Australia Monetary Policy and Asset Prices Bubble Simulation and , oil prices Impact on Macroeconomic, money, currency, stocks, bond , properties Markets bubble bursts  Risks Operations Simulation Analysis
  Monetary policy Impact on  Asian Financial Crisis, Recovery  by Dr. Warren Huang        
  (Right master hand)

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Trillion dollar Nonperformance   assets Management, workshops,   sponsored by Peking Univeristy? Guahua School of Management, Executive Develpment Beijin zhoucs@gsm.pku.edu.cn
  OSA maximize nonperformance asset cost performance, value recovery, pre-warning for future NPL workshops in December in Asia  tracking the causes, onset, recovery, prevent of your   debt, equities, properties nonperformance  asset  email wh3928@yahoo.com for  your in-house workshop reservation
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Dr. Huang   return from Asia, lectured to Asian Business Forum's Sept. 30, 2002, Kuala Lumpur to  European, Asian central banks, stock exchanges, banking, securities executives on global nonperformance loan debt, equities, properties  asset prices , credit risk simulation, investment strategy and  Asset Backed Securitization workshops: predicting the unpredictable futures to  minimize bad loan ,shares buy back  procurement ,

 Dr. Huang's two OSA master hands you are in good hands for global central banks macro-economic control , prices stability and capital market prices simulation, forecasts , value investing strategy, wealth management,  risk hedging  tracking/forecasts month ahead  the root causes, onset, spread, recovery of Asian/Global financial crisis, asset bubble bursts lecture to 24 global central bank governors, wealth management, financial market risk management conferences and millions global central banks, banking, finance, corporate CEO, executives on this website  since 1998 ,  over 30 million China, Taiwan, Asian, US , ASEAN, European executives, investors on TV, radio programs and thousands workshops since 1985 and again in 2003 to Euro-events Singapore http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/  with excellent feedback photos 1, 2, 3 lecture ppt  , Shanghai, Beijin Nov. Asian/China Finance, Capital Markets conferences,  www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm2003 he was excellently received  picture  2  and to China economists meeting Fudan University, Shanghai , Dec. over 2000 QFII/QDII executives, identify month ahead, investment opportunities in China ADR Hong Kong H shares, China A shares and early warning for asset bubbles in commodities prices reaching 19 year peak, will drive US CPI to 2.6 %, core inflation to 1.7 % in the summer , overoptimistic over US economic recovery and job creation,( despite March strong 300,000  new jobs can not sustainable after June quarter tax rebate is over and  inflation outlook may lead to rate hike after May lead to serious housing bubble repeat 2000 election bubble and global IT and blue chips banking shares will peaking out in July  facing and correction 2004, Dow will be traded 10200- 10900, Nasdaq  1950- 2150 , Taiwan index  6000- 7000, Henseng 12500- 14000, Nikkei 10000- 11900, China credit tightening continue. Shanghai A 1600- 1790, Shenzhen 3700- 4250, Euro : 1.18- 1.25 , Yen 102- 110, US, Asian and European stocks gave up all this year gain and follow US stocks  rebound to new high in the second quarter 2004.

Monetary, Economic, Fiscal Policy, oil prices impact on Australia Economy, demand, financial markets prices
  Monetary Policy on  inflation, GNP and economic indicators  for sustainable  growth and asset price stability)
OSA simulation  macro-economics:
Inflation rate = F (Money supply growth rate %, Oil prices, Commodity index, Dollar exchange rate)
GNP = F (Money supply growth rate %, Interest Rate, Export Growth Rate)
Property prices = F (Money supply growth rate %, Interest Rate, stock index)
NAPM = F( Consumer spending growth rate %, Interest Rate, stock index)
Business, consumer spending = F( Overnite interest rate, money supply growth, EURO exchange rate)
Stock indices = F( Dow Jones index), Interest rate,  exchange rate)
Australia central bank   Monetary Policy on  inflation, GNP and economic indicators
Benefited by Asian recovery, soaring  commodities prices  US, EURO demand  for natural resources export, Australia economy is fully recovered in 2000, with money supply growth doubled from it's crisis level,  from bubble burst in  1997-98 Asian Crisis, with GDP growth 8 %,
Australia suffered by soaring oil prices SARS resulted Asian slowdown in early 2003 resulted falling industrial production and mounting trade and current deficit, rising commodity prices supported  2 % GDP growth with excessive money supply growth of 13 % lower interest rate already causing housing prices soared 18 % , inflation at 2.8 % 
 stock index soared from bottom of 3100 to  3200 will be in 3250-3500
A $ exchange will be  1.35- 1.41  
Australia Housing prices bubble Simulation /Forecasts:
This equation predicted Australia Housing Bubble Burst Simulation :
Excessive money supply growth at 13 %, low interest rate  at 4.8 %pushed Australia housing prices up 19 % in 2002 and 18 % in 2003 among the top gainers, despite only 2 % GDP growth will facing bubble burst , plunge 30 % in future interest hike
 
These deterministic, dynamic simulation of last 20 years global asset prices, and economy boom and bust of the asset bubble vicious cycle of excessive monetary policy, low interest rate induced sustained long term bull markets stocks prices gain caused consumer and business spending in real estate properties pushed soaring housing prices and rent. And deficit spending (negative saving) in stock markets, pushed the stock s even higher, until abrupt reverse of consumer and investor confidence --the bubble burst- plunge of stocks and properties prices as it happened in US, Japan, Taiwan in 1980, 1987, 1990, energy crisis, EURO 1992 currency crisis, 1994 China runaway inflation, 1995 Mexico crisis, 1997-98 ASEAN, Japan, Korea, Russia, Brazil currency crisis, all caused by overpriced stock prices due to excess monetary policy and high GDP growth
USA        China      Thailand       Taiwan      Japan      Hong Kong     Korea        Singapore    Indonesia     Canada  Mexico