Monetary Policy Impact on Argentina Macroeconomic Asset Bubble Burst , Defaults  and Financial Markets and nonperformance asset recovery, pre-warning Risks OSA (Operations Simulation Analysis)
South American  Financial Crisis, Economic Recovery Risk Management OSA   Sept. 2003 edition

Goal: Dynamic tracking simulation the root causes, onset, recovery of  ASEAN currency crisis,  Asian financial crisis, US, EURO slowdown impact on Argentina   macro GNP, inflation, export,  interest rates, currency,  stocks, commodity, IT products properties prices impact on consumer and business spending, to predict, forecast overpriced asset prices resulted consumers spending imbalance and business profit slump due to central banks raising interest rates to cool off the economy, leading to bubble burst and abrupt change in consumer and business confidence caused stock prices plunges with average error below 1.5 %, correlation constant above 0.95.
Dr. Huang return from  Asia, lectured to Asian Business Forum's  European, Asian central banks, stock exchanges, banking, securities executives on global nonperformance loan debt, equities, properties? asset prices , credit risk simulation, investment strategy and Asset Backed Securitization workshops: predicting the unpredictable futures to  minimize bad loan ,shares buy back  procurement , investment costs and credit defaults risks  due to corporate scandal and global economic, cycle, financial crisis integration, interaction impact on interest, currency, industrial demand, prices, ?the causes, onset, history , recovery of nonperformance asset bubble bursts, default maximize investment return, auction resell , syndicated loan value recovery, workshops by thousands proprietary OSA simulation charts supporting daily financial engineering, structural finance application to Global Capital Markets Asset Management, Credit defaults risks control on this website

==== Global trillion dollar NPL assets prices simulation, recovery, prevention workshops,==
OSA maximize nonperformance debt, equities, property asset performance, value recovery, pre-warning for future NPL workshops tracking the causes, onset, recovery, prevent of assets bubble burst
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 Monetary Policy on global stock prices,: Global stock prices and monetary policy impact on consumer and business spending. Global stock prices, monetary policy impact on housing properties prices and rent Global stock prices, monetary policy impact on GDP macro-economics performance. Global stock prices, monetary policy impact on procurement manager index Global stock prices, monetary policy impact on consumer and business confidence Global stock prices, monetary policy impact on saving rate. Global stock prices, monetary policy impact on corporate profit margin Global monetary policy, external shocks( commodities, currency and credit default) impact on bubble , burst, abrupt change of consumer, business confidence (Asian crisis, LTCM)

Global Central Banks Monetary Policy for Sustainable Growth and Asset Prices Stability Guidance and Control:  Policy Impact Simulation  Workshops
Monetary,  Economic, Fiscal Policy, WTO  impact on Global  Economic, Business cycles, Asset, Wealth Prices  bubbles burst, oil, energy , Currency crisis, recession FEED FORWARD SUSTAINABLE GROWTH AND ASSET PRICES STABILITY CONTROL Financial Markets Return, Asset Allocation, Strategic Risks OSA (RIGHT  HAND )  
Structural, Dynamics simulation of Monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on last 20 years global macro economic, business cycles, capital market asset prices, bubbles , financial crisis, boom and busts achieving growth and prices stability control predicted 1- 3 month ahead,  Global financial crisis since 1980 and the root causes, onset, recovery of Asian Financial Crisis Asian Financial 2000 high tech bubble burst  July 2001 in Beijin   that Taiwan index plunged to 3400,  Henseng plug below 9000,  facing recession nd 2001-2003 global market crash and recovery :
Dr. Warren Huang HAS BEEN INVITED TO SPEAK TO 24 GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS GOVERNORS  CONFERENCE ( FRD, ECB, China Peoples Bank, Taiwan, Japan, Korea, Thailand, Asian ) since 1998 warned that Global high tech bubble burst will plunge 50-70 % and facing recession. He offered thousands lectures accurately predicted China Peoples Banks monetary policy impact on 1994-96 macro-economic control-soft landing on China daily stock markets to China 15 cities 30 million investors, national newspapers during 1994-1998 in China and again predicted China excessive money supply, housing bubble facing tightening Mar. 2003 Shanghai workshops
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USA    Australia  Asian  Canada  China   Hong Kong   Taiwan    Thailand   Japan  S. Korea   Singapore  Malaysia  Phillipines  Indonesia   Viet-Nan   India  UK/EURO  Russia/E. Europe    Mexico   Argentina  Brazil 
Dr. Warren Huang accurately predicted 1998 summer on osawh.com and Rome speech  that the falling oil, commodity prices and strong dollar will lead to  US  cut interest rates , to allowed South American, Asian countries cut interest rate to precrisis level, stock rebound strongly lead to increased  Argentina and  Asian export growth, consumer demand,  recovery. 
Dr. Huang also accurately predicted on 1999 May Macao central banks governor conference   that US Fed will raise fund rate in June due to soaring stocks, properties, oil prices, which will take US stocks and Asian stock prices into minimum 15 % correction, and some internet stock with 50-90 % corrections, Dow Jones will test  9000, Nasdaq test   1600, Henseng test 12000, Nikkei test 12,000, Bangkok index down to 300, Taiwan index down to  4500 with  asset  bubble  simulation models on Macao's central bank governors conference, Taipei's Pacific Basin finance conference and Washington DC NASD conferences .during April and May 1999.
Dr. Huang also accurately predicted in June 6, Bacelona, Spains' European Financial Managment conferences on emerging market economy and risks panel (chairman by George Washington Universities capital market research center director David Walker that Argintina peso peg to the dollar will be the facing currency crisis like Brazil in the next recession.
2001 US recession led to Argentina huge trade deficit, and  141 billion debt facing default.

Argentina OSA:
Monetary Policy on  inflation, GNP and economic indicators  for sustainable  growth and asset price stability)
OSA simulation  macro-economics:
Inflation rate = F (Money supply growth rate %, Oil prices, Commodity index, Dollar exchange rate)
GNP = F (Money supply growth rate %, Interest Rate, Export Growth Rate)
Property prices = F (Money supply growth rate %, Interest Rate, stock index)
NAPM = F( Consumer spending growth rate %, Interest Rate, stock index)
Business, consumer spending = F( Overnite interest rate, money supply growth, EURO exchange rate)
Stock indices = F( Dow Jones index), Interest rate,  exchange rate

 Argentina  is benefited by strong global demand lead to    rebound in commodity and   prices and currency depreciation from 1. to 3.5  boost it's export and trade surplus to support currency at 3.5   and  141 billion  defaults  and capital outflow risks forced government closing banks and FX market
However, plunging currency at 3.5, boosted export and trade surplus to 17 billion and currency rebound to 2.90, falling interest rate at 7.6 % ,  production up 11.6 % and GDP up 5 %  inflation drop to 4.9 %, lead to stock rebound from 450 to 760, economy recovered to pre-crisis level
manufacturing  production index :  rebound  11 %due to stability domestic demand ,US , Asia, However, benefited by Peso depreciation from 1 to 3. ,boosting export
Export :  rebound  by US, EURO recovery     commodity prices, weak   PESO
Import :  down, due to PESO plunge,  soaring   oil, raw material import prices   will support the import
Trade widening trade surplus to 17 billion due to export boost , PESO depreciation  
Currency stabilize  to    2.6-3.1  due to near term credit default, but   widening  trade surplus improved current account
stock index :  will be traded  600-800
Inflation :   4 % , due to  stable PESO depreciation,
GDP growth rate % GDP at  5 %,  with external debt running to 50 % of GDP, 
 
These deterministic, dynamic simulation of last 20 years global asset prices, and economy boom and bust of the asset bubble vicious cycle of excessive monetary policy, low interest rate induced sustained long term bull markets stocks prices gain caused consumer and business spending in real estate properties pushed soaring housing prices and rent. And deficit spending (negative saving) in stock markets, pushed the stock s even higher, until abrupt reverse of consumer and investor confidence --the bubble burst- plunge of stocks and properties prices as it happened in US, Japan, Taiwan in 1980, 1987, 1990, energy crisis, EURO 1992 currency crisis, 1994 China runaway inflation, 1995 Mexico crisis, 1997-98 ASEAN, Japan, Korea, Russia, Brazil currency crisis, all caused by overpriced stock prices due to excess monetary policy and high GDP growth
USA        China      Thailand       Taiwan      Japan      Hong Kong     Korea        Singapore    Indonesia     Canada  Mexico

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