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Prices mechanism
predicting the causes, onset, recovery,
early warning Global
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Simulations Analysis (OSA)
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structural economic systems integration, OSA
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stock market
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and asset pricing
Do not miss these trillion dollar investment
,
Billion dollar supply chain cost reduction
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,
risk early warning opportunities
Proactive Structural
Analysis of Housing, Financial Crisis, Exit
Strategy in India:
Financial Crisis, Asset Pricing, Risks
Valuation Forecast, and Early Warning
financing and Basel II financial risks
management 4 Days
workshops in India Delhi and Mumbai
Oct. 21- 24, 2009 for Banking,
Finance, Manufacturing senior executives by Proactive Structural
Crisis, Financial and Enterprises Risk Valuation pioneer Dr. Warren Huang
workshop
program
your
country and in house
crisis, risk management workshop
5-Day 2010 Global financial crisis,
recession recovery impact on Capital Markets Forex, Oil, Commodities, Stocks, Bond,
strategic investment, risk early warning
workshops
5- Day Proactive structural US/China
Monetary, Economic stimulus , fiscal bail
out policy impact on credit
financial crisis, recession and
Currency, gold, oil, metals, housing , stock
indices price mechanism, investment strategy
and risk early warning workshops
2009 economic
recession recovery impact on credit,
financial crisis, global stock
market prices, investment risks
workshops
5- Day
2010 multi-asset class price
mechanism, industrial demand, prices
mechanism, multiclass asset allocation, fund
risk management workshops
5- Day
Proactive Structural Strategic Oil, IT
industries upstream/downstream trillion
investment, billion dollar supply chain cost reduction
workshops series
5- Day
Proactive Structural Global Government,
banking, finance , enterprises bankruptcy,
reorganization, restructuring , strategic
change management OSA program workshop
Global
Industrial Finance
energy finance
trade finance
structural
commodity finance
housing finance
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Integrated
Investment-Supply Chain Logistics
strategy
Integrated Supply
Demand Chain Cost Reduction, Market Share
Strategy:
China Arbitrage Asset
Price Bubbles Asian
Arbitrage Asset Price Bubbles
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dollar hedge
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Management
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online Education
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Proactive Asset
Management Proactive
China Fund 2008
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20 years tracking
currency, oil, commodities, gold price
Stem cell
innovations
OSA
pioneer Dr. Warren Huang
Sovereign Wealth Fund
Global Strategic
Management
Global Capital
Market
Global Economic
Systems
US recession
Policy Trilemma
www.osaglobalstrategicmanagement.com/index.html
Global
Strategic Solution Financial
Engineering US
inflationary recession
oil
price mechanism
ShanghaiShenzhen 300
Oil/Downstream
Price
China Hedge
Fund Bear
Stearn Fallout
Strategic investment
Banking
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Forecast Global
Capital Market Research
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management
China
Strategic Investment OSA
Sub-prime Default
models
China
QFII/QDII strategy Proactive
Dynamic Asset
Allocation
Supply Chain
Integration
US Financial System
Regulation Reform
US/China Mortgage
Loan Default Risks Workshops
UK/EU Mortgage Default
Risks Workshops
Banking Finance Reform
Strategic Change
Management
Global
Strategy:
USStrategy
China Strategy
EURO Strategy
TaiwanStrategy
AsianStrategy
Emerging Markets
Strategy
Proactive
Structural Strategic Solution: Forecast
months ahead last 20 years US/global
Housing mortgage default, Credit, Financial
Crisis
Operations Simulation
Analysis ,
The Causes, onset,
spread, recovery, early warning , and
consequences through Monetary, Economic,
Fiscal Policy Impact on Economic Recession,
Real Time Financial Market Prices Mechanism
and
Systemic Instability
Basel II credit,
Market, Operational Risks Early Warning
Healthcare:
Rose Garden
Aging and Cancer
prevention
Stem Cell
Proactive
structural economic systems integration, OSA
Macroeconomic
Simulation
Recession Strategy
|
|
by Proactive Structural Dynamic Optimal
monetary , economic, fiscal, trade policy ,
capital markets integration, Operation
Simulation Analysis ( OSA
):
Chinese
(中文)
Phase I Bubble
Burst Causes , monetary, economic, fiscal policy
impact on Global Housing, Equities,
Commodities, Bond, Derivatives Asset Prices
Bubble Burst Mechanism and Sub-prime on
Daily Prices Dynamics , Subprime, mortgage,
Credit crisis, Financial , Systemic Risks
impact on Recession and
Phase II Bubbles Burst
Impact on Recession and Recession Impact
on Crisis: Global Bubble Burst and recession impact
on banking,
credit, financial crisis and industrial
sectors assets demand, prices slump and operating
loss
Phase III China/US global economic stimulus impact on domestic business
investment, consumer demand, GDP, export and housing, stock, commodities, metals
market prices., recession recovery.
http://www.forbes.com/2009/06/09/recession-economy-cities-business-beltway-recovery-cities_slide_12.html?partner=yahoo
US best ,worst cities for recession recovery
Final
Phase Economic Stimulus Exit Strategy: the
what , why, how and timing of removing
excess liquidity, debt bubble prevent bubble
burst, and credit tightening and rate hikes
against double dip inflationary
recession
Optimal
proactive structural Global and US
Fed and Global central banks Monetary
Policy, achieving sustainable GDP and
Capital Market Growth, and Currency, price
stability without Inflation, Asset Prices
bubble OSA( Operations Simulation Analysis )
Performance Guidance and Control:
Integrating last 30 years global
housing, commodities, oil, equities asset
prices and consumer prices into monetary,
economic, fiscal policy impact on GDP and
prices stability , proactive
optimal control, presented top
24 global central
banks governor policy,
financial risk management , macro- financial
econometric conferences
Comment by
Wall Street Journal Market Beat- Blog
January
23, 2009 at
2:23 pm
We have been
through Phase I monetary, economic, fiscal
policy impact on Global Housing, Equities,
Commodities, Bond, Derivatives Asset Prices
Bubble Burst Mechanism and Sub-prime on
Daily Prices Dynamics , Subprime, mortgage,
Credit crisis, Financial , Systemic Risks
impact on Recession which causes housing
price down 19 %,trillions dollar financial
market loss, bankruptcy of Lehman, AIG
Fannie Mae Freddie, Merrill Lynch and
Citigroup with deep recession -6.2 % GDP in 4
Q 2008 and -5.7% for 1 Q 2009 and 8.9
%% unemployment
and now we in Phase II Global
deep recession ( Japan -15 % GDP, China 6.1
%, Korea -4.3 %, Taiwan -8.4 %, German
-8.2%, UK -7.4 %, Singapore - 19 %, EURO 4.3
%, Brazil -13.6 %, Russia - 6 %)impact on
Global banking, credit,
financial crisis and industrial sectors
demand, prices slump, export slump, and operating loss with
jobless rate at 9.5% and business,
consumer spending plunged over 2 %, despite
2 Q GDP shrink to -1 % pushed Dow to 9400 ,
SP to new high 1019
will drag stock price for 20 % with Dow
Jones retest 7000-8000 lows in W shape more
summer correction
resulted widening mortgage,( as April
foreclosure soared to 12 %, housing price
down 32 % from 2006 peak, credit card,
business loan loss will drag Bank of America
16 billion dollar loss even JP Morgan and
more banking, financials into widening loss
despite money supply growth double, to 8 % stock
market two month rally 50%, 8 trillion
dollar bail out stimulus give some
improvement in housing sales rebound, ISM
index, tax rebate only provide partial
support to consumer sentiment,( still down) but not
enough for raise consumer spending, retail
spending , home buyer 8000 tax credit and
lower interest rate payment cannot stop
soaring foreclosure rate to 12 %, with 11
month unsold inventory. capital, liquidity
still stay in banking finance system, with
improved profit and stock prices after bail
out and removing toxic asset,
Real economy and manufacturing still in deep
recession, excess capacity with record 67 %
utilization, falling demand and prices and
profit plunge continue into next week
as unemployment rate soared to 10 %by
yearend.. with 2 Q still facing -1 %
GDP contraction, -2 % for the second half
this year, while China only has 7.2 % GDP
growth first half and 8.5 % for the second half due to
export decline , despite 568 billion
economic stimulus, 33 % growth in fixed
investment, 13 % in retail sales ,with 50 % money
still in banking, finance, stock market ( up
80 %) fail to enter real economy
The rest of Asian economy facing similar
situation following US, China stocks rally
with over 40 % growth, even the economy
still in deep recession, with 50 % decline
in export for Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, Hong
Kong These huge Asian stock market
bubble will follow US/China market for
summer W shape correction ,
housing market continue to burst, with
housing price down 50 %
details on
http://www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm
http://www.osawh.com/recession.html
http://www.osawh.com/macro.html
http://www.osawh.com/SP500.htm
US GDP shrink -6.2 % 4 Q 2008 and
-5.7 % 1Q2009,
-1.0 % 2 Q 2009,
suffering deflation risks2009.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Economy-shrinks-at-38-percent-apf-14207818.html
China 4Q GDP plunged from 12 % to 6.8 % will
extend to first half around7.2%, gradually
pick up second half to 8 % 2009
China
Banking housing, stock markets follow US
housing price slump, recession, bear market
correction, drag China GDP plunged to 6.8 %
4Q 2008,will test 6 % first half 2009 and
stay above 8 % second half 2009 due to and
China 568 billion infrastructure and 10
industrial sector stimulus program maintain
2009 GDP at 7.5 % and stabilize stock
markets, Shanghai traded 1600-3500 through
09 until economy
softlanding
China is suffering from housing market
overheating, with 300 % gain in housing
prices still up only down 1.5 % March 2009
, F after China peoples Bank cut 2 % rate
fighting global economic recession, after
6 rate hikes, 16 bank deposit rat hike to
17.5 %. China raise its M2 money supply
growth 28% to maintain 2009 GDP of 8
%, with fixed investment up 35 %, consumer
sales up 15 %, GDP at 7.9% in , export down
25%, PPI down 6 %2Q 2009
very close to Dr. Warren Huang
panelist lecture prediction to
global investment banking,
derivatives market fund managers on
Asian
private equities,
leverage finance acquisition on distressed
assets summit , Feb
16- 17, Hong, Kong by Euromoney
China
Forex, Energy, Metal Derivatives, Summit Credit, Financial
Crisis, Recession Risks Derivatives
Hedging 2009
Conference, Pudong, China,
March, 2009
by EUROMONEY
predicted Dow Jones rebound from 6500 to
94 00 in bear market rebound, US economic L
shape recovery , China Shanghai index
rebound in Nov. 2008 due to
Economic stimulus
Proactive Structural Trillion Dollar
Recession Hedging, supply chain cost
reduction,Multiclass Asset,
Derivatives Allocation Strategy
by Dr.
Warren Huang website:
www.osawh.com
Hyatt
Regency,
Pudong, Shanghai, Mar24- 25, 2009
and
Global/China
multiclass (Oil,
commodity, Equities, Bond, Housing Asset
pricing and allocation
by
World Renown Proactive
Structural Asset Pricing pioneer Dr. Warren
Huang
Post-
Conference Master Class
Strategic Multi-class Asset Allocation
Workshop, Terrapinn
Chinese
Proactive
Structural Multiclass Asset Prices Mechanism
and China/Global
Fund World,
Asset Allocation
2008,- 2009
by
Dr. Warren Huang, Pioneer OSA Global
Strategic Management
Proactive Recession
Strategy
Shangri-La Hotel, Pudong, Shanghai, Mar 4-
6, 2008
Reservation
for your in house
workshop
osawhh@sina.com/
wh3928@yahoo.com
warned on Yahoo finance blog and Wall Street Journal market beat blog earlier last year the Housing market slump drag economic into deep recession continue into 2009 , resulted trillion dollar banking, finance mortgage, investment loss, plunging consumer spending, ISM index plunge below 36, will drag IT industry sales and earning , stock price 50- 70 % bear matket correction. Recent market rally over 20 %, with renewed speculation over strong IT, high tech are extremely overpriced, ignored sales, earning plunge 50 % through 2009. NASDAQ MUST PLUNGE TO 1150- 1200 TEST RECESSION LOW in the month ahead. details on www.osawh.com/macro.html www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm www.osawh.com/SP500.htm
Predicted
by Dr. Warren Huang, pioneer
of Proactive Global Asset
Pricing Mechanism ,
June 2007 , Beijing, Wall
Street Journal Economic,
Market Beat
Blog Aug.2007 that
US and
Global Housing price
bubble burst, prices plunge
30 % into 2009
rate cuts, bail out, provide
banks, finance excess
liquidity will not, can nto
stop housing price slump and
recession, (US 4Q 2008 GDP
contract 6.2 % jobless rate
at 8.1 % Feb 2009 continue
into 1 Q 2009 . with
Arr2009 20 city Schiller
price index down 32%
from
2006 peak
http://www.slideshare.net/hblodget/october-case-shiller-home-price-index-presentation
), drag US
and global economy
into 1980
style deep double dip
recession stocks
bond, oil, commodities,
metals ,Derivative Asset
Prices Bubbles Burst with 50
-70
% Price Correction
Cause Credit, Financial
Crisis and Economic
Recession, ( As Dow
Jones, SP 500, NASDAQ drag
global stock indices plunged
more than 50 % into 2002
recession low ,( Dow Jones test
6000-
7000, NASDAQ test
1100-
1250, S&P test
550- 700 low, oil
price plunged 50
-70
% from
147 to
30,Gas
oil from
1300 to
500
, corn from 800 to 350,
cotton from 80 to 44 )as Fed
INDICATE that global
economy enter deep
recession
through 2009, despite
rate cuts to zero, US700
billion and ECB 2.3 trillion
bail out fail to
stabilize credit crisis
, there
is no economic recovery till
late 2009, with US
trillions dollar mortgage
MBS, bail out and
infrastructure job creation
program. US spend 8 trillion
banking, finance bailout,
1.2 trillion buying MBS,
T-Bond to cut mortgage rate
below 5 %, one trillion buy
toxic asset, 1.2 trillion
onbuy fighting crisis ,
recession pointed out by
Nobel prize winner Krugman http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/106403/The-8-Trillion-Bailout
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/05/opinion/05krugman.html?_r=2
, hopefully OBAMA/s 775
billion dollar economic
stimulus plan to create 4
million jobs in the next two
years will pull economy out
of recession and cutting
mounting job loss
http://change.gov/agenda/economy_agenda/
Dr. Warren Huang,
Pioneer of proactive structural
simulation of Global Housing,
Credit, Financial Crisis, Recession
, causes, onset, recovery, early
warning and impact on Economy,
housing, equities, currency,
commodity, asset and derivative
prices , predicted year, month ahead
of crisis and recession capitalized
on trillion dollar recession supply
chain costs , investment profit
while avoided trillion
dollar loss in housing MBS, CMBS,
CDO, CDS investment
and hedging loss
He will be the keynote speaker on
2009 US recession, credit, financial
crisis , capital markets outlook and
China Economic, capital market
outlook responding to Infrastructure
Program to boost domestic demand in
fight
Dr.
Warren Huang
(黃華南博士)
Pioneer,
proactive structural dynamic global
inflation, macro economy, daily
financial markets interest rates,
currency, stock, bond, derivatives,
housing, commodities, oil asset
pricing and risks valuation markets
fundamentals price mechanism,
accurately warned on Wall Street
Journal Market beat Blog Sept.19,
2007
and Mar 5,
2008 masterclass workshop China
fund world 2008, Pudong,
China to Goldman Sach managing
directors JPM, UBS and 150 China
QDII/QFII fund managers
that
US Fed
aggressive rate cuts drag dollar to
1.53-1.65 EURO, 95- 108 Yen,
economic stimulus boost consumer
spending on gasoline and jet fuel
summer, demand, driving gasoline ,
heating oil to
415, oil price to 121-145,
commodity price double, will peak
out as US dollar rebound follow Fed
ending rate cuts cycle
, can not stop
sub-prime crisis spreading,
regional housing price slump 30-50
% and credit crisis, crunch crisis
continue through 2009 drag economy
into 2009 repeating 1980 double
dip inflationary recession resulted
trillion housing and stock market
loss and US, global stock indices
and oil, commodities , metals price
bubble burst bear market 50-70 % ,
Dow Jones test 6000- 7000 NASDAQ
PLUNGE
testing 1100-1250- and high fliers
(GOOG, PTR, AAPL) , IT, retail
stocks facing
50-- 70 % correction,
with banking, finance, housing share
price plunge 70- 90 %, dollar
making to new low 85- 90 Yen,
commodity prices doubled, and
bubble burst plunge 50-70 % % in
recession
widening bond , CDS spread and
failure in MBS/CDO,
Bear Stearn 30
billion dollar MBS hedge fund
and government steps rescue, Lehman
bankruptcy, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac
AIG bail out, despite Fed
rate cuts . , oil price plunge from
147 to 40, copper plunged from 350
to 115, corn from 600 to 350, He
also warned top global QFII
management on Peking Univ June 2007
International Financial Engineering
Conference that China
overheated housing, stock market
wealth gain resulted inflation over
8.7 % will lead to China Peoples
Bank credit tightening to remove
excessive liquidity, Banking
housing, stock markets follow US
housing price slump, recession, bear
market correction, and China 568
billion infrastructure program
maintain 2009 GDP at 8 % and
stabilize stock markets, Shanghai
traded 1500- 2100 through 2008- 09
early 2009 until
economy softlanding
China is suffering from housing
market overheating, with 300 % gain
in housing prices still up , FIXED
investment up 26 %, consumer
spending still up 16 GDP still up,
CPI plunged 1.5% , PPI plunged 4.5%
in Feb 2009 , suffering deflation
first half 2009.China
Banking housing, stock markets
follow US housing price slump,
recession, bear market correction,
drag China GDP plunged to 6.8 % 4Q
2008,will test 6 % first half 2009
and stay above 8 % second half 2009
due to and China 568 billion
infrastructure and 10 industrial
sector stimulus program maintain
2009 GDP at 7.5 % and stabilize
stock markets, Shanghai traded 1500-
2100 through 09
until economy
softlanding rate cut
China is suffering from housing
market overheating, with 300 % gain
in housing prices only down 1.2%
China peoples Bank cut 2 % rate
after 6 rate hikes, 16 bank
deposit rat hike to 17.5 %. China
raise its M2 money supply growth
from 15 %to 25 % Apr 2009 and
rate cuts to maintain GDP at
8 %and 10 industrial sector
stimulus program maintain 2009 GDP
at 7.5 % and stabilize stock
markets, Shanghai traded 1500- 2800
through 09
until economy softlanding
Do not miss this
proactive
structural price
mechanism based strategic
financial modeling and risks valuation,
simulation for
investment ,
trillion dollar
recession hedging strategy
workshops series by
OSA proactive solution pioneer Dr.Warren
Huang
millions
of global /China top fund managers and
investment management teams bring their
management/s operating problems into our
strategic fund allocation and wealth
management workshops. take home billion
dollar proactive structural solution,
avoided trillion dollar housing, stock
market loss due betting on the wrong side of
interest rates and bull/bear market trend,
ready to implement
Dr./Prof. Warren
Huang
黃華南
博士Founder
OSA Global Strategic Management, San
Francisco, USA Pioneer, Proactive Structural
China/Global Trade Finance Strategy
will be offering
Master Class
Proactive structural simulation forecast of
S&P 500 index futures and component stocks
investment workshop,
US/China 2008 Housing,
Oil, Commodities, Equities Price Bubbles
Overheating, inflation, Currency Trilemma
OSA:
5 -Day Workshop :
Global Interest rate, Dollar, Stock Indices,
Oil, Gold, Metals and Housing, Equities
Bubbles price Forecast , Long-Short strategy
impact on Stocks Prices, Futures,
Derivatives Prices Market Forces Mechanism
Simulation, Forecast, ETF Risks Hedging
, Investment Strategy
5 Day Global Oil,
Metal, Agricultural
Commodity Market Prices Forecasts and
Strategic Structural Trade Finance
SCF Supply Chain and Value Chain
Optimization , Basel
lI
Risks Management Masterclass workshop,
in-house at
your office at your convenient time
Worshop
Goal:
structured to provide the latest
proactive structural commodity market
pricing mechanism simulation and
quantitative, fundamental strategic
investment decision tool for global
import/export and real time daily
commodity, raw material trading,
capitalize on the emerging NY, Chicago,
China energy, metal, feed grain commodity
markets pricing , real time trading strategy
and Basel II financing credit default,
markets price, operational risks early
warning management maximize value chain
profit at minimum risks
Workshop Mission:
•Provide proactive structural China/global
trade and commodity markets, finance price
mechanism, analyze, forecast, capitalize on
the emerging commodities ( oil, energy,
metals, feed grain price bull/bear market
trend, risks trend achieve sustainable
profit , while minimize risks• Provide the
What, Why, How and timing of your
China/global strategic commodity trade
financing to minimize supply chain costs,
maximize value chain profits
website
www.osawh.com
email
osawhh@sina.com
/
wh3928@yahoo.com
Over 30 years OSA Global Proactive
Structural Strategic Import/Export Trade and
Real Time Commodity Pricing, Finance Basel
II Risks Systems Simulation and Strategic
Restructure, Reengineering Management for WTO
multilateral, bilateral trade impact
analysis and global competitive pricing and
market shares value chain optimization,
risks management WTO trade
negotiation strategy,
He will offer the following workshops to
the banking, finance, real estate
industries.
5- Day Financial Crisis Events in India
---- Proactive Structural analysis
Indian Housing bubbles early warning in
Global Recession Recovery workshop
5 Day CEO , CFO, traders, fund managers
Proactive Structural Oil. Commodity,
Currency, Housing Multi-Class Asset Pricing,
Allocation Long-Short Strategy in-house
Workshop
2009
Proactive Structural
Asian
( India, Hong
Kong, Taiwan, Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore,
Vietnam )/China/US/European
QFII Strategic Investment Banking/Capital
Markets
Research
and Decisions Operations Simulation
Analysis (OSA) Workshops
5 Day 2009 China Macroeconomic, Housing ,
equities bubble control and Default Crisis
Early Warning
5 Day 2009 US
Macroeconomic, Housing , equities bubble
control and Default Crisis Early Warning
5 Day 2009 UK
Macroeconomic, Housing , equities bubble
control and Default Cri3928sis Early
Warning
US Stocks plunge in correction to housing
market slump, ECB hold interest rate cut,
Dollar gain strength due to drop in March
trade deficit by 5 billion and Oil prices
, inflation worry continue
Comment by
- May 7, 2008 at
7:37 pm
Wall Street Journal Market beat Blog comment
by Dr. Warren Huang Sept. 19, 2007
Fed is pleasing every one in the Wall Street
and global capital and housing markets by
offering surprise half point cut,
even Greenspan in 2001 dare not to do it
when the oil price was only 19 dollar and
gold price below 400.
Dow Jones shot up 350 points heading for
record 14000 again , certainly will boost
the housing prices ( July housing price
already up 5 %),and It cut mortgage rate and
lending cost by half point.
bail out the sub-prime rate reset cost, will
temporarily cut mortgage default rate (
according to my housing prices and default
rate model)
but it will led to dollar plunge to new low
1.40 , it will hit 1.50 sometime next year,
Oil price already celebrating the rate cut,
by shooting to 82.4 all time high and
heading for 85-90, gold already 735, soybean
at 945, wheat to 870., eventually will
spread into core inflation.
As Fed job only focus on inflation ( core
inflation rate exclude energy and food
price) and unemployment it ignore housing,
stocks, commodities asset prices bubbles.
But sooner or later, the current stocks
prices will not be sustainable, start to
plunge, it will drag the housing prices, and
led tomore default, the burst of next
housing bubble, can not be solved by any
rate cuts
Greenspan was much luckier than Benanke, he
could go ahead with full steam rate cut, but
we will be facing inflationary recession
ahead
detail can be found on
www.osawh.com/riskm.html
Comment by Warren Huang - September 18, 2007
at
5:55 pm
Dr. Huang predicted on Wall Street energy,
economic, market beat blog July oil price
soared to 80, Dow Jones plunged to12600 and
global stocks plunged 20 %
Dr. Huang accurately predicted on this
web page since June 2007 and lecture to
Peking University , China int'l financial
engineering risk management conference that
US and global housing bubbles bubble burst,
billions dollar loan mortgage and hedging
fund default betting on the wrong side of
interest rates resulted global stock
indices are extremely overpriced, will
follow US Dow Jones, NASDAQ for 10- 20 %
correction due to soaring oil, metal prices,
inflation and continue rate hikes
into 2007 slowdown, housing bubbles
sub-prime and jumbo mortgage credit crunch,
default risks will give up all 2006 gain in
current correction, US money supply growth
already doubled to 6.2 % from last year
3.5%, due to housing, stock market wealth
gain, recent US Fed 0.5 % discount rate
cut and ECB pumped 400 billion dollar into
the banking systems will further inflate
the stocks, housing, oil, commodities asset
bubble and highly inflationary and continue
into second stage correction with US dollar
plunge( give up all 2006 gain)
What is Global Strategic OSA for
government, banking, finance, business
performance and its achievements
OSA pioneer
Dr. Warren Huang CV
, extend
his Ph.D Thesis Moon
landing guidance and control methodology
"Nonlinear Adaptive Kalman Filtering and
Stochastic control of 4 variable
differential equations reactor system"to
integrating
Proactive Structural
Dynamic macro economic control into
industrial sectors microeconomic supply,
demand price mechanism and daily capital
markets asset prices for government,
banking, finance, business strategic
decisions Operations Simulation Analysis
(OSA) , supported by goal
, mission, performance tracking,
optimization, achieving optimal monetary
policy, growth, prices stability and
sustainable profit, market share growthIt
helps 80 countries government ,banking,
finance business fighting last 20 years
uncertain, unknown futures
Thousands decision
simulators integrating monetary, economic
policy into
daily capital market
prices, business performance, capitalize
years, months ahead of last 20 year
opportunities and crisis , change personal
life, change business and world decision
making making personal,
corporate dreams come true
Dr.
Warren Huang CV
Dr. Warren
Huang English publications, speeches
Education
reform innovation, Proactive decision
analysis changes life, organization and
change the world
Global Energy Strategy
New generation MBA
/CPA/ CFA
Life Education
year round rose garden
Proactive Structural
Dynamic Asset Price
Basel II Risks
Management
Credit risks
market risks
Operational risks
4 millions
executives , institutional, HNW
investors from 60 countries
bring their management/personal
investment problem to our
strategic workshops, take home
billion dollars proactive
strategic solution ready to
implement ,
telling you the what , why , how
and timing of fighting this year
unknown, uncertain markets and
capitalize the emerging markets
trend opportunities, risks
Dr. Warren
Huang Partial lists of
English Workshops Papers
Dr. Warren
Huang has been keynote speakers
for top 100 global central banks
governors, financial crisis and
risk management , conferences
and session chairman and master
class workshops
leaders in Asian Finance,
Capital markets, Oil
upstream/downstream strategy in
1998-2006, He offered thousands
lectures, commentary for China
15 cities, Taipei, San
Francisco, TV, radio 30 million
institutional, HNW investors on
China/Global strategic fund,
wealth management, asset
allocation since 1994.
rren Huang latest update for
www.osawh.com / www.osaglobalstrategicmanagement.com
web pages on proactive
structural for global
banking, finance, enterprises
strategic investment, supply
chain demand chain applications
visited by 4 million global
executives since 1998
contact;
wh3928@yahoo.com
/
osawhh@sina.com
2008
年中美宏觀產業調控對利率匯率股指能源金屬期貨金融房產上市公司股價
及衍生工具價格預測投資避險策略五日研討會
舊金山台北上海
World renowned global proactive
strategic investment, supply
chain. risks management decision
Operations
Simulation Analysis
(OSA
)
pioneer, Dr. Warren Huang
achieved impossible
mission in
integrating
moon landing guidance control
problem solving into in two
masters hands controlling
unknown, uncertain
future in global
macro-economy, daily financial
market prices, business
performances,
maximize risks
adjusted return"
CEO/CFO Proactive Strategic
Decisions Workshop
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Endless success stories of creative innovative breakthrough
Proactive structural solution to government, multinationals, banking, finance, SOE, SME Global Strategic Investment, Risks Early Warning, Supply Demand Chain
Dr. Huang extend his PhD. Thesis
moon landing guidance control,
problem solving
fighting the unknown, uncertain
futures in proactive structural
global strategic investment
banking, supply
chain, risk management and
process operations optimal
control
during his 30 years
development, implementation
thousands proactive global asset(
equities, housing, bond,
commodities)
prices mechanism
decision
simulators for US Mobil,
AMOCO, Phillips Petroleum China,
Taiwan government, hundreds
state
enterprises,
banking, finance, capital
markets reform, change
management and thousands
CEO/executives
strategic
change
management
training workshops. He
predicted months,
years ahead of last 20 years
Asian,
US, European financial, energy
equities, housing prices bubbles
burst
crisis,
through tracking central banks
monetary, fiscal, economic
policy
impact on macro-economic
control, daily interest rate,
currency, stock indices, ( right
master hands)
and 20 industrial sectors
market demand, commodities
futures, derivatives
prices
(
left master ) .
Patented in US Oil & Gas
Journal, 1980-83,
advanced control and information
handbook, 1991-2005
Thousands
articles published to 80
countries, invited to speak to
50 countries central bank
governors, financial investment,
risks management and chemical
engineering, information
management conferences.
with 4
millions global executives
visited
his
www.osawh.com website
since 1998
.
He warned months ahead on
numerous conference,
his
website and thousands of
published articles about 1990,
2000, 2003 global asset bubbles
prices overheating and
thousands interview, lectures
for China, Taiwan, US 15 cities
TV, radio fund managers,
investors tracking 1994 in
China, on China runaway
inflation, macro economic
control and 2000
in US on IT bubbles burst and
2003 in Singapore, Shanghai,
San Francisco, on China,US
housing bubble
overheating resulted 17 rate
hikes, China A shares bear
markets and 2006 bull markets
overheating.
He predicted to hundreds
multinational oil, banking,
finance CEO in Beijing
China Natural gas, ( Feb 2005)
Oil market
(Nov. 2005)
conferences 2005 that oil prices
soared from
56 to 78, record
metals prices in 2006 and again
Dec,
2006 to Taipei financial
executives that oil prices
soared from 50 to 65 2007,
US facing inflationary slowdown
drag
global housing, stock markets
correction 2007.
He taught thousand Taiwan,
Tsinghwa, Tunghai university
students industrial economics,
global strategic management,
chemical engineering
process design, control
tracking 100 countries macro-economic,
interest, currency, and process
optimization.
He also lectured Peking,
Tsinghua, Fudan, Zhejiang,
Shanghai Finance and Economics,
Huazhong Science, Tech
universities
economic
management, financial
engineering, capital markets
reform innovation
His goal,
mission, performance oriented
online adaptive education has
trained numerous new generation
China/Tawain / US CPA/CFA/CFA
for
undergraduates and senior
executives, integrating
proactive global strategic
financial decision analysis
into financial, cost,
derivatives accounting,
investment banking, global
economy, business, equities,
derivatives research
4 million
global government, banking,
finance, enterprises executives,
academic visitors
By top down two master hands controlling global asset prices mechanism pioneer Dr. Warren Huang (黃華南博士) Pioneer, proactive structural dynamic global inflation, macro economy, daily financial markets interest rates, currency, stock, bond, derivatives, housing, commodities, oil asset pricing and risks valuation markets fundamentals price mechanism, accurately warned on Wall Street Journal Market beat Blog Sept.19, 2007 and Mar 5, 2008 masterclass workshop China fund world 2008, Pudong, China to Goldman Sach managing directors JPM, UBS and 150 China QDII/QFII fund managers that US Fed aggressive rate cuts drag dollar to 1.53-1.65 EURO, 95- 108 Yen, economic stimulus boost consumer spending on gasoline and jet fuel summer, demand, driving gasoline , heating oil to 415, oil price to 121-145, commodity price double, will peak out as US dollar rebound follow Fed ending rate cuts cycle , can not stop sub-prime crisis spreading, regional housing price slump 30-50 % and credit crisis, crunch crisis continue through 2009 drag economy into 2009 double dip deep recession resulted trillion housing and stock market loss and US, global stock indices bear market 50 - 70 % correction , Dow Jones test 6500-7000- NASDAQ PLUNGE testing 1250- 1500 and high fliers (GOOG, PTR, AAPL) , IT, retail stocks facing correction, with banking, finance, housing share price plunge 70- 90 %, dollar making to new low 90 Yen, commodity prices doubled, and bubble burst plunge 50 % in recession widening bond , CDS spread and failure in MBS/CDO, Bear Stearn 30 billion dollar MBS hedge fund and government steps rescue Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac bail out, despite Fed rate cuts . He also warned top global QFII management on Peking Univ June 2007 International Financial Engineering Conference that China overheated housing, stock market wealth gain resulted inflation over 8.7 % will lead to China Peoples Bank credit tightening to remove excessive liquidity, Banking housing, stock markets follow US housing price slump 30- 50 %, US - 6.1 GDP contraction, and -10 to - 20 % contraction for Asian countries deep recession, bear market correction, with Shanghai A testing 1700 rebound to 3450 in 2009 overheated in the first half due to 568 billion economic stimulus, increased money supply from 15 % to 28 %, fixed investment from 22 to 33 %., oil price rebound from 33 to 72 summer 2009, and plunge to 55, due to soaring jobless rate and falling housing price resulted deep recession continue through 2009.
US stock market 30 % V- shape rebound from March 2009 low, leading to global stock price bubble appears again ( with Taiwan, China , Hong Kong, most serious) speculating recession recovery due to overoptimistic over economic recovery by China/US stimulus package, are facing bubble burst in summer 2009 correction due to disappointing U shape slow recession recovery
Strategic PGFCR : Proactive Global Housing, Credit, Financial Crisis, Recession Operations Simulation) Forecast, complete coverage of years, months, ahead of lat 30 years and current housing, equities, commodities , MBS, ABS asset prices bubbles formation, boom and bust, early warning of derivatives hedging resulted financial crisis, avoided betting on the wrong side of investment resulted trillion dollar loss, deep recession and its impact through global macro, financial, industrial, trade economy integration and impact on daily capital market asset price mechanisms Do not miss Dr. Warren Huang lectures, panelist speakers in Feb, 2009 Hong Kong Provate equities Merger/Acquisition financing summit on Monetary, regulary ,economic stimulus policy impact on China/US distressed asset Acquisition and financing
Comment by Warren Huang Wall Street Journal Market Beat- November 17, 2008 at 4:50 pmand in March 2009 and on monetary, econoic stimulus policy impact on China/US economic, financial market , forex, currency commodities, equities derivatives price mechanism and Trillion Dollar Recession Hedge, supply chain cost reduction Optimal long-short ,ultra short strategy
Phase I monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on Global Housing, Equities, Commodities, Bond, Derivatives Asset Prices Bubble Burst Mechanism and Sub-prime on Daily Prices Dynamics , Subprime, mortgage, Credit crisis, Financial , Systemic Risks impact on Recession and
Phase II Global recession impact on banking, credit, financial crisis and industrial sectors demand, prices slump and operating loss
for June on Peking Univ. Int. financial risk management conference, Beijing , June and Sept 2007 on Wall Street Journal market beat blog that US housing price slump 30 % continue into 2009, drag economic into deep recession, global stocks into bear market 50- 70 % correction , commodities, energy, raw material, products 50- 70 % correction
Phase III China/US global economic stimulus impact on domestic business investment, consumer demand, GDP, export and housing, stock, commodities, metals market prices., recession recovery.
Based on my 30 years proactive structural simulation of last 30 years global monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on inflation, interest rateas, currency, commodities, equities, bond, housing asset prices, It correlation constant ot 0.95, error of 3.5 %,
accurately predicted last 30 years asset price boom and bust, and current US housing prices bubble burst resulted equities, commodity, oil, asset price 50- 70 % plunge, asset bubble burst, drag economy into recession details on www.osawh.com/recession.html www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm www.osawh.com/commody.html www.osawh.com/SP500.htm