yr. bond yield too low , long interest rate has to go up to 5 % in the month ahead due to excessive business and consumer spending twin growth engine will drive second half 2004  and 2005 economic recovery, profit growth, bull market rally, Oct job creation of 337000, will repeating March ,, 2004 , 2005 growth will be below 112,000 , peaking out as entering peak holiday season,  underestimated on the impact of US dollar depreciation, excessive rate, tax cuts , 48 trillion dollar  housing, equities wealth effect resulted excessive consumer, business demand, NAPM peaking out in the second quarter at 66 ( already plunged to 56 as predicted ) driving soaring oil, commodities, metals asset prices bubble reaching 23 year high in March, May  and extending into the rest of  2004 and repeating in 2005 with  US trade deficit soared to  55- 60  billion and inflation, facing credit tightening, rate hikes after May, Aug. Sept , Nov 2004 and extending well into summer 2005, profit , productivity growth , consumer confidence , business spending,  peaking out,  economic leading indicators declined for 6 months ,business  facing profit  squeeze in  second half  2004, China and US, Global stocks bull markets are over, entering bear market consolidation.   US High tech, finance, housing, retails, auto share will give up  all its 2004 gain plunge  30-50 % and  trillion dollar loss in bond and stock markets repeating 1995 and 2000  and trillion dollar profits in oil, commodity futures investments
US inflation rate at  3.2 % in 2004, with business  spending up 14 %, consumer confidence above 100 ISM at 66 are inflationary, facing excessive inventory built up,  oil, soared to 56 currently consolidate in 47-50  cold winter will drive heating oil,  and oil price rebound to 55-60  gas to 9.0 and metals to  new high  in summer 2005  will drive up 20 sectors 5000 products costs and prices, inflation will be back to 3.5 % in spring, more rate hikes are on its way to cool off the economy, 10 year bond yield is too low, will return to 4.3- 5.0 %
Wall Street Market Research OSA Market Tracking, Forecasts: Global Capital Markets Asset prices tracking, forecasts:
Dr. Huang lectured to 50 European, Asian, Malaysian central banks, banking, finance executives Kuala Lumpur, Sept. 30, 2002 predicted that oil prices soared to 43, Dow Jones retest 7500 Nasdaq 1250, March 2003 on Asian Business Forum.   He lectured Nov. 2003 lectured to Euro-events Singapore http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/ photos 1, 2, 3 lecture ppt  , Shanghai, Beijin Nov. Asian/China finance, capital Markets conferences,  www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm2003   picture  2  and to China economists meeting Fudan University, Shanghai , Dec. over 2000 QFII/QDII executives, identify housing, equities wealth effect bubbles   month ahead, investment opportunities in China petrochemical upstream/downstream, steel, aluminum, telecommunications ADR , Shanghai A and Hong Kong H shares, mutual fund up 80 %  IPO shares up 150 % and early warning for asset bubbles in oil, commodities prices reaching 23  year peak( recommended invested in future, derivatives gained 5000 %) in March 2004, will drive China CPI to 5 %, with steel, cement over-invested 170 % and energy shortage will lead to further credit tightening, accurately predicted China Peoples bank raise bank reserve ratio 0.5 % to 7.5 % open market inter-bank rate (Chibor)must stay above 3.% to remove 110 billion from the capital markets,  US CPI to 5.1 %, core inflation to 2.7 % in the summer , overoptimistic over US economic recovery and job creation,( despite March strong 300,000  new jobs can not sustainable after June quarter tax rebate is over ( June job creation already down to 32,000) and  inflation outlook may lead to rate hike after May and summer lead to serious bond market plunge (US lose  380 billion dollar, China lose 270 billion) housing bubble repeat 1995 bond market crash and 2000 election bubble and global IT and blue chips banking shares will peaking out   facing  correction in the month ahead,  
 2005 Oil, commodity prices forecast
 Market speculators using Oil prices plunged from 55 to 40 and back to 56, and Intel profit , over-optimistic outlook, Apple profit up 70 % due to i-Pod new product innovation Dell 29 % profit gain to push Dell and High tech, and  IBM PC sale to China, Oracle PeopleSoft 10 billion dollar merger facing margin squeeze and Sprint Nextel 35 billion dollar merger all facing sharp competition, to speculate blue chips and Nasdaq will give up all its recent gain is premature ,oil price  rebound to 55 in March accurately predict by Dr. Huang in Beijing Feb 23, 2005 will challenge 60 due to OPEC one million production cut and winter and summer peak demand, and challenge 55- 60 in summer 2005.
2005 High tech stock performance forecasts
US and global IT ( from chips, PC, to telecommunication, entertaining) demand growth will be slow down to 6 % , facing profit squeeze, stock prices retreat 30 -50 %, with China internet stocks bubble burst, plunge 70- 80 % . Dell profit decline continue,  facing profit squeeze, pricing cutting from HP, Apple sales and general economic slowdown, Dell stock will plunge below 35, IBM test 85. HP profit, stock prices continue drag by PC operation (as warned by Dr. Huang on this website) speculating on HP CEO change will not improve near term profit, stock performance, only smart PC can lead to breakthrough.  Global IPO  will facing 30-50 % correction  as   Google enjoyed 7 fold earning increase, it has PE of 145, and profit margin of only 12 %, stock price at 215 is extremely overpriced, repeating Yahoo of 2000, will  plunged from 215 to 100-120, any attempt using IPO and  PG and Gillette merger to speculate market rebound will be followed by sell off bear trap   avoided trillion dollar bond, equities, derivative market loss made trillion dollar oil, commodity derivatives market profit.
US  dollar weakness continue in 2005:  Soaring import leading to record US trade deficit of 655 billion in summer will  drag US dollar into new low continue into this year Euro : 1.29- 1.45 , Yen 95- 102, 
Global stocks bear market correction into 2005, give up most of 2004 gain
 US, Asian and European stocks  follow US stocks  rebound currently will gave up all this year gain  China and US economic slowdown will drag global economic growth, stocks  ( including IPO )facing  30-50 % bear market  correction consolidation   Dow will be traded 9750- 10900, Nasdaq  1750- 2100 , S&P 1060-1200, US 10 year bond yield will be back to 4.4- 4.9 in March 2005. Taiwan index post election bubble burst from 7200 to  5000- 6100, Henseng 12500- 14200, Nikkei 10000- 11900, China credit tightening continue. Shanghai A 1150- 1300, Shenzhen 2750- 3350,  consolidation Hundred thousands integrated, global  structural, dynamics, deterministic proprietary model simulators first time 
 China Macroeconomic control tracking, forecasts: China started second phase credit tightening, rate hike series begin.
China finally raised prime rate by 0.27, to cool off the asset bubble, with structural rate hike, floating loan upper limit from  5.6- 12.5 %, Oct. 28, 2004, accurately  predicted by  Dr. Huang last Nov. 2003 in Euro-events Singapore, Shanghai, Beijing, Asian/China finance, capital market conference and May 8, 15, 2004 to San Francisco Silicon Valley Finance radio and Global Finance Forum, Hi tech investment seminar, Silicon Valley and on this website, visited by million global central banks, banking, finance, corporate executives.
Global central banks ignoring Dr. Huang's warning on this website and global conferences, underestimated global economic recovery resulted inflation, demand for housing, manufacturing, auto pushed oil, metal prices to new high and rising cost, prices to 5000 upstream /downstream raw materials, products resulted US Fed raising rate , too little, too late, China delaying  rate hike to effectively cut market demand led to China Sept.  CPI inflation up 5.2 % again and 2004 GDP growth still at 9.4 % due to increasing   business ( up 28 %)and consumer demand up 14 % ,will facing soaring inflation  from current 3.9 % to 5.6 % in winter peaking holiday demand season and summer 2005.   Despite  China Peoples Bank raised deposit ratio by 1.5 %
China first two month 2005 demand overheated again with fixed investment up 26 %, housing demand up 28 %,
retail sales up 14 %, industrial production up 17 %,Feb inflation up from Jan 1.9 % to 3.9 %, export up 37 %, fisrt quarter GDP will back up to 9 % again, the soaring oil prices at 56, will past it costs downstream, further drive oil, coal, transportation costs and steel, construction materials prices, push March inflation above 4 %, forced China Peoples Bank raised housing loan interest and first down payment by 10 %.,, more tightening in summer is expected.
and cutting capital investment in steel, cement, aluminum, auto loan lead to  some progress macroeconomic control with Sept. money supply growth at 13.6 % (below 17 % target), auto sales up only  10 %, asset prices, inflation  followed soaring oil price to 55,  all time high metal prices   coastal cities Beijin, Shanghai GDP up 14 %) from year ago, wealth effect, FDI drive national  housing prices up 14.8 % ( 2750 ) and 38 % for coastal cities Shanghai, Ninbo,, Guanzhou .  retail sale up 13.2, China 2004 GDP up 9.2 % far above 7 % target, medium, long term loan up 25.4  %, inflation up 4 % . China economy  is far from soft landing, will have very tough year to cut domestic demand and GDP below 8 % and  call the need for further  interest rate hike in summer and raise deposit reserve ratio   to cool off the consumer and housing demand in winter holiday peak and summer  season .  As. China Peoples bank issue 100 billion notes to cut 100 billion from the money market avoid overheated Chinese New Year demand further drive up inflation.  soaring China, US demand pushing China steel, cement, aluminum investment (over 120 %), coal, energy shortage,  stocks prices  rebound from 1250  to 1470 speculating over Premier's  915 statement over stock market stability is overheated ( accurately predicted by Dr. Huang on this website and already retreat to 1150) market is over, continue bear market technical rebound ( within 20 %  and consolidation, with Shanghai A testing 1150- 1300, IPO and newly listed small cap shares plunge 30-50 % with most testing its IPO price, low prices blue chips shares like Sinopec, Unicom will lead future rebound 20  %. , This supply side tightening are insufficient to cool  the uneven economic overheating,  as China raised key interest rate by 0.27 % and  implement  structural  rate hikes in late Oct. as predicted by Dr. Huang to cut off excessive consumer , business demand in housing, construction materials, auto and retails  demand . to cool off soaring housing and metals prices,  and  serious energy , electricity , coal shortage, and transportation, communication bottleneck. 
China benefited by lower food price, Jan CPI drop to 1.9 %  from Oct. 5.2 %, however rising heating oil, gas , coal, water, service charge ( oil prices will rebound 55 and feedstock price, falling dollar will push US and global inflation  in the winter heating demand drive China Feb inflation to 3.9 %
China has hard time  achieve soft landing in the second half 2005, as China Peoples Bank has to cut money supply growth below 10 % and GDP below 8 %. and fixed investment growth below 15 %  Dr. Huang also predicted  Oct. 1994 to China Wuhan securities news, Wangguo,  Kuotai  securities investors, BeijingChina Financial Times, China macroeconomic control will be soft-landing 1996, Shanghai A will be traded  between 600- 800 during 1994- 1996 He recommended that China stocks will be very attractive to QFII in the new Millennium
Global central banks, economist, financial market , industrial sectors analysts, CEO  ignoring ,Dr. Huang photo  warning to ECB, JP Morgan in Rome, China Peoples Bank governor Dai central bank governors conference in Macao, Taiwan central bank governor Asian Pacific conference Taipei, APEC finance Thailand prime minister, ASEAN central bank governors conferences in Bangkok, US Fed  governors , Washington Area, NASD finance conferences 1998-2000 on  IT asset bubble bursts
 Hundred thousands integrated, global  structural, dynamics, deterministic proprietary model simulators first time 
 CLick for Sample OSA Simulation Charts tracking forecasts 1-3 month ahead monetary policy on daily
A. Consumer spending, Fed Fund rate, Dollar exchange rate impact on Dow Jones Index
B. Japan money supply growth, Yen exchange rate, Dow Jones impact on Tokyo Nikkei index
C. EU  money supply growth, EURO exchange rate, Dow Jones impact on German DAX index
D. Hong Kong money supply growth, interbank rate, Dow Jones impact on Henseng index have been developed, implemented supporting the following  goal, mission, performance oriented  outsourcing strategic centers corporate/ memberships/ workshops   tailored to global government, enterprises, banking, finances enterprises  board members, think tank and executives in integrating into the global markets decision needs:ook Dr. Warren Huang's  China/US credit tightening impact on global recovery, capital market asset prices, risk  hedging 2004 second half  global investment strategy workshops (  June Taipei, Shanghai, Beijin, Hong Kong tour )getting ahead of the emerging trend, capitalize on China , US rate hike impact on global economy and capital markets, while minimize credit, markets, operational risks.osawhh@citiz.net

Dr. Warren Huang lectured  San Francisco Nexusdirect.net Huaxin securities Silicon Valley investors workshop on China/US rate hike, soaring oil prices impact on 2004 second half global asset allocation, investment strategy, May 15, 2004 at World Journal daily news center, predicted, recommended  accurately buy China ADR shares plunged 30- 50 %; Unicom, CNOOC ADR shares and US Silicon Valley high tech, biotech, as Nasdaq plunge below 1875, The Nasdaq did plunged to 1865 May 17, Monday, investors bought these share at their bottom, enjoyed almost 20 % profit  
======Dr. Warren Huang  North American China-US  TV radio interview, investment seminar Lecture =====
Dr. Huang had half hour interview by Silicon Valley Financial TV, Radio station to speak on China/US credit tightening impact on economy and high tech/biotech corporate performance, stock prices, Global ADR asset allocation and risk management. accurately predicted Dow broke 10,000, Nasdaq broke 1900 to 1850, recommended to buy CHina ADR, US high tech share completed 30- 50 % correction, and gold at 370, downgrade India high tech share. US Nasdaq plunged to 1875, May 10, India stocks plunged 12 % May 17
Global Chinese Finance Forum San Francisco Silicon Valley High Tech/Biotech Investment Seminar 2004
An excellent opportunity to meet with Dr. Warren Huang to discuss “Market Trend and Outlook for Chinese Theme Stocks in US” and CEOs from five growing public companies to learn their current projects and growth potentials.
Date: May 8, 2004 (Saturday)        Time: 9:30-3:10pm  Venue: Crown Plaza Hotel, 777 Bellew Drive, Milpitas Format: Presentation in Chinese and English, Booths, Q&A, Lunch  
Dr. Huang accurately predicted Dow broke 10,000, Nasdaq broke 1900 to 1850, recommended to buy CHina ADR, US high tech share completed 30- 50 % correction, and gold at 370, downgrade India high tech share. US Nasdaq plunged to 1875, May 10, India stocks plunged 12 % May 17

==China stocks, bond, commodity, metals, mutual fund investment strategy, bubbles warning workshops== , reserve  osawhh@citiz.net
 Structural, dynamic Predictive Global Central Banks Monetary Policy for Sustainable Growth and Asset Prices Stability Guidance and Control:  Policy Impact Simulation  Beat daily capital, money, insurance, property market Prices by 3 month Workshops
Monetary,  Economic, Fiscal Policy, WTO  impact on Global  Economic, Business cycles, Asset, Wealth , Prices  bubbles burst, oil, energy , Currency crisis, recession FEED FORWARD ( predicted 3-6 month ahead) SUSTAINABLE GROWTH AND ASSET PRICES STABILITY CONTROL Financial Markets Return, Asset Allocation, Strategic Risks OSA (RIGHT  HAND )  
Structural, Dynamics simulation of Monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on last 20 years global macro economic, business cycles, capital market asset prices, bubbles , financial crisis, boom and busts achieving growth and prices stability control predicted 1- 3 month ahead,  Global financial crisis since 1980 and 2000 high tech bubble burst and 2001-2003 global market crash and recovery :
Dr. Warren Huang HAS BEEN INVITED TO SPEAK TO 24 GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS GOVERNORS  CONFERENCE ( FRB, ECB, China Peoples Bank, Taiwan, Japan, Korea, Thailand, Asian ) since 1998 warned that Global high tech bubble burst will plunge 50-70 % and facing recession. He offered thousands lectures accurately predicted China Peoples Banks monetary policy impact on 1994-96 macro-economic control-soft landing on China daily stock markets to China 15 cities 30 million investors, national newspapers during 1994-1998 in China and again predicted China excessive money supply, housing bubble facing tightening Mar. 2003 Shanghai workshops

Thousands   causes and effect structural, dynamic proven predictive OSA simulators beat  daily money, capital, insurance, property markets ( published thousands articles, 30 million copies ( over 10 million readers ) for reliable tracking, forecasts 3 month ahead of last 20 years  central banks monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on global/China economy, daily capital market asset prices, bubble early warning, tailor to QFII/QDII  investment needs.
Dr. Huang accurately  predicted  last 20 years daily US interest rate, commodities, gold, oil prices daily capital market prices 4 month ahead and again at  Shanghai University of Finance, Economics, Oct. 25,  Euro-event  Singapore, Nov. 5,  2003 Asian Finance, capital market conference on  Monetary policy impact on Asian and China  economic outlook, asset prices, applying his two master hands ( interest rate and trade) currency market forces price mechanism, wrote 600 articles on trade journal, helping Taiwan central bank and 200,000 importer/exporters daily/weekly NT/  100 currencies ( US and cross rates) from NT fixed at 40 to float to 25- 40, covering Yen from 250 to 80 during 1985- 1995 and Asian financial crisis. He  warned  that any free float of RMB will  lead to China currency crisis and US runaway inflation import consumer goods will up 50 % to double) and  repeat past global financial crisis, bubble burst. Only Dr. Huang's two master hands ( interest rate and trade, economic policy ) market forces price mechanism guide through RMB gradual appreciation  widening trading band is the best approach, regardless peg to the dollar or a basket of currency.  Greenspan agree with Dr. Huang recently too that China RMB immediate float will resulting global crisis Dr. Huang also recommended the best approach for RMB is through cutting China-US trade surplus ( as China already spending 15 billion buying US auto, airplane, cotton, semiconductors, wheat , will start to show on China trade, cutting US trade deficit in the month ahead, and     as China cut 3 % export rebate) and China  first quarter export growth back to 33 %, import growth 43 %, with 85 billion trade deficittake pressure off RMB,
He also  recommended to  buy Russia oils,  China A, B ADR  oil, petroch( PTR, SNP, CEO), steel, aluminum share and Hong Kong H shares due to soaring Russia China, demand, profits, DFI inflow, while sell overheated US,  Taiwan,  Singapore, Korea, Japan, German  IT shares, due to price cutting. buy with caution global banking, finance stocks due to low interest rate, soaring housing, stock markets facing bubble burst.   and continue recommendation on China shares  on China finance, capital market conference  Shanghai, Nov. 25 ,  Beijin, Nov. 27  2003, but warned China  stocks bubble on China economic society annual meeting, Fudan Univeristy, Dec. 20, 2003 warned bubbles in China ADR share up 50 % -80 % , IPO shares up 150 %  and on this website that accurately predicted housing and equities wealth effect bubbles leading to China repeat 2001 overheating  and US household wealth already matching 2000 bubble  will repeat 1999-2000 bubble burst /deflation , with current recovery peaking out third quarter 2003 (GDP 8.3 % ,consumer, spending, money supply growth at 8 %,  ISM over 66, productivity at 9.5 % consumer confidence over 100 (will plunge to 80- 90) are inflationary and  unsustainable, dollar plunge,( ECB will leave rate unchange to take the pressure of EURO) inflationary already leading to  19 year high in commodity oil prices, soaring housing, equities prices, wealth effect bubble burst in post election, if not deflated by then  ) and second quarter 2004, raise interest rate after  May, 2004  ,facing slowdown ( 3 % GDP  ) by year end,
China suffered by housing  wealth effect, FDI and equities bubbles , wealth effect led Jan whole sales prices up 6.7%, consumer prices up 5.7 % will continue credit tightening, as  China People's bank  cut the money supply growth from 2003's 18 % to 17 % for macro economic control, reduce excessive, repetitive investment (steel, cement, auto, housing, aluminum, consumer loan and raise reserve ratio to 0.75 to cut 100 billion RMB from banking system, stock prices facing 20 % correction and Greenspan indicated the need for rate hike .US dollar rebound ,oil prices traded 35-40  gold price peaking out , traded 380-450 ,China leave RMB unchange , BP ( visit this website regularly, )selling PTR, SNP in Hong Kong and China ADR shares down 10- 20 % recently and Greenspan indicated the need for rate hike   will facing 20 % correction   
China ADR shares prices OSA,  asset bubble earning warning,
China ADR shares facing soaring oil prices, China/US credit tightening will make 20 % correction, individual stocks making 30- 50 % correction in the month ahead

========================Special  Announcement==============================
 Due to Dr. Huang's busy US, Asian workshops demand for US/China credit tightening, soaring oil prices impact on 2004 second half US/Asian market investment strategy,     join  Dr. Huang's full day workshops provide the latest forecasts, investment opportunities, risks early warning for  2004 global economy, capital markets prices, Global Currencies, ADR shares , mutual fund asset management investment opportunities,  global central banks monetary policy makers, financial, capital markets, CEO, executives, investors book your strategic  workshops

   email   osawhh@citiz.net , wh3928@yahoo.com for reservation
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Daily China  government, corporate bond yield, commodity, metal, grain futures, mutual fund performance/forecasts
China IPO shares  soared 150 % with average P/E ration over 56- 75 follow Shanghai index as investors sentiment reaching new high repeating 2001 bubble burst risks
Daily Shanghai and Shenzhen A, B shares investment strategy, early warning
Hong Kong Blue Chip and China red chips, H- Share prices OSA,  asset bubble earning warning,

  USA    Australia  Asian  Canada  China   Hong Kong   Taiwan    Thailand   Japan  S. Korea   Singapore  Malaysia  Phillipines  Indonesia   Viet-Nan   India  UK/EURO  Russia/E. Europe    Mexico   Argentina  Brazil

 US and global markets   global capital markets investment strategic simulation tailored to your need . please email wh3928@yahoo.com for reservation

OSA/China Monetary policy  for sustainable macro economic control Financial Markets 
Current China macro economy, financial markets asset bubbles simulation
China economy facing uneven economic development as US situation, The excessive money supply ( rate cuts to 5 %), 300 billion Yuan fiscal stimulus in fight deflation, 60 billion 30 % increase in hot direct foreign investment inflow due to expectation of  Yuan appreciation and export growth, 345 billion foreign reserve resulted 23 % increase in consumer housing and auto loan  demand and consumer prices index up 0.4 % i Aug., resulted China Peoples Bank issue warning on overheated housing and auto sectors and raised capital reserve ration from 6 % to 7 % (equivalent 150 billion Yuan remove from loan) resulted banking, auto, housing stock down 30- 50 % as predicted by Dr. Warren Huang in  his China investment strategy workshop in

China 2003-2004 economy and financial, Capital  market OSA forecasts

Shanghai, Dr. Huang predicted to 600 investors early  March 2003 that China auto, properties markets overheated bubble burst stocks will   rebound 30- 50 % , Shanghai A rebound from 1450 to 1650, and give up its gain  in third quarter 2003 Shanghai A will test 1300-, Shenzhen A retest 2850-3050, with technical rebound by big cap blue china low prices shares Unicom, Sinopec (SNP), Shanghai auto, Pudong develop bank, Vanke shares.
Monetary Policy on  inflation, GNP and economic indicators  for sustainable  growth and asset price stability)
OSA simulation  macro-economics/Capital Market
Inflation rate = F (Money supply growth rate %, Oil prices, Commodity index, Dollar exchange rate)
GNP = F (Money supply growth rate %, Interest Rate, Export Growth Rate)
Property prices = F (Money supply growth rate %, Interest Rate, stock index)
NAPM = F( Consumer spending growth rate %, Interest Rate, stock index)
Business, consumer spending = F( Overnite interest rate, money supply growth,  exchange rate)
Stock indices = F(  Nasdaq index), Interest rate,  exchange rate
 Wealth Effect = F( money supply, consumer, business spending, interest rate, currency, stock index, housing prices)
China macro-economic control, financial Crisis OSA , Early Warning 2003-2004
Monetary Policy :Open Market Operations  Simulation excessive money supply from 15 to 23 %  leading to  properties prices up 60 %-100 % since 1999, and auto demand up 67 %, steel and cotton prices doubled, asset  bubble and raise the reserve ratio from 6 to 7 %, intended to cut M2 supply growth from 23 % to 18 % target. ( it was down to 19.4  % in Feb. 2004.  daily interbank rate up up from 2 % to 3.9 % in early Nov and and easing off in Dec. to 2.2 %. raised business loan  upper  rate floating limit .China Peoples Bank 4 th quarter  2003 GDP soared to 10.7 % Jan money supply was excessive as inter bank rate still at 2.2 %,  it will up in the month ahead, Feb  money supply growth still at 19.4  % was excessive led to monetary policy meeting discuss taking effective measure to restructure loan structure, avoid excessive loan into excessive investment to low quality overlapped industries ( steel and auto, telecommunication While encourage banking industry to increase their loan to medium, small enterprises and boost rural area consumer demand, creating jobs
Monetary policy: second phase credit tightening: Dr. Huang lectured on Monetary policy impact on global capital markets asset prices, bubble early warning, risk management  to Euro-events  Asian finance, capital markets conference Nov. 5, 2003, China, finance, capital market conference, Nov. 25, 2003, Shanghai, Nov. 27, Beijin, 2003 accurately predicted US will raise interest rate by May, 2004, China will continue credit tightening, as confirmed by China People's bank Jan 5 to cut the money supply growth  target from 2003's 18 % ( actual Feb 2004  at  19.4 % ) to 17 % this year and Greenspan indicated the need for rate hike
Retail sales up  9 % increasing  demand benefited by strong export,  rebound in  demand for computer, auto durable goods, retail sales and  crude oils   import,
manufacturing  production index : up   12% recovery from slowdown in  export during New year holiday, it will picking up in the month ahead
Export : Benefited by strong US and Asian recovery demand, US dollar plunge against EURO  export growth at up 28%  Feb  2004, it will picking up in the month ahead
manufacturing  production index : up   9% due to slowdown in  export during New year holiday,
Import : up  42 % to 357.3 billion due to rising oil, raw material import prices   crude oil, import, and domestic demand, wealth effect in direct foreign capital flow in coastal cities.
Trade Surplus: facing deficit 7.9  billion due to soaring import growth  42 %it will picking up in the month ahead
RMB Currency :  firm at 8.26 facing appreciation pressure, however trade deficit will take pressure off RMB  as China buying 15 billion US auto, airplanes, commodity , semiconductors and cut 2 % export tax rebate will reduce China surplus with US by  15 billion  lead to near term firm at 8.27
Agricultural , Food prices: will be up 20  % due to rising   global commodities, oil   prices weak dollar
Inflation:  3.2 % , CPI up 5.8 %industrial products prices up 6.5 % despite some  still facing deflation  due to weak global prices, and import duty cut supported by  soaring oil prices but inflation pressure in housing, energy, food.
Interest rate:   5.4  % raised short term loan upper limit.
GDP growth rate %:   benefited by  strong  export growth and Foreign direct inflow, money supply growth soared to 23 % lead to 4 Q  GDP of  10.7 % , will be slowed to 7.5 %- 8.0 % in 2004
China facing 3 % shortage in power supply as demand outstrip supply by 3 % due to excessive steel, auto, cement, aluminum demand
Shanghai, Shenzhen A, B stock Index     Daily hot stocks OSA     weekend hot stocks review OSA
Both markets are overheated by sector rotation   speculating on low priced shares, H-shares, blue chips, ST block (restructuring) high-tech stocks with  Shanghai A soared from 1300 to 1750, SHanzhen from 2800 to  3955,  ignoring China Peoples bank credit tightening, falling global  prices for high  tech products due to sharp competition and soaring oil and raw material prices , will give up 10 % of  it's recent gains going for 10- 15 % correction consolidation due to Peoples bank concerned overheated loan demand, falling auto, banking, housing stock 30 % correction will drag  Shanghia A  near term traded between 1550-  1700  medium term  traded between 1350- 1665, SHenzhen A near term traded between 3700-3950 medium term , between 3200 -3700    IPO stocks and ST block stocks  earning are disappointing due to rising oils, raw material, energy costs and falling prices.

Asian financial crisis , China peoples bank's monetary policy impact on China macro GNP, inflation, export,  interest rates, currency,  stocks, commodity, properties prices impact on 
======Special  Strategic Structural Wealth Management Risks Hedging /workshops  Announcement =======
OSA pioneer Dr. Warren Huang will offer full day Structural Strategic Wealth Management and Risks Hedging
  He will speak on Global strategic wealth management , asset allocation, and risk  early warning, hedging , introducing thousands strategic investment simulators predicted 3 month ahead  on global financial crisis, asset, wealth bubble burst, avoided trillion dollar market, wealth loss for 30 million China, Taiwan, Asian, US, European investors, VIP traders, money managers since 1985 
Thousands structural dynamic OSA  futures, option prices simulators tracking  forecasts 3 month ahead last 20 years monetary, economic, fiscal, trade policy impact on global economy, daily global financial markets performance and provide early warning , risk hedging covering all  crisis, avoided markets and hedging fund, wealth managers speculating on the business, economic, market news , chasing the markets, betting on the direction resulted trillion dollar loss. He will offer in-house strategic wealth management workshops for Beijin, Shanghai, Hong, Kong, Taipei, Singapore QFII, QDII, VIP investors, traders , banking, insurance CEO, executives during March- April  2004 reserve by osawhh@citiz.net  /wh3928@yahoo.comTrillion dollar Nonperformance assets Management, workshops, 
OSA maximize nonperformance debt, equities, property asset performance, value recovery, pre- warning for future NPL workshops ?Tracking?the causes, onset, recovery, prevent?of?assets bubble burst reserve your in-house workshops email wh3928@yahoo.com

How OSA accurately predicted China avoided 1994 Financial Crisis and made soft-landing 1996 and avoided 1998 Asian Financial Crisis , recovery Simulation:
This author with Ji and Dai spending half time in China during 1989 - 1998 implementing OSA tracking simulation of CHina economy, financial market prices: Simulation of   Taiwan, Hong Kong and China peoples banks monetary policy impact on inflation and GNP and interest rate, Taiwan and RMB currency and stock markets prices. It accurately tracking and predicted daily China economy and financial markets activities, how the former Prime minister Zhu Rongji successfully managed China's monetary policy led China avoided possible financial crisis by successfully controlled the inflation, to bring it down from 35 % and 100 % currency depreciation to deflation of ?.5 %in 1999 and current 2.5 % by cutting the money supply growth from peak of 35 % in 1994 to 1996 15 % to achieve soft-landing and boost domestic demand to maintaining 15 % money supply growth 7.8 % GNP growth which lead to Shanghai stock index plunge from 1994 peak of 1550 to 333 and stabilized traded between 600 and 800 during 1994 and 1996 through three stages credit tightening to cut the domestic demand and reduced the import duty by 30 % to reduce the importing inflation and implemented stock markets and financial institution regulation and full transparency, ban short term foreign capital speculation in the housing and stock markets achieved perfect soft-landing in 1996. And also predicted 1996 interest rate cuts leading to bull markets, with Shanghai A index tripled from 520 to 1650 . ( all predicted by the author on lectures to 20 million 15 cities TV, radio programs and national newspapers during 1994- 98 .The state enterprise reform and Asian crisis resulted high unemployment and export slowdown, pulling the money supply down from 1996s 28 % to 14 % in 1999, drag the GNP form 9.5 % to 7.8 % . He also predicted to CHina Peoples Bank Beijing staff July 2001 that China economy and high tech and ST stock price overheated ready for bubble burst 50-90 % correction  due to  domestic stimulus package and strong export growth (40 %) led to 22 % money supply growth. with GDP 8.3 % and Shanghai index soared to 2100 new high and crashed to 1500 while global stocks under correction due to US interest rate hike
The declining export, 50 billion domestic public construction deficit budget and 150 billion short term debt and falling corporate profit and falling prices as entering WTO . China feel the global slowdown early 2001 , as stock prices just completed correction Shanghai to 1450 from 2200  predicted by Dr. Huang  May 28 2002 in Beijin for Peking University tracking of China macro, financial trade economic impact on 700 listed corporate industries sectors demand, prices , profit margins and stock prices
China Housing prices bubble, wealth effect Simulation /Forecasts:
This equation predicted China housing prices soared 10 times during 1986- 1994 as money supply growth soared form -5 % to 35 %, Beijin, Shanghai house prices soared 10 times, ranking top 5 in global prices, as Shanghai stock index soared from 150 to 1500 . Housing prices plunge 70 % as money supply growth plunge from 35 to 12 %, during 1994- 1998, It rebound 30 % as money supply growth from 12 % to 15 % in Asian crisis recovery in 1999 and government economic stimulus package, Shanghai index rebound from 520 to 2100 since 1999,-2001. It gained another 60- 100 % since 2000 as 55 Billion US $ Foreign capital pouring into Beijin, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Gunazhou. and Bohai area
China housing, banking, auto stocks plunged 30-50 % due to China Peoples banks concerned on excessive loan demand (23 % increase ) led to China Peoples bank raised banks deposit ratio from 6 to 7 % try to cut money supply growth from 23 % to  14- 15 % target
Reserve our Monetary policy impact on China  housing and banking stock performance, risk management workshops  email osawhh@citiz.net,  wh3928@yahoo.com

Monetary Policy on China Macro, regional, industrial economics asset prices  and stocks prices: China  stock prices and monetary policy impact on consumer and business spending. China stock prices, monetary policy impact on housing properties prices and rent China stock prices, monetary policy impact on GDP macro-economics performance. Global stock prices, monetary policy impact on China   corporate profit margin Global monetary policy, external shocks( commodities, currency and credit default) impact  on burst, burst, abrupt change of consumer, business confidence (Asian crisis, LTCM)

Dr. Warren Huang accurately predicted China's 1994 runaway inflation at 30 % with currency depreciation of 100 %, money supply growth at 35 %, forced central bank raise interest rate to 25 % tighten money supply growth to 15 % Shanghai A plunged from 1500 to 333, rebounded to 900 and stayed between 600- 800 during 1994- 1996 , achieved soft-landing in 1996, stock index rally to 1600 in 1997. The results spoke to 30 million 15 cities TV, radio audience during 1994- 1997
He also predicted  1997 Thailand and ASEAN currency crisis and 1998 summer on osawh.com and Rome speech  that the falling oil, commodity prices and strong dollar will lead to  US  cut interest rates , to allowed  Asian countries cut interest rate to precrisis level, stock rebound strongly lead to increased Thailand and  Asian export growth, consumer demand, and recovery. 
Dr. Huang also accurately predicted on May 1999 in Macoa on  China peoples bank governor sponsored global central banks governors conference that  US Fed will raise fund rate in June  1999 due to soaring stocks, properties, oil prices, which will take US stocks and Asian stock prices into minimum 15 % correction, and some internet stock with 50-90  % corrections, Dow Jones will test 10,000, Nasdaq test 2500 and CHina Shanghai A will rebound to 1800 .
China Economy, financial markets   OSA: 2000-2002
China  is  fully recovered from deflation and back to 8 % GDP growth in 2000, enjoyed 8 % GDP in the first half 2001, stocks making new high Shanghai A soared from 1100 to 2240, Shenzhen A soared from 3000 to 5100. in June 2001. However, Dr. Huang warned  to Beijin Peoples Bank financial staff in July 2001 that China stocks overheated fail to reflect US recession resulted export slowdown. , Restructuring, high tech and B stock facing bubble burst, plunge 50 % to 70 % , Guanxia stock plunged from 50 to 1.0 in accounting maltpractices later last year, Shanghai A plunged form 2200 to 1350, B plunged from 300 to 126
China  Macro/financial/trade economy, Simulation of China Peoples bank monetary policy impact on daily Chinese financial markets  Shanghai, Shenzhen A,B , US China IPO prices
Dr. Huang accurately predicted that hurting by US rate hike, economic recession in 2001, prices cutting in consumer  goods (US GDP growth from 7.3 % down to -1.7 %)   China   Dec 2001 export growth down from 40 % to 4 %, as import growth  28 %, cutting trade surplus from 2.5 billion to  500 million,  first  11 month trade surplus at   22 billion .US recovery in first quarter boosted China export growth to 27 % however slowdown to 6 % in March 2002.  following  government 150 billion stimulus package in the first half    to stimulate domestic demand, increased personal income, spending lead the country out of deflation, with prices index up 0.38 %, and GDP of  7.8 %     China  retail sale, industrial producton up 11 % in the first half  which led to stock prices rebouind 25 %: Shanghai A from 1350 to 1750 and   firm RMB currency. 
However, China export  continue to expand  18 % despite US slowdown in the second  quarter 2002  with the help of 150 billion government stimulus package,  money supply growth M1 expand from 10 % to 15 % led Shanghai stock index rebound from 1450 to 1750 (predicted by Dr. Huang May 28 in Beijin) China plan deficit spending in  public spending and enterprises upgrade for WTO impact( banks raised reserve capital to 8 % from 6 % as required by WTO and global slowdown related prices
Shanghai, Shenzhen A, B stock Index     Daily hot stocks OSA     weekend hot stocks review OSA
Both markets are overheated by sector rotation   speculating on, ST block (restructuring) high-tech stocks with  Shanghai A soared from 1350 to 1750, SHanzhen from 2800 to  3555,  ignoring falling global demand and prices for high  tech products and soaring oil and raw material prices , will giveup 20 % of  it's recent gains going for 10- 15 % correction consolidation due to Peoples bank concerned overheated loan demand, falling auto, banking, housing stock 30 % correction will drag  Shanghia A  near term traded between 1300-  1550  medium term  traded between 1450- 1665, SHenzhen A near term traded between 2800-3350 medium term , between 2900 -3600    IPO stocks and ST block stocks  earning are disappointing due to rising oils, raw material, energy costs and falling products prices.  high  priced  high tech stocks    will be down compressed to 30-35  and most other high tech, computer internet stock  with disappointing earning will be compressed to 15-25 while medium priced stocks( 9-18) are hurt by disappointing banking, finance, high, drug, earn TV appliance stock(hurt by Konka, Chonghon disapointing loss. Low priced stocks (3- 5) in paper, cement, steel, petrochemicals are facing rising oils, raw materials  and fuel costs have little room for growth. ST blocks earning decline further  drag  stock price down to below 5 to 8Shanghai A  Dr. Huang  accurately  predicted that suffered from poor 2001 year   earning report , troubled by falling prices,and soaring oil prices further cutting into manufacturing earning (low and medium prices range steel, autom metal, petrochemical, paper industries), lead to  Shanghai A    techical rebound lead by low prices (below 3.5 RMB) share  took the index back to  1750, Shanzhen A  technical rebound lead by low prices (below 3.56 RMB) share   to 3555 s predicted by  Dr. Huang High flier High-tech already down   70% from it's peak, are headed down  for another 10 % to 35, Medium prices share including ST block (priced between 11 and 28) with earning decline  will be down 10 %, while low prices share down 20 % However those share with earning gain will rebound 10- 20 %
Shanghai A index will be traded between 1350-1500 and , WHile Shenzhen A index traded between 2950- 3550. Shanghai B index will be traded between 90-115 Shenzhen B index traded between140- 165
. Housing markets demand peaking out due to credit tightening, ,finance industry hurt by bad  loan, small interest spread, nonperformance loan and falling corporate profits due to price cutting WTO impact.  Recent  crude oil, fuel prices cut will improve  petrochemical, fibers industry profits,  for  rally in that industry., . and no leading drug in  drug industry for profit generation put ceiling in stock prices ,
Click for today's most active, high prices stocks, high tech stocks analysis
merger, IPO , industrial sector performanace, most active stock prices compression  investment strategy:  
Dr. Huang accurately  All IPO are doubled, especially High tech IPO above 50  will be facing correction pressure  including  the highest stock price in China A, will facing selling pressure to drop to 40's  .  As  all IPO   already overpriced.,  gaveup  their gain, poor finance and properties corporate earning  due to oversupply and weak loan demand g already down 70 % from 200 million to 50)  Foreign Direct investment  : up  50 %  with 55 Billion USD  in 2003 will go up to 57 billion this year, benefited by strong export, RMB,  

========= Special Strategic Wealth management conference, workshops  Announcement =============
OSA pioneer Dr. Warren Huang return from  Asia, lectured on Monetary policy impact on global capital markets asset prices, bubble early warning, risk management  to Euro-events  Asian finance, capital markets conference Nov. 5, 2003, China, finance, capital market conference, Nov. 25, 2003, Shanghai, Nov. 27, Beijin, 2003 accurately predicted US will raise interest rate by May, 2004, China will continue credit tightening, as confirmed by China People's bank Jan 5 to cut the money supply growth from 2003's 18 % to 14- 15 % this year and Greenspan indicated the need for rate hike  will offer keynote speech and half day workshop for Wealth Management Conference: March. 23-25, 2004, Singapore. He will speak on Global strategic wealth management , asset allocation, and risk hedging , introducing thousands strategic investment simulators predicted 3 month ahead  on global financial crisis, asset, wealth bubble burst, avoided trillion dollar market, wealth loss for 30 million China, Taiwan, Asian, US, European investors since 1985
He will offer in-house strategic wealth management workshops for Beijin, Shanghai, Hong, Kong, Taipei, Singapore QFII, QDII, VIP investors, traders , banking, insurance CEO, executives during Feb- March
reserve by osawhh@citiz.net  /wh3928@yahoo.com
=====================================================================================
Goal: Thousands Structural, Dynamic tracking simulation the root causes of  ASEAN currency crisis,  Asian financial crisis , Taiwan bubble burst, China runaway inflation, China peoples bank's monetary policy and daily money open market operations impact on China macro GNP, inflation, export,  interest rates, currency,  stocks, commodity, properties prices impact on consumer and business spending, wealth effect, risk management to predict, forecast overpriced asset prices resulted regional consumers spending, FDI and industrial imbalance and business profit slump due to central banks excessive consumer credit/ raising interest rates to cool off the economy, leading to bubble burst and abrupt change in consumer and business confidence caused stock prices plunges with average error below 1.5 %, correlation constant above 0.95. 

 ====Global ( China, US, Taiwan, Asian, European) Central Banks monetary policy , Daily Open Market Operations impact on capital market asset prices bubbles, wealth effect early warning Simulation  since 1985 =====
Hundred thousands integrated, global  structural, dynamics, deterministic proprietary model simulators
first time  shown on this website the most reliable  global central banks monetary policy, daily  open market operations impact on stock indices , currency , wealth management OSA simulation sample charts (last update Oct. 2002)
OSA Simulation Charts tracking forecasts 1-3 month ahead monetary policy impact on last 20 years daily
A. Consumer spending, Fed Fund rate, Dollar exchange rate impact on Dow Jones Index
B. Japan money supply growth, Yen exchange rate, Dow Jones impact on Tokyo Nikkei index
C. EU  money supply growth, EURO exchange rate, Dow Jones impact on German DAX index
D. Hong Kong money supply growth, interbank rate, Dow Jones impact on Henseng index have  
E.  US and EURO trade deficit/surplus, interest rate spread impact on EURO exchange rate
F. US and  Japan trade deficit/surplus, interest rate spread impact on  YEN  exchange rate
developed, implemented by OSA pioneer Dr. Warren Huang, supporting the following  goal, mission, performance oriented outsourcing strategic centers corporate/ memberships/ workshops   tailored to global government, enterprises, banking, finances enterprises  board members, think tank and
OSA pioneer Dr. Warren Huang will offer keynote speech and half day workshop on Global strategic wealth effect early warning and risk hedging for Wealth Management Conference: March. 23-35, 2004, Grand Hyatt, Singapore .He will offer in-house strategic wealth management workshops for Beijin, Shanghai, Hong, Kong, Taipei, Singapore QFII, QDII, banking CEO, executives during Feb- March
Book your Asian Strategic Wealth Management in-house workshops osawhh@citiz.net  
= Shanghai/Beijin Euro-events   Conference/in-house workshops Announcement ===========
==  China Finance, Capital Market Summit  Conference/in-house workshops ====
You are welcome to join Dr. Huang lecture to Shanghai lectures to  Euro-Events  China Finance and Capital Market  SUMMIT conference and booth at Grand Ballroom , 500, Weihai Rd. , Four Seasons Hotel,  Nov. 25 and  Beijin  Nov.  27 to 400  China  government regulation, banking, finance ,  QFII, corporate CEO, CFO, executives on Monetary, economic, fiscal policy WTO impact on China economy and capital market asset prices, bubble, simulation, risk management  He will demonstrate his successful experience in predicting 1994-96 macroeconomic control soft-landing (offered thousand nationwide TV, radio daily tracking lecturing and 100 banking, finance companies risk management) and current China Peoples Bank credit tightening
 www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm2003
Other Asian countries  by reservation  osawhh@citiz.net   or  wh3928@yahoo.com Dr. Warren Huang speak to Shanghai Finance and Economic University China Finance for sustainable growth Shanghai Oct. 25  and Dec. 20 to Peking University Chine economic research center sponsored China economic society annual meeting at Fudan University ( lecutures ppt.)  on Strategic China  Banking, Finance, Enterprises Reform  introducing OSA simulation models. on-China capital market asset prices simulation, bubble early warning Monetary , economic, fiscal policy , foreign investments impact on China  capital market  industrial sectors market  forces in market economy,  demand, prices mechanism, profit margin, investment return and risk management 
He will offer Shanghai  full day in house CEO/CFO financial managers  China capital market , banking, finance, reform and capital market asset prices  mechanism  SUMMIT workshops 
===  Singapore Asia Finance, Capital Market Summit  Conference/in-house workshops ====
Dr. Huang accurately predicted US, Asian stock 10 % retreat, CHina A, B, H shares rebound on  Singapore Euro-Events Asian Finance and Capital Market  SUMMIT conference Nov.5 to three  hundred Asian government regulation, , banking, finance , corporate CEO, CFO, executives on Monetary, economic, fiscal policy WTO impact on Asian ( China, Hong Kong, Japan, Korea, Singapore, Taiwan) economy and capital market asset prices, bubble, simulation, risk management  http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/  with excellent feedback photos 1, 2, 3 lecture ppt
Other Asian countries by reservation  osawhh@citiz.net   or  wh3928@yahoo.com


OSA pioneer Dr. Warren Huang accurately tracking, forecast China monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on China macro economy, industrial sectors demand, prices, corporate profit, stock prices since 1989 Tiaman  till today: covering   Asian crisis, US recession., recovery and  lectured on Monetary policy impact on global capital markets asset prices, bubble early warning, risk management  to Euro-events  Asian finance, capital markets conference Nov. 5, 2003, China, finance, capital market conference, Nov. 25, 2003, Shanghai, Nov. 27, Beijin, 2003 accurately predicted US will raise interest rate by May, 2004, China will continue credit tightening, as confirmed by China People's bank Jan 5 to cut the money supply growth from 2003's 18 % to 14- 15 % this year and Greenspan indicated the need for rate hike  
He lectured 30 million 15 cities (Beijin, SHanghai, Shenzhen, Guanzhou )nationwide TV, radio audiences, offered thousands investment strategy, risk management workshops to 100 nationwide banking, securities companies CEO,CFO,money managers, VIP traders, published thousand articles, newsletters to China, Shanghai, Shenzhen. Wuhan  securities, China financial times, economic daily news papers accurately predicted China credit tightening in 1994-96 macroeconomic control, Shanghai A traded 600-800 and rate cut soft-landing 1996, bull market , invited to speak to 24 China Peolpes Banks, Taiwan, US Fed, ECB, APEC central banks governor conferences on global financial crisis simulation, risk management since 1998.
He warned on www.sina.com that US and global high tech bubble burst, for 50-90 % correction and
Shanghai index doubled to 2200 in 2001 and warned July iin Beijin to China Peolpes banks staff the China stocks overheated for 30 % correction to 1400, due to US,global recession,   Dow Jones drag Nikkei, Henseng below 9000. AND agian May 28-29, 2002 at Beijin University that global stocks over optimistic over US recovery, ready for 30-50 % correction Dow Jones below 8000, but Shanghai A rebound to 1750.             Sept. 8, 2002  Edition
click for CHina A, B stocks real time quote http://finance.sina.com.cn/
China housing, banking, auto stocks plunged 30-50 % due to China Peoples banks concerned on excessive loan demand (23 % increase ) drag Shanghai A test 1350-1450, Shenzhen test 2850-3050               Aug. 2003 rev.

Daily most active stocks OSA forecasts:

These deterministic, dynamic simulation of last 20 years global asset prices, and economy boom and bust of the asset bubble vicious cycle of excessive monetary policy, low interest rate induced sustained long term bull markets stocks prices gain caused consumer and business spending in real estate properties pushed soaring housing prices and rent. And deficit spending (negative saving) in stock markets, pushed the stock s even higher, until abrupt reverse of consumer and investor confidence --the bubble burst- plunge of stocks and properties prices as it happened in US, Japan, Taiwan in 1980, 1987, 1990, energy crisis, EURO 1992 currency crisis, 1994 China runaway inflation, 1995 Mexico crisis, 1997-98 ASEAN, Japan, Korea, Russia, Brazil currency crisis, all caused by overpriced stock prices due to excess monetary policy and high GDP growth
USA    China   Hong Kong   Taiwan    Thailand   Japan    S. Korea    Singapore  Malaysia Phillipines  Indonesia   Viet-Nan   India  UK/EURO  Russia/E. Europe  Mexico   Argentina  Brazil

with over 30 years  experiences  supporting millions global government, banking, finance, enterprises  CEO, CFO, executives daily strategic decision analysis on reform, change management cope with fast changing markets competitions

Government reform, strategic monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact macro economic, financial market prices stability  executives in-house workshopsutyour l

 by  Dr. Warren Huang, Pioneer OSA
The  leader in Global Strategic Management
Millions global government, banking, finance, state, medium enterprises, multinationals CEO, CFO,
investment bankers, money managers, supply chain logistics executives joined global strategic OSA public and In-House executives workshops since 1984.  These executives bring their daily problems to the workshops take home strategic solution avoid trillion dollar market loss, saved billions dollar supply chain costs ready to implement. 
He offered thousands daily tracking, analysis lectures during China run away inflation and Asian financial crisis ( 1994- 98) for  30 million China, Taiwan 15 cities TV, radio economic program investors, banking, finance executives. He provide daily global economy, financial market investment, supply chain strategy on www.osawh.com for millions US, Asian, European, global government, banking, finance, enterprises executives visitors tracking daily forecasts since 1998.
He pioneered and develop, implemented thousands information knowledge based strategic investment, supply chain Operations Simulation Analysis (OSA) dynamic decision simulators since 1984; tracking, forecast 1- 3 month ahead accurately last 20 years monetary, economic, fiscal policy, WTO impact on global  macro economic boom and bust, daily capital market asset prices, provide root causes, onset, spread, recovery and early warning for global financial, energy, currency, asset bubble burst, corporate scandals, trillion market loss, NPL loan and the only reliable , independent decision policy and equities  research tools for global executives decisions.  results invited to speak to 24 global central banks governors, financial risk management, corporate governance, business, government strategy conference and 100 international chemical engineering,  BPR  process/ productivity  improvement, optimal control conference in 50 countries.
He conducted teaching, research at National Taiwan, Tsinghwa, University, Tunghai university trained 1000 industrial economic, global strategic management, process simulation, control senior, graduate students tracking 100 countries macro/finance/industrial economics and lecturing China Tsinghua, Peking, Fudan, Jiaotung, Zechiang, Dalian universities  Hua-zhon Science & Tech on economic management, Financial engineering, MIS, EMBA/CFA 
He received his MS from Polytech Inst. of New York in Chemical Engineering, Optimal game simulation, control, Ph.D from Univ. of Oklahoma, in Chemical Engineering, Operations Research,
with Ph.D theses in Nonlinear Adaptive Kalman Filtering, stochastic control, with application to chemical reactors and macroeconomic control.
He has over 30 years development, implementation of global strategic investment, supply chain management for US Bechtel, Mobil, AMOCO, Phillips Petroleum Stauffer Chemicals, Bailey network control US head quarters corporate finance, computer sciences department. and extended to Taiwan, China , Asian government, thousands banking finance, state, medium, small enterprises reform, investment, production, supply chain logistics change management, 300,000 importer/ exporters 100 countries currency, competitive pricing.
He patented " Improve Process by OSA ", in US Hydrocarbon Processing and develop, implemented  32 global strategic investment, supply chain systems, published on advanced control and information management handbook 1991- 2003 circulated to 82 countries  and wrote thousands articles on US, Taiwan, China government, banking, economics, finance, industrials, trade journals, daily newspapers.

Central banking monetary policy impact simulation workshops   
Goal:
monetary policy for sustainable growth and financial market asset prices stability ( not just consumer prices inflation)

Mission:
Applying our 30 year experiences in predictives  ( 1- 3 month ahead) strategic monetary policy impact Operations Simulation Analysis (OSA) for 40 countries tracking, forecasts accurately the root causes, onset, spread, recovery , early warning of last 25 years global  financial, currency, energy, recession, asset bubble burst crisis feed-forward control to prevention overshooting, delay action , uneven economic development resulted asset bubbles overheating and trillion dollar market loss and NPL loan.
implement, recommend on your current policy impact on growth and prices stability OSA  

Operations Management and Performance Guidance, Control
Lecturer: Dr. Warren Huang, pioneer of monetary policy impact OSA will direct your goal, mission, performance oriented strategic and execution OSA teams in the workshops to develop, implement your own policy impact OSA, tracking results have been presented to 24 US, China, Taiwan, ECB, Asian central banks governors conferences 1998-2003 and www.osawh.com website visited by million global
central banks, banking, finance, corporate executives

Scopes: Monetary, Economic, Fiscal  Policy Impact Simulation on:
Why we have uneven economic development in regional, industries, How to use industrial finance simulation to avoid it
Macro economics :GDP, inflation, consumer, business spending, unemployment
Financial Economics/ financial market prices: interest rates, currency, stock indices
Industrial asset demand /prices:  Housing, oil/ commodity prices, 20 industrial sector products prices.
Trade Economics: export/import/trade surplus/deficit, currency, competitive pricing market shares.
Optimal monetary policy control  for sustainable growth and prices stability
Who should attend: central banks chairman, regional governors, macro/financial/industrial/trade economic research, executives and banking, securities, insurance regulation executives, banking,
securities companies CEO, CFO, investment bankers, money managers, economic policy planner, SOE, medium enterprises CEO, CFO, board members, auditing committee. 
Reservation Form: wh3928@yahoo.com/ osawhh@citiz.net one month ahead of your date
Location: Your office

Banking, Finance, Corporate Governance Reform, Scandals Early Warning
Financial Accounting Systems OSA Maximize Perfromance, Transparency
 

                                       by  Dr. Warren Huang, Pioneer OSA
Goal:
Strategic Corporate Governance Maximize Corporate Profit and board members, investors performance and financial accounting transparency.
 
Mission:

Applying our 30 year experiences in predictives  ( 1- 3 month ahead) strategic monetary policy impact Operations Simulation Analysis (OSA) on corporate profit/loss financial statements, board members, investors  for US, China, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Asian countries; tracking, forecasts accurately the root causes, onset, spread, recovery , early warning of last 20  years global  financial, currency, energy, recession, asset bubble burst crisis resulted corporate accounting scandals to prevent market analyst, corporate executives speculation on inflated profits and hiding loss resulted stock price bubble resulted trillion dollar market loss and NPL loan.
implement, recommend on your financial accounting systems simulation and early warning supporting Sabarnes- Oxley Act audit, compensation committee, oversight board, government securities, banking, insurance regulation tracking possible fraud.

Operations Management and Performance Guidance, Control
Lecturer: Dr. Warren Huang, pioneer of monetary policy impact OSA will direct your goal, mission, performance oriented strategic and execution corporate governance OSA teams in the workshops to develop, implement your own strategic solution maximize corporate profits, board members, investors performance, transparency,  tracking results have been presented to 24 US, China, Taiwan, ECB, Asian central banks governors , corporate governance conferences 1998-2003  and  www.osawh.com website visited by million global central banks, banking, finance, corporate executives

Scopes: Monetary, Economic, Fiscal  Policy Impact Simulation on:
Monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on asset prices, bubble, cost and accounting system profit/loss simulation , tracking on and off  balance sheet entities.
Corporate sales, earning OSA,
Pre/post Merger/acquisition OSA
Corporate reform, IPO performance  OSA
Structural finance derivatives prices OSA
Goal, Mission, Performance oriented corporate governance strategic, execution OSA teams maximize corporate profits, supporting Sarbanes-Oxley Act , securities, banking, insurance regulation audit, compensation committee, board members, investors performances, transparency.
Case studies: tracking the root causes, onset, recovery of global corporate accounting scandals
 US  Enron,  WCOM,  TYCO, Global Crossing
China Guanxia,  numerous  high tech reform ST stocks
Taiwan Fertilizer, China Development Banks, Banks, Construction industries.
Who should attend: Accounting oversight board, banking, securities corporate CEO, CFO, board, audit, compensation committee, investors , accountants,  investment bankers.. 
Reservation Form: wh3928@yahoo.com/ osawhh@citiz.net  one month ahead of your date
Location: Your office  

 Monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on industrial sectors demand, asset prices, bubbles,  investment, supply chain costs, profits, stock prices
 Series One  : Monetary policy impact on US, China, Taiwan, Hong Kong housing demand, prices, bubbles, investment, supply chain costs, profit strategic management workshops ( select your country )

                                       by  Dr. Warren Huang, Pioneer OSA
Goal:

Strategic Housing investment, supply chain cost reduction maximize operating profits, investment return and minimize bubble burst resulted trillion dollar market loss, NPL loan defaults
 
Mission:

Applying our 30 year experiences in predictives  ( 1- 3 month ahead) strategic monetary policy impact Operations Simulation Analysis (OSA) on  US, China, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Asian countries housing and construction materials industry , mortgage loan banks corporate profits, stock prices investment, supply chain logistics cost performance.  
Tracking ;  forecasts accurately the root causes, onset, spread, recovery , early warning of last 20  years global housing bubble burst  resulted trillion dollar market loss, NPL loan asset  and asset securitization risks 
implement, recommend on your housing, finance, construction material investment, supply chain logistics cost reduction strategy  
Operations Management and Performance Guidance, Control
Lecturer: Dr. Warren Huang, pioneer of monetary policy impact OSA will direct your goal, mission, performance oriented strategic and execution housing and construction materials industry , mortgage loan banks OSA teams in the workshops to develop, implement your own strategic solution maximize corporate profits at minimum risks
Tracking results have been presented to 24 US, China, Taiwan, ECB, Asian central banks governors , corporate governance conferences 1998-2003  and  www.osawh.com thousands lectures to China, Taiwan 15 cities TV, radio station investors, hundreds banking, securities, real estate CEO, CFO, executives , wrote thousands articles on government, economics , banking industrial finance daily newpapers, journals tracking listed housing, mortgage banks, construction materials companies investment, supply chain cost, profits, investment strategy,  website visited by million global central banks, banking, finance, corporate executives

Scopes: Monetary, Economic, Fiscal  Policy Impact Simulation on:
Monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on housing and construction materials industry , mortgage loan banks asset prices, bubble, cost and  profit/loss simulation , investment strategy
housing and construction materials industry , mortgage loan  demand, prices OSA  
Housing construction materials cost /prices, supply chain costs  simulation
Pre/post Merger/acquisition OSA
Corporate reform, Strategic Asset management, Asset/Mortgage backed  securitization prices risks
Case studies:
The root causes, onset, recovery, early warning of properties NPL asset OSA
US mortgage companies Fannie Mai, Freddie Mac
China, Taiwan, Hong Kong listed housing and construction materials industry , mortgage loan banks
Goal, Mission, Performance oriented corporate governance strategic, execution OSA teams maximize corporate profits, minimize investment, bubble burst risks early warning and support  banking, insurance regulation audit, compensation committee, board members, investors performances, transparency.
Who should attend:Housing and construction materials industry , mortgage loan banks banking, securities, investment bankers corporate CEO, CFO, supply chain logistics managers , securities, insurance, banking regulation commission, board, audit, compensation committee, investors , accountants. 
Reservation Form: wh3928@yahoo.com/ osawhh@citiz.net  one month ahead of your date
Location: Your office 

Website : www.osawh.com email: whuang@osawh.com / whuang3928@aol.com
Tel 1-510-524-0283 Fax 1-510-524-4484
Services: Bubble Burst simulation and prevention Workshops , On the Job Training program : OSA Strategic, execution teams All supported by simulation charts for training simulators.

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