Top down quantitative macro-financial models by Proactive Structural Global Financial crisis, causes,early warning, Economic Stimulus impact on Housing,Commodity,Euities Asset Prices bubbles mechanism ,Recession Recovery,macro investing and risks OSA

By top down two master hands controlling global asset prices mechanism pioneer Dr. Warren Huang (黃華南博士) Pioneer, proactive structural dynamic global inflation, macro economy, daily financial markets interest rates, currency, stock, bond, derivatives, housing, commodities, oil asset pricing and risks valuation markets fundamentals price mechanism, accurately warned on Wall Street Journal Market beat Blog Sept.19, 2007 and Mar 5, 2008 masterclass workshop China fund world 2008, Pudong, China to Goldman Sach managing directors JPM, UBS and 150 China QDII/QFII fund managers that US Fed aggressive rate cuts drag dollar to 1.53-1.65 EURO, 95- 108 Yen, economic stimulus boost consumer spending on gasoline and jet fuel summer, demand, driving gasoline , heating oil to 415, oil price to 121-145, commodity price double, will peak out as US dollar rebound follow Fed ending rate cuts cycle , can not stop sub-prime crisis spreading, regional housing price slump 30-50 % and credit crisis, crunch crisis continue through 2009 drag economy into 2009 double dip deep recession resulted trillion housing and stock market loss and US, global stock indices bear market 50 - 70 % correction , Dow Jones test 6500-7000- NASDAQ PLUNGE testing 1250- 1500 and high fliers (GOOG, PTR, AAPL) , IT, retail stocks facing correction, with banking, finance, housing share price plunge 70- 90 %, dollar making to new low 90 Yen, commodity prices doubled, and bubble burst plunge 50 % in recession widening bond , CDS spread and failure in MBS/CDO, Bear Stearn 30 billion dollar MBS hedge fund and government steps rescue Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac bail out, despite Fed rate cuts . He also warned top global QFII management on Peking Univ June 2007 International Financial Engineering Conference that China overheated housing, stock market wealth gain resulted inflation over 8.7 % will lead to China Peoples Bank credit tightening to remove excessive liquidity, Banking housing, stock markets follow US housing price slump 30- 50 %, US - 6.1 GDP contraction, and -10 to - 20 % contraction for Asian countries deep recession, bear market correction, with Shanghai A testing 1700 rebound to 3450 in 2009 overheated in the first half due to 568 billion economic stimulus, increased money supply from 15 % to 28 %, fixed investment from 22 to 33 %., oil price rebound from 33 to 72 summer 2009, and plunge to 55, due to soaring jobless rate and falling housing price resulted deep recession continue through 2009.
US stock market 30 % V- shape rebound from March 2009 low, leading to global stock price bubble appears again ( with Taiwan, China , Hong Kong, most serious) speculating recession recovery due to overoptimistic over economic recovery by China/US stimulus package, are facing bubble burst in summer 2009 correction due to disappointing U shape slow recession recovery

              Strategic PGFCR :       Proactive Global Housing, Credit, Financial Crisis, Recession Operations Simulation) Forecast, complete coverage of years, months, ahead of lat 30 years and current housing, equities, commodities , MBS, ABS asset prices bubbles formation, boom and bust, early warning of derivatives hedging resulted financial crisis, avoided betting on the wrong side of investment resulted trillion dollar loss, deep recession and its impact through global macro, financial, industrial, trade economy integration and impact on daily capital market asset price mechanisms Do not miss Dr. Warren Huang lectures, panelist speakers in Feb, 2009 Hong Kong Provate equities Merger/Acquisition financing summit on Monetary, regulary ,economic stimulus policy impact on China/US distressed asset Acquisition and financing
and in March   2009 and on monetary, econoic stimulus policy impact on    China/US economic, financial market , forex, currency commodities, equities derivatives price mechanism and Trillion Dollar Recession Hedge, supply chain cost reduction Optimal long-short ,ultra short strategy
Phase I monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on Global Housing, Equities, Commodities, Bond, Derivatives Asset Prices Bubble Burst Mechanism and Sub-prime on Daily Prices Dynamics , Subprime, mortgage, Credit crisis, Financial , Systemic Risks   impact on Recession and
Phase II Global recession impact on banking, credit, financial crisis and industrial sectors demand, prices slump and operating loss
for June on Peking Univ. Int. financial risk management conference, Beijing , June and Sept 2007 on Wall Street Journal market beat blog that US housing price slump 30 % continue into 2009, drag economic into deep recession, global stocks into bear market 50- 70 % correction , commodities, energy, raw material, products 50- 70 % correction
Phase III China/US global economic stimulus impact on domestic business investment, consumer demand, GDP, export and housing, stock, commodities, metals market prices., recession recovery.

Comment by Warren Huang Wall Street Journal Market Beat- November 17, 2008 at 4:50 pm
Based on my 30 years proactive structural simulation of last 30 years global monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on inflation, interest rateas, currency, commodities, equities, bond, housing asset prices, It correlation constant ot 0.95, error of 3.5 %,
accurately predicted last 30 years asset price boom and bust, and current US housing prices bubble burst resulted equities, commodity, oil, asset price 50- 70 % plunge, asset bubble burst, drag economy into recession details on www.osawh.com/recession.html www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm www.osawh.com/commody.html www.osawh.com/SP500.htm

by Proactive Structural Dynamic Optimal monetary , economic, fiscal, trade policy , capital markets integration, Operation Simulation Analysis ( OSA ): Chinese (中文)
Phase I Bubble Burst Causes , monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on Global Housing, Equities, Commodities, Bond, Derivatives Asset Prices Bubble Burst Mechanism and Sub-prime on Daily Prices Dynamics , Subprime, mortgage, Credit crisis, Financial , Systemic Risks   impact on Recession and
Phase II Bubbles Burst Impact on Recession and Recession Impact on Crisis: Global Bubble Burst and recession impact on banking, credit, financial crisis and industrial sectors assets demand, prices slump and operating loss
Phase III China/US global economic stimulus impact on domestic business investment, consumer demand, GDP, export and housing, stock, commodities, metals market prices., recession recovery.
http://www.forbes.com/2009/06/09/recession-economy-cities-business-beltway-recovery-cities_slide_12.html?partner=yahoo US best ,worst cities for recession recovery
Final Phase Economic Stimulus Exit Strategy: the what , why, how and timing of removing excess liquidity, debt bubble prevent bubble burst, and credit tightening and rate hikes against double dip inflationary recession
Optimal proactive structural Global and US Fed and Global central banks Monetary Policy, achieving sustainable GDP and Capital Market Growth, and Currency, price stability without Inflation, Asset Prices bubble OSA( Operations Simulation Analysis ) Performance Guidance and Control: Integrating last 30 years global housing, commodities, oil, equities asset prices and consumer prices into monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on GDP and prices stability , proactive optimal control, presented top 24 global central banks governor policy, financial risk management , macro- financial econometric conferences
Comment by Warren Huang Wall Street Journal Market Beat- Blog January 23, 2009 at 2:23 pm
We have been through Phase I monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on Global Housing, Equities, Commodities, Bond, Derivatives Asset Prices Bubble Burst Mechanism and Sub-prime on Daily Prices Dynamics , Subprime, mortgage, Credit crisis, Financial , Systemic Risks impact on Recession which causes housing price down 19 %,trillions dollar financial market loss, bankruptcy of Lehman, AIG Fannie Mae Freddie, Merrill Lynch and Citigroup with deep recession -6.2 % GDP in 4 Q 2008 and -5.7% for 1 Q 2009 and 8.9 %% unemployment and now we in Phase II Global deep recession ( Japan -15 % GDP, China 6.1 %, Korea -4.3 %, Taiwan -8.4 %, German -8.2%, UK -7.4 %, Singapore - 19 %, EURO 4.3 %, Brazil -13.6 %, Russia - 6 %)impact on Global banking, credit, financial crisis and industrial sectors demand, prices slump, export slump, and operating loss with jobless rate at 9.5% and business, consumer spending plunged over 2 %, despite 2 Q GDP shrink to -1 % pushed Dow to 9400 , SP to new high 1019 will drag stock price for 20 % with Dow Jones retest 7000-8000 lows in W shape more summer correction resulted widening mortgage,( as April foreclosure soared to 12 %, housing price down 32 % from 2006 peak, credit card, business loan loss will drag Bank of America 16 billion dollar loss even JP Morgan and more banking, financials into widening loss
despite money supply growth double, to 8 % stock market two month rally 50%, 8 trillion dollar bail out stimulus give some improvement in housing sales rebound, ISM index, tax rebate only provide partial support to consumer sentiment,( still down) but not enough for raise consumer spending, retail spending , home buyer 8000 tax credit and lower interest rate payment cannot stop soaring foreclosure rate to 12 %, with 11 month unsold inventory. capital, liquidity still stay in banking finance system, with improved profit and stock prices after bail out and removing toxic asset,
Real economy and manufacturing still in deep recession, excess capacity with record 67 % utilization, falling demand and prices and profit plunge continue into next week as unemployment rate soared to 10 %by yearend.. with 2 Q still facing -1 % GDP contraction, -2 % for the second half   this year, while China only has 7.2 % GDP growth first half and 8.5 % for the second half due to export decline , despite 568 billion economic stimulus, 33 % growth in fixed investment, 13 % in retail sales ,with 50 % money still in banking, finance, stock market ( up 80 %) fail to enter real economy
The rest of Asian economy facing similar situation following US, China stocks rally with over 40 % growth, even the economy still in deep recession, with 50 % decline in export for Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong These huge Asian stock market bubble will follow US/China market for summer W shape correction , housing market continue to burst, with housing price down 50 % details on http://www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm http://www.osawh.com/recession.html http://www.osawh.com/macro.html http://www.osawh.com/SP500.htm
     US GDP shrink -6.2 % 4 Q 2008 and -5.7 % 1Q2009, -1.0 % 2 Q 2009, suffering deflation risks2009. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Economy-shrinks-at-38-percent-apf-14207818.html
China 4Q GDP plunged from 12 % to 6.8 % will extend to first half around7.2%, gradually pick up second half to 8 % 2009
China Banking housing, stock markets follow US housing price slump, recession, bear market correction, drag China GDP plunged to 6.8 % 4Q 2008,will test 6 % first half 2009 and stay above 8 % second half 2009 due to and China 568 billion infrastructure and 10 industrial sector stimulus program maintain 2009 GDP at 7.5 % and stabilize stock markets, Shanghai traded 1600-3500 through 09   until economy softlanding
China is suffering from housing market overheating, with 300 % gain in housing prices still up only down 1.5 % March 2009 , F after   China peoples Bank cut 2 % rate fighting global economic recession, after 6 rate hikes, 16 bank deposit rat hike to 17.5 %. China raise its M2 money supply growth    28%   to maintain 2009 GDP of 8 %, with fixed investment up 35 %, consumer sales up 15 %, GDP at 7.9% in , export down 25%, PPI down 6 %2Q 2009

predicted Dow Jones rebound from 6500 to 94 00 in bear market rebound, US economic L shape recovery , China Shanghai index rebound in Nov. 2008 due to Economic stimulus Proactive Structural Trillion Dollar Recession Hedging, supply chain cost reduction,Multiclass Asset, Derivatives Allocation Strategy
              by Dr. Warren Huang  website: www.osawh.com Hyatt Regency, Pudong, Shanghai, Mar24- 25, 2009
and
Global/China multiclass (Oil, commodity, Equities, Bond, Housing Asset pricing and allocation by
World Renown Proactive Structural Asset Pricing pioneer Dr. Warren Huang
Post- Conference Master Class Strategic Multi-class Asset Allocation Workshop, Terrapinn                  Chinese
   Proactive Structural Multiclass Asset Prices Mechanism and China/Global Fund World, Asset Allocation 2008,- 2009
                  by Dr. Warren Huang, Pioneer OSA Global Strategic Management      Proactive Recession Strategy
                                            Shangri-La Hotel, Pudong, Shanghai, Mar 4- 6, 2008
                                  Reservation   for your in house workshop   osawhh@sina.com/ wh3928@yahoo.com