osawh    OSA  Asian Proactive  Optimal Monetary , Economic, Fiscal, WTO Policy Proactive  Impact Simulation
  中文 Chinese
Asian Central Banks Optimal Monetary Policy Trilemma ( Inflation asset bubble, Capital Market, Currency) Problem Solution:
Achieving sustainable economic, capital market growth and currency, CPI prices stability without asset  prices bubbles by Proactive Structural Dynamic Optimal monetary, economic, fiscal, trade policy , capital markets integration, Operation Simulation Analysis ( OSA ): (workshops ) Chinese (中文)
Asian Central Banks Optimal Monetary, Economic, Fiscal , WTO  policy trilemma impact on Macroeconomic Control, Capital Markets  housing, equities asset price, Curency,  Capital Markets Bubble Simulation,   early warning Asian housing price bubble simulation : China Strategic Investment   Strategic fund, wealth management  Shanghai/Shenzhen A/B/IPO  China small cap   ADR   mutual fund/ commodity/ bond  Hong Kong  blue chips H  Red Chips  NPL Asset Management  QFII/QDII strategy Supply Chain Logistics  Housing Bubble WTO import/ export pricing    QFII/QDII  strategy Supply Chain   
Thousands proactive, structural dynamic Operations Simulations Analysis Identification years, month ahead of  the causes, onset, recovery, early warning of last 20 years global energy, financial, currency, housing, stock market  prices bubbles burst, economic recession cycles     中文 (Chinese)
 30 years global financial , currency, asset bubble burst financial crisis simulation indicating that high GDP, Capital Markets and Housing Markets Growth, free float/peg  currency are not, should and can not  be sustainable and it is  inflationary, will  repeating eventual financial crisis, asset bubbles burst with or without central bank macro-economical control,  even inflation stay below 3 %. Only these integrated proactive structural economic systems n achieve GDP, capital markets growth, currency, price  stability
The What, Why, How and  timing  in  central banking Optimal Predictive Monetary Policy: Integrated Macro economic Control, imbalance, Systemic Risks, Impact on  20 industrial sectors demand, supply, prices   and Capital markets Asset Prices market forces mechanism and Stress Testing Early Warning System achieve Sustainable Growth and Prices Stability
Dr. Warren Huang, pioneer of proactive monetary policy presented to China Peoples bank governor sponsored Asian central bank governors, US Fed Chicago, Ohio governor, ECB, UK, Taiwan  24 global central bank governors policy and risks management conferences  
Thousand proactive structural proprietary models tracking , forecasts year, month ahead last 20 years Monetary, Economic, Fiscal Policy Impact on US, Asian, European, South American, Russia  macro economics inflation, GDP, consumer spending indicators, financial economic interest rates, currency, capital markets  prices, industrial economic supply, demand, commodities prices mechanisms, trade economics import/export pricing Integration, Interaction for root causes, onset, recovery and early warning and prevention of NPL of global financial, currency , energy, asst price bubble crisis. presented to 20 global central bank governors , financial risks management conferences since 1998.  
by OSA pioneer Dr. Warren Huang who pioneer OSA proactive, structural oil, energy, downstream products prices simulation, patented, published on US Oil& Gas Journal 1983, Hydrocarbon Processing information systems handbook 1991-2005, millions copies circulated to 78 countries
He directed 1000 senior, graduate global strategic management and industrial economic students developed the integrated global economics and capital market systems out of last 20 years IMF monthly statistics and global  economics and capital markets data, implemented for Taiwan 300, 000 import/exporter members daily 100 countries currency, 5000 energy, commodities, and products import/export strategy, and US, China, Taiwan 15 cites 30 million TV, radio HNW, institutional investors, offered thousands global strategic investment workshops for global energy, banking finance CEO, executives from 78 countries

Integrating macroeconomic control,  inflation, financial economic  interest rates, currency,  20 industrial sectors economics demand, supply, prices markets forces mechanism and WTO global trade economics into  daily global macro, financial, industrial, trade economic activities and its interactions

Optimal Trilemma solution by Proactive Structural Dynamics Global Economic Systems Simulation, Integration OSA
tracking monetary, economic, fiscal, WTO policy impact on

Macroeconomic OSA    Financial Economics OSA   Industrial Economics OSA      Trade Economics OSA
inflation, GDP,                  Capital Market prices        industrial sectors demand        commodity ,products
unemployment                  Currency, interest rates    supply, commodity, asset        import/export prices
consumer spending                                                 prices bubble mechanism        global currency prices
=======================================================================================
Global Economic and Monetary Policy Interaction, integration OSA
USA     Asian   China   Hong Kong   Taiwan    Thailand   Japan  S. Korea   Singapore  Malaysia  Phillipines  Indonesia   Viet-Nan   India    Mexico   Argentina  Brazil   UK/EURO  Russia/E. Europe   

How China's Greenspan China Peoples Bank governor Zhou and State department premier Wen
two master hands controlling monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on macroeconomic control and Wen's  housing sectors control
China/Global Strategic Management -Neuro-economic  OSA  models forecasts, mission control help central banks stay ahead of inflation, asset bubbles macro-economic cycles control,, forecast the cause, onset, recovery of  China, global capital markets
OSA asset prices, financial crisis, Basel II credit, market, interest rate, liquidity risks. capitalize investment  opportunities, avoid trillion dollar  market  loss, achieve sustainable profit   
 www.osawh.com     About OSA   Products & Services    Nobel Prize dream    book your full day workshops
US/China central  banks neutral  interest rate or inflation targeting   all fail to achieve sustainable growth and prices stability due to  Current US/China monetary policy, macroeconomic control policy still based on 30 year old US Friedman monetary economics theory using feedback control, based on lagging distorted  core inflation( exclude food and energy or distorted energy prices) to set  interbank rate, fail to predict  its its impact on currency, stock, commodities, housing, asset and its downstream products market prices and its impact on CPI and core inflation". resulted  excessive money supply growth in 2003, consumer, business demand, wealth effect speculation since then overheating ahead of asset bubble and in CPI inflation. leading to doing too little, too late in fighting potential inflation and soaring housing construction material asset bubbles.
China's industrial sectors and regional economic  policy  structural solution have been very successful in fighting the overheated housing, construction materials bubbles in 2004 to bring down its money supply growth from 24 % to 14% and inflation from 5.5 % to 1.4 %,  However speculative bubbles and inflation worry still exist as excessive fixed investment and consumer spending supported demand and pricing pressure as China gradually moving natural resources pricing mechanism reform, China natural gas prices up 100-150 yuan and  lift  coal, electricity pricing intervention  already driving May fuel prices up 14 % and soaring oil prices, housing bubbles, 30 % growth in fixed investment  led to China Peoples Bank raise lending rate to 5.85 % Apr. 28, and housing industry credit tightening June  2006

While Dr. Warren Huang's 35 years development, implementation of thousands proactive structural dynamic global monetary, macroeconomic, asset prices simulators have been able to tracking, simulate forecast months, years ahead of last 25 years misguided policy resulted 1980, 1990, 2000, 2005 soaring oil prices, energy energy crisis , stock, commodity, housing asset bubbles, China 1994 run away inflation offered thousands lectures to China Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Wuhan, Guanzhou, Taipei, US San Francisco 15 cities TV, radio investors, traders, hundred  banking finance companies CEO, fund managers, executives, predicted 1994- 1998 macro economic control, softland, and   Asian  currency crisis, results have been presented to 21 US, EURO, China, Asian central banks governors monetary policy for sustainable growth and prices stability and global financial crisis risk management conferences and his website www.osawh.com  (visited by 82 countries central banks, banking, finance, enterprises, universities since 1998.
He predicted  in 2003 that US facing housing and construction materials asset bubble deflation/burst again with 4 % inflation, due to excessive rates tax cuts,  rate cuts, money supply growth resulted excessive consumer,  business demand, stock market and housing markets speculation resulted bubble and 50 trillion dollar wealth effect , despite Greenspan 13 rate hikes and overoptimistic on inflationary and oil prices outlook using lagging, distorted  " core inflation "  following same mistakes in the last 20 years boom and bust.  GDP growth can no longer sustainable in current overheated bubble. Fed maintaining inflation is contained and oil prices will drop in the past 13 rate  hikes, encouraging housing and stock market wealth effect resulted speculation. 
Dr. Warren Huang predicted  to Asian Business Forum's Beijin workshop to  ExxonMobil, ARAMCO , Merril Lynch, HSBC, VP, Phillips Petroleum CEO, 100 multinational oil, banking CEO, executives in Beijin Feb and  Nov. 2005, that Green and Bernanke under estimate wealth effect resulted asst bubbles impact on oil prices and  inflation and  oil prices will be soar to 69 in summer 2005, metal prices to new high in January 2006 and oil prices will hit 80 in summer 2006,  US, CPI to 4.3 % in summer   will raise  rates throughout  summer 2006.,  Fed fund rate will go to 5.5 %  , China raised lending rate Apr. 28 to 5.85 %   gasoline futures will  to 265, stocks,, bond facing correction  give up all2005- 2006 gain ahead. Dow Jones, 10000- 11200, Nasdaq 2000- 2220, S&P 1150-1290 
 
 US/China 2003- 2005 macroeconomic, inflation control  tracking, 2005 forecasts:
Dr. Huang spoke to Euro-events Singapore , Shanghai, Beijin Nov.  2003  Asian/China Finance, Capital Markets conferences lecture to 2000 QFII, QDII mutual fund managers and  China Economist annual meeting Dec. 20 and San Francisco Silicon Valley finance radio and global finance investment seminar May7,  8, 15,2004 and   www.osawh.com   website  warning  global central banks excessive rate, tax cuts, ignoring Dr. Huang's warning on www.osawh.com  website and global conferences, underestimated global economic recovery resulted inflation,  excessive demand for housing, manufacturing, auto pushed oil, metal constructional materials prices to new high and rising cost, prices to 5000 upstream /downstream raw materials, products (core inflation) due to US  excessive money supply growth, rate, tax cuts, Fed raising rate , too little, too late , China delaying  rate hike to effectively cut market demand led to China Sept.  2004 CPI inflation up 5.2 % again 2005 GDP growth still at 9.4 % due to increasing   business ( up 22 %)and consumer demand up 14 % Despite China Oct 2005 CPI dropped to 1.2% due to distorted energy, asset prices. China still facing inflationary pressure (not deflation) as China soon will facing resources (coal, oil, water, electricity market forces prices mechanism reform reflecting rising oil prices impact on resources.  
 US Greenspan, global economists,  market analysts over optimistic  over oil, commodity weakness and underestimate inflationary pressure  and 10 yr. bond yield too low , long interest rate has to go up to 5 % in the month ahead due to excessive business and consumer spending twin growth engine will drive second half 2004  and 2005 economic recovery, profit growth, bull market rally, Oct job creation of 337000, will repeating March ,, 2004 , 2005 growth will be below 112,000 , peaking out as entering peak holiday season,  underestimated on the impact of US dollar depreciation, excessive rate, tax cuts , 48 trillion dollar  housing, equities wealth effect resulted excessive consumer, business demand, NAPM peaking out in the second quarter at 66 ( already plunged to 56 as predicted ) driving soaring oil, commodities, metals asset prices bubble reaching 23 year high in March, May  and extending into the rest of  2004 and repeating in 2005 with  US trade deficit soared to  55- 60  billion and inflation, facing credit tightening, rate hikes after May, Aug. Sept , Nov 2004 and extending well into summer 2005, profit , productivity growth , consumer confidence , business spending,  peaking out,  economic leading indicators declined for 6 months ,business  facing profit  squeeze in  second half  2004, China and US, Global stocks bull markets are over, entering bear market consolidation.   US High tech, finance, housing, retails, auto share will give up  all its 2004 gain plunge  30-50 % and  trillion dollar loss in bond and stock markets repeating 1995 and 2000  and trillion dollar profits in oil, commodity futures investments
. Huang  pioneered two master hands thousands structural dynamic proactive quantitative models  accurately predicted last 20 years global economy and daily capital market asset prices , presented to 24 global central bank governors, risk management conferences , He predicted again  2003 Nov. 2003 to Euro-events Singapore http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/  with photos 1, 2, 3 lecture  ppt  , Shanghai, Beijin Nov. Asian/China Finance, Capital Markets conferences,  www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm2003   picture  2  to 2000 QFII, QDII mutual fund managers, identify month ahead, investment opportunities in China ADR Hong Kong H shares, China A  blue chip petrochemicals, SNP, telecommunication Unicom A shares and value investing China mutual shares up 80 %and  and to China economists meeting Fudan University, Shanghai , Dec. 2003  early warning for 2004 asset bubbles in energy, metals commodities prices doubled, reaching 23 year peak, ( invested in future, derivatives gained 5000 %, mutual fund up 80 %) will drive China inflation to 4 %, China Peoples banks further credit tightening and rate hike( raised deposit ratio to 7.5 % Apr. 25, 2004, Oct. 0.27 % and more )will drive 2005 GDP to 7.5 %  despite 2004 GDP of 9.1%
Daily Opening Market Operations Impact on Macro- economic control, Financial, industrial sectors Capital Markets Asset Prices, Wealth effect, Bubbles  Early Warning Risks OSA (Operations Simulation Analysis) Forecasts
 
Special announcement: As of March,  2005,  www.osaglobalstrategicmanagement.com/resources2.html 
 and www.osaglobalstrategicmanagement.com/oilgas.html   through its proactive structural dynamic OSA forecast provide weekly/monthly forecast, update, it accurately predicted Oil price soared to 60, 

and  www.osaglobalstrategicmanagement.com/Chinastock.html       through its proactive structural dynamic OSA forecast provide weekly/monthly China stocks, fund forecast, update
 Do not miss Dr. Warren Huang Lecture on

Strategic Basel II Risks OSA early warning maximize risks adjusted return

for   Basel II Capital Requirement, Risk Management conference sponsored by Asian Strategy Leadership Institute, Singapore, Apr. 25-26 for China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Japan, Korea, ASEAN countries banking, finance senior risks, planning management, fund managers ( Dr. Huang offered thousands lectures to China, Taiwan, US TV, radio station 30 million investors, hundreds risk management workshops for hundreds banking, finance CEO, CFO , fund managers.
or reserve his full day in-house workshop email  wh3928@yahoo.com/ osawhh@sina.com
 in- house workshop Apr. 20- 23,  or Apr. 28-30 at your office
( he just offered on Feb 23 , Beijing to 70 China, Asian, US, European oil, gas, banking executives accurately:
Speaker Dr. Warren Huang accurately predicted on his Beijing Feb 23-25 workshop, keynote speeches, lectures that oil price will rise to 55 in March. and challenging 60 in spring, driving US China inflation and interest rate , bond yield up, stocks plunge.  soaring US trade deficit drag dollar and Oil price did soared to 55.2 on March 3, 58 on March 15, China Shanghai A retreat from 1320 to 1239, US Dow ones plunge from 10980 to 10359, Nasdaq from 2100 to 1970, 10 yr bond yield soared from 4 % to 4.6 %..

GS  after Dr. Huang prediction in April 5, speculation to 105 is based on feeling,  without market forces simulation Greenspan trying use market forces to cool down the prices to 56 is just co-incident.
based on Dr. Huang 30 year oil market market forces simulation tracing accurately daily prices movement since 1980, 1990 energy crisis, Greenspan only right about rising price cut demand, but forgot the  prime demand market forces from 49 trillion wealth effect out of housing, equities bubbles and weak dollar continue driving energy demand from construction metal, cement plastics 20 industrial sectors 5000 products etc beside just gasoline, heating oils.
Soaring Feb consumer spending, manufacturing demand definitely push oil price above 60, despite sufficient crude oil inventory, ( can easily consumed in the coming peak gasoline demand season ahead


Highlights:
* Structural dynamic simulation forecast of monetary, economic policy impact on daily global finance, capital markets asset prices Operation Simulation Analysis (OSA) avoided trillion dollar markets non-performance loan.
* Basel II Markets, Credit, Operational, interest rate, currency risks OSA forecast, risks early warning systems
* Corporate cost and financial accounting systems OSA tracking, governance scandal early warning, maximize
 transparency and performance.
*Cost, Profit, Risks, Market Shares as goal, mission, performance oriented  strategic (board members, senior executive , risk manager, auditing team) and execution ( junior executives, risk staff ) OSA teams tracking daily corporate performance and risks, maximize risk adjusted return
* Global/Asian equities, bond, oil, metals, commodity futures, derivatives prices, assets and mortgage backed securitization asset prices simulation, forecast, structural finance risks hedging OSA. minimize  Basel II  market risks.
* Risks OSA forecast , early warning, tracking, forecasts daily Basel II three pillars risk management requirement, minimize  capital adequacy  requirement in daily risks monitoring, reporting, measurement.
cost:  Dr. Huang San Francisco rt air fare, local hotel, lecture fee.

OSA Global Strategic Simulation/Forecasts, Your most powerful daily predictive decision tools--
Predicted  3 months ahead last 20 years global currency, 1980, 90, 2000 energy , financial crisis , 1994-96 and current China macro-economic control, soft-landing, 2000 US IT bubble bursts, 2001 recession and rate cut, current rate hikes...
5 Day Global Interest Rates, Bond Yield, Oil, Gold, Metals, Downstream Stocks, Currency Futures, Option Prices Mechanism Simulation  2005 Forecast Workshop
5 Day Global Interest Rates, Bond Yield, Stock Indices, Currency Futures, Option Prices Mechanism Simulation , Index, Debt Fund Asset Allocation Strategy  2005 Forecast Workshop
 30 years helping 78 countries multinationals oils and downstream fighting soaring oil, feedstock cost, maximizing sustainable profits and market shares.
===============================================================================================
Announcement  :OSA  country web pages assistant editor and marketing opportunities 
OSA will expand 40 countries web pages content in local language and English domain  in 2005, looking for
A.Assistant editors for all areas, current college student of all majors, interested to be training by our e-Learning mission
 impossible, develop  your country information knowledge base, web contents, you will be co-author with Dr. Huang to present your results in local , international conferences, for future graduate  scholarship, job applications reference.
B. Marketing agent: Local country web pages, domain, boosting traffic and workshops marketing, some experience required         Contact  osawhh@citiz.net  in  Chinese  wh3928@yahoo.com  in English
=================================================================================================

China Strategy: China government, business, banking, finance strategy
 Macroeconomic Control, Capital Markets  asset price, Capital Markets Bubble Simulation, early warning  early warning and sustainable profit, market shares growth strategy  :
 Monetary policy impact on macroeconomic control, Asset Prices, Bubble Simulation, early warning  :
 Shanghai/Shenzhen A/B/IPO China small cap  ADR   mutual fund/ commodity/ bond  Hong Kong H  Red Chips  NPL Asset Management  QFII/QDII strategy Supply Chain Logistics  Housing Bubble WTO import/ export pricing 
Strategic OSA maximize China oil/petrochemical upstream/downstream profit workshops ( Beijin workshopThe only and most reliable structural dynamic deterministic decision simulators tracking, forecasts months ahead last 20 years global economic, financial crisis, asset bubble, and daily capital market asset  ( interest rate, currency, commodity, equities, stocks, bond futures, derivatives ) prices market forces mechanism, avoided trillion dollar market loss due to current probabilistic models based capital market asset prices and risks models ( CAPM ), presented to US, European, China, Taiwan , Asian central bank governors, financial risks and wealth  management conference

Thousands   causes and effect structural, dynamic proven predictive OSA simulators beat  daily money, capital, insurance, property markets ( published thousands articles, 30 million copies ( over 10 million readers ) for reliable tracking, forecasts 3 month ahead of last 20 years  central banks monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on global/China economy, daily capital market asset prices, bubble early warning, tailor to QFII/QDII  investment needs.  =======================================================================================
first time  shown on this website the  most reliable  global stock indices , currency , wealth management OSA simulation charts 
OSA Simulation Charts tracking forecasts 1-3 month ahead monetary policy on last 20 years daily
A. Consumer spending, Fed Fund rate, Dollar exchange rate impact on Dow Jones Index
B. Japan money supply growth, Yen exchange rate, Dow Jones impact on Tokyo Nikkei index
C. EU  money supply growth, EURO exchange rate, Dow Jones impact on German DAX index
D. Hong Kong money supply growth, interbank rate, Dow Jones impact on Henseng index have E.  US and EURO trade deficit/surplus, interest rate spread impact on EURO exchange rate
F. US and  Japan trade deficit/surplus, interest rate spread impact on  YEN  exchange rate
  by Dr. Warren Huang  June 2004
Global Economy and Financial Markets Asset Prices Mechanism, Basel II risks causes models  Simulation /Forecasts

 Dr. Huang  two OSA master hands  controlling global economy, financial market prices , wrote thousands articles, and presented to 100 global central banks governors, financial risks management conference , accurately predicted month ahead on 1980, 1990, energy crisis, 1992 Euroepan currency crisis, 1994- 96 China macro-economic control,  soft-landing, 1997 Asian Financial crisis, 1998 LTCM, Russia currency crisis, 2000 IT bubble burst.
  Dr. Warren Huang CV pioneered   thousand structural dynamic simulators  helping US, Taiwan, China, Singapore, Asian countries 30 years strategic knowledge economy and market economic market forces prices mechanism simulation forecasts maximize macroeconomic controls, R&D innovation global competitiveness
He.  accurately predicted  Nov. 5, 2003 in Singapore ,Shanghai Euro-events conferencesSingapore http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/ photos 1, 2, 3 lecture ppt  , Shanghai, Beijin Nov. 2003  Asian/China finance, capital Markets conferences,  www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm   picture  2  and to China economists meeting Fudan University, Shanghai , Dec. 2003 over 2000 QFII/QDII executives, May 8, 15, 2004 to US Silicon Valley investors, radio station , and  www.osawh.com website that excessive rate and tax cuts resulted manufacturing and consumer demand pushing US Oil prices  soared above 50, metals  prices reaching 23 year high drive 5000 downstream products prices and inflation up, will follow economic recovery in the second half of  2004 and not transitory .  weak dollar due  to soaring trade deficit, ( 55.3 billion  for June, 50 for July ) will drive  inflation up 5 %, bond market slump in May till the end of 2004  job creation, productivity, profit growth peaking out  in the second quarter 2004 Fed June, Aug  , Sept 0.25 % rate hikes China credit tightening, will follow US rate hike in 2004, global economy facing inflationary slowdown ( second half US GDP below 3 %) and followed by stagflation next year with  stocks entering bear market consolidation, with 30- 50 % correction Global IPO  will facing 30-50 % correction  as Google will  plunged from 185 to 60-80, any attempt using IPO to speculate market rebound will be followed by sell off bear trap , avoided trillion dollar bond, equities, derivative market loss made trillion dollar oil, commodity derivatives market profit.
 
US macroeconomic, inflation control  tracking, 2005 forecasts:
Dr. Huang spoke to Euro-events Singapore , Shanghai, Beijin Nov.  2003  Asian/China Finance, Capital Markets conferences lecture to 2000 QFII, QDII mutual fund managers and  China Economist annual meeting Dec. 20 and San Francisco Silicon Valley finance radio and global finance investment seminar May7,  8, 15,2004 and   www.osawh.com   website  warning  global central banks excessive rate, tax cuts, ignoring Dr. Huang's warning on this website and global conferences, underestimated global economic recovery resulted inflation,  excessive demand for housing, manufacturing, auto pushed oil, metal constructional materials prices to new high and rising cost, prices to 5000 upstream /downstream raw materials, products  due to US  excessive rate, tax cuts, Fed raising rate , too little, too late , China delaying  rate hike to effectively cut market demand led to China Sept.  2004 CPI inflation up 5.2 % again and third quarter GDP growth still at 9.1 % due to increasing   business ( up 28 %)and consumer demand up 14 % ,will facing soaring inflation  from current 5.3 % to 6.6 %, US will facing inflation soared to 5 % in winter peaking holiday demand season .  US Greenspan, global economists,  market analysts over optimistic  over oil, commodity weakness and underestimate inflationary pressure  and 10 yr. bond yield too low , long interest rate has to go up to 5 % in the month ahead due to excessive business and consumer spending twin growth engine will drive second half 2004  and 2005 economic recovery, profit growth, bull market rally, Oct job creation of 337000, will repeating March ,, 2004 , 2005 growth will be below 112,000 , peaking out as entering peak holiday season,  underestimated on the impact of US dollar depreciation, excessive rate, tax cuts , 48 trillion dollar  housing, equities wealth effect resulted excessive consumer, business demand, NAPM peaking out in the second quarter at 66 ( already plunged to 56 as predicted ) driving soaring oil, commodities, metals asset prices bubble reaching 23 year high in March, May  and extending into the rest of  2004 and repeating in 2005 with  US trade deficit soared to  55- 60  billion and inflation, facing credit tightening, rate hikes after May, Aug. Sept , Nov 2004 and extending well into summer 2005, profit , productivity growth , consumer confidence , business spending,  peaking out,  economic leading indicators declined for 6 months ,business  facing profit  squeeze in  second half  2004, China and US, Global stocks bull markets are over, entering bear market consolidation.   US High tech, finance, housing, retails, auto share will give up  all its 2004 gain plunge  30-50 % and  trillion dollar loss in bond and stock markets repeating 1995 and 2000  and trillion dollar profits in oil, commodity futures investments
US inflation rate at  3.2 % in 2004, with business  spending up 14 %, consumer confidence above 100 ISM at 66 are inflationary, facing excessive inventory built up,  oil, soared to 56 currently consolidate in 47-50  cold winter will drive heating oil,  and oil price rebound to 55-60  gas to 9.0 and metals to  new high  in summer 2005  will drive up 20 sectors 5000 products costs and prices, inflation will be back to 3.5 % in spring, more rate hikes are on its way to cool off the economy, 10 year bond yield is too low, will return to 4.3- 5.0 %
Wall Street Market Research OSA Market Tracking, Forecasts: Global Capital Markets Asset prices tracking, forecasts:
Dr. Huang lectured to 50 European, Asian, Malaysian central banks, banking, finance executives Kuala Lumpur, Sept. 30, 2002 predicted that oil prices soared to 43, Dow Jones retest 7500 Nasdaq 1250, March 2003 on Asian Business Forum.   He lectured Nov. 2003 lectured to Euro-events Singapore http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/ photos 1, 2, 3 lecture ppt  , Shanghai, Beijin Nov. Asian/China finance, capital Markets conferences,  www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm2003   picture  2  and to China economists meeting Fudan University, Shanghai , Dec. over 2000 QFII/QDII executives, identify housing, equities wealth effect bubbles   month ahead, investment opportunities in China petrochemical upstream/downstream, steel, aluminum, telecommunications ADR , Shanghai A and Hong Kong H shares, mutual fund up 80 %  IPO shares up 150 % and early warning for asset bubbles in oil, commodities prices reaching 23  year peak( recommended invested in future, derivatives gained 5000 %) in March 2004, will drive China CPI to 5 %, with steel, cement over-invested 170 % and energy shortage will lead to further credit tightening, accurately predicted China Peoples bank raise bank reserve ratio 0.5 % to 7.5 % open market inter-bank rate (Chibor)must stay above 3.% to remove 110 billion from the capital markets,  US CPI to 5.1 %, core inflation to 2.7 % in the summer , overoptimistic over US economic recovery and job creation,( despite March strong 300,000  new jobs can not sustainable after June quarter tax rebate is over ( June job creation already down to 32,000) and  inflation outlook may lead to rate hike after May and summer lead to serious bond market plunge (US lose  380 billion dollar, China lose 270 billion) housing bubble repeat 1995 bond market crash and 2000 election bubble and global IT and blue chips banking shares will peaking out   facing  correction in the month ahead,  
 2005 Oil, commodity prices forecast
 Market speculators using Oil prices plunged from 55 to 40 and back to 56, and Intel profit , over-optimistic outlook, Apple profit up 70 % due to i-Pod new product innovation Dell 29 % profit gain to push Dell and High tech, and  IBM PC sale to China, Oracle PeopleSoft 10 billion dollar merger facing margin squeeze and Sprint Nextel 35 billion dollar merger all facing sharp competition, to speculate blue chips and Nasdaq will give up all its recent gain is premature ,oil price  rebound to 55 in March accurately predict by Dr. Huang in Beijing Feb 23, 2005 will challenge 60 due to OPEC one million production cut and winter and summer peak demand, and challenge 55- 60 in summer 2005.
2005 High tech stock performance forecasts
US and global IT ( from chips, PC, to telecommunication, entertaining) demand growth will be slow down to 6 % , facing profit squeeze, stock prices retreat 30 -50 %, with China internet stocks bubble burst, plunge 70- 80 % . Dell profit decline continue,  facing profit squeeze, pricing cutting from HP, Apple sales and general economic slowdown, Dell stock will plunge below 35, IBM test 85. HP profit, stock prices continue drag by PC operation (as warned by Dr. Huang on this website) speculating on HP CEO change will not improve near term profit, stock performance, only smart PC can lead to breakthrough.  Global IPO  will facing 30-50 % correction  as   Google enjoyed 7 fold earning increase, it has PE of 145, and profit margin of only 12 %, stock price at 215 is extremely overpriced, repeating Yahoo of 2000, will  plunged from 215 to 100-120, any attempt using IPO and  PG and Gillette merger to speculate market rebound will be followed by sell off bear trap   avoided trillion dollar bond, equities, derivative market loss made trillion dollar oil, commodity derivatives market profit.
US  dollar weakness continue in 2005:  Soaring import leading to record US trade deficit of 655 billion in summer will  drag US dollar into new low continue into this year Euro : 1.29- 1.45 , Yen 95- 102, 
Global stocks bear market correction into 2005, give up most of 2004 gain
 US, Asian and European stocks  follow US stocks  rebound currently will gave up all this year gain  China and US economic slowdown will drag global economic growth, stocks  ( including IPO )facing  30-50 % bear market  correction consolidation   Dow will be traded 9750- 10900, Nasdaq  1750- 2100 , S&P 1060-1200, US 10 year bond yield will be back to 4.4- 4.9 in March 2005. Taiwan index post election bubble burst from 7200 to  5000- 6100, Henseng 12500- 14200, Nikkei 10000- 11900, China credit tightening continue. Shanghai A 1150- 1300, Shenzhen 2750- 3350,  consolidation Hundred thousands integrated, global  structural, dynamics, deterministic proprietary model simulators first time 
 China Macroeconomic control tracking, forecasts: China started second phase credit tightening, rate hike series begin.
China finally raised prime rate by 0.27, to cool off the asset bubble, with structural rate hike, floating loan upper limit from  5.6- 12.5 %, Oct. 28, 2004, accurately  predicted by  Dr. Huang last Nov. 2003 in Euro-events Singapore, Shanghai, Beijing, Asian/China finance, capital market conference and May 8, 15, 2004 to San Francisco Silicon Valley Finance radio and Global Finance Forum, Hi tech investment seminar, Silicon Valley and on this website, visited by million global central banks, banking, finance, corporate executives.
Global central banks ignoring Dr. Huang's warning on this website and global conferences, underestimated global economic recovery resulted inflation, demand for housing, manufacturing, auto pushed oil, metal prices to new high and rising cost, prices to 5000 upstream /downstream raw materials, products resulted US Fed raising rate , too little, too late, China delaying  rate hike to effectively cut market demand led to China Sept.  CPI inflation up 5.2 % again and 2004 GDP growth still at 9.4 % due to increasing   business ( up 28 %)and consumer demand up 14 % ,will facing soaring inflation  from current 3.9 % to 5.6 % in winter peaking holiday demand season and summer 2005.   Despite  China Peoples Bank raised deposit ratio by 1.5 %
China first two month 2005 demand overheated again with fixed investment up 26 %, housing demand up 28 %,
retail sales up 14 %, industrial production up 17 %,Feb inflation up from Jan 1.9 % to 3.9 %, export up 37 %, fisrt quarter GDP will back up to 9 % again, the soaring oil prices at 56, will past it costs downstream, further drive oil, coal, transportation costs and steel, construction materials prices, push March inflation above 4 %, forced China Peoples Bank raised housing loan interest and first down payment by 10 %.,, more tightening in summer is expected.
and cutting capital investment in steel, cement, aluminum, auto loan lead to  some progress macroeconomic control with Sept. money supply growth at 13.6 % (below 17 % target), auto sales up only  10 %, asset prices, inflation  followed soaring oil price to 55,  all time high metal prices   coastal cities Beijin, Shanghai GDP up 14 %) from year ago, wealth effect, FDI drive national  housing prices up 14.8 % ( 2750 ) and 38 % for coastal cities Shanghai, Ninbo,, Guanzhou .  retail sale up 13.2, China 2004 GDP up 9.2 % far above 7 % target, medium, long term loan up 25.4  %, inflation up 4 % . China economy  is far from soft landing, will have very tough year to cut domestic demand and GDP below 8 % and  call the need for further  interest rate hike in summer and raise deposit reserve ratio   to cool off the consumer and housing demand in winter holiday peak and summer  season .  As. China Peoples bank issue 100 billion notes to cut 100 billion from the money market avoid overheated Chinese New Year demand further drive up inflation.  soaring China, US demand pushing China steel, cement, aluminum investment (over 120 %), coal, energy shortage,  stocks prices  rebound from 1250  to 1470 speculating over Premier's  915 statement over stock market stability is overheated ( accurately predicted by Dr. Huang on this website and already retreat to 1150) market is over, continue bear market technical rebound ( within 20 %  and consolidation, with Shanghai A testing 1150- 1300, IPO and newly listed small cap shares plunge 30-50 % with most testing its IPO price, low prices blue chips shares like Sinopec, Unicom will lead future rebound 20  %. , This supply side tightening are insufficient to cool  the uneven economic overheating,  as China raised key interest rate by 0.27 % and  implement  structural  rate hikes in late Oct. as predicted by Dr. Huang to cut off excessive consumer , business demand in housing, construction materials, auto and retails  demand . to cool off soaring housing and metals prices,  and  serious energy , electricity , coal shortage, and transportation, communication bottleneck. 
China benefited by lower food price, Jan CPI drop to 1.9 %  from Oct. 5.2 %, however rising heating oil, gas , coal, water, service charge ( oil prices will rebound 55 and feedstock price, falling dollar will push US and global inflation  in the winter heating demand drive China Feb inflation to 3.9 %
China has hard time  achieve soft landing in the second half 2005, as China Peoples Bank has to cut money supply growth below 10 % and GDP below 8 %. and fixed investment growth below 15 %  Dr. Huang also predicted  Oct. 1994 to China Wuhan securities news, Wangguo,  Kuotai  securities investors, BeijingChina Financial Times, China macroeconomic control will be soft-landing 1996, Shanghai A will be traded  between 600- 800 during 1994- 1996 He recommended that China stocks will be very attractive to QFII in the new Millennium
Global central banks, economist, financial market , industrial sectors analysts, CEO  ignoring ,Dr. Huang photo  warning to ECB, JP Morgan in Rome, China Peoples Bank governor Dai central bank governors conference in Macao, Taiwan central bank governor Asian Pacific conference Taipei, APEC finance Thailand prime minister, ASEAN central bank governors conferences in Bangkok, US Fed  governors , Washington Area, NASD finance conferences 1998-2000 on  IT asset bubble bursts
 Hundred thousands integrated, global  structural, dynamics, deterministic proprietary model simulators first time 
 CLick for Sample OSA Simulation Charts tracking forecasts 1-3 month ahead monetary policy on daily
A. Consumer spending, Fed Fund rate, Dollar exchange rate impact on Dow Jones Index
B. Japan money supply growth, Yen exchange rate, Dow Jones impact on Tokyo Nikkei index
C. EU  money supply growth, EURO exchange rate, Dow Jones impact on German DAX index
D. Hong Kong money supply growth, interbank rate, Dow Jones impact on Henseng index have been developed, implemented supporting the following  goal, mission, performance oriented  outsourcing strategic centers corporate/ memberships/ workshops   tailored to global government, enterprises, banking, finances enterprises  board members, think tank and executives in integrating into the global markets decision needs:ook Dr. Warren Huang's  China/US credit tightening impact on global recovery, capital market asset prices, risk  hedging 2004 second half  global investment strategy workshops (  June Taipei, Shanghai, Beijin, Hong Kong tour )getting ahead of the emerging trend, capitalize on China , US rate hike impact on global economy and capital markets, while minimize credit, markets, operational risks.osawhh@citiz.net

Dr. Warren Huang lectured  San Francisco Nexusdirect.net Huaxin securities Silicon Valley investors workshop on China/US rate hike, soaring oil prices impact on 2004 second half global asset allocation, investment strategy, May 15, 2004 at World Journal daily news center, predicted, recommended  accurately buy China ADR shares plunged 30- 50 %; Unicom, CNOOC ADR shares and US Silicon Valley high tech, biotech, as Nasdaq plunge below 1875, The Nasdaq did plunged to 1865 May 17, Monday, investors bought these share at their bottom, enjoyed almost 20 % profit  
======Dr. Warren Huang  North American China-US  TV radio interview, investment seminar Lecture =====
Dr. Huang had half hour interview by Silicon Valley Financial TV, Radio station to speak on China/US credit tightening impact on economy and high tech/biotech corporate performance, stock prices, Global ADR asset allocation and risk management. accurately predicted Dow broke 10,000, Nasdaq broke 1900 to 1850, recommended to buy CHina ADR, US high tech share completed 30- 50 % correction, and gold at 370, downgrade India high tech share. US Nasdaq plunged to 1875, May 10, India stocks plunged 12 % May 17
Global Chinese Finance Forum San Francisco Silicon Valley High Tech/Biotech Investment Seminar 2004
An excellent opportunity to meet with Dr. Warren Huang to discuss “Market Trend and Outlook for Chinese Theme Stocks in US” and CEOs from five growing public companies to learn their current projects and growth potentials.
Date: May 8, 2004 (Saturday)        Time: 9:30-3:10pm  Venue: Crown Plaza Hotel, 777 Bellew Drive, Milpitas Format: Presentation in Chinese and English, Booths, Q&A, Lunch  
Dr. Huang accurately predicted Dow broke 10,000, Nasdaq broke 1900 to 1850, recommended to buy CHina ADR, US high tech share completed 30- 50 % correction, and gold at 370, downgrade India high tech share. US Nasdaq plunged to 1875, May 10, India stocks plunged 12 % May 17

==China stocks, bond, commodity, metals, mutual fund investment strategy, bubbles warning workshops== , reserve  osawhh@citiz.net
 Structural, dynamic Predictive Global Central Banks Monetary Policy for Sustainable Growth and Asset Prices Stability Guidance and Control:  Policy Impact Simulation  Beat daily capital, money, insurance, property market Prices by 3 month Workshops
Monetary,  Economic, Fiscal Policy, WTO  impact on Global  Economic, Business cycles, Asset, Wealth , Prices  bubbles burst, oil, energy , Currency crisis, recession FEED FORWARD ( predicted 3-6 month ahead) SUSTAINABLE GROWTH AND ASSET PRICES STABILITY CONTROL Financial Markets Return, Asset Allocation, Strategic Risks OSA (RIGHT  HAND )  
Structural, Dynamics simulation of Monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on last 20 years global macro economic, business cycles, capital market asset prices, bubbles , financial crisis, boom and busts achieving growth and prices stability control predicted 1- 3 month ahead,  Global financial crisis since 1980 and 2000 high tech bubble burst and 2001-2003 global market crash and recovery :
Dr. Warren Huang HAS BEEN INVITED TO SPEAK TO 24 GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS GOVERNORS  CONFERENCE ( FRB, ECB, China Peoples Bank, Taiwan, Japan, Korea, Thailand, Asian ) since 1998 warned that Global high tech bubble burst will plunge 50-70 % and facing recession. He offered thousands lectures accurately predicted China Peoples Banks monetary policy impact on 1994-96 macro-economic control-soft landing on China daily stock markets to China 15 cities 30 million investors, national newspapers during 1994-1998 in China and again predicted China excessive money supply, housing bubble facing tightening Mar. 2003 Shanghai workshops

Thousands   causes and effect structural, dynamic proven predictive OSA simulators beat  daily money, capital, insurance, property markets ( published thousands articles, 30 million copies ( over 10 million readers ) for reliable tracking, forecasts 3 month ahead of last 20 years  central banks monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on global/China economy, daily capital market asset prices, bubble early warning, tailor to QFII/QDII  investment needs.
Dr. Huang accurately  predicted  last 20 years daily US interest rate, commodities, gold, oil prices daily capital market prices 4 month ahead and again at  Shanghai University of Finance, Economics, Oct. 25,  Euro-event  Singapore, Nov. 5,  2003 Asian Finance, capital market conference on  Monetary policy impact on Asian and China  economic outlook, asset prices, applying his two master hands ( interest rate and trade) currency market forces price mechanism, wrote 600 articles on trade journal, helping Taiwan central bank and 200,000 importer/exporters daily/weekly NT/  100 currencies ( US and cross rates) from NT fixed at 40 to float to 25- 40, covering Yen from 250 to 80 during 1985- 1995 and Asian financial crisis. He  warned  that any free float of RMB will  lead to China currency crisis and US runaway inflation import consumer goods will up 50 % to double) and  repeat past global financial crisis, bubble burst. Only Dr. Huang's two master hands ( interest rate and trade, economic policy ) market forces price mechanism guide through RMB gradual appreciation  widening trading band is the best approach, regardless peg to the dollar or a basket of currency.  Greenspan agree with Dr. Huang recently too that China RMB immediate float will resulting global crisis Dr. Huang also recommended the best approach for RMB is through cutting China-US trade surplus ( as China already spending 15 billion buying US auto, airplane, cotton, semiconductors, wheat , will start to show on China trade, cutting US trade deficit in the month ahead, and     as China cut 3 % export rebate) and China  first quarter export growth back to 33 %, import growth 43 %, with 85 billion trade deficittake pressure off RMB,
He also  recommended to  buy Russia oils,  China A, B ADR  oil, petroch( PTR, SNP, CEO), steel, aluminum share and Hong Kong H shares due to soaring Russia China, demand, profits, DFI inflow, while sell overheated US,  Taiwan,  Singapore, Korea, Japan, German  IT shares, due to price cutting. buy with caution global banking, finance stocks due to low interest rate, soaring housing, stock markets facing bubble burst.   and continue recommendation on China shares  on China finance, capital market conference  Shanghai, Nov. 25 ,  Beijin, Nov. 27  2003, but warned China  stocks bubble on China economic society annual meeting, Fudan Univeristy, Dec. 20, 2003 warned bubbles in China ADR share up 50 % -80 % , IPO shares up 150 %  and on this website that accurately predicted housing and equities wealth effect bubbles leading to China repeat 2001 overheating  and US household wealth already matching 2000 bubble  will repeat 1999-2000 bubble burst /deflation , with current recovery peaking out third quarter 2003 (GDP 8.3 % ,consumer, spending, money supply growth at 8 %,  ISM over 66, productivity at 9.5 % consumer confidence over 100 (will plunge to 80- 90) are inflationary and  unsustainable, dollar plunge,( ECB will leave rate unchange to take the pressure of EURO) inflationary already leading to  19 year high in commodity oil prices, soaring housing, equities prices, wealth effect bubble burst in post election, if not deflated by then  ) and second quarter 2004, raise interest rate after  May, 2004  ,facing slowdown ( 3 % GDP  ) by year end,
China suffered by housing  wealth effect, FDI and equities bubbles , wealth effect led Jan whole sales prices up 6.7%, consumer prices up 5.7 % will continue credit tightening, as  China People's bank  cut the money supply growth from 2003's 18 % to 17 % for macro economic control, reduce excessive, repetitive investment (steel, cement, auto, housing, aluminum, consumer loan and raise reserve ratio to 0.75 to cut 100 billion RMB from banking system, stock prices facing 20 % correction and Greenspan indicated the need for rate hike .US dollar rebound ,oil prices traded 35-40  gold price peaking out , traded 380-450 ,China leave RMB unchange , BP ( visit this website regularly, )selling PTR, SNP in Hong Kong and China ADR shares down 10- 20 % recently and Greenspan indicated the need for rate hike   will facing 20 % correction   
China ADR shares prices OSA,  asset bubble earning warning,
China ADR shares facing soaring oil prices, China/US credit tightening will make 20 % correction, individual stocks making 30- 50 % correction in the month ahead

========================Special  Announcement==============================
 Due to Dr. Huang's busy US, Asian workshops demand for US/China credit tightening, soaring oil prices impact on 2004 second half US/Asian market investment strategy,     join  Dr. Huang's full day workshops provide the latest forecasts, investment opportunities, risks early warning for  2004 global economy, capital markets prices, Global Currencies, ADR shares , mutual fund asset management investment opportunities,  global central banks monetary policy makers, financial, capital markets, CEO, executives, investors book your strategic  workshops

   email   osawhh@citiz.net , wh3928@yahoo.com for reservation
All this website recommendation are for investors references, not responsible for any financial loss,
Dr. Huang has copy right on it contents, should not be used for any commercial use without  approval 

Daily China  government, corporate bond yield, commodity, metal, grain futures, mutual fund performance/forecasts
China IPO shares  soared 150 % with average P/E ration over 56- 75 follow Shanghai index as investors sentiment reaching new high repeating 2001 bubble burst risks
Daily Shanghai and Shenzhen A, B shares investment strategy, early warning
Hong Kong Blue Chip and China red chips, H- Share prices OSA,  asset bubble earning warning,

  USA    Australia  Asian  Canada  China   Hong Kong   Taiwan    Thailand   Japan  S. Korea   Singapore  Malaysia  Phillipines  Indonesia   Viet-Nan   India  UK/EURO  Russia/E. Europe    Mexico   Argentina  Brazil

 US and global markets   global capital markets investment strategic simulation tailored to your need . please email wh3928@yahoo.com for reservation

OSA/China Monetary policy  for sustainable macro economic control Financial Markets 
Current China macro economy, financial markets asset bubbles simulation
China economy facing uneven economic development as US situation, The excessive money supply ( rate cuts to 5 %), 300 billion Yuan fiscal stimulus in fight deflation, 60 billion 30 % increase in hot direct foreign investment inflow due to expectation of  Yuan appreciation and export growth, 345 billion foreign reserve resulted 23 % increase in consumer housing and auto loan  demand and consumer prices index up 0.4 % i Aug., resulted China Peoples Bank issue warning on overheated housing and auto sectors and raised capital reserve ration from 6 % to 7 % (equivalent 150 billion Yuan remove from loan) resulted banking, auto, housing stock down 30- 50 % as predicted by Dr. Warren Huang in  his China investment strategy workshop in

China 2003-2004 economy and financial, Capital  market OSA forecasts

Shanghai, Dr. Huang predicted to 600 investors early  March 2003 that China auto, properties markets overheated bubble burst stocks will   rebound 30- 50 % , Shanghai A rebound from 1450 to 1650, and give up its gain  in third quarter 2003 Shanghai A will test 1300-, Shenzhen A retest 2850-3050, with technical rebound by big cap blue china low prices shares Unicom, Sinopec (SNP), Shanghai auto, Pudong develop bank, Vanke shares.
Monetary Policy on  inflation, GNP and economic indicators  for sustainable  growth and asset price stability)
OSA simulation  macro-economics/Capital Market
Inflation rate = F (Money supply growth rate %, Oil prices, Commodity index, Dollar exchange rate)
GNP = F (Money supply growth rate %, Interest Rate, Export Growth Rate)
Property prices = F (Money supply growth rate %, Interest Rate, stock index)
NAPM = F( Consumer spending growth rate %, Interest Rate, stock index)
Business, consumer spending = F( Overnite interest rate, money supply growth,  exchange rate)
Stock indices = F(  Nasdaq index), Interest rate,  exchange rate
 Wealth Effect = F( money supply, consumer, business spending, interest rate, currency, stock index, housing prices)
China macro-economic control, financial Crisis OSA , Early Warning 2003-2004
Monetary Policy :Open Market Operations  Simulation excessive money supply from 15 to 23 %  leading to  properties prices up 60 %-100 % since 1999, and auto demand up 67 %, steel and cotton prices doubled, asset  bubble and raise the reserve ratio from 6 to 7 %, intended to cut M2 supply growth from 23 % to 18 % target. ( it was down to 19.4  % in Feb. 2004.  daily interbank rate up up from 2 % to 3.9 % in early Nov and and easing off in Dec. to 2.2 %. raised business loan  upper  rate floating limit .China Peoples Bank 4 th quarter  2003 GDP soared to 10.7 % Jan money supply was excessive as inter bank rate still at 2.2 %,  it will up in the month ahead, Feb  money supply growth still at 19.4  % was excessive led to monetary policy meeting discuss taking effective measure to restructure loan structure, avoid excessive loan into excessive investment to low quality overlapped industries ( steel and auto, telecommunication While encourage banking industry to increase their loan to medium, small enterprises and boost rural area consumer demand, creating jobs
Monetary policy: second phase credit tightening: Dr. Huang lectured on Monetary policy impact on global capital markets asset prices, bubble early warning, risk management  to Euro-events  Asian finance, capital markets conference Nov. 5, 2003, China, finance, capital market conference, Nov. 25, 2003, Shanghai, Nov. 27, Beijin, 2003 accurately predicted US will raise interest rate by May, 2004, China will continue credit tightening, as confirmed by China People's bank Jan 5 to cut the money supply growth  target from 2003's 18 % ( actual Feb 2004  at  19.4 % ) to 17 % this year and Greenspan indicated the need for rate hike
Retail sales up  9 % increasing  demand benefited by strong export,  rebound in  demand for computer, auto durable goods, retail sales and  crude oils   import,
manufacturing  production index : up   12% recovery from slowdown in  export during New year holiday, it will picking up in the month ahead
Export : Benefited by strong US and Asian recovery demand, US dollar plunge against EURO  export growth at up 28%  Feb  2004, it will picking up in the month ahead
manufacturing  production index : up   9% due to slowdown in  export during New year holiday,
Import : up  42 % to 357.3 billion due to rising oil, raw material import prices   crude oil, import, and domestic demand, wealth effect in direct foreign capital flow in coastal cities.
Trade Surplus: facing deficit 7.9  billion due to soaring import growth  42 %it will picking up in the month ahead
RMB Currency :  firm at 8.26 facing appreciation pressure, however trade deficit will take pressure off RMB  as China buying 15 billion US auto, airplanes, commodity , semiconductors and cut 2 % export tax rebate will reduce China surplus with US by  15 billion  lead to near term firm at 8.27
Agricultural , Food prices: will be up 20  % due to rising   global commodities, oil   prices weak dollar
Inflation:  3.2 % , CPI up 5.8 %industrial products prices up 6.5 % despite some  still facing deflation  due to weak global prices, and import duty cut supported by  soaring oil prices but inflation pressure in housing, energy, food.
Interest rate:   5.4  % raised short term loan upper limit.
GDP growth rate %:   benefited by  strong  export growth and Foreign direct inflow, money supply growth soared to 23 % lead to 4 Q  GDP of  10.7 % , will be slowed to 7.5 %- 8.0 % in 2004
China facing 3 % shortage in power supply as demand outstrip supply by 3 % due to excessive steel, auto, cement, aluminum demand
Shanghai, Shenzhen A, B stock Index     Daily hot stocks OSA     weekend hot stocks review OSA
Both markets are overheated by sector rotation   speculating on low priced shares, H-shares, blue chips, ST block (restructuring) high-tech stocks with  Shanghai A soared from 1300 to 1750, SHanzhen from 2800 to  3955,  ignoring China Peoples bank credit tightening, falling global  prices for high  tech products due to sharp competition and soaring oil and raw material prices , will give up 10 % of  it's recent gains going for 10- 15 % correction consolidation due to Peoples bank concerned overheated loan demand, falling auto, banking, housing stock 30 % correction will drag  Shanghia A  near term traded between 1550-  1700  medium term  traded between 1350- 1665, SHenzhen A near term traded between 3700-3950 medium term , between 3200 -3700    IPO stocks and ST block stocks  earning are disappointing due to rising oils, raw material, energy costs and falling prices.

Asian financial crisis , China peoples bank's monetary policy impact on China macro GNP, inflation, export,  interest rates, currency,  stocks, commodity, properties prices impact on 
======Special  Strategic Structural Wealth Management Risks Hedging /workshops  Announcement =======
OSA pioneer Dr. Warren Huang will offer full day Structural Strategic Wealth Management and Risks Hedging
  He will speak on Global strategic wealth management , asset allocation, and risk  early warning, hedging , introducing thousands strategic investment simulators predicted 3 month ahead  on global financial crisis, asset, wealth bubble burst, avoided trillion dollar market, wealth loss for 30 million China, Taiwan, Asian, US, European investors, VIP traders, money managers since 1985 
Thousands structural dynamic OSA  futures, option prices simulators tracking  forecasts 3 month ahead last 20 years monetary, economic, fiscal, trade policy impact on global economy, daily global financial markets performance and provide early warning , risk hedging covering all  crisis, avoided markets and hedging fund, wealth managers speculating on the business, economic, market news , chasing the markets, betting on the direction resulted trillion dollar loss. He will offer in-house strategic wealth management workshops for Beijin, Shanghai, Hong, Kong, Taipei, Singapore QFII, QDII, VIP investors, traders , banking, insurance CEO, executives during March- April  2004 reserve by osawhh@citiz.net  /wh3928@yahoo.comTrillion dollar Nonperformance assets Management, workshops, 
OSA maximize nonperformance debt, equities, property asset performance, value recovery, pre- warning for future NPL workshops ?Tracking?the causes, onset, recovery, prevent?of?assets bubble burst reserve your in-house workshops email wh3928@yahoo.com

How OSA accurately predicted China avoided 1994 Financial Crisis and made soft-landing 1996 and avoided 1998 Asian Financial Crisis , recovery Simulation:
This author with Ji and Dai spending half time in China during 1989 - 1998 implementing OSA tracking simulation of CHina economy, financial market prices: Simulation of   Taiwan, Hong Kong and China peoples banks monetary policy impact on inflation and GNP and interest rate, Taiwan and RMB currency and stock markets prices. It accurately tracking and predicted daily China economy and financial markets activities, how the former Prime minister Zhu Rongji successfully managed China's monetary policy led China avoided possible financial crisis by successfully controlled the inflation, to bring it down from 35 % and 100 % currency depreciation to deflation of ?.5 %in 1999 and current 2.5 % by cutting the money supply growth from peak of 35 % in 1994 to 1996 15 % to achieve soft-landing and boost domestic demand to maintaining 15 % money supply growth 7.8 % GNP growth which lead to Shanghai stock index plunge from 1994 peak of 1550 to 333 and stabilized traded between 600 and 800 during 1994 and 1996 through three stages credit tightening to cut the domestic demand and reduced the import duty by 30 % to reduce the importing inflation and implemented stock markets and financial institution regulation and full transparency, ban short term foreign capital speculation in the housing and stock markets achieved perfect soft-landing in 1996. And also predicted 1996 interest rate cuts leading to bull markets, with Shanghai A index tripled from 520 to 1650 . ( all predicted by the author on lectures to 20 million 15 cities TV, radio programs and national newspapers during 1994- 98 .The state enterprise reform and Asian crisis resulted high unemployment and export slowdown, pulling the money supply down from 1996s 28 % to 14 % in 1999, drag the GNP form 9.5 % to 7.8 % . He also predicte