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Canada Asset Bubble and Monetary, Economic, fiscal, Policy , oil prices Impact on Macroeconomic, money, currency, stocks, bond , properties Markets bubble bursts  Risks Operations Simulation Analysis
  Monetary policy Impact on  Asian Financial Crisis, Recovery  by Dr. Warren Huang        
  (Right master hand)

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Trillion dollar Nonperformance   assets Management, workshops,   sponsored by Peking Univeristy? Guahua School of Management, Executive Develpment Beijin zhoucs@gsm.pku.edu.cn
  OSA maximize nonperformance asset cost performance, value recovery, pre-warning for future NPL workshops in December in Asia  tracking the causes, onset, recovery, prevent of your   debt, equities, properties nonperformance  asset  email wh3928@yahoo.com for  your in-house workshop reservation
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  OSA Global Strategic Simulation/Forecasts, Your most powerful daily predictive decision tools--
Dr. Warren Huang CV  accurately predicted  Nov. 5, 2003 in Singapore ,Shanghai Euro-events conferencesSingapore http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/ photos 1, 2, 3 lecture ppt  , Shanghai, Beijin Nov. 2003  Asian/China finance, capital Markets conferences,  www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm   picture  2  and to China economists meeting Fudan University, Shanghai , Dec. over 2000 QFII/QDII executives, May 8, 15 to US Silicon Valley investors, radio station , and  www.osawh.com website that US Oil, commodity prices reaching 23 year high,  weak dollar due  to soaring trade deficit, ( 55.3 billion  for June) inflation up 5 %, bond market slump in May 2004  job creation, productivity, profit growth peaking out  in the second quarter 2004 Fed June, Aug  0.25 % rate hike China credit tightening, follow US rate hike in summer 2004, global stocks entering bear market consolidation, with 30- 50 % correction , avoided trillion dollar bond, equities, derivative market loss made trillion dollar oil, commodity derivatives market profit.
China Macroeconomic control tracking, forecasts: Despite  China Peoples Bank raised deposit ratio by 1.5 % and cutting capital investment in steel, cement, aluminum, auto loan lead to  some progress macroeconomic control with June money supply growth at 16.2 % (below 17 % target), auto sales down 20 %, asset prices, inflation retreat from May ( benefited by  oil, commodities prices down 15 % ). However June producer, consumer price still up 9.2 % ( coastal cities Beijin, Shanghai GDP up 14 %) from year ago, wealth effect, FDI drive housing prices up 28 % for coastal cities Shanghai, Ninbo first half GDP up 9. 7 % far above 7 % target, medium, long term loan up 32 % repeat 1994,  soaring China steel, cement, aluminum investment (over 120 %), coal, energy shortage,  stocks bull market is over, entering bear market consolidation, with Shanghai A testing 1300-1400, IPO and newly listed small cap shares plunge 30-50 % , low prices blue chips shares like Sinopec, Unicom will lead future rebound. , This supply side tightening are insufficient to cool  the uneven economic overheating, will follow US rate hike in Aug implement  structural  rate hikes to cut off excessive consumer demand in housing, construction materials, auto and retails  achieve soft landing Apr. 2005,   He also predicted  Oct. 1994 to China Wuhan securities news, Wangguo,  Kuotai  securities investors, Beijin  China Financial Times, China macroeconomic control will be soft-landing 1996, Shanghai A will be traded  between 600- 800 during 1994- 1996 He recommended that China stocks will be very attractive to QFII in the new Millennium
Global central banks, economist, financial market , industrial sectors analysts ignoring ,Dr. Huang photo  warning to ECB, JP Morgan in Rome, China Peoples Bank governor Dai central bank governors conference in Macao, Taiwan central bank governor Asian Pacific conference Taipei, APEC finance Thailand prime minister, ASEAN central bank governors conferences in Bangkok, US Fed  governors , Washington Area, NASD finance conferences 1998-2000 on  IT asset bubble bursts
US macroeconomic, inflation control  tracking, forecasts: Dr. Huang spoke to Euro-events Singapore , Shanghai, Beijin Nov.  2003  Asian/China Finance, Capital Markets conferences lecture to 2000 QFII, QDII mutual fund managers and  China Economist annual meeting Dec. 20 and www.osawh.com  website and thousands workshops  warning  US, global analysts over optimistic  over second half 2004 economic recovery, profit growth, bull market rally, job creation, underestimated on the impact of US dollar depreciation, excessive rate, tax cuts , 45 trillion dollar  housing, equities wealth effect resulted excessive consumer, business demand, ISM peaking out at 66 driving soaring oil, commodities, metals asset prices bubble reaching 23 year high in March and Aug.  2004  US trade deficit soared to 55 billion and inflation, facing credit tightening, rate hikes after May, Aug. 2004, profit , productivity growth , consumer confidence, business spending,  peaking out, facing  squeeze in  summer 2004, Job creation peaking out at March 370,000,  May 230,000, June 80,000, July only 32,000 stock prices peaking out in the second quarter, China and US, Global stocks bull markets are over, entering bear market consolidation.   US High tech, finance, housing, retails, auto share will give up  all its 2004 gain plunge  30-50 % and  trillion dollar loss in bond and stock markets repeating 1995 and 2000  and trillion dollar profits in oil, commodity futures investments
US inflation rate at 5.1% in May, with consumer spending up 1%, consumer confidence above 106 ISM at 66 are inflationary, facing inventory built up,  oil, soared to 46 new high, more rate hikes are on its way to cool off the economy. ( despite July wholesale price only up 0.1 %
Global Capital Markets Asset prices tracking, forecasts:
Dr. Huang lectured to 50 European, Asian, Malaysian central banks, banking, finance executives Kuala Lumpur, Sept. 30, 2002 predicted that oil prices soared to 43, Dow Jones retest 7500 Nasdaq 1250, March 2003 on Asian Business Forum.   He lectured Nov. 2003 lectured to Euro-events Singapore http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/ photos 1, 2, 3 lecture ppt  , Shanghai, Beijin Nov. Asian/China finance, capital Markets conferences,  www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm2003   picture  2  and to China economists meeting Fudan University, Shanghai , Dec. over 2000 QFII/QDII executives, identify housing, equities wealth effect bubbles   month ahead, investment opportunities in China petrochemical upstream/downstream, steel, aluminum, telecommunications ADR , Shanghai A and Hong Kong H shares, mutual fund up 80 %  IPO shares up 150 % and early warning for asset bubbles in oil, commodities prices reaching 23  year peak( recommended invested in future, derivatives gained 5000 %) in March 2004, will drive China CPI to 5 %, with steel, cement over-invested 170 % and energy shortage will lead to further credit tightening, accurately predicted China Peoples bank raise bank reserve ratio 0.5 % to 7.5 % open market inter-bank rate (Chibor)must stay above 3.% to remove 110 billion from the capital markets,  US CPI to 5.1 %, core inflation to 2.7 % in the summer , overoptimistic over US economic recovery and job creation,( despite March strong 300,000  new jobs can not sustainable after June quarter tax rebate is over ( June job cretion already down to 32,000) and  inflation outlook may lead to rate hike after May and summer lead to serious bond market plunge (US lose  380 billion dollar, China lose 270 billion) housing bubble repeat 1995 bond market crash and 2000 election bubble and global IT and blue chips banking shares will peaking out in July  facing and correction 2004, Market speculators using Dell 29 % profit gain to push Dell and High tech, and blue chips is premature, Dell will facing pricing cutting from HP in back to school sales and general economic slowdown, Dell stock will plunge below 30, IBM test 80.  Dow will be traded 9550- 9900, Nasdaq  1650- 2000 , Taiwan index post election bubble burst from 7200 to  5000- 5500, Henseng 10500- 12500, Nikkei 10000- 12500, China credit tightening continue. Shanghai A 1300- 1400, Shenzhen 3100- 3450, Euro : 1.18- 1.25 , Yen 105- 110, US, Asian and European stocks  follow US stocks  rebound  in the third quarter 2004 will gave up all this year gain  China and US economic slowdown will drag global economic growth, stocks facing  30-50 % bear market  correction consolidation   

Dr. Huang   return from Asia, lectured to Asian Business Forum's Sept. 30, 2002, Kuala Lumpur to  European, Asian central banks, stock exchanges, banking, securities executives on global nonperformance loan debt, equities, properties  asset prices , credit risk simulation, investment strategy and  Asset Backed Securitization workshops: predicting the unpredictable futures to  minimize bad loan ,shares buy back  procurement ,

 Dr. Huang's two OSA master hands you are in good hands  for global central banks macro-economic control , prices stability and capital market prices simulation, forecasts , value investing strategy, mutual  fund  optimal asset allocation equities, bond, currency investment, portfolio management, wealth management,  risk hedging  tracking/forecasts month ahead  the root causes, onset, spread, recovery of Asian/Global financial crisis, asset bubble bursts lecture to 24 global central bank governors, wealth management, financial market risk management conferences and millions global central banks, banking, finance, corporate CEO, executives on this website  since 1998 ,  over 30 million China, Taiwan, Asian, US , ASEAN, European executives, investors on TV, radio programs and thousands workshops since 1985 predicted 2000- 2003  global IT stocks and mutual fund bubble burst and US global banking, old economy blue chips , Buffet Berkshire, big cap value stocks mutual fund plunged 50- 70 %  July 2001 to Beijin China Peoples Bank executives and on this website and predicted US and global stocks rebound March 2003 Dow Jones rebound from 7300 to 10,000, Nasdaq from 1200 to 2200 Japan Nikkei rebound from 7500 to 12000, , emerging market Taiwan, Russia index almost double and index mutual fund 80 % rebound on Kuala Lumpur Asset Securitization conference to 50 central bank, banking, finance, executives Sep , 2002 again in 2003 to Euro-events Singapore http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/  with excellent feedback photos 1, 2, 3 lecture ppt  , Shanghai, Beijin Nov. Asian/China Finance, Capital Markets conferences,  www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm2003   picture  2  , 2000 QFII, QDII mutual fund managers , identify month ahead, investment opportunities in China ADR Hong Kong H shares, China blue chip petrochemicals, SNP, telecommunication Unicom A shares and value investing China mutual shares up 80 %and  and to China economists meeting Fudan University, Shanghai , Dec. 2003  early warning for asset bubbles in energy, metals commodities prices doubled, reaching 19 year peak, ( invested in future, derivatives gained 5000 %, mutual fund up 80 %) will drive China inflation to 4 %, China Peoples banks further credit tightening, US entering second leg economic recovery due to excessive rate, tax cut , following last year third quarter first leg boom bubble  corporate earning soared 76 % with overheated consumer over 100), investor confidence ( exceeds 1987) and ISM purchaser manager index over 66. while current quarter bubble with business confidence reaching 10 year high, consumer confidence will challenge 100 again, 300,000 new job created, soared consumer demand, housing start, durable orders will continue into third quarter and peaking out , bubble burst  thereafter following rate hike, second quarter bubble  CPI to 2.6 %, core inflation to 1.7 % force Greenspan raise interest rate  in May and  summer , overoptimistic over US economic recovery and job creation, inflation outlook  serious housing bubble will lead to rate hike, despite high unemployment in the election year and global IT and blue chips banking shares and its mutual fund  facing and correction 2004, Dow will be traded 9750- 10500, Nasdaq  1900- 2090 , Taiwan index  6000- 7000, Henseng 12500- 14000, Nikkei 10000- 11500, China credit tightening continue. Shanghai A 1600- 1750, Shenzhen 3500- 4100, Euro : 1.18- 1.29 , Yen 105- 112, US, Asian and European , Canada stocks gave up most of its  this year gain.
Monetary, Economic, Fiscal Policy, oil prices impact on Canada Economy, demand, financial markets Asset prices
Monetary Policy on  inflation, GNP and economic indicators  for sustainable  growth and asset price stability)
OSA simulation  macro-economics:
Inflation rate = F (Money supply growth rate %, Oil prices, Commodity index, Dollar exchange rate)
GNP = F (Money supply growth rate %, Interest Rate, Export Growth Rate)
Property prices = F (Money supply growth rate %, Interest Rate, stock index)
NAPM = F( Consumer spending growth rate %, Interest Rate, stock index)
Business, consumer spending = F( Overnite interest rate, money supply growth, EURO exchange rate)
Stock indices = F( Dow Jones index), Interest rate,  exchange rate
 Wealth Effect = F( money supply, consumer, business spending, interest rate, currency, stock index, housing prices)

Canada central bank   Monetary Policy on  inflation, GNP and economic indicators
Benefited by Asian recovery, soaring  commodities prices  US, EURO demand  for natural resources lumber in housing industry export, Canada economy is fully recovered in 2003 with money supply expanded to 7 %
Canada benefited by soaring oil, lumber prices despite suffered by  SARS resulted Asian slowdown in early 2003, managed 1.6 % GDP growth in second quarter 2003 with 2 % gain in industrial production and retails sales and soaring trade surplus at 35 billion and strong Canadian dollar  lower interest rate and money supply growth at 7 % already causing housing prices soared 10 % , despite manufacturing sectors still in recession since 2002  , inflation at 2.2 % 
 stock index still suffered by telecommunication, fiber optic bubble burst ( Nortel)  up 32 % from it bottom to 7500 will be in  6500- 8500
C $ exchange will be  1.3- 1.4  
Canada Housing prices bubble Simulation /Forecasts:
This equation predicted Australia Housing Bubble Burst Simulation :
Excessive money supply growth at 7 %, low interest rate  at  2.6 % pushed  Canada housing prices up 11 %  since  2002  despite only 2 % GDP growth will facing bubble burst in future interest hike
 
These deterministic, dynamic simulation of last 20 years global asset prices, and economy boom and bust of the asset bubble vicious cycle of excessive monetary policy, low interest rate induced sustained long term bull markets stocks prices gain caused consumer and business spending in real estate properties pushed soaring housing prices and rent. And deficit spending (negative saving) in stock markets, pushed the stock s even higher, until abrupt reverse of consumer and investor confidence --the bubble burst- plunge of stocks and properties prices as it happened in US, Japan, Taiwan in 1980, 1987, 1990, energy crisis, EURO 1992 currency crisis, 1994 China runaway inflation, 1995 Mexico crisis, 1997-98 ASEAN, Japan, Korea, Russia, Brazil currency crisis, all caused by overpriced stock prices due to excess monetary policy and high GDP growth
USA        China      Thailand       Taiwan      Japan      Hong Kong     Korea        Singapore    Indonesia     Canada  Mexico