|                    Global  Financial Crisis Causes, Early Warning Recession, Recovery , Exit Strategy Risk Management Strategy for China ----
 Proactive Structural analysis of China Economic, Stimulus Exit Strategy,  Excessive Liquidity impact on 2009 monetary , economic policy     housing, stock markets price bubble, industrial , consumer, business demand, industrial sectors performance , strategic risk management workshops:
         March- April 2010  for Government, banking, finance and manufacturing senior executives develop , implemented by top down and bottom up strategic- execution OSA team directed by Proactive Structural Global Financial Crisis  OSA pioneer  Proactive Structural Dr. Warren Huang 
              

Global  Financial Crisis Causes, Early Warning Recession, Recovery, Exit  Strategic Macro ,Value Investing, Risk Management Workshops---- Proactive Structural analysis
:Select your countries and industry among  ( US    China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, India,    Russia  ECB, ASEAN countries, Japan, Korea)

China Economic Stimulus, Credit, Financial Crisis,  Recession, Recovery   Impact on China Housing, Banking, Financial, Manufacturing Asset  Bubbles Risks Early Warning Workshops

 by Quantitative top down country, industry, company specific macro-financial  decisions modeling  through Proactive Structural Dynamic Financial and commodities future ,housing, equities asset prices bubbles ,mechanism for China macro investing, value investment , Risks Valuation  and hedging Operations Simulation Analysis  (OSA)
 by OSA proactive structural asset pricing pioneer Dr/Prof.  Warren Huang Global Finance, Capital Markets, Macroeconomic  Integration Proactive Strategic Simulation (two master hands controlling) optimal solution coping with policy tri-lemma problem in global capital markets  growth without asset  prices bubbles Proactive Recession fighting Strategy
 Institutional Investors  Wealth Management Corporate Finance Int'l Finance  CPA/CFA/CFO training
 Global Strategic Management   Proactive investment, risk management: OSA two master hands controlling global macro  economy , finance, capital market prices for QFII/QDII managers, private, institutional investors  investment  workshops achieve sustainable profit growth

                                           Your in-house strategic workshop  by appointment     for Chinese/global   banking, finance and manufacturing senior executives     
by    OSA Proactive  Structural asset pricing mechanism  pioneer Dr. Warren Huang   website: www.osawh.com       San Francisco  USA    email  wh3928@yahoo.com

Bring your past, current operations, investment, financial crisis,  risks management and future problems to these 2 day  4 units conference workshops, You will take home from Dr Warren Huang  the what, why, how and timing of  causes, onset, recovery, early warning of current financial crisis and trillion dollar strategic financial investment and manufacturing enterprises  risks management  and billion dollar supply chain cost reduction with expanded market shares solution to maximize sustainable risk adjusted return for banking, finance and enterprises risk management  by Dr. Huang’s Information Management and advanced control handbook   Oil, downstream value chain profit optimization, risk control 

    Dr. Warren Huang, Pioneer of precise quantitative deterministic, dynamic  top down, country, industries, company specific proactive structural simulation of  Global Housing, Commodities, Equities Asset Demand, and derivatives  Prices Mechanism tracking forecast   Credit, Financial Crisis, Recession, causes, onset, recovery, risks early warning and impact on Economy, housing, equities, currency, oil, energy, metals, commodity,, IT manufacturing assets and derivative prices for strategic value investing,  financial and enterprises risk  valuation mechanism early warning , predicted year, month ahead of  last 30 years financial, energy, currency crisis and recession ,capitalized on hedging trillion dollar recession ,value chain  , investment profit while avoided trillion dollar loss in housing MBS, CMBS, CDO, CDS , equities  market price bubble burst investment and hedging loss due to current statistical , probability based qualitative, scenario analysis using macro, financial decision modeling asset pricing, credit rating and VaR  risks valuation have been implemented by Dr. Huang's goal, mission, performance oriented strategic, ( top, senior management), and executive (managerial ) market, credit, operational risk management business unit, integrating into core business units ( finance, supply demand, market sales chain) reporting to CEO on weekly and daily basis maximize risk adjusted return . He has over 30 years development, implementation of oil, petrochemical , IT and downstream supply- value chain profit optimization and risk management experiences for US, China, Taiwan multinational and 80 countries senior executives training

Global Financial Crisis, Causes, Early Warning, Recession Recovery:
He lectured China, US, Taiwan 15 cities TV, radio 30 million  fund managers, investors , 24 global central banks governors , risk management conferences , thousands  workshops for  global investment, banking, mortgage, manufacturing CEO, senior executives tracking forecast last 20 year global financial, energy crisis, recessions, risks early warning
He predicted ,warned  global MBS, CDO managing directors on current  China, US, equities, housing bubble burst financial crisis  last through 2009 drag stocks , oil, commodities prices into 70 %  , housing 30-50 % correction on Peking University Int'l financial risks management conference and Wall Street Journal Market Beat Blog Sept 2007 and Pudong Shanghai March, 2008 China Fund World 2008, to global investment banks senior executives and master class workshop ,  keynote speakers on 2009 China derivatives market summit forum Pudong, Mar 8,  and Deleveraged finance and merger-acquisition private fund summit in Hong Kong, Feb 25, 2009 predicted  US  housing bubble burst , recession, credit, financial crisis, capital markets ,  bottom out in recession recovery n March  and China Economic, capital market outlook responding to Infrastructure Program to boost domestic demand in fighting the global recession and crisis

China Economic Stimulus Impact
 China   357 billion USD economic stimulus  , China 2009 first half   personal income up 9.8 % CPI down 1.1% PPI down 8 %,  , GDP　up 7.9 % fixed investment   up 33.5 %  industrial production up 9 %   export decline 23 %with excessive liquidity ( money supply growth  doubled from 15 % to 28 % in  July 2009 )with banking loan growth of 7 trillion in the first half 2009, down to 3355 billion in July, overheated excessive liquidity facing micro control to cool off the asset prices bubbles in housing and stock mark already leading to stock market up 100% ( up from 1660 to 3477) , despite 70 % of first half earning facing decline and loss and only 30 % earning increase, most prices already exceed 2007 6000 point peak level and PE  of 65 approaching  2007 peak, and housing price bubble, Beijing housing prices up 30 % in the first half 2009 , with Shanghai, Shenzhen, Shenzhen housing prices reaching all time high (over 2007 peak level, forced China Peoples Bank credit tightening driving excess liquidity ( 50 % of 7 trillion bank loan stay in stock and housing market speculation)  from stocks and housing market into real economy construction. in mid- Aug., 2009 leading to credit tightening in second mortgage with first down payment raised to 40 %  . China A share start correction , plunged from 3466 to 2750 predicted by Dr. Huang China blog in July   Housing bubbles in Yantze, Pearl River , Beijing Bohai delta, Shenzhen with housing price up 160-500 % auto demand  up 80 %  benefited by heavy foreign capital inflow  and 500 % stock price gain in 2007,  despite credit tightening stock prices plunged 75 %in 2008,housing price still up 1 % in July , 2009

             Strategic PGFCR  :   Proactive Global Housing, Credit,  Financial Crisis, Recession Operations Simulation) Forecast, complete coverage of  years, months, ahead of lat 30 years and current global housing, equities, commodities , MBS, ABS asset prices bubbles formation, boom and bust, early warning of  derivatives hedging resulted financial crisis, avoided betting on the wrong side of investment resulted  trillion dollar loss, deep recession and its impact through global macro, financial, industrial, trade economy integration and impact on daily capital market asset price mechanisms  tracking forecast month, years ahead last 30 years causes, onset, recovery, early warning of global financial crisis, recession through
Phase I  monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on Global Housing, Equities, Commodities, Bond, Derivatives Asset Prices  Bubble Burst Mechanism and Sub-prime on Daily Prices Dynamics , Subprime, mortgage, Credit crisis, Financial, Systemic Risks   impact on  Recession and
Phase II Global recession impact on banking, credit, financial crisis and industrial sectors demand, prices slump and operating loss
Phase III China/US global economic stimulus impact on domestic business investment, consumer demand, GDP, export and housing, stock, commodities, metals market prices., recession recovery.

 

 

Conducted by        Masterclass workshop lecturer::Dr

. Warren Huang (黃華南博士),

 Pioneer of Proactive Structural China/Global Financial Crisis Impact on Multi-class Asset, Derivatives  and risks valuation Strategic value investing and financial, enterprises risk management Mechanism Operations Simulations Analysis (OSA)    

Goal:                            Provide  banking, finance, investment fund managers and , energy, IT manufacturing executives  the what, why, how and timing of China/Global fund, derivatives market fundamental assets price mechanism, allocation , risk early warning and strategic risk management, forecast years, months ahead of the emerging economic recession, credit, financial market trends, avoided trillions market loss, betting on the wrong side of investment
Mission:   : Setup and training   Implement Proactive, Structural Dynamic  Global ( select your country) Equities, Bond, Currency Commodities Futures, Derivatives prices mechanism manufacturing value chain valuation forGlobal Economy, capital market, value chain profit optimization and risk control challenges, opportunities  

Day One: Housing, Banking Financial Crisis, Recession  2007- 09, causes, impact,  early warning China/Global   rate cuts, economic stimulus, bail out impact on banking finance performance, recession recovery 
Morning: Unit one: Proactive structural macro-financial decision models predict Housing, Banking Financial Crisis, Recession  2007- 09, causes, impact,  early warning

 * Causes  and Early Warning  of Housing and stock prices bubble burst: Proactive Structural dynamic OSA and   co-integrations of  China/Global central bank monetary , economic, fiscal policy ,series of rate hikes  removing excessive liquidity due to stocks, housing  bubble wealth  gain and  currency and housing industry price bubble overheating control  impact on housing, stock   prices bubbles burst,, fixed investment, inflation rate, un-employment rate. resulted US housing price slump, subprime mortgage crisis, 2007, housing , stock prices bubble burst, spread to US and global global financial crisis warned, by Dr. Warren Huang June International Financial risk management conference, Beijing, and Sept. Wall Street Journal Market Beat Blog. 2007

 * Impact Analysis Continued US housing market slump due to housing bubble burst will spread into broad mortgage and financial crisis and all other  manufacturing ( downstream of housing industries ) led to soaring unemployment, plunging  consumer, business demand and economic recession through 2009 , predicted by Dr. Huang on Wall Street Journal blog and Peking Univ. 2007 

Afternoon: Unit Two China/Global  Interest Rates, Money Supply, Liquidity, Bail out, Economic Stimulus Impact on Housing, Banking, Capital market assets  and derivatives pricing  and risks valuation mechanism, profits and stocks prices performance, and recession recovery
 * Interest rate, credit tightening, rate  cuts, bail out  economic stimulus , economic recession  impact on housing, equities asset prices  and derivatives (MBS, CMBS, ABS, CDO, CDS) prices bubble,  and mortgage default/foreclosure  impact on recession

*Proactive structural Banking, Finance Risks valuation mechanism:
China/US Financial  Systemic , Banking stress Risks Simulation :Top down asset price and risk valuation integrating macro, financial economic into industrial asst pricing , proactive structural interest rate, currency, commodities, asset pricing and systemic  risk valuation and Basel II Risks decision analysis

A. Credit risks valuation : Proactive structural credit default rating simulation replacing conventional credit score, probability approach for credit risk early warning management

B. Market risk valuation: Proactive structural market price valuation for VaR market maximum trading loss valuation risks simulation replacing conventional credit score, probability approach avoided underestimate the trillion dollar market loss due to betting on the wrong side of investment

C. Operational Risks : Proactive structural  operational risks  decision analysis simulation replacing conventional credit score, probability approach for credit and market  risk , provide reliable economic risk capital calculation. provide reliable tracking of all financial statement asset price and profit loss, maximize transparency for corporate governance

Day Two   Housing, Banking Financial Crisis, Recession  2007- 09 and Economic Stimulus Impact on China/Global   energy, IT manufacturing  value chain optimization, risk control, recession recovery

 Morning: Unit Three  Proactive structural top down integrating macro, financial economic impact on    2007- 09, and China/US IT, energy manufacturing supply value chain profits and risks control

 * Supply -Value chain asset prices valuation mechanism    Proactive Structural dynamic OSA tracking, simulation global central banks monetary, economic stimulus , fiscal policy impact on consumer, business spending impact on China/Global daily oil, energy, and IT up stream/downstream supply chain prices mechanism for raw material cost and product pricing  hedging  avoided billion dollar hedging raw materials and products loss . Predicted 2000 IT asset bubble burst  on China Peoples Bank governor central bank policy conference, 1999  and  current Housing price bubble, 2003 on Asian/China, Finance, Capital Market Conference Singapore, Shanghai  and on China Oil Marker Conference that oil price soared from 50 to 80 in 2006,2007 and predicted again on March , Pudong, China Fund World 2008 that US rate cutes drag dollar to new low and oil price from 75 to 147 in July and to China derivatives market conference.., Pudong, Chiina, Mar. 2009 US /China stimulus led to stock market and recession rebound from Mar. low, oil price rebound from 30 to 72.
Dr. Huang's over 30 years development, implementation of proactive structural simulation of   energy value, supply chain profit optimization and risk  control systems published on US Hydrocarbon Processing Information Management Systems  Advanced Control system Handbook 1991- 2005 applied for US, Taiwan, China, Asian, European 80 countries 2000 multinational energy and IT companies senior executives

 Enterprises Risks Management:
Proactive structural decision simulators tracking all phases of  China/US supply -value chain risks identification, monitoring, mitigation in project planning, construction, operations and equipment  preventive maintenances, to maximize risk adjusted return without interruption

Afternoon: Unit four Risks Operation Simulation Analysis teams development, implementing proactive structural country, industry, company specific  models and solution through  integrating risks into core business unit in daily operation and reporting. for banking, finance financial risks management and manufacturing supply-value chain profit optimization
Multidisciplinary maximize risk adjusted return as goal, strategic ( CEO, VP ) and execution ( managerial level) risks operations simulation analysis teams ,  integrating into core finance, marketing, supply chain core business units meeting daily, weekly, months identify, early warning, monitoring, and risk management, mitigation reporting to VP, CEO .

 Who Should Attend : Central banks policy research,  commercial, investment banking, real estate mortgage, mutual fund, hedge fund , wealth management manager mortgage bond structural finance ABS, RMBS, CDO, CDS securitization managers, insurance managers, oil, petrochemicals, IT downstream,  housing construction, commodities, metal, CEO, supply chain, investment managers, SWF fund managers, government regulation strategic (top management) , execution  teams 

Workshop Costs/ Benefits : Lecture fee plus Dr. Warren Huang round trip air fares from San Francisco, hotel,  for full day workshop with unlimited attendees 
Workshop recommendation will save trillions dollars in betting on the wrong direction of investment and default risks, loss, capitalize opportunities in economic slowdown, recession and asset prices bubbles burst  
Reserve by email  wh3928@yahoo.com  indicating your  favorite  time, your office address, and lists of executives names, title