Ssetosawh
OSA Global Proactive Structural Asset Pricing , Housing Prices Bubbles
Burst Mechanism and ABS/MBS Mortgage Bond Spread Pricing Strategy ,
Default Hedging Risks Early Warning, investment management, Nobel
Idea implementation of Breakthrough Innovation in Strategic Structural Finance Decisions Analysis
Housing Market
Strategy Workshops
Chinese
(¤¤¤å
By top down two master hands controlling global asset prices mechanism
pioneer Dr. Warren Huang
(黃華南博士)
Pioneer, proactive
structural dynamic global inflation, macro economy, daily financial markets
interest rates, currency, stock, bond, derivatives, housing,
commodities, oil asset pricing and risks valuation markets
fundamentals price mechanism, accurately warned
on Wall Street Journal Market beat Blog Sept.19, 2007
and Mar
5, 2008 masterclass workshop China fund world 2008, Pudong,
China to Goldman Sach managing directors JPM, UBS and 150
China QDII/QFII fund managers
that US Fed aggressive rate
cuts drag dollar to 1.53-1.65 EURO, 95- 108 Yen, economic stimulus boost
consumer spending on gasoline and jet fuel summer, demand, driving gasoline ,
heating oil to 415, oil price to 121-145, commodity price
double, will peak out as US
dollar rebound follow Fed ending rate cuts cycle , can not
stop
sub-prime crisis spreading, regional housing price slump 30-50
% and credit crisis, crunch crisis continue through 2009 drag economy into
2009 double dip deep recession resulted trillion housing and stock market
loss and US, global stock indices bear market 50 - 70 %
correction , Dow Jones
test 6500-7000- NASDAQ PLUNGE
testing 1250- 1500 and high fliers (GOOG,
PTR, AAPL) , IT, retail stocks facing correction,
with banking, finance, housing share price plunge 70- 90 %, dollar making to new
low 90 Yen, commodity prices doubled, and bubble burst plunge
50 % in recession widening bond
, CDS spread and failure in MBS/CDO,
Bear Stearn 30 billion dollar MBS hedge fund
and government steps rescue Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac bail out, despite
Fed rate cuts
. He also warned top global QFII management on Peking Univ June 2007 International Financial Engineering Conference
that China overheated
housing, stock market wealth gain resulted inflation over 8.7 % will lead to China Peoples Bank credit tightening to remove excessive liquidity,
Banking housing, stock markets follow US
housing price slump 30- 50 %, US - 6.1 GDP contraction, and -10 to - 20 %
contraction for Asian countries deep recession, bear market correction, with Shanghai A testing
1700 rebound to 3450 in 2009
overheated in the first half due to 568 billion economic
stimulus, increased money supply from 15 % to 28 %, fixed investment
from 22 to 35 %., oil price rebound from 33 to 82 summer 2009, and
plunge to 55, due to soaring jobless rate and falling housing price
resulted deep recession continue through first half 2009.
US Fed injected trillion dollars into banking, finance and housing
market stimulus leading to stock market 60 % V- shape rebound from March 2009 low,
and
global stock price bubble appears again ( with China, Russia, Taiwan, China , Hong
Kong over 100 % gain, most serious) , followed by housing price
bubble ( 30- 100 % gain) speculating recession recovery due to
overoptimistic over economic recovery by China/US stimulus package.
China 568 billon stimulus package 14 trillion bank loan resulted excessive
liquidity hot money speculation in stock price ( double, and housing prices
breaking 2007 peak ( almost double) and 4 Q GDP 10.7 % resulted economy
overheating in housing, auto sectors, Feb money supply M1, soared to 39 %,
M2 to 25 % forced Peoples Bank raised bank deposit ratio twice in Feb 2010
to 16.5 % to cool off the housing and stock markets, tightening 2010 loan to 8
trillion, to curb inflation below 3 % ( already 2 % )
US trillion dollars bail out and housing, auto stimulus lead to excessive
liquidity bubble, in stock markets speculation and huge banking, financial
sectors profits, bonus( soared 65 %)
lead budget 14 trillion deficit debt bubble and 4 Q GDP at 5.7 % , PMI at
56 are inflationary inflation rate already soared to 3 %. and prepare for crisis
exit strategy, tighting liquidity( remove trillion dollar excessive liquidity)
to deflate the liquidity bubble before it burst.
While debt bubble in Dubai, Greece, Portugal, Spain, UK already facing bubble,
lead to EURO currency plunge from 1.45 to 1.36
(Strategic Synthetic CDO Workshop)
Nobel idea implementation of decision analysis in US/China, /Global, national,
Regional housing price bubbles, default , financial, crisis, Recession
Operations Simulation Analysis
Global Structural finance OSA structural dynamic,
deterministic Asset price bubbles, risks valuation mechanism simulators on Dr.
Warren Huang's speech prediction years, 3 month ahead of inflation,
interest rate hikes on last 20 years monetary,
economic, fiscal, WTO policy impact on global macro economic control, inflation,
interest rates, capital,
money, insurance, bond and housing, equities markets and 20 industrial sectors asset prices
and defaults risks early warning
Global strategic structural commodity finance OSA maximize risk adjusted return,
avoided trillion loss mortgage bond investment prime, sub-prime loan
defaults
loss due to betting on the wrong side of interest rates.
Global central banks and Bear Stearn , HSBC, Goldman, BNP
, American Home Mortgage and
other financial, mortgage analyst ignoring Dr. Huang's warning again,
underestimated oil, commodities , housing, equities asset bubble impact on
inflation, expecting rake cut resulted betting on the wrong side of
interest rates, bond yield drag 10 yr bond yield to 4.4 % (while Dr. Huang
predicting 5.25 %) and US housing price and market slump into recession resulted billion dollars mortgage
loan default and mortgage bond hedge fund bankruptcy
Dr. Huang predicted US Fed Aug meeting to leave rate unchanged , concern on
inflation, using housing
market recession to cool off overheated
economy due to wealth effect induced equities, housing market bubbles resulted
inflation.
Asset Bubble Biotech/Healthcare EMBA/CEO Basel
II Risk control Business
Process
Outsourcing
Strategic Alliance OSA
Strategic
Sourcing Strategic
E-Procurement Supply
chain optimization Marketing/Sales
Strategy
Integrated
Strategic SRM/ERP/SCM/CRM /Logistics
4PL Logistics
Integration Simulation
US Economy/Structural Finance/ Capital Markets Asset Prices,
Bubble Simulation, early warning :
Beat
Todays Markets
interest rate/bond yield
US hot stocks
,
Global
ADR
US
banks-finance
Oil, Gas Price
Info-100
Silicon -100
Weekend
IPO
pricing
profit early warning
stock
indice future
forex Currency futures
Commodity
Futures Oil/energy futures
Gold/metal
futures
Housing Bubble Basel
II credit risks
market risks
operational risks control
Knowledge Management
20 industrial sectors profit performance
Asian
Economy/Capital Markets Japan
China
Korea
Taiwan Singapore Hong Kong India
Malaysia
China Economy/Capital
Markets Asset
Prices, Bubble
Simulation, early warning :
Shanghai/Shenzhen A/B/IPO China
ADR China mutual
fund/ commodity/ bond Hong
Kong H Red Chips
NPL
Asset Management
QFII/QDII strategy
Supply Chain Logistics
Housing Bubble Basel
II Risk control
Strategic OSA maximize China oil/petrochemical
upstream/downstream profit workshops
(
Beijin workshop)
Strategic
Wealth
Management
Value Investing
Asset Prices bubbles
Dynamic
Asset allocation
interest rate/bond yield
Beat stock
indice future
Beat Forex Currency
Commodity
Futures Oil/energy futures
Gold/metal
futures Beat Global ADR Market
Risks Hedging Strategy
Venture Capital Risks control
Structured
Financial Engineering
Asset securitization
Syndicated
Loan
Basel
II Risk control
Strategic Investment Banking: strategic IPO,
pre/post
merger/acquisition performance
e-Personal Life planning Strategy Intelligent Knowledge Management
Strategic e-commerce Value
Chain Optimization
Adaptive enterprises Change Management
Basel
II Risk control
Monetary
macroeconomic policy Industrial finance Industrial
Economy
Regional Economy
Investment banking Globalization Strategy
e-Gov reform strategy
Banking/Finance
Reform Enterprise Reform
e-Biz
Strategy
OSA
models
Process
Improvement
Business Process Optimization
Global
Strategic Solution Consulting Corporate Governance
Global Crisis OSA
Risk Management Basel
II Risk contro
For Global Banking, Finance Reform central banks, banking, securities, insurance daily strategic risk analysis
Global Rate Hikes Impact , Asset
Prices, Bubble Simulation, Early Warning OSA strategic investment, Basel II risk
control lecture/workshops tours
(covered thousands lectures, 46 countries capital cities 30
million government, banking, finance corporate CEO, CFO, fund managers, senior
executives investors since 1983 by
Speaker, Dr. Warren Huang, Pioneer, Global leader, scholar in Global Strategic Management
Speaker, Dr. Warren Huang, Pioneer, Global leader, scholar
in Global Strategic Investment , Risks Management
Pioneer, two maaster hands controlling global economy, capital market asset
prices, crisis, bubble early warning