Goal: Dr. Warren Huang
Nobel prize dream :Dynamic tracking
simulation the root causes, onset, recovery of ASEAN currency crisis, Asian
, South American financial crisis, US, EURO slowdown impact on Brazil macro GNP, inflation,
export, interest rates, currency, stocks, commodity, IT products properties
prices impact on consumer and business spending, to predict, forecast overpriced asset
prices resulted consumers spending imbalance and business profit slump due to central
banks raising interest rates to cool off the economy, leading to bubble burst and abrupt
change in consumer and business confidence caused stock prices plunges with average error
below 1.5 %, correlation constant above 0.95.
Dr. Huang , lectured
on Monetary policy impact on global capital markets
asset prices, bubble early warning, risk management to Euro-events
Asian finance, capital markets conference Nov. 5, 2003, China, finance, capital
market conference, Nov. 25, 2003, Shanghai, Nov. 27, Beijin, 2003 and
China third economic society annual meeting, Beijin China economic research
center at Fudan university, Dec. 20, 2003, and Asian Business
Forum's European, Asian central banks, stock exchanges, banking, securities executives on
global nonperformance loan debt, equities, properties asset prices , credit risk
simulation, investment strategy and Asset Backed Securitization workshops: predicting the
unpredictable futures to minimize bad loan ,shares buy back procurement , investment
costs and credit defaults risks due to corporate scandal and global economic, cycle,
financial crisis integration, interaction impact on interest, currency, industrial demand,
prices, ?the causes, onset, history , recovery of nonperformance asset bubble bursts,
default maximize investment return, auction resell , syndicated loan value recovery,
workshops by thousands proprietary OSA simulation charts supporting daily financial
engineering, structural finance application to Global Capital Markets Asset Management,
Credit defaults risks control on this website
==== Global trillion dollar NPL assets prices simulation, recovery,
prevention workshops,=====
OSA maximize nonperformance debt, equities, property asset performance, value recovery,
pre-warning for future NPL workshops tracking the causes, onset, recovery, prevent of
assets bubble burst for global central banks, banking , insurance, securities, real estate, chips, computer, telecommun- ication, oil, petrochemicals, plastics, fibre CEO, CFO, managers reserve your
in-house workshop email wh3928@yahoo.com
==============================================================================etary
Policy on global stock prices,: Global stock prices and monetary policy impact
on consumer and business spending. Global stock prices, monetary policy impact on housing properties
prices and rent Global stock prices, monetary policy impact on GDP macro-economics
performance. Global stock prices, monetary policy impact on procurement manager index
Global stock prices, monetary policy impact on consumer and business confidence Global
stock prices, monetary policy impact on saving rate. Global stock prices, monetary policy
impact on corporate profit margin Global monetary policy, external shocks( commodities,
currency and credit default) impact on bubble , burst, abrupt change
of consumer, business confidence (Asian crisis, LTCM)
Global Central Banks Monetary Policy for
Sustainable Growth and Asset Prices Stability Guidance and Control: Policy Impact Simulation Workshops
Monetary, Economic, Fiscal Policy, WTO impact
on Global Economic,
Business cycles, Asset, Wealth Prices bubbles burst, oil, energy , Currency crisis,
recession FEED FORWARD SUSTAINABLE GROWTH AND ASSET PRICES STABILITY CONTROL Financial Markets
Return, Asset Allocation, Strategic Risks OSA
(RIGHT HAND )
Structural, Dynamics simulation of Monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on
last 20 years global macro economic, business cycles, capital market asset
prices, bubbles , financial crisis, boom and busts achieving growth and prices
stability control predicted 1- 3 month ahead, Global financial crisis
since 1980 and the root causes, onset, recovery of Asian
Financial Crisis Asian Financial
2000 high tech bubble burst July 2001 in Beijin
that Taiwan index
plunged to 3400, Henseng plug below 9000, facing recession nd 2001-2003 global market
crash and recovery :
Dr. Warren Huang HAS BEEN INVITED TO
SPEAK TO 24 GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS GOVERNORS CONFERENCE ( FRB, ECB, China
Peoples Bank, Taiwan, Japan, Korea, Thailand, Asian ) since 1998 warned that
Global high tech bubble burst will plunge 50-70 % and facing recession. He offered thousands
lectures accurately predicted China Peoples Banks monetary policy impact on
1994-96 macro-economic control-soft landing on China daily stock markets to
China 15 cities 30 million investors, national newspapers during 1994-1998 in
China and again predicted China excessive money supply, housing bubble facing
tightening Mar. 2003
Shanghai workshops
.
USA
Australia
Asian Canada
China
Hong Kong Taiwan
Thailand
Japan S.
Korea
Singapore
Malaysia
Phillipines
Indonesia
Viet-Nan
India UK/EURO
Russia/E. Europe
Mexico
Argentina
Brazil
Dr.
Warren Huang accurately predicted 1998 summer on
www.osawh.com and Rome speech that the
falling oil, commodity prices and strong dollar will lead to US cut interest
rates , to allowed South American, Asian countries cut interest rate to pre-crisis
level, stock rebound strongly lead to increased Thailand and Asian export growth,
consumer demand, recovery.
Dr. Huang also accurately predicted on 1999 May Macao central banks governor conference
that US Fed will raise fund rate in June due to soaring stocks, properties, oil
prices, which will take US stocks and Asian stock prices into minimum 15 % correction, and
some internet stock with 50-90 % corrections, Dow Jones will test 9000, Nasdaq test
1600, Henseng test 10000, Nikkei test 12,000, Bangkok index down to 300, Taiwan index down
to 4500 with asset bubble simulation models on Macao's central
bank governors conference, Taipei's Pacific Basin finance conference and Washington DC NASD conferences. during April and May 1999.
He also predicted in June 1999 in Barcelona on European Financial Management conference
that Argentina PESO peg to the dollar will facing currency crisis in the next recession.
and will drag Brazil into crisis again. It did in 2001 -2002 recession Peso depreciated
from 1 to 3.7, Brazil facing 265 billion dollar default, Real depreciated from 2.2 to 3.5,
stock plunged 16000 to 9000 in Dow Jones crash crash ,March 2003
IMF 30 billion dollar give little boost in confidence , however help little in global
slowdown, and Argentina crisis., despite stock soared to 10,000, currency
stabilized, It
still need more time in consolidation.
US rate and tax cuts , weak dollar boost US GDP growth 8.3 % third quarter , US
and South American stocks.
Brazil OSA:
Monetary Policy on inflation, GNP and economic indicators for sustainable growth and
asset price stability)
OSA simulation
macro-economics:
Inflation rate = F (Money supply growth rate %, Oil prices, Commodity index, Dollar exchange rate)
GNP = F (Money supply growth rate %, Interest Rate, Export Growth Rate)
Property prices = F (Money supply growth rate %, Interest Rate, stock index)
NAPM = F( Consumer spending growth rate %, Interest Rate, stock index)
Business, consumer spending = F( Overnite interest rate, money supply
growth, EURO exchange rate)
Stock indices = F( Dow Jones index), Interest rate,
exchange rate
Although Brazil was benefited by strong global demand lead to
rebound in commodity and coffee prices boost it's export (due to Brazil depreciation
from 1.1 to 1.9) and strong stock market rebound from 5100 to 11250 related
wealth effect. in 2000 However The soaring oil, raw material prices and strong
domestic demand lead to soaring imports, lead to widening trade and current
account deficit and declining foreign reserve 28 billion as in South
American Financial Crisis. Inflation soared to 16 % which put
pressure on currency depreciation from 1.83 to
3.50. It raising interest rate to
26 % US interest rate hike resulted
recession and Argentina crisis cooloff the overheated stocks,
stock index between 7000- 11000, despite IMF 30 billion aid
manufacturing production index : facing
decline due to high interest rate, US , Asia, EURO slowdown and Argentina problem,
However, US economic recovery US rate and tax cuts , weak dollar
boost US GDP growth 8.3 % third quarter , US and South American stocks.
Export : , Brazil is benefited by weak US dollar
pushed soybean prices doubled from 400 to 900,coffe from 40 to 63 benefited by Real currency depreciation will boost the export and trade surplus
Import : stabilized due to rising oil, raw material import prices, Real and falling interest
rates
Trade deficit trade surplus soared
to 23 billion due to
export boost
Currency rebound to 2.50-3.0 due to widening trade surplus and current account improvement , and rising inflation
stock index : ,follow Dow
soaring to 20000- 25000, need consolidation
Inflation still high at 10 %,
Interest rate : 15 % to support Real currency
GDP growth rate %: facing
recession return to growth soon
These deterministic, dynamic simulation of last 20 years global asset prices, and economy
boom and bust of the asset bubble vicious cycle of excessive monetary policy, low interest
rate induced sustained long term bull markets stocks prices gain caused consumer and
business spending in real estate properties pushed soaring housing prices and rent. And
deficit spending (negative saving) in stock markets, pushed the stock s even higher, until
abrupt reverse of consumer and investor confidence --the bubble burst- plunge of stocks
and properties prices as it happened in US, Japan, Taiwan in 1980, 1987, 1990, energy
crisis, EURO 1992 currency crisis, 1994 China runaway inflation, 1995 Mexico crisis,
1997-98 ASEAN, Japan, Korea, Russia, Brazil currency crisis, all caused by overpriced
stock prices due to excess monetary policy and high GDP growth